Who will win the Championship?

First topic message reminder :

The top three teams are tied going into the final weekend and assuming all three teams win their games, the title is likely to be decided by who can score the most on the day.

First game, 3rd place Wales play Italy in Rome at 12.30. Wales have a points difference of +12, so will need to win by at least 30 points to have any chance, probably need 40+ for that chance to be realistic.

In the second game 2nd place Ireland play Scotland in Murrayfield at 14.30, they have a points difference of +33 and will need a convincing win- and to hope France turn up in London.

Final game, current leaders England play France at Twickenham at 17.00. They have a points difference of +37 and as the last team to play, they have the sizeable advantage of knowing exactly what the margin of victory will need to be for them to win the title. They will need to be more clinical than they were against Scotland, the title could be all but settled by now if they took all their chances

I am trying to remember if we been in the situation where the last 3 games all have a say in the outcome, can't think of an instance myself.

There are two trophies aren't there? One will be in Twickenham and the other will be in Scotland as we're defending champs.

If we lose and Wales win, they'll rush the cup down to Cardiff

Golden wrote:Hopefully France can pick up some confidence today to bring to England

Lets hope so. Although sadly based on this performance I can't see France winning at Twickenham

bedfordwelsh wrote:I am trying to remember if we been in the situation where the last 3 games all have a say in the outcome, can't think of an instance myself.

2007. France and Ireland were fighting it out for PD and technically England could have won if they beat Wales by something like 60 (and yet we were the only team to lose the Jenkin's Wales that competition)

SecretFly wrote:There are two trophies aren't there?  One will be in Twickenham and the other will be in Scotland as we're defending champs.

If we lose and Wales win, they'll rush the cup down to Cardiff

Well if that the case they will have to rush the team back from Italy to collect it as well given that we playing away

bedfordwelsh wrote:

SecretFly wrote:There are two trophies aren't there?  One will be in Twickenham and the other will be in Scotland as we're defending champs.

If we lose and Wales win, they'll rush the cup down to Cardiff

Well if that the case they will have to rush the team back from Italy to collect it as well given that we playing away

Oh yeah!!!!!!!!!!!!!! - em spaceship, if they can hire one! I do actually think there are just two trophies. Don't you think they'd have made a third just to be safe for everyone?

Indeed, one for everyone would kill all the banter and leave us all happy at the end. Six Trophies Please!!

Steffan wrote:

Golden wrote:Hopefully France can pick up some confidence today to bring to England

Lets hope so. Although sadly based on this performance I can't see France winning at Twickenham

I take nothing for granted now with England and last games of the tournament. 
Its not that long ago a pretty average Wales came back from the dead to overturn a massive points differential by bum humping them.

All 3 SHOULD win their games. 
The Italians look utterly shot and ripe for the picking, especially as they cant kick goals. Scotland may well be scratching around for players to make up a full 23. God knows who St Andre will pick for France, but they should be the strongest of the 3.

Its really hard to call. This could end up being a real classic 6 nations climax, even if the final games may be drab one sided affairs. We have seen the good )Wales Ireland) and the bad (France Italy) and the average (England Scotland) of the tournament this weekend.

George Carlin wrote:

Nachos Jones_1 wrote:If Haimona starts for Italy, then I can see Wales having a good day. He truly is the worst  10 I have ever seen.

 

Ha ha ha

Think Ireland are probably in the best position but the Scots could make it very difficult if them bring their best game... I'm hoping.

France have the joint best defence in the championship. Nor would I be surprised if France win next week.

Ok, I don't think Ireland are going to come into the equation next weekend.

I think Wales are gonna go out guns blazing next weekend and put six tries past Italy and a couple of penalties.  And let's assume Halfpenny converts all but one conversion.  That's 48 points.   Going by their performance against France, Italy might manage to get a couple of penalties in front of the sticks.  That gives Wales 42, and a 54 PD overall.    They go top of the table.

Ireland then play Scotland starting with a +33.   Sexton knocks over 5 penalties, and maybe Ireland score a try somewhere, somehow, that's converted.  They're now on 22.   Scotland will definitely score something- let's say at least 10 to be conservative.   Ireland bust a gut and get risky trying to force the scoreline.   Scotland take advantage and nip in with a couple more tries and win the game.   Or it's a small margin one way or other.  Ireland are out of it.

England then face France on +37.  They've got to win and by a margin of 18 or more.  Possible?  Yep.  But they'll be sweating.

It's Wales or England.  If Wales can smash Italy - and I think they will - then Wales will win it.

Hale, do the maths for me because I really am more arty than summy

Let's say Wales get 50 - 0 against Italy. I'm just trying to imagine a perfect day for them when everything works out, when they get a nice ref and when Italy almost do literally walk off the field before the end.

Now, what's the gap we'd need between Scotland and ourselves if that happened?

bedfordwelsh wrote:I wonder where the organisers will place the trophy next weekend?

Good question, I have gone for Ireland as I can't see Wales winning by a large margin if at al with no props. I am hoping France get their act together to beat England by 8 points if they do win and Wales and Ireland lose France are champs. It seems unlikely but France have the joint best defence with Ireland in the 6N.

If France pulled off a Championship win from here, they really are the Get Out of Jail Free Kings!!!
They've almost done it at the last WC.

Here's a possible scenario.

England go into the final game needing a 14 point margin to win. They reach the 79th minute and they lead 29-15. France are awarded a penalty - easily kickable. There's just enough time left for a lineout. There'll be no time if they kick the penalty. Either way it won't affect who wins the match. What does Thierry Dusatoir decide?

Pot Hale wrote:Here's a possible scenario.  

England go into the final game needing a 14 point margin to win.   They reach the 79th minute and they lead 29-15.  France are awarded a penalty - easily kickable.  There's just enough time left for a lineout.   There'll be no time if they kick the penalty.  Either way it won't affect who wins the match.  What does Thierry Dusatoir decide?  

The way France are playing he'll find a way to turn the ball over either way.

SecretFly wrote:Hale, do the maths for me because I really am more arty than summy

Let's say Wales get 50 - 0 against Italy.  I'm just trying to imagine a perfect day for them when everything works out, when they get a nice ref and when Italy almost do literally walk off the field before the end.

Now, what's the gap we'd need between Scotland and ourselves if that happened?

Wales win by 50. Plus their existing 12 point margin, puts them top of the table on a PD of +62.

Ireland on +33 would need to beat Scotland by at least 30. I just can't see that happening unless Schmidt decides to bring back O'Driscoll and Darcy - they know how to pass the ball and catch it - most of the time.

Pot Hale wrote:Here's a possible scenario.  

England go into the final game needing a 14 point margin to win.   They reach the 79th minute and they lead 29-15.  France are awarded a penalty - easily kickable.  There's just enough time left for a lineout.   There'll be no time if they kick the penalty.  Either way it won't affect who wins the match.  What does Thierry Dusatoir decide?  

It's France, right?

Hmmmmm... Dusatoir decides to take the penalty kick himself????

England most probably. Exciting end to the tournament nonetheless which is marvelous for all. Also hope that Andy ( ) Nicol has something to smile about next weekend.

Pot Hale wrote:

SecretFly wrote:Hale, do the maths for me because I really am more arty than summy

Let's say Wales get 50 - 0 against Italy.  I'm just trying to imagine a perfect day for them when everything works out, when they get a nice ref and when Italy almost do literally walk off the field before the end.

Now, what's the gap we'd need between Scotland and ourselves if that happened?

Wales win by 50.  Plus their existing 12 point margin, puts them top of the table on a PD of +62.

Ireland on +33 would need to beat Scotland by at least 30.  I just can't see that happening unless Schmidt decides to bring back O'Driscoll and Darcy - they know how to pass the ball and catch it - most of the time.

Good, Pot, thanks - that gives me a reference point at least. If Wales hit perfection it's out of our reach but perfection is hard to come by and even 30-0 for them would be some performance. I think Ireland have it in them to put some realistic space between Scotland and themselves if they try to come in a 'versus New Zealand' frame of mind. Unlikely, but doable.

I did some stats earlier in the Championship. Italy historically give up the most points in the Championship in the final round. At home.

France mangled them. Wales are gonna blitz them next week. It's gonna be Italian coniglio in the fari turned into Welsh rarebit on a plate with a Scott Williams hat-trick.

England will be sweating buckets come tea-time.

Cardiff Dave wrote:England most probably. Exciting end to the tournament nonetheless which is marvelous for all. Also hope that Andy ( ) Nicol has something to smile about next weekend.

You want us to lose too??? God, we've run out of friends fast when we lived for a while in the fast lane

maestegmafia wrote:

George Carlin wrote:

Nachos Jones_1 wrote:If Haimona starts for Italy, then I can see Wales having a good day. He truly is the worst  10 I have ever seen.

 

Ha ha ha

Get in!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3NdvuYcvk5k

SecretFly wrote:

Cardiff Dave wrote:England most probably. Exciting end to the tournament nonetheless which is marvelous for all. Also hope that Andy ( ) Nicol has something to smile about next weekend.

You want us to lose too??? God, we've run out of friends fast when we lived for a while in the fast lane

Who's us?

SecretFly wrote:

Pot Hale wrote:

SecretFly wrote:Hale, do the maths for me because I really am more arty than summy

Let's say Wales get 50 - 0 against Italy.  I'm just trying to imagine a perfect day for them when everything works out, when they get a nice ref and when Italy almost do literally walk off the field before the end.

Now, what's the gap we'd need between Scotland and ourselves if that happened?

Wales win by 50.  Plus their existing 12 point margin, puts them top of the table on a PD of +62.

Ireland on +33 would need to beat Scotland by at least 30.  I just can't see that happening unless Schmidt decides to bring back O'Driscoll and Darcy - they know how to pass the ball and catch it - most of the time.

Good, Pot, thanks - that gives me a reference point at least.  If Wales hit perfection it's out of our reach but perfection is hard to come by and even 30-0 for them would be some performance.  I think Ireland have it in them to put some realistic space between Scotland and themselves if they try to come in a 'versus New Zealand' frame of mind.  Unlikely, but doable.

Let's say that Wales only manage 35-40 margin. Ireland would still need a 15-20 point margin on Scotland - I just don't see where they're going to get the points from. Scotland have scored in their four matches - and I don't see that changing next week. The lowest they got was against France - 8 points. Ireland's highest score was against Italy - where they got two tries with Italy a man down. They're not going to win by a substantial margin through kicking penalties. They only kicked out of hand 18 times against Wales - lots of passing, but no tries.

Pot Hale wrote:Here's a possible scenario.  

England go into the final game needing a 14 point margin to win.   They reach the 79th minute and they lead 29-15.  France are awarded a penalty - easily kickable.  There's just enough time left for a lineout.   There'll be no time if they kick the penalty.  Either way it won't affect who wins the match.  What does Thierry Dusatoir decide?  

Lets face it Lopez will probably miss it anyway

Cardiff Dave wrote:

SecretFly wrote:

Cardiff Dave wrote:England most probably. Exciting end to the tournament nonetheless which is marvelous for all. Also hope that Andy ( ) Nicol has something to smile about next weekend.

You want us to lose too??? God, we've run out of friends fast when we lived for a while in the fast lane

Who's us?

The side facing the Scots??? Is everyone going a little heady at all the prospects being hoofed around?

SecretFly wrote:

Cardiff Dave wrote:

SecretFly wrote:

Cardiff Dave wrote:England most probably. Exciting end to the tournament nonetheless which is marvelous for all. Also hope that Andy ( ) Nicol has something to smile about next weekend.

You want us to lose too??? God, we've run out of friends fast when we lived for a while in the fast lane

Who's us?

The side facing the Scots???  Is everyone going a little heady at all the prospects being hoofed around?

Oh I see. I'd like to see the Jocks get a win over the Irish yes. Dan Parks kicking the winning points would be epic.

Pot Hale wrote:

Let's say that Wales only manage 35-40 margin.   Ireland would still need a 15-20 point margin on Scotland - I just don't see where they're going to get the points from.   Scotland have scored in their four matches - and I don't see that changing next week. The lowest they got was against France - 8 points.   Ireland's highest score was against Italy - where they got two tries with Italy a man down.   They're not going to win by a substantial margin through kicking penalties.   They only kicked out of hand 18 times against Wales -   lots of passing, but no tries.    

Well Wales have played in Italy 7 times since 2000.
Italy won twice so that's 5 winning games in Italy for Wales since 2000

2001 margin - 10
2005 margin - 30 - Welsh GS
2009 margin - 5
2011 margin - 8
2013 margin - 17 - Welsh Champions

So in 2005, when you might suggest Wales were strongest and Italy lost all games.  Italy still scored at least a try a game that year.

A 35-40 point margin will be Wales back to its very best?

SecretFly wrote:

Pot Hale wrote:

Let's say that Wales only manage 35-40 margin.   Ireland would still need a 15-20 point margin on Scotland - I just don't see where they're going to get the points from.   Scotland have scored in their four matches - and I don't see that changing next week. The lowest they got was against France - 8 points.   Ireland's highest score was against Italy - where they got two tries with Italy a man down.   They're not going to win by a substantial margin through kicking penalties.   They only kicked out of hand 18 times against Wales -   lots of passing, but no tries.    

Well Wales have played in Italy 7 times since 2000.
Italy won twice so that's 5 winning games in Italy for Wales since 2000

2001 margin - 10
2005 margin - 30 - Welsh GS
2009 margin - 5
2011 margin - 8
2013 margin - 17 - Welsh Champions

So in 2005, when you might suggest Wales were strongest and Italy lost all games.  Italy still scored at least a try a game that year.

A 35-40 point margin will be Wales back to its very best?

Agreed.   If Italy turn up next week, then a Welsh large winning margin goes out the window.   But they were incredibly inept today.

PS - for a guy declaring himself "more arty than summy", you've gotten numerate awful quick.

I know.  But they have limitations and they have to conserve energies.  Perhaps trying to conserve some for the last game.  They know Wales are going to come at them like a steam engine - harder than France - so perhaps a degree of 'pragmatism' about this week.

SecretFly wrote:I know.  But they have limitations and they have to conserve energies.  Perhaps trying to conserve some for the last game.  They know Wales are going to come at them like a steam engine - harder than France - so perhaps a degree of 'pragmatism' about this week.

Sure they have limitations, but I reckon if they were weighing up the two matches as which they could get a win from, which of France or Wales do you think they would have favoured in advance?

On the other hand, now that they were eviscerated, they may actually manage to gird their loins next week.

Oh I'm not saying they wouldn't have liked to beat France again but realistically I think survival is the key at this stage for them, Pot.  Fatigue is setting in and they've had a good enough run for them.  I don't think they'll want to be embarrassed by Wales, so one last all out effort next week to keep the scoreline down................................. I hope.

Pot Hale wrote:
Agreed.   If Italy turn up next week, then a Welsh large winning margin goes out the window.   But they were incredibly inept today.

PS - for a guy declaring himself "more arty than summy", you've gotten numerate awful quick.

It's a rat trap, baby....and you been caught...

SecretFly wrote:

Pot Hale wrote:
Agreed.   If Italy turn up next week, then a Welsh large winning margin goes out the window.   But they were incredibly inept today.

PS - for a guy declaring himself "more arty than summy", you've gotten numerate awful quick.

It's a rat trap, baby....and you been caught...

Yeah - did you really think I believed ya?

Mumbling oul' Rats songs is the second sign of senility, you know......

How can anyone in their right mind have England as favourites?

It's clearly Ireland's for the taking, and Wales should push them very close. England have to first beat France, which is a big doubt, let alone by any significant points margin. In fact if France win, which they could easily, has anyone worked out by what score they would finish 3rd, demoting England to 4th?

England have a big advantage in that all games will be over by the time they play France. Also thankfully the Wales v Italy game will be over when Ireland play Scotland so we will know exactly by how much we will need to win that game by.

It is really tough to call. Anyone could take it really but based on the fixture times I think England will rally and do the job.

[quote="glamorganalun"]

bedfordwelsh wrote:I wonder where the organisers will place the trophy next weekend?

Good question, I have gone for Ireland as I can't see Wales winning by a large margin if at al with no props. I am hoping France get their act together to beat England by 8 points if they do win and Wales and Ireland lose France are champs. It seems unlikely but France have the joint best defence with Ireland in the 6N.

Alun,

I have never been a fan of Jarvis but I don't think he got shown up on Saturday and this young boy Francis has been getting rave reviews this year so I would def get him on the bench. Evans has been in great form for the Scarlets this year so no worried about him either, if will be a very inexperienced front row though so that could be where Italy target.

MissBlennerhassett wrote:How can anyone in their right mind have England as favourites?

It's clearly Ireland's for the taking, and Wales should push them very close. England have to first beat France, which is a big doubt, let alone by any significant points margin. In fact if France win, which they could easily, has anyone worked out by what score they would finish 3rd, demoting England to 4th?

France would have to win by 8 to go ahead of England.  I see  youve fallen into the same  trap of arrogance there and assumed Wales and Ireland will also win. 

In terms of the chances of a French win, ahead of the tournament they wouldve been seen as a lot higher  than they are now. People have a hard time  understanding how France can be so consistently woeful, and assumed there must be some  level of improvement on last year. if anything, especially last weekend, they have been even worse and now dont even have reliable goal kicking. 
Yes they  are the strongest of the three opponents but still massively flawed.

England conversely have been fairly good, about at their usual level and have a near full strength squad for a change. France havent got a clue who to pick or anything resembling a team. 

Look at recent results at Twickenham, England won the last 3. And twice  that was against fairly strong French sides rather than one at a low ebb. 
The biggest margin  of victory France have ever managed away to England is 8 points (1951). 

In that context its not wholly surprising people have England as strong favourites for this game is it? Certainly them getting bumped to 4th would be "a thing".

In terms of the title its a much closer call. Ireland and Wales do have weak opponents, but are playing away. I wouldnt be amazed to see Wales hit by  some withdrawals following the battering they took in their win this weekend. Certainly I can't see them being able to play  with that level of aggression for a second week in a row. Italy were horrid though and are ripe for the picking, the lack of goal kicking will make life a lot easier for Wales. Im going to say this, Wales are also the weakest of the three top sides.
Irelands opponents are a little bit tougher but again falling apart at the seams. So they should win and win comfortably, but Ireland do have a defensive approach to the game which hasnt yielded a great deal of points for them so far. Building up a cricket score may not be so easy for them.  



The beauty of the 6 nations though is that anyone confidently predicting anything usually ends up with egg on their faces. I would expect Wales England Ireland to win  their games, the title is anyones guess. Recent history has shown the final weekend can throw up as many surprises as the other weekends and come from behind winners are not unknown, screw stick your mortgage payments on France.

Cant remember a final weekend where 4 teams mathematically can still win. Intetresting times. It would be so typical of France to get the win on Saturday.

I hope they do too as they would hold onto PSA for the WC and make things easier for Ireland in their group.

Gooseberry wrote:

MissBlennerhassett wrote:How can anyone in their right mind have England as favourites?

It's clearly Ireland's for the taking, and Wales should push them very close. England have to first beat France, which is a big doubt, let alone by any significant points margin. In fact if France win, which they could easily, has anyone worked out by what score they would finish 3rd, demoting England to 4th?

France would have to win by 8 to go ahead of England.  I see  youve fallen into the same  trap of arrogance there and assumed Wales and Ireland will also win. 

In terms of the chances of a French win, ahead of the tournament they wouldve been seen as a lot higher  than they are now. People have a hard time  understanding how France can be so consistently woeful, and assumed there must be some  level of improvement on last year. if anything, especially last weekend, they have been even worse and now dont even have reliable goal kicking. 
Yes they  are the strongest of the three opponents but still massively flawed.

England conversely have been fairly good, about at their usual level and have a near full strength squad for a change. France havent got a clue who to pick or anything resembling a team. 

Look at recent results at Twickenham, England won the last 3. And twice  that was against fairly strong French sides rather than one at a low ebb. 
The biggest margin  of victory France have ever managed away to England is 8 points (1951). 

In that context its not wholly surprising people have England as strong favourites for this game is it? Certainly them getting bumped to 4th would be "a thing".

In terms of the title its a much closer call. Ireland and Wales do have weak opponents, but are playing away. I wouldnt be amazed to see Wales hit by  some withdrawals following the battering they took in their win this weekend. Certainly I can't see them being able to play  with that level of aggression for a second week in a row. Italy were horrid though and are ripe for the picking, the lack of goal kicking will make life a lot easier for Wales. Im going to say this, Wales are also the weakest of the three top sides.
Irelands opponents are a little bit tougher but again falling apart at the seams. So they should win and win comfortably, but Ireland do have a defensive approach to the game which hasnt yielded a great deal of points for them so far. Building up a cricket score may not be so easy for them.  



The beauty of the 6 nations though is that anyone confidently predicting anything usually ends up with egg on their faces. I would expect Wales England Ireland to win  their games, the title is anyones guess. Recent history has shown the final weekend can throw up as many surprises as the other weekends and come from behind winners are not unknown, screw stick your mortgage payments on France.

Nice arrogance there Gooseberry! What are you on?

I love the smell of 'Arrogance' in the Morning

I have England as favourites myself. France are very poor and England at home are very strong. I imagine that Lancaster will be working on their handling skills and awareness this week as they did fluff a few very good chances against Scotland. Get that right against France and England could well do a number on them.

Wales, should put away Italy quite comfortably even if away from home. They just have too much power, pace and accurate kicking for the Italians.

Ireland, well really should beat Scotland but I am concerned about this match as an Irishman. Scotland will be desperate to put in a good showing in the last match and have shown a lot of attacking intent. Attacking intent that may leave themselves open or put Ireland under the cosh.

I believed at the start of this competition that there would not be a GS and that it would come down to points and for me, England are in the best position.

Winners England
2nd Wales
3rd Ireland
4th France
5th Italy
6th Scotand

Ireland have lost their last two games in Murrayfield. Just thought Id throw that out there.

MissBlennerhassett wrote:

Gooseberry wrote:

MissBlennerhassett wrote:How can anyone in their right mind have England as favourites?

It's clearly Ireland's for the taking, and Wales should push them very close. England have to first beat France, which is a big doubt, let alone by any significant points margin. In fact if France win, which they could easily, has anyone worked out by what score they would finish 3rd, demoting England to 4th?

France would have to win by 8 to go ahead of England.  I see  youve fallen into the same  trap of arrogance there and assumed Wales and Ireland will also win. 

In terms of the chances of a French win, ahead of the tournament they wouldve been seen as a lot higher  than they are now. People have a hard time  understanding how France can be so consistently woeful, and assumed there must be some  level of improvement on last year. if anything, especially last weekend, they have been even worse and now dont even have reliable goal kicking. 
Yes they  are the strongest of the three opponents but still massively flawed.

England conversely have been fairly good, about at their usual level and have a near full strength squad for a change. France havent got a clue who to pick or anything resembling a team. 

Look at recent results at Twickenham, England won the last 3. And twice  that was against fairly strong French sides rather than one at a low ebb. 
The biggest margin  of victory France have ever managed away to England is 8 points (1951). 

In that context its not wholly surprising people have England as strong favourites for this game is it? Certainly them getting bumped to 4th would be "a thing".

In terms of the title its a much closer call. Ireland and Wales do have weak opponents, but are playing away. I wouldnt be amazed to see Wales hit by  some withdrawals following the battering they took in their win this weekend. Certainly I can't see them being able to play  with that level of aggression for a second week in a row. Italy were horrid though and are ripe for the picking, the lack of goal kicking will make life a lot easier for Wales. Im going to say this, Wales are also the weakest of the three top sides.
Irelands opponents are a little bit tougher but again falling apart at the seams. So they should win and win comfortably, but Ireland do have a defensive approach to the game which hasnt yielded a great deal of points for them so far. Building up a cricket score may not be so easy for them.  



The beauty of the 6 nations though is that anyone confidently predicting anything usually ends up with egg on their faces. I would expect Wales England Ireland to win  their games, the title is anyones guess. Recent history has shown the final weekend can throw up as many surprises as the other weekends and come from behind winners are not unknown, screw stick your mortgage payments on France.

Nice arrogance there Gooseberry! What are you on?

Ok sorry, I guess Italy have a good chance. 

I must be an absolute numpkin to expect favourites to win, not assume mind...just expect.

3rd would be Fail for us.  
Big fail when doing an assessment of intensity games in a short period of time.  It's always been an Irish weakness - stringing three or four, or even two really intense games together in a tight timeframe that would mimic the WC.
That's been a major weakness; and if Scotland get the better of us, or even keep us too close to be in the running for 1st, then that's a major failure of the system again.

Joe must pick the players doing the hardest stuff in training.  He doesn't have the leisure to be picking players to get them back to form.  There was more than one of those players on the team at the weekend!
If the title is there to be had, then recalls for a few dropped players should be on the cards.

Careful there Fly, must not think or say such things for fear of being labeled me

Gooseberry wrote:

MissBlennerhassett wrote:

Gooseberry wrote:

MissBlennerhassett wrote:How can anyone in their right mind have England as favourites?

It's clearly Ireland's for the taking, and Wales should push them very close. England have to first beat France, which is a big doubt, let alone by any significant points margin. In fact if France win, which they could easily, has anyone worked out by what score they would finish 3rd, demoting England to 4th?

France would have to win by 8 to go ahead of England.  I see  youve fallen into the same  trap of arrogance there and assumed Wales and Ireland will also win. 

In terms of the chances of a French win, ahead of the tournament they wouldve been seen as a lot higher  than they are now. People have a hard time  understanding how France can be so consistently woeful, and assumed there must be some  level of improvement on last year. if anything, especially last weekend, they have been even worse and now dont even have reliable goal kicking. 
Yes they  are the strongest of the three opponents but still massively flawed.

England conversely have been fairly good, about at their usual level and have a near full strength squad for a change. France havent got a clue who to pick or anything resembling a team. 

Look at recent results at Twickenham, England won the last 3. And twice  that was against fairly strong French sides rather than one at a low ebb. 
The biggest margin  of victory France have ever managed away to England is 8 points (1951). 

In that context its not wholly surprising people have England as strong favourites for this game is it? Certainly them getting bumped to 4th would be "a thing".

In terms of the title its a much closer call. Ireland and Wales do have weak opponents, but are playing away. I wouldnt be amazed to see Wales hit by  some withdrawals following the battering they took in their win this weekend. Certainly I can't see them being able to play  with that level of aggression for a second week in a row. Italy were horrid though and are ripe for the picking, the lack of goal kicking will make life a lot easier for Wales. Im going to say this, Wales are also the weakest of the three top sides.
Irelands opponents are a little bit tougher but again falling apart at the seams. So they should win and win comfortably, but Ireland do have a defensive approach to the game which hasnt yielded a great deal of points for them so far. Building up a cricket score may not be so easy for them.  



The beauty of the 6 nations though is that anyone confidently predicting anything usually ends up with egg on their faces. I would expect Wales England Ireland to win  their games, the title is anyones guess. Recent history has shown the final weekend can throw up as many surprises as the other weekends and come from behind winners are not unknown, screw stick your mortgage payments on France.

Nice arrogance there Gooseberry! What are you on?

Ok sorry, I guess Italy have a good chance. 

I must be an absolute numpkin to expect favourites to win, not assume mind...just expect.

But when I do, I'm falling in to "an arrogance trap"?

You couldn't make this stuff up!

Gooseberry wrote:


Ok sorry, I guess Italy have a good chance. 

I must be an absolute numpkin to expect favourites to win, not assume mind...just expect.

Goose, isn't she referring to the idea in your own post that she was being a touch arrogant in assuming the same thing? That Italy would lose and Wales, Ireland and England would win?