NZ test side: probables, possibles and bolters.

What a difference a few months makes. The Chiefs looked like the only side to wave the NZ flag for the S15 franchises. (I wonder how much of their dipping fortunes can be attributed to the loss of Cruden.) The Crusaders looked more than their fragile customary slow starts: they looked woeful. As did the Hurricanes, notably on defence. The Blues, Highlanders had their odd moment but lacked consistency.

Winning and losing can become a habit and it seems the Chiefs are experiencing the latter and the Crusaders and Hurricanes the former with the Blues and Highlanders riding a rollercoaster of emotions. The Australian franchises have a lot to be enthusiastic about and SA will be worried about their form in key positions but much like the beginning of the S15 season, it's too early to start making predictions about test form.

What to make of the looming June series against England? What will Hansen and his team be thinking?

For me, the things that will be worrying the wise men the most is flyhalf - will Cruden be fit and if not who will accompany Barrett and who will start - openside - is McCaw equally going to figure and in what role - and front row. In the backs, they have a welcome problem. Apart from Dagg, the backline players look in ominous form. There is a new boy on the blocks in Fekitoa who looks to be making some big plays in the centres. Crotty is your typical home brand no thrills Crusader solid type player that can do a job for you but this Fekitoa has more the excitement of a Piutau about him. Smith is looking near his sniping best but will Hansen want version 2.0 Perenara, who looks in good nick, or stick with the opposites attract of TK? Barrett can come on and make things happen but can he start a test and run a ship like Cruden can? Is there the possibility of Slade filling that role and leaving Barrett to do what he does best? Or will Hansen want to see if Barrett is capable in that starting role and have Slade there as insurance, fulfilling an I've got this, my name is Weepu, Piri Weepu type role?

With a diluted English first test side, will Hansen see this test as an opportunity to experiment? Will he try to use it as an opportunity for Dagg to regain form much like he did in the France tests? Or will he bolder in his experimentation and have Ben Smith at fullback to accommodate a flyer on the wing to accompany Savea? Is there room still for Jane and keep Piutau hungry and learning on the bench or is it time to start him? How many wingers will he select and is there a room for the likes of Halai?

In the forwards, there is much to like and there is an area of doubt. On the positives, the return of Kaino is welcome. A physical presence in the rucks against a physical English backrow will be needed. Where does that leave the likes of Messam and Luatua who looked good at various times last year? Will McCaw, who might not make it back at 7 for the Crusaders, not take on as much as he was last time or will he step back and cover the entire backrow from the bench? Is it time to put more responsibility on Kieran Read's shoulders and make Cane step up even further than last year or is the warhorse still going to lead from the front? Is Kaino genuine cover for 8 or can McCaw take that role or is it time for the return of Vito? Depth at 6 is still not a substitute for depth at 7 or 8. How match fit will McCaw be by June and how much experimentation will be made in the backrow? Lock seems solid with the return of Romano so that leaves the front row. Coles has lots of impact in the loose but is there any room for the veteran Mealamu and if not who is there to replace him. Crockett, Faumuina, the Franks brothers but like Mealamu is there room for Woodcock?

How many players can Hansen have at his disposal? He won't be allowed as many as SL so in which positions does he need to flood and which can he leave more threadbare?

Front row: Crockett, Woodcock, Franks brothers, Mealamu, Coles, Faumuina (7)
Locks : Whitelock, Retallick, Romano (3)
Back Row: Kaino, Luatua, Messam, Read, Cane, McCaw, Kaino (7)
Halfbacks : Smith, Perenara, TK (3)
Flyhalves: Barrett, Slade, Cruden (2)
Centres : Nonu, Smith, Crotty, Fekitoa (4)
Back Three Dagg, Smith, Jane, Savea, Piutau (5)

That makes 31. Who won't make it and who should be there I haven't added.

With the Chiefs its not just Cruden Kia- Latimer, Afeaki, Fruean, Mils, Kerr Barlow- then Hika Elliot and Robinson. Near on half the starting side is out- no other side has that sort of injury carry.

But in terms of your 31, I think it speaks volumes for the form of our top side plus those fringe and returning players, as I would have picked that exact same 31. I think that spells trouble for Eng...and Oz and SA in the RC- we're in a better shape than even last year. What a side...honestly... 

Pulu and ANscombe.

yeah Pulu perhaps instead of either KB or TJP- I prefer him to both actually. Not an Anscombe fan- ok utility and certainly not a 10- can't direct play with authority. Still think Slade is going to be the big mover, with Kaino, versus England,

In the RCand WCup- DC, Cruden, Slade and Barrett at 10? Feels like a repeat of the last two world cups. Do they have whitebaiting in Bath?

Nice one BB! Might have a few protests from the north if Ainscombe was selected! Didn't realise it was so many Tman. Normal to have a slump with so many out.

Pulu impressed me a game I saw him in SA. Burrowing like Mealamu the Mole.

Does anyone know how many Hansen is allowed? 26 is a number I've pulled from nowhere but that leaves 5 players to cull and I wouldn't want to pick who that might be.

Biltong wrote:Pulu and ANscombe.

Who do you think Meyer would start first test Biltong? I know it would be several off your own selection but who do you think his 15 right now is?

There's a good piece on Orana Park if you know what I mean Tman by our good friend. Makes for sobering reading. It's an insight into what could so easily happen if NZ changes its policy of selecting players.

Here's a bolter; Lima Sopoaga.  Very consistent now, good kicker.  Then there's the queue in front of him.

My concern is around Hooker.  Mealamu cannot fight the clock.  I'd suggest this is the best time to blood another hooker.  Dane Coles is a good long term option for me but we need backup...quick.

Indeed we do mintie.

How do you view Rhys Marshall as a hooker? Too soon for him?

Could well be too soon. 22 is young for a hooker: at least the rugby variety.

Just seen this article: http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff-nation/assignments/share-your-news-and-views/9997609/All-Blacks-picks-for-England-tour

Tameifuna is not fit or mobile enough for the AB style of play but could be a Vunipola type player on the bench.

Broadhurst and Tuipolutu get mentioned for the locks.

I'm just blown away by the form of the ABs individually Kia- nonu again last night setting up 3 tries- all differently- the first the long wide pass, the second a chip through and flop on the ball, the third a cut back, run through and offload. Normally at this time of the year we're talking poor form, injuries etc. Nonu, Dagg, A Smith for example all off their games this time last year- all firing now ( Dagg to a lesser extent but last year he was terrible for the Saders).

I don't know if the English fans are paying attention to it but for the entire squad to ALL be playing exceptional rugby at the same time, at this time of the season is very rare indeed.

Plus theres the bonus of guys like Kaino, Slade and now mcCaw returning- the first two looking as good as ever.

Luatua is probably the disappointment if there is one and that might be the Messam, Kaino form getting to him a bit. I dont see him being involved a lot this year such is Kainos form already after two or three matches- perhaps a bit at lock but not as a first choice.

Good to see Cory Jane get in the try scoring mode last week too. With the Hurricanes finding form it makes you feel happy about the backs. TJ Perenara slowly getting decent, Barrett doing really well, Conrad Smith and Savea in fine form there's going to be some real stability in the back line even if DC and Cruden are not available. Add in the form of A Smith, Nonu, B Smith and Piatau and we are looking good at the back.
Bit of a worry in the forwards I reckon with Read and McCaw not 100% and Mealamu and Woodcock getting old and inconsistent,

Nonu's involvement of the first Blues tries were an advertisement of what he had added to his game by coming into the centres. The wide cut out pass to the wing, the stab kick through and the step inside to find support. Killed the Reds' chances with those three plays. Breathtaking to watch.

Looks like all the NZ franchises are bringing the goods this round. McCaw had to step up with Todd out injured and made a good contribution.

You've listed Kaino twice.


Maybe another lock? Or Luatua could cover it

nganboy wrote:Good to see Cory Jane get in the try scoring mode last week too. With the Hurricanes finding form it makes you feel happy about the backs. TJ Perenara slowly getting decent, Barrett doing really well, Conrad Smith and Savea in fine form there's going to be some real stability in the back line even if DC and Cruden are not available. Add in the form of A Smith, Nonu, B Smith and Piatau and we are looking good at the back.
Bit of a worry in the forwards I reckon with Read and McCaw not 100% and Mealamu and Woodcock getting old and inconsistent,

McCaw went fine as usual. Hansen wont be impressed with TJP after that. He makes the mistake of getting pals with the ref through little chit chat then thinks he has permission to start questioning his calls. And not passing to Jane was criminal. Dead cert 5 points.

Aaron Smith is firing anyway. Have to say I'm not a big Kerr Barlow fan either though. Probably go so far as to have Andy Ellis as the back up, or someone new in Pulu, but KB will get the nod probably.

Thought Woodcock was great vs the Reds, his side of the scrum solid as. Fekitoa will make the squad being the only real specialist 13 option, Barrett and Cruden (avail) / Slade covering 10 and goalkicking.

And lastly, I think kia's Crusaders now look the best chance of taking the sxv title, if Crudens absence doesnt secure a home Chiefs playoff. Canes are my faves to watch, just think theyll trip up like the tahs match a couple more times.

Kaino's such a big presence, dally, he put himself there twice.

Home advantage will determine the winner. Thing with the Crusaders is that they seem incapable of getting 4 try bonus points which might come back to bite them in the bum.

Coltman in, Tuipolutu in,
Mealamu out, Dagg out.

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:Kaino's such a big presence, dally, he put himself there twice.

Home advantage will determine the winner. Thing with the Crusaders is that they seem incapable of getting 4 try bonus points which might come back to bite them in the bum.

good point Kia, theyre getting there with huge defence at the moment. Their trademark counter attacking tries arent there anymore.

Starting to feel a bit more positive about June. Looks like the NZ teams are improving as the season progresses. Good wins to the Chiefs, Crusaders and Blues at home. Both the Hurricanes and Highlanders went close away and did some good things at times.

Has anyone mentioned Toomaga-Allen, bolter?

If fit the backline will be the established one i.e A.Smith, Cruden,Savea,C.Smith,Nonu,
B.Smith,Dagg.4Ns Dan Carter is back in the frame the rest are fighting for bench places.
Forwards front row The Brothers Grim,Woodcock,Crockett,Mealamu,Coles,possibly Corey
Flynn.Locks Sam Whitelock,Retalick,Romano,plus Luatua as a utilitylock//8/6,
Back Row,Kaino,Read,McCaw.

Reads out again for the weekend. Same concussion related issue.

Good on Blackadder. He'd be tempted to get his star on but he's not taking chances with two knocks in a month.

Sounded like a mutual decision after listening to Blackadder on the radio today. Coach made the call but he said that he could tell by the body language and see it in Read's eyes that he was relieved that he wasn't pressured into playing when he still didn't feel quite right. Glad to see coaches acting like this.

Probably had Shag standing by him with a baseball bat when he made the decision but nonetheless commendable. He's too important for NZ rugby.

Just read 31 make the June squad and 35 for the pre-test training squad. As I put Kaino twice I'd suspect Hansen will place another lock in there.

Ardie Savea might continue his spongebob role in the training camp - he starts for the Canes this week - and that camp might have a few bolters to give them a taste and also reward them for their form.

Piutau looked to have a serious injury today. If he's broken his leg or wrecked his knee, then he won't be around next month.

Not good news for Piutau as he was a rising rookie last year. Could've been experimented with at 13 if not for the rise of Fekitoa this year. Similarly Jane has been in good form for the Canes so the loss is not felt as acutely as other positions might.

Here's an article with a few bolters sprinkled through and the prediction for the 35-man training camp squad: http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/all-blacks/10030327/Hansen-poised-to-unveil-newcomers-in-squad

Good to see Messam rise to the competition for places by putting in a great performance against Kaino. Hansen will be happy that the best is being brought out of quite a few players. Even Nonu is in Super form!

Andre Taylor?

Piutau's got a grade 2 ligament strain, which probably means he's out of the England tour. Read's concussion issues haven't resolved themselves. I think there's a chance he might miss the series as well.

Steve Hansen names his 35 man National Training Group on Monday,Piutau will not be among them.

Think there's time for Read bc. But not for Piutau out for two months. That strengthens the case for Dagg's inclusion.

Will Hansen want to keep Ben Smith where he did the damage last year or will he look to the experience of Jane who looks in good form? Dagg's attack may not be up to Smith's but the Saders' tactics don't help that cause. Plus Dagg has a more prodigious boot than Smith.

Further infield, I imagine the bench option is more likely to be a centre as two of the backthree are interchangeable but again will Hansen plump for solidity in Crotty or impact as in Fekitoa. Same question for first five: Slade or Barrett? Not sure Cruden will be fit in time.

Interesting backline dilemmas for Hansen. Form vs experience. Who will prevail?

Romano's out broken ankle

So I think the unavailable list is currently:

Piatau: Out - Injured
Romano: Out - Injured
Carter: Out - Sabbatical
Cruden: Possible - Due back from injury
Read: Probable - ongoing concussion

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:Think there's time for Read bc. But not for Piutau out for two months. That strengthens the case for Dagg's inclusion.

Will Hansen want to keep Ben Smith where he did the damage last year or will he look to the experience of Jane who looks in good form? Dagg's attack may not be up to Smith's but the Saders' tactics don't help that cause. Plus Dagg has a more prodigious boot than Smith.

Further infield, I imagine the bench option is more likely to be a centre as two of the backthree are interchangeable but again will Hansen plump for solidity in Crotty or impact as in Fekitoa. Same question for first five: Slade or Barrett? Not sure Cruden will be fit in time.

Interesting backline dilemmas for Hansen. Form vs experience. Who will prevail?

Dagg will definitely be there. His forms ok with the saders and that up and under of his that goes about 30 meters has become critical as an attacking option plus Hansen knows he's one of those that improve in test matches- can't beat real test experience.

Liking Slade more and more every week Kia- we havnt seen him this confident- ever- and he's getting stuck in to everything. His goal kicking must be the best of the tournament in terms of % as well- strikes the ball beautifully. Barrett has a bit more flair but I think Slade ticks a couple more important boxes- Defence one of them. I'm happy with either knowing both are going to play anyway.

The AB backline form is by far the best I've ever seen it in sxv at this time of the year- all of them in virtually match winning roles every week...

It's great to see Slade with confidence, Tman and his defence and goal kicking make him a starter if Cruden isn't up to match fitness. He had a horror run with injuries and looked like he wasn't enjoying his footy for NZ but imagine the current AB environment and the positive effect it will have on Slade. He's been instrumental in the rise of the Crusaders' form but get him involved in that current NZ set up and he'll be an even better player for it.

That NZ backline is going to be humming. The key is can the forwards provide a solid platform for the backs to show off that form?

Five new faces in the squad: http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/all-blacks/10035990/Five-newcomers-named-in-ABs-training-squad

Perhaps another prop instead of another loosie but I guess Luatua is covering lock and loosie even though I don't see him as the former. Smith and Perenara are much of a sameness.

Now we just sit back and watch attrition from injuries whittle this down to a playing 23.

Yes Luatua lucky, and I may as well say now rather than later, I do have concerns defensively with Fekitoa.

Nonu is defensively suspect too Laurie and Smith takes on that responsibility. Nonu and Fekitoa will never partner one another so nothing really changes on that front.

Kia - I just can't see how Slade, if Cruden is out, will get a start over Barratt? Barratt is by far the better long term prospect of the three and is outright a better player than Cruden as it stands. We need to give the boy a chance I feel...

That may be but he is suspect defensively or at least can be and I prefer Slade as a goal kicker and controller of the game with the boot. Obviously Barrett on attack is freakishly quick but at this stage I see no reason to change his impact role from the bench when defences are tired and gaps are more easily exploited. In time he will work on specific parts of his game but as a sub he offers cover at 10 and fullback.

If you'd asked me at the beginning of the season should Slade start ahead of Barrett if Cruden got injured Id have slapped you back into reality. But Slade is on fire and whilst Barrett is also doing well, I still think Slade is being noticed for all the right reasons especially on defence and that will be key against England.

Dont get me wrong, I think it is great that Slade has recovered from where he was in 2011 but the AB's old adage of "if he's good enough, he's old enough" applies here to Barratt.

Yes he's suspect on defence but he can when he wants to. Slade has a glass jaw and is horribly prone to injury. Barratt is a top notch kicker.

Barratt should be given the chance to run things

So is Cruden suspect to injury as is Carter.

It remains to be seen whether Slade can make the jump from Super to test rugby but his form warrants at least an opportunity. Of course Barrett can and has done a job for NZ starting at 10 but with Carter as an unknown this year and Cruden's fitness in doubt why not see if another can fill that role? Competition for places is healthy. Look at how Messam played against Kaino. jane's beating down the selectors' door. Let's see what Slade can bring out in Barrett and v.v. I say that as a huge Barrett fan.

Yup, I watched slade in the weekend and for the first time thought this guy could make it again. He was flakey in the past in the ABs as he seemed really nervous. But he seemed to back himself more so I'd give him a shot. He sniped gaps and ran forward. I like Barrett to, but there's still something I'm not sure of. Probably what I was feeling with early Cruden and the old Slade. End of the day, NZ rugby is humming right now. Wonder if SL is watching super rugby and thinking, mmmm.

We can probably discount Carter. Cruden is just returning so is iffy. If I had a choice as to starting Slade or Barrett who do we want as insurance or impact. Which player are we more likely to need against a depleted England side particularly up first? Frankly I trust Barrett to do both as he's done both. Slade came on for Cruden in Sydney and steadied the ship. I haven't seen him start a test like Cruden and look authoritative. Barrett has convinced me more with his running than his kicking from hand at test level. Slade is more of an unknown for me at test level and for that reason we stand to learn more about him by starting him than we would Barrett. Time will tell how Hansen and co feel on the latter. I'm just hoping this fizz continues and we don't get fizzed out or injured between now and June.

Predictable mainly,at last we may see the elusive T.J. Perenara,Cruden unlikely to
start First match,Read has similar problems to those McCaw suffered a couple of
seasons back.
Slade deserves his chance after his injury problems solid,dependable and a
Goal kicking machine.
Sad to see Bleyendahl and Flynn leaving Crusaders for Europe but predictable if
short of game time.
Flynn was another blighted by injury and would have been my back up choice
this season.Andy Ellis is currently as good as any 9 in NZ but his chance sadly has gone
interesting to see Vito back in the mix.

Ellis isn't as good as Smith- especially at this very moment- Smiths on fire- Alan but he is second in my opinion. I'm off KB and Perenara now. They're both missing elements at even sxv level for me so I'd have Smith and Ellis all year if I'm honest but that flies in the face of bilding new depth. Ellis is average at test level but ticks a lot of other boxes- reliability, experience, familiarity etc.

Thanks for not picking Anscombe, we'll have your weak and weary hand me downs   

makes a change for another country to benefit from an import

aucklandlaurie wrote: Now we just sit back and watch attrition from injuries whittle this down to a playing 23.

Yes Luatua lucky, and I may as well say now rather than later, I do have concerns defensively with Fekitoa.

Having watched Fekitoa play every game for us (The Highlanders) this season I dont see how he couldnt be named in the squad. Hes been impressive in most facets of the game. He runs straight, can draw and pass and is strong in the ruck and maul area. He hasnt made too many c*ck-ups that I can remember. I could be wrong. Generally after halftime the beer consumption tends to increase dramatically.

Id be more concerned about Coltmans ability to hit a lineout jumper.

As for Nonu's (perceived by some posters on 606) defensive frailties Id have to say that you dont earn 80+ test caps in the ABs midfield and be a turnstile!

Scratch wrote:Thanks for not picking Anscombe, we'll have your weak and weary hand me downs   

makes a change for another country to benefit from an import

He was close, just coming in after Benji on the list...

(play him at Fullback however...)

Taylorman wrote:

Scratch wrote:Thanks for not picking Anscombe, we'll have your weak and weary hand me downs   

makes a change for another country to benefit from an import

He was close, just coming in after Benji on the list...

(play him at Fullback however...)

He'll do well at Cardiff at full back, 1/2penny is off to France so just in time. As for the international team nah.