AP Round 13 Preview

So after round 12 which threw up some interesting results the table currently look like this:

Harlequins 12 11 0 1 47
Saracens 12 9 1 2 40
Northampton Saints 12 7 0 5 32
Leicester Tigers 12 6 1 5 32
Sale Sharks 12 6 0 6 29
London Irish 12 5 1 6 29
Gloucester Rugby 12 5 1 6 28
Exeter Chiefs 12 5 0 7 27
Bath Rugby 12 5 0 7 23
Worcester Warriors 12 4 1 7 21
London Wasps 12 4 0 8 21
Newcastle Falcons 12 2 1 9 11

Harlequins battled to an attritional win over a very tough Exeter at Sandy Park, with a last minute kick from Clegg pinching it from the Cheifs.
Saracens fell foul of their apparent bogey side again as Gloucester managed to pull off an impressive draw at Vicerage Road.
Northampton eased to a comfortable hiding of basement boys Newcastle.
Leicester and sale played one of the games of the weekend in a try fest at Welford Rd, Leicester just having enough to come out on top.
London Irish failed to gain a single point from a match for the first time this season as they lost away to Bath, this was Baths first win in 5.
And in the shock of the weekend Worcester shamed Wasps away as they managed a win on the road against the Londoners.

This weekend we have the following matches:

Friday 6th
Northampton welcome leaders harlequins tot he Gardens. Last season Quins won here in a fine display of finishing and defensive grit. If they can do this again then a win is on the cards, but Saints have been raising their games lately and the last few matches have shown the Londoners weak underbelly in the scrums. For me it'll be another game where Quins fail in the scrums and with Clegg playing I don't think we'll have enough for a win. Saints by 5.

Saturday 7th
Worcester take on Gloucester at Sixways. After last week Wuss will be well up for this game, but Glos have a lot more about them then Wasps as they showed saracens, and I expect them to put the new boys firmly back in their place and collect the try bp while they're at it. Gloucester by 14 try bp

Newcastle are at home to Exeter and this is a must win for the Falcons. But after a home loss last week for the Cheifs I think they'll come to town with a point to prove and will have too much across the park for Newcastle, especially with the kicing of their new flyhalf. Expect a mud fight but Exeter to imerge triumphant. Exeter by 3

In what used to be one of the biggest rivalries in the league Leicester welcome Wasps to Welford Rd. But after Wasps dire display against Wuss and their poor season form so far I don't think this match will have the same flavour as seasons gone by. Expect Leicester to be all over them like a fat kid on cake in the scrums, breakdown and play in the backs, and with Floods form on the up Leicester shouldn't be too worried at all about this one. Leicester by 14 try bp

Sunday 8th

London Irish will want to put the drubbing from Bath behind them and will be out to get some points this weekend, and with Sale coming to town we could be in for another game of the weekend. Both teams will probably go at it fast and loose and to be honest there's not much in it for either of them, both like that style of play and both have had very mixed form so far. In the end though i'm going with home advantage to tell. So LI by 6.

Lastly on Sun Saracens play Bath at home, Saracens have looked far too clinical to let a ragtag Bath outfit come to their backyard and get a win and after the embarassment last weekend they'll be looking to lay down a marker in their own way. Expect plenty or box kixks and rucks and Bath players getting smashed. Saracens by 5

Your thoughts?

Whenever I predict a loss for Quins, they win - and vice versa. So you will be pleased that I am going for Saints by >7. I think that saints will be too strong up front, will smash into teh breakdown to stop Quins slowing down the ball, and will run from everwhere. A big game is needed freom robshaw - but surely he needs a rest?

Tigers should beat Wasps comfortably - but we do struggle with them damn pests.

I think the long journey for Exeter makes Falcons favourites to sneak a win.

Worcester do not concede many tries - Glaws have talented backs but seem to be struggling at times to get the best out of them (Wasps capitulation excepted). Narrow win for Warriors.

Sale are a better team than many think. If they have some of their bigger, grizly forwards back, and if Peel can direct affairs as he did at the weekend, i can see an inconsistent (and troubled?) London Irish failing to get anything in this game.

Sarries v Bath. Bath will kick too much and Sarries will run the kick returns back with some aplomb. Bath's one match revival to be well and truly snuffed out.

You could be right with all of those except the Glos match, they have the forwrds when their heads are on anyway, to smash Wuss and then it's simply taking chances. They've been buildig form and I expect a comfy win.

Agree LI are looking troubled but I think Sale's set piece will let them down.

I can't comment on Quins too much lest I curse them!

The Pests are not to be underestimated. They always turn up against Tigers! They won't be easy to score against so it may be a win but no bonus point. I'll be there in the flesh (for a change) so am looking forward to it.

I can see Sarries handing out a spanking to Bath. The power of that Sarries defence against Donald and his unorganised midfield will result in chaos and plenty of turnover ball. I expect penalties and a sin binning for Bath as they struggle to cope.

Looking forward to tonight's game. Had forgotten that Cato had moved to Saints. dowson v robshaw will be fun.

Flood's injury worries me as we go into a critical few weeks for Tiger's season. The thought of Staunton playing at Ravenhill depresses me. Hopefully we still have far too much for Wasps and extend their losing run to 6.

For SportGuru i've gone for:
Saints by 6
Glaws by 5
Sale by 6
Chiefs by 3
Tigers by 24
Sarries by 12

Saints v Quins should be the game of the round and I must admit I am particularly excited about watching the backrow battle tonight. Saints at home should prove too much for Quins, but a losing bonus point shouldn't be sniffed at.

Whilst I would love Yappy's prediction for Wuss v Glaws, I feel the game will be far closer. These derbys are always scrappy affairs, but Glaws' set piece should see us through.

Irish were woeful against Bath and I constantly underestimate Sale, so by backing them for once I am probably giving them the kiss of death! But Sale seem to be forming a decent team.

I don't think Falcons were as bad as the score suggested against Saints, but they desperately need to start winning soon, but they won't have enough to be a dogged Exeter who are use to windy stadiums!

I'm sorry to Wasps fans, but their team is woeful at the moment! Their only strength is the lineout and Tigers are good enough to nullify this. Their scrum is very poor and Tigers will just steam-roller them. Tigers may be missing a lot of backs, but I'd be surprised if they see much of the ball anyway!

I think Irish made Bath look better than they were and Sarries will be smarting from the draw to Glaws, so this will be a relatively comfortable win for Sarries.

But Sale seem to be forming a decent team

The mixture of mobility, the Peel led high tempo and a set of cheating (in a good way) forwards mean they are a real pain in the backside to play against.

Good to see Kohn and Easter back for this game too

Leicester Tigers (v London Wasps, Welford Road, Saturday 5pm)
15 Geordan Murphy (c)
14 Horacio Agulla
13 Matt Smith
12 Anthony Allen
11 Alesana Tuilagi
10 Billy Twelvetrees
9 Ben Youngs
1 Boris Stankovich
2 George Chuter
3 Dan Cole
4 Steve Mafi
5 Geoff Parling
6 Tom Croft
7 Julian Salvi
8 Thomas Waldrom

Replacements
16 Rob Hawkins
17 Julian White
18 Logoviii Mulipola
19 Ed Slater
20 Ben Woods
21 Sam Harrison
22 Jeremy Staunton
23 Scott Hamilton

Hi Yappy - long time listener, 1st time caller etc.

Do you know what the score is with Ollie Smith at Quins? I know he was inujured mist of last season - is he still out? Or is he just not making the squads at the moment? Good to see Kohn back by the way, think we're still in trouble tonight though.

Also - does anyone know why Cato has been off the radar at Saints? Has he been injured too? Or just not selected?

Cheers!

Hi Bendog,

Smith's still injured unfortunatley, seems to be longterm as well so to be honest I imagine he'll be offloaded soon as we have a lot of cover at 13. shame because i've met him and he's a real nice bloke, but just unlucky with injuries it seems.

I'd forgotten about Cato at Saints, maybe injured?

Shame - Is he due back this year?

I'm starting to get on the Rory Clegg bandwagon now. Was skeptical at first - but he seems to become a strong playmaker this season. I don't think we should look too much into the kicking display at Exeter, everyone has a brain melt day - and Sandy Park is known for being a tough task for kickers.

Spot on about Clegg and he still nailed the one that counted most. He's bulked up and plays right on the gainline, breaks it well and distributes perfectly. He is going to be class, if he can just get more game time. Him and Wallace are two to watch for sure.

As to Smith, he was meant to be back a couple of times so now i'm not sure at all. I don't think we'll see him in the first team this season.

yappysnap wrote:I'd forgotten about Cato at Saints, maybe injured?

According to another Saints fan I know (so don't blame me is this is incorrect) but Cato picked up a small injury at the start of the season and then couldn't force his way back in once fit again. As a Saints fan I will be interested to see how he goes later today in a position we have a lot of competition in (Ashton, Diggin, Artemyev, Elliot).

Of course this will change when Ashton joins Saracens next season.

B91212 wrote:

yappysnap wrote:I'd forgotten about Cato at Saints, maybe injured?

According to another Saints fan I know (so don't blame me is this is incorrect) but Cato picked up a small injury at the start of the season and then couldn't force his way back in once fit again. As a Saints fan I will be interested to see how he goes later today in a position we have a lot of competition in (Ashton, Diggin, Artemyev, Elliot).

Of course this will change when Ashton joins Saracens next season.

Do you think Ashton will definitely move to Sarries?

I hope Cato can kick on for Saints.

Worcester v Gloucester - Gloucester by less than 5.
Newcastle v Exeter - Exeter by less than 5
Leicester v Wasps - Tigers by more than 10 with bp.
London Irish v Sale - Sale by less than 5 (Irish really were terrible last week)
Saracens v Bath - Saracens by more than 10 with bp

Saints Vs Quins - Saints by less than 5. Almost too tight to call. Going to go with Saints due to being at home but think that the final score to be really close and it could go either way. As a Saints fan one of my main concerns is our inability to close games out when leading and Quins are a team who never give up. If the ref keeps control at the breakdown without being totaslly whistle happy then the back row battle should be immense.

Btw I am loving most of the optimistic posters thinking that Sarries will beat Bath by a lot! A try bonus would be amazing! Seeing is believing.

My predictions

Newcastle vs Exeter - Exeter by 7

Leicester vs Wasps - Leicester by 15. Try bonus

London Irish vs Sale - London Irish to scrape it by 5. They are hugely inconsistent!

Saracens vs Bath - I have predicted Sarries by 12 on Sportguru but probably more likely Sarries by 7.

Saints vs Quins - Saints by 7. Too much power in the frontrow in my opinion.

beshocked wrote:

Do you think Ashton will definitely move to Sarries?

I hope Cato can kick on for Saints.

Yes I think he will move to Saracens. Decision helped by his best friend Tomkins arrival but also the greater money, playing for a team seriously on the up and being in the capital make it a big pull. Don't think he will leave the AP, his international ambitions are too big and can't fault him if he does move on, he's given the Saints an decent return on their investment.

Not seen enough of Cato this season to form an opinion but I too hope he kicks on. He seemed to have bags of potential but then seemed to stagnate.

Saints vs Quins - Saints by less than a score
Worcester v Gloucester - Glaws by more than a score
Newcastle v Exeter - Exe by less than a score
Leicester v Wasps - Tigers by more than a score with a TBP
London Irish v Sale - Sale by less than a score
Saracens v Bath - Saracens by more than a score

Saints v Quins: Saints by 21 (great prediction, eh?)

Worcester v Gloucester: Worcester settling in near the bottom of the table.
Gloucester by 14

Newcastle v Exeter: Newcastle have earned their spot at the bottom of the table.
Exeter by 3

Leicester v Wasps: Wasps have no chance in hell. Might soon challenge Newcastle's position. Shame.
Leicester by 20 or more (possibly much more)

London Irish v Sale: Toss up really.
But how about Sale by 1

Saracens v Bath: Which Bath shows up? The Bath which looked clueless? Or the Bath which looked terrific last weekend? No matter.
Saracens by 7.

doctor_grey wrote:Saints v Quins: Saints by 21 (great prediction, eh?)

Worcester v Gloucester: Worcester settling in near the bottom of the table.
Gloucester by 14

Newcastle v Exeter: Newcastle have earned their spot at the bottom of the table.
Exeter by 3

Leicester v Wasps: Wasps have no chance in hell. Might soon challenge Newcastle's position. Shame.
Leicester by 20 or more (possibly much more)

London Irish v Sale: Toss up really.
But how about Sale by 1

Saracens v Bath: Which Bath shows up? The Bath which looked clueless? Or the Bath which looked terrific last weekend? No matter.
Saracens by 7.

Saints by 21 eh? Your good, must be your Doctors instinct

Don't agree that Bath looked terrific last weekend. Played okay but thought the result was more because Irish were pants than Bath being particularly good.

Good game B, Saints were well on form yesterday. 1 all again this season.

B91212 wrote:

doctor_grey wrote:Saints v Quins: Saints by 21 (great prediction, eh?)

Saints by 21 eh? Your good, must be your Doctors instinct

Nah, I posted this after the match. I expected (hoped, really) Saints would win, but never expected a drubbing like that. I think Quins missed Evans, and might be a bit tired at the moment. But Saints were certainly the better team yesterday.

Saints were just brilliant for that 30 mins in the first half, blew us away and we couldn't get back in to it.

That's twice now the opposition have got a good lead on us in the opening 10 and we haven't been able to get back in to the game.

One thing for sure about Quins. They really need to take points on offer. No team in the Premiership can afford to miss easy penalty kicks as Quins have done. The gap between most teams is simply too small.

Strange about Clegg. He plays a nice out half, but must be getting the yips when kicking at goal. Hopefully for him he gets past that.

doctor_grey wrote:

B91212 wrote:

doctor_grey wrote:Saints v Quins: Saints by 21 (great prediction, eh?)

Saints by 21 eh? Your good, must be your Doctors instinct

Nah, I posted this after the match. I expected (hoped, really) Saints would win, but never expected a drubbing like that. I think Quins missed Evans, and might be a bit tired at the moment. But Saints were certainly the better team yesterday.

I knew that. I saw what time you posted and added 2 hours for the time difference between Alberta and New York State. Even us Saints fans wouldn't have dared to predict a margin that big.

All in all it was a poor attempt by me at being sarcastic

doctor_grey wrote:One thing for sure about Quins. They really need to take points on offer. No team in the Premiership can afford to miss easy penalty kicks as Quins have done. The gap between most teams is simply too small.

Strange about Clegg. He plays a nice out half, but must be getting the yips when kicking at goal. Hopefully for him he gets past that.

Also been impressed by Clegg with ball in hand in both last nights game and the Exeter game. Seems okay in defense as well but the kicking could become a problem if Evans comes back soon and Clegg doesn't get chance to bang a few over in actual top level games to put his mind at rest, otherwise it could fester until he next gets a chance.

What's Clegg's kicking historically been like? Didn't Homer have the kicking duties in the same team for England age grade rugby?

I really don't remember Clegg's kicking history. But I would have to think Quins wouldn't put him out there as the kicker if he usually can't kick.

niwatts wrote:What's Clegg's kicking historically been like? Didn't Homer have the kicking duties in the same team for England age grade rugby?

I seem to remember Clegg at 10, Burns at 15 and Homer on the wing, with homer kicking.

Oh the joys of supporting Glaws! Sublime one moment, woeful the next! I like to think this has given me a well rounded personality rather than 2 personalities!

There appear to be many parallels between supporting Glaws and London Irish HKC. Bonus point win in Paris against Racing Metro then abject defeat to Bath at The Rec. God only knows what to expect from the boys this afternoon!!!

I think that's very true Ozzy. It does make life more interesting though! Good luck today, it's going to be a tough game.

Good win for Worcester, well done to them. Their defence was excellent.

Had just about enough of Andy Goode and his stupid hair though. Stop playing well against Glaws, you sod!

Goode always plays well against us! It's time we signed him up just to stop him! But full credit to Wuss

well Irish just about won, thanks to a late late penalty from Jarvis. I couldn't watch the match, so hopefully Ozzy will have a quick report. Important win still, but the problem for LI seems to be stringing a good run of results together at the moment.

Sadly no report from me as I couldn't go today so had to make do with listening on the radio. From that in summary sale started well and went 10-0 inside 10 minutes, we nicked a try back a couple of minutes later and then spent most of the rest of the half in the Sale 22 but only went in 12-10 up at the break.

Second half was nip and tuck and a bit scrappy and both sides scored 3 penalties, although it sounded like Sale came closest to scoring another try. Homer missed 3 off the tee which is unheard of, although one was from a fair old distance.

It's a massive 4 points for us, which keeps us on the coat tails of those in the play offs which is great. Not so great was a yellow card for David Paice which the radio commentator said could have been red, so a citing may well ensue (have to watch the highlights later), and injuries during the game to Topsy Ojo and Jamie Gibson. They are on top of Shontayne Hape being pulled out injured before the start, and news that Joe Ansbro may be out injured for the rest of the season.

thanks for that Ozzy. Homer missed three kicks? He hasn't done that for a very long time...

One was about 5 metres inside our own half and a bit on the angle - not easy at all although he's landed these before ... another was normally an easy one for him but he had a Sale player stood receiving treatment right in his eye line who I think should have been told to move by Barnes ...

Wayne Barnes is one of the worst refs going at the moment, scrappy matches and him seem to go hand in hand. I wonder who has the pleasure of his company this weekend...