OWGR May 2015, The Quest for US Open and Open Championship Exemption

First topic message reminder :

This weekends winners are Rory (Regains a Hammerlock on #1) in the Cadillac Matchplay, IJ Jang on the Japanese Tour  (about #220), Vaughn Groenwald on the Sunshine Tour (to about #425), Smylie Kaufman on the Web-com Tour (to about #328).

This is what the Top 100 should look like tomorrow.  The Open Championship deadline says Week 21, which I think is May 25th for the Top 50.  The US Open exemption deadline are June 8th and June 15th.

 

1	Rory	McIlroy	12.625
2	Jordan	Spieth	9.052
3	Henrik	Stenson	7.250
4	Bubba	Watson	7.154
5	Jim	Furyk	6.980
6	Justin	Rose	6.430
7	Jason	Day	6.375
8	Dustin	Johnson	6.050
9	Adam	Scott	5.684
10	Sergio	Garcia	5.582
11	Jimmy	Walker	5.299
12	J.B.	Holmes	5.044
13	Rickie	Fowler	4.667
14	Hideki	Matsuyama	4.486
15	Patrick	Reed	4.449
16	Matt	Kuchar	4.410
17	Martin	Kaymer	4.301
18	Phil	Mickelson	4.179
19	Billy	Horschel	3.845
20	Brooks	Koepka	3.578
21	Victor	Dubuisson	3.424
22	Kevin	Na	3.403
23	Lee	Westwood	3.333
24	Louis	Oosthuizen	3.309
25	Bill	Haas	3.297
26	Chris	Kirk	3.265
27	Zach	Johnson	3.260
28	Ryan	Palmer	3.249
29	Ian	Poulter	3.168
30	Hunter	Mahan	3.157
31	Ryan	Moore	3.117
32	Gary	Woodland	3.097
33	Jamie	Donaldson	3.077
34	Paul	Casey	3.023
35	Graeme	McDowell	2.896
36	Anirban	Lahiri	2.883
37	Keegan	Bradley	2.871
38	Danny	Willett	2.853
39	Charl	Schwartzel	2.824
40	Branden	Grace	2.776
41	Brandt	Snedeker	2.762
42	Bernd	Wiesberger	2.614
43	Matt	Every	2.585
44	Stephen	Gallacher	2.552
45	Joost	Luiten	2.536
46	Brendon	Todd	2.525
47	Thongchai	Jaidee	2.483
48	Webb	Simpson	2.480
49	Russell	Henley	2.454
50	Tommy	Fleetwood	2.383
***Open Champ Deadline May 25th
51	Shane	Lowry	2.341
52	Charley	Hoffman	2.324
53	Marc	Warren	2.273
54	John	Senden	2.263
55	Luke	Donald	2.221
56	Alexander	Levy	2.218
57	Marc	Leishman	2.198
58	Cameron	Tringale	2.191
59	Harris	English	2.142
60	Andy	Sullivan	2.125
***US Open Deadlines June 8th and 15th
61	Tim	Clark	2.124
62	Jason	Dufner	2.120
63	George	Coetzee	2.088
64	Daniel	Berger	2.073
65	Matt	Jones	2.060
66	Ben	Martin	2.012
67	Thomas	Bjorn	1.986
68	Mikko	Ilonen	1.979
69	Miguel A	Jimenez	1.935
70	Francesco	Molinari	1.927
71	Marcel	Siem	1.921
72	Kevin	Streelman	1.903
73	Richie	Ramsay	1.847
74	Graham	Delaet	1.816
75	Ross	Fisher	1.812
76	Russell	Knox	1.766
77	Kiradech	Aphibarnrat	1.745
78	Koumei	Oda	1.744
79	Brendon	de Jonge	1.739
80	Sangmoon	Bae	1.715
81	Steve	Stricker	1.703
82	Ernie	Els	1.699
83	Nick	Watney	1.683
84	Morgan	Hoffmann	1.678
85	Padraig	Harrington	1.671
86	Justin	Thomas	1.669
87	Hiroshi	Iwata	1.659
88	Shawn	Stefani	1.644
89	Emiliano	Grillo	1.619
90	Pablo	Larrazabal	1.603
91	Robert	Streb	1.594
92	Brendan	Steele	1.593
93	Scott	Piercy	1.578
94	Jonas	Blixt	1.567
95	Angel	Cabrera	1.555
96	James	Hahn	1.554
97	Kevin	Stadler	1.537
98	Romain	Wattel	1.519
99	Gary	Stal	1.518
100	Brian	Harman	1.514

Agree about Bjorn, just. But he was well back so didn't bother considering him.

To comfortably crash the Top 60

Bowditch needs a top 10
English and M Jones need a top 4
Streelman, Streb, Knox need a top 3
Stefani, Delaet, Bae, McNeill, Watney, Steele, Stricker a top 2

Anyone from inside the top 150 will get inside the top 60 with a win.

Would also think Top Fifteen and Twenty finishes respectively would secure June 15th Top 60 placings for Kisner and Sullivan.

Good chances then for Bowditch and Streelman from GPB's projections.

But it seems that, even if he should win today, Molinari would not be exempt into The Open. The R&A have got their cut-off waaaayyyy too early. Premature extrapolation, to say the least. But a Top Ten at, say The Travelers, would do the trick. Daft.

I think the R/A starts the alternate list from a later OWGR ranking so Frankie should be pretty high on Alternate List.

should either win, Rose or Furyk will be #3.

Frankie would crash Top 25.

Lingmerth into the Top 70


Noren also gets into Top 70 with a win at the Nordea Masters.

Noren to #70
Lingmerth to #71

Frankie goes to #44 which should put as the #1 or #2 alternate for the Open Championship.

Is there a way for the field to be so weak that Harrington with a Win wouldn't get into the top 60?

YES!

It would take a high profile W/D like DJ or something right?

Harrington is probably right on the edge.
GPB would know better than moi but Schwartzel's w/d won't have helped Harrington. Very very close!

PD says Memphis could drop to level 34 and that would be barely enough for Paddy to get the into top 60.

But other players could spoil that I assume.

GPB,
It's already at 34 according to owgr, and that's before King Charl's abdication . . . . . A couple more and they'll be at 32 and that could rule Padraig out. Having said which, I quite fancy him to play well in Memphis!

OWGR says the Memphis has 179 EVR which is a strong 34.  King Charl is worth 7 EVR, so that moves it to 172 EVR.

Level 34 is 166-180, so Memphis is holding at Level 34 with King Charl's abdication.

To go to Level 32 it needs another high profile W/D or at least two low profile W/D.

Not sure about the owgr for Munich (36? EDIT: 32 according to owgr), but princedrac reckons 46 for The Travelers.

Regardless, a BIG week for Open Championship qualification:

1) Top 4 not previously exempt who finish Top 12 and ties at The Travelers.

2).Top 20 in FedEx points as at June 29th. Hoffman, Streb, Kisner seem to have wrapped up qualification via this route; Bowditch is 18th, Bae , Knox and Lingmerth need a decent finish in Hartford to reach the Top 20. Obviously podium finishers might overtake this lot.

3).Top 20 in R2D rankings on June 29th. Noren and Aphibarnrat will qualify via this route; Wood and Stal need a strong finish in Munich to join them.

Pablo moves up to about 70th.  
Henrik will move up to 5th if Bubba finishes 5th or worse.  

Bubba will retake the #3 spot if he finishes with a Two Way T2nd or better.

A Sergio win will move him to 6th at best, depending on how Bubba finishes.  Bubba would stay ahead if he finishes solo 7th or better.

Harman and DeLaet would move into top 50 with a win

Harman, DeLaet, Stroud, Rodgers, Garnett, Curran, Wilson, Petterson, and Gore are also playing for a spot into the Open Championship.

Top 4 will get an exemption as long as they finish in the top 12.  Ties will be resolved by highest World Ranking.


Edit: Woods down to at least 215th after this week.

Confirmation that Noren and Alphibarnrat qualify for St.Andrews via the R2D Top Twenty.

Looks like Hoffman, Streb, Kisner and Bowditch will qualify via FedEx Top Twenty pts, possibly more, but unlikely.

Luuuuuuuke

By hook or by crook . . . .
I think Luke Donald can unofficially be declared a participant at the Open Championship.

Come on Casey . . . . .

Paul Casey!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! All down to Bubba now.

Our coverage has been interrupted about seven times with coverage of the Dannemora fugitive so have missed most of the denouement of this.
Expecting a wub, wub, wub any moment with a bullet-ridden prisoner coming in to land.

I'm going to have another go at making a statement. Last two times I have got it wrong (Moi?) so I am now trying to live up to my name.
There were two exemption criteria resolved after the Travelers Championship: those in the top four in the tournament, but also the top 5 not already qualified from the top 20 of the FedEx points list. This would appear to give C Hoffman, Streb, Kisner and Bowditch places.
(Someone with more knowledge please confirm/deny )

I'm sure that's correct, but then I'm often wrong!
DeLaet, Harman, Pettersson and Donald off to shoot 254.

GPB,
McDool hasn't had a Top 25 finish since a 9th place in Dubai. Shocking really.
He's along way away from qualifying for the FedEx Play-Offs also.
But at least he's a two-time defending champion (thanks Smalrus); won't do him any good for FedEx ranking but it may spur some form for St.Andrews. Wouldn't bank on it though.

Greenbrier winner set to earn 40 owgr pts, only 36 for "France".
Disappointing; think McDool won about 44 pts a couple of yrs ago, just 36 last year though.
Pity they don't award extra points for Ryder Cup winners . . . . . .

Since Rory has W/D from the Scottish Open, Some projections for the Open Championship have become clearer

The only way Spieth can get the #1 ranking is to win at St Andrews.  If Rory plays St Andrews. He can get the #1 ranking even if he whiffies at John Deere.  If Rory doesn't play St Andrews, Spieth needs a ~top 6 finish at the Deere.

Assuming Rory plays St Andrews, he can prevent Spieth from getting the number one (assuming Spieth Wins) spot.


Jordon wins the Open Championship and Speith:

1. Wins JDC, Rory needs a two way T3 or better to keep #1
2. Finishes solo 2nd at JDC, Rory needs a Solo 5th to keep #1
3. Finishes solo 3rd at JDC, Rory needs a solo 7th to keep #1
4. Finishes solo 10th at JDC, Rory needs a solo 13th to keep #1
5. Finishes 33rd or worse, Rory needs a solo 18th to keep #1


Looks like JDC is going to be level 28 and Scottish is going to be Level 48.  Scottish Open was at Level 52 with Rory.

GPB,
Have you seen the reserve list yet?
If they use last week's owgr's as they did for the five entrants last week, I guessed Knox, Streelman, Ramsay, McNeill and Wood might be waiting in line, in that order?
Seen anything?

No I have not seen anything on alternates for TOC (but I haven't looked either)

I am still trying to find something on the HSBC qualification which you mentioned in the weekly thread.

GPB,
Here you go:

https://www.hsbcgolf.com/who-is-qualifying/

I linked it from pgatour.com.

The Bridgestone is more like what the "Champions" used to be, not sure what the hidden agenda is now for Shanghai except more Asian golfers and an effort to eliminate out-of-the-blue winners.

I think that is the same qualifications that were used for the 2014 edition.   Or at least very similar.

Here is a concise look at what Spieth has to do to catch Rory, assuming Rory is out through the PGA Tour Championship

Row 1 shows that Spieth is behind by 95.7 pts, right now, before John Deere is played.  

Row 2 shows that Spieth will be behind by 93.7 pts - whatever points he earns at John Deere.

	Rory's  Proj.	Net Pts	Scheduled
Date	OWGR Avg	Spieth Behind	Tournament
7/6/2015	12.69	95.72	Deere
7/13/2015	12.52	93.73	Open Champ
7/20/2015	12.60	105.83	Canadian
7/27/2015	12.42	102.78	Quicken Loans
8/3/2015	12.49	112.67	Bridgestone
8/10/2015	12.55	122.97	PGA
8/17/2015	12.33	119.58	Wyndham
8/24/2015	12.39	128.78	Barclays
8/31/2015	12.45	138.72	D-Bank
9/7/2015	12.22	133.69	None
9/14/2015	12.27	143.12	BMW Champ
9/21/2015	12.04	142.82	Tour Champ.

Spieth expected to play in the Bolded Tournaments

In weeks where Rory's OWGR average increases, a tournament is coming off his divisor.  Rory is not going to be losing too much from attrition, since his divisor is going to go from 48 tournaments to 42 tournaments if he misses the remainder of the 2014-15 PGATour schedule.

Deeper analysis of this table reveals a couple of phenomenas.

1. Everyone is reporting that Spieth needs a 7th place at Deere + Win at St Andrews to take the number one spot.  Well that is true for the July 20th ranking.  However, Spieth will be the #1 player on the July 27th ranking with a finish as low as 15th at the Deere, (and a win in St Andrews).

2. However, going one week further, to the August 3rd ranking, unless Spieth finishes in a two way tie 2nd or better at John Deere (and wins Open Champ) Rory will regain the #1 spot.

If Spieth is going to claim the Number 1 ranking in the next couple of months, he is going to have play his butt off, as he can't "Westwood" his way into the Number 1 ranking (attrition).

Furthermore, if Spieth does get #1 ranking after St Andrews, he still has to perform pretty well at B-Stone, PGA, and the Playoff events.

A Blast for the not so recent past.

K.T. Kim won the JPGA tournament earlier today.  It is second win in the last 5 weeks.  He won in Thailand on the One Asia Tour in week 24.

He got inside the Top 20 back in 2011 and was on the 2011 Int'l Prez Cup team in Australia.

Six weeks ago, he was well outside the Top 300, but after todays win he should be about #165.  He probably needs to go on a huge run on the Japanese Tour to get into 2015 Prez Cup consideration.

Great win by "Lil Rickie".

He moves up to #5 in the OWGR, just a fraction ahead of Fuyrk.

Americans occupy numbers 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 in the OWGR which would mean that #6 would be ineligible for the Olympics if the cutoff date were today.  (as well as numbers 12, 13, and 15)

Rumors coming from the Champions Dinner is that Rory is out until January.

If he doesn't play, Rory's OWGR average will be down around 9.28 at the end of year.

And everyone knows by now that Spieth can become #1 by winning this week.  Second place will not be good enough.

If we take it that Spieth's play this year is the level of performance we can expect going forward (he has been playing this well too long for it to be considered a hot streak) then Rory will have a huge battle to get his #1 spot back. I don't think he will- Spieth has too many consistently high finishes.

Remember that Spieth will have to maintain that standard in 2016. Stenson dominated a couple of years back, and wasn't able to keep it up. His ranking has slumped as a result. It's really rare for a golfer to keep up a good standard for two successive years.

Spieth is 21 years old. Stenson was 39. Can't see Spieth not dominating in the years to come, even with the occasional slumps.

4 mini tours in Europe will now be getting OWGR recognition.

http://www.owgr.com/news/2015/july/press-release

Trust there's reciprocal recognition of the Gateway Tours and egolf or whatever the Hooters Tour has morphed into? No report yet.

Kwini:  There should be.  Because basically they are the same thing.  Primarily funded by the players entry fees.

Some projection for winning at St Andrews

Willett #13
Dustin #3
Lawrie #31
Adam #3
Warren #15
Zach #11
Louis #7
Streb #16

Paul Dunne could be ranked #46 should he win.

Tiger is falling to at least #254.

Jordan will be #1 with a win.  

PD says Jordan needs a Top 10 finish to have a chance on becoming #1 at B-Stone.  I think it is more like a top 20 finish, but he is better at this type of thing than me.

Where can Paddy go with a win or a top 3 at least?

sirbenson wrote:Where can Paddy go with a win or a top 3 at least?

Win. .. 23rd at best
Solo 2nd ...Low 40s at best
Solo 3rd .. High 50s

he should be in the B-Stone for winning the Honda, so there should be no urgency to get into the top 50.  And he is in the PGA as a past champ.

Should be Guaranteed to play both Barclays and D-Bank in the playoffs.

Thanks GPB surreal to talk about him being as high in the rankings considering where he was ranked last November

sirbenson wrote:Thanks GPB surreal to talk about him being as high in the rankings considering where he was ranked last November

Guess that means there is hope then for Woods?  

Actually there are 5 players in this weeks Top 100 that started outside the Top 300.  Noren is ranked #71 after starting the year #653.

But Alex was injured, and seems to be again, which is more than (most of) the rest can say.

Agree with sirb that the worse the weather on Monday, the better you gotta like St.Padraig. Still love King Louis' chances.

GPB wrote:

sirbenson wrote:Thanks GPB surreal to talk about him being as high in the rankings considering where he was ranked last November

Guess that means there is hope then for Woods?  

Actually there are 5 players in this weeks Top 100 that started outside the Top 300.  Noren is ranked #71 after starting the year #653.

I for one think Tiger will turn it around and I do still think he will win majors!

MightY impressive from Alex Noren, not surprised.....his career is a case of injuries suck. Such a talent, still has plenty of time to do himself justice. I thought he was going to be a regular fixture in the top 10/20 (He still can)

Zach moves to #12, Louis to #13, and Leishman to #27.

J-Rose's T6 moves him from #8 to #4
J-Day's T4 moves him from #9 to #9.


Spieth has to win B-Stone to become #1.  Unless Rory is out until the end of the year, Spieth is not going to get the #1 ranking via the backdoor.  He is going to have play and play well.

Willett should get to #24 after his win.

Hearn would get into top 70 with a win (and 14th in the Prez Cup Standings)

Day could get to #3 with a win in the OWGR, but Bubba would have to really play badly today to not keep the #3 spot.

Speaking of Prez Cup Standings, Lahiri moves to #9, leapfrogging both Senden and Ben An with his solo 5th in Switzerland.   And he is #50 (before Canadian Open Results) which should get into B-Stone if he was not already qualified.

Will a few top-5's get Spieth the no. 1 spot?

Would think Thomas Bjorn is on the threshold of forfeiting his PGA Championship exemption . . . . .

Inco, How long is that piece of string you're dangling? And how long before Rory comes back to regain his rightful place?

Rory McIlroy 12.4196
Jordan Spieth 11.5395

the net is closing...

Am I right in guessing that Rory's 2013 PGA win will expire in a few weeks? But I guess his divisor will reduce from not playing tournaments...I don't know, it's a complicated business