NZ test side: probables, possibles and bolters.

First topic message reminder :

What a difference a few months makes. The Chiefs looked like the only side to wave the NZ flag for the S15 franchises. (I wonder how much of their dipping fortunes can be attributed to the loss of Cruden.) The Crusaders looked more than their fragile customary slow starts: they looked woeful. As did the Hurricanes, notably on defence. The Blues, Highlanders had their odd moment but lacked consistency.

Winning and losing can become a habit and it seems the Chiefs are experiencing the latter and the Crusaders and Hurricanes the former with the Blues and Highlanders riding a rollercoaster of emotions. The Australian franchises have a lot to be enthusiastic about and SA will be worried about their form in key positions but much like the beginning of the S15 season, it's too early to start making predictions about test form.

What to make of the looming June series against England? What will Hansen and his team be thinking?

For me, the things that will be worrying the wise men the most is flyhalf - will Cruden be fit and if not who will accompany Barrett and who will start - openside - is McCaw equally going to figure and in what role - and front row. In the backs, they have a welcome problem. Apart from Dagg, the backline players look in ominous form. There is a new boy on the blocks in Fekitoa who looks to be making some big plays in the centres. Crotty is your typical home brand no thrills Crusader solid type player that can do a job for you but this Fekitoa has more the excitement of a Piutau about him. Smith is looking near his sniping best but will Hansen want version 2.0 Perenara, who looks in good nick, or stick with the opposites attract of TK? Barrett can come on and make things happen but can he start a test and run a ship like Cruden can? Is there the possibility of Slade filling that role and leaving Barrett to do what he does best? Or will Hansen want to see if Barrett is capable in that starting role and have Slade there as insurance, fulfilling an I've got this, my name is Weepu, Piri Weepu type role?

With a diluted English first test side, will Hansen see this test as an opportunity to experiment? Will he try to use it as an opportunity for Dagg to regain form much like he did in the France tests? Or will he bolder in his experimentation and have Ben Smith at fullback to accommodate a flyer on the wing to accompany Savea? Is there room still for Jane and keep Piutau hungry and learning on the bench or is it time to start him? How many wingers will he select and is there a room for the likes of Halai?

In the forwards, there is much to like and there is an area of doubt. On the positives, the return of Kaino is welcome. A physical presence in the rucks against a physical English backrow will be needed. Where does that leave the likes of Messam and Luatua who looked good at various times last year? Will McCaw, who might not make it back at 7 for the Crusaders, not take on as much as he was last time or will he step back and cover the entire backrow from the bench? Is it time to put more responsibility on Kieran Read's shoulders and make Cane step up even further than last year or is the warhorse still going to lead from the front? Is Kaino genuine cover for 8 or can McCaw take that role or is it time for the return of Vito? Depth at 6 is still not a substitute for depth at 7 or 8. How match fit will McCaw be by June and how much experimentation will be made in the backrow? Lock seems solid with the return of Romano so that leaves the front row. Coles has lots of impact in the loose but is there any room for the veteran Mealamu and if not who is there to replace him. Crockett, Faumuina, the Franks brothers but like Mealamu is there room for Woodcock?

How many players can Hansen have at his disposal? He won't be allowed as many as SL so in which positions does he need to flood and which can he leave more threadbare?

Front row: Crockett, Woodcock, Franks brothers, Mealamu, Coles, Faumuina (7)
Locks : Whitelock, Retallick, Romano (3)
Back Row: Kaino, Luatua, Messam, Read, Cane, McCaw, Kaino (7)
Halfbacks : Smith, Perenara, TK (3)
Flyhalves: Barrett, Slade, Cruden (2)
Centres : Nonu, Smith, Crotty, Fekitoa (4)
Back Three Dagg, Smith, Jane, Savea, Piutau (5)

That makes 31. Who won't make it and who should be there I haven't added.

Think he'll come to Cardiff Rainbow?

blackcanelion wrote:Romano's out broken ankle

So I think the unavailable list is currently:

Piatau: Out - Injured
Romano: Out - Injured
Carter: Out - Sabbatical
Cruden: Possible - Due back from injury
Read: Probable - ongoing concussion

Add Coles to the possible list. Injured back. Out this weekend, can never be sure with back injuries. Reads still suffering from concussion. This may be more of a concern.

blackcanelion wrote:

blackcanelion wrote:Romano's out broken ankle

So I think the unavailable list is currently:

Piatau: Out - Injured
Romano: Out - Injured
Carter: Out - Sabbatical
Cruden: Possible - Due back from injury
Read: Probable - ongoing concussion

Add Coles to the possible list. Injured back. Out this weekend, can never be sure with back injuries. Reads still suffering from concussion. This may be more of a concern.

Pity we aren't Toulouse then. He'd have been back on, straight into it, played last week and looking forward to this week...whats the problem?  

Possible problems at hooker and lock if first line pick up injuries,Interesting Crusaders seem
to be fielding virtually a B side versus Sharks,no Read,Todd,Ellis,Romano,Dagg does`n t even
rate the bench is he that bad ?

emack2 wrote:Possible problems at hooker and lock if first line pick up injuries,Interesting Crusaders seem
to be fielding virtually a B side versus Sharks,no Read,Todd,Ellis,Romano,Dagg does`n t even
rate the bench is he that bad ?

Daggs resting up as well. Hes back to pretty good form. But yeah the rest are injured. Should still beat the Sharks though. White couldnt have got them at a worse time, bar the injuries. Saders are back to their very best days.

Barrett off injured. Looked like he tweaked something in the process of punting the ball.

So all in....whats the likely starting test side for the 1st test v England's Development team   ?

Too soon to say. Cruden might be back to fitness along with Read and Coles. Experienced hookers and props might give way to more inexperienced ones in the first test. Injuries still might happen but basically form is looking healthy across the board from the test regulars last year.

You'd have to say that after the Hurricane's dismantling of the Chiefs, not to mention the amazing goalkicking in difficult conditions, Barrett is putting his hand up to start. Cruden faces a tough game against the Waratahs and has an opportunity to show the selectors there's time for him to make the first test. But if he has another anonymous display, could the unthinkable happen and he's told to get back to fitness and form and give the bench role to Slade? With Piutau out, Barrett and Slade can cover other positions apart from first five, which might make those two names appealing. Or it could mean Cruden remains as a third option.

I don't think Cruden will lose his position as he's proven in the big games. It's just that he's had a long lay off and Read is in the same boat and it worries me he doesn't have many games to get back to fitness and form.

One would suggest with respect NZ NOT experiment in the First Test where they are traditionally slow starters.
Injured need more game time and there are depth in some positions but Locks may
need some old hands if required.
Irelands flying start in the last game may have been down to complancy 7 changes to
a team is a lot.

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:You'd have to say that after the Hurricane's dismantling of the Chiefs, not to mention the amazing goalkicking in difficult conditions, Barrett is putting his hand up to start. Cruden faces a tough game against the Waratahs and has an opportunity to show the selectors there's time for him to make the first test. But if he has another anonymous display, could the unthinkable happen and he's told to get back to fitness and form and give the bench role to Slade? With Piutau out, Barrett and Slade can cover other positions apart from first five, which might make those two names appealing. Or it could mean Cruden remains as a third option.

I don't think Cruden will lose his position as he's proven in the big games. It's just that he's had a long lay off and Read is in the same boat and it worries me he doesn't have many games to get back to fitness and form.

On form Barrett and Slade should be in the 23, particularly for goalkicking purposes alone. Starting with DC- untried and unproven with his play and specifically goalkicking (unless as you say he returns to immediate pre injury form vs the tahs).

But Hansens one for incumbants first up, meaning Messam and Cruden have 'familiarity' reasons to slot straight back in over Barrett/ Slade / Kaino.

But does it really matter? They've got to ease Cruden back in as he's proven. Perhaps bench first test behind Barrett? But we have the best 10 options by a country mile in World rugby. For now goalkicking should be considered as more important given our combinations are unlikely to click first up, meaning Slade/ Barrett become the focus- both in superb form.

One of the big questions will be how much they'll experiment. The Ireland game last year showed they're quite prepared to put out second string sides against tier 1 sides.

My guess is they'll start conservatively and work on developing the players they introduced last year, by playing them if the games blow out or for limited minutes at the end. Play their top side against the boksand wallabies. Play a few newbies against Argentina, give the development team a run against the usa and scotland. Put out a strong side against England and mix it up a bitvs Wales.

yeah BC with 22 players since the World cup there'd be something wrong if you were introducing 10-12 every year- some have to stay on. I'd say we might get another 5 or 6 newbies this year, maybe two or three next year but i wouldnt expect much more than that. Your World cup squad should have some major depth to it surely. Fekitoa looks the only potential bolter this year perhaps?

I think hooker needs depth and the front row so some new faces are needed there. Fekitoa and Smith were a lethal combination. I'd like to see some of those plays against England with Nonu.

Romano is out so locking options from the bench might see a new face though Thrush did the hard yards last week against the Chiefs. Halfback options and Slade's possible return could see some previously known faces or a bolter.

The questions for me is what becomes of Messam in a back row Luatua has slipped behind, how to incorporate Read who hasn't played much rugby but should be back this weekend and how to manage McCaw. If Slade makes the test squad does DC get a game for the Crusaders or does Slade get a starting role if Cruden has the bench? Backline picks itself apart from Jane, Smith and Dagg as to who gets the fullback and wing spot.

Thank God I have rugby to distract me from that painful CL defeat. Not quite up there with RWC exits for NZ but surprised me how close.

Taylorman wrote:yeah BC with 22 players since the World cup there'd be something wrong if you were introducing 10-12 every year- some have to stay on. I'd say we might get another 5 or 6 newbies this year, maybe two or three next year but i wouldnt expect much more than that. Your World cup squad should have some major depth to it surely. Fekitoa looks the only potential bolter this year perhaps?

I listened to Matson on the radio today. apparently McCaw said he's Bl&^dy hard to tackle.

What about at 8? Read looks right but is short on rugby. There's talk of Kaino at 8 but can Vito be considered starting at 8? I don't see him as genuine back row cover but then again nor is someone like Cane.

Its getting harder and harder to not give B Smith a game at full back for the ABs in my opinion the only thing that Dagg has definitely got over him right now is the distance of his kicking. Whoever of Jane, Dagg, Smith misses out is hard done by.

My concerns are more in the tight forwards where only Whitelock, Retallick, B Franks and Coles are performing well. O Franks, Mealamu and Woodcock are blah right now. Then its all a bit hit and miss with Faumina, Crockett, Toomanga Allen and Thrush. You know the ABs are in trouble when you have a bunch of Wellington tight five players looking good!

Reads playing this week Kia. Is apparently all clear to go. The first test is one they probably have to play Read- a weakened England means a bit of pressure off and a chance to give Read match play for the remaining tests/ year.

Dont think Vitos come on enough but then don't like Kaino at 8 either. Ideally we'd have Read, McCaw and Kaino, with Messam, Cane and Vito as back up at some point. I think thats as good as it gets?

Yeah he's got one match - depending on how much Blackadder plays him - and then the first test. Think Kaino will have to be on the bench which means Cane misses out if McCaw plays and I see that happening if Read is doubtful to play 80.

Messam can cover the backrow but in a way similar to McCaw - not really a specialist cover and people like Luatua are even more makeshift as backrow lock cover.

The backrow is malleable but we still lack genuine specialist cover at 8 and like you Tman I don't think we have the mix to see that changing unless Vito is incorporated which means someone important in the mix is left out.

for me the 1st test match team might be

 1) Woodcock
 2) Mealamu
 3) O.Franks
 4) Retallick
 5) Whitelock
 6) Messam/Kaino (Kaino if read is 100% fit)
 7) Mccaw
 8) Read
 9) Smith
10) Barrett
11) Savea
12) Nonu
13) Smith
14) Smith
15) Jane

16) Flynn
17) Crocket
18) Faumainia
19) bird
20) Kaino/Cane/Messam (Kaino starting 8 if Read is unfit) (Messam if Kaino is starting 6) I rate others more than cane but reckon he will be picked.
21) Perenara
22) Slade/Cruden (if cruden is fit)
23) Fekitoa/Dagg

That's not far off but think Coles will be hooker replacement or even starting and Ben Franks might replace Faumuina and Dagg instead of Jane with Fekitoa on the bench, TKB instead of Perenara and. thrush instead of Bird.

Not my team necessarily but willing to wager those changes are more likely. Cruden is a ? with Slade as well. This round should tell us where he and Read are at.

I'd go with:

1) Woodcock
2) Coles
3) O.Franks
4) Retallick
5) Whitelock
6) Kaino
7) Mccaw
8) Read
9) Smith
10) Barrett
11) Savea
12) Nonu
13) Smith
14) Smith
15) Dagg

Can't see Jane at FB given Smith and Dagg have played there all year and Janes just returned to the wing. I think its Ben Smith or Jane right wing- probably Jane given he's playing ok and Smiths the better sub.

Coles is leading the Hooker race.

But given Englands loss of players Hansen is the type to not be underpinned on any level and might play the even cards game of starting Fekitoa. Its the biggest statement he could make in terms of...'ok, we'll match your <no. of debuts> with...blah blah.

I think he knows one of the possible outcomes is a potential newbie will be all the rave, and he'll want it to come from the AB's- and Fekitoa is the clear fave to fit that bill. In fact hes the only one.

It would also start the Conrad Smith WCup preservation treadmill.

Well it's a very good opportunity to blood Fekitoa against an England side that is expected to get hammered before bringing Smith back for the two tests once they get players back and start to find their feet.

Notch wrote:Well it's a very good opportunity to blood Fekitoa against an England side that is expected to get hammered before bringing Smith back for the two tests once they get players back and start to find their feet.

Agree there Notch. The thing with Fekitoa is he's almost too good to believe given the short time he's had. From spot tackling Conrad Smith earlier and continuing to be strong defensively all season, to being a breathtaking ball carrier (His Bulls try from over half way- regather, turn and rip straight through the Bulls defence to dot under the posts) he's got it all. Hasnt put a foot wrong all season.

Definitely one to watch.

Taylorman wrote:I'd go with:

1) Woodcock
2) Coles
3) O.Franks
4) Retallick
5) Whitelock
6) Kaino
7) Mccaw
8) Read
9) Smith
10) Barrett
11) Savea
12) Nonu
13) Smith
14) Smith
15) Dagg

Can't see Jane at FB given Smith and Dagg have played there all year and Janes just returned to the wing. I think its Ben Smith or Jane right wing- probably Jane given he's playing ok and Smiths the better sub.

Coles is leading the Hooker race.

But given Englands loss of players Hansen is the type to not be underpinned on any level and might play the even cards game of starting Fekitoa. Its the biggest statement he could make in terms of...'ok, we'll match your <no. of debuts> with...blah blah.

I think he knows one of the possible outcomes is a potential newbie will be all the rave, and he'll want it to come from the AB's- and Fekitoa is the clear fave to fit that bill. In fact hes the only one.

It would also start the Conrad Smith WCup preservation treadmill.

Same 15 that I would choose.

I imagine Messam will start with Kaino on the bench

Actually you'd be right there. Messams the incumbent and Hansen's loyal in that respect. And it will make Messam play his heart out knowing Kaino is in the wings...good call Ngan.... Both top players, and both in good form...how can we complain...

Hey fellas, been a while. Been galavanting so apologies for non participation for a while!

Got to keep up with a bit of the Super Rugby which is nice-Canes are the usual hot and cold but a little better this year. Promising though you never know. Jack Lam has been playing bloody well and must be slightly annoying Hansen as his protege Ardie isn't getting that much time on the field. Been impressed with Fekitoa but his lines need a bit of spit and polish and I wouldn't have him and Nonu together. Nonu's distribution is way better but we need a little more vision. Luatua may stand to be the one hard done by as I think he played bloody well last year but against Ireland he showed he wasn't quite physical enough and since England are going to bring that in spades I'd rather see Messam and Kaino. Messam was world class last year and probably deserves the start with Kaino covering 6 and 8. Either way it's good to have some oomph.

Think England will be bloody hard to beat, including the first test, and I'm worried about it. Make no bones about it, they're good enough to beat NZ and win a series. Of course having said that many teams have been good enough but sod all have done it. Hope Brown gets some ball in space-Lancaster's getting them to pass out of the tackle which adds so many more dimensions to their game. Though if Cipriani starts he'll get some traffic all right. They've got a great structure and play to it well like the 2003 team-though not in their class yet. It can be broken down though, and the NZ backs have been pretty ruthless all year which hasn't been the case previously. The locks are key-and if Tuilagi plays midfield that'll open up space. Not really worried about Ashton, he's in a similar mould to Guildford whom I don't rate either. You need some unpredictability about you as a 3/4 and he doesn't have that despite his work ethic. Jane may be on the bench which is crazy but with Smith there you can't leave him out. Can't wait-though I'll miss the bloody second and third tests-anyone know of a rugby pub in Belarus?

Cant help you there Disney...don't even know where Belarus is...what on earth are you doing there? More about Belarus please...  

Good to see you back Disney, but watch out for those Belarus Women shot putters, they might put some steroids in your drink, and try taking advantage of you.

Oh thats Belarus,,,say hi to opta chuk for us will ya disney, speak loudly though, I understanding the hearing is one of the first things to go while...under the influence.

Is there a womens rugby team? I know of a Tighthead prop now available...

Ha yeah if she hadn't given the medal back I'd probably look for it! Just want to visit every country in Europe-that's the last one to tick off. Will be on the lookout for female props-I'm also going to Amsterdam to see Pearl Jam so maybe I'll look for a female 10 with an abundance of "creativity" there...

Jeepers just saw the Tahs Chiefs result. That's a turn up-suits the Canes down to the ground but it's a bit of a worry. Hope the worry about the Canes pack actually performing is proven to be nothing since they're on the up instead of the other NZ packs being on the way down.

disneychilly wrote:Ha yeah if she hadn't given the medal back I'd probably look for it! Just want to visit every country in Europe-that's the last one to tick off. Will be on the lookout for female props-I'm also going to Amsterdam to see Pearl Jam so maybe I'll look for a female 10 with an abundance of "creativity" there...

Jeepers just saw the Tahs Chiefs result. That's a turn up-suits the Canes down to the ground but it's a bit of a worry. Hope the worry about the Canes pack actually performing is proven to be nothing since they're on the up instead of the other NZ packs being on the way down.

Little prem there Disney, J.K.* smashed the Canes forwards to bits on his own tonight.

* Thats Big J.K. as opposed to Sir J.K.

Crusaders are second on the table and got two penalty tries through their forward pack. Breathe easy dc.

Do you have a laptop with you or access to a computer? I can PM you a link if you like. What time is kick off because I'll probably be using the same link if it's 8:30am start here.

aucklandlaurie wrote:

disneychilly wrote:Ha yeah if she hadn't given the medal back I'd probably look for it! Just want to visit every country in Europe-that's the last one to tick off. Will be on the lookout for female props-I'm also going to Amsterdam to see Pearl Jam so maybe I'll look for a female 10 with an abundance of "creativity" there...

Jeepers just saw the Tahs Chiefs result. That's a turn up-suits the Canes down to the ground but it's a bit of a worry. Hope the worry about the Canes pack actually performing is proven to be nothing since they're on the up instead of the other NZ packs being on the way down.

 Little prem there Disney, J.K.* smashed the Canes forwards to bits on his own tonight.

* Thats Big J.K. as opposed to Sir J.K.

Yes typical of the Blues to upset the odds again. I took the blues 13 and over last week instead of this as I knew theyd do it to one of them, the Eden park factor making the diff. AB team named today? Kaino must be named to start now, he's playing better than all 3 loosies at the moment. hansens loyalty to incumbents will be tested here.

Cheers Kia-I know a site or two but thank you anyway. Was thinking of you during the Champions League final-sorry mate.

Crap turns out the worry was justified. As a Canes fan I know how supporters of the French national team feel! Great physicality from the Blues. We just couldn't get any structure whatsoever and from that platform the Blues cut us to pieces. Typical though-we managed to sneak a four try bonus with the pressure off. The Blues will be glad they were accurate with their finishing as teams can often dominate the Canes but come off second best on the scorecard.

Can't wait for the team to be announced. How are the injuries? Saw Savea go off which is a worry.

Not only was Savea going off a concern, but also Tnoy Woodcock not coming out after half time with an injury to the hip.

Not only was Savea going off a concern, but also Tony Woodcock not coming out after half time with an injury to the hip.

Ben Franks and Wyatt are competent loosie replacements if Woodcock is ruled out.


But what about #11? Would we move Jane or Dagg there?

Put Beaudie on the wing he'll be fine.