Rabo Pro 12 - The Run-In

First topic message reminder :

I'm not great at writing new topics, but I've been looking for this one, and nobody else created it so I did. Forgive me if its not insightful, its simply a place to discuss the season run-in.

Leinster 77 --> Dragons(a)
Ospreys 67 --> Aironi(a)
Munster 62 --> Ulster(h)
Warriors 61 --> Connacht(h)
Scarlets 57 --> Blues(h)
Ulster 56 --> Munster(a)

I would hazard a guess at the play-off spots being

Leinster
Munster
Warrirors
Ospreys/Scarlets/Ulster (all going down tot eh wire like Scarlets/Ospreys last season)

i'll make a prediction.

If Ulster win in Thormond Sunday week they will not make the Pro 12 playoffs
If they lose they will

geoff998rugby wrote:i'll make a prediction.

If Ulster win in Thormond Sunday week they will not make the Pro 12 playoffs
If they lose they will

You sure you ain't got htat teh wrong way around?

geoff998rugby wrote:i'll make a prediction.

If Ulster win in Thormond Sunday week they will not make the Pro 12 playoffs
If they lose they will

My prediction is we beat them both times, then again in the Rabo Final, making Ulster 4 - 0 Munster over the season...

ScarletSpiderman wrote:I would hazard a guess at the play-off spots being

Leinster
Munster
Warrirors
Ospreys/Scarlets/Ulster (all going down tot eh wire like Scarlets/Ospreys last season)

Come on Spiderman, thats not guessing at all. That's called sitting on the fence

Rava wrote:

ScarletSpiderman wrote:I would hazard a guess at the play-off spots being

Leinster
Munster
Warrirors
Ospreys/Scarlets/Ulster (all going down tot eh wire like Scarlets/Ospreys last season)

Come on Spiderman, thats not guessing at all. That's called sitting on the fence

Its called avoiding getting flack off others. I will make a more realistic prediction come the final whistle of the final normal game. Being serious though I do believe it will come down to the final game, and probably winning margins etc.

I predict Ulster will just miss out on the Rabo play-offs to Scarlets but reach the HEC final.

You win some, you lose some.

Would love to think that the Warriors can keep fourth but I have a horrible feeling that Ulster are playing too well to be kept out.

ScarletSpiderman wrote:

Rava wrote:

ScarletSpiderman wrote:I would hazard a guess at the play-off spots being

Leinster
Munster
Warrirors
Ospreys/Scarlets/Ulster (all going down tot eh wire like Scarlets/Ospreys last season)

Come on Spiderman, thats not guessing at all. That's called sitting on the fence

Its called avoiding getting flack off others. I will make a more realistic prediction come the final whistle of the final normal game. Being serious though I do believe it will come down to the final game, and probably winning margins etc.

I just can't see the Ospreys coming in any lower than 3rd.

Munster to me are the key. They have 3 home games, but all 4 games are against teams who are in contention for the playoffs.

If they go well they could catch Leinster for top spot. If they go badly, the Ospreys could catch them for 2nd.

These 3 teams will be (imho) in the top 3 spots

Warriors, Scarlets and Ulster are chasing 4th place for me. At the moment in that order. But it is wide open for 4th.

Scarlets have the easiest run in - I can see them winning all their remaining games with their internationals back

Ulster and Glasgow both have to travel to Munster

Rabo website down. Leinster website down. Munster website down. Fecken stoic again. this is the 3rd or 4th time this has happened

ScarletSpiderman wrote:

geoff998rugby wrote:i'll make a prediction.

If Ulster win in Thormond Sunday week they will not make the Pro 12 playoffs
If they lose they will

You sure you ain't got htat teh wrong way around?

Nope

If they win in Thormond everything will be geared towards the HC SF
If the lose they will go hell for leather for the Pro12 and I am confident will beat both Connacht and a Leinster team a week away from a HC SF themselves, and already assured a place in the playoffs anyway.

geoff - yeah sorry about that I was not thinking straight, I was thining of in the Rabbo (last game). Yeah the HEC/Amlin Cup for the teams in the play-off race (Leinster, Munster, Ulster, Blues, Scarlets) may well cause dropped Rabbo points.

No problems - this will be decided as much by the results of the European games as by the Pro12 games.

I dont think Ospreys are safe and if Munster lose at home to Leinster I don't think they are either.

Fair call Geoff, I never realised but Munster have the hardest run-in by far. Tend to forget about that just because it's Munster. They could feasibly lose all four of the remaining matches. Not likely but possible. None of those results are a given.

The Irish top three and the Ospreys. Ulster and Glasgow too close to call. Scarlets fluffed it.

Massive slip-up from the Scarlets this week right enough. Glasgow go to Munster in a fortnight whilst Ulster have Connacht away. But on the last day they host Connacht and we go to Thomond Park.

It will be exceptionally hard to make the Pro 12 playoffs if we make the Heineken Cup semi-final. But I probably won't care about the Pro 12 if we beat Munster on Sunday because we have a semi-final in Dublin against Toulouse or Edinburgh.

I'm very frustrated with our position in the league, because it's all down to the fact that without the senior players in the set-up in the first few months we had no gameplan, structure or leadership. Basically we blew it during the World Cup when we lost 3 out of 6. We then went on to lose 2 out of next 3 including away defeats to Scarlets and Glasgow. So at that stage we had 5 defeats in 9 games.

Phenomenal turnaround to get us back in contention in the league again. 8 wins out of 10 and 5 of those wins have been with the try bonus Point. 38 points out of a possible 50.

The way we performed in the league at the start of the season without all the senior players in the Ulster set-up is in my mind the main reason why we are bringing in a new coach next year.

C'mon the weegies

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

clivemcl wrote:I'm not great at writing new topics, but I've been looking for this one, and nobody else created it so I did. Forgive me if its not insightful, its simply a place to discuss the season run-in.

Leinster 64 --> Munster(a) - Edinburgh(h) - Ulster(a) - Dragons(a)
Munster 56 --> Leinster(h) - Warriors(h) - Scarlets(a) - Ulster(h)
Ospreys 53 --> Treviso(h) - Blues(a) - Dragons(h) - Aironi(a)
Warriors 51 --> Blues(h) - Munster(a) - Treviso(a) - Connacht(h)
Ulster 50 --> Aironi(h) - Connacht(a) - Leinster(h) - Munster(a)
Scarlets 50 --> Edinburgh(a) - Aironi(a) - Munster(h) - Blues(h)
Blues 45 --> Warriors(a) - Ospreys(h) - Edinburgh(h) - Scarlets(a)

To spark discussion :
Who do you think will get the playoff spots ?
Who has the easiest run-in ?
Will Leinster take the foot off the gas ?
Are the blues out of the running ?
Can you believe Ospreys are 3rd without a single try bonus point all season ?

Based on Clive's fixtures above, I've highlighted where I think the opposition will win and given a points accumulated prediction for each side:

Leinster 64 --> Munster(a) - Edinburgh(h) - Ulster(a) - Dragons(a) - 13, giving a total of 77
Munster 56 --> Leinster(h) - Warriors(h) - Scarlets(a) - Ulster(h) - 9, giving a total of 65
Ospreys 53 --> Treviso(h) - Blues(a) - Dragons(h) - Aironi(a) - 13, giving a total of 66
Warriors 51 --> Blues(h) - Munster(a) - Treviso(a) - Connacht(h) - 13, giving a total of 64
Ulster 50 --> Aironi(h) - Connacht(a) - Leinster(h) - Munster(a) - 12, giving a total of 62
Scarlets 50 --> Edinburgh(a) - Aironi(a) - Munster(h) - Blues(h) - 13, giving a total of 63
Blues 45 --> Warriors(a) - Ospreys(h) - Edinburgh(h) - Scarlets(a) - out of it

Phew, right so far

Scarlets have blown it. Its between Glasgow and Ulster for 4th spot now.

Unfortunately Ulster's run in is horrendous so I fancy Glasgow.

Leinster, Munster and Ospreys home and dry.

See, people keep saying the Scarlets have blown it (which yes I know we have), but did people actually look at our away record in the Pro12 this season, and then really think we had a v good chance of winning?

It's been dire!

I am more annoyed that we came so close to winning and then didn't manage it! A LBP could be key though, waht with both Munster and Ulster having such tough run ins.

It's pretty much out of the Scarlets' hands now though. Got to try and win our remaining gaems, and hope others slip up along the way.

Should munster lose tonight they are far from certain

Munster lost tonight. That with Scarlets result last night puts a different slant on things.

Leinster 68 --> Edinburgh(h) - Ulster(a) - Dragons(a)
Munster 56 --> Warriors(h) - Scarlets(a) - Ulster(h)
Ospreys 58 --> Blues(a) - Dragons(h) - Aironi(a)
Warriors 56 --> Munster(a) - Treviso(a) - Connacht(h)
Ulster 55 --> Connacht(a) - Leinster(h) - Munster(a)
Scarlets 51 --> Aironi(a) - Munster(h) - Blues(h)

Munster v Warriors
Scarlets v Munster
Munster v Ulster

Are huge games.

Dunno now. Scarlets look to have he easy run in with Blues in meltdown and home to Munster. Warriors must win at Treviso - jeez we never play well there.

Gutted the Blues allowed Warrors a try bonus point. Looks like Ospreys, Warrors and Ulster have all REALLY taken up the challenge!

If Leinster field a weak team for Ulster match, it will surely come down to who comes out the better against Munster between Warriors and Ulster.

(Or in fact Munster lose all 3 and drop out of the top 4 )


OP has been updated!

Can't see Munster losing at home twice.

Aye but Glas should be a belter at Thomond - 2 sets of forwards who don't take a backward step - Munster v Warriors -potentially a classic. Forgive my patriotism but -c'mon the Warriors

I think it'll finish:

Leinster
Ospreys
Munster
Glasgow

Before I saw the fixtures I thought Ulster would make it, but away in Galway and Thomond, following HC matches, will I think be too much. Leinster at home is hardly an easy one. Going into this in good form, but a horrible last three matches on top of a HC schedule.

I think Glasgow will beat Treviso away from home, and Connacht at home, which will be enough to see them secure 4th place.

I think Munster will beat Glasgow and the Scarlets in the next two to secure their spot.

Ospreys and Leinster will win three out of three.

Posted elsewhere but I see it finishing like this now:

Leinster 78
Ospreys 70
Scarlets 66
Munster 64
Ulster 63
Warriors 60

I don't know, good semis though.

I wish I could be as optimistic as you Roddersm but would mean us getting 5 point wins in our remaining games - I just can't see us doing that with the way we've been playing - it'll be a big ask to win all 3 games, let alone bonus pointers. Which is a shame - we needed to beat Edinburgh last game and as in previous season we haven't done quite enough but still come within a kick of winning grr

Sorry smirnoff I see the Scarlets getting maybe 13 points, 5+ 4+ 4.

That would see them sneak in in 4th place. A bonus point is crucial against Aironi but I think they should win their last 3 games.

I hope so - we could win all our remaining games but we'll need to improve, but we still need the other team's to slip up as well. I think I'm quite pessimistic after what's happened in previous seasons with Ulster and just missing out in the last few games grr.

Also am annoyed we lost to both Glasgow and Edinburgh as we could really have won both games and we played awfully against Glasgow and sounds like we didn't play too well against Edinburgh - if we'd won then we would already have been in the playoffs. And would have been 2nd!

Remember Munster's last three games are against Glasgow, us and Ulster. They hold the key.

Damn them Munster men!

My point is that it is impossible for the four teams to win all their matches. Somebody will slip up in a 8 (10) pointer.

I know, it's def going to make things interesting - just that Munster always seem to have the rub of the green against us and even if we win then there's a whole load of permutations with the other teams that could happen.

Personally I think Munster are just being selfish - their already in the HEC QF, have been in the playoffs every season since they were introduced, I think they should just give us poor lil Welsh Walians a chance for once!

Leinster 73 --> Ulster(a) - Dragons(a)
Ospreys 62 --> Dragons(h) - Aironi(a)
Munster 60 --> Scarlets(a) - Ulster(h)
Warriors 57 --> Treviso(a) - Connacht(h)
Ulster 56 --> Leinster(h) - Munster(a)
Scarlets 51 --> Aironi(a) - Munster(h) - Blues(h)

Anything less than a bonus point win today puts the Scarlets out of it

Who would bet against:
Leinster v Munster
Ospreys v Warriors

Warriors have beaten Ospreys both home and away already this reason, but I'm still hoping for a Leinster v Ospreys final. Can we play Munster instead please? Ta...

That's a possibility. My dream scenario would be
Leinster v Munster
Ospreys v Scarlets

I think the Warriors will make it. They may well get nine points from Treviso and Connacht.

They got the LBP last night as well against Munster. I think they've won practically all their other matches in the P12 too, which is great form. That's why I don't want the O's to go near them again!

Cari,
you are not running scared of the Mighty Warriors are you ? Right enough wee Hoggy was something else last night !

I know it's always said just look at winning the game but we really need 5 points today. The ideal finish for us would be third and an away trip to Swansea, Id settle for fourth and a trip to Dublin of course (better than fifth or sixth place as we are now) but it will be a much harder game and I won't be able to go see it!

21st Century Schizoid Man wrote:Cari,
you are not running scared of the Mighty Warriors are you ? Right enough wee Hoggy was something else last night !

I bloody am! Warriors are dangerous...they beat the O's both times this season and the prospect of them getting into the P12 final would make them scary. I'll admit it...I always want the easiest ride at the rodeo...

Warriors are damn good at winning 50/50 games this season. Them in the playoffs is mighty dangerous indeed. Although Leinster away would probably be too much.

I think Leinster's performance depends on how they do in the Heino. If they win it again, the won't win the P12 final, but if they get kicked out of the HC...look out. They'll be very dangerous opponents for anyone.

Cari, the worst case scenario for Leinster would be to lose in Bordeax to Clermont in an exhausting match, and as a result lose the Pro12 playoffs. It's what happened in 2010.

I think we have a far better squad now though. And a coach who seems to always get his squad management and rotation spot on.

When are the play-off semis and final - anyone know ?

Depends on who finishes 1st and 2nd and who wins the semi-finals.

Leinster definitely have a home semi-final and if they win that the final will be in Dublin. If they lose that it'll be in the home ground of the next highest ranked team left in the competition. The other home semi-final looks likely to go to Ospreys, but Munster or Glasgow could nick it.