Aviva Premiership - End of Season Run In

First topic message reminder :



As we come to the last four rounds, Exeter are clear at the top, and London Irish are adrift at the bottom (though not relegated yet). The fight for both Top 4 and th eplayoffs and Top 6 and Europe promises to be thrilling and will go down to the wire.

Exeter Chiefs

Gloucester (H), London Irish (A), Sale (H), Harlequins (A)
With that run-in Exeter should be sealing a home semi sooner rather than later and should be topping the table for the first time.
Predicted final points 83
Predicted final position 1st


Saracens

Northampton (A), Bath (H), London Irish (A), Gloucester (H)
It is 2009 since Saracens failed to make the play-offs. With the run-in they have that run of Top 4 finishes should be extended by another season - yet it is an indication of just how competitive the league has been and Sarries indifferent form that thoughts of finishing outside the play-offs can even by mildly contemplated. Sarries have thrashed Saints three times already this season, though perhaps Northampton will be hoping to catch Saracens on a post European low. The other 3 sides will all want to win to keep their seasons alive, but Sarries should have too much.
Predicted final points 75
Predicted final position 2nd


Wasps

Sale (A), Worcester (H), Northampton (H), Newcastle (A)
Last season's table toppers have at times been sublime, but have failed to show that form often enough to guarantee a Top 4 place yet. Whilst still hot on Saracens coat tails, I am struggling to see them securing a home semi - and they will not be wanting to go away to Falcons needing points to make the Top 4. The two home games should be comfortable wins, but trip to Salford will be crucial against a Sale team who are not out of the fight for the play-offs and will certainly be eyeing up a Top 6 finish at least.
Predicted Final points 67
Predicted final position 4th


Newcastle

Worcester (A), Sale (H), Leicester (A), Wasps (H)
Falcons have been in the top 4 for most of the season and with 12 wins only Exeter (13) have more. With a tricky run in they need to win on the road in round 19 to help ease the nerves. Falcons have failed to secure a LBP this season and being in the play-off spots with a negative points difference is an interesting quirk. Despite 6 TBPs, only the bottom 2 have scored less tries (and points )than Falcons. They may well need to secure some BPs in these last four rounds.
Predicted final points 63
Predicted final position 5th


Leicester
Bath (Twickenham), Northampton (H), Newcastle (H), Sale (A)
Are Tigers putting in one of their trademark end of season flourishes to make the play offs for the umpteenth time in a row? Quite possibly though they need to keep winning. Three wins from the last four games (so long as it includes Falcons) should be enough. Nerves will be soothed a little if they can win "The Clash" at Twickenham.  This will not be easy as Bath still have hopes of a high table finish, yet (in part due to the quirks of East Midlands derbies) this could be their easiest fixture.
Predicted final points 67
Predicted Final position 3rd


Gloucester
Exeter (A), Harlequins (H), Bath (H), Saracens (A)
Those two tricky road trips have probably ended Glaws hopes of a play-off spot. However with the potential for the teams around them to drop points they need to secure as many wins as they can and see where that puts them.
Predicted Final points 60
Predicted Final position 6th


Sale
Wasps (H), Exeter (A), Newcastle (A), Leicester (H)
Win all four matches and Sale could well sneak into the play-offs. However it is more likely that their efforts will help decide which of the sides above them misses out. May well just lose out on a top half finish, but even so Diamond seems to have them punching above their weight.
Predicted final points 58
Predicted Final position 7th


Bath
Leicester (Twickenham), Saracens (A), Gloucester (A), London Irish (H)
Bath will be hoping they still have something to play for when their Academy Side visit the Rec in Round 22. I would make them favourites to win at the Rec against Tigers, but playing in London removes home advantage. Could well struggle for points in the away fixtures as their season seems set to fizzle out.
Predicted final points 53
Predicted Final position 8th


Harlequins
London Irish (H), Gloucester (A), Worcester (A), Exeter (H)
Little to play for except pride.
Predicted final points 42
Predicted Final position 9th


Northampton
Saracens (H), Leicester (A), Wasps (A), Worcester (H)
Little to play for except pride, they may need to beat Worcester to avoid 11th place.
Predicted final points 38
Predicted Final position 10th


Worcester
Newcastle (H), Wasps (A), Harlequins (H), Northampton (A)
Can they stay ahead of LI? Yes. Can they catch Saints? Maybe.
Predicted Final Points 37
Predicted final position 11th


London Irish
Harlequins (A), Exeter (H), Saracens (H), Bath (A)
A topsy turvy season has told us to take nothing for granted. However London Irish need a minor miracle and their fate is really outside their own hands. Two really tough home games means the question really is when not if they are relegated.
Predicted Final Points - 22
Predicted Final Position 12th

nathan wrote:It won't be, he can't stop blowing the whistle

Both teams are going hard at the breakdown and I think he wants to stamp his authority on the game early otherwise it could get messy and niggly.

Need to sort the set piece quick. Up against it in the scrum but doing well at the breakdown.

Falcons have no chance with those stats

Great defence but it's surely going to take its toll ...

nathan wrote:Falcons have no chance with those stats

Certainly one way traffic but only 9pts on the scoreboard. Need to get our hands on the ball though.

Is it me or are Falcons not getting the rub of the green, 3 penalties for high tackles, all of them around waist level or just above as the ball carrier either ducks into the tackle or gets tackled and falls into it. a blatant knock on before the first penalty.

They cannot get into the game and the ref seems to be one reason why.

Ref is being harsh, expect them to get the calls second half

I'm not sure we'll past it, I can't complain too much. We're not imposing ourselves on the game at all, we just seem happy to defend. Very odd, unless we're going for damage limitation and then go for it in the 2nd.

Certainly a couple of pretty clear offences by Chiefs missed but not sure if that's why they're not getting into it - Chiefs look pretty much on top and only excellent defence has kept the score down so far ...

Bad half for us. Luckily we're only 9 down, we need a kick up the ass.

Spoke too soon....

Well nothing to lose now, we have to change the game plan.

Need a bigger one now

I don't think I've ever seen a stat so one sided as possession 93% to 7%.

Exeter often have high percentage possession stats due their style of play, 93% is rather high though!

Falcons don't deserve to be here on this showing. They are defending and then kicking it away. They've been poor.

As much as I don't enjoy watching Exeter, they play very effective rugby.

They go phase after phase and rarely make a mistake and then starve you when you do get the ball.

Poor Goneva is having a mare...that's his bread and butter!

nathan wrote:Falcons don't deserve to be here on this showing. They are defending and then kicking it away. They've been poor.

Sorry Nathan but we do deserve it, we finished 4th. This is a big step up for us, we're not used to the pressure and it's showing.

It's too soon for you guys, you need another year to develop because this game is very one sided

Goneva has certainly been poor

Piss poor decision

nathan wrote:It's too soon for you guys, you need another year to develop because this game is very one sided

That's not the same as saying we don't deserve it, which is harsh.

We deserve to be here but we've struggled. To be fair though, the top 2 are streets ahead of the rest. No other side would be getting close to Exeter either.

I dont agree but meh, I don't care.

Hopefully that will kick them in to gear

Over a season they deserve to be there. Comprehensively beaten today.

Have to say, other than sarries, lineouts have been awful this year

Not much not to agree with mate, you finish in the position you deserve over the season. We were the 4th best side in the league....hence we're in the playoffs.

Are we making a good account of ourselves.... Not at all, we've been awful.

Most certainly not.

The occasion has got to us for sure. Crazy squad Exeter have though, England's 2nd best tighthead can't even make the 23, insane.

3rd best. Sinckler cole for me. Williams lacks a bit scrum time.

I'm trying to decide whether that or flood having a conversion charged down best sums up the day.

No 7&1/2 wrote:3rd best. Sinckler cole for me. Williams lacks a bit scrum time.

Possibly, still crazy depth though.

How many individuals errors have they made today, hope this puts the fire in their bellies for next season

Well that pretty much sums the day up.....absolutely shocking.

nathan wrote:How many individuals errors have they made today, hope this puts the fire in their bellies for next season

Insane amount, truly awful. Rabbit in headlights.

Didn't get to see the game...only jist seen the score .

Looks like we got battered.

Sgt_Pooly wrote:The occasion has got to us for sure. Crazy squad Exeter have though, England's 2nd best tighthead can't even make the 23, insane.

Think Williams is still struggling with the triceps injury he got against Scotland

Disappointing games, really. Both seemed over in the first half. Saracens got away too fast on the scoreboard, and Newcastle couldn't get any ball when they had the wind.

Shame about Jack Willis. Dai Young says it's a hyperextension, which sounds better than dislocation, but we'll have to wait to see if he is out of the tour.

Did Exeter really have 92% possession in the first half?

I thought it was 93%...I'm surprised we had 7% tbh, must have been when we got penalties at the breakdown.

CHIEFS SIDE TO FACE SARACENS

15 Lachie Turner
14 Jack Nowell
13 Henry Slade
12 Sam Hill
11 Olly Woodburn
10 Joe Simmonds
9 Nic White
1 Alec Hepburn
2 Luke Cowan-Dickie
3 Tomas Francis
4 Mitch Lees
5 Jonny Hill
6 Dave Ewers
7 Don Armand (capt)
8 Sam Simmonds

16 Jack Yeandle
17 Ben Moon
18 Greg Holmes
19 Sam Skinner
20 Thomas Waldrom
21 Stuart Townsend
22 Gareth Steenson
23 Ian Whitten

Saracens team to face Exeter Chiefs (Sarries appearances):
15 Alex Goode (260)
14 Sean Maitland (41)
13 Alex Lozowski (59)
12 Brad Barritt (222)
11 Chris Wyles (253)
10 Owen Farrell (173)
9 Richard Wigglesworth (209)
1 Mako Vunipola (143)
2 Jamie George (195)
3 Vincent Koch (38)
4 Maro Itoje (93)
5 George Kruis (158)
6 Nick Isiekwe (34)
7 Jackson Wray (200)
8 Billy Vunipola (84)

16 Schalk Brits (221)
17 Richard Barrington (135)
18 Juan Figallo (89)
19 Will Skelton (24)
20 Michael Rhodes (68)
21 Ben Spencer (131)
22 Marcelo Bosch (120)
23 Nathan Earle (37)