AP Round 21 - Preview

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Table

	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	For	Against	Bonus Pts	Points
1	Saracens	20	16	1	3	487	297	6	72
2	Leicester	20	14	1	5	480	298	10	68
3	Harlequins	20	13	0	7	496	408	8	60
4	Northampton	20	13	0	7	435	404	7	59
5	Gloucester	20	11	1	8	448	418	8	54
6	Exeter	20	10	1	9	465	383	8	50
7	Bath	20	9	1	10	411	385	10	48
8	London Wasps	20	9	0	11	467	470	11	47
9	Worcester	20	5	1	14	374	472	11	33
10	Sale	20	6	1	13	349	529	5	31
11	London Irish	20	6	1	13	392	541	4	30
12	London Welsh	20	4	0	16	351	550	7	18

Fixtures

Sat 20th Apr 13
14:15 Bath Rugby v Leicester Tigers ESPN
15:00 Gloucester Rugby v Saracens
15:00 London Irish v London Welsh
15:00 Worcester Warriors v Harlequins
17:45 Northampton Saints v Sale Sharks Sky


Sun 21st Apr 13
14:00 PR London Wasps v Exeter Chiefs ESPN



Preview
Well, with two rounds to go, London Welsh are relegated while Saracens have a guaranteed home play-off semi and Tigers have a guaranteed semi and are one win away from guaranteeing a home fixture. Gloucester, with tricky fixtures to come look unlikely to challenge for Top 4 but should hang on to Top 6. Quins and Saints are probably fighting for 3rd and 4th spot. Exeter and Wasps appear to be duking it out for the final HEC spot, with Bath having to face Saracens and Tigers.

The weekend starts at the Rec where Bath host a Leicester team desperate to secure that home semi-final and put some pressure on Sarries for the top spot. When they are good, Bath can be very good - more often than not though they have seemed lacklustre. Right now they seem to be a team that is less than the sum of the parts. Defeat will consign them to the amlin for another year, even if they win they will probably still need to win in Round 22 - away to Sarries! With a week off next week when the European semi finals are to be played, we can expect Tigers to be at full strength. They should be too good for their former silverware rivals.

Gloucester-Sarries is perhaps the pick of the 3pm fixtures. Can an out of form get their campaign back on track and keep Top 4 hopes alive? It will need an injury/suspension hit front row to really come out firing and Freddie Burns to rediscover his pre-christmas form. Even then you feel that Sarries - even if they have one eye on Toulon the following week - will be too physical in defence, causing the turnovers that their counter-attacking style can thrive on. If we continue to see loopy passing from Glaws scrum-halves and Burns jogging towards his intended pass receiver, all time and space for the Glaws centres will be removed. In those situations Sarries thrive and could well cause the Shed to leave early.

With Dean Ryan's appointment to the Worcester hot seat adding some additional interest we could see a tight game at Sixways. Worcester have little to play for, half the team is leaving, but the half that are staying will be keen to impress against a misfiring Quins team. Quins problems start up front - Johnstone looks completely out of sorts and is shipping penalties by the handfull. Robshaw looks knackered and with Fa'asavalu of form there has been a real lack of grunt in the Quins pack. Slow ball has then been hampering Quins attack, further damaged by ball carriers not having support as close or in the numbers we have come to expect. Worcester are a much stronger team at home, Quins will be thinking about the last round where they face Saints. So of course my gut is telling me we will see a real stellar performance form the reigning champions.

London Irish, another side that appear to be losing half a team, host relegated London Welsh. With nothing to play for we could see a really open match. Whilstthese sides have scored the least tries in the AP, their defences have shipped the most, over 100 between them. London Irish have a lot more class and I would expect them to win an entertaining encounter.

Saints host a resurgent Sale sharks in the last match of the day. Sale looked good against Gloucester last week, but you have to wonder if Northampton have too much power up front. Northampton need the win more and should win with some comfort to set up a cracking final round matchup with Quins.

Sunday sees Wasps host Exeter in a match both sides will be desperate to win. Wasps results have been poor for the last month. Still capable of scoring tries at almost any time, there is a real quality about a lot of their play. Good in the lineout and with a rampaging backrow they are really let down by a lack of grunt in the tight - scrums and mauls being an area they have struggled in. Exeter will look to bash them up front and then move quick ball to try and capitalise on any defensive frailties on the Wasps flanks. Should be a cracking match.

Yeh, I am sure this will be one of those agree to disagree issues but there is no way I take Louw over Croft or Salvi

beshocked wrote:Louw is not a shoe in for any side in the Premiership. Louw would not get in the backrow of Leicester,Sarries or Quins in my opinion.

Warming the bench perhaps but then these sides have good backrow depth too.


Peter Stringer would definitely be ahead of Harrison. Heathcote above Bowden too.

You're welcome to your opinion, but Louw is a world class 7 starting and established international, which puts him streets ahead of Salvi (great player, I rate him highly, but he didn't make it at Super Rugby) and Fraser (Great promise, but based on 1 season, no where near international yet) and Robshaw, wouldn't be a straight swap, he'd slot in alongside him nicely at 6 or 7, much better than Mo, who's been average this year.

Bathite if Louw is as good as you seem to think then why don't we see more of him internationally or at club level?

If I was choosing best backrow in the AP Louw wouldn't get a look in.

I watched the Bath game vs Quins. I can't say that Louw stood out of the crowd.

On form Louw wouldn't get into these backrows.

Salvi,Fraser etc might not be well known names but they have been two of the best 7s in the AP this season as well as Ksevic.

If players are in poor form they won't get in the side.

Peter Stringer would definitely be ahead of Harrison. Heathcote above Bowden too.

For bench warmers

Peter Stringer (aged 35 and Irish to boot) Sam Harrison (23)
Tom Heathcote (aged 21 but Scottish) Dan Bowden (aged 27 but NZQ)

I don't know about anyone else I'd have Harrison as he's young and English for investment and patriotic reasons.

However if you pick foreign players, best not pick one that can be taken off you in IWs. So Bowden.

beshocked wrote:Bathite if Louw is as good as you seem to think then why don't we see more of him internationally or at club level?


If I was choosing best backrow in the AP Louw wouldn't get a look in.

I watched the Bath game vs Quins. I can't say that Louw stood out of the crowd.

On form Louw wouldn't get into these backrows.

Salvi,Fraser etc might not be well known names but they have been two of the best 7s in the AP this season as well as Ksevic.

If players are in poor form they won't get in the side.

You have a short memory! He started almost every Autumn international and was brilliant for the Boks. I'm pretty sure that this was the last time the Boks played? He can't play for them if they don't have any games!

He's been brilliant all season, you often see people saying how screwed we'd be without him, that we are a one man team. I'm completely bewildered that you can't see that? In fact he's been so great, that Toulon and Racing have been trying to buy him out of his contract all season.

Yes on form Fraser is brilliant, as our Salvi and Fraser and of course they get the most press because their teams are in great form and smashing everyone.

:doh:

Also, Salvi and Fraser not well known names? You do say some weird things

Louw has to do almost everything for Bath - and before he was sent off really struggled to manage that against us earlier in the season.

He is a fantastic player, but I feel that having him in our team whether at 6,7 or 8 would unbalance the back row.

LondonTiger wrote:Louw has to do almost everything for Bath - and before he was sent off really struggled to manage that against us earlier in the season.

He is a fantastic player, but I feel that having him in our team whether at 6,7 or 8 would unbalance the back row.

Finally some sense! Totally agree, you do have good balance in Croft / Salvi / Waldrom, its sum is greater than it's parts. Louw might not add to that combo, but he's certainly individually a better player in my opinion than Croft or Salvi. His slight problem is that he's a proper jack of all trades, stuck between 6 and 7

Bathite wrote:

beshocked wrote:Louw is not a shoe in for any side in the Premiership. Louw would not get in the backrow of Leicester,Sarries or Quins in my opinion.

Warming the bench perhaps but then these sides have good backrow depth too.


Peter Stringer would definitely be ahead of Harrison. Heathcote above Bowden too.

You're welcome to your opinion, but Louw is a world class 7 starting and established international, which puts him streets ahead of Salvi (great player, I rate him highly, but he didn't make it at Super Rugby) and Fraser (Great promise, but based on 1 season, no where near international yet) and Robshaw, wouldn't be a straight swap, he'd slot in alongside him nicely at 6 or 7, much better than Mo, who's been average this year.

I have to agree. Louw is an outstanding player and I'd have him in every Jeff starting XV. I'd have him ahead of Salvi and Fraser, which considering how good both have been this year is an indication of how good Louw is.

However, he will never be a world class player whilst he is at Bath!

If Louw was world class he wouldn't be in England.

greytiger wrote:

Peter Stringer would definitely be ahead of Harrison. Heathcote above Bowden too.

For bench warmers

Peter Stringer (aged 35 and Irish to boot) Sam Harrison (23)
Tom Heathcote (aged 21 but Scottish) Dan Bowden (aged 27 but NZQ)

I don't know about anyone else I'd have Harrison as he's young and English for investment and patriotic reasons.

However if you pick foreign players, best not pick one that can be taken off you in AIWs. So Bowden.

I am talking about best side outside IWs in terms of ability. Not potential.

If we are talking about most valuable players in terms of not getting called up etc then it's another matter.

Most valuable XV IMO this season in the AP. It doesn't include internationals.

15.Wyles
14.Wade
13.Daly
12.Allen
11.Varndell
10.Hodgson
9.Wigglesworth
8.Easter
7.Salvi
6.
5.Borthwick
4.Wentzel
3.Stevens
2.
1.Mulipola

Struggling at 6. Any ideas?

greytiger wrote:If Louw was world class he wouldn't be in England.

To be honest if he had been a regular in the Boks before I don't think he would have come.

greytiger wrote:If Louw was world class he wouldn't be in England.

Well the French clubs have been trying all season!

When he left he wasn't a regular Bok, it's even more impressive that it's since he joined us and played in such a poor side that he's become that. Just think of all the players that could be picked ahead of him for that Springbok shirt. Testament to him moreso I feel.

HKC - completely agree!

greytiger wrote:If Louw was world class he wouldn't be in England.

A bit like saying if Salvi was any good, he would have made it into a Super rugby squad in either of the 2 attempts? Floored logic

beshocked wrote:

greytiger wrote:

Peter Stringer would definitely be ahead of Harrison. Heathcote above Bowden too.

For bench warmers

Peter Stringer (aged 35 and Irish to boot) Sam Harrison (23)
Tom Heathcote (aged 21 but Scottish) Dan Bowden (aged 27 but NZQ)

I don't know about anyone else I'd have Harrison as he's young and English for investment and patriotic reasons.

However if you pick foreign players, best not pick one that can be taken off you in AIWs. So Bowden.

I am talking about best side outside IWs in terms of ability. Not potential.

If we are talking about most valuable players in terms of not getting called up etc then it's another matter.

Most valuable XV IMO this season in the AP. It doesn't include internationals.

15.Wyles
14.Wade
13.Daly
12.Allen
11.Varndell
10.Hodgson
9.Wigglesworth
8.Joubert
7.Salvi
6.
5.Borthwick
4.Wentzel
3.Stevens
2.Brits
1.Mulipola

Struggling at 6. Any ideas? :whistle:

Only 6 Saffies, I'm impressed, that must have been tricky.

Slater is a certain at lock ahead of Borthwick, but you could play him at 6. I'd also want Easter at 8; it's easy to forget Quins early form, they've only tailed off recently. Aulika at Irish has been pretty crucial to them, as has Taolufa at Wasps.

Wasps most valuable player this season remains Sam Vesty though!

Only 7 actually...

4 Wasps,3 Tigers, 7 Sarries.

Would have picked less but I was thinking that the top side currently in the AP needed pretty good representation.


Slater certain above Borthwick? Not a chance. I know Slater has been good for Leicester but Borthwick is one of the most important players for Saracens.

Wentzel would have to make way for Slater possibly.

Bathite wrote:

greytiger wrote:If Louw was world class he wouldn't be in England.

A bit like saying if Salvi was any good, he would have made it into a Super rugby squad in either of the 2 attempts? Floored logic

That is fair enough, though no-one said Salvi is world class.

Maybe I should have been clearer with my statement, I wouldn't take Louw over Salvi on this season's performances. I may be biased but I believe he has been the stand-out 7 in the premiership this season. I know stats don't tell you everything but before the Wasps game he had 25 turnover on his own, 10 more than any other player in the league. That is some going, even if he does play for one of the top teams in the league.

Amazed there's noQuins in the mvp 15. We arev3rd, you know, and already have the most silverware of any AP Club this season at the moment, which will remain the case unless Sarries do the double. Care has won matches on his lonesome this season and Easter has been the best 8 throughout it

Salvi was class for us as well mate, so it's not a reflection of being at a top side!

ChequeredJersey wrote:Amazed there's noQuins in the mvp 15. We arev3rd, you know, and already have the most silverware of any AP Club this season at the moment, which will remain the case unless Sarries do the double. Care has won matches on his lonesome this season and Easter has been the best 8 throughout it

I totally agree, it's weird criteria for that XV, no internationals. But once again it's a case of recent memory taking over. I'd have Brown, Lowe, Smith, Evans, Care, Easter, Wallace, Matthews, Marler and JJ all in the mix personally

killer938 wrote:

Bathite wrote:

greytiger wrote:If Louw was world class he wouldn't be in England.

A bit like saying if Salvi was any good, he would have made it into a Super rugby squad in either of the 2 attempts? Floored logic

That is fair enough, though no-one said Salvi is world class.

Maybe I should have been clearer with my statement, I wouldn't take Louw over Salvi on this season's performances. I may be biased but I believe he has been the stand-out 7 in the premiership this season. I know stats don't tell you everything but before the Wasps game he had 25 turnover on his own, 10 more than any other player in the league. That is some going, even if he does play for one of the top teams in the league.

Equally I wouldn't take Louw at 7 over Fraser based on this season either.

I apologise Bathite. Perhaps I underrate Louw but I don't think he has the ability to walk into any sides XV in the AP.

Equally I wouldn't say any Sarries player would walk into any other AP side either.

I don't think Louw is the best 6 or 7 in the AP personally but we can agree to disagree.

Bathite wrote:

ChequeredJersey wrote:Amazed there's noQuins in the mvp 15. We arev3rd, you know, and already have the most silverware of any AP Club this season at the moment, which will remain the case unless Sarries do the double. Care has won matches on his lonesome this season and Easter has been the best 8 throughout it

I totally agree, it's weird criteria for that XV, no internationals. But once again it's a case of recent memory taking over. I'd have Brown, Lowe, Smith, Evans, Care, Easter, Wallace, Matthews, Marler and JJ all in the mix personally

It's no internationals because internationals miss matches throughout the season. The criteria is players who could potentially play every game.

That rules out the likes of Brown,Care and Marler.

Value is less if they are missing matches.

I'll rate Fraser at Louw's level when he's a regular international, that's the only fair way to do it, side by side. It's probably as difficult for Fraser to get the England 7 shirt than it is for Louw to keep it ahead of the ridicolous strength in the back row the Boks have.

Brits has played for SA this season beshocked

I was actually tempted by Johnston but he has been lethargic in the last few games.

Good shout about Easter. I'll swap him instead of Joubert.

Evans has been poor recently. Not been as good as Hodgson.

Lowe has been injured hasn't he? Daly has been far more effective.

Don't have a clue about 2 then. Possibly Gray?

Harlequins have announced the team that will play Worcester Warriors tomorrow at Sixways Stadium in round 21 of the Aviva Premiership (kick-off 3pm).For the first time this season, Harlequins have named the starting 15 that won the Aviva Premiership Final in May 2012.

In the forwards, James Johnston will make his 100th appearance for the club and is named in the front row with Joe Gray and Joe Marler.

George Robson has recovered from a knock he picked up last week and starts in the second row, while Nick Easter, who starts at number 8, will make his 200th appearance for the club.

There are two changes in the back line from the side that defeated Bath last weekend as Jordan Turner-Hall is named at inside centre, while Ugo Monye starts on the left wing.

Nick Evans continues at fly-half with Danny Care making his 100th Premiership appearance.

Matt Hopper had surgery on a finger injury on Monday and will be out for 14 weeks, while Tom Casson is still struggling with a knee injury sustained against Munster.

Harlequins team

15. Mike Brown
14. Tom Williams
13. George Lowe
12. Jordan Turner-Hall
11. Ugo Monye
10. Nick Evans
9. Danny Care

1. Joe Marler
2. Joe Gray
3. James Johnston
4. Olly Kohn
5. George Robson
6. Maurie Fa'asavalu
7. Chris Robshaw
8. Nick Easter

16. Rob Buchanan
17. Mark Lambert
18. Will Collier
19. Charlie Matthews
20. Tom Guest
21. Karl Dickson
22. Ben Botica
23. Ross Chisholm

No Wallace and yes Mo = disappointed CJ

Not Gray at 2, Buchanan has beenbetter for us all season!

Bathite wrote:I'll rate Fraser at Louw's level when he's a regular international, that's the only fair way to do it, side by side. It's probably as difficult for Fraser to get the England 7 shirt than it is for Louw to keep it ahead of the ridicolous strength in the back row the Boks have.

Side by side?

Is Louw a regular international? When did he play his last international match?

He is currently not playing international rugby. Both him and Fraser are playing in the AP.

I expect Fraser to have the 7 shirt in the England tour to Argentina unless he gets injured.

I could say Ashton is a better player than Wade because he has a lot more caps, more tries etc. It's the same sort of thing. A lot of people disagree with that statement and want to see Wade starting for England because Wade is in good form. I can understand that.

My personal MVP team excluding any player who has missed matches due to international duty. At least 1 player from every club


Luke Arscott
Tom Biggs
Joel Tomkins
Sam Tuitupo
David Lemi
Nick Evans
Joe Simpson
Jonathan Mills
Julian Salvi
Tom Savage
Steve Borthwick
Samu Manoa
James Johnstone
Schalk Brits
Max Lahiff

Chequeredjersey who do you think has been the most valuable 2 in the AP this season? Other than of course the players who played internationals?

Really unsure about 6. Do you others think Louw has been the most valuable 6 in the AP other than the internationals?

You need to jog your memory son

South Africa's last game was 24th November, in which a certain Frans Louw was playing 6.

To be fair to Frans, you're right, he hasn't played for the Boks since....Oh wait, that's because they haven't had a game. Dufus.

Yep, Fraser will tour with England, because we'll be likely missing a few of our first choice back row, so that doesn't prove anything.

Brits played against boh England and Scotland in the Autumn LT

LondonTiger wrote:My personal MVP team excluding any player who has missed matches due to international duty. At least 1 player from every club


Luke Arscott
Tom Biggs
Joel Tomkins
Sam Tuitupo
David Lemi
Nick Evans
Joe Simpson
Jonathan Mills
Julian Salvi
Tom Savage
Steve Borthwick
Samu Manoa
James Johnstone
Schalk Brits
Max Lahiff

Good side.

beshocked wrote:
Is Louw a regular international? When did he play his last international match?

Most recent international 24/11/2012 - last game SA played. http://www.espnscrum.com/statsguru/rugby/match/153976.html

17 caps in two years (12 starts) and started SAs last 6 internationals.

ChequeredJersey wrote:Brits played against boh England and Scotland in the Autumn LT

bugger. Had hooker and Stand off vacant - Joe Gray has played the most AP matches at hooker, but wanted to include Evans.

I would have Savage at 6, and maybe Lindsay at 2?

LondonTiger wrote:

beshocked wrote:
Is Louw a regular international? When did he play his last international match?

Most recent international 24/11/2012 - last game SA played. http://www.espnscrum.com/statsguru/rugby/match/153976.html

17 caps in two years (12 starts) and started SAs last 6 internationals.

Puts that one to bed, cheers

ChequeredJersey wrote:I would have Savage at 6, and maybe Lindsay at 2?

I did have Savage at 6, and Lindsay has only started 7 matches from 20, so hard to call him a Wasps MVP

Bathite wrote:You need to jog your memory son

South Africa's last game was 24th November, in which a certain Frans Louw was playing 6.

To be fair to Frans, you're right, he hasn't played for the Boks since....Oh wait, that's because they haven't had a game. Dufus.

Yep, Fraser will tour with England, because we'll be likely missing a few of our first choice back row, so that doesn't prove anything.

Ok I concede. Louw would walk into any side because he is THAT good.

Fraser is not fit to lace this rugby legend's boots. I hope one day Fraser will become as good as this rugby deity because he is the benchmark.

Fraser should not be looking up to his mentor (aka "the silent assassin"), he should be looking up to this giant of the modern game - Francois Louw.

Hooker is hard to fill. Probs why it's been a weakness for England in recent years.

beshocked wrote:

greytiger wrote:

Peter Stringer would definitely be ahead of Harrison. Heathcote above Bowden too.

For bench warmers

Peter Stringer (aged 35 and Irish to boot) Sam Harrison (23)
Tom Heathcote (aged 21 but Scottish) Dan Bowden (aged 27 but NZQ)

I don't know about anyone else I'd have Harrison as he's young and English for investment and patriotic reasons.

However if you pick foreign players, best not pick one that can be taken off you in AIWs. So Bowden.

I am talking about best side outside IWs in terms of ability. Not potential.

If we are talking about most valuable players in terms of not getting called up etc then it's another matter.

Most valuable XV IMO this season in the AP. It doesn't include internationals.

15.Wyles
14.Wade
13.Daly
12.Allen
11.Varndell
10.Hodgson
9.Wigglesworth
8.Easter
7.Salvi
6.
5.Borthwick
4.Wentzel
3.Stevens
2.
1.Mulipola

Struggling at 6. Any ideas?

Just got back
Is that Internationals or current internationals? Seei as Wiggles and Varndell are there, I could quickly propose Crane at 6.

LondonTiger wrote:Wasps unleashing everything they have, Asbo

So it would seem, LT - bruising ball-carrying back 5 in the pack, but I think there's always a risk in changing so many players around from one week to the next - will the Exe collective spirit prevail?

LondonTiger wrote:My personal MVP team excluding any player who has missed matches due to international duty. At least 1 player from every club


Luke Arscott
Tom Biggs
Joel Tomkins
Sam Tuitupo
David Lemi
Nick Evans
Joe Simpson
Jonathan Mills
Julian Salvi
Tom Savage
Steve Borthwick
Samu Manoa
James Johnstone
Schalk Brits
Max Lahiff

That is a rather good side and would certainly give a lot teams some trouble. As much as I rate Savage, I'd probably have Kalamafoni ahead of him, as he's not played in an international this year.

HongKongCherry wrote:

LondonTiger wrote:My personal MVP team excluding any player who has missed matches due to international duty. At least 1 player from every club


Luke Arscott
Tom Biggs
Joel Tomkins
Sam Tuitupo
David Lemi
Nick Evans
Joe Simpson
Jonathan Mills
Julian Salvi
Tom Savage
Steve Borthwick
Samu Manoa
James Johnstone
Schalk Brits
Max Lahiff

That is a rather good side and would certainly give a lot teams some trouble. As much as I rate Savage, I'd probably have Kalamafoni ahead of him, as he's not played in an international this year.

Nice team. I dont think Ashely Johnson would be out of place in there in terms of a valuable player for Wasps either.

Tyson Keats as Sale's MVP?!

Come on you Sheddites!

This is a perfect opportunity to get the train back on the tracks.

The Sarries are fighting on two fronts and will inevitably have their eyes on next week's game.

Hit hard. Hit often and hit early!
Don't let the reinforcements get at you before it's too late to regather.

I'd take Louw at 6 over big Mo every day of the year. Louw is class.


My team:

PDJ
Buchanan
Mulipola
Borthwick
Manoa
Louw
Quera
Kalamafoni
K Dickson
Evans
Varndell
Mafi
Tomkins
Wade
May

Some nice rugby (and poor kicking from Nev) in the Wuss-Quins match, 3 tries to one for Quins and the sun is showing in both teams playing attacking rugby

Nice unbiased commentating too,

Worcester 16 - Quins 20 at HT