Rabo Pro 12 - The Run-In

I'm not great at writing new topics, but I've been looking for this one, and nobody else created it so I did. Forgive me if its not insightful, its simply a place to discuss the season run-in.

Leinster 77 --> Dragons(a)
Ospreys 67 --> Aironi(a)
Munster 62 --> Ulster(h)
Warriors 61 --> Connacht(h)
Scarlets 57 --> Blues(h)
Ulster 56 --> Munster(a)

Ospreys have the easiest run in. Scarlets could well jump a few places they are in great form, three TBP wins in a row. Leinster and Munster would have to be the other favourites.

Munster could well slip up to Glasgow though. That would be great for the Rabbo.

Leinster
Ospreys
Scarlets
Warriors

Warriors and Ulster will be tight, and yes Scarlets could jump us both. Hopefully for Ulster Leinster will be focusing on the HC by the time they play us (but not until after beating Munster )

I can't see Ulster beating Munster both in the HC and the League though...
I know which i'd prefer.

Jeebus its goin to be a tight one. The Rabo is a brilliant league, feic anyone who says otherwise .

Ulster need 10 points from the next two I think and probably beat Leinster as well.

Leinster, Munster and Ospreys are nailed on I think. Three into one for the last spot.

I can Leinster feaslibly losing against Munster and Ulster.

Scarlets have a good run in and a lot will depend on how the HEC QFs go with a number of the sides still involved.

Heart says Ulster can make it but head says(just):

1 Munster
2 Leinster
3 Ospreys
4 Scarlets

I think we are playing Leinster at a perfect time - it will be the game of the 4 they put out a weakened team.

I think Ospreys are far from certain - 2 Welsh derbies will not be easy and one of them is away.

As for playing Munster my gut feeling is the winner of the HC QF will lose the Rabo12 match.

geoff998rugby wrote:I think we are playing Leinster at a perfect time - it will be the game of the 4 they put out a weakened team.

Yea Geoff and besides, Leinster owe us one for the team we gave them on boxing day!

If We manage to beat Munster in HC, do you reckon we will rest the top players in the Rabo too and give up on the playoff?

If we beat Munster, in the HC, I reckon we would rest a few against Connacht and a few against Munster and hope that winning the next 3 would be enough.

clivemcl wrote:I'm not great at writing new topics, but I've been looking for this one, and nobody else created it so I did. Forgive me if its not insightful, its simply a place to discuss the season run-in.

Leinster 64 --> Munster(a) - Edinburgh(h) - Ulster(a) - Dragons(a)
Munster 56 --> Leinster(h) - Warriors(h) - Scarlets(a) - Ulster(h)
Ospreys 53 --> Treviso(h) - Blues(a) - Dragons(h) - Aironi(a)
Warriors 51 --> Blues(h) - Munster(a) - Treviso(a) - Connacht(h)
Ulster 50 --> Aironi(h) - Connacht(a) - Leinster(h) - Munster(a)
Scarlets 50 --> Edinburgh(a) - Aironi(a) - Munster(h) - Blues(h)
Blues 45 --> Warriors(a) - Ospreys(h) - Edinburgh(h) - Scarlets(a)

To spark discussion :
Who do you think will get the playoff spots ?
Who has the easiest run-in ?
Will Leinster take the foot off the gas ?
Are the blues out of the running ?
Can you believe Ospreys are 3rd without a single try bonus point all season ?

Clive, nice one - have taken the liberty of updating your fixture list with home and away status, just cos that may have some bearing on the results. Hope that's ok?

Cheers dude, I'll update that! Good thinking!

Thanks for putting this up Clive. I was looking at the fixture run-in yesterday and it's going to be very tight.

Looking at this weekends games I see Ulster getting five points against Aironi. I would say anything less than five would be a poor return.

The big game of the weekend is at Thomond Park and although Leinster won't like it, I can see them losing for the second successive week. Munster will want to cement second spot and will be looking anxiously over their shoulders at Ospreys. Ospreys should be taking a full five at home to Treviso.

The other two games affecting the top four include two teams who may have an eye on the HC Quarters, so I am going for wins for Scarlets away to Edinburgh and Warriors at home to Blues.

So after the weekend I expect to see the league something like this: -

Leinster 65
Munster 60
Ospreys 58
Warriors 55
Ulster 55
Scarlets 54
Blues 45

That would effectively see the Blues out of the race leaving it one from three for fourth place. I am now going to look ahead to the round of games after Easter.

ooof so close for 4th spot, Can see any of Ulster, Glasgow or my Scarlets getting it. It's going to be down to who slips up and who doesnt, guess in a way it's effectively knock out rugby already.

I love this time of the season, even if it ruins my nerves! I would hope that the Scarlets could win all their remaining games, but LBP are going to be a big factor for teams now too, and there are potential banana skins for everyone now in the run in. I just can't call it.

The more I look at it the more I think it will be the same 4 teams as last year

Looks tough for Warriors.

Scarlets could knick in in front of Ulster, Ospreys or maybe even Munster though.
Munster lose at home to Leisnter and they will be under a bit of pressure.

The Welsh local derbies could be crucial.
I do believe Ulster will go into the home game against Leinster in the top 4 - nail that one and it might be enough

From an Ulster point of view, this weekend ideal results would be:

Leinster 64 --> Munster(a) Likely
Munster 56 --> Leinster(h)
Ospreys 53 --> Treviso(h) Not Likely
Warriors 51 --> Blues(h) I wouldnt bet against it
Ulster 50 --> Aironi(h) Likely
Scarlets 50 --> Edinburgh(a) I wouldnt bet against it
Blues 45 --> Warriors(a)

Heart or Head Geoff?

Looking at the games left a neutrally as I can, then I think Scarlets will finish ahead of Ulster. Munster actually hold the key with games against both Scarlets and Ulster in the last two weeks. I think Warriors will come up short probably losing two of their last four games. Scarlets to win all their remaining games and Ulster to lose one .

I HOPE I'M WRONG BY THE WAY

My Top 4 in order would be
Leinster
Ospreys
Munster
Scarlets

Scarlets v Munster will be key, Rava. It's been a long, LONG time since we beat them. We should be able to do it at home...but then again we've said that before

But we've also got to win two away games before that to, and our away form this season in the Pro12 hasn't been great~! No guarantees there at all.

Rava wrote:Heart or Head Geoff?

Looking at the games left a neutrally as I can, then I think Scarlets will finish ahead of Ulster.

Bollix its not just me then.

I think you Ulster fans should stop trying to use reverse psychology with regards to Ulster and the Scarlets, tis most unfair!

clivemcl wrote:I'm not great at writing new topics, but I've been looking for this one, and nobody else created it so I did. Forgive me if its not insightful, its simply a place to discuss the season run-in.

Leinster 64 --> Munster(a) - Edinburgh(h) - Ulster(a) - Dragons(a)
Munster 56 --> Leinster(h) - Warriors(h) - Scarlets(a) - Ulster(h)
Ospreys 53 --> Treviso(h) - Blues(a) - Dragons(h) - Aironi(a)
Warriors 51 --> Blues(h) - Munster(a) - Treviso(a) - Connacht(h)
Ulster 50 --> Aironi(h) - Connacht(a) - Leinster(h) - Munster(a)
Scarlets 50 --> Edinburgh(a) - Aironi(a) - Munster(h) - Blues(h)
Blues 45 --> Warriors(a) - Ospreys(h) - Edinburgh(h) - Scarlets(a)

To spark discussion :
Who do you think will get the playoff spots ?
Who has the easiest run-in ?
Will Leinster take the foot off the gas ?
Are the blues out of the running ?
Can you believe Ospreys are 3rd without a single try bonus point all season ?

Based on Clive's fixtures above, I've highlighted where I think the opposition will win and given a points accumulated prediction for each side:

Leinster 64 --> Munster(a) - Edinburgh(h) - Ulster(a) - Dragons(a) - 13, giving a total of 77
Munster 56 --> Leinster(h) - Warriors(h) - Scarlets(a) - Ulster(h) - 9, giving a total of 65
Ospreys 53 --> Treviso(h) - Blues(a) - Dragons(h) - Aironi(a) - 13, giving a total of 66
Warriors 51 --> Blues(h) - Munster(a) - Treviso(a) - Connacht(h) - 13, giving a total of 64
Ulster 50 --> Aironi(h) - Connacht(a) - Leinster(h) - Munster(a) - 12, giving a total of 62
Scarlets 50 --> Edinburgh(a) - Aironi(a) - Munster(h) - Blues(h) - 13, giving a total of 63
Blues 45 --> Warriors(a) - Ospreys(h) - Edinburgh(h) - Scarlets(a) - out of it

Good shout on the Warriors there As. I honestly think Scarlets need to win every single game now to get into the play offs and that is a tough ask. If we manage to do that, then it would be amazing.

You think Edinburgh will beat us though? They've not been in great form, and were turned over by the Dragons last weekend. All signs are there that the Scarlets could do the same.

Leinster beating Munster this weekend is good for Leinster (Obviously) as it means we need only win our home game v Embra and we can relax.

Leinster beating Munster this weekend is good for Ulster as it will mean Munster will be more motivated to beat the Sacrlets. AND Leinster may field a weaker team v Ulster.

Leinster beating Munster this weekend is good for Ospreys as they may get a home semi.

Leinster beating Munster this weekend is not good for Munster (obviously in so many ways)

Leinster beating Munster this weekend is not good for Scarlets or Glasgow as they have to play them after.

Not feeling too confident, but maybe losing last Friday will give us the "kick up the hole" we need to beat them.

Both teams will have their best available side out and it should be a cracker.

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:Leinster beating Munster this weekend is good for Leinster (Obviously) as it means we need only win our home game v Embra and we can relax.

Leinster beating Munster this weekend is good for Ulster as it will mean Munster will be more motivated to beat the Sacrlets. AND Leinster may field a weaker team v Ulster.Leinster beating Munster this weekend is good for Ospreys as they may get a home semi.

Leinster beating Munster this weekend is not good for Munster (obviously in so many ways)

Leinster beating Munster this weekend is not good for Scarlets or Glasgow as they have to play them after.

Not feeling too confident, but maybe losing last Friday will give us the "kick up the hole" we need to beat them.

Both teams will have their best available side out and it should be a cracker.

But if Munster become 'safe', they may join Leinster in fielding a weak side against us in May! I'm undecided who to cheer for!

So Asbo, you don't think Ulster will get a TBP against Aironi at home? We have scored 13 tries already against them this season. I also think we are capable of a LBP away to Munster.

Doesn't change my overall thinking though.

clivemcl wrote:[

But if Munster become 'safe', they may join Leinster in fielding a weak side against us in May! I'm undecided who to cheer for!

But if Leinster are not safe........... They might go up to Ravers with intent.

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:

clivemcl wrote:[

But if Munster become 'safe', they may join Leinster in fielding a weak side against us in May! I'm undecided who to cheer for!

But if Leinster are not safe........... They might go up to Ravers with intent.

This all makes me feel a little ...

The other factor is The Heineken and Amlin Cups.

Only one of Munster and Ulster will be in it after Easter. Only one of Leinster and Cardiff will be there. Scarlets could be there too.

That's 3 teams that could be worrying about another Semi on the 28th of April.

Bound to affect squad rotation etc.

Basically none of us has a clue

rugbydreamer wrote:Good shout on the Warriors there As. I honestly think Scarlets need to win every single game now to get into the play offs and that is a tough ask. If we manage to do that, then it would be amazing.

You think Edinburgh will beat us though? They've not been in great form, and were turned over by the Dragons last weekend. All signs are there that the Scarlets could do the same.

They didn't have any of the international players back, and they must play them this weekend to get some gel in the team prior to taking on Toulouse

aye but that means that Edinburgh could be really rusty, just like Scarlets were for the 1st half against the Blues, could play into Scarlets hands as we've already had our internationals back playing for a week.

Oooo I just don't know. We've got our eye on the QF against Brive too, so squad rotation is going to be absolutely key.

geoff998rugby wrote:Basically none of us has a clue

I'll amend the thread as the weeks move on, and the picture will become clearer!

5th place and a HEC QF would exceed my expectations for Ulster this season. Anything else is a bonus. The Scottish and Welsh teams underperformed last season and 4/5th in the league is a good reflection of where we are at. We've shown that last season was no fluke.

It would be great to make the play offs again but winning the HEC QF is the priority for me and I'd happily sacrifice reaching the Rabo play-offs to go a stage or two further in the HEC.

It'll be the Irishers and Ospreys with the Scarlets just missing out - again.

The Heineken Cup can have an effect. Leinster have lost two Pro12 finals after being involved near the end of the HC.

There is also the HEC qualification for the Welsh to consider too, and the Blues, Scarlets and Dragons are still technically in a hunt to sercure their place in next years tournament.

Blues: Glasgow (A), Ospreys (H), Edinburgh (H), Scarlets (A).

Dragons: Connacht (H), Treviso (H), Ospreys (A), Leinster (H)

Scarlets: Edinburgh (A), Aironi (A), Munster (H), Blues (H)

So I guess it all depends on how long/if the Blues return to form, or if other teams like Leinster/Edinburgh/Munster get distracted by the HEC seeing as their pretty much know if they are in the play-offs or not already.

Should be a good last few games and a few different mathematical chances (E.g. Blues and Scarlets draw against each other and lose all other games with no bonus points, and Dragons get full points in all games, Dragons finish 2nd region).

Scarlet, surely there are three automatic qualifying spots for the Welsh Regions so if the Dragons are to get there they would ideally want Blues to lose all their remaining games.
Alternatively if Cardiff win the HC or Scarlets the Amlin then wouldn't that give the Regions another HC place?

Yes, but Cardiff could win the ERC and hence 4 Welsh teams would qualify next year.

Did I not just say that Glas?

Yes.

Right off the Warriors at your peril dudes !

For me I believe it will be:

Leinster
Ospreys
Munster
Scarlets

Scarlets Ospreys final, too close to call (Scarlets)

21st Century Schizoid Man wrote:Right off the Warriors at your peril dudes !

Yes I have gone right off the Warriors. That's what losing to them 1 and a half times in a season does to you.

I can see the Ospreys winning 3 of the last 4.

Treviso at home will probably be a banker, they didn;t want to know when they came to our place in the Heinaken Cup, Aironi away should be a hard fought but decent win. Dragons at home should be a good win too.

AlynDavies wrote:I can see the Ospreys winning 3 of the last 4.

Treviso at home will probably be a banker, they didn;t want to know when they came to our place in the Heinaken Cup, Aironi away should be a hard fought but decent win. Dragons at home should be a good win too.

Fingers crossed we can soften up Cardiff Blues for yah the previous week. Then you could win all 4.

If the ospreys turn up they could gey a bonus point win in 3 out of the 4 matches and a bonus point against the Blues or better.

Munster
Leinster
Ospreys
Ulster

Well at least you can't knock Rabo fans for not concentrating on relegation/promotion issues.




Saturday, 24 March 2012 21:40 UK

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	BP	PTS
1	Leinster	18	14	1	3	458	278	6	64
2	Munster	18	12	0	6	389	292	8	56
3	Ospreys	18	12	1	5	368	292	3	53
4	Glasgow	18	10	4	4	348	272	3	51
5	Ulster	18	11	0	7	392	339	6	50
6	Scarlets	18	10	1	7	348	284	8	50
7	Cardiff Blues	18	9	0	9	373	354	9	45
8	Newport-Gwent D'gons	18	7	1	10	289	361	3	33
9	Treviso	18	6	0	12	347	428	6	30
10	Connacht	18	4	1	13	246	353	7	25
11	Edinburgh	18	4	1	13	358	452	5	23
12	Aironi	18	4	0	14	232	443	3	19

Looks to me as the only issue in the basement area is the HEC/Amlin share.

If I were God: That'd be Ireland 3 Wales 3 Scotland 1 Italy 1 going on current placings.

And that would make it exceptionally hard on the Dragons.

Leinster
Ospreys
Munster
Scarlets

I see the top 4 staying as it is. Each of those 4 have some comfortable run-ins, Glasgow will fancy their chances. I think Leinster can afford to lose two games and still be the highest placed; and with the Heineken Cup looming they probably will.

Glas a du wrote:Yes, but Cardiff could win the ERC and hence 4 Welsh teams would qualify next year.

And I will eat my shorts, in reverse.

There's 8 teams in it, they only have to win three games. I'm not saying its probable, but it is possible. And the Scarlets are still in the Amlin do there's two chances for the four Welsh sides to qualify.

Rava wrote:Scarlet, surely there are three automatic qualifying spots for the Welsh Regions so if the Dragons are to get there they would ideally want Blues to lose all their remaining games.
Alternatively if Cardiff win the HC or Scarlets the Amlin then wouldn't that give the Regions another HC place?

Yeah but to be honest with only 4 games left, and two of them being Welsh Derbies (to teams they have already lost to??) the Blues run in is looking awkward. The Dragons do have a hope of getting into the HEC throught he automatic place, which does make it an exciting run in IMO. Especially if your a Blues fan I would have thought, as it may well be a rolercoaster of we will make the play-offs/miss out on europe.