six nations 2014

First topic message reminder :

this is just a prediction thread how the table will end with how many games won . mine is
England 4 games won
Ireland 3
France 3
Wales 3
Scotland 1
Italy 1
this is prob mathematical incorrect but my head would explode if i tried to work it out . dont think we see a grand slam this year

IronMike wrote:Indeed Ireland could win if they play like they did in the first half vs Wales last year and NZ this year, but I don't think they can maintain that intensity for the full 80 minutes which lets sides able creep back into the game. They're also missing SOB who is a key player for them.

Very true.   

Also, just look at the Leinster game against Northampton to see how big a loss O'Brien (and Healy) are.

Haven't England got 9/10 starters currently injured? Can't see us doing much if we start the tourney like this.

Can anyone shed some lights on his or her team list of injured players ?

For France, Fritz will be missing following his motorbike accident. Ouedraogo and Lopez are also out. that's about it...Also PSA will be naming his 30 men elite player list on the 6th of january. Such players will be limited to 30 games per year (excluding t14 and hc playoffs). He will also get an extra week of prep prior the 6N.

Touch wood, Scotland are currently only missing Visser from strongest XV.



Most concerned about Ireland first up, if they play anywhere near the intensity they showed against NZ we'll be in for a long afternoon.



Having England & France at Murrayfield is always our best chance of winning, especially considering the current state of the pitch.



Italy away is tough, for any team but beaten them the twice in last 12 months so should be confident.

George Carlin wrote:As an interested neutral, is there any way that Lancaster's team selections could scupper England's chances of winning? I keep reading about the various exciting fly half (Burns, Ford, Cips) and centre (take your pick) options available to SL but he seems to be wedded to Farrell and be unwilling to try different centre combinations (I get the sense that anyone vaguely competent and safe to partner 36 will do and SL is just treading water until Manu comes back).

I would also put England as favourites but only if good selections are made.

Potentially yes.

If Eng stick with Dickson, Farrell, Barritt and Tomkins etc then the forwards will need to win the games for us.

Yep, Ireland without Healy and O'Brien will not be the same team.

BigTrevsbigmac wrote:

Jhamer25 wrote:

BigTrevsbigmac wrote:

funnyExiledScot wrote:I think it'll be between the same two sides as last year, England and Wales. I think England will have learnt a lot from last year, so I'm going to tip them to win it. Don't think it'll be a grand slam though, and wouldn't be surprised if it came down to points difference.

Saint-Andre has made a mess of France, I can't see Ireland propering without Healy and SOB, Italy are mince (Tesco value) and Scotland are dark horses of the Shetland pony variety.

Agree with this but England have the edge up front now particularly with the new scrum laws. I don't rate Wales half backs and if they are missing JD2 then there is little between the backs. So with home advantage and the above (biased?) logic I'm fairly hopeful.

I do think England can do well but they are not going to win the Six Nations up front or at the scrum. if Corbisiero can stay fit then yes England can be a threat in the scrum (but will he be fit, or is he back by then). Marler and Vunipolo won't cut it, they might prove me wrong and Marler is the better option but their are very strong tight heads in the other nations.
Scotland, Wales and France (all who have dominant scrums) all have big packs as well and will all be pretty matched. England need to play to there strengths which is at the break down, if they can do that then they have a good chance of winning.

Yes JHamer25 I pretty much agree with that. But taking away the hit appears to have taken away the 'penalty weapon' if I may call it that, of some tight heads (Adam Jones?) & I am happy even without Corbs that England can cope with the other nations packs at scrum time & agree that our strength is at the breakdown particularly with very mobile locks such as Launchbury & Lawes.
I would be a lot happier with Wade & Yarde available on the wings but other nations also have significant injuries and of course there is still plenty of time for further ones.

Yep very true. These new laws have seemed to really affect players like Adam Jones and Ryan Grant, both haven't been their dominant self's when i have seen them.
Laucnhebry is the best thing to happen to England in years, such a good player. All thought I would pick Parling ahead of Lawes (i think he is over rated personally), Parling is a work horse and is great at the line out.
I don't think Lancaster is a big fan of Wade; i like Lancaster and believe he is a very good coach but i just don't understand what he, other coaches sand fans see in Chris Ashton. Wade and Yarde would be a god shout, there is no experienced world class winger (just a few very good club wingers) in the English team now and it's time they look to the younger players like Wade and Yarde to build on

In the traditional 6N spirit of everyone getting their excuses in early, I would also be interested in knowing which players from each nation who were likely to start in a best matchday 23 are likely to be injured.

For Scotland, I would say that Tim Visser (broken leg, definitely out), Peter Horne (ACL tear, definitely out), Mark Bennett (cracked toe, might be back), Jonny Gray (twisted ankle, might be back) and Al Kellock (muscle tear and tendon damage, definitely out) are the biggest injury losses. Tommy Seymour is also carrying an injury but early twittering suggest that it isn't serious.

Jhamer25 wrote:

BigTrevsbigmac wrote:

Jhamer25 wrote:

BigTrevsbigmac wrote:

funnyExiledScot wrote:I think it'll be between the same two sides as last year, England and Wales. I think England will have learnt a lot from last year, so I'm going to tip them to win it. Don't think it'll be a grand slam though, and wouldn't be surprised if it came down to points difference.

Saint-Andre has made a mess of France, I can't see Ireland propering without Healy and SOB, Italy are mince (Tesco value) and Scotland are dark horses of the Shetland pony variety.

Agree with this but England have the edge up front now particularly with the new scrum laws. I don't rate Wales half backs and if they are missing JD2 then there is little between the backs. So with home advantage and the above (biased?) logic I'm fairly hopeful.

I do think England can do well but they are not going to win the Six Nations up front or at the scrum. if Corbisiero can stay fit then yes England can be a threat in the scrum (but will he be fit, or is he back by then). Marler and Vunipolo won't cut it, they might prove me wrong and Marler is the better option but their are very strong tight heads in the other nations.
Scotland, Wales and France (all who have dominant scrums) all have big packs as well and will all be pretty matched. England need to play to there strengths which is at the break down, if they can do that then they have a good chance of winning.

Yes JHamer25 I pretty much agree with that. But taking away the hit appears to have taken away the 'penalty weapon' if I may call it that, of some tight heads (Adam Jones?) & I am happy even without Corbs that England can cope with the other nations packs at scrum time & agree that our strength is at the breakdown particularly with very mobile locks such as Launchbury & Lawes.
I would be a lot happier with Wade & Yarde available on the wings but other nations also have significant injuries and of course there is still plenty of time for further ones.

Yep very true. These new laws have seemed to really affect players like Adam Jones and Ryan Grant, both haven't been their dominant self's when i have seen them.
Laucnhebry is the best thing to happen to England in years, such a good player. All thought I would pick Parling ahead of Lawes (i think he is over rated personally), Parling is a work horse and is great at the line out.
I don't think Lancaster is a big fan of Wade; i like Lancaster and believe he is a very good coach but i just don't understand what he, other coaches sand fans see in Chris Ashton. Wade and Yarde would be a god shout, there is no experienced world class winger (just a few very good club wingers) in the English team now and it's time they look to the younger players like Wade and Yarde to build on

Parling is likely to be still be injured for at least some of the 6Ns from what I remember. Lawes is really beginning to fulfill his promise. Perhaps there was a stage when he was disappointing (and suffering from various injuries) but I don't think he's overrated at all now.

Lancaster was going to pick Wade and Yarde against Argentina but they both got injured.

George Carlin wrote:In the traditional 6N spirit of everyone getting their excuses in early, I would also be interested in knowing which players from each nation who were likely to start in a best matchday 23 are likely to be injured.

For Scotland, I would say that Tim Visser (broken leg, definitely out), Peter Horne (ACL tear, definitely out), Mark Bennett (cracked toe, might be back), Jonny Gray (twisted ankle, might be back) and Al Kellock (muscle tear and tendon damage, definitely out) are the biggest injury losses. Tommy Seymour is also carrying an injury but early twittering suggest that it isn't serious.

For Ireland, our current injury list is

Healy, Best, Ryan, SOB, Murray, Bowe, Earls, McFadden, Zebo, Sherry, Ferris, Strauss

Those in bold would make Ireland's match day 23

Best and Murray should be back for the start of the 6 nations, however I'm not sure if they will play against Scotland, as for the rest, we should know more in a week or two. SOB looks to be out for the whole tournament which is a big blow but we have Chris Henry,Tommy O’Donnell and Jordi Murphy to cover

On a side note Jordi Murphy plays both 7 and 8 watch out for him

Of the Ulster boys listed - Bowe and Best will be back Ferris won't.
Hopefully some Munster and Leinster posters can give updates on their players
SOB is obviously out

Best may be back for Montpellier this Friday, apparently. Hope they don't rush him back in, hat would be silly. A broken arm is a broken arm.

George Carlin wrote:In the traditional 6N spirit of everyone getting their excuses in early, I would also be interested in knowing which players from each nation who were likely to start in a best matchday 23 are likely to be injured.

For Scotland, I would say that Tim Visser (broken leg, definitely out), Peter Horne (ACL tear, definitely out), Mark Bennett (cracked toe, might be back), Jonny Gray (twisted ankle, might be back) and Al Kellock (muscle tear and tendon damage, definitely out) are the biggest injury losses. Tommy Seymour is also carrying an injury but early twittering suggest that it isn't serious.

I assume you're talking about Scotland A??

funnyExiledScot wrote:

George Carlin wrote:In the traditional 6N spirit of everyone getting their excuses in early, I would also be interested in knowing which players from each nation who were likely to start in a best matchday 23 are likely to be injured.

For Scotland, I would say that Tim Visser (broken leg, definitely out), Peter Horne (ACL tear, definitely out), Mark Bennett (cracked toe, might be back), Jonny Gray (twisted ankle, might be back) and Al Kellock (muscle tear and tendon damage, definitely out) are the biggest injury losses. Tommy Seymour is also carrying an injury but early twittering suggest that it isn't serious.

I assume you're talking about Scotland A??

In that context, I would be talking about Scotland Ladies 3rd XV. Scott Johnson, on the other hand... 

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:I honestly cant see past France to win this years. England big problems come from injuries and away fixtures, Wales from the utter turmoil their club game is in and players minds being diverted not to mention the Lions hangover excuses. Plus its about time they gave us a good laugh by finishing 4/5th again. Scotland and Italy are simply not good enough to be in contention.
Ireland ..just not that good and really need to get a center partnership sorted out.

France 5 (devalued)
Ireland 3
England 3
Scotland 2
Wales 2
Italy 0


I really dont see this being a vintage 6 nations.

Having just seen the National Team training squad for France for this years 6 Nations they dont have the depth they have had in previous after Lion's Tours.  For me they still have some top draw players but the squad as a whole is not looking to good.  Props seem to be a real issue for concern.  I would put a serious question mark at 9 & 10 for France as well.  Those are key positions for any team and I dont think they are good enough to win this years 6 nations.

I'd still install Wales as favourites going into the tournament.  Ireland could really have a good season this year.  England might suffer from the injury list they are accumulating.  My view its probably looking like this (although the top 3 could be be seperated by a single win or lose with any of those 3 winning it):

1. Wales
2. Ireland
3. England
4. Scotland
5. France
6. Italy

England need to get past France away then momentum should take us through.

France are currently favs for our first game & England are favs for the triple crown. I think that's about right. But..........

BigTrevsbigmac wrote:England need to get past France away then momentum should take us through.

France are currently favs for our first game & England are favs for the triple crown. I think that's about right. But..........

Favourites? Based on what…the usual 6 Nations England hype….sounds like you have the 2014 Slam T shirts on order already

They're playing Ireland and Wales at home. They have a decent record in Paris.

But still..

English fans showing confidence shall be tarred and feathered.

England fans should not be showing confidence or optimism.
It is fundamentally un-English.

As an Irishman I would say England can be confident, fair enough Ireland and Wales have the better backs but England have the best pack and forwards do win games.

Looking at the French squad I don't think England have much to fear, the French will most likely be using an untried fly-half so England should have the advantage there, however France do have home advantage.

If England can win there first match they should be in a good place. Wales and Ireland are the unknown and I think England's prospects will largely depend on how well both play, on form I think it's between Ireland and Wales. Both teams have a few injury's but most should be back playing for their games with England.

To what extent are people taking this past year's internationals into account?

I had to remind myself about who had played whom this year:

England

Consur XV 21 - 41 England
Argentina 3 - 32 England
Argentina 26 - 51 England  
England 20 - 13 Australia
England 31 - 12 Argentina
England 22 - 30 New Zealand  

France

New Zealand 23 - 13 France
New Zealand 30 - 0 France
New Zealand 24 - 9 France
France 19 - 26 New Zealand
France 38 - 18 Tonga
France 10 - 19 South Africa

Scotland

Scotland 17 - 27 Samoa
South Africa 30 - 17 Scotland
Scotland 30 - 29 Italy
Scotland 42 - 17 Japan
Scotland 0 - 28 South Africa
Scotland 15 - 21 Australia

Wales

Japan 18 - 22 Wales
Japan 23 - 8 Wales
Wales 15 - 24 South Africa
Wales 40 - 6 Argentina
Wales 17 - 7 Tonga
Wales 26 - 30 Australia

Ireland

USA 12 - 15 Ireland
Canada 14 - 40 Ireland
Ireland 40 - 9 Samoa
Ireland 15 - 32 Australia
Ireland 22 - 24 New Zealand*  

Italy

South Africa 44 - 10 Italy
Samoa 39 - 10 Italy  
Italy 20 - 50 Australia
Italy 37 - 31 Fiji
Italy 14 - 19 Argentina

*

Does this change anybody's thinking? Or are we basing form entirely on the Lions? That's not a WUM - a genuine question.

I think that this just about supports my 'Ireland as one to watch' theory, although I am re-thinking how strong France might be based on the above.

George Carlin wrote:
Does this change anybody's thinking? Or are we basing form entirely on the Lions? That's not a WUM - a genuine question.

I think that this just about supports my 'Ireland as one to watch' theory, although I am re-thinking how strong France might be based on the above.

Ireland were smashed by an Aussie side that have hardly been great. They had a good performance against NZ but I don't think they'll challenge in this year's 6Ns, especially without SOB and Healy. Sexton's money-grab in France isn't working out too well either.

doctor_grey wrote:England fans should not be showing confidence or optimism.
It is fundamentally un-English.

Funny, clever and short. Possibly one of the best comments I have read on 606 lol. I applaud you Sir  

On a serious note the 6 Nations is always tight. England still hold a threat. The only issue I have is that I don't think Wales fear them at all these days. Sometimes you need that fear to help you beat those kind of teams at home.

I don't think home advantage is that big in the 6 nations. If anything it's usually extra pressure on the home team as they don't want to lose in front of their home fans. When do the squads officially get announced by?

George Carlin wrote:To what extent are people taking this past year's internationals into account?

I had to remind myself about who had played whom this year:

England

Consur XV 21 - 41 England
Argentina 3 - 32 England
Argentina 26 - 51 England  
England 20 - 13 Australia
England 31 - 12 Argentina
England 22 - 30 New Zealand  

France

New Zealand 23 - 13 France
New Zealand 30 - 0 France
New Zealand 24 - 9 France
France 19 - 26 New Zealand
France 38 - 18 Tonga
France 10 - 19 South Africa

Scotland

Scotland 17 - 27 Samoa
South Africa 30 - 17 Scotland
Scotland 30 - 29 Italy
Scotland 42 - 17 Japan
Scotland 0 - 28 South Africa
Scotland 15 - 21 Australia

Wales

Japan 18 - 22 Wales
Japan 23 - 8 Wales
Wales 15 - 24 South Africa
Wales 40 - 6 Argentina
Wales 17 - 7 Tonga
Wales 26 - 30 Australia

Ireland

USA 12 - 15 Ireland
Canada 14 - 40 Ireland
Ireland 40 - 9 Samoa
Ireland 15 - 32 Australia
Ireland 22 - 24 New Zealand*  

Italy

South Africa 44 - 10 Italy
Samoa 39 - 10 Italy  
Italy 20 - 50 Australia
Italy 37 - 31 Fiji
Italy 14 - 19 Argentina

*

Does this change anybody's thinking? Or are we basing form entirely on the Lions? That's not a WUM - a genuine question.

I think that this just about supports my 'Ireland as one to watch' theory, although I am re-thinking how strong France might be based on the above.

It's difficult to read anything into the form book really. The 6 Nations is unique in so many respects.

With regards to France the 2 telling factors for me are:-

To many games played already by their leading French players. Don't be surprised to the a unfit, unprepared and disjointed side.

Also the quality of the squad is suffering from their league. Toulouse are still the flag ship for French rugby but the current shift in even their foreign policy will hamper France in the long run. For me France is really lacking in the Prop department. I'm still surprised to see Mas in there because his stock is falling rapidly and I cant see him making the 2015 world cup. Clearly the French coach is under pressure and not building a team for the World Cup.

I'd be more inclined to look at results between the 6 nations teams to give a better indication of performance. Wales for example have a good track record against England & Ireland in recent seasons so wont be daunted by playing them. There seems to be a hoodoo on Wales playing SH sides because of our result records against those particular sides.

Equally I don't think England will be fearing anyone either with the home games they have. It all depends in my view how they deal with last years mauling by the Welsh. If they have learned from it and use it as a motivator that could be a brilliant game.

Ireland for me are always shrouded in mystery. Can be brilliant one day, poor the next. It's inconsistency that has cost Ireland dearly at times. As always though Ireland can and usually do win a few games but it remains to be seen if they can string 5 good matches together.

Scotland for me are building well. The pack is always uncompromising. The back play has been a problem over the years. They do have some real talent coming through though so it will be interesting to see if they can build further given some of the other nations have more experienced backlines.

Italy will have their work cut out for them. The problem they have is that the 6 nations is such a high standard. I'm sure they will manage an upset but I don't think they will be able to string enough results together to really challenge.

As always though, the 6 Nations is the hardest tournament in World rugby to predict. Easily my favourite tournament.

WM, the unfit/unprepared excuse wont be acceptable this year as they have 2 weeks of preparation end january.
Regarding your 2nd point it goes both ways: what incentive is there for the likes of Toulouse to develop french talent if they cannot play their internationals more than 19 times a year! Who's gonna watch them? In my opinion the compromise reach between the ffr and lnr will be detrimental to french rugby on the long run and does not adress the real issue that is poor youngster training. You cant just blame clubs for everything, they are the heart of french rugby.

Agree on the prop lack of depht although am more worried about LH now (Slimani should take over on the right side)

Scratch wrote:

BigTrevsbigmac wrote:England need to get past France away then momentum should take us through.

France are currently favs for our first game & England are favs for the triple crown. I think that's about right. But..........

Favourites? Based on what…the usual 6 Nations England hype….sounds like you have the 2014 Slam T shirts on order already

Calm down Scratch. It's based on gambling odds (oddschecker)

Yes I am being very 'unEnglish' but I was born in Cornwall   

After last season then Wales' AI form is not worth taking into account, on the injury front our biggest (and only confirmed) injury at the moment is JD.

A few are carrying knocks or taken knocks of late and few are off form so who knows.

bedfordwelsh wrote:After last season then Wales' AI form is not worth taking into account, on the injury front our biggest (and only confirmed) injury at the moment is JD.

A few are carrying knocks or taken knocks of late and few are off form so who knows.

I think Roberts would have been in contention at 12?

Trev,

He hasn't been ruled out has he? I know he's taken a knock but not heard anything else?

bedfordwelsh wrote:Trev,

He hasn't been ruled out has he? I know he's taken a knock but not heard anything else?

Bedford - Yes your right fair enough,however, JD2 is a significant loss to Wales maybe even more than Manu for England. Roberts will have had very little game time even if he comes back soon & he will be playing in a very poor side at the moment.
Anyway, fingers crossed in the coming weeks for no more injuries to any potential players.

JD is a huge loss, he was on top form last season and seemed to have continued it at beginning of this.

If Roberts is out as well or just coming back then I hope that one or both of Williams or Allen are fit as they both looked good in the games they played.

Do hope we give North a run at centre sometime even if he doesn't start a game there.

France have left out Trinh Duc and Michalak from their squad

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:France have left out Trinh Duc and Michalak from their squad

Yes, that's interesting. Fearless Fred hardly played this season I think and I understand that FTD has been having consistent stinkers. If young Plisson gets injured, what the hell are they going to do?