AP Round 10 Preview (is it that time already?)

First topic message reminder :

So the last weekend of Premiership Rugby is upon us before we get to the HC double headers! I'm expecting some hum dingers this round as teams look for good performances to grow their confidence and to get those W's and the all important winning momentum leading up to Europe's make or break two weeks. Are you excited?

A quick recap of the last weekend saw Worcester battle past a frankly flacid Bath team, and Exeter stun Sale away at Edgely Park. Sat followed with Northampton man-shaming Saracens at the Gardens then LI continued their sporadic form with a turgid win over Wasps, before Leicester showed talk of them missing out on top four this season was lunacy as they heaped woe on Gloucester at the Shed. The weekend finished with league leaders Quins putting bottom dwellers Falcons to the sword.

The table as it stands:
P W D L Pts
Harlequins 9 9 0 0 39
Saracens 9 7 0 2 30
London Irish 9 4 1 4 24
Northampton 9 5 0 4 22
Exeter Chiefs 9 4 0 5 21
Gloucester Rugby 9 4 0 5 20
Sale Sharks 9 4 0 5 20
London Wasps 9 4 0 5 19
Bath Rugby 9 4 0 5 18
Leicester Tigers 9 3 1 5 18
Worcester Warriors 9 3 1 5 16
Newcastle Falcons 9 1 1 7 7

So on to this weekends games:

First up on Friday night it's the Falcons hosting Gloucest, both teams go in to the game off poor performances and to me it could go either way, alot depends on the weather with rain suiting Falcons and drier conditons helping Gloucester. Although all home games are now must wins for falcons if they want to avoid the drop in the end I can't see past a Gloucester win, especially if they finally get some organisation within the backline.

Gloucester by 5 but no bp. Losing bp for Falcons.

On Sat Bath host Sale at the Rec and although they've been very hit and miss with their rugby these last few weeks I think they'll have too much for an imported Sale team lacking much spirit. Still though I can't see Bath's forwards controlling the game and it may well come down to how Donald plays to see how comfortable the win is.

If Donald plays well Bath by 10, if not Bath by 3.

Also in Saturday we have one of the best derby's going with 10th placed Leicester hosting 4th placed local rivals Saints. Both teams will be happy with their results last weekend and neither will want to ruin the feel good vibe with a loss now. Two key battles here for me to decide the match, the packs, if Saints come out firing like last weekend then an early lead is pretty certain, can they then stem the inevitable Tigers fight back. And also at flyhalf with Lamb v Flood being an interesting battle to watch for EPS spots.

I think i'll have to play it safe and say home advantage will win out giving Tigers their first home win of the season. Tigers by 8.

Cheifs host Worcester next on Sat and it may not be pretty but it should be a good battle for the forwards. I expect Exeter to show their extra smarts and prem savvy and grind out a win against Wuss who've looked competent at times but nothing more.

Exeter to score a decisive try and then keep that score ahead throughout. Exeter by 7.

Sun see's LI travel to Saracens and to be honest you have to expect a backlash, Saracens were ineffective last weekend unable to conjure anything for the full 80 so they'll be looking to lay down a marker for their home fans this time round. LI are another team searching for form and I don't think it's going to be found this weekend, I just can't see their pack competing against Sara's.

Can't see Saracens losing twice, I can see a winning bp and Saracens by 18 though.

And the last match of the weekend has Harlequins on the road to Wycombe to face Wasps. The pests have had a sporadic season to date and i can't see it getting better as the league leaders travel to them in a rich vein of form. Harlequins will be without various players due to injury so this will be the squads toughest test to date but they should rise to it and carry on the unbeaten run.

Quins to win by 8 in a scrappy match.

Ah, I won't be disappointed beshocked, I hope you send out a full strength side against us, that way when we pull off the win there can't be any excuses about resting players and not being at full strength!

Ozzy3213 wrote:I was thinking more about Quins, Bath and Saracens, all of whom still have realistic chances of qualifying, and all of whom have massive games next week.

Quins have a bit of a dilemma actually. The squad's been hit by several long term injuries in a couple of positions - centre, no 8 and second row - and we have several key players just coming back from injury.

I'd expect squad rotation to continue in the front row, the two fit senior locks to start but with one to be replaced early if the game's going OK, Evans and Care to play most of the match with Casson (first start this season) and Hopper (third start ever). In the back three, we might be able to afford to give Brown a rest but Smith and Stegmann will probably gain more from the experience than the rest. What we'll do in the back row depends on which No 8s are fit. If Easter is OK, Wallace may start for Fa'asavalu or Robshaw. If not, academy lad Joe Trayfoot is the only recognised 8 we have left, and we're more likely to have Wallace on the bench. That said, there's no shortage of good flankers in the squad, so I'd not be alarmed if Mo and Robshaw are rested and Skinner and Wallace start.

But the selection is likely to be driven as much for the team to have time together than for players to rest.

Ozzy it won't be full strength but it will be the best we can put out bar injuries and suspensions.

I can always use the excuses of the ball, the ref, Vicarage Road, the video ref, the London Irish players being on illegal steroids, heads in the clouds,we let you win, the weather, etc.

Will Casson start and not Urdipella at 12? not sure if either of them are good enough yet to be honest and can't see who'll lead the defense in JTH's absense. Lots of pressure on Hooper now!

As to backrow, we could be missing Easter and Robshaw or they could both be fine, wont know till the teams announced but i have my fingers crossed!

At least we have Mike Brown though.

Ah good shout, I like your thinking beshocked.

We need Bowden to be fit, and I am pretty confident that he will be...

Toby Booth's thoughts on the game with Saracens.

Really looking forward to the Croft vs. Wood battle. Croft has to prove he has the all-round game to warrant his England place and prove he's not a luxury we can't afford at the moment. Want to see him hitting the breakdown, doing the grunt work and getting some turnovers.

Cole vs. PDJ will be a good 'un too.

Cole vs. PDJ will be a good 'un too

Will PDJ play loosehead with Tiny on the bench? Can't see that to be honest unless there's an injury. Deacon vs Lawes could be interesting and the battle between the quiet and modest pair of Chuter vs Hartley could be of interest (particularly if the microphones are close enough). The half backs should be of interest to the England coaching team (what's left of them).

formerly known as Sam wrote: Will PDJ play loosehead with Tiny on the bench? Can't see that to be honest unless there's an injury.

I'm just going from the article on the BBC website, where PDJ discusses his excitement at the prospect of facing Cole. I just assumed that he would be starting from this, maybe I'm wrong! It's a shame about Tom Youngs' injury, would have loved to see him up against Hartley. Think Youngs' definitely one for the future.

hhttp://www.quins.co.uk/news/5893.php

Chris Robshaw talking up Wasps.

Tom Youngs is a beast at what under 20? How did him and ben ever come from the same parents...

Quins team is up for the trip to wycombe. we have Lowe, JTH, Clegg, Dickson, Easter, Robson and Fairbrother all out so it's looking a little patchwork. On a happier note Monye is back on the bench after injury and the reports in that Tom Guest has returned to full training now ready to be back soon.

15. Mike Brown
14. Seb Stegmann
13. Matt Hopper
12. Tom Casson
11. Sam Smith
10. Nick Evans

1. Joe Marler
2. Joe Gray
3. James Johnston
4. Tomas Vallejos
5. Charlie Matthews
6. Maurie Fa'asavalu
7. Luke Wallace
8. Chris Robshaw (C)

Replacements

16. Chris Brooker
17. Mark Lambert
18. Kyle Sinckler
19. Pete Browne
20. Will Skinner
21. Richard Bolt
22. Ben Urdapilleta
23. Ugo Monye

Tom Youngs is a beast at what under 20? How did him and ben ever come from the same parents....

24. He is the older brother and has brought through the academy as a JTH style crash ball centre with good hands. He played a lot for the under 20s there but struggled to hold down the 12 shirt when it came to breaking into the Tigers team (not creative enough). Meyer having come from SA and seen the damage that can be done by a big ball carrying hooker ala Smit, Brits etc etc told him he'd be better off spending a couple of years learning the trade. He went off to Notts for a couple of years and broke into their first team, cemented his place and has now returned. His scrummaging and ball carrying are very good and his lineout work is strong but with Cockerill as DOR that needs to be bullet proof in order to get a regular start.

I'm just going from the article on the BBC website, where PDJ discusses his excitement at the prospect of facing Cole

Hmm, just seen that, interesting. I'd back Cole to have him for breakfast in the scrum (PDJ looks far stronger at TH than LH) and Tiny will be a big loss for the Saints.

PDJ on the bench according to the game article on here

Gotta say I am liking our backrow even with Robshaw out of position. A brilliant blend of power, speed, leadership and skill on the floor there.

The back three are looking very good too when they get time on the ball, especially on the counter. I just worry about the centres, especially in defense.

Leicester Tigers (v Northampton Saints, Welford Road, Saturday 2.15pm)
15 Geordan Murphy (c)
14 Horacio Agulla
13 Matt Smith
12 Billy Twelvetrees
11 Alesana Tuilagi
10 Toby Flood
9 Ben Youngs
1 Marcos Ayerza
2 George Chuter
3 Dan Cole
4 Louis Deacon
5 George Skivington
6 Steve Mafi
7 Julian Salvi
8 Thomas Waldrom

Replacements
16 Rob Hawkins
17 Boris Stankovich
18 Martin Castrogiovanni
19 Ed Slater
20 Ben Woods
21 Sam Harrison
22 Jeremy Staunton
23 Scott Hamilton

Northampton Saints: 15 Ben Foden,14 Chris Ashton, 13 George Pisi, 12 Tom May, 11 Jamie Elliott, 10 Ryan Lamb, 9 Lee Dickson; 1 Soane Tonga'uiha, 2 Dylan Hartley (c), 3 Brian Mujati, 4 Courtney Lawes, 5 Mark Sorenson, 6 Phil Dowson, 7 Tom Wood, 8 Roger Wilson. Reps: 16 Mike Haywood, 17 Alex Waller,18 Paul Doran Jones, 19 Samu Manoa, 20 Ben Nutley, 21 Martin Roberts, 22 Stephen Myler, 23 Jon Clarke

Saracens line-up vs London Irish

15 Alex Goode
14 Joe Maddock
13 Chris Wyles
12 Adam Powell
11 James Short
10 Owen Farrell
9 Ben Spencer
1 Matt Stevens
2 John Smit
3 Carlos Nieto
4 Steve Borthwick
5 Mouritz Botha
6 Jackson Wray
7 Andy Saull
8 Ernst Joubert

16 Jamie George
17 Rhys Gill
18 Petrus du Plessis
19 George Kruis
20 Kelly Brown
21 Luke Baldwin
22 Duncan Taylor
23 David Strettle

Let's just say I am not as optimistic as I was of a win. Still I think we can prevail in a tight encounter. Saracens by 5.

Oh and Ozzy we are resting players - Burger and Brown. C.Hodgson and B.Barritt are out injured.

I'll post our team here as soon as it's up beshocked.

I think it could be a very interesting game to be honest looking at your side.

Any one looking at changing their predictions yet?

Interesting Robshaw at 8 Yappy, has he played much there?

Wasps team:
15 Hugo Southwell
14 Tom Varndell
13 Dominic Waldouck
12 Riki Flutey
11 Christian Wade
10 Nick Robinson
9 Joe Simpson
1 Tim Payne
2 Rob Webber
3 Ben Broster
4 Ed O’Donoghue
5 Marco Wentzel
6 Richard Birkett
7 Matt Everard
8 John Hart (c)

16 Tom Lindsay
17 Zak Taulafo
18 Jeremy Castex
19 Joe Burton
20 Sam Jones
21 Charlie Davies
22 Ryan Davis
23 Elliot Daly

Ozzy3213 wrote:Interesting Robshaw at 8 Yappy, has he played much there?

Yea last season he covered there a few times maybe 4 or 5 appearences all in all so not much. His style of play though and natural build should help him out and the quality of the two flankers will be a big help also. Fa'Asavalu when at his best is a one man wrecking ball.

I'm really interested to see how he goes yappy. England have a problem at 8, and if he shows up well there, I am wondering if he could potential be the answer there at international level.

Hhmmm maybe like how Haskell can cover all the backrow slots. I'm not sure if he truly has the pace required though for internationals at 8. He'll link and support and bust holes but you see some of the runs Hask made in the 6N's and I don't think Robshaw could do that.

7 or 6 is his position for England I believe. Either with Croft for the former or Wood for the latter.

Guest is the one to watch. Gutted he's been out all this time.

London Irish team to face Saracens...

15. Tom Homer; 14. Topsy Ojo*; 13. Joe Ansbro*; 12. Jonathan Spratt*; 11. Adam Thompstone; 10. Dan Bowden (Captain); 9. Paul Hodgson*;
1. Alex Corbisiero*; 2. James Buckland; 3. Paulica Ion*; 4. Nick Kennedy*; 5. Matt Garvey; 6. Declan Danaher; 7. Jamie Gibson; 8. Chris Hala’ufia*

Replacements: 16. David Paice*; 17. Clarke Dermody*; 18. Faan Rautenbach*; 19. Bryn Evans*; 20. Ofisa Treviranus*; 21. Guy Armitage; 22. Adrian Jarvis; 23. Darren Allinson

Irish by less than a score.....


you heard it here first!

How's Bowden doing as captain? Wasn't he binned last time he had the armband?

Strong looking Exiles team, but still can't see past Saracens winning. A lot depends on their 9 & 10 though.

He's been captain for a lot of the season as Dermody has missed quite a few games through injury.

The yellow he got was a team yellow to be honest as we'd given away a load of penalties for being offside and the ref just had enough.

Bloody hell London Irish have pretty much a full strength team. Who are you missing? Obviously bad boy Armitage and waste of space Hape but other than them?

Sarries will have to do the job in the set piece on the weekend.

We are missing our two first choice 9s, our first choice 10 and 12.

Not nice to play the dangerous but inconsistent London Irish.

Currently missing.

Injured - Tagicakibau, Joseph, Yarde,

Banned - Armitage, Hape, Shingler

It is pretty much our first choice pack, give or take a couple of 50/50 calls, it's the backs where we are missing players really, mainly in the centres where Spratt is 3rd choice 12 and Ansbro 2nd choice 13. Thompstone also started the season behind Yarde on the wing, and would be behind Tagicakibau and Armitage and possibly Joseph there as well.

I think we could see a real war of attrition with the pack battle being absolutely key.

Got to be honest and say it's as good a chance as we are going to get of coming back from Watford with a win. I suspect that our back row will be tasked with unsettling your young 9, which if we can will make it very difficult for your backs to create anything.

I suspect we could see both teams final scores being divisible by 3.

Currently missing

Injured - Tagicakibau,Vunipola,Smith,Hodgson, De Kock, Wigglesworth,Barritt,Burger.
Suspended - Brits

By the way I mean no offence by calling Hape a waste of space. Just don't know why you signed him at London Irish. Admittedly he won't be back in the England squad so you'll have him all year round! (Except for bans or injuries of course).

Yes likely it will be a battle of the boot.

I wasn't overly enthralled by us signing Hape to be honest, but he's done ok so far for us in fairness.

He's no Mapusua that's for sure, but I think he could turn out to be a good signing.

Some big names missing from Sarries. Burger is a beast and too my mind is irreplaceable and with the midfield organiser Barritt missing as well that will significantly relax the pressure on the opposition 9/10/12. The continuing issues at scrum half and missing the experienced guidance of Hodgson is likely to limit the flowing attacking moves but Farrell has a big and generally accurate boot so he will no doubt be looking for the corners.

A tough game too call as Sarries pack is strong and organised but I think they look a tad vunerable and LI just seem to have more weapons in their backline. I think it will be tight and a lot will depend on the weather conditions, a windy day could hamper Sarries tactical kicking and penalty shots (there will be penalty shots against LI) but a still day could make life awkward for the NotNots.

The problem is won't he be on a fat juicy salary? He was afterall England's no 1 inside centre.

The LI players I am most worried about are Homer and Ojo.

I agree Sam the pack has to step up.

Key players in my opinion for Sarries are Joubert,Spencer and Farrell.

Especially Ernst Joubert. He needs to help out Spencer as much as possible.

Just looked at what the overall community predictions in Sportguru for the Saracens vs London Irish match. I am shocked!

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/club-rugby/aviva-premiership

London Irish are 7/2 to win. Not too bad.

Is the Wasps side out yet? Quins are missing a few through injury.
I like the fact that Ugo is on the bench - he has to fight for his place against 2 well performing young wings.

15 Hugo Southwell
14 Tom Varndell
13 Dominic Waldouck
12 Riki Flutey
11 Christian Wade
10 Nick Robinson
9 Joe Simpson
1 Tim Payne
2 Rob Webber
3 Ben Broster
4 Ed O’Donoghue
5 Marco Wentzel
6 Richard Birkett
7 Matt Everard
8 John Hart (c)

16 Tom Lindsay
17 Zak Taulafo
18 Jeremy Castex
19 Joe Burton
20 Sam Jones
21 Charlie Davies
22 Ryan Davis
23 Elliot Daly

Just answered my own post! Looks like that is about as strong a side as Wasps can field - Flutey and Wauldock combo could be great if it fires.

Already posted ProdDavid!

Yea they're looking strong for this match and them having Flutey and Waldock back will be bad news for us.

Again it's going to come down to the forward unit and Evans dominating the game. I look at Wasps pack and they seem vulnerable there, we get a grip in tight and don't let go and we'll sneak it. It'll be ugly but a wins a win.

I can't see the Wasps scrum being up to much but their lineout options look good. It's in the loose they'll need to earn their money though as that Wasps backline will be excellent if given a sniff of quick ball. The Quins backrow might win them this game if they can slow down the Wasps ball and pressurise Simpson and Robinson.

So happy Burger and Brown arent playing as that backrow could along with your forwards could of got well on top of ours.
but Wray and Saull, both good players, is a different kettle of fish and fancy Danaher and Gibson to hopefully get the better of them. Hala'ufia back is a huge boost.
Close game I reckon, wont be much in it.

stnick88 I wouldn't be so confident of getting the better of our backrow if I were you. Of course you are entitled to though.

Jackson Wray has looked good whenever he has played for us this season. He gets over the gainline frequently and is deceptively fast - having being part of the Saracens side who won the JPMorgan sevens tournament in a previous season, also ex U20s. Andy Saull has lost a bit of form but if he rediscovers it will be a handful. Again he's pacy and ex Eng U20s.Of course Ernst Joubert is the main man. When Saracens play well he is one of the men generally firmly at the centre.

This is a backrow based around dynamism and pace.

not saying we will pal, just saying it is a lot more of an even battle now and Burger is a huge loss for you. Saull isnt the player he was for me and Gibson is on great form. Wray is a good prospect and Danaher an experienced solid player so will be a good battle. Joubert is exceptional and one of the best if not the best 8 in the AP, Hala'ufia brings a different kind of game and his physicality is a test for anyone.

Agree stnick88 fair summary.

Who backed Gloucester for tonight then???

Ozzy3213 wrote:
Newcastle vs Gloucester - Falcons fighting for their lives now and Glaws struggling a bit for results - Newcastle by less than 7

Not me.

One from one for the weekend

LondonTiger wrote:As to the rest, the only place I disagree is the Bath-Sale match. Sale will be hurt by letting a good lead slip against Exeter and have a pack big enough to cause Bath serious problems. Bath should win, but I can see Sale sneaking it.

Finally i got something right.

I'm on 50% at the moment, please please please please Quins don't make me wrong about another game!!

yappysnap wrote:I'm on 50% at the moment, please please please please Quins don't make me wrong about another game!!

Sorted. I hope Hopper isn't badly injured.

A win is a win. The Sarries vs London Irish was an ugly encounter as expected. Owen Farrell did what he knows best. Kick. It worked though with 5 out of 5 he did the damage.

London Irish made more ground with ball in hand - their no 5 Garvey looked good and their big no 8 was an imposing figure.

Unfortunately for London Irish they played us at our own game - kicking too much. When you see a dangerous counterattacking player like Topsy Ojo aimlessly kicking away the ball you do question the London Irish gameplan!

They didn't rely on their freeflowing game with they are renowned for and they were punished for it.

The only try which London Irish "scored" should have not been given as there was no angle which showed grounding of the ball. It looked like the ball was held up to every man and his dog in the crowd. The awarding of this try made it a nervy few minutes for Saracens and it meant London Irish obtained yet another losing bonus point.

Quite pleased with the result. The officiating was very poor though with errors for both teams. It was scrappy and the game didn't blow because the ref became whistle happy.

We should be much more effective against Ospreys. Missing the likes of Burger, Brown (in the first half),Brits,Barritt,Hodgson,Wigglesworth/De Kock was always going to make things difficult.