AP Round 20 Preview

The table as it stands after round 19:

Harlequins 20 16 1 3 71
Leicester Tigers 20 13 1 6 65
Saracens 20 14 1 5 64
Exeter Chiefs 20 12 0 8 58
Northampton Saints 20 12 0 8 56
Sale Sharks 20 9 0 11 45
Gloucester Rugby 20 8 1 11 43
Bath Rugby 20 8 0 12 40
London Irish 20 6 1 13 37
Worcester Warriors 20 7 1 12 36
London Wasps 20 6 0 14 31
Newcastle Falcons 20 5 2 13 27

Friday 20th April

Newcastle Falcons v Saracens, Kingston Park, Newcastle
Newcastle upset all the odds last week getting a win away at the Shed. But this weeks challenge will be a lot tougher, Saracens come to Kingston Park in some very mixed form. They're getting the wins, but it is nothing like as controling as the Saracens of last season, injuries to key players and the simple game plan have hit them hard. Saying that I still expect them to have too much experience and class for the Falcons and now at the close of the season they'll be out for a win at any cost, with the golden boots of Farrell out there it probably wont be pretty. Saracens by 3.

Saturday 21st April

Bath Rugby v London Wasps, Recreation Ground, Bath
Bath have had one of their worst seasons of the pro era and look at the moment like they will not even make it in to the HC next season. If they are to do their chances of stealing the 6th spot any favours then a bonus point win is a must at home to Wasps. The Londoners showed a lot of spirit last week to Quins but still conceded four tries and never looked like they would win it. A trip to the Rec will not be fun for Wasps and even Bath’s slap dash pack should be able to get control of Wasp’s injury addled forwards, once they do that then perhaps Bath will be able to play the champagne stuff that they love. Of course, lots of open rugby will also suit Wasps and this could be another high scoring game, but ultimately they just do not have the game awareness to play well for 80 minutes and that will do for them. Bath by 10 with the bp.

Gloucester Rugby v Sale Sharks, Kingsholm, Gloucester
A chance for redemption for the Cherry and Whites after last week’s home display. It's been a turbulent week for Glos with news of Redpath leaving but they will need to put that behind them and focus on the game or else a loss now could see them out of the HC next season, while a win should put them straight in to the sixth spot. Gloucester for me cannot be as bad as they were last week two weeks running; we all know the potential of their players and now is the chance for them to show it. Gloucester by 15 with a bp.

Worcester Warriors v London Irish, Sixways, Worcester
Worcester will be pleased that they are now completely save from the drop zone. While LI will be shocked by how a season with such potential has crashed and burned. Going in to this game Wuss have to be favourites, with a big nasty pack and a lot of very tough defenders in the backs I can't see them giving Irish many attacking chances and they'll be happy to just work from the Londoners mistakes. LI still seem to be really struggling with how they should play and who are their best players for their tactics at the moment they're pretty disjointed and the sum is not equal to the parts. Expect another ugly game like last weeks but another Worcester win. Worcester by 6 no bp.

Harlequins v Leicester Tigers, The Stoop, London
Many pundits and fans are already saying that this could be a potential run through of the final. While it is too early to really say that these two are definitely the two best teams in the league at the moment and it should be an enthralling game. Quins seem to have found a bit more of their attacking mojo while still retaining the new improved scrummaging pack and comprehensive defence. Leicester are in the best form of their season so far with a quality back line reaping the benefits of their monster pack. The Tigers still will probably have the edge in the forwards and their props are the best in the league with the bench being almost as good, Quins probably have more threatening backs at least as a whole, but I am not sure how much good ball they will be getting. For me Tigers are just looking too unbeatable at the moment, they've more of that old Leicester aura back and Quins just don't have the temperament or forwards yet to compete with the best. Leicester by 5.

Sunday 22nd April

Exeter Chiefs v Northampton Saints, Sandy Park
What an incredible season it's been so far for the Chiefs, they've already achieve far more than any fans would have dreamt of before the season started and a win over the visiting Saints should seal their top four position. Saints travel to Sandy Park after a hammering at home from Leicester and will be looking to set things straight this weekend. While Exeter have a tough grafting side who all put their bodies on the line for each other, Northampton seem to have lost a lot of focus from last season, a lot of the players that were tearing up the Prem are looking out of sorts at the moment and missing their captain will only make this worse. For me home advantage should be enough to see Exeter through a very tough physical game. Exeter by 3 no bp.

I think Tigers will take 9 points from their last two games, 4 of them coming from the Stoop. A win but no TBP. Leicester are a juggernaut and are peaking at just the right time, they'll have too much for Quins.

Fancy Newcastle to shock SAracens, at Kingston Park.

I think you've been generous with Glaws score as well, but agree with your prediction of a Glaws win.

Northampton are a strangely brittle team - will they fire or will they crumble ??

based on this year's form the money must be on Exeter - the joker in the pack would be if the Foden Ashton Tonga'huia all got their mojo back

and why isn't Hayes in the Irish reckoning somewhere ??

Croyman wrote:
Northampton are a strangely brittle team - will they fire or will they crumble ??

based on this year's form the money must be on Exeter - the joker in the pack would be if the Foden Ashton Tonga'huia all got their mojo back

and why isn't Hayes in the Irish reckoning somewhere ??

Croyman, to be fair to Tommy, he's in his early 30s and is only 6'4" which is small for a lock these days - but there's no Chief with more heart, I'll give you that

Good predictions and interesting commentary, difficult to argue with any of those tbh, think Sarries might squeeze out a little more than you've predicted

Saracens should win by more than that. If Hodgson were playing I would suggestthey would win by some margin. The selection of Farrell will make things much tighter. Falcons need to stay close and heap the pressure on Sarries - trying to dominate the scrums. Hudson v Borthwick is worth the ticket price alone in the lineout.
Both sides need a win for various reasons and Sarries should be too strong.

Wasps are poor, but Bath have shown nothing to suggest they are capable of scoring 4 tries even in an unopposed session. Bath to win by 10, no TBP.

Gloucester's season is in freefall right now. Can they arrest the downward momentum against a Jekyll and Hyde Sale Sharks? I am not sure. After being booed off at HT last week, the Cherry and Whites must start well or the pressure will continue to build. If they get an early lead, they could move on to a comfortable win and back into HC spot. If tight Sale would be my favourites to sneak it and consign Glaws to the Amlin.

Warriors v Irish - Irish are on a long losing streak. Only bonus points have kept them clear of the relegation fight. Worcester to win and continue the LI woes.

Exeter v Saints
Cannot call this. We know what we will get from the Chiefs but lord knows how the Saints will turn up. Surely they have a good performance in them?

Not going to have one of your trademark 'doom and gloom' predictions about the match at The Stoop?

I agree with all your winners Yappy. I think most of these games are going to be very close, with the exception of Glaws who'll thump Sale (is that an emotional statement?!)

If you want

Quins are the best team in the Premiership. while form may be with Tigers, everyone knows the addage "Form is temporary, Class is permanent".

Expect the much improved Quins pack to edge the scrums, anchored by yet another world class performance from Ollie Kohn. while tigers may gain parity in the line-out - the quins back row will dominate their midlands counterparts.

Well marshalled by vastly superior half-backs, we should expect to see some stunning backplay as Quins secure the TBP win that guarantees top spot in the table.

tigers season continues to deteriorate as they are thrashed by Bath and overtaken by Sarries and Exeter.

Quins go from strength to strength, AP this year HC next.

Enough doom and gloom

Cheers for all the feedback peeps.

Really can't see Saracens scoring a lot against Falcons, they've just looked clueless so far and why would that change? Maybe a 6 or 9 point win at best but no more then one try.

Expect the much improved Quins pack to edge the scrums, anchored by yet another world class performance from Ollie Kohn. while tigers may gain parity in the line-out - the quins back row will dominate their midlands counterparts.

I'd be very suprised indeed if all that came to pass. The Parling vs Day battle last weekend was epic lineout work so Parling and able right hand man Croft will be ready for that one. The scrum, well if Quins edge that I'll be gobsmacked as last year the same props were man shamed and conceded a sin binning and penalty try. The breakdown will be a close affair but the backs is where the Quins machine really ticks and that is where Tigers defensive line often goes wandering, hopefully less so with the return of Ant Allen.

Should be a close one!

LondonTiger wrote:If you want

Quins are the best team in the Premiership. while form may be with Tigers, everyone knows the addage "Form is temporary, Class is permanent".

Expect the much improved Quins pack to edge the scrums, anchored by yet another world class performance from Ollie Kohn. while tigers may gain parity in the line-out - the quins back row will dominate their midlands counterparts.

Well marshalled by vastly superior half-backs, we should expect to see some stunning backplay as Quins secure the TBP win that guarantees top spot in the table.

tigers season continues to deteriorate as they are thrashed by Bath and overtaken by Sarries and Exeter.

Quins go from strength to strength, AP this year HC next.

Enough doom and gloom

In an ideal world that would be perfect. We can all dream eh?

Quins aren't going to edge the scrum- I will happily take something close to parity. The same props may have been manshamed last year but they are definitely better now than then. It's all about the breakdown.

Sarries by 5, Bath by 2, chiefs by 2, tigers by 6, LI and Wuss draw, Glaws by 12

Please folks, do not take a tongue-fimly-in-cheek post seriousley.

Sorry, I'd thought you'd just seen the light :P

We really should ask Bath_BTGOG to contribute to these threads. He's leading the Jeff SportGuru league, so obviously knows who will win!

HongKongCherry wrote:We really should ask Bath_BTGOG to contribute to these threads. He's leading the Jeff SportGuru league, so obviously knows who will win!

Bath has won a couple of the previous SG pools. Knows his rugby all right.

Equo Troiano wrote:I think Tigers will take 9 points from their last two games, 4 of them coming from the Stoop. A win but no TBP. Leicester are a juggernaut and are peaking at just the right time, they'll have too much for Quins.

Oh well, I suppose i'll settle for the 5 points instead.

Bath at home next week... (chuckle).