NRL 2011 Wooden Spoon predictions

On OZ sites all the money seems to be on the Sharks and the Cowboys. The Sharks still don't have any real class at 6 and 7 and apart from Gallen, most of their pack are good grafters but not playmakers.

The Cows are a one-man band and even in the Townsville paper you will see supporters saying that buying Thurston was the worst move they ever made. This might seem odd but he's costing the equivalent of 4 or 5 first-graders, so they can't keep enough good players around him to get full value out of him.

Manly are a possible outsider for the wooden spoon. They'll be relying on Cherry-Evans at 7. He may look good in the lower grades but I think he's only played 1 NRL game. Most of their wide attack relies on Lyon but if Cherry-Evans doesn't work out and Lyons moves to 6, I think their ability to structure attack will be very limited.

My tip is the Cows. By Round 6 they will be in the Top 4 then they will slip all the way back to their usual position. Nothing will change in Townsville until they have compulsory AA attendance for all their players.

I think it will be the Cowboys & the Sharks at the bottom of the table again in 2011 (Ignoring the Storm, who would have finished 5th had it not been for their salary cap breaches).
I think the Cowboys might have enough quality to condemn the Sharks to the wooden spoon though.
Their forward pack isn't great & they've lost two representatives in Luke O'Donnell & Willie Mason during the winter. Matt Scott is a good player though & Dallas Johnson & Glenn Hall are fairly good signings, Johnson in particular.
It's their backline that you'd have to hope has enough quality to avoid the bottom spot.
Jonathan Thurston, Willie Tonga, Matty Bowen & new signing Brent Tate lead a backline, in my opinion, far superior to that of the Sharks.

Farm Duck,

Glad you're here mate!

Do you think a team will surprise everyone and implode like Canterbury did a couple of years back?

I'd lay my money on the Cowgirls right now, but would want to leave my options open! Do you think Thursty will see out his contract in Towns?

Norfolk: Tate's out for the whole season.

Bicester: I think Manly are the imploders, and I don't understand where the money goes. They let Hodkinson, Perry, Farrar and Dean Whare go - Farrar was their best player and Whare's only young but he scored 3 tries in his NRL debut, that has to be worth a 1-year contract to see how he develops.

If Lyon gets injured, I think Manly could be in deep trouble. Lyon will probably miss 4 games - 3 Origins + Anzac Test.

I forgot: Thurston has to stay in Townsville because he is supposedly on $700K. None of the other teams could afford that - they'd end up like the Cows, having to sell half the team to buy JT.

JT is probably worth that money, but, if the total team cap is $4.1 mill, can you really afford one player on $700K?

Of course he is, sorry. I still think they'll have enough to finish above the Sharks though.

As for Manly, I think they'll have enough to worry more about keeping up with the pack chasing the final couple of play-off spots, rather than the Cowboys & the Sharks behind them.
They've got some strong forwards in the likes of Kite, King, Watmough & Stewart. I agree that if things don't start well, there might be an over reliance on Jamie Lyon to create tries. If he can, Steve Matai & David Williams have proved in the past to be good enough players though.

Also, when does Thurston's contract end?

Thurston is signed until the end of 2013. He will only be 29 then, so still time to make a fortune in French RU.

The way the gap is opening between SL and NRL salary caps, I don't think an SL club could afford him.

Interesting that you mention a switch to Union as a possible career move. Is that something that has been rumoured? I've never heard it mentioned over here.

He got a big offer from Biarritz about 2 years ago. The salary cap in the French RU is $8 million per team. That's just over 5 mill pounds. Compared to SL, where it's 1.6 mill. On top of that, the recent tax ruling means that foreign players in UK can't have their money paid into a tax-free offshore pension anymore, so many OZ/NZ players effectively got a 40% pay cut.

There is also Japanese RU, which pays ridiculous money considering the standard.

Can you see him making the switch though? As you've said, he'll be 29 when his contract ends. He'll surely, barring something extraordinary, still be first choice half-back for both Queensland & Australia.

Obviously we never know what these people are like at the personal level. Maybe his girlfriend is a brain surgeon who wants to work in Paris for a few years. One of the main reasons Gasnier went to France was because his girlfriend is French. Chris Hicks left Wire so his wife could resume her schoolteaching job before her 3 years Leave without Pay expired - so she could keep her seniority for transfers, etc.

But I agree that JT has the OZ 7 jumper for as long as he wants it - unless he has sex with a dog, of course! (We probably need to keep that in mind.)

If he chooses to continue to play in the NRL beyond 2013, do you think he'll stay with the Cowboys? Or do you think he'll be on the move?

Impossible to guess. What if the Cowboys find a handful of young stars this year and turn into a legitimate threat. You wouldn't want to leave then.

He's already done everything you can do in RL, except captain QLd and OZ. Now Cam Smith will be next in line there so that probably won't happen.

North Queensland is a strange place and sometimes, once people settle in there, they could never leave. They don't even consider themselves Qlders up there. They'll write FNQ as their State - Far North Qld.

If I was him, I would find it too frustrating to play in a team that only wins 5 games a year.

Farm,

Do you think Thursty will stay at 7 for Queensland and Oz or do you think he'll move to 6 when Locky calls it a day? I thought Cooper Cronk was outstanding in the 4 nations, particuarly the Storm link between 1, 7 and 9.

Sorry to keep peppering you qith questions but would it seem strange for JT to take a pay cut and go play for another team before his contract's up or is RU $ the future?

I think Cooper Cronk is the outstanding candidate to replace Darren Lockyer when, or perhaps more aptly, if he ever retires. Which would more than likely mean Thurston shifting to five-eighth. Not that it makes too much difference in the modern game, with the halves tending to simply control one side of the field each.

He won't leave before his contract's up. Cronk is definitely next in line for 6 or 7 at Qld but, for OZ? What if Todd Carney maintains his form? What if Pearce and Carney lead the Roosters to a GF win this year? Or an Origin series win?

As it stands I think Lockyer and JT have the Qld and OZ 6 and 7 for as long as they want it. Cronk is only 27 so he'll be around for 4 years. Pearce and Carney are only early 20s so they might have to wait.

Quade Cooper...

Firstly, Cooper isn't an NRL player yet and stands to make more money in RU - the ARU not only has more money but they don't have many household names, so they need him.

Secondly, if you were Quade, wouldn't you rather play for NZ, next to Benji?

I try not to get too excited by any rumours until an official announcement is made, but I really think (hope?) Quade Cooper might be an NRL player in the next couple of years. Maybe even after the Union World Cup this year, ready for the 2012 season. It might even depend on the success of the Wallabies. What better way to bow out than lifting the Cup in New Zealand?
If he does, as you've said, he'll have the choice of the representing the land of his birth, New Zealand, or his adopted nation, Australia. The lure of State of Origin might prove enough to make him choose the Kangaroos.

farmduck wrote:On OZ sites all the money seems to be on the Sharks and the Cowboys. The Sharks still don't have any real class at 6 and 7 and apart from Gallen, most of their pack are good grafters but not playmakers.

The Cows are a one-man band and even in the Townsville paper you will see supporters saying that buying Thurston was the worst move they ever made. This might seem odd but he's costing the equivalent of 4 or 5 first-graders, so they can't keep enough good players around him to get full value out of him.

Manly are a possible outsider for the wooden spoon. They'll be relying on Cherry-Evans at 7. He may look good in the lower grades but I think he's only played 1 NRL game. Most of their wide attack relies on Lyon but if Cherry-Evans doesn't work out and Lyons moves to 6, I think their ability to structure attack will be very limited.

My tip is the Cows. By Round 6 they will be in the Top 4 then they will slip all the way back to their usual position. Nothing will change in Townsville until they have compulsory AA attendance for all their players.

Would you like to try again now we're at the halfway stage?

The Cowboys have surprised me I must admit after their last few years. They obviously owe alot to Thurston but I think Mason's departure has been good for the club morale and they are a much tighter unit this year. They seem almost unbeatable at Dairy Farmers.

Manly will finish top 4 I'd say. The Foran/Cherry-Evans halves combination is one of the best in the NRL. The forwards seem to have more grunt this year and they should make amends for the dismal performance in the play-offs when they were ravaged by injuries and suspensions.

The Roosters are the biggest losers thus far. I think Parra/Canberra/Penrith will finish the last 12 rounds stronger than Easts/Cronulla and Souths. I'll stick my neck out and tip Cronulla for the wooden spoon.

As it stands now i predict that the wooden spoonists in the NRL will be the Gold Coast Titans.

Yes, Titans have slumped badly and are in with a shot for the wooden spoon. They got across the line 8 times against the Bulldogs last week - and still lost. Scott Prince was scratching his head again last night after the loss to Penrith.

Roosters beat the Warriors tonight - maybe they'll have a better run home.

That win from Manly against Canterbury tonight was ruthless - some freakish plays which lead to tries and the go-forward and bone-shattering defense was ruthless.

Raiders dont seem to ne getting any better, id say between them and the sharks no playmakers mean the sharks struggle to score! Also im suprised by how poor souths have been

Canberra are now in big trouble - with Dugan's ankle injury, Campese (out for the rest of season now) and Josh Mc Crone.

Souths having a shocker. On paper at the beginning of the season they looked like Top 8 material.

I thought Cowboys would implode as I posted but they've been really good. A radio sports show host in Brisbane tipped them to do really well pre-season and ppl laughed at him!

Canberra are dropping like flies and have an idiot coach who's far to conservative. I'd tip them to bottom out now; GC are also abysmal and the Chooks are a night on the beer away from total melt down!

After the Gold Coast Titans win yesterday i might have to have a rethink who i think will get the wooden spoon now.

...and how unlucky was Canberra after being 0-24 down in 63rd minute to come back and level at 24-24...only to lose to a field goal?

I still think they'll avoid the wooden spoon even though they are only on 8 points now.

I'll say it will be Cronulla-Sutherland