2019 General Election

by Luckless Pedestrian Mon Dec 09, 2019 7:49 am

First topic message reminder :

The key questions for me:

How many Leave voters still want Brexit;

Of those who do, how many put Brexit before all else;

What damage the Brexit party will do the the Conservatives' hopes of taking Labour leave seats.

by **Galted** Thu Dec 12, 2019 6:33 pm

Be typical if it peters out and stays 2-1.

by Duty281 Thu Dec 12, 2019 6:33 pm

Those early swings and that early Tory gain show it’s going to be a painful night for Labour. No doubt.

Also looks pretty definite that the Brexit Party are taking more Labour votes than Tory ones.

by Muscular-mouse Thu Dec 12, 2019 6:38 pm

miaow wrote:
Muscular-mouse wrote:
miaow wrote:The issue for the SNP is - how do they force another referendum? They can bang on about it but if the Coservative & Unionist Party majority is big enough, there literally is no mandate. Literally speaking.

They can't force a referendum, but if they are denied for 5 years by a tory government then this will only make the independence support increase because there will be more fuel added to the fire by saying that the English are blocking our right to decide etc. In 5 years if the election is closer between labour and conservatives and the SNP win again then they will get their referendum but with a lot more public support which will have been built up over 5 years of a tory government denying them.

Well, yes, but then 5 years is 5 years. That's the point.

It looks like Labour is finished as an electoral force unless some kind of surprising moderation occurs that finds a new niche like New Labour did. The more likely scenario is, at best, Labour peg the Tories back to a slim majority or possibly coalition govt again. Still, that doesn't deliver a mandata for independence or a referendum either.

The Tories have barely ever been more inept, and yet they've held power for a decade and will continue to as well. As the incumbent govt it's only increasingly likely that they hold on to power.

So that's the point. People misues mandate in the media to mean something entirely different. There is no mandate because the SNP cannot bring down the Tory majority if it is anywhere near as sizeable as the exit poll suggests.

Scotland can bang on about 'England blocking their vote'...but yeah, that's generally how it works when you lose. They lost in 2014. Cannot see a Tory govt agreeing to another one. It only happened last time because of the Lib Dems.

5 years is the max.

A Scottish independence referendum has already been passed by the Scottish parliament. The snp have won the Scottish election in 2015, 2017 and again in 2019. Their main policy is to have a 2nd referendum on independence. The UK parliament can't keep denying them.

by Guest Thu Dec 12, 2019 6:38 pm

Blyth was won by 700 votes - Lib Dems and Greens won around 3000 votes combined, never minded the 3500 odd the Brexit Party took as well.

That's the reality of tactical voting. Neeeeeeever works because people don't care. Too wrapped up in the idea of self importance and "can't vote for Corbyn/Labour" etc. Can hardly blame them about Corbyn, but no one really votes tactically - they want other people to.

by Muscular-mouse Thu Dec 12, 2019 6:40 pm

If Labour, the Green and Liberal Democrats worked together to form a remain alliance then this election would have turned out differently. Instead the Lib dems and Labour went head to head resulting in a tory win.

by **Dolphin Ziggler** Thu Dec 12, 2019 6:40 pm

I did. But it was a Lib Dem vote.

Labour losing in the kind of places that celebrated Thatcher’s death shows just how bad they’ve done

by JDizzle Thu Dec 12, 2019 6:40 pm

Pretty much in line with the exit poll so far.

by **Pal Joey** Thu Dec 12, 2019 6:40 pm

So it looks like it will still be 5 Eyes rather than 4 Eyes. Never been a huge fan of Coca Cola.

by Guest Thu Dec 12, 2019 6:41 pm

Muscular-mouse wrote:
miaow wrote:
Muscular-mouse wrote:
miaow wrote:The issue for the SNP is - how do they force another referendum? They can bang on about it but if the Coservative & Unionist Party majority is big enough, there literally is no mandate. Literally speaking.

They can't force a referendum, but if they are denied for 5 years by a tory government then this will only make the independence support increase because there will be more fuel added to the fire by saying that the English are blocking our right to decide etc. In 5 years if the election is closer between labour and conservatives and the SNP win again then they will get their referendum but with a lot more public support which will have been built up over 5 years of a tory government denying them.

Well, yes, but then 5 years is 5 years. That's the point.

It looks like Labour is finished as an electoral force unless some kind of surprising moderation occurs that finds a new niche like New Labour did. The more likely scenario is, at best, Labour peg the Tories back to a slim majority or possibly coalition govt again. Still, that doesn't deliver a mandata for independence or a referendum either.

The Tories have barely ever been more inept, and yet they've held power for a decade and will continue to as well. As the incumbent govt it's only increasingly likely that they hold on to power.

So that's the point. People misues mandate in the media to mean something entirely different. There is no mandate because the SNP cannot bring down the Tory majority if it is anywhere near as sizeable as the exit poll suggests.

Scotland can bang on about 'England blocking their vote'...but yeah, that's generally how it works when you lose. They lost in 2014. Cannot see a Tory govt agreeing to another one. It only happened last time because of the Lib Dems.

5 years is the max.

A Scottish independence referendum has already been passed by the Scottish parliament. The snp have won the Scottish election in 2015, 2017 and again in 2019. Their main policy is to have a 2nd referendum on independence. The UK parliament can't keep denying them.

You'll have to help me out here as I'm not too hot on Holyrood and how it works - but doesn't it need legislation in Scotland to pass, and then Westminster to pass a refendum bill as well?

In which case I'm still struggling to see how the SNP can force the issue unless there's something built in to devolution that demands Holyrood can force Westminster...because the UK parliamentary SNP MPs in Scotland can't do a thing.

by Muscular-mouse Thu Dec 12, 2019 6:46 pm

miaow wrote:
Muscular-mouse wrote:
miaow wrote:
Muscular-mouse wrote:
miaow wrote:The issue for the SNP is - how do they force another referendum? They can bang on about it but if the Coservative & Unionist Party majority is big enough, there literally is no mandate. Literally speaking.

They can't force a referendum, but if they are denied for 5 years by a tory government then this will only make the independence support increase because there will be more fuel added to the fire by saying that the English are blocking our right to decide etc. In 5 years if the election is closer between labour and conservatives and the SNP win again then they will get their referendum but with a lot more public support which will have been built up over 5 years of a tory government denying them.

Well, yes, but then 5 years is 5 years. That's the point.

It looks like Labour is finished as an electoral force unless some kind of surprising moderation occurs that finds a new niche like New Labour did. The more likely scenario is, at best, Labour peg the Tories back to a slim majority or possibly coalition govt again. Still, that doesn't deliver a mandata for independence or a referendum either.

The Tories have barely ever been more inept, and yet they've held power for a decade and will continue to as well. As the incumbent govt it's only increasingly likely that they hold on to power.

So that's the point. People misues mandate in the media to mean something entirely different. There is no mandate because the SNP cannot bring down the Tory majority if it is anywhere near as sizeable as the exit poll suggests.

Scotland can bang on about 'England blocking their vote'...but yeah, that's generally how it works when you lose. They lost in 2014. Cannot see a Tory govt agreeing to another one. It only happened last time because of the Lib Dems.

5 years is the max.

A Scottish independence referendum has already been passed by the Scottish parliament. The snp have won the Scottish election in 2015, 2017 and again in 2019. Their main policy is to have a 2nd referendum on independence. The UK parliament can't keep denying them.

You'll have to help me out here as I'm not too hot on Hollyrood and how it works - but doesn't it need legislation in Scotland to pass, and then Westminster to pass a refendum bill as well?

In which case I'm still struggling to see how the SNP can force the issue unless there's something built in to devolution that demands Hollyrood can force Westminster...because the UK parliamentary SNP MPs in Scotland can't do a thing.

Yes it needs Westminster to make it legal under UK law.

The coalition government had a big majority in 2010 and they were both pro-unionist but they still gave the SNP their referendum because of the support it had in Scotland. That support is massive now. I am pro-unionist but I can't see how the UK government can ignore it.

by Guest Thu Dec 12, 2019 6:54 pm

Really? You think Boris' Tory Party plays by the rules?

I can see quite easily how the Tories avoid it - because there's a very clear probability that the Yes vote would win, where it was unlikely last time (everything felt unlikely pre-Brexit). That, and the fact that he's got a huge majority by the looks of things.

by **Dolphin Ziggler** Thu Dec 12, 2019 7:12 pm

Turnout down in 4/5 seats so far

by Duty281 Thu Dec 12, 2019 7:35 pm

JDizzle wrote:Pretty much in line with the exit poll so far.

Yep, Labour on a permanent downswing it seems.

Oh well, time to pay the broadband bill! Will be interesting to see if Corbyn actually resigns. Every election he’s led Labour into has ranged from failure to outright disaster and this is the biggest disaster of the lot. But if he doesn’t resign, because he’s extraordinarily stubborn, it could actually be difficult for Labour to force him out.

by JDizzle Thu Dec 12, 2019 7:39 pm

Corbyn’s gone. I think he was gone even if they won 260 odd seats again and it was a hung parliament.

It the Corbyn party now though. So will be interesting to see whether the membership show any introspection about what wrong when choosing the next leader.

by Duty281 Thu Dec 12, 2019 7:55 pm

Journalists (and the BP defectors) have hopefully learnt now that the Brexit Party are taking chunks off the Labour vote in the north and that Farage was right to say that.

by **Dolphin Ziggler** Thu Dec 12, 2019 8:26 pm

Duty281 wrote:Journalists (and the BP defectors) have hopefully learnt now that the Brexit Party are taking chunks off the Labour vote in the north and that Farage was right to say that.

But he let them down. In fact, you could argue this weakens any influence over Brexit now and lets down Brexit Party voters and (prospective or otherwise) candidates who wanted a no-deal or hard Brexit.

by GSC Thu Dec 12, 2019 8:56 pm

JDizzle wrote:Corbyn’s gone. I think he was gone even if they won 260 odd seats again and it was a hung parliament.

It the Corbyn party now though. So will be interesting to see whether the membership show any introspection about what wrong when choosing the next leader.

it wont be interesting, they wont. This is already being pinned on brexit and the media

by Duty281 Thu Dec 12, 2019 8:58 pm

Would agree to an extent, but it’s not as though the Brexit Party had any realistic prospects in this election. The Brexit Party and Farage have done a good job in 2019, winning the European Elections and focusing Tory minds on Brexit, lessening the chance of a second referendum or outright revocation of article 50. That’s about the maximum influence they could exert. If the Brexit Party stood in all the seats in the GE what would have happened - more votes, but still no seats. No tangible difference.

The Tories have a majority now and they must get their deal through or Farage will return (again).

by Duty281 Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:02 pm

Tories take Leigh from Labour (that was 50-50 on the exit poll), which was Burnham’s old seat (remember him, he was the favourite in the 2015 Labour leadership election).

DUP lose North Down in an absolute shock.

by **Dolphin Ziggler** Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:11 pm

Can Corbyn now go down as the worst Labour leader? I think he holds a lot of responsibility for the Brexit vote too, they're getting hit hugely in Leave areas, more so (obviously) than Remain areas.

by **Dolphin Ziggler** Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:12 pm

Duty281 wrote:Would agree to an extent, but it’s not as though the Brexit Party had any realistic prospects in this election. The Brexit Party and Farage have done a good job in 2019, winning the European Elections and focusing Tory minds on Brexit, lessening the chance of a second referendum or outright revocation of article 50. That’s about the maximum influence they could exert. If the Brexit Party stood in all the seats in the GE what would have happened - more votes, but still no seats. No tangible difference.

The Tories have a majority now and they must get their deal through or Farage will return (again).

So, in this GE, did they achieve nothing? Leave voters went Tory, they won't influence Brexit policy or negotiations, they alienated supporters and could lose out on any chance of a No Deal

by Duty281 Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:17 pm

Dolphin Ziggler wrote:
Duty281 wrote:Would agree to an extent, but it’s not as though the Brexit Party had any realistic prospects in this election. The Brexit Party and Farage have done a good job in 2019, winning the European Elections and focusing Tory minds on Brexit, lessening the chance of a second referendum or outright revocation of article 50. That’s about the maximum influence they could exert. If the Brexit Party stood in all the seats in the GE what would have happened - more votes, but still no seats. No tangible difference.

The Tories have a majority now and they must get their deal through or Farage will return (again).

So, in this GE, did they achieve nothing? Leave voters went Tory, they won't influence Brexit policy or negotiations, they alienated supporters and could lose out on any chance of a No Deal

Achieved nothing substantial, other than nicking Labour votes and helping Tories in by the back door in some constituencies, but neither were they in a position to achieve anything of note in a FPTP election. Two second places in Barnsley likely to be the high point of their night.

The party could come back if the Tories mess up Brexit again, but I highly doubt it. Farage talks about electoral reform, but I don’t think he’s especially interested in that fight.

by Duty281 Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:19 pm

Dolphin Ziggler wrote:Can Corbyn now go down as the worst Labour leader? I think he holds a lot of responsibility for the Brexit vote too, they're getting hit hugely in Leave areas, more so (obviously) than Remain areas.

Probably. He’s lost to a dismal and disliked Tory Party by such a substantial margin that Labour are out of power for at least two more election cycles. Quite astonishing that Labour have only had three winning leaders since the war.

by **Pal Joey** Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:24 pm

Speak of the devil. Corbyn arriving in Islington trying to put on a brave face. He must feel shattered.

Duty281 wrote:Quite astonishing that Labour have only had three winning leaders since the war.

Exactly the same as here. Only Whitlam (1972), Hawke (1983) and Rudd (2007).

by JDizzle Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:30 pm

GSC wrote:
JDizzle wrote:Corbyn’s gone. I think he was gone even if they won 260 odd seats again and it was a hung parliament.

It the Corbyn party now though. So will be interesting to see whether the membership show any introspection about what wrong when choosing the next leader.
it wont be interesting, they wont. This is already being pinned on brexit and the media

Big difference between Pidcock or RLB and Rayner/Starmer though.

by Duty281 Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:33 pm

Tim Farron and Iain Duncan Smith both cling on to their seats.

Tories don’t take Canterbury from Labour, which is a big surprise.

by JDizzle Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:34 pm

Duty281 wrote:
Dolphin Ziggler wrote:Can Corbyn now go down as the worst Labour leader? I think he holds a lot of responsibility for the Brexit vote too, they're getting hit hugely in Leave areas, more so (obviously) than Remain areas.

Probably. He’s lost to a dismal and disliked Tory Party by such a substantial margin that Labour are out of power for at least two more election cycles. Quite astonishing that Labour have only had three winning leaders since the war.

Not sure about that. Tories went from sub 200 in 2005 to over 300 in 2010. Plus Johnson’s approval ratings are already dreadful - essentially he is just not Corbyn. No reason Labour can’t be the largest party in the next election if they go in the correct direction.

by McLaren Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:39 pm

Nearly cried listening to Jess Philips. Crying or Very sad

by **Dolphin Ziggler** Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:41 pm

DUP having a bad night, at least

by Duty281 Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:45 pm

DUP seem to be having a horrific night - Dodds has lost his seat, I think?

Tories take Redcar, that’s just silly. And they’ve taken Ynys Mon which the exit poll only gave them a 5% chance of doing.

by **Pr4wn** Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:55 pm

Game over for Labour, this will be an abject humiliation.

And absolutely none of it will be because of their position on Brexit, their policies or Corbyn.

by Duty281 Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:58 pm

Chuka Ummuna has been given the chuck. And Sir John Redwood has held off the Lib Dems.

by **Pr4wn** Thu Dec 12, 2019 10:01 pm

Silver lining in that Nigel Dodds has lost his seat. Good riddance.

Boris will retain his seat.

by **Pr4wn** Thu Dec 12, 2019 10:14 pm

The Conservative gains are highest in those constituencies with the lowest percentage of university graduates.

I, for one, am shocked.

by **Dolphin Ziggler** Thu Dec 12, 2019 10:14 pm

Zac Goldsmith loses his seat. Gotta laugh

by Duty281 Thu Dec 12, 2019 10:17 pm

Ed Miliband nearly loses his seat. Blimey that would have been a shock.

Surprised Goldsmith didn’t lose by more.

by **Pr4wn** Thu Dec 12, 2019 10:20 pm

Raab holds on by the skin of his teeth.

by **Dolphin Ziggler** Thu Dec 12, 2019 10:25 pm

Corbyn says he will not lead the party in any further GE campaigns (he's pretty old anyway) but will look to lead the party as they, well basically, assess what has happened and what to do next

by **Dolphin Ziggler** Thu Dec 12, 2019 10:28 pm

Dolphin Ziggler wrote:Corbyn says he will not lead the party in any further GE campaigns (he's pretty old anyway) but will look to lead the party as they, well basically, assess what has happened and what to do next

Not to mention that he might not get his chance to lead the party to recover in the initial period. Probably far out of his hands

by Duty281 Thu Dec 12, 2019 10:30 pm

Tories take Blair’s old manor as the BBC slightly downgrade their exit poll results.

Odd resignation from Corbyn by specifying the next ‘GE’ campaign which could be 4-5 years away. He needs to clear off as soon as possible for his party’s sake, and Labour need to install a new leader by the Spring Conference.

About halfway through and the Tories are around 9% ahead of Labour in the vote share stakes, indicating the polls were largely spot on, as they often are when there’s no major surges by any party.

by Duty281 Thu Dec 12, 2019 10:45 pm

Johnson increases his majority, so much for Labour being just 1% behind as they were claiming.

Swinson goes from PM in waiting to unemployed.

by **Dolphin Ziggler** Thu Dec 12, 2019 10:45 pm

Jo Swinson loses her seat by 149 votes

by **Dolphin Ziggler** Thu Dec 12, 2019 10:48 pm

This thread tomorrow is going to be mad. Between the death of Corbynism, Swinson falling, Tory huge majority and Craig waking up covered in tartan semen.

by **Pr4wn** Thu Dec 12, 2019 10:48 pm

Dolphin Ziggler wrote:Jo Swinson loses her seat by 149 votes

Turnout at over 80% in this seat. Wow.

by Duty281 Thu Dec 12, 2019 10:49 pm

Laura Pidcock gone too.

by Duty281 Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:10 pm

SNP performance very similar to 2015. Under 50% of the vote in Scotland, but over 90% of the Scottish seats, which is important to bear in mind when considering the chances of Scotland going independent from the U.K. in the near future.

Grieve defeated in Beaconsfield.

by **Pr4wn** Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:12 pm

Duty281 wrote:SNP performance very similar to 2015. Under 50% of the vote in Scotland, but over 90% of the Scottish seats, which is important to bear in mind when considering the chances of Scotland going independent from the U.K. in the near future.

Grieve defeated in Beaconsfield.

I mean, they're not going to get a referendum while Boris is PM and the Tories hold a majority. End of story.

by Duty281 Fri Dec 13, 2019 12:07 am

Tories win. And Dennis Skinner has lost his seat after all these decades.

by **Dolphin Ziggler** Fri Dec 13, 2019 12:13 am

Well done everyone in Kensington, by the way. Wow

by Duty281 Fri Dec 13, 2019 12:19 am

Gauke loses, joining Grieve from earlier. Couple of good and unexpected holds for Labour in Sheffield and Dagenham.

Can’t wait to tour the new Tory heartlands - Durham, Bolsover, Bishop Auckland, Sedgefield, Barrow and Stoke.

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