The EU Referendum - Thursday 23 June (with voting poll)

First topic message reminder :

Now it is official (and some guy with a green admin name has ruined the other thread) I shall put this here for you to discuss the referendum.

Not quite how it will work Duty, the Tories did better than expected because nobody likes to admit to being a Tory voter, the same cannot be said of Leave voters.

Duty281 wrote:

TopHat24/7 wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

TopHat24/7 wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Poll of polls carries "online" polling...

I haven't seen Ed Miliband standing outside number Ten recently...

Liam Fox ??......That's another 2% going to Remain right there before he opens his mouth...

Is he bringing his male friend with him ??

Online polling is slightly overstated to Leave; Phone polling is slightly overstated to Remain.

It's a great balance.

Except it isn't because phone polling (despite over-sampling Labour) tends to be a more accurate barometer of polling actions as you strip out the keyboard warrior element.

Next?

What is this keyboard warrior element you keep referring to?

People sign up to polling companies (such as YouGov), then when a survey comes around, they want a certain number of each demographic to fill out the requisite numbers for aforementioned survey.

I'm signed up to YouGov, and I get an e-mail when they want a survey filled out. If I'm too late, and they already have enough respondents from my demographic, I won't get a chance to answer. (Some of the surveys are very odd, just the other day I was asked how I thought Postman Pat and Del Boy would vote in the referendum!).

It's not like someone hosting a public poll on the Telegraph newspaper website, and a stampede of Leavers click the Leave box until the mouse breaks.

I'm also a YouGov member.

That's not how telephone polling works though.

It's all about behavioural sciences. Basically people are more likely to be opinonated (in a controversial or against the grain away) when they can hide their opinion behind an anonymous click on a computer screen.  The liklihood of that opinion being sustained when asked by another human being over the phone is reduced (shame/lack of conviction factor) and further reduced when asked in person or when voters are faced with the reality of their vote slip.

It's a large part of why, despite all the hoopla, Tories smashed the polls in GE15 - when it came down to it, no matter how easy it was to bash the gov't, more people got to the booth and said, "you know what, I'm actually better off now than I was a few years ago and see tht continuing under the Tories most likely". So that's how the voting went, but people were too ashamed to admit it to pollsters in advance.

Makes no logical sense whatsoever.

You say people are more likely to be opinionated when they select their choice anonymously - so exactly like when they're in the voting booth?! Fair enough, they may be shy when talking to a person, but you don't talk to someone when you cast your vote on the day.

The Tories did better than the polls anticipated simply because their voters turned out in a far greater number than Labour ones. And Leave will do better than what the polls anticipate because their voters will turn out in a far greater number than Remain.

Wrong. There is no evidence it was to do with turnout levels.

TopHat24/7 wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

TopHat24/7 wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

TopHat24/7 wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Poll of polls carries "online" polling...

I haven't seen Ed Miliband standing outside number Ten recently...

Liam Fox ??......That's another 2% going to Remain right there before he opens his mouth...

Is he bringing his male friend with him ??

Online polling is slightly overstated to Leave; Phone polling is slightly overstated to Remain.

It's a great balance.

Except it isn't because phone polling (despite over-sampling Labour) tends to be a more accurate barometer of polling actions as you strip out the keyboard warrior element.

Next?

What is this keyboard warrior element you keep referring to?

People sign up to polling companies (such as YouGov), then when a survey comes around, they want a certain number of each demographic to fill out the requisite numbers for aforementioned survey.

I'm signed up to YouGov, and I get an e-mail when they want a survey filled out. If I'm too late, and they already have enough respondents from my demographic, I won't get a chance to answer. (Some of the surveys are very odd, just the other day I was asked how I thought Postman Pat and Del Boy would vote in the referendum!).

It's not like someone hosting a public poll on the Telegraph newspaper website, and a stampede of Leavers click the Leave box until the mouse breaks.

I'm also a YouGov member.

That's not how telephone polling works though.

It's all about behavioural sciences. Basically people are more likely to be opinonated (in a controversial or against the grain away) when they can hide their opinion behind an anonymous click on a computer screen.  The liklihood of that opinion being sustained when asked by another human being over the phone is reduced (shame/lack of conviction factor) and further reduced when asked in person or when voters are faced with the reality of their vote slip.

It's a large part of why, despite all the hoopla, Tories smashed the polls in GE15 - when it came down to it, no matter how easy it was to bash the gov't, more people got to the booth and said, "you know what, I'm actually better off now than I was a few years ago and see tht continuing under the Tories most likely". So that's how the voting went, but people were too ashamed to admit it to pollsters in advance.

Makes no logical sense whatsoever.

You say people are more likely to be opinionated when they select their choice anonymously - so exactly like when they're in the voting booth?! Fair enough, they may be shy when talking to a person, but you don't talk to someone when you cast your vote on the day.

The Tories did better than the polls anticipated simply because their voters turned out in a far greater number than Labour ones. And Leave will do better than what the polls anticipate because their voters will turn out in a far greater number than Remain.

Wrong. There is no evidence it was to do with turnout levels.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/22/election-2015-who-voted-for-whom-labour-conservatives-turnout

Duty281 wrote:

TopHat24/7 wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

TopHat24/7 wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

TopHat24/7 wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Poll of polls carries "online" polling...

I haven't seen Ed Miliband standing outside number Ten recently...

Liam Fox ??......That's another 2% going to Remain right there before he opens his mouth...

Is he bringing his male friend with him ??

Online polling is slightly overstated to Leave; Phone polling is slightly overstated to Remain.

It's a great balance.

Except it isn't because phone polling (despite over-sampling Labour) tends to be a more accurate barometer of polling actions as you strip out the keyboard warrior element.

Next?

What is this keyboard warrior element you keep referring to?

People sign up to polling companies (such as YouGov), then when a survey comes around, they want a certain number of each demographic to fill out the requisite numbers for aforementioned survey.

I'm signed up to YouGov, and I get an e-mail when they want a survey filled out. If I'm too late, and they already have enough respondents from my demographic, I won't get a chance to answer. (Some of the surveys are very odd, just the other day I was asked how I thought Postman Pat and Del Boy would vote in the referendum!).

It's not like someone hosting a public poll on the Telegraph newspaper website, and a stampede of Leavers click the Leave box until the mouse breaks.

I'm also a YouGov member.

That's not how telephone polling works though.

It's all about behavioural sciences. Basically people are more likely to be opinonated (in a controversial or against the grain away) when they can hide their opinion behind an anonymous click on a computer screen.  The liklihood of that opinion being sustained when asked by another human being over the phone is reduced (shame/lack of conviction factor) and further reduced when asked in person or when voters are faced with the reality of their vote slip.

It's a large part of why, despite all the hoopla, Tories smashed the polls in GE15 - when it came down to it, no matter how easy it was to bash the gov't, more people got to the booth and said, "you know what, I'm actually better off now than I was a few years ago and see tht continuing under the Tories most likely". So that's how the voting went, but people were too ashamed to admit it to pollsters in advance.

Makes no logical sense whatsoever.

You say people are more likely to be opinionated when they select their choice anonymously - so exactly like when they're in the voting booth?! Fair enough, they may be shy when talking to a person, but you don't talk to someone when you cast your vote on the day.

The Tories did better than the polls anticipated simply because their voters turned out in a far greater number than Labour ones. And Leave will do better than what the polls anticipate because their voters will turn out in a far greater number than Remain.

Wrong. There is no evidence it was to do with turnout levels.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/22/election-2015-who-voted-for-whom-labour-conservatives-turnout

Which is not why the polling was so far wrong or why your cherished 'LEAVE' campaign will perform a Tory-esque poll turnaround.

Well don't worry, old chap, we've still got three weeks and six days till polling day.

Leave are only half a length back as we turn into the home straight.

The nations, not so blest as thee,
Must, in their turns, to tyrants fall;
While thou shalt flourish great and free,
The dread and envy of them all.

Duty281 wrote:Well don't worry, old chap, we've still got three weeks and six days till polling day.

Leave are only half a length back as we turn into the home straight.

The nations, not so blest as thee,
Must, in their turns, to tyrants fall;
While thou shalt flourish great and free,
The dread and envy of them all.

Brings a tear to my eye, that.

Pr4wn wrote:

Duty281 wrote:Well don't worry, old chap, we've still got three weeks and six days till polling day.

Leave are only half a length back as we turn into the home straight.

The nations, not so blest as thee,
Must, in their turns, to tyrants fall;
While thou shalt flourish great and free,
The dread and envy of them all.

Brings a tear to my eye, that.

As indeed it should.

Duty281 wrote:(Some of the surveys are very odd, just the other day I was asked how I thought Postman Pat and Del Boy would vote in the referendum!).

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/737258576264241152

We have the results from this crucial survey.

One has to laugh: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36411509
I think like the alternate vote referendum in which there was a huge government spin the EU referendum will result in a significant vote to remain.  

It is a case of demographics plus the overwhelming number of scare stories from across the political spectrum from right wing capitalists to looney left-wing sociologist Camerons threats of WWIII, Osbornes threats of economic Armageddon, Left wingers claim that only racists and islamophobes want to leave, plus Obama saying the UK will be at the back of the queue, plus the IMF & WTO also prophesising doom, plus numerous celebrities saying we should all remain ... it will persuade undeciders to vote on the "safe side" just in case some of the scare stories are true.

In one scenario, the referendum is significantly for the remain, the tory party split asunder and Jeremy Corbyn wins the next election. Then all we need is a Trump victory in the US and all hell will break loose.

Nore Staat wrote: Jeremy Corbyn wins the next election.  Then all we need is a Trump victory in the US and all hell will break loose.

Ahhhhhhh! Back to the good old days - the comfort of worrying only about a few mad world leaders and briefcases with large red buttons.

Get your shades people! We may need 'em.

Tis' a fine day.

EU referendum poll:
Remain: 44% (-1)
Leave: 47% (+2)
(via ICM, online)

EU referendum poll:
Remain: 42% (-5)
Leave: 45% (+6)
(via ICM, phone)

Duty281 wrote:I imagine that the Leave side will start churning out a consistent lead in the polls by the end of this month, and will be able to hold on to it till the end.

Three out of the last four polls have gone to Leave. The one that didn't (ORB phone) showed the Remain lead dropping from 13 points to just 5.

Last poll I saw was neck & neck (ICM) on the 24th.

Still very easy to be billy big balls when clicking on a computer screen.

Will see where were are in a few weeks, still feels like Scots ref to me. Albeit closer earlier.

Went to Batley Vintage day at the weekend. Lovely stuff. Kinda Old Time Music Hall stuff with a flyover from a Spitfire and a rousing rendition of "Rule Britannia" followed by a bit of "We'll Meet Again"

If that doesn't make me vote "Leave" then nowt will

TopHat24/7 wrote:Last poll I saw was neck & neck (ICM) on the 24th.

Still very easy to be billy big balls when clicking on a computer screen.

Will see where were are in a few weeks, still feels like Scots ref to me.  Albeit closer earlier.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/with_replies
http://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/should-the-united-kingdom-remain-a-member-of-the-eu-or-leave-the-eu/

These two places update the polling frequently.

From the Beeb:

Ipsos Mori's latest poll gave remain a 55-37 lead, with 8% saying they were undecided or wouldn't vote. That's the biggest gap between the two sides we've seen since February.
On the other hand, ICM's online poll showed a 47-43 lead for leave, with 10% saying don't know, a small shift away from remain.
Bookies vs Pollsters
Some observers argue that betting odds provide a better clue to the outcome of elections and referendums than opinion polls.
At last year's general election, for example, the bookmakers' odds suggested that the Conservatives would do better than the polls indicated. And they did.
If that's true then Remain looks the most likely result.
The referendum is expected to be the biggest ever political betting event in the UK. Millions of pounds have already been gambled on the outcome.
Last week several bookmakers cut their odds for a vote to remain to 1/6. That means people would have to risk £6 for a potential profit of £1.
Ladbrokes reported that there were lots of people prepared to back Remain despite the short odds.
Most bookmakers have the odds for leave at 7/2. A £2 stake would return a profit of £7.
Perhaps an easier way to track the bookmakers' odds over time is to look at what they imply about the chances are of each side winning. If both sides were at evens they'd both have an implied probability of 50%.
On the Betfair betting exchange, the probability they suggest of a remain vote has risen from about 65% a month ago to nearly 80% now.

Hero wrote:From the Beeb:

Ipsos Mori's latest poll gave remain a 55-37 lead, with 8% saying they were undecided or wouldn't vote. That's the biggest gap between the two sides we've seen since February.
On the other hand, ICM's online poll showed a 47-43 lead for leave, with 10% saying don't know, a small shift away from remain.
Bookies vs Pollsters
Some observers argue that betting odds provide a better clue to the outcome of elections and referendums than opinion polls.
At last year's general election, for example, the bookmakers' odds suggested that the Conservatives would do better than the polls indicated. And they did.
If that's true then Remain looks the most likely result.
The referendum is expected to be the biggest ever political betting event in the UK. Millions of pounds have already been gambled on the outcome.
Last week several bookmakers cut their odds for a vote to remain to 1/6. That means people would have to risk £6 for a potential profit of £1.
Ladbrokes reported that there were lots of people prepared to back Remain despite the short odds.
Most bookmakers have the odds for leave at 7/2. A £2 stake would return a profit of £7.
Perhaps an easier way to track the bookmakers' odds over time is to look at what they imply about the chances are of each side winning. If both sides were at evens they'd both have an implied probability of 50%.
On the Betfair betting exchange, the probability they suggest of a remain vote has risen from about 65% a month ago to nearly 80% now.

Little bit outdated. Ipsos Mori haven't released any polls for two weeks now, the last one being that 55-37 score. ICM have released two polls since the 47-43 for Leave (the two I posted earlier).

In terms of betting, Remain is now down to 2/7 in most places, with Leave at 11/4. Betfair's exchange did peak at 81% for Remain, but is now on its way down (74%, I believe).

Poll of polls is 51-49 in favour of Remain. With a 60-65% turnout expected, YouGov thinks that Leave are slightly in front once you take into account the various variables.

https://yougov.co.uk/turnout-o-meter/?turnout=65&overallremaing=2&agefactor=1&classfactor=1

Latest immigration figures will have harmed Remain, not that they should be the focus, but they're great for neanderthal baiting.

Don't forget that in almost every poll there tends to be a last minute shift towards incumbency..

It's the reason Cameron needed a coalition.....The reason Cameron got a majority last time....Romney was ahead in the polls the day before he lost to Obama......

BUSH v Kerry...
FORD v Carter.....Carter at one stage was 10 points ahead....
CARTER v Reagan
TRUMAN v Dewey...
LBJ v Goldwater....

The policy of.... Better the devil you know...

Don't believe that Leave is ahead for one minute....But if they are...They'll need a decent sized lead going in..

Duty281 wrote:Tis' a fine day.

EU referendum poll:
Remain: 44% (-1)
Leave: 47% (+2)
(via ICM, online)

EU referendum poll:
Remain: 42% (-5)
Leave: 45% (+6)
(via ICM, phone)

Duty, I wouldn't get too excited. In the world of quantitative research (I get my minions to do a shed load of it) it's a fairly commonly known issue that getting any confidence in results over a bank holiday is fairly troublesome. ORB showed a 51-46 split in favour of remain, down from the previous poll though granted.

Care to answer the following as well? Without using any make believe assumptions?

The £ fell sharply following the ICM poll announcement yesterday. It's a fairly common and undebatable view that in the event of EU exit the £ would crash as investors pull out. The £ plummeting will drive inflation to hyper-inflation levels, crippling the poor and sending the economy in to a deep recession as spending across all sectors falls off the cliff.

With no guarantee we would ever recover from a recession that makes the late 00s look like a mere blip.

In light of the above, can you please copy and paste and independant report from an organisation such as the IMF, WTO etc who have come up with a forecast of what would happen in the case of EU exit? And please note the following words, I've even explained them for you:

Independant | Organisation: Not affiliated to either remain or leave.

Forecast: A scenario based on statistical forecasting

Look forwards to your factually based reply. Or lack of.

I don't think it is clear cut that EU exit will lead to 'investors pulling out' in droves. It will just alter the current macro-economic environment for a while. Investors will adjust.

HQ relocations of international corporates are more of an issue.

Also think hyperinflation is scare mongering akin to Leave's foreigner blaming bigotry.

Am not so confident Toppy. As you've said yourself, relocation is one of the big issues we'd potentially face in the event of EU exit. The knock on reaction would be that investors pull the plug and the pound collapses even further.

A weakened pound/one that collapses in a doomsday scenario would plunge us in to a world of hyperinflation. The market is extremely sensitive to any announcement at present and the £ is fluctuating fairly significantly, any leave campaigner who suggests that investors will simply keep their money here is plain and utterly simply off their complete and utter rocker. The proof is in the pudding, the £ lost significant value yesterday with the ICM poll being released - it dropped almost 1% which is a fairly big drop for a one off poll (from a calendar perspective).

No sane investor would view the £ as anything other than a infinite risk and will be quick to get out. This won't be like the recession of 08-12, this could be a monumental wipe out of the value of £. The only saving grace is that we'd be so up to our neck in recession that there won't be a demand pull or aggregate demand inflation scenario.

Please expand on what you mean by/what you consider entails "investors pulling the plug"?

A weakened pound will not cause hyperinflation.

Everyone is missing the point.

EU Exit (why is 'B-r-e-x-i-t' modified???) - EU Exit is actually more about what happens to Europe if the UK leaves rather than what will happen to the UK.

This is why the fight to hold onto the UK is so wordy and so many 'qualified thinkers' around the world have been coaxed to add their ten cents/pennies

Europe doesn't care a damn what happens to the UK outside the EU - but it does care that the UK outside the EU offers an experiment in a new way that is there to be viewed by all.  No need for self-important historians of commerce or politics to do a speculation job on it - the living example of a Nation that pulled back from closer EU union will be there for the world to observe.

The EU addicts are terrified of that prospect as they know there are other peoples all through Europe that want a direct Referendum question put to them on the real deal that is never mentioned but always in development: "Do you want a United States of Europe, with one President, one flag, one anthem, one official stance on all the world's issues?"

TopHat24/7 wrote:Please expand on what you mean by/what you consider entails "investors pulling the plug"?

A weakened pound will not cause hyperinflation.

"investors pulling the plug"

Investors hold £ assets. They sell those assets as the risk of holding on to them in times of massive uncertaintity will be so great that not many sane investors will hold on to said assets. Investors sell £ = Weak £.

Won't cause hyperinflation (which may have been me going over the top slightly!) but we will see levels of inflation that would cripple demand. Reasons, in a nutshell:

• The cost of importing when the £ is weak rises. Increased import prices = higher retail prices as the buck is passed down the line to the consumer.

• The economy will be flooded with £ due to said investors letting their assets go before the lose a shed load of value. The value of the £ drops off a cliff, it's called a supply shock and in the event of a EU exit in the early hours of June 24th I will bet every single penny I have that the £ will crash as investors dump all £ assets they can liquidate as quickly as possible.

To suggest investors will hold on to assets in the event of a EU exit is fanciful, at worst insane. Again, the only saving grace that will probably keep us from high levels of inflation is that there won't be any agg-demand or demand pull as we'll be so far in to a recession Duty and the fellow leave voters will have sold themselves as rent boys in order to make ends meet.

Coxy001 wrote:

TopHat24/7 wrote:Please expand on what you mean by/what you consider entails "investors pulling the plug"?

A weakened pound will not cause hyperinflation.

"investors pulling the plug"

Investors hold £ assets. They sell those assets as the risk of holding on to them in times of massive uncertaintity will be so great that not many sane investors will hold on to said assets. Investors sell £ = Weak £.

Won't cause hyperinflation (which may have been me going over the top slightly!) but we will see levels of inflation that would cripple demand. Reasons, in a nutshell:

• The cost of importing when the £ is weak rises. Increased import prices = higher retail prices as the buck is passed down the line to the consumer.
  

• The economy will be flooded with £ due to said investors letting their assets go before the lose a shed load of value. The value of the £ drops off a cliff, it's called a supply shock and in the event of a EU exit in the early hours of June 24th I will bet every single penny I have that the £ will crash as investors dump all £ assets they can liquidate as quickly as possible.
  

To suggest investors will hold on to assets in the event of a EU exit is fanciful, at worst insane. Again, the only saving grace that will probably keep us from high levels of inflation is that there won't be any agg-demand or demand pull as we'll be so far in to a recession Duty and the fellow leave voters will have sold themselves as rent boys in order to make ends meet.

What 'assets'? Feels like you're hiding behind non-specific jargon.

And the value of the pound would have to absolutely tank for the above to happen with any significance. I just don't see it.

Saw a presentation by Toscafund's CIO and Chief Economist Dr Savvas Savouri which was a lot more educated & intelligent sounding that your limited reasoning (no disrespect, it is his job and he's a lot older & more experienced than either of us) and, whilst it wasn't enough to sway me to LEAVE, it certainly highlighted how much scare-mongering there is going on ref the economic reality of EU exit and gross underestimation of the strength & resilience of the UK.

TopHat24/7 wrote:

Coxy001 wrote:

TopHat24/7 wrote:Please expand on what you mean by/what you consider entails "investors pulling the plug"?

A weakened pound will not cause hyperinflation.

"investors pulling the plug"

Investors hold £ assets. They sell those assets as the risk of holding on to them in times of massive uncertaintity will be so great that not many sane investors will hold on to said assets. Investors sell £ = Weak £.

Won't cause hyperinflation (which may have been me going over the top slightly!) but we will see levels of inflation that would cripple demand. Reasons, in a nutshell:

• The cost of importing when the £ is weak rises. Increased import prices = higher retail prices as the buck is passed down the line to the consumer.
  

• The economy will be flooded with £ due to said investors letting their assets go before the lose a shed load of value. The value of the £ drops off a cliff, it's called a supply shock and in the event of a EU exit in the early hours of June 24th I will bet every single penny I have that the £ will crash as investors dump all £ assets they can liquidate as quickly as possible.
  

To suggest investors will hold on to assets in the event of a EU exit is fanciful, at worst insane. Again, the only saving grace that will probably keep us from high levels of inflation is that there won't be any agg-demand or demand pull as we'll be so far in to a recession Duty and the fellow leave voters will have sold themselves as rent boys in order to make ends meet.

What 'assets'? Feels like you're hiding behind non-specific jargon.

And the value of the pound would have to absolutely tank for the above to happen with any significance.  I just don't see it.

Saw a presentation by Toscafund's CIO and Chief Economist Dr Savvas Savouri which was a lot more educated & intelligent sounding that your limited reasoning (no disrespect, it is his job and he's a lot older & more experienced than either of us) and, whilst it wasn't enough to sway me to LEAVE, it certainly highlighted how much scare-mongering there is going on ref the economic reality of EU exit and gross underestimation of the strength & resilience of the UK.

Shares
Bonds
Property

Or anything else that can be liquidated and releases cash in to the economy - hence the term "supply shock".

Haven't seen the presentation but if I'll be sure to take a look if I get a bit of time later.

Whilst I'm 50-50 on the long term benefits I don't really fancy spending 15-20 years of my life feeling the rather large effects of a EU exit. There are still way too many assumption based arguments - namely we will be able to freely trade with the rest of the EU without paying anything for it either in a spend or freedom of movement sense.

As you've mentioned the potential landgrab of say the finance sector would mean we'd have a rough 17% GDP hole to plug... In the event of EU exit I'm still looking down a certain barrel that ends up with Frankfurt or Dublin smashing and grabbing said sector. Other sectors could be upended - the French go out and build factories and invite VW to move there as they're paying tarriffs to move goods to mainland Europe etc.

Not sure how I'm meant to view us as resilient where I can see obvious scenarios where current EU countries simply attempt to landgrab big manufacturers, financial services and so forth. Such a case would reduce the economy to rubble and to a point it will never, ever recover to the 'size' it is now. It is a massive "IF" to suggest to yours truly that such a scenario won't happen, that the EU will simply let us have access for free without freedom of movement either.

Resilient or not, if the financial sector went walkies abroad we would be totally and utterly f*cked. Corbyn would have the empty skyscrapers in the city to stick his 500,000 refugees he would welcome with open arms after the Tories take the hit for being the biggest bunch of make-believe-t0ssers in the run up to the referendum and get annhilated in the 2020 GE...

Of shares, bonds and property only the latter I can speak from an informed position on. And there is no expectation of stock being 'dumped' on the market post-EU exit. Not commercial and not residential (whose problems are more likely to come from the Far East and unconnected to EU exit). What could actually happen is that pension funds in particular, faced with a general pricing adjustment in valuation levels, will find their allocations to property 'light' unless this is more than outweighed by falls in the values of their equities investments.

Bond prices tend to move the opposite way to property, therefore bonds (you're unspecific as to whether you mean gilts or corp issuances) are unlikely to be 'dumped' either.

Our finance sector would be hurt, particularly if the EU gets away with banning Euro deominated trading in non-EU countries. But that's not the sole reason UKFS is so strong and located where it is.

TopHat24/7 wrote:Of shares, bonds and property only the latter I can speak from an informed position on.  And there is no expectation of stock being 'dumped' on the market post-EU exit.

Then why did the £ lose 1% of its value in a few hours after the recent ICM poll? This wasn't the government printing more money, this was investors simply "dumping" assets - I'm completely and utterly baffled as to why you think any investor would hold on to assets in the event of a EU exit. And I'm even more baffled how you either can't grasp what "Investor and assets" means or I'm just beyond confused..?!

"Markets don't like uncertainty" ergo "stock won't be kept hold of". Unless of course it's massively certain we will all be fine in the case of EU exit, a forecasted scenario that is still residing in la-la-pass-me-the-magic-mushrooms-land at present.

Latter = property. And I can tell you - neither the resi nor commercial markets are expecting a stock dump in the event of EU exit, though price corrections are not to be unexpected.

Coxy001 wrote:

Duty281 wrote:Tis' a fine day.

EU referendum poll:
Remain: 44% (-1)
Leave: 47% (+2)
(via ICM, online)

EU referendum poll:
Remain: 42% (-5)
Leave: 45% (+6)
(via ICM, phone)

Duty, I wouldn't get too excited. In the world of quantitative research (I get my minions to do a shed load of it) it's a fairly commonly known issue that getting any confidence in results over a bank holiday is fairly troublesome. ORB showed a 51-46 split in favour of remain, down from the previous poll though granted.

Care to answer the following as well? Without using any make believe assumptions?

The £ fell sharply following the ICM poll announcement yesterday. It's a fairly common and undebatable view that in the event of EU exit the £ would crash as investors pull out. The £ plummeting will drive inflation to hyper-inflation levels, crippling the poor and sending the economy in to a deep recession as spending across all sectors falls off the cliff.

With no guarantee we would ever recover from a recession that makes the late 00s look like a mere blip.

In light of the above, can you please copy and paste and independant report from an organisation such as the IMF, WTO etc who have come up with a forecast of what would happen in the case of EU exit? And please note the following words, I've even explained them for you:

Independant | Organisation: Not affiliated to either remain or leave.

Forecast: A scenario based on statistical forecasting

Look forwards to your factually based reply. Or lack of.

Will OpenEurope suffice? They think, realistically, that we will be somewhere between 0.8% worse off or 0.6% better off in terms of GDP by 2030. Which I would agree with - we'll either be slightly worse off, or slightly better off, no great earthquake.

41%-41% overall on the latest YouGov poll.

http://2ihmoy1d3v7630ar9h2rsglp.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/150507-Open-Europe-What-If-Report-Final-Digital-Copy.pdf

Seems fair:

Open Europe Today is the go-to source for real-time analysis on breaking European affairs, delivered by Our Experts as they unfold. We are a non-partisan and independent policy think tank, committed to crafting and putting into action solutions to the European Union’s most pressing challenges. Open Europe will remain neutral in the EU Referendum campaign, confining ourselves to commenting as accurately as we can on the arguments and facts advanced on both sides of the debate.

It will cost us 56 billion a year?

Duty281 wrote:

Coxy001 wrote:

Duty281 wrote:Tis' a fine day.

EU referendum poll:
Remain: 44% (-1)
Leave: 47% (+2)
(via ICM, online)

EU referendum poll:
Remain: 42% (-5)
Leave: 45% (+6)
(via ICM, phone)

Duty, I wouldn't get too excited. In the world of quantitative research (I get my minions to do a shed load of it) it's a fairly commonly known issue that getting any confidence in results over a bank holiday is fairly troublesome. ORB showed a 51-46 split in favour of remain, down from the previous poll though granted.

Care to answer the following as well? Without using any make believe assumptions?

The £ fell sharply following the ICM poll announcement yesterday. It's a fairly common and undebatable view that in the event of EU exit the £ would crash as investors pull out. The £ plummeting will drive inflation to hyper-inflation levels, crippling the poor and sending the economy in to a deep recession as spending across all sectors falls off the cliff.

With no guarantee we would ever recover from a recession that makes the late 00s look like a mere blip.

In light of the above, can you please copy and paste and independant report from an organisation such as the IMF, WTO etc who have come up with a forecast of what would happen in the case of EU exit? And please note the following words, I've even explained them for you:

Independant | Organisation: Not affiliated to either remain or leave.

Forecast: A scenario based on statistical forecasting

Look forwards to your factually based reply. Or lack of.

Will OpenEurope suffice? They think, realistically, that we will be somewhere between 0.8% worse off or 0.6% better off in terms of GDP by 2030. Which I would agree with - we'll either be slightly worse off, or slightly better off, no great earthquake.

41%-41% overall on the latest YouGov poll.

http://2ihmoy1d3v7630ar9h2rsglp.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/150507-Open-Europe-What-If-Report-Final-Digital-Copy.pdf

So we "could" be 0.8% worse off than now then eh in 2030? Well blow me down you just don't get it do you?!??

https://knoema.com/tbocwag/gdp-by-country-1980-2015?subject=U.S.%20dollars&country=United%20Kingdom

See how GDP "grows" - Saying we'd be better/worse off in 2030 than now is one of the biggest jokes I've heard, so thanks for making me laugh. In REAL terms we'd be absolutely miles worse off taking in to account GDP growth.

Don't you just wish people would stop talking Poopie about the Eu?

Latest garbage is we risk mass sex attacks if we don't choose to leave apparently.

Hero wrote:

Exactly why Leave will win. The most likely groups to turn out in great numbers are in favour of Leaving.

And another poll has shown a swing towards Leave though, rather confusingly, Opinium changed the methodology of said poll:

New methodology:
Remain: 43%
Leave: 41%

Old methodology:
Remain: 40%
Leave: 43%

Makes it a 50-50 race - http://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/poll-of-polls/

Ent wrote:Don't you just wish people would stop talking Poopie about the Eu?

Latest garbage is we risk mass sex attacks if we don't choose to leave apparently.

Because such a thing hasn't happened in Germany, right?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Year%27s_Eve_sexual_assaults_in_Germany
https://youtu.be/x-YDCmoAnBg?t=1m18s

Hero wrote:

That's about the level 'Remain' is at.

I wouldn't try putting that Mock Voting Card into any real booths.

The mockers might be mocked by the result.

Or............. the other scenario might be:
- the Eurovision Song Contest addicts vote top one
- xenophobe racists the bottom
- and transgender, socially driven, college-bred, multi-culturist tree huggers vote for both so that they don't offend any humanbeings or cuddly animals.

Not sure if anyone saw John Major on Andrew Marr this morning. Completely tore Boris a new one.

Duty281 wrote:Makes it a 50-50 race - http://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/poll-of-polls/

Though there is, apparently, going to be another poll released tomorrow which will show Leave in the lead.

If true, it will be enough to push Leave into an overall lead with just two and a bit weeks to go.

Odds on Leave are now 12/5, from 4/1 just six days ago. Betfair now predict Leave to have a 28% of winning, up from 19% just six days ago.

Given you lot a poll

Duty281 wrote:

Duty281 wrote:Makes it a 50-50 race - http://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/poll-of-polls/

Though there is, apparently, going to be another poll released tomorrow which will show Leave in the lead.

There were two, in actual fact. But one is quite outdated. This is the relevant one:

EU referendum poll:
Remain: 41% (-)
Leave: 45% (+4)
(via YouGov)
Chgs. from 30 - 31 May.

navyblueshorts wrote:

Duty281 wrote:It's 53-47 for Remain in the poll of polls; accounting for turnout that means Remain are a whisker ahead.

And starting tonight is the first television debate - Liam Fox and Diane James against Alex Salmond and Alan Johnson.

The television debates, and there are many, are excellent opportunities for the Leave side. They have the stronger arguments, and millions of people will be watching.

Oooo, be still my aching sides.

http://www.fabians.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Argument-or-organisation_-The-battle-over-membership-of-the-European-Union.pdf

  Leave’s arguments seem to have more power to persuade:
After voters are exposed to detailed arguments on both sides of the
debate, the race shifts in Leave’s favour. We were able to test this by
asking people to tell us their voting intention before and after they had
been shown arguments from both campaigns. While remain led by
45 points to 40 at first amongst the total population, after respondents
had been exposed to a balanced debate, Leave and Remain tied on
42 per cent.

The Leave falsehoods certainly carry more of a fear factor than the Remain falsehoods.

Few interesting interviews this weekend:

Thought John Major absolutely brutalised the leave campaign yesterday, was a pretty hardcore anal pummelling.

Duty's hero Nigel "racist" Farage has come out saying if we stay in the EU all our women will get raped by immigrants. Looking forwards to when he pretty much singlehandedly uncovers the leave campaign as a bigoted bunch of racists.

-----

Had an interesting conversation with a few of us over a beer yesterday. The "leave" voters are generally in the C/D demographic bracket, basically meaning that they're the stupid people of society who didn't try at school and as such look to blame everything and anyone for why they're not richer. Like I've done here I threw up the somewhat jokey solution that all those who vote leave should not be allowed to emmigrate for the next 20 years (in the event of a EU exit).... Was then reminded of the main demographic group backing leave and that they'll be forced to stay here as they ain't got a hope in hell of getting a working visa abroad. So whilst the majority of us sensible remain voters will be free to up and leave for more economically sound climates the aforementioned demographic will be left with a third world economy.

How anyone can listen to Boris "contradictory" Johnson must be part of said moronic demographic:

If we get to this campaign, I would be well up for trying to make the positive case for some of the good things that have come from the single market.

It is also true that the single market is of considerable value to many UK companies and consumers, and that leaving would cause at least some business uncertainty, while embroiling the Government for several years in a fiddly process of negotiating new arrangements, so diverting energy from the real problems of this country – low skills, low social mobility, low investment etc – that have nothing to do with Europe.

In favour of staying, it is in Britain’s geo-strategic interests to be pretty intimately engaged in the doings of a continent that has a grim 20th-century history, and whose agonies have caused millions of Britons to lose their lives.

The only way leave wins is with a low turnout. Hoping the youngsters don't bugger things up for themselves and do indeed turnout.

Still not sure why bigoted old OAPs are allowed to vote on something that won't effect them as they'll be dead in a few years, but anyhoo.

P.s. Same Boris who now thinks that we could renegotiate all our trade deals inside 2 years. Not the "several" he said before.

Go home Boris, you're a drunk lying piece of blonde dog sh*t.