Mike Blair Talks Premiership vs Rabo

http://talksport.com/rugby-union/full-contact-sunday-april-20-14042188145

Mike Blair popped up on Brian Moore's show this weekend. He's on around the 24 minute mark and he mentions how different he found the premiership environment compared with the Rabo.

Specifically, he said you feel the pressure all the time. He acknowledged that Newcastle were always likely to be fighting a relegation battle but still was amazed at how tense their match was against Sale in only the second week. He couldn't imagine feeling that pressure in a Scottish side in the Rabo so early in the season.

Moore pressed him further, and he said that there's far more thought about areas like exit strategies (i.e. getting out of your own 22). In the Rabo, it would be "get it to the nine or ten", while Aviva teams had far more structures.

Tom Varndell agreed that every league game seems like its own cup final, with the counters set to zero as the final whistle blows.

Blair was of the opinion that the Aviva pressure must help England if their players are repeatedly exposed to such situations. He thought Scottish players could use a similar environment, pointing out that Edinburgh haven't had a crucial match for a while now.

(Then again, if that's always been true, then you might wonder why the experience wasn't always useful for England. )

Worth a quick listen if you have a few minutes.

Interesting debate - I'll need to have a listen later.

I suspect the Pro 12 will become a lot more competitive throughout the season due to the Euro cup qualifying criteria. There's a clear top 5 in the Rabbo (Leinster, Munster, Ulster, Glasgow, Ospreys) and pretty much everyone else in the league can lay a claim to the coveted 6th spot if they manage to put a decent season in. A top 6 finish is going to be harder than ever before from next season onwards.

I'm a big fan of Mike Blair's opinions - he's an excellent speaker and writer and I'm sure will be successful in this kind of career if he chooses to.

If Blair is so eloquent, can we parachute him in to replace Andy feckless Nicoll as the BBC's scottish pundit?

The Rabo certainly took a big step backwards this year but with the new wqualifucation rules and sky deal it should be very competitive next years.

Also most of the bottom sides have made good signings so they should be more competitive.

It hasnt been an easy season for him...playing for us. And by god we've been poor this season!

Maybe Blair has shown why Edinburgh are so poor consistently.

aren't they along time without back to back away wins in the Rabo.

Presure depends on your team and what you are fighting for but it can make you better or worse depending on the player.

it's the double whammy of pressure to make playoffs or qualify for europe, and pressure to avoid the relegation spots, which make the AP and top14 so much more competitive week in week out.

cant imagine any players want to be locked into contracts with teams that get relegated. that must be a powerful motivator. also the chance to show ones wares against the top european club sides must also be a powerful motivator. all season long for both.

qualification changes to the rabo will probably help in the medium term once everyone adapts.

quinsforever wrote:it's the double whammy of pressure to make playoffs or qualify for europe, and pressure to avoid the relegation spots, which make the AP and top14 so much more competitive week in week out.

cant imagine any players want to be locked into contracts with teams that get relegated. that must be a powerful motivator. also the chance to show ones wares against the top european club sides must also be a powerful motivator. all season long for both.

qualification changes to the rabo will probably help in the medium term once everyone adapts.

no as has been stated elsewhere there are 6 teams that are better than anyone else in the Rabo.

Stated on the internet does not equal fact.

Wonder what the rabo12 table will look like in 1,3,5 years with the new format for eurocup qualification. It's pretty much a racing certainty that the gap is going to narrow between the "stated" 6 and the rest.

Last two years has been munster, leinster, ulster, glasgow, ospreys, scarlets. Rest have been quite a bit behind in points and performance.

How much will it change? Still expect the euro performance to drop and not the league to improve, as per the T14 and Prem. Only teams that have moved up in the two leagues have had big investment. So on that basis an Italian team will improve but we knew that anyway.

No. I expect the intensity of rabo games to increase significantly if there is HC qualification on the line. If u can't see how that will make the rabo more competitive vs history then there is nothing further for me to add as your mind is closed on the issue.

Only thing I would prefer is to see relegation in the Rabo.

quinsforever wrote:No. I expect the intensity of rabo games to increase significantly if there is HC qualification on the line. If u can't see how that will make the rabo more competitive vs history then there is nothing further for me to add as your mind is closed on the issue.

Only thing I would prefer is to see relegation in the Rabo.

only teams to rise in the Prem and T14 have had cash injections to improve their squads and thus their results.

The Rabo is the same. The four Irish teams get the same funding from the central pot. Connacht raise the least money themselves by along shot hence their poorer squad. Where are they going to get the money to suddenly be able to go toe to toe with the other three.

Take any of the Rabo teams and they all face the same issues. The poorer teams are not going to get amasing players in the next two years that just show up from their youth teams. Italy are the only one producing better players each year hence why they will improve.

When you look at Bath and Sarries and Sale their squads have been overhauled by money to improve. Once improved it only takes a little to maintain it. It is no suprise that the teams in England and France that have the biggest income have been top teams for so long

My team are a clear exception. Delivering value for money result with a great academy system and a small number of adored foreign players (nick Evans monst of all)

What are u on about re Connacht? They get half the money from irfu that the other 3 provinces get. Nothing to do with gates. U have just revealed u don't understand how your own irfu-provincial funding is organised.

History of the Premiership...Lots of teams huffing and puffing and then Leicester win....

History of the rabo...does anyone actually even remember or care? I have never once heard a single Irish club fan mention rabo success. Ever. Not once.

So if the winners don't give a sh1t why should anyone else?

Well I know Munster have won it three times as have Leinster....while in the UK the premiership has been dominated by Leicester and Wasps recently with the odd interloper..

ME-109 wrote:Well I know Munster have won it three times as have Leinster....while in the UK the premiership has been dominated by Leicester and Wasps recently with the odd interloper..

Not quite. Leicester almost always make the final, but have only won it once in the last three years. Wasps haven't been a force since about 2007

I think you might need to have a look at the definition of recently ME-109. Wasps have only finished in the top half of the table once in the past 5 seasons, and even then only managed 5th so missed out on the play offs. They are currently 7th and will finish 7th or 8th this year. Hardly recent domination.

Likewise Brendan, Sale I don't believe have had massive financial input, and certainly not to the level of Sarries or Bath. They are a great example of how some shrewd signings and good coaching can take you from relegation candidates to top half of the table, and an outside shot at the play offs.

ME-109 wrote:Well I know Munster have won it three times as have Leinster....while in the UK the premiership has been dominated by Leicester and Wasps recently with the odd interloper..

A brilliant insight into the Aviva Premiership, why with knowledge like that, surely you've missed your vocation. Have you ever thought about sports journalism?

quinsforever wrote:History of the rabo...does anyone actually even remember or care? I have never once heard a single Irish club fan mention rabo success. Ever. Not once.

So if the winners don't give a sh1t why should anyone else?

Thats because you don't follow the Rabo - I assure you success in the rabo is important to the players and the fans

The relegation is the AP does have some good effects - but it also has some bad ones. The main downside being players get flogged too hard, at times and its harder for the international teams to get their players in the peak of condition, there is little opportunity to develop teams and players and it leads to safety first attritional rugby. Admitedly in the last couple of years there seems to be less of this but it can lead teams to play a very negative rugby.

No doubt the Rabo is more even with the top teams closer together, the bottom teams winning more and there being more bonus points scored. Rugby is an entertainment business and sometimes the AP games are really not that entertaining.

TJ, I think it's you are right that susccess in the Rabo is important to players and fans, but I think it's a relative thing.
 
What I mean is that for say Glasgow for example, it is of major importance.  They want to win it because it is their only chance of silverware (realistically).  For Leinster and Munster, I think they are happy if they win it, but it's not the be all and end all, as they have bigger fish to fry (Heino).
 
In the Premiership I think winning the league is still everyones number one goal.  A couple of teams, maybe Saracens and Tigers, might start out with designs on winning both, but European success is a bonus for most teams, whereas I think in the Rabo there are some teams where that's the other way round, and Europe is the goal and winning the Rabo a bonus.
 
I like the Rabo and follow it as there is some good entertaining rugby played.  What I do think though is that the powers that be need to make the competition a better product.  I think more of a fight to make the top half will assist with that.

Ozzy - we will see. I think it will damage it and also damage the international teams. Middle ranked teams will flog their players harder and it will increase club / country conflicts and make it harder to develop young players.

However professional rugby is a changing landscape so it is hard to predict.

Poorfour wrote:

ME-109 wrote:Well I know Munster have won it three times as have Leinster....while in the UK the premiership has been dominated by Leicester and Wasps recently with the odd interloper..

Not quite. Leicester almost always make the final, but have only won it once in the last three years. Wasps haven't been a force since about 2007

Aye, we make finals but winning the thing, well that is something else entirely.

2013 Leicester beat Northampton
2012 Harlequins beat Leicester
2011 Saracens beat Leicester
2010 Leicester beat Saracens
2009 Leicester beat London Irish
2008 Wasps beat Leicester
2007 Leicester beat Gloucester
2006 Sale beat Leicester
2005 Wasps beat Leicester
2004 Wasps beat Bath

So yes in the last 10 years there is a lot of Leicester (9 finals, 4 wins) & Wasps 3 wins, but in total 8 different teams have made the final and 5 have won the thing.

It's an interesting point TJ about club V country, especially in Scotland.

Typically Scottish players are rested pre and post International windows, and I wonder how much that will carry on with this new criteria. Glasgow are managing fine just now due to their quality squad, but Townsend and Solomons might not be so willing to rest players for some Rabbo games.

For what it's worth I can't see it doing anything other than improving the Rabbo. Scarlets, Edinburgh, Blues, Dragons and even Connacht have become fairly accustomed to top flight European rugby and are not effectively going to be fighting for that coveted 6th spot every season.

So not only will there be a top 4 scramble but a 6th place scramble too.

The only thing I can't see changing is the quality of the Italian teams. Treviso just need to come above Zebre, and I can't see Zebre being too concerned about not being in the top Euro comp.

I agree it is hard to predict, we will all just have to wait and see.
 
I just feel that if you look at the Rabo table, the top 6 are set, and I believe may be the same top 6 as last season.  Behind them is the group of 4, Blues, Edinburgh, Connacht and the Dragons.  They are not a million miles behind, but under previous Euro system the Blues and Edinburgh knew that they would still qualify for the top table, so where is the incentive to improve and challenge the top 6?  Of course the ability to be challenging for the title should be incentive enough, but now there is the added incentive of European qualificaiton.  Those teams points wise are not a million miles off, so small improvements should be enough to compete.
 
This could of course go either way.  Fear of not qualifying could set in and we see some negative rugby, but ultimately it has to be more competitive, which should help with players making the step up to International rugby.

in the rabo compared with the AP - ( when I did this analysis a few weeks back) the top teams had been beaten more, the bottom teams had won more and more bonus points had been scored. the Rabo is already a more even league that the AP

TJ, I'm not sure what the point is of that analysis. I think we all accept that in the AP this year, there have been 4 teams who have been very poor (Worcester, Falcons, Irish and Gloucester). Two of those will definitely be better next season due to recruitment, and will potentially be challenging for 5th to 7th place and top tier European qualification. Sale are the example of this from last year to this. They had to improve if they wanted to dine at the top European table, and they have.

This is what I would like to see from the likes of the Blues, Conancht, Dragons and in particular Edinburgh next season.

The point is its a clue to the differing nature of the leagues. The Rabo is more competitive taken as a whole.

TJ wrote:The point is its a clue to the differing nature of the leagues.  The Rabo is more competitive taken as a whole.

Or, being devil's advocate, it shows that Top Teams in the Rabo lose when they choose to rest their best players, proving they care more for progress in Euro competition, knowing they will make the play-offs anyway?

London tiger - not at all - it shows just how competitive and difficult it is to get into the playoffs. The fight for playoff places is going right to the wire with only Leinster safe. Glasgow could miss out due to their lack of try bonus points.

Yes the teams care more for the HC - as is right. Its the pinnacle of club rugby and they don't send weakened teams into the HC unlike some AP teams

Its just a piece of analysis showing a difference. It proves nothing bar showing the Rabo is a more even league

Different sport but as Shankly said the league is your bread and butter.

Indeed 7 1/2 - but the european cup is the jam on top

That's what comes as a result of no relegation. League gets taken for granted. And teams/unions get to focus on the showcase event with no downside to their league situation.

Exactly TJ. Make sure you get the bread first or you're just the sticky kid in the corner with diabetes.

I guess it depends on what you mean by competitive TJ. It certainly shows that wins are shared around and potentially any team can beat any other team and on that basis as a stand alone season analysis the league is competitive.

However, if you look across this season and the previous 2, the teams finishing in the top 6 in the Rabo each season have been the same, just in a different order, with the Blues just back in 7th I believe. What does this say about the competitiveness? It says to me that although on any given day the lower teams can get a win, none are actually challenging what has become an elite top 6.

As a comaprison, in England, Sarries, Tigers and Saints have been in the top 4 the same period, with prbably Bath this year and Quins the previous two years. In 5th and 6th this year will be Quins and Sale, last year was Gloucester and the Chiefs, and the season before the Chiefs and Sale. 7th this year are Wasps, and two years ago Irish finshed 7th, within 1 win of 6th, with Bath and Gloucester both also within 1 win of 6th place.

If you are looking at qualifying for Europe by league position, the same teams would have qualified in each of the past 3 years from the Rabo. From the AP, 9 different teams have qualified in the same period, with the potential for Wasps to make that 10 by finsihing 7th and winning the play off this year.

I gues by competitiveness, what I mean is that I want to see the likes of Edinburgh putting in a consistent challenge to finish top 6, not winning the odd one here and there agisnt the big teams but not really worrying too much as they know they are dining at the top Euro table next year anyway. Now they will have to fight and improve, I can only see this being beneficial.

I'm getting confused again now. I thought that the Premiership rested players just as much as the Pro12 teams. And the Pro12 teams put their best team out when they can but are constrained by union limits?

So either the Pro12 teams rest their (non-international) players more or the Premiership flog their players...it can't be both.

As for the spread of points, I think it'w very clear the top and bottom teams in the Pro12 (as they play in the Pro12) are closer. 49 points between 1st and 12th so far.

Of course it's a one off so far.

2014 - Pro12 49 points : AP 68 points
2013 - Pro12 71 points : AP 54 points
2012 - Pro12 59 points : AP 43 points
2011 - Pro12 71 points : AP 55 points

Another interesting stat is that in the AP this season so far there were 2 draws and 58 LBP. So that is 50% of games being won by 7 or less. In the Pro12 there were 4 draws and 57 LBP. So that is 51.7% of games won by 7 or less.

Most of this stuff, if you look at it properly, show there isn't a lot of difference between the two leagues. AP is generally a bit more consistent (in terms of tries scored, LBP, etc) where as the Pro12 fluctuates more (possibly because the various recent changes, mostly in the Italian teams). What a cussing surprise.

No 7&1/2 wrote:Exactly TJ. Make sure you get the bread first or you're just the sticky kid in the corner with diabetes.

:-)

HammerofThunor wrote:I'm getting confused again now. I thought that the Premiership rested players just as much as the Pro12 teams. And the Pro12 teams put their best team out when they can but are constrained by union limits?

Both leagues rotate squads a similar amount. However they do it differently according to different criteria. All rabo teams play less games than AP ones. International windows have more effect on (some) Rabo teams. Hence you can have similar amounts of rotation but players still getting flogged more as there are more games.

Its all opinion tho and there is no right way - just different ways

TJ wrote:

HammerofThunor wrote:I'm getting confused again now. I thought that the Premiership rested players just as much as the Pro12 teams. And the Pro12 teams put their best team out when they can but are constrained by union limits?

Both leagues rotate squads a similar amount.  However they do it differently according to different criteria.  All rabo teams play less games than AP ones.  International windows have more effect on (some) Rabo teams.  Hence you can have similar amounts of rotation but players still getting flogged more as there are more games.

Its all opinion tho and there is no right way - just different ways

All the rabo teams play less games than the Pro12? The welsh play the same number if you including the LV. The LV games are generally filled out by academy and fringe players who aren't playing in the league. Not sure if any of the general Irish provincial squad guys play in the B&I Cup but wouldn't be surprised if a few academy guys got in their (similar to LV).

How many games do individual players get? Are the actual players played more? How much counts as 'flogged'? There was a thing on here that Nacewa hadn't missed a Leinster game in X years or something like that. Have you actually looked at this or are the parrotting the same old lines? You'll be saying the premiership doesn't give the academy players a chance next.

sorry - I forgot the welsh also play in the LV cup Doh!

Quite sad how much it stands out when you get someone like Blair quietly, honestly and eloquently talking sense. I would be pleased to get him into the commentary box instead of Andy Nichol, who constantly looks like he's about to hit someone. If that line in his forehead gets any deeper, we'd have to periodically check to make sure Al Qaeda aren't hiding in there.

Edinburgh have certainly flogged some players this year! I was just disappointed to see some AP teams put out weakened teams in the HC as seemed to happen. I guess again its about priorities.

I agree about Blair - he is a bright chap and knows his rugby and can speak well. What he says is well worth listening to

quinsforever wrote:What are u on about re Connacht? They get half the money from irfu that the other 3 provinces get. Nothing to do with gates. U have just revealed u don't understand how your own irfu-provincial funding is organised.

They are now get the same funding but when you get 5k every second week compared to 11-18k a week. That is alot of money. Add on all the sponserships and you see why they have such a poor squad. The reason they can sign players like Clark etc is all their new funding.

George Carlin wrote:Quite sad how much it stands out when you get someone like Blair quietly, honestly and eloquently talking sense. I would be pleased to get him into the commentary box instead of Andy Nichol, who constantly looks like he's about to hit someone. If that line in his forehead gets any deeper, we'd have to periodically check to make sure Al Qaeda aren't hiding in there.

To be fair to Nicol, no wonder he's as dour as they come. Imagine years of watching Scotland getting shafted with the likes of 'Jiffy', Inverdale, Guscott, Healy, Woodward etc for company. That'd be enough to wipe the smile off Mr Happy's face...

TJ wrote:Yes the teams care more for the HC - as is right.  Its the pinnacle of club rugby and they don't send weakened teams into the HC unlike some AP teams

What are your examples of this?  Towards the end of the pool stages all three leagues had sides who knew they were out and weren't putting forward all their best.

Having just taken a look at some of the line-ups for those final rounds, I wager for every AP side that you claim wasn't at full strength (not due to injury) I can similarly point out a Pro12 side.

I think that the European competition qualification will make things more interesting we will have to see what effect it has on quality of rugby.
I think Rabo fans do want to win the league, I mean I am an Ulster fan and at the start of the season we arguably wanted to do well in both maybe even win the Heino too but I always wanted to win the league (which is going to be difficult if we lose any more props soon I'll be propping for us at this rate)
As for relegation that is a complete non starter there is nowhere for the teams who get relegated to go or any teams to come up there is no 2nd division and the next teams in each country are pretty much all amateurs so you cant call them up nor are there the resources to make more teams to have a 2nd division.

I would like to see a second division rabo - then the welsh could go to eith clubs, the scots could feild two more teams and the italians more. Dunno if the irish could find room in their setup tho. However its a way off yet.