Rabo play-off run-in

First topic message reminder :

Current table:
Position Club Points
1 Leinster 68
2 Munster 63
3 Ulster 60
4 Ospreys 52
5 Glasgow 51

Remaining fixtures:

Leinster:
@ Ospreys L(poss win)
v Treviso W
@ Ulster L
v Edinburgh W

Munster:
v Glasgow W
@ Connacht W
@ Edinburgh W
v Ulster W

Ulster:
v Connacht W
@ Glasgow L(poss win)
v Leinster W
@ Munster L

Ospreys:
v Leinster W(poss loss)
@ Dragons W
@ Zebre W
v Connacht W

Glasgow:
v Treviso W
@ Munster L
v Ulster W(poss loss)
v Edinburgh W
@ Treviso W
v Zebre W


Predicted table w/out bonus points:
Position Club Points
1 Munster 79
2 Leinster 76
3 Glasgow 71
4 Ulster 68
5 Ospreys 64

BigGee wrote:

VinceWLB wrote:Connacht didn't have the players to play such an expensive game and got badly exposed for it.

I don't think the gap is that big Notch, any team in the bottom 6 can trouble one of the top 5, difference is in squads depth. I think the Blues could become a force to be reckoned with next season.

Blues have been sleeping giants for some years now and there have been a few false dawns. They have had a few highlights this year ,mainly in the HC and seem to be finishing the season well. That is a very different challenge though from having a full consistent season. I am not sure they will be quite there next season, but should not be to far away and that is what they should be aiming for.

They should aim at finishing best Welsh region and i think it's quite possible as i don't think Ospreys and Scarlets will improve much.

So Connacht was the hair of the dog then, delaying the inevitable hangover untill the following weekend in Glasgow.

brennomac wrote:

George Carlin wrote:As of this evening:

Team/Played/Won/Drawn/Lost/For/Against/Bonus Pts/Points

1   Leinster   20  15  1  4  517  319  12  74  
2   Glasgow   20  16  0  4  392  293  5  69
3   Munster   20  15  0  5  466  308  8  68  
4   Ulster   20  14  0  6  431  280  9  65  
5   Ospreys   20  12  1  7  499  338  10  60

Only just noticed from the table that Glasgow have been very poor in picking up bonus points - only 5 compared to 12 for Leinster, 8 for Munster, 9 for Ulster and 10 for Ospreys. Was it try BP's or losing BP's they didn't pick up - could come back to haunt them even though they have by far the easiest run in with the two Italian sides while the Irish teams will probably all take points off each other.  Max Glasgow can get with two BP wins (by no means a certainty away to Treviso) is 79 pts - but they still look the best bet for second spot with Munster third and hopefully Ulster keeping the hairsprays away from 4th spot.

It's been a weird season for us, Brenn. In aggregate, we haven't played as well as we did last season but crucially we are peaking at the right time, whereas we'd shot our bolt by the time Leinster edged us out last year.

We set a new Rabo record for consecutive TBP victories last season (5 or 6 I think) but for the first half of this season we couldn't score tries for nuts. It was a bit embarrassing and flair players like Matawalu and Hogg were clearly p!ssed off. Our mean defence kept us in the league. Now, we crucially have momentum. This is due to 3 things - long injured players (Horne, Murchie) coming back and playing well, some imports (Nakarawa, Holmes, Strauss) showing that they have real quality and a couple of young Scottish players (Gray Jnr, Bennett, Russell) showing that they can play.

No idea how we'll do in the playoffs though. We still can't seem to beat Leinster.

I'm leaning toward
Glasgow v Munster
Leinster vUlster
semis.
This would most likely lead to Leinster v Glasgow final. This is likely because (a) home sides always, so far, have won their semis and (b) Glasgow are on fire, have recently beaten Munster and today's beating will take some getting over.
Sadly, although a final appearance would be an improvement on last year I still think Leinster would win at home.
Still, ten points could be enough to finish top with 79 points and then .... well we could begin to dream the impossible dream. Yes, Asbo would be so overcome he would buy a round.  

I would say the away game to Leinster was the turning point in Glasgow's season this year. The start of the season we won without ever playing well and then had a poor HC, making a complete Horlicks of our games against the Blues.

We lost against Leinster, not a massive surprise but actually played well and ran them very close. It seemed to remind them all that they were a half decent team after all and since then Glasgow have not really looked back.

Glasgow definitely started their run a lot later this year but do look like they are in the grove just now. Last year at the RDS proved to be a game to far but this year who knows. Saving your best form for the part of the season where it really matters is what counts. It is something the Irish teams have excelled at over the years.

Right - sharp end time now. Munster have an easy game against the MFLs in Edinburgh. We have a banana skin type game v Treviso in the Veneto. Ulster v Leinster at Ravenhill. Hairsprays in Zebre on Thursday. What a finish to the Robocop     

What are the odds on the MFL manning up?
I'll text Kylie just now and tell her to get Charlene Spitteri  and some baby oil ready.
If the Luvvies turn Munster over anything's possible.
 

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:This week

Glasgow v Embra

Glasgow win no BP. Move ahead of Munster on games won (both 68 points)

Leinster 74
Glasgow 68
Munster 68
Ulster 65

Only one game and I still got it wrong.   

Better luck next week. Hope Glasgae miss the BP in Italy to make up for it.

Oh and Ulster could do us a favour by putting on a few v Leinster too.. Maybe a step too far tbh !

How screwed is Ulster's front row? Is there any chance of them being competitive in the set piece?

We don't know who is available Solid. At the end of the Glasgow game we had five props out injured. Which leaves us with pretty much no-one left. Add in Paddy McAllister and basically thats the 1st to 3rd choice out at both loose head and tight head. Hope and pray we get some good news on the injury front ahead of the match on Friday because that would obviously make things difficult.

I don't know who will be fit to come back and who will not be, might have to have faith in the Academy lads but I'm confident we're more than a match for them from 4-15.

Potential Ulster team;

Warwick Herring Macklin
Henderson Muller
Ferris? Williams Henry
Marshall Jackson
Marshall Cave
Bowe Payne Trimble

Is it really fatal to have a young front row when the rest of the team is strong, Notch?

Andrew Warwick is a big unit, Rob Herring has at least made the full national training squad and has understudied Best for years now. I don't know as much about Adam Macklin other than the fact he's played in the Rabo a good few times now.

Macklin is not very good but some really good news- Callum Black is fit to play. I rate him as our best scrummaging loose head. So thats one prop back.

Afoa and/or Lutton might be fit. Just don't know yet.

I heard you will have Black, Court, Lutton and perhaps Afoa.

Just mind games trying to lull Leinster into a false sense of security.......

Your team is top notch (see what I did there) if not your bench.

I'm hoping we can take you with our bench.

I expect an all-singing all-dancing BOD over the coming weeks and Leinster will need it. Too often blunt in attack this season. Should be an excellent round of playoffs with Glasgow flying and Munster perhaps looking to make up for missong the party last year

The off-factor is that Munster will come under a mahoosive amount of pressure to deliver the league 'in compensation' for being edged in the Heineken. This is completely unfair, but a fairly intuitive demand for any set of fans.

The issue is whether that pressure is going to hinder or help the team.

well that's the ospreys out of the running, they were poor but not helped by a completely incompetent refereeing display from Fitzgibbon, how is he a pro ref? totally clueless

Fitzgibbon had a good game, blame your team not taking the points when they were on offer instead.

George Carlin wrote:The off-factor is that Munster will come under a mahoosive amount of pressure to deliver the league 'in compensation' for being edged in the Heineken. This is completely unfair, but a fairly intuitive demand for any set of fans.

The issue is whether that pressure is going to hinder or help the team.

Thats no different to Ulsters situation. I'm pretty fed up with Ulster being written off- yes we have injuries but we were only a refereeing decision away from a Heineken Cup semi/final ourselves!

When the playoffs roll around we'll have the likes of Best, Pienaar and Afoa back in the team and we've already shown we can go to really good teams and win away from home.

Will Zebre make the automatic places in the new, improved EC?

Portnoys right now Zebre are ahead of Treviso on points difference but Treviso have a game in hand.

The team who finishes highest in the table will get the Italian place in the new competition.

I really hope Zebre can make it, they are more complete and very exciting team to watch, Brendon Leonard would be in my rabo team of the year, if they can work just a little bit on their defence they can become a threat to any team.

[quote="welshy824 (new)"]well that's the ospreys out of the running, they were poor but not helped by a completely incompetent refereeing display from Fitzgibbon, how is he a pro ref? totally clueless[/quote]

Same old excuse for a Welsh loss. It never seems to be the team or the coaches fault.

Allty wrote:

welshy824 (new) wrote:well that's the ospreys out of the running, they were poor but not helped by a completely incompetent refereeing display from Fitzgibbon, how is he a pro ref? totally clueless

Same old excuse for a Welsh loss.  It never seems to be the team or the coaches fault.  

excuse me, I very rarely post on here so I would appreciate it if you did not tar me with the same brush as some of my fellow countrymen/women on this forum. Also I am not a O's fan, in fact being a gog I have no region to support properly. Also I believe I have witnessed many nationalities complaining about refereeing displays, whether international, or club rugby!
If you read what I said was the ospreys were poor but weren't helped by Fitzgibbon, who in my opinion was poor (note my opinion) gave a a number of peculiar calls, such as shouting at biggar to move from the ruck, thus distracting biggar and creating a hole that the zebra player promptly went through. It is a great win for zebra so I congratulate them (the play an exciting brand of rugby, and their improvement can only benefit the pro12 and indirectly the 6n) and frankly I am disappointed the ospreys players didn't seem to play with more urgency considering they were still in with a shout of the play offs.

Current table:
Position Club Points
1 Leinster 74
2 Glasgow 69
3 Munster 68
4 Ulster 65
5 Ospreys 61

Remaining fixtures:

Leinster:
@ Ulster L
v Edinburgh W

Glasgow:
@ Treviso W
v Zebre W

Munster:
@ Edinburgh W
v Ulster W

Ulster:
v Leinster W
@ Munster L

Ospreys:
v Connacht W


Predicted table w/out bonus points:
Position Club Points
1 Leinster 78
2 Glasgow 77
3 Munster 76
4 Ulster 69
5 Ospreys 65


So Ulster need just one table point to secure a play-off spot, almost certainly an away semi tho, with Ospreys pretty much out of it now. Bonus points could still decide the order of the top 3, and Ulster will have a significant say in that too.

If Ulster were able to secure that point tonight I would be for resting a few guys going into a potential semi. We are pretty certain to be away IF we get through so I think we need to get in the best possible physical shape for any semi final.

If we were to get some guys back I suspect we would give anyone a good rattle away from home

I suspect that there isn't a great deal between the top 4 teams on any given day, Stand - injuries may have an influence tho

Strong rumours that Sean O'Brien could be fit for Leinster by the end of the season...

Good news for Ireland Mick. I would be surprised if he saw anything other than the bench for Leinster though. Great impact but no point in doing himself a recurrence before next season.

I am fairly happy that the Irish big three plus Glasgow have been the best teams in the league this year. I also believe that any of them can beat any of the others on any given day.

The other story is that Scarlets are a win away from qualifying for Europe next season- realistically it's hard to see them not going through with Edinburgh having a reasonably tough run-in- and at the other end, the battle for the last European place between Zebre and Treviso just got interesting... Treviso need 6 points from their next 2 games to be sure of qualifying, but they are behind Zebre on points difference and playing an on fire Glasgow team at the weekend!

So who are looking to be playing in the new euro comp?

Leinster, Munster, Ulster, Ospreys, Scarlets, Glasgow, Zebre or Treviso in the Chump cup

I think it would be bloody well hilarious if Zebre got into the top tier competition on merit after all the harping about them this season.

Scarlets need 2 points to qualify from their last 2 games.

To be fair Zebre were completely awful up until the turn of the year. Now they are doing well, whereas Treviso have been in freefall!

1 Leinster 21 16 1 4 539 339 12 78
2 Glasgow 21 17 0 4 430 309 6 74
3 Munster 20 15 0 5 466 308 8 68
4 Ulster 21 14 0 7 451 302 10 66
5 Ospreys 21 12 1 8 526 368 11 61
6 Scarlets 21 10 1 10 408 423 9 51
7 Edinburgh 20 7 0 13 372 456 9 37
8 Cardiff Blues 20 7 1 12 388 496 7 37
9 Connacht 20 6 0 14 336 442 10 34
10 NG Dragons 21 6 1 14 372 473 5 31
11 Zebre 21 5 2 14 347 505 5 29
12 Treviso 21 5 1 15 357 571 7 29


So, the Warriors can only come top IF the Ladyparts lose to the Luvvies, at home already, and we beat Zebre by four tries.
If Munster stuff the fragrant smelling ones today then Ulster are stuck in fourth.
So unless Dozer Denton is a revelation in the second row today, and I truly believe he will be but not in a good way, it will be;
Leinster v Ulster
Glasgow v Munster.

I've got a feeling that if, or rather after, the Munstermen put the Luvvies to the sword today both they and Ulster will settle for third and fourth and play "weakened" sides next week thereby keeping players fresh for the semis. Leinster will probably do the same in their final match as their under 13's could probably pick up a losing bonus point against the mighty MFL. Glasgow will have to put out a strong(ish) side against Zebre since a shock defeat could send us to Dublin in the semi. Who would have thought that come the business end of the season the MFL would be so involved?
Predictions:
Ulster, even now are scouring the streets of Belfast for anyone who can play front row and has a couple of free weekends. Realistically, they are held together by black tape and string and an away semi in Dublin is one game too far.
Leinster, must be favourites v Ulster and then at home in the final.
Munster; should win easily today, then a "rest weekend" to finish the season before travelling to Glasgow.
Glasgow; Lineen has said they have the best squad, Toonie will probably rest a few next week and then go for broke against Munster.

Honest opinion. Ladyparts to edge out the , exhausted, Red Hand Gang.
Warriors to finally take the next step and win a semi. Home advantage (wherever that turns out to be) proving crucial.
Glasgow get revenge in Dublin for being cheated last year.
But then again; these are four very good sides who could all beat each other any day. I wouldn't bet Asbo's paint budget on it.

Au contraire jimbo, Ulster are expected to have Best, Afoa and Pienaar back for the semi-final. If we can only lose by 2 points to Leinster with 14 men and no specialist tight head on the pitch I'm looking forward to seeing what we can do with 15 men and three world class players back in the side!

That's the spirit Notch. If you beat the Ladyboys would it be a trip to Glasgow then?  

15 players?

What is this game of which you speak?

I remember my Grandparents talking of such a sport but I thought it was just stories made up to inspire children.

jimbopip wrote:That's the spirit Notch. If you beat the Ladyboys would it be a trip to Glasgow then?  

Or Thomond. Couldn't call who'd win the other semi-final.

Notch wrote:Au contraire jimbo, Ulster are expected to have Best, Afoa and Pienaar back for the semi-final. If we can only lose by 2 points to Leinster with 14 men and no specialist tight head on the pitch I'm looking forward to seeing what we can do with 15 men and three world class players back in the side!

Agree - I would be confident if I was Ulster. Leinster backline looked flat as a pancake and Madigan has looked pretty average for a couple of games now.

I'm assuming that Best's nickname is Wolverine. Regenerative powers like that are not normal. If he lost an arm, he'd presumably just grow another one.

Glasgow deserves the title. It would be great for the league if they won.

LeinsterFan4life wrote:Glasgow deserves the title. It would be great for the league if they won.

Even as Weege, I'm not sure that I can agree with that, LF4life - I certainly think Glasgow have done enough to show that they are worthy of a spot in the playoffs, but they need to go beyond that now and show that they can deliver when it comes to the business end of a season, that they have the mark of champions - that's what separates the holders of silverwear from the rest

Agreed. Toonie correctly claims that they lost the semi to Leinster last year because they just weren't streetwise enough. To be correctly said to have kicked on since last season, Glasgow needs to contest a final and make it competitive. They have the same players again, supplemented by a superb and hungry squad. There can be no excuses. Either they are the peers of the Irish big three or they aren't. They need to show it, not just talk about it.

LF4L, as Clint Eastwood said in Unforgiven 'Deserves Got Nothin' To Do with It'   

Once you're in the playoffs the previous 22 games go out the window! Unfair system? Probably. But thats the way it is.

LeinsterFan4life wrote:Glasgow deserves the title. It would be great for the league if they won.

Sorry now but I don't agree with the first part of that statement and it's the second time you said it. They are not top of the table and quiet frankly if they lose to Munster in the semi or Leinster in the final then they clearly don't deserve to win it.

If they do win the semi and the final then clearly they do deserve to win it but its nonsense to say they deserve to win it right now.

Last year I felt like Ulster deserved the title because we finished first, and I think Leinster deserve the title this year as they are set to finish first. But it doesn't work like that. After next weeks games the top four sides go back to having nothing and it's anyones!

Hardly nonsense. Its just my oponion and there is no need to make anything out of it. Obviously whoever wins the final deserves it but I personally want to see Glasgow win it as they are playing the best rugby in the league at the minute.

LeinsterFan4life wrote:Hardly nonsense. Its just my oponion and there is no need to make anything out of it. Obviously whoever wins the final deserves it but I personally want to see Glasgow win it as they are playing the best rugby in the league at the minute.

Let me be very clear about this - LeinsterFan4life has both great taste and wisdom beyond his years.
I would absolutely agree with the last sentence in particular.