Wales v South Africa, 26 November

   
WALES v SOUTH AFRICA
26 November 2016
KO: 17:30 GMT
Principality Stadium, Cardiff

Live on BBC Two & S4C

Referee: Romain Poite (France)
Assistant Referees: Greg Garner (England), Tom Foley (England)
TMO: Graham Hughes (England)

A. Head to Head

31 Played 31
2 Won 28
1 Drawn 1
28 Lost 2
837 Points 459

B. Recent Form

17 October 2015
Twickenham Stadium, London, England
23–19 to South Africa

29 November 2014
Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
12–6 to Wales

21 June 2014
Mbombela Stadium, Nelspruit
31–30 to South Africa

14 June 2014
Growthpoint Kings Park, Durban
38–16 to South Africa

9 November 2013
Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
15–24 to South Africa

11 September 2011
Wellington Regional Stadium, Wellington
17–16 to South Africa

13 November 2010
Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
25–29 to South Africa

C. Teams

WALES 

Halfpenny; North, J Davies, S Williams, Liam Williams; Biggar, G Davies; Jenkins (capt), Owens, Francis, Charteris, Wyn Jones, Lydiate, Moriarty, Tipuric.

Replacements: Baldwin, Smith, Lee, Hill, Faletau, Lloyd Williams, S Davies, Roberts.

SOUTH AFRICA

Johan Goosen; Ruan Combrinck, Francois Venter, Rohan Janse van Rensburg, Jamba Ulengo; Elton Jantjies, Faf de Klerk; Tendai Mtawariri, Adriaan Strauss (capt), Lourens Adriaanse, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Lood de Jager, Nizaam Carr, Uzair Cassiem, Warren Whiteley.

Replacements: Malcolm Marx, teven Kitshoff, Trevor Nyakane, Franco Mostert, Jean-Luc du Preez, Piet van Zyl, Pat Lambie, Lionel Mapoe.

This has got drab 0-0 draw written all over it

RiscaGame wrote:This has got drab 0-0 draw written all over it

Yeah but we'll learn from that drab 0-0 draw

This is a genuine question. With Italy beating South Africa. Does this mean they (ITALY) go above Wales in the world rankings?

majesticimperialman wrote:This is a genuine question. With Italy beating South Africa. Does this mean they (ITALY) go above Wales in the world rankings?

Er. No:

1	(1)	NEW ZEALAND	94.57
2	(2)	ENGLAND	89.84
3	(3)	AUSTRALIA	87.51
4	(4)	SOUTH AFRICA	84.49
5	(5)	IRELAND	83.67
6	(7)	WALES	81.72
7	(8)	FRANCE	80.75
8	(6)	ARGENTINA	80.71
9	(9)	SCOTLAND	79.78
10	(10)	FIJI	75.49
11	(12)	JAPAN	75.25
12	(11)	GEORGIA	73.78
13	(13)	ITALY	72.23

I am sure Wales can spark into life for one bloody game. Should get their 3rd ever win.

It looks like being a matter of who wants it more. You have two teams in all sorts of trouble performing well below the sum of their parts.

My guess is that Wales should sneak it based on a number of factors. Wales have at least beaten the teams they should have beaten this autumn, albeit narrowly. The WR ranking points system would put them fractionally ahead once home advantage is taken into account. And I think a first ever loss to Italy will have shaken the Boks quite badly. They'll no doubt be up for the Wales game, but there must be some cracks in their confidence.

Against that, you have to set Wales's habit of losing narrowly to the SH in the dying minutes. It's likely to be a tense affair, though perhaps not in the way we might have hoped at the outset of the AI window.

IF you compare Rob Howley to Eddie Jones. You all ways here Eddie Jones say ( We will pick our best 23 ) Players for this game.

You never hear Rob Howley say we WE WILL PICK OUR BEST 23 PLAYERS FOR THIS GAME. Do you?

The thing is I can see Wales improving... I can't see SA improving mind. They were good enough a few months ago to beat AUS and ARG so they're not dire but when in doubt go to your base yet SA have no base, no old reliables in the closet to bring back.

Doesn't mean Wales are going to win but I'd say in a race to the bottom, SA will beat Wales to it at the moment.

Uh.. You had to remind me that we're playing again this weekend; we are in for a right slug-fest.

Wales have always struggled against SA, or against any of the Tri Nations for that matter. Added to that, we always struggle against any team if we're given the favourites tag. So playing SA and people saying we should win has just got car crash written all over it for me Not sure I'll be able to watch.

George Carlin wrote:

majesticimperialman wrote:This is a genuine question. With Italy beating South Africa. Does this mean they (ITALY) go above Wales in the world rankings?

Er. No:

[size=13][b]1[/b][/size]	(1)	NEW ZEALAND	[size=13]94.57[/size]		[size=13] [/size]
[size=13][b]2[/b][/size]	(2)	ENGLAND	[size=13]89.84[/size]		[size=13] [/size]
[size=13][b]3[/b][/size]	(3)	AUSTRALIA	[size=13]87.51[/size]		[size=13] [/size]
[size=13][b]4[/b][/size]	(4)	SOUTH AFRICA	[size=13]84.49[/size]		[size=13] [/size]
[size=13][b]5[/b][/size]	(5)	IRELAND	[size=13]83.67[/size]		[size=13] [/size]
[size=13][b]6[/b][/size]	(7)	WALES	[size=13]81.72[/size]		[size=13] [/size]
[size=13][b]7[/b][/size]	(8)	FRANCE	[size=13]80.75[/size]		[size=13] [/size]
[size=13][b]8[/b][/size]	(6)	ARGENTINA	[size=13]80.71[/size]		[size=13] [/size]
[size=13][b]9[/b][/size]	(9)	SCOTLAND	[size=13]79.78[/size]		[size=13] [/size]
[size=13][b]10[/b][/size]	(10)	FIJI	[size=13]75.49[/size]		[size=13] [/size]
[size=13][b]11[/b][/size]	(12)	JAPAN	[size=13]75.25[/size]		[size=13] [/size]
[size=13][b]12[/b][/size]	(11)	GEORGIA	[size=13]73.78[/size]		[size=13] [/size]
[size=13][b]13[/b][/size]	(13)	ITALY	[size=13]72.23[/size]		[size=13] [/size]

Those are out of date and dont include the last set of matches, but no Italy get a boost and SA dropped but they didnt swap over. Theres a limit on how many points can be exchanged to stop "outliers" over affecting the rankings.
The rankings now are (stolen from Mrs P in the rankings thread):

1 NEW ZEALAND 94.78
2 ENGLAND 89.84
3 AUSTRALIA 88.13
4 IRELAND 83.46
5 SOUTH AFRICA 82.56
6 WALES 81.77
7 SCOTLAND 80.57
8 FRANCE 80.13
9 ARGENTINA 79.92
10 FIJI 75.49
11 JAPAN 75.20
12 GEORGIA 74.24
13 ITALY 74.16
14 SAMOA 70.91
15 TONGA 69.95


With "home advantage" of + 3 that makes Wales (rankings) favourites for the game. If they win big its actually possivble for them to break into the top 4.

Which just goes to show they arent the only team thats had some dissapointments recently, and that theres a bit of a weakness in the rankings that they reflect wins above performances. The last time they had a real crisis they ended up ranked outside the top 8 for an extended period. This time everyone else is doing them a favour by being rubbish too.

There really is a gap opening up between the top 3 and the rest though, which seems about right. 5-9 certainly look like toss of a coin could beat each other on their day teams at the moment, and the "second tier" Pacifics and Italy able to stick their heads up and give them competitrive games "on their day".



For this match Wales just need players who are going to front up and deliver somewhere close to what they are cpaable of. In some casews they have been reduced to sleecting pretty verage Regional players becuase they are running out of options, thats one thing. But when the big names are looking like wet fish thats something that should be really concerning. It looks like heads have dropepd and they arent showing anything like the passion they did 4 years ago, even in losing causes.
Theres a few slection tweaks (Cuthbert) but for me its really about who turns up and wants to be there.
This is a pretty huge game for both teams. If SA lose and its not a classic of comeptitve quality rugby it sreally is rock bottom for them, and I cant see how their coaching set up can survive. Their extent of their decline is more shocking to me than Wales' is.

Lots of ifs but I think Wales can take this, and suddenly thinsg will look a lot rosier even if it does act as a sticking plaster for a team that looks pretty rotten and bereft of leadership.

I love the idea that there should be a 'moral' ranking which completely ignores wins and places teams according to their performances and how aggrieved fans feel about their team bombing. Scotland would place top 3 easily. 

Wales have to be targeting a win here. They will never get a better chance to beat a South African side than this. This Boks team is really very inconsistent and if you watch the Italy game, you realise that they don'y have a great deal of confidence in each other.

Despite all the doom and gloom from Wales they've only lost to Australia who are currently on a winning streak in the NH - with wins over Wales,Scotland and France.

Victories over Argentina and Japan have helped Wales maintain a healthy world ranking which is still good for RWC seeding.

Funnily enough a win vs SA would mean results wise Wales would have done well.

Results wise yes. But this team needs to demonstrate evolution in performance if we are to challenge the top teams (and in that bracket I put Ireland, England, All Blacks and Australia).

I think the welsh rugby public are fed up with the same turgid rugby which just about gets us over the line against similar teams, but falls woefully short against the best.

beshocked wrote:

Funnily enough a win vs SA would mean results wise Wales would have done well.

It's a bit of a lose-lose situation then. If we do somehow beat SA then the cronies at the WRU as well as the pink cowboy hat-wearing fans will think we've done well. The reality is no, we've not done well at all and we are lucky that some teams are playing as bad if not worse than us right now. The harsh truth is that we haven't done well for a long time. There was a slight improvement from our first team in NZ but that's gone backwards and it was always going to go that way as soon as the union agreed to hand over the reigns to Gatland's backroom mob.

GavinDragon wrote:Results wise yes. But this team needs to demonstrate evolution in performance if we are to challenge the top teams (and in that bracket I put Ireland, England, All Blacks and Australia).

I think the welsh rugby public are fed up with the same turgid rugby which just about gets us over the line against similar teams, but falls woefully short against the best.

Yes you would assume the latter given the recent attendance to live matches.

George Carlin wrote:I love the idea that there should be a 'moral' ranking which completely ignores wins and places teams according to their performances and how aggrieved fans feel about their team bombing. Scotland would place top 3 easily. 

Wales have to be targeting a win here. They will never get a better chance to beat a South African side than this. This Boks team is really very inconsistent and if you watch the Italy game, you realise that they don'y have a great deal of confidence in each other.

moral rankings... i love it.

Japan... play nice rugby for little guys.... big pluses. Pinches players from all over the pacific... sorry chaps you're down.

Moral world no.1 would probably be Argentina.

All players are Argentinian born and bred, most now are playing purely in Argentina on shoestring budgets. They play cracking rugby and hell they all cry during their anthems.

fa0019 wrote:

George Carlin wrote:I love the idea that there should be a 'moral' ranking which completely ignores wins and places teams according to their performances and how aggrieved fans feel about their team bombing. Scotland would place top 3 easily. 

Wales have to be targeting a win here. They will never get a better chance to beat a South African side than this. This Boks team is really very inconsistent and if you watch the Italy game, you realise that they don'y have a great deal of confidence in each other.

moral rankings... i love it.

Japan... play nice rugby for little guys.... big pluses. Pinches players from all over the pacific... sorry chaps you're down.

Moral world no.1 would probably be Argentina.

All players are Argentinian born and bred, most now are playing purely in Argentina on shoestring budgets. They play cracking rugby and hell they all cry during their anthems.

Two teams both short on confidence and, probably, questioning their coaching team's ability to get the best out of them - all the makings of a classic!

GavinDragon wrote:

fa0019 wrote:

George Carlin wrote:I love the idea that there should be a 'moral' ranking which completely ignores wins and places teams according to their performances and how aggrieved fans feel about their team bombing. Scotland would place top 3 easily. 

Wales have to be targeting a win here. They will never get a better chance to beat a South African side than this. This Boks team is really very inconsistent and if you watch the Italy game, you realise that they don'y have a great deal of confidence in each other.

moral rankings... i love it.

Japan... play nice rugby for little guys.... big pluses. Pinches players from all over the pacific... sorry chaps you're down.

Moral world no.1 would probably be Argentina.

All players are Argentinian born and bred, most now are playing purely in Argentina on shoestring budgets. They play cracking rugby and hell they all cry during their anthems.

Two teams both short on confidence and, probably, questioning their coaching team's ability to get the best out of them - all the makings of a classic!

The rematch of 2014's 12-6 classic right   . Where is Francois Hougaard when you need someone to make a test match look like Sunday league match.. clean your boots Francois, your time is now.

uncle_nigel wrote:

beshocked wrote:

Funnily enough a win vs SA would mean results wise Wales would have done well.

It's a bit of a lose-lose situation then. If we do somehow beat SA then the cronies at the WRU as well as the pink cowboy hat-wearing fans will think we've done well. The reality is no, we've not done well at all and we are lucky that some teams are playing as bad if not worse than us right now. The harsh truth is that we haven't done well for a long time. There was a slight improvement from our first team in NZ but that's gone backwards and it was always going to go that way as soon as the union agreed to hand over the reigns to Gatland's backroom mob.

A win over one of the big three though is still results wise massive.

The record books don't take into account team strength. A win over SA is a win over SA.

I am saying that short term you have to think about staying in the top 8 and even pushing for top 4.

Sometimes it's better to be winning ugly than losing beautifully.

A lot of sides lose games they should win, at least Wales manage to bag some results.

Putting it into perspective - Argentina and SA fans will be much more annoyed than Welsh ones.

Scotland and France will be kicking themselves for missed opportunities vs the Aussies.

I am not saying you should be happy but it could be worse.

Beating the 3N is at times more mental then anything on the pitch. Most teams would be saying... they lost to Italy and you still favour them????
However they still carry an aura with them (albeit its rapidly collapsing).

Funny stat.... SA have played Ireland, Argentina, Australia, Italy, New Zealand and England this season and all 6 have registered wins against them. Can Wales be the only team that falls short? They have to think that regardless of internal woes, they have to be beating this SA side now.

Beshocked I don't think you're wrong in anything that you have typed there, but I still think it's a lose-lose situation. A loss to SA might force our Union to think otherwise and start to take steps which would enable our game to evolve, not just as senior level but every level in Wales. If we win I guess they will be happy and think everything is normal - fact of the matter is we need to evolve. Ireland have, Scotland have, Argentina and Japan have, Italy are trying I guess. If Wales are to carry on this way these teams will surpass us by another 10 years.

As others have pointed out, it's somewhat odd that in terms of results Wales have done OK in these internationals. They've beaten the teams they would have expected to, and lost to Australia who after all then went on to beat Scotland and France. Obviously, scratch beneath the surface and look at performances, and it hasn't been good really. Dreadful against Aus, better against Argentina but lack of clinical finishing and sloppy defence after both tries made it closer than it should have been. Didn't watch the Japan game (was watching the tennis) so can't comment but needing a last minute drop goal to win isn't great. Did Liam Williams start? (saw thread about Cuthbert so wondering). He was electric against Argentina and should really be one of the first names on the team sheet.

SA of course have been even worse. Hammered by England despite the latter not playing particularly well, then beaten by Italy! They looked like a side incapable of reacting to things going wrong in the England game, whether through on-field leadership or coaching. Is Etzebeth back from concussion protocols? That could help...

Overall, an intriguing game.

uncle_nigel wrote:Beshocked I don't think you're wrong in anything that you have typed there, but I still think it's a lose-lose situation. A loss to SA might force our Union to think otherwise and start to take steps which would enable our game to evolve, not just as senior level but every level in Wales. If we win I guess they will be happy and think everything is normal - fact of the matter is we need to evolve. Ireland have, Scotland have, Argentina and Japan have, Italy are trying I guess. If Wales are to carry on this way these teams will surpass us by another 10 years.

Argentina I think yes. Scotland will probably tread water with Wales but I don't expect any significant dominance bar a complete turnaround operations wise but can't see Japan or Italy. If your team is stack loaded with mercenaries (and others inc. all 6N sides are sometimes guilty of this) then your future success will be based upon things like how well can you recruit from abroad.

SA for instance now have rules stating their A side is the baby boks... that takes a shed load of players away from potential selection abroad, many guys like Rory Kockott wouldn't have been able to play for France for example.

fa0019 wrote:Beating the 3N is at times more mental then anything on the pitch. Most teams would be saying... they lost to Italy and you still favour them????
However they still carry an aura with them (albeit its rapidly collapsing).

Funny stat.... SA have played Ireland, Argentina, Australia, Italy, New Zealand and England this season and all 6 have registered wins against them. Can Wales be the only team that falls short? They have to think that regardless of internal woes, they have to be beating this SA side now.

Yes, we always do. What I really can't understand is how those teams who seem to fairly regularly beat the SH teams (England, Ireland, Scotland) can then often struggle against Wales in the 6N? e.g. Scotland have beaten SA and Aus a few times in recent years yet they can't beat a Wales side that gets stuffed by the SH. It doesn't add up!

fa0019 wrote:

uncle_nigel wrote:Beshocked I don't think you're wrong in anything that you have typed there, but I still think it's a lose-lose situation. A loss to SA might force our Union to think otherwise and start to take steps which would enable our game to evolve, not just as senior level but every level in Wales. If we win I guess they will be happy and think everything is normal - fact of the matter is we need to evolve. Ireland have, Scotland have, Argentina and Japan have, Italy are trying I guess. If Wales are to carry on this way these teams will surpass us by another 10 years.

Argentina I think yes. Scotland will probably tread water with Wales but I don't expect any significant dominance bar a complete turnaround operations wise but can't see Japan or Italy. If your team is stack loaded with mercenaries (and others inc. all 6N sides are sometimes guilty of this) then your future success will be based upon things like how well can you recruit from abroad.

SA for instance now have rules stating their A side is the baby boks... that takes a shed load of players away from potential selection abroad, many guys like Rory Kockott wouldn't have been able to play for France for example.  

Oh Christ, SA better prepare for a barrage of abuse from the 606v2 mafia over that one! Wales have their U20s as their A side so caps count and it nearly caused world war 3 on here with posters complaining that players are 'too young to decide which country they're from at that age", etc!

Gooseberry wrote:

George Carlin wrote:

majesticimperialman wrote:This is a genuine question. With Italy beating South Africa. Does this mean they (ITALY) go above Wales in the world rankings?

Those are out of date and dont include the last set of matches, but no Italy get a boost and SA dropped but they didnt swap over. Theres a limit on how many points can be exchanged to stop "outliers" over affecting the rankings.
The rankings now are (stolen from Mrs P in the rankings thread):

1 NEW ZEALAND 94.78
2 ENGLAND        89.84
3 AUSTRALIA 88.13
4 IRELAND        83.46
5 SOUTH AFRICA 82.56
6 WALES        81.77
7 SCOTLAND 80.57
8 FRANCE        80.13
9 ARGENTINA 79.92
10 FIJI        75.49
11 JAPAN        75.20
12 GEORGIA 74.24
13 ITALY        74.16
14 SAMOA        70.91
15 TONGA        69.95


With "home advantage" of + 3 that makes Wales (rankings) favourites for the game. If they win big its actually possivble for them to break into the top 4.

Which just goes to show they arent the only team thats had some dissapointments recently, and that theres a bit of a weakness in the rankings that they reflect wins above performances. The last time they had a real crisis they ended up ranked outside the top 8 for an extended period. This time everyone else is doing them a favour by being rubbish too.

There really is a gap opening up between the top 3 and the rest though, which seems about right. 5-9 certainly look like toss of a coin could beat each other on their day teams at the moment, and the "second tier" Pacifics and Italy able to stick their heads up and give them competitrive games "on their day".



For this match Wales just need players who are going to front up and deliver somewhere close to what they are cpaable of. In some casews they have been reduced to sleecting pretty verage Regional players becuase they are running out of options, thats one thing. But when the big names are looking like wet fish thats something that should be really concerning. It looks like heads have dropepd and they arent showing anything like the passion they did 4 years ago, even in losing causes.
Theres a few slection tweaks (Cuthbert) but for me its really about who turns up and wants to be there.
This is a pretty huge game for both teams. If SA lose and its not a classic of comeptitve quality rugby it sreally is rock bottom for them, and I cant see how their coaching set up can survive. Their extent of their decline is more shocking to me than Wales' is.

Lots of ifs but I think Wales can take this, and suddenly thinsg will look a lot rosier even if it does act as a sticking plaster for a team that looks pretty rotten and bereft of leadership.

Yes Wales can break into top 4 but only if they win by more than 15 pts and Ireland lose by more than 15 pts -
Ireland lose by > 15 score down to 82.21
Ireland lose by 15 or less score down to 82.63
Wales win by >15 score up to 82.94
Wales win by 15 or less score up to 82.55

If South Africa win then they go back to 4th unless Ireland win

Well, that's 3 Cardiff players that should never wear a Welsh shirt again.

Griff it comes down to what fa0019 said.

Mentally Wales perform better vs the 6 nations sides than the tri nations, perhaps the close proximity and rivalry of the 6 nations helps. E.g. much more motivated to get one over the likes of England and Ireland.

Certainly in the RWC, you could see Wales' sheer bloody mindedness vs England. Plus the belief was there. You've beaten England in the 6 nations many times.

The tri nations also prey on any lack of belief, look at the amount of times the Aussies have just about squeaked over the line vs Wales but also this in the last two games vs Scotland and vs France.

Looking at a side like Scotland weirdly enough England and Wales for example are more daunting prospects.

South Africa's aura is being eroded and to be honest the door was probably opened ajar by Japan last year in the RWC.

If Japan could beat SA, if gives hope to every other side.

The Aussies on the other hand still cause problems mentally for other sides. I said before the Wales game, the Aussies weren't as bad as everyone made out and they've won 3 on the bounce, the Aussies haven't been outstanding and might well lose to Ireland and England but so far they've managed to find ways to victory.

Mad for Chelsea wrote:As others have pointed out, it's somewhat odd that in terms of results Wales have done OK in these internationals. They've beaten the teams they would have expected to, and lost to Australia who after all then went on to beat Scotland and France. Obviously, scratch beneath the surface and look at performances, and it hasn't been good really. Dreadful against Aus, better against Argentina but lack of clinical finishing and sloppy defence after both tries made it closer than it should have been. Didn't watch the Japan game (was watching the tennis) so can't comment but needing a last minute drop goal to win isn't great. Did Liam Williams start? (saw thread about Cuthbert so wondering). He was electric against Argentina and should really be one of the first names on the team sheet.

SA of course have been even worse. Hammered by England despite the latter not playing particularly well, then beaten by Italy! They looked like a side incapable of reacting to things going wrong in the England game, whether through on-field leadership or coaching. Is Etzebeth back from concussion protocols? That could help...

Overall, an intriguing game.

Yes Liam Williams started and looked lively, but still made wrong decisions at times. One particular incident, he made a break from full back, had one man in front of him and players outside him. Most players would have just stood up his defender and given the pass, but he took it into contact. Now, maybe he didn't realise there were men outside him, maybe they didn't call, but it is indicative of the general malaise in welsh backplay at present.

Lloyd Williams seemed to want to wait until slow moving forwards were in place before distributing, or kicked poorly. Anscombe took the ball to the line well enough, but there was usually only one running option which the Japanese defence dealt with. Watching from the stadium, you would see the number of times we have a winger or two out on his own in space, but we couldn't work the ball to them in space.

I think the gameplan was to keep it tight and try and bully the smaller Japanese side, and the possession and territory stats show this to have been a success, the team just could not convert that into points and tries because they don't, collectively, have the ability to switch on to what is in front of them and react. Very poor.

Griff wrote:Wales have always struggled against SA, or against any of the Tri Nations for that matter.  Added to that, we always struggle against any team if we're given the favourites tag.  So playing SA and people saying we should win has just got car crash written all over it for me  Not sure I'll be able to watch.

I'm home for the weekend and have tickets so with a 5.30 kick I might well plan not to be in any state to watch it, or certainly not remember it

Rankings have now been updated:
http://www.worldrugby.org/news/206582

Its going to be like 2 bald men fighting over a comb. And dropping it, lots.

That being said, I'll take a 3-0 win.

munkian wrote:Well, that's 3 Cardiff players that should never wear a Welsh shirt again.

Excellent!
The more the merrier.

With Jenkins being touch and go I might go for the following:

Smith
Baldwin
Francis
AWJ
Charteris
Warburton
Tipuric
Moriarty
Davies
Biggar
North
Williams
Davies
Halfpenny
Williams

The replacements as follows: Owens/Dacey, Jenkins, Lee, Hill/Ball, Faletau, Williams (oh dear), Anscombe/Davies, Roberts.

I think we might have a good bench if we put out this team. Howley probably disagrees and will pick Lydiate, Roberts and likely rush Faletau back in. I honestly believe Gareth Jenkins would do a better job with this team!

I would go with

Smith
Owens
Francis
Charteris
Jones
Warburton
Tipuric
Moriarty

Davies
Davies
North
Williams
Davies
Halfpenny
Williams

But I think he will go for Gethin, Baldwin and Samson in front row.

Baldwin looked better last game - he carried well too, just a pity no one was on his shoulder.

So you agree with my selection apart from fly-half and hooker .

There is a good chance that Howley thinks that is the way forward too GavinDragon, but aside from the hobbits (sorry NZ) in Japans front row who have they dominated at the set piece? A combination of Jenkins, Baldwin and Francis dominated Argentina who coming into the match against Wales had the highest rated scrum.

munkian wrote:Baldwin looked better last game - he carried well too, just a pity no one was on his shoulder.

He did really well on the weekend (aside from an overthrow). I've been critical of him in the past, but fair play, he did carry well.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:

munkian wrote:Baldwin looked better last game - he carried well too, just a pity no one was on his shoulder.

He did really well on the weekend (aside from an overthrow). I've been critical of him in the past, but fair play, he did carry well.

Baldwin showed up because he was constantly standing at first reciever. If Wales want to play a more expansive gave they need their playmaker at first reciever not a front row forward. I would start Smith and Samson because they are strong scrummagers and despite this being one of Baldwins strengths I would start Owens as he tends to be livelier around the park.

Seagultaf wrote:

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:

munkian wrote:Baldwin looked better last game - he carried well too, just a pity no one was on his shoulder.

He did really well on the weekend (aside from an overthrow). I've been critical of him in the past, but fair play, he did carry well.

Baldwin showed up because he was constantly standing at first reciever. If Wales want to play a more expansive gave they need their playmaker at first reciever not a front row forward. I would start Smith and Samson because they are strong scrummagers and despite this being one of Baldwins strengths I would start Owens as he tends to be livelier around the park.

Smith, Baldwin and Francis for me. Regarding the bit in bold - I've watched Scarlets this season and I don't think this is true. I also think his lineout throwing has been worse than Baldwin and even that of Kris Dacey. Owens was one of the lucky ones when he was called up.

Seagultaf wrote:

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:

munkian wrote:Baldwin looked better last game - he carried well too, just a pity no one was on his shoulder.

He did really well on the weekend (aside from an overthrow). I've been critical of him in the past, but fair play, he did carry well.

Baldwin showed up because he was constantly standing at first reciever. If Wales want to play a more expansive gave they need their playmaker at first reciever not a front row forward. I would start Smith and Samson because they are strong scrummagers and despite this being one of Baldwins strengths I would start Owens as he tends to be livelier around the park.

That's true, but a similar effect can also be achieved with forwards carrying the ball, but offloading before they go to ground. Baldwin should be capable of that, if coached.

Atm, we have either multiple rucks, with the forwards taking it up and immediately going to ground near the same spot (i.e. a strategy of holding the ball on the ground but changing the bloke at the bottom with each phase) Or we give it to the backs to run sideways in order to do the same thing.

Either way, the scrum half's job is mainly concerned with efficient pointing, (this must be their main activity in training, don't you think - effective pointing technique?)

I'd suggest we get our forwards to offload at contact, like the Pumas do on a good day, and have our backs running inside lines, getting on the outside of the defence, using dummy runners etc.

I know. It's crazy talk.

rumpelstiltskindoh wrote:

Seagultaf wrote:

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:

munkian wrote:Baldwin looked better last game - he carried well too, just a pity no one was on his shoulder.

He did really well on the weekend (aside from an overthrow). I've been critical of him in the past, but fair play, he did carry well.

Baldwin showed up because he was constantly standing at first reciever. If Wales want to play a more expansive gave they need their playmaker at first reciever not a front row forward. I would start Smith and Samson because they are strong scrummagers and despite this being one of Baldwins strengths I would start Owens as he tends to be livelier around the park.

That's true, but a similar effect can also be achieved with forwards carrying the ball, but offloading before they go to ground. Baldwin should be capable of that, if coached.

Atm, we have either multiple rucks, with the forwards taking it up and immediately going to ground near the same spot (i.e. a strategy of holding the ball on the ground but changing the bloke at the bottom with each phase) Or we give it to the backs to run sideways in order to do the same thing.

Either way, the scrum half's job is mainly concerned with efficient pointing, (this must be their main activity in training, don't you think - effective pointing technique?)

I'd suggest we get our forwards to offload at contact, like the Pumas do on a good day, and have our backs running inside lines, getting on the outside of the defence, using dummy runners etc.

I know. It's crazy talk.

I agree. Alot of team's have their forwards at first receiver(s) and their playmaker sweeping behing them to take the ball wide.

Some reports indicate that Faletau is back in the match day squad for SA. Howley will want to start him at 8 I guess but for me he should be on the bench with Moriarty starting at 8.

Simon Thomas seems to think it will be the same starting line up as v Argentina.

So

Jenkins, Owens, Francis, Long Dog, AWJ, Warburton, Tipuric, Moriarty, Davies, Biggar, Williams, Williams (Sc), Davies, North, Halfpenny.

I would then guess the bench will be

Smith, Baldwin, Lee, Hill, Faletau, Williams, Davies/Anscombe and Roberts.

Edit,

He suggests the bench have Sam Davies on and not Anscombe, but the rest as I think.

We'll really be up against it with just two back-row players starting.

Hey. If Wales lose this and Scotland win against Georgia, we could send up swapping places in the rankings.

uncle_nigel wrote:We'll really be up against it with just two back-row players starting.

Quite right. You're an absolute Saint for pointing out my silly mistake.

George Carlin wrote:Hey. If Wales lose this and Scotland win against Georgia, we could send up swapping places in the rankings.

Save it for when you beat us in the 6 Nations,