Aviva Premiership - End of Season Run In

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As we come to the last four rounds, Exeter are clear at the top, and London Irish are adrift at the bottom (though not relegated yet). The fight for both Top 4 and th eplayoffs and Top 6 and Europe promises to be thrilling and will go down to the wire.

Exeter Chiefs

Gloucester (H), London Irish (A), Sale (H), Harlequins (A)
With that run-in Exeter should be sealing a home semi sooner rather than later and should be topping the table for the first time.
Predicted final points 83
Predicted final position 1st


Saracens

Northampton (A), Bath (H), London Irish (A), Gloucester (H)
It is 2009 since Saracens failed to make the play-offs. With the run-in they have that run of Top 4 finishes should be extended by another season - yet it is an indication of just how competitive the league has been and Sarries indifferent form that thoughts of finishing outside the play-offs can even by mildly contemplated. Sarries have thrashed Saints three times already this season, though perhaps Northampton will be hoping to catch Saracens on a post European low. The other 3 sides will all want to win to keep their seasons alive, but Sarries should have too much.
Predicted final points 75
Predicted final position 2nd


Wasps

Sale (A), Worcester (H), Northampton (H), Newcastle (A)
Last season's table toppers have at times been sublime, but have failed to show that form often enough to guarantee a Top 4 place yet. Whilst still hot on Saracens coat tails, I am struggling to see them securing a home semi - and they will not be wanting to go away to Falcons needing points to make the Top 4. The two home games should be comfortable wins, but trip to Salford will be crucial against a Sale team who are not out of the fight for the play-offs and will certainly be eyeing up a Top 6 finish at least.
Predicted Final points 67
Predicted final position 4th


Newcastle

Worcester (A), Sale (H), Leicester (A), Wasps (H)
Falcons have been in the top 4 for most of the season and with 12 wins only Exeter (13) have more. With a tricky run in they need to win on the road in round 19 to help ease the nerves. Falcons have failed to secure a LBP this season and being in the play-off spots with a negative points difference is an interesting quirk. Despite 6 TBPs, only the bottom 2 have scored less tries (and points )than Falcons. They may well need to secure some BPs in these last four rounds.
Predicted final points 63
Predicted final position 5th


Leicester
Bath (Twickenham), Northampton (H), Newcastle (H), Sale (A)
Are Tigers putting in one of their trademark end of season flourishes to make the play offs for the umpteenth time in a row? Quite possibly though they need to keep winning. Three wins from the last four games (so long as it includes Falcons) should be enough. Nerves will be soothed a little if they can win "The Clash" at Twickenham.  This will not be easy as Bath still have hopes of a high table finish, yet (in part due to the quirks of East Midlands derbies) this could be their easiest fixture.
Predicted final points 67
Predicted Final position 3rd


Gloucester
Exeter (A), Harlequins (H), Bath (H), Saracens (A)
Those two tricky road trips have probably ended Glaws hopes of a play-off spot. However with the potential for the teams around them to drop points they need to secure as many wins as they can and see where that puts them.
Predicted Final points 60
Predicted Final position 6th


Sale
Wasps (H), Exeter (A), Newcastle (A), Leicester (H)
Win all four matches and Sale could well sneak into the play-offs. However it is more likely that their efforts will help decide which of the sides above them misses out. May well just lose out on a top half finish, but even so Diamond seems to have them punching above their weight.
Predicted final points 58
Predicted Final position 7th


Bath
Leicester (Twickenham), Saracens (A), Gloucester (A), London Irish (H)
Bath will be hoping they still have something to play for when their Academy Side visit the Rec in Round 22. I would make them favourites to win at the Rec against Tigers, but playing in London removes home advantage. Could well struggle for points in the away fixtures as their season seems set to fizzle out.
Predicted final points 53
Predicted Final position 8th


Harlequins
London Irish (H), Gloucester (A), Worcester (A), Exeter (H)
Little to play for except pride.
Predicted final points 42
Predicted Final position 9th


Northampton
Saracens (H), Leicester (A), Wasps (A), Worcester (H)
Little to play for except pride, they may need to beat Worcester to avoid 11th place.
Predicted final points 38
Predicted Final position 10th


Worcester
Newcastle (H), Wasps (A), Harlequins (H), Northampton (A)
Can they stay ahead of LI? Yes. Can they catch Saints? Maybe.
Predicted Final Points 37
Predicted final position 11th


London Irish
Harlequins (A), Exeter (H), Saracens (H), Bath (A)
A topsy turvy season has told us to take nothing for granted. However London Irish need a minor miracle and their fate is really outside their own hands. Two really tough home games means the question really is when not if they are relegated.
Predicted Final Points - 22
Predicted Final Position 12th

I am really nervous about tonight's game. While I firmly believe we should win, we should also have won last time out. We have to be more clinical this time.

CHIEFS SIDE TO FACE SALE SHARKS

15 Lachie Turner
14 Jack Nowell
13 Henry Slade
12 Sam Hill
11 Santiago Cordero
10 Joe Simmonds
9 Nic White
1 Alec Hepburn
2 Jack Yeandle (capt)
3 Tomas Francis
4 Mitch Lees
5 Sam Skinner
6 Dave Ewers
7 Don Armand
8 Sam Simmonds

16 Luke Cowan-Dickie
17 Ben Moon
18 Greg Holmes
19 Dave Dennis
20 Thomas Waldrom
21 Stuart Townsend
22 Gareth Steenson
23 Tom O’Flaherty

Sale: 15.Will Addison; 14.Byron McGuigan, 13.Sam James, 12.Luke James, 11.Marland Yarde; 10.AJ MacGinty, 9.Faf De Klerk; 1.Ross Harrison, 2.Rob Webber, 3.WillGriff John, 4.Bryn Evans, 5.Andrei Ostrikov, 6.Tom Curry, 7.Ben Curry, 8.Jono Ross (Capt.).

Replacements: 16.Marc Jones, 17.Aexandru Tarus, 18.Halani Aulika, 19.Josh Beaumont, 20.Josh Strauss, 21.Will Cliff, 22.Johnny Leota, 23.Paolo Odogwu

Gloucester Rugby:

15. Jason Woodward; 14. Tom Marshall, 13. Billy Twelvetrees, 12. Mark Atkinson, 11. Henry Trinder; 10. Billy Burns, 9. Callum Braley; 1. Josh Hohneck, 2. James Hanson, 3. John Afoa; 4. Ed Slater (capt), 5. Mariano Galarza; 6. Jake Polledri, 7. Lewis Ludlow, 8. Ben Morgan

Replacements:

16. Motu Matu’u, 17. Paddy McAllister, 18. Fraser Balmain, 19. Tom Savage, 20. Ruan Ackermann, 21. Ben Vellacott, 22. Andy Symons, 23. David Halaifonua

Unavailable for selection:

Gareth Denman, Lloyd Evans, Willi Heinz, Richard Hibbard, Henry Purdy, Val Rapava Ruskin, Jacob Rowan, Charlie Sharples, Ollie Thorley, Owen Williams



Bath Rugby team to face Gloucester Rugby

15. Tom Homer
14. Matt Banahan
13. Max Clark
12. James Wilson
11. Aled Brew
10. Rhys Priestland
9. Kahn Fotuali’i

1. Beno Obano
2. Tom Dunn
3. Anthony Perenise
4. Charlie Ewels (c)
5. Elliott Stooke
6. Tom Ellis
7. Francois Louw
8. Taulupe Faletau

Replacements

16. Jack Walker
17. Lucas Noguera
18. Shaun Knight
19. James Phillips
20. Zach Mercer
21. Max Green
22. Freddie Burns
23. Cooper Vuna

Sale Sharks
Starting XV:
15.Will Addison;
14.Byron McGuigan,
13.Sam James,
12.Luke James,
11.Marland Yarde;
10.AJ MacGinty,
9.Faf De Klerk;
1.Ross Harrison,
2.Rob Webber,
3.WillGriff John,
4.Bryn Evans,
5.Andrei Ostrikov,
6.Tom Curry,
7.Ben Curry,
8.Jono Ross (Capt.).

Replacements: 16.Marc Jones, 17.Aexandru Tarus, 18.Halani Aulika, 19.Josh Beaumont, 20.Josh Strauss, 21.Will Cliff, 22.Johnny Leota, 23.Paolo Odogwu

Tough night so far....gutted we've lost 3 key players...

Interesting 1st half

Disappointed with those last two calls from the ref. Hope deano's media talk that was clearly meant for the ref won't play a part in this game.

Shame to see so many falcons injuries

Is flood injured?

nathan wrote:Is flood injured?

Broken hand.

Tigers errors are killing us. Too many knock one and just not doing basics. Deano has played a blinder with the ref, Pearce is not giving much up as he doesn't want to be accused of deciding the game. He's really letting Falcons off at the scrum with some of his calls, almost protecting them.

Agree about the errors. Not as bad for Tigers as last week, but still there. That last line-out which was not straight, a few knocks. On the other hand, losing three players in the first half has got to be a killer.

Conditions are really bad?

Not raining here but I'm about 11 miles from the ground

How is that not a penalty?

How was the hooker able to throw in with the front of both feet clearly over the line and in the field of play?

nathan wrote:How is that not a penalty?

Apparently he's legal. Swimming down the side of the mail blatantly but still "legal".

I mean the player being in front of the ball playing it after a knock on

Odd sequence.  Almost a try, but I thought the first knock was against Leicester, not Newcastle.

No, the Newcastle player lost it forward then it was a knock on by Tigers.
Don't like how he just went and check because young said so

nathan wrote:No, the Newcastle player lost it forward then it was a knock on by Tigers.
Don't like how he just went and check because young said so

I think it was a somewhat fortunate decision for Tigers. Looked a mess with the ball ricocheting everywhere.

I remember when the TMO first came in and the laws at the time were the referee couldn't check on the request of a player.

Nice finish by Fitzgerald. Though we had advantage anyway and we'd have scrummed that over the line.

Wasn't a Fortunate decision at all, it was pretty clear cut. Newcastle player carrying it dropped it forward and the a tigers player knocked oked it on. Right decision in the end but I agree with you, don't like refs allowing players to dictate the game

Really looks like Leicester has a physical advantage against Falcons. And beginning to be a difference.

Your struggling massively with your 10

15 clearly did release

Hmmm, maybe not enough

Well that's been coming. Our defence isn't good enough. Need some fresh legs off the bench. Need Ford in the ear of the ref as well Falcons are sealing off after every forwards carry.

Goneva is a beast. Looks like he eats Ford-burgers for dinner. Drilled him twice.

O'conner clearly had won that turnover

Although give it to goneva

Frak me this ref must of been paid off

That's a very harsh yellow card.

gotta be a try!!!!

That was a stone cold turnover from Ford. Ref has absolutely bottled it.

Tigers don't deserve to be in the playoffs and they won't be.

This is Frak harsh on Tigers, absolutely Poopie from the ref. Ford another clear turnover

Just give it ref!

FFFAAAAALLLLCCCOOOOONNNSSSSSSS

Frak sake

That's disgusting, he asked the question, yes or no. Then couldn't answer the question if he blew the whistle. Surely it shouldn't be a try

YYYOOOUUUUU FECKIN BEAUTIES!!!!!!!!!

Shocker of a decision. Referee had already blew up before he grounded; Tigers had stopped playing.

Referee also said 'I can't see any clear reason why I can't give the try' - well...that's the not the question he asked. He asked 'try: yes or no?'

Considering the injuries before and during the game and going 10 points down and the scrum being stuffed , the lads showed such grit. Really proud of them.

Don't think Ford got the turnover, looked like he was balanced on top of the ruck rather than supporting his own weight.

The yellow was probably more due to a head knock (missed by the ref) than anything intentional by Kalemafoni. He looked like he was struggling and should not have been trying to get back into the defensive line.

Newcastle probably scored (based on the player with the best view celebrating early) but there was no way the ref could give it, especially without seeing the grounding and the question asked. He had blown the whistle before Hogg's second attempt. Dodgiest call I have seen in a while.

Newcastle worked hard and played 80. Put Leicester under all sorts of pressure at the end, hung around with all the injuries and got the reward (however dodgy at the end). Leicester will be asking how they managed to lose that.

Pearce by trying not to affect the result has ended up defining the result. Horrendous bottling of the question from the TMO. I mean Pearce was the same throughout an odd mix of refusing to make a decision and then racing to decisions.

Falcons forwards were excellent in the final 15 minutes and the Tigers piss poor defence couldn't handle it. If the opposition are getting away with sealing off then you have to push up and use your line speed. We had no line speed which is suicide against a big pack like Falcons.

I do hope O'Connor falls on his sword he's been dreadful this season. Our attacking patterns are so basic and predictable.

The ref, no evidence he grounded his first attempt. He didn't release for his second attempt

formerly known as Sam wrote:
I do hope O'Connor falls on his sword he's been dreadful this season. Our attacking patterns are so basic and predictable.

Possibly, but it's also the second week in a row that a reliable lineout would've been enough to turn a loss into a win. Completely negated Leicester's early pressure.

But that won't go down well on the Tigers boards because Bakewell is the second coming.

nathan wrote:The ref, no evidence he grounded his first attempt. He didn't release for his second attempt

Aahhh Nathan it was clear as day he scored the try.....

Well done Falcons!!!

Brilliant to hopefully see you boys in the playoffs.

Reading this match thread

Yappy there were a few dodgy decisions....but you get that with this ref. We've been on the receiving end many a time.

However...being on the right side...ill take it.

Aye we’ve been on the wrong side enough over the last few years. Let’s face it, you don’t often get the rub of the green at places like Welford Road!

Fuzzy Dunlop wrote:

formerly known as Sam wrote:
I do hope O'Connor falls on his sword he's been dreadful this season. Our attacking patterns are so basic and predictable.

Possibly, but it's also the second week in a row that a reliable lineout would've been enough to turn a loss into a win. Completely negated Leicester's early pressure.

But that won't go down well on the Tigers boards because Bakewell is the second coming.

The lineout was passable. We only lost two? One of which was a crooked throw from an injured TPN. Yes the mail is messy but Falcons got out of jail by Pearce missing the obvious swimming up the side.

Any variation in attack could have got us some more points. Falcons were rarely stretched and backpedaling. We can't just keep relying on our set piece to bail us out of holes created by a defence that lacks any real line speed and organisation and an attack that's so predictable everyone knows that we'll use the midfield dummy runner to go wide after some forward carries. Bakewell revolutionised the forward attack play by giving the scrum half options of forward runners and got them taking the ball whilst moving. That's how horrendous we were before he came in.

MOC was a weak supposedly low risk choice and we're paying the price. Imagine what Ackerman would have achieved with this squad!

Tbh all that would await Tigers in 4th place is a mauling by Chiefs that papers over the cracks anyway. Falcons will give it much more of a go, and although the result will probably be the same it could be a vital stepping stone for their future development.

People say that Exeter are the exception, but we now have another team that was in the second division only 5 years ago that have now made the playoffs, let's hope it's remembered next time ring-fencing comes up. It could so easily have been them frozen out.

Fuzzy...I think the difference is that we wanted a top 6 finish and anything else is just a bit of a " wow whats this."

We may well get a tonking next week from Wasps...and Exeter if we make the play offs...but ah..what a season.

Bar a few exceptional games...in general...the one thing we do better than most is we just don't give up. We are never beaten until the final whistle goes....and that's the thing most falcons fans are respecting the most.

We've won so may games in the last few minutes of games this season.