Rabo Pro 12 - Run In - 3 Games Left

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Weekends results:

Munster 9 - 18 Leinster
Ulster 45 - 7 Aironi
Edinburgh 26 - 23 Scarlets
Warriors 31 - 3 Blues

So Scarlets just missed out on an important chance but managed a losing bonus point. Leinster made themselves safe while ensuring the pressure remains with Munster for their remaining games. Warrors and Ulster did what they needed getting full 5 points.

Remaining Games:
Leinster 68 --> Edinburgh(h) - Ulster(a) - Dragons(a)
Ospreys 58 --> Blues(a) - Dragons(h) - Aironi(a)
Munster 56 --> Warriors(h) - Scarlets(a) - Ulster(h)
Warriors 56 --> Munster(a) - Treviso(a) - Connacht(h)
Ulster 55 --> Connacht(a) - Leinster(h) - Munster(a)
Scarlets 51 --> Aironi(a) - Munster(h) - Blues(h)

I have a thread for this! grrrrr! Its prob on page 2 by now though!

Bump!

I expect Edinburgh to send the reserves to Dublin this week. A BP win would virtually guarantee top place for us, unless the O's win all 3 remaining games with a BP and score a geansai load of points, and we lose with no LBP away to Ulster and Dragons.

Mickado wrote:I expect Edinburgh to send the reserves to Dublin this week. A BP win would virtually guarantee top place for us, unless the O's win all 3 remaining games with a BP and score a geansai load of points, and we lose with no LBP away to Ulster and Dragons.

We're counting on you beating Ulster so you'd better finish top!

Well If we get a BP win this weekend and O's don't then we're home free. We can hand the game to Ulster there and then as far as I care.

Edinburgh giving Leinster an easy win in the Rabo should improve our chances of leinster fielding a second string for Ulster! Hadn't thought of that! Don't fancy our chances of beating Munster again though!!

clivemcl wrote:Edinburgh giving Leinster an easy win in the Rabo should improve our chances of leinster fielding a second string for Ulster! Hadn't thought of that! Don't fancy our chances of beating Munster again though!!

Embra have a 6 day turnaround to their semi from an away trip to Cardiff. I think they may give their top troops a hitout this week and rest them next week. Who knows though. 6 day turnaround this week too.

Mickado wrote:Well If we get a BP win this weekend and O's don't then we're home free. We can hand the game to Ulster there and then as far as I care.

I knew I liked you Bikkies!

The decision by FIRA to announce that Aironi are dead in the water at this point in this season is pretty poor.

They're bottom of the league and now literally have nothing to play for - not even pride since they've been publicly humiliated by their own union, who couldn't have the decency to wait until the end of the season.

I suspect armchair rides for all their remaining three opposition teams. Ospreys must be delighted they've been handed 5 points for the last day. Should secure them second spot.

I'd say Munster are dead cert for top 4 - probably 2nd place. Gone out of the HC they can play all their big guns while Ulster and Leinster are going to rest and protect some players for the HC semis. Still three derby games are going to test Ulster whoever is playing and I think the other two slots for playoffs will be Ospreys and Glasgow in that order. So Leinster v Glasgow and Munster v Ospreys in the semis

See ya in Dublin brenno !

I think ulster can take 9 points from Connacht and Leinster and will lose to Munster.
Means we need Warriors to only take 8 points from Munster(a) - Treviso(a) - Connacht(h)

OR

for Munster to only take only 8 points from Warriors(h) - Scarlets(a) - Ulster(h)

It all depends on how Munster react to their QF defeat. I suspect they will tear the three remaining teams apart (including Ulster)

Interesting though that there could be another knock-out game between Munster and Ulster even before the playoffs!

Ulster should concentrate on Europe now. They have a big opportunity in the HC.

Feckless Rogue wrote:Ulster should concentrate on Europe now. They have a big opportunity in the HC.

Feic off we want the double!

Agreed Rodders! I think we can manage the next two Rabo wins without sacrificing anything in the HC.

It's very hard to win both. Guy Noves says it's pretty much impossible to do a domestic European double. It takes to many big games to close together. I know Tigers achieved it. I don't know if Toulouse have. If they have, then it was a long time ago, because they haven't in recent years. Leinster fell short in the PRO12 final last year.

Feckless... it was a joke mate ...... well sort of.......

I still think we can make playoffs without sacrificing anything. Surely you arent saying we should try not to make playoffs?

Clive I won't be throwing the towel in in the Rabo just yet. We can still make the play offs.

I do agree with Feckless that the HEC has to be the big priority now though. We're 2 games away from lifting the biggest trophy out there.

I have a feeling we may have a tough time getting up for a tough away game in Connacht next week after last weekend though. It will be a huge test.

No, they just have to get the balance of squad rotation right. Their PRO12 playoff rivals don't. And Ulster don't have the biggest squad. I'm sure Ulsters top priority is this HC semi final with Ednburgh. So I think they might just miss out on the playoffs, but it mightn't be such a bad thing for their hopes of conquering Europe.

Theres no doubt which i'd prefer. But we may look to rest players v leinster, but they may be fielding a weak side anyway (weaker than we would). Which is why I think these two games are still winnable.

But making the playoffs and the HC final would see a 5week period from 28th April of:

HC SF
Rabo Munster
Rabo SF
HC F
Rabo F

I'd go full strength v Connacht, rest 4/5 key players v Leinster, and then re-assess after HC Semi. If we lose the semi we will want to know its still all to play for for the Rabo!

Feic that Clive I want Pienaar, Cave, Best, Muller, Wallace, Terblanche and Ferris in cotton wool until the HEC SF!

Faloon, Spence, Paul Marshall, D'arcy etc. could be doing with a run out against Connacht, along with a few others. I suspect we may need to look at our front row options too .

Would love to head down to Galway but can't face that feicin drive again this week .

roddersm wrote:Clive I won't be throwing the towel in in the Rabo just yet. We can still make the play offs.

I do agree with Feckless that the HEC has to be the big priority now though. We're 2 games away from lifting the biggest trophy out there.

I have a feeling we may have a tough time getting up for a tough away game in Connacht next week after last weekend though. It will be a huge test.

Rodders

Do you not think guys like D'Arcy, Whitten, Spence, Diack, Falloon, Barker, Stevenson, McAllister, Brady, etc will be very highly motivated to do well? Most will know that the best they can hope for in the HC is a seat on the bench but the Rabo will still give them an excellent opportunity of a chance at silverware.

I'm sure they will Rava but it's a very tough fixture to follow up maybe the biggest win in our history. In fact I can't think of a tougher one.

It will be extremely physical and Connaght will be super motivated and give no quarter.

This is a huge challenge for whoever starts.

They've announced the same squad (Not that that tells us anything!)

Feckless Rogue wrote:It's very hard to win both. Guy Noves says it's pretty much impossible to do a domestic European double. It takes to many big games to close together. I know Tigers achieved it. I don't know if Toulouse have. If they have, then it was a long time ago, because they haven't in recent years. Leinster fell short in the PRO12 final last year.

Toulouse did it in 96. Won both.

They lost the top 14 final in 2003 and won the HC

Biarritz Won the top 14 in 06 and lost the HC final to Munster

Leicester did a double double in 01 and 02. Although I think they lost the final the 2nd year, but they topped the league both times they won the HC and I think back then the league winner was crowned champs

Celtic/Magners/Rabo Double with the HC has never been done. But Leinster fell at the last hurdle last year. Lost the Magners final for the 2nd year in a row.

Still in with a shout this year.

Also. If Leinster and Ulster win their HC semis. They could end up playing each other 3 times in 4 weeks.

I still think It will be a very difficult task to qualify. My original prediction that we will finish 5th still stands.

5th would be a decent finish given the start we had. We missed Muller in particular badly in September I think.

I won't be gving up the ghost until the fat lady sings though....

The Munster v Warriors match will tell us all. If Warriors beat Munster our qualification is directly in our hands with a likely playoff for the playoffs v munster taking place after the HC Semi. Yikes!

But like I say Munster will be hurting and looking to hurt someone, that someone is Warriors.

clivemcl wrote:Theres no doubt which i'd prefer. But we may look to rest players v leinster, but they may be fielding a weak side anyway (weaker than we would). Which is why I think these two games are still winnable.

But making the playoffs and the HC semifinal would see a 5week period from 28th April of:

HC SF
Rabo Munster
Rabo SF
HC F Rest weekend
Rabo F

I'd go full strength v Connacht, rest 4/5 key players v Leinster, and then re-assess after HC Semi. If we lose the semi we will want to know its still all to play for for the Rabo!

clive, fixed that for you - no charge!

Asbo,

I know the Weedgies are your team but, can you explain the huge differences in the fortunes of the Scottish sides in the 2 competitions?

As far as I can see it has not been because they have played significantly different squads in the 2 comps like Munster and Leinster can afford to do. Has it just been luck that they have been on the wrong side of the score board in the Pro12 and the right side in the HEC?

Taking nothing away from their magnificant HEC run, but it is difficult to equate those performances with some we have seen in the league.

Tough one, MrsP, i suspect it's a combination of factors:
1. The two teams play very different style of rugby - Lineen and Co have made Glasgow very hard to beat and capable of grinding out wins on the back of a territorial game with a strong pack; Bradley's outfit seem to like to gamble and throw the ball around far more, leaking plenty of tries, but scoring plenty too, varying their style and point of attack
2. Edinburgh simply have woeful back-up players, whereas we Weegies have fairly decent back-up
3. Edinburgh clearly made the decision around Christmas time to chuck in the league 0 the team they put out for the second leg of the 1872 Cup game would have struggled against your lad's side

Spot on Asbo, Glasgow have been consistently tight all year, much more suited to a league format where small wins and draws (4!!) all add up and keep you in the mix. Whereas Edinburgh are far more cavalier and are shining in a knockout competition where the “we’re going to score 1 more than you” mentality coupled with a bit of luck (every team needs it) has seen them though.

Now please explain why both Scottish teams are doing well and 2 Irish teams are doing well but our national teams are gash.

Both national coaches to blame??

Mickado wrote:Spot on Asbo, Glasgow have been consistently tight all year, much more suited to a league format where small wins and draws (4!!) all add up and keep you in the mix. Whereas Edinburgh are far more cavalier and are shining in a knockout competition where the “we’re going to score 1 more than you” mentality coupled with a bit of luck (every team needs it) has seen them though.

Now please explain why both Scottish teams are doing well and 2 Irish teams are doing well but our national teams are gash.

Both national coaches to blame??

I assume you mean 3 irish teams?

Munster are doing well?

3rd in the league

I don't imagine the Blues to completely roll over for the Ospreys but the blues really have little to play for this weekend. Hopefully see the Os guaranty a qualifying spot for the playoffs.

clivemcl wrote:3rd in the league

For now

maestegmafia wrote:I don't imagine the Blues to completely roll over for the Ospreys but the blues really have little to play for this weekend. Hopefully see the Os guaranty a qualifying spot for the playoffs.

They did pretty much gift the Scarlets a result when they did have something to play for though...

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:Munster are doing well?

I think he meant Connacht.....

clivemcl wrote:

Mickado wrote:Spot on Asbo, Glasgow have been consistently tight all year, much more suited to a league format where small wins and draws (4!!) all add up and keep you in the mix. Whereas Edinburgh are far more cavalier and are shining in a knockout competition where the “we’re going to score 1 more than you” mentality coupled with a bit of luck (every team needs it) has seen them though.

Now please explain why both Scottish teams are doing well and 2 Irish teams are doing well but our national teams are gash.

Both national coaches to blame??

I assume you mean 3 irish teams?

Was wondering if someone would spot that....

Mickado wrote:Spot on Asbo, Glasgow have been consistently tight all year, much more suited to a league format where small wins and draws (4!!) all add up and keep you in the mix. Whereas Edinburgh are far more cavalier and are shining in a knockout competition where the “we’re going to score 1 more than you” mentality coupled with a bit of luck (every team needs it) has seen them though.

Now please explain why both Scottish teams are doing well and 2 Irish teams are doing well but our national teams are gash.

Both national coaches to blame??

Mick, Can't think of any other reason

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

Mickado wrote:Spot on Asbo, Glasgow have been consistently tight all year, much more suited to a league format where small wins and draws (4!!) all add up and keep you in the mix. Whereas Edinburgh are far more cavalier and are shining in a knockout competition where the “we’re going to score 1 more than you” mentality coupled with a bit of luck (every team needs it) has seen them though.

Now please explain why both Scottish teams are doing well and 2 Irish teams are doing well but our national teams are gash.

Both national coaches to blame??

Mick, Can't think of any other reason

I can think of another reason for the Irish situation.

..... The plot thickens........

MrsP wrote:

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

Mickado wrote:Spot on Asbo, Glasgow have been consistently tight all year, much more suited to a league format where small wins and draws (4!!) all add up and keep you in the mix. Whereas Edinburgh are far more cavalier and are shining in a knockout competition where the “we’re going to score 1 more than you” mentality coupled with a bit of luck (every team needs it) has seen them though.

Now please explain why both Scottish teams are doing well and 2 Irish teams are doing well but our national teams are gash.

Both national coaches to blame??

Mick, Can't think of any other reason

I can think of another reason for the Irish situation.

Aye, fair play, MrsP - too many Ulstermen. Now why didn't I think of that?

Nearly right Asbo, nearly right!

You know me too well!

Tough gig for the Warriors but they are a tough team and will front up to Munster -like Ulster did on Sunday. C'mon the Warriors