Taking the upset, Murray over Nadal

by socal1976 Fri 30 Mar 2012, 3:23 am

First topic message reminder :

Rafa I think is still stuggling to find his best tennis in Miami. I feel like Andy is on the cusp of getting over the hump. We have grumblings from Nadal about the knee, which is most disconcerting considering the oncoming clay court season, the most important stretch of the season for Nadal. I believe that Andy and Novak will fight it out in the final. Andy ofcourse has to hit a high percentage of first serves like many players that basically dictates how effective he will be as his second serve is just not a very good shot. Murray will also have to be aggressive from the get go with the forehand. Nadal has owned Andy of late but I think Murray is in better form, Nadal looks out of sorts and if he does have knee problems and isn't able to turn in massive points in the clay court season he might be in trouble in the points race. There seems to be an unease about nadal and his camp nowadays. Not like the turmoil of 09 but there seems to be some angst coming out of that camp right now.

by lydian Fri 30 Mar 2012, 7:20 pm

To be frank, Nadal hasnt looked happy on court for a long time... I think there's alot more going on in his head than he lets on.
He's not enjoying the game right now and I also think the 6-week break was a mistake (even though he maybe felt he needed it) as its probably reduced the strength of his knee supporting muscles and slow HC was probably the worse surface to come back on when nursing knee pain since AO'12. I even think the resignation from the ATP council was also a symptom of him not being happy in the game right now. You can imagine a scenario where he just thinks about life and health beyond tennis and says "you know what, I've done most of what I set out to achieve, I've had enough of this, time to get a life..."

by Danny_1982 Fri 30 Mar 2012, 7:38 pm

Gutted, I was looking forward to that.

Not great news for the final either, as Murray will be seriously undercooked after another withdrawal. Hopefully he will be putting in some serious practice to try and minimise the rustiness.

As for Rafa, I didn't realise until I just heard a commentator say that he hasn't won a title since Roland Garros last year. That's a long time for someone of his quality.

I agree with you socal, his demeanour has been a bit flat compared to usual. Not the Nadal we are used to. I hope he can get back to his usual self both physically and mentally. Love him or hate him, he's good for the game.

by Mad for Chelsea Fri 30 Mar 2012, 9:16 pm

yep the "Fognini effect" will be in full force on Sunday. If Murray overcomes it it should surely go down as one of the greatest wins of all time. If he loses as expected it will just be another title to socal with a massive asterisk next to it...

Wink

by socal1976 Fri 30 Mar 2012, 10:42 pm

Mad for Chelsea wrote:yep the "Fognini effect" will be in full force on Sunday. If Murray overcomes it it should surely go down as one of the greatest wins of all time. If he loses as expected it will just be another title to socal with a massive asterisk next to it...

It is obvious you don't understand my fogninni argument that you so poetical call the fogninni effect. Novak was playing Foggy to tie the the all time record and because fogninni couldn't play their was a five day gap in his schedule in the middle of a tournament along with having to play Roger to tie the all time wins record as opposed to foggy. It was a very unusual and particular circumstance that involved the streak. And again for the one hundredth time I think it caused Novak to have a rusty first two sets, I have stated before that Fed was playing well enough that Novak could have played well and still lost. IE what happened in the 4th set when he served for the set and fed found a way to break back. Hardly comparable in the least to murray playing in a master's series, don't forget what was going on with the streak at the time. No parallel exists.

by noleisthebest Fri 30 Mar 2012, 10:48 pm

socal1976 wrote:
Mad for Chelsea wrote:yep the "Fognini effect" will be in full force on Sunday. If Murray overcomes it it should surely go down as one of the greatest wins of all time. If he loses as expected it will just be another title to socal with a massive asterisk next to it...

It is obvious you don't understand my fogninni argument that you so poetical call the fogninni effect. Novak was playing Foggy to tie the the all time record and because fogninni couldn't play their was a five game gap in his schedule in the middle of a tournament along with having to play Roger to tie the all time wins record as opposed to foggy. It was a very unusual and particular circumstance that involved the streak. And again for the one hundredth time I think it caused Novak to have a rusty first two sets, I have stated before that Fed was playing well enough that Novak could have played well and still lost. IE what happened in the 4th set when he served for the set and fed found a way to break back. Hardly comparable in the least to murray playing in a master's series, don't forget what was going on with the streak at the time. No parallel exists.

I must say I am still annoyed Fognini couldn't have been bother to show face...the worst was he competed the very next week. It really sucks mad

by Danny_1982 Fri 30 Mar 2012, 10:51 pm

How do you see the final going socal?

(Assuming Monaco doesn't produce a hell of an upset)

by Mad for Chelsea Fri 30 Mar 2012, 10:58 pm

socal1976 wrote:
Mad for Chelsea wrote:yep the "Fognini effect" will be in full force on Sunday. If Murray overcomes it it should surely go down as one of the greatest wins of all time. If he loses as expected it will just be another title to socal with a massive asterisk next to it...

It is obvious you don't understand my fogninni argument that you so poetical call the fogninni effect. Novak was playing Foggy to tie the the all time record and because fogninni couldn't play their was a five game gap in his schedule in the middle of a tournament along with having to play Roger to tie the all time wins record as opposed to foggy. It was a very unusual and particular circumstance that involved the streak. And again for the one hundredth time I think it caused Novak to have a rusty first two sets, I have stated before that Fed was playing well enough that Novak could have played well and still lost. IE what happened in the 4th set when he served for the set and fed found a way to break back. Hardly comparable in the least to murray playing in a master's series, don't forget what was going on with the streak at the time. No parallel exists.

chill, it was meant as a friendly bit of banter, not a sly dig, sorry if you misinterpreted, I thought the Wink

smiley gave it away, but it's not easy to convey tone of voice over the internet Very Happy

.

For what it's worth NITB I always think it's rather staggering Fognini didn't compete, given it's likely to be his only chance to play in a GS QF. Even more staggering when you consider he played a week later...

by socal1976 Fri 30 Mar 2012, 11:05 pm

noleisthebest wrote:
socal1976 wrote:
Mad for Chelsea wrote:yep the "Fognini effect" will be in full force on Sunday. If Murray overcomes it it should surely go down as one of the greatest wins of all time. If he loses as expected it will just be another title to socal with a massive asterisk next to it...

Precisely, Nitb, Novak had a really bad schedule in the french he played 4 days in a row and then didn't play for 4 and half days. This with all the pressure of the streak. And nobody can tell me that playing foggy to tie the record and then having that called off and having to play for the record against Roger didn't impact Novak psychologically. And as a Novak fan I think the layoff caused him to be a bit rusty and sub-level in the first two sets. He played well in sets 3 and 4 and still lost set 4, although he should have served it out. So he might have been at his best and still lost, but I think if he didn't have the extra stress of tieing the streak and the long layover he would have made it even closer than it was and even had a shot to win.

I must say I am still annoyed Fognini couldn't have been bother to show face...the worst was he competed the very next week. It really sucks

by Tenez Fri 30 Mar 2012, 11:06 pm

socal1976 wrote:It is obvious you don't understand my fogninni argument that you so poetical call the fogninni effect.

Do yuo expect us to understand it? Laugh

Yet you find "hypothetical" the influence of technology on the developement of a player and his tennis style?

by socal1976 Fri 30 Mar 2012, 11:09 pm

Ok Tenez you got me, if the game was played with heavier racquets and gut strings fed would be the best. Just like he has been with the luxilons and the slower conditions. Kudos to him, does it really make any difference who would have the most grandslams in hypothetical Tenez world?

by Tenez Fri 30 Mar 2012, 11:16 pm

My point was not that Fed would necessarily be better than Nadal but that the difference in conds they grow up can seriously affect their H2H.

Nadal v Djoko H2H won't carry the same problem as they are virtually of the same generation, growing with the same material available...though Nadal clearly had access to better training "method" earlier than Djoko.

by socal1976 Fri 30 Mar 2012, 11:28 pm

Danny_1982 wrote:How do you see the final going socal?

(Assuming Monaco doesn't produce a hell of an upset)

Excellent question Danny. I think it is safe to say that mr. Monaco better start packing for Monaco and book his flight on sunday it is cheaper that way. Now as to how I see the final. Well last time the two play Novak turned in a stinker of a performance but I think Murray also served at a much higher first percentage than he usually does. I think unless Andy hits close to 70 percent first serves that Novak will win otherwise. At the AO semi final Novak pulverized Andy's second serve delivery with Murray winning less than 30 % of his points on second serve. Both guys aren't overwhelming on serve and both guys are incredible returners so in this scenario whoever gets a higher percentage of first serves in is going to be at a huge advantage. Of the two guys Novak can better play behind his second serve as he has a better second delivery than murray. But for murray to win he better not give Novak a lot of looks at his weaker second serve, that is what he was most successful doing in Dubai and did not manage to do enough of at the AO.

by banbrotam Fri 30 Mar 2012, 11:29 pm

There's certainly some serious pressure for Nadal in the upcoming clay court season

Nole was already beating him, Roger and Andy have recently joined in the fun and suddenley you can see a scenario where, come the end of the US open Rafa might (and I emphasise 'might!!) be World No.4

Ironically, what helps Rafa during the hard court season (the turgid slowness) might now be a hinderance on the clay - given that the difference between the two surfaces, particularly at Madrid, are minimal, i.e. I actually think that Fed and Murray go into the Clay court season actually believing they can beat Rafa

We will see

by socal1976 Fri 30 Mar 2012, 11:30 pm

If Murray is in the mid to high sixties or more on serve then he can definetly win. If he is under mid 60s I don't think he has much of a chance.

by banbrotam Fri 30 Mar 2012, 11:32 pm

socal1976 wrote:
Danny_1982 wrote:How do you see the final going socal?

(Assuming Monaco doesn't produce a hell of an upset)

Excellent question Danny. I think it is safe to say that mr. Monaco better start packing for Monaco and book his flight on sunday it is cheaper that way. Now as to how I see the final. Well last time the two play Novak turned in a stinker of a performance but I think Murray also served at a much higher first percentage than he usually does. I think unless Andy hits close to 70 percent first serves that Novak will win otherwise. At the AO semi final Novak pulverized Andy's second serve delivery with Murray winning less than 30 % of his points on second serve. Both guys aren't overwhelming on serve and both guys are incredible returners so in this scenario whoever gets a higher percentage of first serves in is going to be at a huge advantage. Of the two guys Novak can better play behind his second serve as he has a better second delivery than murray. But for murray to win he better not give Novak a lot of looks at his weaker second serve, that is what he was most successful doing in Dubai and did not manage to do enough of at the AO.

A Nole victory. Andy relies on rythmn and hence often looks terrible in opening rounds - but he's had none. Can't see him suddenly getting it - he's not Roger who you imagine can pick up a racquet after not practicing for 6 months and still look like the GOAT

by socal1976 Fri 30 Mar 2012, 11:37 pm

That is unusually negative for a Murray fan Banbro, but i can't say that I disagree with how you see it. I think novak will win. I think he doesn't want to lose two in a row to murray regardless of whether it is a slam or not and defending points here in miami will go a long way to helping him hold the #1 spot.

by banbrotam Fri 30 Mar 2012, 11:40 pm

socal1976 wrote:That is unusually negative for a Murray fan Banbro, but i can't say that I disagree with how you see it. I think novak will win. I think he doesn't want to lose two in a row to murray regardless of whether it is a slam or not and defending points here in miami will go a long way to helping him hold the #1 spot.

I don't always think Andy will win!! And i think he'll have a good clay court season

by Danny_1982 Sat 31 Mar 2012, 12:24 am

So whoever serves better, wins. Right? I agree with that. Murray's serve does tend to magically pick up in these matches occasionally, but it will be interesting to see how aggressively he approaches the match.

I love Murray v Djokovic matches. They negate each others strengths so effectively. I hope this one is another classic, but due to Murray being a bit undercooked and Djokovic playing so well I think Djokovic might edge it too.

by CaledonianCraig Sat 31 Mar 2012, 11:52 am

I think it will be very close. Neither player has looked at their best in Miami and the head-to-heads suggest it will be close as well. I agree that Andy's first serve will be key to success but Djokovic has struggled a bit in that department as well so we shall see. I hope we see Andy take on an aggressive approach and take command of rallies before Novak does as that is another key to success or failure for Andy. Too passive and he will lose. Aggressive then I fancy his chances. Still it should be a cracker.

by reckoner Sat 31 Mar 2012, 11:53 am

Nole in straights, no question.

by CaledonianCraig Sat 31 Mar 2012, 11:56 am

reckoner wrote:Nole in straights, no question.

Hmm that would be the first such win for Novak over Andy in four years.

by reckoner Sat 31 Mar 2012, 12:02 pm

Yeah but Murray is looking a bit out of form and hasn't had a chance to play himself into form with all these walkovers. It's very possible.

by CaledonianCraig Sat 31 Mar 2012, 12:15 pm

Oh it is possible but in your previous post you made it found like it was definite with the 'no question remark. It is also fair to say Novak hasn't been impeccable in Miami bring stretched to tie-breaks by Ferret and Monaco.

by reckoner Sat 31 Mar 2012, 12:20 pm

CaledonianCraig wrote:Oh it is possible but in your previous post you made it found like it was definite with the 'no question remark. It is also fair to say Novak hasn't been impeccable in Miami bring stretched to tie-breaks by Ferret and Monaco.

It's definitely my opinion. I really think it'll be a straightforward win for the Djoker unless Murray has radically raised his game. I have not been encouraged by what I've seen of Murray thus far.

by CaledonianCraig Sat 31 Mar 2012, 1:10 pm

That will be the first for four years then - a straight sets win for Djokovic over Murray. What sort of form do you think Novak is in?

by reckoner Sat 31 Mar 2012, 1:13 pm

Might as well go all out when making predictions!

Djoker seems to be in very good form but drops a level in the second set. Perhaps Murray can take advantage of that? I just think it is a big ask given the little match play Murray's had.

by noleisthebest Sat 31 Mar 2012, 1:24 pm

CaledonianCraig wrote:
reckoner wrote:Nole in straights, no question.

Hmm that would be the first such win for Novak over Andy in four years.

Didn't you watch last year's AO final ? Cool

by CaledonianCraig Sat 31 Mar 2012, 1:24 pm

Well we will see. Should be a cracker in any case.

by CaledonianCraig Sat 31 Mar 2012, 1:29 pm

noleisthebest wrote:
CaledonianCraig wrote:
reckoner wrote:Nole in straights, no question.

Hmm that would be the first such win for Novak over Andy in four years.
Didn't you watch last year's AO final ?

Shoot (as the yanks say) how could I forget that. In any case I think it has the makings of being a great match.

by socal1976 Sat 31 Mar 2012, 7:47 pm

reckoner wrote:Yeah but Murray is looking a bit out of form and hasn't had a chance to play himself into form with all these walkovers. It's very possible.

Oh No reckoner, now you have done it. Are you suggesting that having "too much rest" is going to hurt Murray's preparation in a big match? Look out, now a rabid band of fedworshippers will hound you online with constant posts about the Fogninni effect err eh .... I mean the Nadal effect. I mean I was roundly denounced by the virtual la federera Nostra for my post that a nearly 5 day gap in Novak's french open could have caused him to have a couple of rusty sets in the FO semi of 2011. And how in Novak's case he had the double whammy of also failing to tie the all time consecutive wins mark against Foggy and having to do it against Fed, I mean that couldn't have possibly impacted Novak psychologically. Look out now that you have made the bold assertion that "too much rest" could hurt Murray a wild band of online federerphiles will spit venomous acrimony from their keyboards at you. Eventhough Murray has 3 days between playing while Novak before his match had 4 and half. Attack Fed extremists now we have the "Nadal effect". Bring out the tar and feathers, the pitchforks and the torches, and let fire for reckoner's crime against man and nature of claiming that "too much rest" may hurt murray.

by **JuliusHMarx** Sat 31 Mar 2012, 7:57 pm

socal, is it necessary to turn everybody's posts into your own attack on 'Fed extremists'? (Perhaps that should read "It is not necessary...")

If you want to comment on reckoner's post, how about actually commenting on reckoner's post instead of digressing into the same old routine?

by socal1976 Sat 31 Mar 2012, 8:02 pm

I find it pertinent to the conversation at hand. I have been hounded for the socalled Foggy effect, which people distort and try to use against me to no avail. I would like to know if the same exact logic I used, and by the way the foggy effect was much more complex than Murray's walkover in a masters, now does this exact logic release the ire of the Fed attack squad?

by reckoner Sat 31 Mar 2012, 8:23 pm

socal1976 wrote:
reckoner wrote:Yeah but Murray is looking a bit out of form and hasn't had a chance to play himself into form with all these walkovers. It's very possible.

Oh No reckoner, now you have done it. Are you suggesting that having "too much rest" is going to hurt Murray's preparation in a big match? Look out, now a rabid band of fedworshippers will hound you online with constant posts about the Fogninni effect err eh .... I mean the Nadal effect. I mean I was roundly denounced by the virtual la federera Nostra for my post that a nearly 5 day gap in Novak's french open could have caused him to have a couple of rusty sets in the FO semi of 2011. And how in Novak's case he had the double whammy of also failing to tie the all time consecutive wins mark against Foggy and having to do it against Fed, I mean that couldn't have possibly impacted Novak psychologically. Look out now that you have made the bold assertion that "too much rest" could hurt Murray a wild band of online federerphiles will spit venomous acrimony from their keyboards at you. Eventhough Murray has 3 days between playing while Novak before his match had 4 and half. Attack Fed extremists now we have the "Nadal effect". Bring out the tar and feathers, the pitchforks and the torches, and let fire for reckoner's crime against man and nature of claiming that "too much rest" may hurt murray.

OK I take it back, happy?

by time please Sat 31 Mar 2012, 10:16 pm

socal1976 wrote:I find it pertinent to the conversation at hand. I have been hounded for the socalled Foggy effect, which people distort and try to use against me to no avail. I would like to know if the same exact logic I used, and by the way the foggy effect was much more complex than Murray's walkover in a masters, now does this exact logic release the ire of the Fed attack squad?

https://www.606v2.com/t8755-fogninniiiiiiiii

I hardly think this a rabid attack - I do remember a lot of people teasing you in a very good humoured way for weeks afterwards - it was one of the funniest themes of the summer on here. Wink

Love to know how the Foggy effect was so much more complex than the Raodal effect?

Yours,

Private TP
Fed Attack Squad Wink

by noleisthebest Sat 31 Mar 2012, 10:23 pm

time please wrote:
Love to know how the Foggy effect was so much more complex than the Raodal effect?

Yours,

Private TP
Fed Attack Squad

If you ask me, I don't have the foggiest! Laugh

by socal1976 Sun 01 Apr 2012, 6:08 pm

time please wrote:
socal1976 wrote:I find it pertinent to the conversation at hand. I have been hounded for the socalled Foggy effect, which people distort and try to use against me to no avail. I would like to know if the same exact logic I used, and by the way the foggy effect was much more complex than Murray's walkover in a masters, now does this exact logic release the ire of the Fed attack squad?

https://www.606v2.com/t8755-fogninniiiiiiiii

I hardly think this a rabid attack - I do remember a lot of people teasing you in a very good humoured way for weeks afterwards - it was one of the funniest themes of the summer on here.

Love to know how the Foggy effect was so much more complex than the Raodal effect?

Yours,

Private TP
Fed Attack Squad

TP, I am happy to have supplied our humble tennis chat the most controversial and talked about thread of its infancy. The fact that the forces of FAS nearly a year afterwards mouth it unknowingly as their battle cry brings a smile to my face. It shows I am doing something right.And I stand by my position Fogninniiiiii give my 4th slam back!!!!!

by Josiah Maiestas Mon 02 Apr 2012, 4:12 pm

Is it Nadal's fault, Murray losing to Djoker? Whistle

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