Rabo play-off run-in

Current table:
Position Club Points
1 Leinster 68
2 Munster 63
3 Ulster 60
4 Ospreys 52
5 Glasgow 51

Remaining fixtures:

Leinster:
@ Ospreys L(poss win)
v Treviso W
@ Ulster L
v Edinburgh W

Munster:
v Glasgow W
@ Connacht W
@ Edinburgh W
v Ulster W

Ulster:
v Connacht W
@ Glasgow L(poss win)
v Leinster W
@ Munster L

Ospreys:
v Leinster W(poss loss)
@ Dragons W
@ Zebre W
v Connacht W

Glasgow:
v Treviso W
@ Munster L
v Ulster W(poss loss)
v Edinburgh W
@ Treviso W
v Zebre W


Predicted table w/out bonus points:
Position Club Points
1 Munster 79
2 Leinster 76
3 Glasgow 71
4 Ulster 68
5 Ospreys 64

I can see Ulster winning against Connacht and Leinster. I don't see them winning at Munster but should pick up a LBP there. Away to Glasgow is a key fixture for the run-in. I think Ulster manage that but no TBP, so 3 wins and possibly 2 BPs. That gives 16 points. At the minute they are 8 points behind Leinster so Leinster need 9 points from their remaining 4 games to keep to a home semi-final(?). They should win against Treviso and Edinburgh so a BP in any of the last four games give a home semi-final.

If Leinster want home advantage throughout the playoffs, they need to pick up an away win against either Ospreys or Ulster and pick up two BPs in the last four games to stay in 1st place (?). The more I look at it I reckon Leinster will most likely finish second with Munster creeping ahead of them.

Can't figure out 4th place, but is going to be interesting. Considering Glasgow have Treviso to play twice and Zebre, and are only 1 point behind Osprey with 2 games in hand they probably are in the driving seat.

Semi finals to be Munster hosting Glasgow while Leinster host Ulster. At that stage, it might depend on which (if any) side is still in the HCup. All teams focused and on fully fit I reckon Munster edge Glasgow with Ulster upsetting Leinster. Ulster then to upset Munster in Thomond for the final...... wait what did I just say.....

Well done Asbo - was about to start this thread myself.

Scarlets aren't completely out of it, but on 41 points I think it would be too much for them to get a play-off berth now.

The key number not in that table is that Glasgow have two games in hand - against Edinburgh and Treviso - on paper at least, some of the weaker names in the league. We have shown an utter inability to score tries this season, so I think that the most we can realistically hope for out of those games is 8 points. Glasgow has got every chance to make the playoffs but I can't see Munster dropping enough points between now and the end of the season for us to get a home QF.

If we can get any points at all at Thomond on 12 April, then that should be enough.

Didn't realise what tough run-in Ulster have got. Couldn't really be any worse and they have to be distracted by the Heineken too.

Leinster v Ulster
Munster v Glasgow

Battle for the top 4 finished on Friday when Biggar's drop goal attempt got charged down   

LEINSTER 83 (4, 5, 1 , 5)
MUNSTER 80 (4, 4, 5, 4)
GLASGOW 74 (5, 1, 4, 4, 4, 5)
ULSTER 71 (5, 1, 4, 1)
TOSSPREYS 68 (1, 5, 5, 4)
SCARLETS 61 (5, 5, 5, 5)

Updated OP for my predictions w/out bonus points, but still remarkably similar outcome to Penfro's

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:Updated OP for my predictions w/out bonus points, but still remarkably similar outcome to Penfro's

That's cos great minds ....etc   

Just a quick point when making your predictions -
BLUES v SCARLETS and DRAGONS v TOSSPREYS on Easter Sunday are both at the Millennium Stadium

PenfroPete wrote:Just a quick point when making your predictions  -
BLUES v SCARLETS and DRAGONS v TOSSPREYS on Easter Sunday are both at the Millennium Stadium  

Yup, Dragons seem Ok with giving up home advantage again   

Also very similar predictions to Pete. I reckon:

Leinster - 4,5,1,5 finish 83
Munster - 4,5,5,4 finish 81
Glasgow - 5,0,4,4,4,5 finish 73
Ulster - 5,1,4,1 finish 71
Ospreys - 1,4,5,5 finish 67

I have Glasgow getting 2 bonus points but in reality they could get anywhere from 0 to 5. Lack of tries or defeat to Ulster could drop us to 4th, which I think would mean yet another SF defeat at the RDS.

If we all agree, should we just leave it here and go straight to the play offs?

Good thread , I think O's will miss out and Ulster will suffer from a very difficult run in and the demands of the HC. So Glasgow either face the Ladyboys again or go to Fortress Thomond.
Looks like an all Irish final.

So you're all backing Leinster to take the Ospreys in Ospreylia with a 5 day turnaround from the hardest HC qf in the history of the world? While the Ospreys (Our bogey team) sit with their feet up until then.

Love your confidence.....

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:So you're all backing Leinster to take the Ospreys in Ospreylia with a 5 day turnaround from the hardest HC qf in the history of the world? While the Ospreys (Our bogey team) sit with their feet up until then.

Love your confidence.....

Nope, sorry, I gave it to the Hairspreys, with an outside chance of a Leinster win

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:While the Ospreys (Our bogey team) sit with their feet up until then.

Love your confidence.....

That'll be the Ospreys whom you beat with ease in the last 2 fixtures

PenfroPete wrote:

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:While the Ospreys (Our bogey team) sit with their feet up until then.

Love your confidence.....

That'll be the Ospreys whom you beat with ease in the last 2 fixtures

That'll be the Ospreys who like to chew through our tight head prop depth.

A final with Munster in Ulster at Thomond - mouth watering   

A lot of very cautious optimism here.

Screw that, Leinster for the double.

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:Current table:
Position Club Points
1 Leinster 68
2 Munster 63
3 Ulster 60
4 Ospreys 52
5 Glasgow 51

Remaining fixtures:

Leinster:
@ Ospreys L(poss win)
v Treviso W
@ Ulster L
v Edinburgh W

Munster:
v Glasgow W
@ Connacht W
@ Edinburgh W
v Ulster W

Ulster:
v Connacht W
@ Glasgow L(poss win)
v Leinster W
@ Munster L

Ospreys:
v Leinster W(poss loss)
@ Dragons W
@ Zebre W
v Connacht W

Glasgow:
v Treviso W
@ Munster L
v Ulster W(poss loss)
v Edinburgh W
@ Treviso W
v Zebre W


Predicted table w/out bonus points:
Position Club Points
1 Munster 79
2 Leinster 76
3 Glasgow 71
4 Ulster 68
5 Ospreys 64

Update post Glasgow vs Treviso on 4/iv/14:

Latest table:
Position Club Points
1 Leinster 68
2 Munster 63
3 Ulster 60
4 Glasgow 56
5 Ospreys 52

Remaining fixtures:

Leinster:
@ Ospreys L(poss win)
v Treviso W
@ Ulster L
v Edinburgh W

Munster:
v Glasgow W
@ Connacht W
@ Edinburgh W
v Ulster W

Ulster:
v Connacht W
@ Glasgow L(poss win)
v Leinster W
@ Munster L

Glasgow:
@ Munster L
v Ulster W(poss loss)
v Edinburgh W
@ Treviso W
v Zebre W

Ospreys:
v Leinster W(poss loss)
@ Dragons W
@ Zebre W
v Connacht W


Predicted table w/out bonus points:
Position Club Points
1 Munster 79
2 Leinster 76
3 Glasgow 72
4 Ulster 68
5 Ospreys 64

Two important fixtures coming up this weekend with Munster hosting Glasgow and Ospreys hosting Leinster? With a European seim-final on the horizon, will Munster take their eye off the league with Glasgow looking for revenge? How will Leinster come back from a frankly lackluster showing in the south of France?

Massive weekend, Ulster have a real opportunity against Connacht to gain ground on the losers of the other two big games but the mental and physical toll of that quarter-final is a significant obstacle.

It's a must-win game for Ulster. If Ulster don't bounce back the door is well and truly open for Glasgow and Ospreys.

My predictions;

Munster to beat Glasgow (no BP, no LBP)
Ulster to beat Connacht (no BP)
Ospreys to beat Leinster (no BP, LBP for Leinster)

Which leaves my predicted table after this weekend looking like;

Leinster 69
Munster 67
Ulster 64
Glasgow 56
Ospreys 56

Hope and pray I'm not wrong... Ulsters next three games after Connacht being very tough.

After last night looks pretty tasty for The Warriors. Ulster game on Friday now massive and a real '8' pointer. We are getting into top gear at the correct time. After the performance at the Melrose 7's by Mad McMata, Bennett, Jedi, Hughes, Isles and co it was a very good day for Glasgow rugby and The Warriors.    

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:Current table:
Position Club Points
1 Leinster 68
2 Munster 63
3 Ulster 60
4 Ospreys 52
5 Glasgow 51

Remaining fixtures:

Leinster:
@ Ospreys L(poss win)
v Treviso W
@ Ulster L
v Edinburgh W

Munster:
v Glasgow W
@ Connacht W
@ Edinburgh W
v Ulster W

Ulster:
v Connacht W
@ Glasgow L(poss win)
v Leinster W
@ Munster L

Ospreys:
v Leinster W(poss loss)
@ Dragons W
@ Zebre W
v Connacht W

Glasgow:
v Treviso W
@ Munster L
v Ulster W(poss loss)
v Edinburgh W
@ Treviso W
v Zebre W


Predicted table w/out bonus points:
Position Club Points
1 Munster 79
2 Leinster 76
3 Glasgow 71
4 Ulster 68
5 Ospreys 64

Update post Glasgow vs Treviso on 4/iv/14:

Latest table:
Position Club Points
1 Leinster 68
2 Munster 63
3 Ulster 60
4 Glasgow 56
5 Ospreys 52

Remaining fixtures:

Leinster:
@ Ospreys L(poss win)
v Treviso W
@ Ulster L
v Edinburgh W

Munster:
v Glasgow W
@ Connacht W
@ Edinburgh W
v Ulster W

Ulster:
v Connacht W
@ Glasgow L(poss win)
v Leinster W
@ Munster L

Glasgow:
@ Munster L
v Ulster W(poss loss)
v Edinburgh W
@ Treviso W
v Zebre W

Ospreys:
v Leinster W(poss loss)
@ Dragons W
@ Zebre W
v Connacht W


Predicted table w/out bonus points:
Position Club Points
1 Munster 79
2 Leinster 76
3 Glasgow 72
4 Ulster 68
5 Ospreys 64

Two important fixtures coming up this weekend with Munster hosting Glasgow and Ospreys hosting Leinster?  With a European seim-final on the horizon, will Munster take their eye off the league with Glasgow looking for revenge?  How will Leinster come back from a frankly lackluster showing in the south of France?

OK, didn't see the Munster-Glasgow result coming, but updated following the weekend's games:

Latest table:
Position Club Points
1 Leinster 69
2 Ulster 65
3 Munster 63
4 Glasgow 60
5 Ospreys 56

Remaining fixtures:

Leinster:
v Treviso W
@ Ulster L
v Edinburgh W

Munster:
@ Connacht W
@ Edinburgh W
v Ulster W

Ulster:
@ Glasgow L(poss win)
v Leinster W
@ Munster L

Glasgow:
v Ulster W(poss loss)
v Edinburgh W
@ Treviso W
v Zebre W

Ospreys:
@ Dragons W
@ Zebre W
v Connacht W


Predicted table w/out bonus points:
Position Club Points
1 Leinster 77
2 Glasgow 76
3 Munster 75
4 Ulster 69
5 Ospreys 68

Glasgow vs Ulster this weekend looks like a big game, and bonus points are starting to count (Os have done v well on that score)

If Glasgow can take absolutely anything out of the Ulster game, then I am hoping it could be three BP wins for the last 3 games. 76 points would almost certainly get us the home play-off berth. I guess that we're playing our friends from Munster either way.

Impossible to call the Glasgow-Ulster game. Both sides will be confident that they can win it.

Glasgow will be favourites. Off the back of the Munster win and ulster being held together by sticky tape at the minute. It will take an almighty effort to win this one but the prize is huge. A win and I think we are odds on for a home semi.

I'll guarantee one think Glasgow, Ospreys, Munster and Leinster definitely will not win every game they have (not including the Ulster games)

Someone somewhere will slip up

geoff998rugby wrote:I'll guarantee one think Glasgow, Ospreys, Munster and Leinster definitely will not win every game they have (not including the Ulster games)

Someone somewhere will slip up

If Leinster lose at home to Edinburgh or Treviso I will buy you a pint.

Standulstermen wrote:Glasgow will be favourites. Off the back of the Munster win and ulster being held together by sticky tape at the minute. It will take an almighty effort to win this one but the prize is huge. A win and I think we are odds on for a home semi.

Stand, reckon whichever team wins in the Gla vs Uls game should get a home semi

geoff998rugby wrote:I'll guarantee one think Glasgow, Ospreys, Munster and Leinster definitely will not win every game they have (not including the Ulster games)

Someone somewhere will slip up

I have a sickening feeling that Glasgow will conspire to find a way to lose to Edinburgh.

Geoff - do you think that Ulster will win their last 2 games? It's an incredibly tough ask.

Mickado wrote:

geoff998rugby wrote:I'll guarantee one think Glasgow, Ospreys, Munster and Leinster definitely will not win every game they have (not including the Ulster games)

Someone somewhere will slip up

If Leinster lose at home to Edinburgh or Treviso I will buy you a pint.

To be honest Leinster are the ones I think are the least likely

George Carlin wrote:

geoff998rugby wrote:I'll guarantee one think Glasgow, Ospreys, Munster and Leinster definitely will not win every game they have (not including the Ulster games)

Someone somewhere will slip up

I have a sickening feeling that Glasgow will conspire to find a way to lose to Edinburgh.

Geoff - do you think that Ulster will win their last 2 games? It's an incredibly tough ask.

I think it depends on whether or not Munster are in the HC final - if they are we have a chance.
My gut feeling is we need 1 win to make the playoffs and 2 wins to have a home draw.

Our biggest worry is injuries may just scupper us

Where are we now in all this ? Bloody BPs are going to screw us for a home SF I think ?   

Rabo Rule 3.5:

If two or more Teams finish with the same number of league points, their placings will be determined by the following criteria in descending order:

• number of matches won;
  
• the difference between points for and points against;
  
• the number of tries scored;
  
• the most points scored;
  
• the difference between tries for and tries against;
  
• the fewest number of red cards received;
  
• the fewest number of yellow cards received.
  

That's actually not too bad for us - if we can beat the tram-users, then we'll have played as many games as everyone else but have one more victory than Munster and two more than Ulster.

If it comes down to points difference, we are monumentally fecked.

Thanks GC. I thought head to head over 2 legs came into but obviously not. We are ahead of all but Leinster on that one too. Oh well nevermind as K Cobain once said.   

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:Current table:
Position Club Points
1 Leinster 68
2 Munster 63
3 Ulster 60
4 Ospreys 52
5 Glasgow 51

Remaining fixtures:

Leinster:
@ Ospreys L(poss win)
v Treviso W
@ Ulster L
v Edinburgh W

Munster:
v Glasgow W
@ Connacht W
@ Edinburgh W
v Ulster W

Ulster:
v Connacht W
@ Glasgow L(poss win)
v Leinster W
@ Munster L

Ospreys:
v Leinster W(poss loss)
@ Dragons W
@ Zebre W
v Connacht W

Glasgow:
v Treviso W
@ Munster L
v Ulster W(poss loss)
v Edinburgh W
@ Treviso W
v Zebre W


Predicted table w/out bonus points:
Position Club Points
1 Munster 79
2 Leinster 76
3 Glasgow 71
4 Ulster 68
5 Ospreys 64

Update post Glasgow vs Treviso on 4/iv/14:

Latest table:
Position Club Points
1 Leinster 68
2 Munster 63
3 Ulster 60
4 Glasgow 56
5 Ospreys 52

Remaining fixtures:

Leinster:
@ Ospreys L(poss win)
v Treviso W
@ Ulster L
v Edinburgh W

Munster:
v Glasgow W
@ Connacht W
@ Edinburgh W
v Ulster W

Ulster:
v Connacht W
@ Glasgow L(poss win)
v Leinster W
@ Munster L

Glasgow:
@ Munster L
v Ulster W(poss loss)
v Edinburgh W
@ Treviso W
v Zebre W

Ospreys:
v Leinster W(poss loss)
@ Dragons W
@ Zebre W
v Connacht W


Predicted table w/out bonus points:
Position Club Points
1 Munster 79
2 Leinster 76
3 Glasgow 72
4 Ulster 68
5 Ospreys 64

Two important fixtures coming up this weekend with Munster hosting Glasgow and Ospreys hosting Leinster?  With a European seim-final on the horizon, will Munster take their eye off the league with Glasgow looking for revenge?  How will Leinster come back from a frankly lackluster showing in the south of France?

OK, didn't see the Munster-Glasgow result coming, but updated following the weekend's games:

Latest table:
Position Club Points
1 Leinster 69
2 Ulster 65
3 Munster 63
4 Glasgow 60
5 Ospreys 56

Remaining fixtures:

Leinster:
v Treviso W
@ Ulster L
v Edinburgh W

Munster:
@ Connacht W
@ Edinburgh W
v Ulster W

Ulster:
@ Glasgow L(poss win)
v Leinster W
@ Munster L

Glasgow:
v Ulster W(poss loss)
v Edinburgh W
@ Treviso W
v Zebre W

Ospreys:
@ Dragons W
@ Zebre W
v Connacht W


Predicted table w/out bonus points:
Position Club Points
1 Leinster 77
2 Glasgow 76
3 Munster 75
4 Ulster 69
5 Ospreys 68

Glasgow vs Ulster this weekend looks like a big game, and bonus points are starting to count (Os have done v well on that score)

Here we go with the latest update:

Latest table:
Position Club Points
1 Leinster 74
2 Munster 68
3 Ulster 65
4 Glasgow 64
5 Ospreys 60

Remaining fixtures:

Leinster:
@ Ulster L
v Edinburgh W

Munster:
@ Edinburgh W
v Ulster W

Ulster:
v Leinster W
@ Munster L

Glasgow:
v Edinburgh W
@ Treviso W
v Zebre W

Ospreys:
@ Zebre W
v Connacht W


Predicted table w/out bonus points:
Position Club Points
1 Leinster 78
2 Glasgow 76
3 Munster 76
4 Ulster 69
5 Ospreys 68


Clearly bonus points could well come in to play in the final make-up

Glasgow will rue the lack of bonus points I fear. of the top runners they have the least poins scored against, the least points scored, the least bonus points. Interesting but the inability to get those bonus points might cost them a home semi

Ulster need 5 points, then Ospreys can't catch us (having won less games). Ospreys blowing the bonus point against the Dragons was crucial.

Were Glasgow a side that not too long ago were running in record points hauls against the likes of Dragons?

Leinster need 1 win and 1 BP to lock up the top spot (?). A Leinster win up at Ravenhill would scupper Ulster completely. While I'm a Leinster fan I want the Irish provinces going strong.

thebandwagonsociety wrote:Were Glasgow a side that not too long ago were running in record points hauls against the likes of Dragons?

Leinster need 1 win and 1 BP to lock up the top spot (?).  A Leinster win up at Ravenhill would scupper Ulster completely.  While I'm a Leinster fan I want the Irish provinces going strong.

Aye, sure Leinster could do us a favour and rest most of their big names. They can lose and still get a home semi probably! Do it for Ireland guys!

Should Edinburgh field a weak team for the greater good of scottish rugby?

TJ wrote:Should Edinburgh field a weak team for the greater good of scottish rugby?

Hopefully yes. As you say all for the greater good.
Truth be told I do worry about Edinburgh in their last 3 games, all against top 4 sides who'll be looking to run up big 4+ try wins. Going to be brutal especially if they play with the same apathy as they did in Parma.

:-) I guess Edinburgh won't have to field a deliberately weak team :-) I do feel conspiracy theories heading this way tho with there being a few teams from the same countries playing each other in critical games

Indeed, I mean in the last 2 rounds both Ulster & Munster have come away with 5 points after beating Connacht. Only fair that Edinburgh let Glasgow do the same...

TJ, if Edinburgh do that then, speaking as a Glasgow supporter, I'll be well and truly peed off.

The 1872 matches are, or rather should be, the highlight of the Scottish rugby calendar, even bigger than the Calcutta Cup for me. There's no nationalistic fervor, no misunderstood history or self-imposed victimhood, just the rugby equivalent of a fistfight at a family wedding.

I'd lobby for BBC Scotland to show the matches on a prime-time non-teuchter channel, and it's difficult to justify this if either teams willingly fails to live up to the occasion.

Frankly, I'd air the fight between Chris Fusaro and Scott McLeod as an advert.

IrnBru - I was only joking! I want my team the MFLs to rub the weegies faces in the dirt so hard they will have to wash!

I can't see Ulster getting more than 5 points from their remaining games, Glasgow with their form could get 14 or 15. Hard to see what Ospreys will get, though I know their fans are desperately hoping for Ulster to slip up. If they were just a bit decent when it mattered then they wouldn't be in this situation.

Don't worry TJ, I know you were buddy!

TJ wrote:IrnBru - I was only joking!  I want my team the MFLs to rub the weegies faces in the dirt so hard they will have to wash!

Oh the humanity!   

Hopefully Edinburgh do put up a bit of a fight, but in truth I don't think Edinburgh need to deliberately 'throw' the game and let Glasgow get a TBP - it is inevitable.

RDW - you might just have to eat those words! For edinburgh its the last thing that they can do to get some pride this year - for Glasgow they have a bit more on their minds

I sincerely hope I do have to TJ! I really, really, really, really, really, want Edinburgh to win this one.

Really.

I am a bit torn personally despite being an Edinburgh fan as I'd love the weegies to win the playoffs. the worst result would be injuries to key players. Edinburghs season is pretty much over.

Same - the ideal situation is for Edinburgh to win by 5 points but Glasgow to still get a home semi final.

very impressed with Glasgow if they get a home semi they could win the damm thing