Rabo play-off run-in

First topic message reminder :

Current table:
Position Club Points
1 Leinster 68
2 Munster 63
3 Ulster 60
4 Ospreys 52
5 Glasgow 51

Remaining fixtures:

Leinster:
@ Ospreys L(poss win)
v Treviso W
@ Ulster L
v Edinburgh W

Munster:
v Glasgow W
@ Connacht W
@ Edinburgh W
v Ulster W

Ulster:
v Connacht W
@ Glasgow L(poss win)
v Leinster W
@ Munster L

Ospreys:
v Leinster W(poss loss)
@ Dragons W
@ Zebre W
v Connacht W

Glasgow:
v Treviso W
@ Munster L
v Ulster W(poss loss)
v Edinburgh W
@ Treviso W
v Zebre W


Predicted table w/out bonus points:
Position Club Points
1 Munster 79
2 Leinster 76
3 Glasgow 71
4 Ulster 68
5 Ospreys 64

I think Glasgow will fear no one and even without the home semi could win it. Have they not beaten all the teams above then this year?

TJ wrote:Should Edinburgh field a weak team for the greater good of scottish rugby?

have they not been doing that all season?

Riskysports wrote:

TJ wrote:Should Edinburgh field a weak team for the greater good of scottish rugby?

have they not been doing that all season?

Ohhhhhhh - saucer of cream for Mr Risky!

 

Looks like Leinster will finish top. Even if they lose to Ulster in Raven Hill they should be able to beat Edinburgh who have nothing left to play for.

Would be nice to get a trophy.

I know, it must be really tough being a Leinster supporter...  

IanBru wrote:I know, it must be really tough being a Leinster supporter...  

Hey, not bad being a Glasgow fan right now either. Playing some really nice rugby.

Guns , it is grand right enough. Difference between us and you is you have lots of trophies. We have only 1 - the 1872 cup - which we win annually against the MFLs( Metrosexual Festival Luvvies). We need more trophies so that is why we will be winning the rabo this year !   

I wouldnt be too upset at all if Glasgow won. They have played much much better rugby than Leinster so in that respect probably deserve it. Hopefully they make it to the final.

Hmmmmmmmmmmm

Imagine if this happened:

Edinburgh BEAT Glasgow which seriously messes up the Glasgow playoff hopes

but

Edinburgh then go and beat either Munster or Leinster and help Glasgow out!

If Glasgow get the home semi and win it and Leinster lose theirs, where would the final be held because by my reckoning Scotstoun isn't big enough to hold the final?
Murrayfield isn't available as they've torn up the pitches, Pittodrie's pitch is too small, Hampden isn't available as they're tearing up the pitches and playing at Celtic Park or Ibrox is dangerous as it would start to suggest bias which is something Glasgow really cannot afford to do.

123456789 wrote:If Glasgow get the home semi and win it and Leinster lose theirs, where would the final be held because by my reckoning Scotstoun isn't big enough to hold the final?
Murrayfield isn't available as they've torn up the pitches, Pittodrie's pitch is too small, Hampden isn't available as they're tearing up the pitches and playing at Celtic Park or Ibrox is dangerous as it would start to suggest bias which is something Glasgow really cannot afford to do.

Firhill for thrills?

Under the Pro12's rules, the final has to be held in a stadium of minimum 18,000 capacity, which unfortunately rules out both Firhill and the 7s-converted Scotstoun.

Considering that it's being used for the Commonwealth Games 7s, and with Rangers' last home game being four weeks before the Pro12 final, I'd suggest that Ibrox is the natural place to host the final.

123456789 wrote:If Glasgow get the home semi and win it and Leinster lose theirs, where would the final be held because by my reckoning Scotstoun isn't big enough to hold the final?
Murrayfield isn't available as they've torn up the pitches, Pittodrie's pitch is too small, Hampden isn't available as they're tearing up the pitches and playing at Celtic Park or Ibrox is dangerous as it would start to suggest bias which is something Glasgow really cannot afford to do.

If hampden and Murrayfeild really are out then it would have to be Ibrox or Parkhead

That would be a major disadvantage for Glasgow. Or at least, they would lose a big part of home advantage!

Would they be able to sell out Ibrox or Parkhead at such short notice though? It would be pretty damning for the Pro12 if its "Grand Final" was held in a half (or less) full Stadium.
I'd like to see a system implemented whereby the Final is held in different cities regardless of League positions, that way we could have complete neutrality and the game would spread. I also think it would be commercially viable and would allow more time for ticket sales and decent advertising especially with the Sky deal, a big commercial final in Cardiff, Dublin, Glasgow, Edinburgh, Milan, Rome, or elsewhere with a large stadium in one of the four participant nations, would be a huge commercial opportunity and would surely rival the Aviva in terms of coverage.

123456789 wrote:Would they be able to sell out Ibrox or Parkhead at such short notice though? It would be pretty damning for the Pro12 if its "Grand Final" was held in a half (or less) full Stadium.
I'd like to see a system implemented whereby the Final is held in different cities regardless of League positions, that way we could have complete neutrality and the game would spread. I also think it would be commercially viable and would allow more time for ticket sales and decent advertising especially with the Sky deal, a big commercial final in Cardiff, Dublin, Glasgow, Edinburgh, Milan, Rome, or elsewhere with a large stadium in one of the four participant nations, would be a huge commercial opportunity and would surely rival the Aviva in terms of coverage.

I'd hate that,playoffs take away from the achievement of topping the league as it is,at least the way the current playoffs are structured there is a tangible reward for finishing 1st.Change it to a neutral venue for the final and you only need to aim for the top 2.

IanBru wrote:Under the Pro12's rules, the final has to be held in a stadium of minimum 18,000 capacity, which unfortunately rules out both Firhill and the 7s-converted Scotstoun.

Considering that it's being used for the Commonwealth Games 7s, and with Rangers' last home game being four weeks before the Pro12 final, I'd suggest that Ibrox is the natural place to host the final.

If it came to it, could a temp stand be put on the vacant end at Firhill?

If Glasgow make it to the Final and Ulster don't, come to Ravenhill, proper rugby stadium, easy to get to from Glasgow, guaranteed much better atmosphere.

I suspect it would be ibrox, as they're using it for the commonwealth 7s so could see it as doing a test run. Plus it is smaller than parkhead.

Alternatively the pro 12 could have common sense and leg let them play at a sold out 12000 strong Scotstoun, which would be jumping.

The thing is RDW, in the final 50% of your tickets have to go to the opposition. Thats why the capacity rule for the final is the way it is.

For a start, if you were playing Ulster or Leinster 6000 tickets would probably not satisfy the demand for away supporters and there would be a strong likelihood that if the Glasgow allocation of tickets go on general sale opposition fans would get into them. Secondly, it seems a shame that Glasgow would only get 6000 tickets for their own fans when they can get 10000 for Edinburgh.

Small grounds are great for atmosphere, but can you imagine the complaints from all the extra Weegies that were at the Edinburgh game if they couldn't get tickets for this one? 6000 and probably they all go to season ticket holders.

The atmosphere would be better but it's a big opportunity to market the team which would be lost by really only having enough tickets to supply the fan base that already exists.

Ah-hem ! Are we not getting a tad ahead of ourselves here? Lets win all our games and see where we are. 3 games to go and all !

Notch - was sayjng scotstoun could be used for the semi - you'd definitely need ibrox for the final.

Boys, we did this last year, remember, "If we beat Leinster where will....."  
Just concentrate on slaughtering the effeminates.
Then the next game.
Then the next one.
Then log on to TripAdvisor, LateRooms etc.
No premature Jock elations as my English friends often advise me.  

Also, looks like Barry McGuigan has left in a huff. Still, at the moment I think he's sixth or seventh choice for a centre berth and with only three games (for definite) left. It couldn't have been easy having full contact training with Bluto and Bob Harley every day and no chance of a game at the end of the week.

Just saying, but I think it would need to be Ibrox as Parkhead will be getting spruced up for the Glasgow games opening ceremony no?

I cannot believe that I just overheard the unmistakable sound of Glasgow fans counting their chickens. We got spanked twice by the Blues in the Heineken - both games in which we conspired thoroughly to beat ourselves. Have we not learned anything?

OK, OK, realism to 'ON'.

We'll win our last three matches, but just barely (with some nervous performances from previously solid players like Gray, Strauss and Fusaro), and we'll miss out on a home semi by a single point, meeting Munster again at Thomond.

On the way to Limerick a sink hole will swallow up the Warriors team bus. Against a recently-defeated-by-Toulon Red Army, who will be angry as hell, we'll have to put out whatever players we can scrape together - basically Byron McGuigan at hooker, Lee Jones at tight-head, and the dross from Premier 1 who haven't gone off to Magaluf for the summer.

George Carlin wrote:I cannot believe that I just overheard the unmistakable sound of Glasgow fans counting their chickens. We got spanked twice by the Blues in the Heineken - both games in which we conspired thoroughly to beat ourselves. Have we not learned anything?

Exactly. have people forgotten that we would have had a home semi final last year had we not lost to the Scarlets in a match that we just did not turn up for. Both this weekends match and the away trip to Treviso are banana skins. Hopefully the players have learnt from last year to take each game as it comes. There was lots of speculation about where we would play home semi's and final last year and look where that ended up!

I saw an interview with Kellock yesterday where he said he thinks last year they maybe peaked too early, whereas this year they are coming into form at the right time.

I'd probably agree with that - Glasgow haven't played nearly as well this year as they did last year but are slowly getting back to that level and have played very well the past few games.

Leinster v Ulster/Ospreys

Glasgow v Munster

Hope you are correct - there are big gams to be played though !

This week

Glasgow v Embra

Glasgow win no BP. Move ahead of Munster on games won (both 68 points)

Leinster 74
Glasgow 68
Munster 68
Ulster 65


Next week

Ulster v Leinster
A fit and firing Leinster get the upper hand on a depleted but game Ulster side in Ravenhill


Embra v Munster

Bruised and battered Munster hold out for the win in Murrayfield. Just. No BP.


Treviso v Glasgow

Glasgow outclass a lacklustre Treviso side but only score 3 tries

Leinster 78 (and uncatchable)
Glasgow 72
Munster 72
Ulster 66


Final week

Glasgow v Zebre

Glasgow run riot at home running in tries for fun v Zebre 5 points


Leinster v Embra

Leinster run riot at home running in tries for fun v Embra 5 points

Munster v Ulster

Ulster side with backs to the wall edge a Munster side who will end up 3rd win lose or draw.

Leinster 83
Glasgow 77
Munster 73
Ulster 70


Well....... Could happen

Looks like the Ospreys will miss out. Our woeful away record and the lack of a bp win last Sunday doomed us all. Good luck the rest....

As of this evening:

Team/Played/Won/Drawn/Lost/For/Against/Bonus Pts/Points

1 Leinster 20 15 1 4 517 319 12 74
2 Glasgow 20 16 0 4 392 293 5 69
3 Munster 20 15 0 5 466 308 8 68
4 Ulster 20 14 0 6 431 280 9 65
5 Ospreys 20 12 1 7 499 338 10 60

A win against Treviso and a 5 pointer at home to Zebre will guarantee Glasgow second place. The trip to Treviso is never straightforward and the Italians still have to secure their European place, so that is by no means a gimme. They could still come top as well if Leinster slip up in one of their games.

Ulster are going to be fighting for their lives, with Ospreys breathing down their necks in those last 2 games, I would not fancy playing them in the mood they will be in.

Basically it is all still to play for. All games need to be contested and won first and foremost, bonus points are an extra. Things will be a bit clearer after the next round

Right then, so we're looking at:

Leinster: Ulster (away, May 2), Edinburgh (home, May 10).
Munster: Edinburgh (away May 3), Ulster (home, May 10).
Ulster: Leinster (home, May 2), Munster (away, May 10)
Warriors: Treviso (away, May 2), Zebre (home, May 10).
Ospreys: Zebre (away, May 1), Connacht (home, May 10).

Absolutely fascinating set of permutations.

Some mightily tasty fixtures there. Table topping clashes and banana skins galore. Thrilling next 2 weeks ahead.

The three Irish provinces have the most difficult run-ins, Glasgow could well find themselves top and I think Ulster could well miss out, Ospreys and the Warriors can easily get two BP wins and I can't see any of the three Irish teams winning both their games.
I think we'll see:

Glasgow
Leinster
Munster
Ospreys

Like the optimism Numbers, but still reckon Leinster will finish top. To streetwise to leave Ravenhill empty handed ie at least a losing bonus point. Then they have Edinburgh at home meaning 5 points right there. So 6 points right there.

GLove39 wrote:Like the optimism Numbers, but still reckon Leinster will finish top. To streetwise to leave Ravenhill empty handed ie at least a losing bonus point. Then they have Edinburgh at home meaning 5 points right there. So 6 points right there.

Sadly, I agree. Haven't seen much to indicate that Leinster won't take at least 6 and probably 9 points from their last two games.

Ulster will put 4 tries on Leinster and qualify for the playoffs next weekend. We might let them have the LBP though. Couldn't tell ya. Only sure about the four tries  

I wonder what that is going to do to Munster, inspire them or destroy them. It was certainly a tough loss, why did they not kick that penalty with 10 to go?

Look what the Saracens game has done to Ulster. It takes a while to get over tough losses like that.

Glasgow have had a big advantage in the last month due to Irish distractions but I think by the time the playoffs come around the battered losers will recover.

But Ulster battered Connacht the weekend after the Saracnes loss. No Heineken Cup hangover there.

GLove39 wrote:Like the optimism Numbers, but still reckon Leinster will finish top. To streetwise to leave Ravenhill empty handed ie at least a losing bonus point. Then they have Edinburgh at home meaning 5 points right there. So 6 points right there.

I can't see them getting five points at Ulster and Edinburgh tend to up their game against the better teams and have already beaten Munster, Leinster and the Ospreys this season as well as pushing Glasgow and Ulster close, in fact I think you'll find there aren't many teams with a better record against the top five this season. I don't think they'll win both, and no 5 pointers either

George Carlin wrote:As of this evening:

Team/Played/Won/Drawn/Lost/For/Against/Bonus Pts/Points

1   Leinster   20  15  1  4  517  319  12  74  
2   Glasgow   20  16  0  4  392  293  5  69
3   Munster   20  15  0  5  466  308  8  68  
4   Ulster   20  14  0  6  431  280  9  65  
5   Ospreys   20  12  1  7  499  338  10  60

Only just noticed from the table that Glasgow have been very poor in picking up bonus points - only 5 compared to 12 for Leinster, 8 for Munster, 9 for Ulster and 10 for Ospreys. Was it try BP's or losing BP's they didn't pick up - could come back to haunt them even though they have by far the easiest run in with the two Italian sides while the Irish teams will probably all take points off each other. Max Glasgow can get with two BP wins (by no means a certainty away to Treviso) is 79 pts - but they still look the best bet for second spot with Munster third and hopefully Ulster keeping the hairsprays away from 4th spot.

It is try bonus points that have been the issue - they have only picked up 2.
However it is worth remembering that the Irish teams have all played both games against the Italians while the Weegies still have 2 to play. If they get 2 try BPs then they are still behind in terms of the total but the difference is not so dramatic.

GLove39 wrote:But Ulster battered Connacht the weekend after the Saracnes loss. No Heineken Cup hangover there.

Have you seen how Connacht are defending lately? It was like a training session- they fell for the most basic moves and gifted us tries. A game like that has very little bearing on games when the top sides play each other. A game between two teams in the Top Five is completely different to playing a team in the bottom six, which is worrying in the extreme. The gulf in quality is massive and it's a long term problem for the league. I would say maybe only one or two of the eight tries we put past Connacht would have come off against another Top 4 team.

Connacht didn't have the players to play such an expensive game and got badly exposed for it.

I don't think the gap is that big Notch, any team in the bottom 6 can trouble one of the top 5, difference is in squads depth. I think the Blues could become a force to be reckoned with next season.

VinceWLB wrote:Connacht didn't have the players to play such an expensive game and got badly exposed for it.

I don't think the gap is that big Notch, any team in the bottom 6 can trouble one of the top 5, difference is in squads depth. I think the Blues could become a force to be reckoned with next season.

Blues have been sleeping giants for some years now and there have been a few false dawns. They have had a few highlights this year ,mainly in the HC and seem to be finishing the season well. That is a very different challenge though from having a full consistent season. I am not sure they will be quite there next season, but should not be to far away and that is what they should be aiming for.