6N Predictions

First topic message reminder :

Now that the AIs have concluded (Wales V Aus excepted) do you see the 6Ns 2014 finishing any different to 2013?

For me the immediate answer is NO.

Wales still have the strongest team, but if they lose to Aus then their confidence may take a hit. But they can match any side up front and have more skill and nouse in the backs than the others. Much depends on player fitness, for all sides, but if Jamie Roberts and Jon Davies are fit then Wales will be in a good place. Maybe no grand slam as Ireland and England are both away but still overall winners for me.

England may have found a world class pack and a hard edge up front, but they are no where near finding any attacking backs who can score tries. Plenty to prove and much depends on whether Manu returns and if and how Yarde and Wade might go? France away first up is crucial. Ireland and Wales at home is nice but both those teams have a good recent record there.

Ireland showed some fire yesterday, but I hope they do not follow the same pattern as England last year. One good performance against the All Blacks does not mean that similar performances will follow. POC is essential and needs to stay fit and they could be in the mix, but expect 2nd or 3rd.

France for me will continue to underachieve as long as PSA remains in charge. With their talent pool their recent record should be so much better and I think they will be mid table again.

Scotland - no change really. Decent pack and useless backs. Similar to England in that regard but just at a lower level overall. They can turn sides over at home on a nasty day and may do that to England this year, but their inability to score tries is such that they will battle for the wooden spoon again.

Italy - similar to Scotland with a decent pack and not much in the backs. Wooden spoon favourites.

Overall I see no change to the 6N table from last year. Do you agree or disagree?

Ireland have never beaten New Zealand, didnt count for much in the Irish performance?

I get what you're saying but over the next few years I'd be surprised if Italy dont take Englands scalp or make a real fist of it every time, the games have been pretty close recently.

Wales vs England vs France for the title, all teams to drop a game at least, points difference for the title again.

Think Wales will be in a better place come the 6ns for all these injuries, we really are starting to develop some strength in depth, its just not consistent enough across the park. We've also sen some development in the gameplan, which is what has really pleased me the most.

That's been a big plus, the willingness to attack from deep if it's on.

It may not be relevant at all this time but France have done very well the year after a Lions tour recently:

2002 Winners (Grand Slam)
2006 Winners
2010 Winners (Grand Slam)
2014 ??

it be between England and Wales but i can't see Wales winning at HQ again plus the English be wanting revenge . France who knows . Ireland if they can play like that the first half against New Zealand they would win the world cup never mind six nations . Scotland my second team because my girlfriend half Scottish and i hope they get a couple of wins . Italy well lets hope they finally beat England and hand the championship to Wales on points

SecretFly wrote:...You see when people talk of the Lions and what it might do to sides that engaged in it a good six months after it concludes, those people are talking of the classic old amateur days.... not this world and its professionalism...

It's exactly this world and professionalism. In the professional era, France have won every tournament which follows a Lions tour.

You can argue over whether we are seeing correlation or causation, but no-one's harking back to the amateur era when they make that observation,

Predicting yet another bounce back for France is just cliche nowadays. I know better than to rule it out but if ever there was a time for the French not to capitalise on a Lions tour (Slam every other year up to now) it would appear to be now. They've gone from erratic under Lievremont to consistently poor under PSA. I count 7 victories in total under him. Against a resurgent Ireland under Schmidt, Wales in Cardiff and England, the team that has France's number more often than not, Les Bleus have their work cut out to say the least.

Rugby Fan wrote:

SecretFly wrote:...You see when people talk of the Lions and what it might do to sides that engaged in it a good six months after it concludes, those people are talking of the classic old amateur days.... not this world and its professionalism...

It's exactly this world and professionalism. In the professional era, France have won every tournament which follows a Lions tour.

You can argue over whether we are seeing correlation or causation, but no-one's harking back to the amateur era when they make that observation,

That continually suggests that all through 6N history, the quality was always with Wales, England and possibly Ireland and that the opportunism was always with France.  
Just don't buy it.  
You could as easily say that in the year or two leading to a Lions tour, the Irish, Scottish, Welsh and English players want to put their hand up for Lions inclusion and are therefore playing above themselves with a carrot infront of them - and making life tough for France in those years. You could argue that France are usually better than them except for when Lions tours approach?

You could use that argument every bit as much as saying France slide in there when other teams are suffering.  And I still say the upsurge in France after a Lions tour might just as well be them with suddenly a carrot in front of their eyes - namely a coming WC.  The routine is the same... WC follows Lions; Lions follows WC.  You see patterns, I see patterns.

Has anyone mentioned that France historically do very well after a Lions Tour?

I'm tipping France because, historically, they tend to do very well in the year following a Lions Tour.

SecretFly wrote:

Rugby Fan wrote:

SecretFly wrote:...You see when people talk of the Lions and what it might do to sides that engaged in it a good six months after it concludes, those people are talking of the classic old amateur days.... not this world and its professionalism...

It's exactly this world and professionalism. In the professional era, France have won every tournament which follows a Lions tour.

You can argue over whether we are seeing correlation or causation, but no-one's harking back to the amateur era when they make that observation,

That continually suggests that all through 6N history, the quality was always with Wales, England and possibly Ireland and that the opportunism was always with France.  
Just don't buy it.  
You could as easily say that in the year or two leading to a Lions tour, the Irish, Scottish, Welsh and English players want to put their hand up for Lions inclusion and are therefore playing above themselves with a carrot infront of them - and making life tough for France in those years.  You could argue that France are usually better than them except for when Lions tours approach?

You could use that argument every bit as much as saying France slide in there when other teams are suffering.  And I still say the upsurge in France after a Lions tour might just as well be them with suddenly a carrot in front of their eyes - namely a coming WC.  The routine is the same... WC follows Lions; Lions follows WC.  You see patterns, I see patterns.

I see color bars when I come.

Notch wrote:Has anyone mentioned that France historically do very well after a Lions Tour?

I'm tipping France because, historically, they tend to do very well in the year following a Lions Tour.

Notch, where did you hear about this!?! That's a revelation.  Why hasn't anyone brought it up before.

 


I think this might be the year that trend is broken. Top14 is an attritional league and many of the marquee names are now foreign, not domestic, names.  While the french aren't to be written off, the recent issues of not having french outhalves playing for the top Top14 clubs  is well known, this is now starting to filter though to many more positions on the field, with the exception of scrumhalf as we all know that the French produces a plethora of short shouty attention seeking surrender monkey field generals who fall over no less frequently than they are heard moaning to referees.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:
I see color bars when I come.

Overdosing on Viagra does that.  Try taking just a half tablet instead ...and sleeping after.  Leave the fee with my receptionist outside.  Next!

I just got a message forcing me to type in a code before they'd publish my last post. Hmmm, some computer reads my garbage and it 'thinks' a computer-program could write all that bilge???

They have a very low opinion of themselves, these computers!

SecretFly wrote:

Rugby Fan wrote:

SecretFly wrote:...You see when people talk of the Lions and what it might do to sides that engaged in it a good six months after it concludes, those people are talking of the classic old amateur days.... not this world and its professionalism...

It's exactly this world and professionalism. In the professional era, France have won every tournament which follows a Lions tour.

You can argue over whether we are seeing correlation or causation, but no-one's harking back to the amateur era when they make that observation,

That continually suggests that all through 6N history, the quality was always with Wales, England and possibly Ireland and that the opportunism was always with France.  
Just don't buy it.  
You could as easily say that in the year or two leading to a Lions tour, the Irish, Scottish, Welsh and English players want to put their hand up for Lions inclusion and are therefore playing above themselves with a carrot infront of them - and making life tough for France in those years.  You could argue that France are usually better than them except for when Lions tours approach?

You could use that argument every bit as much as saying France slide in there when other teams are suffering.  And I still say the upsurge in France after a Lions tour might just as well be them with suddenly a carrot in front of their eyes - namely a coming WC.  The routine is the same... WC follows Lions; Lions follows WC.  You see patterns, I see patterns.

I'm not arguing for causation. Feel free to tackle that issue with someone else.

I just pointed out that the observation has nothing to do with harking back to the amateur era because the correlation occurs throughout the professional era.

Wales: Will not be phased by traveling away to Dublin or Twickenham as their last Slam involved wins away at both venues. Everything depends on fitness. If Wales field their strongest pack and have Roberts and Foxy back I think they are favorites and have every chance of defending their title again. Of course being Wales they could break and be in for a mauling and lose their shirts. So much depends on this weekend too.

England: Their last 6 Nations game was a horror show, their next is in Paris….But they also travel to Italy and Scotland so must be seen as joint favorites based on home advantage however they are still in a maelstrom in the backs behind what is a very impressive pack. If they play to win only; kick for territory and take their pens, they have every chance of a top 2 finish or better but i think lancaster will have to experiment behind the pack and that may cost them. Have a tendency to have the trophy own and in the cupboard by week 2 if they have 2 wins and must resist the tendency to fold under pressure of potential Slam.

Ireland: I hope the outstanding performance they put in last weekend acts as a catalyst for them but like Wales so much depends on the fitness of key players. However with away fixtures v Eng and france i predict they will finish mid table.

France: travel to Scotland and Cardiff, is PSA another Lieveremont? Their showing v SA was disappointing but post Lions they thrive and are hard to nail down. We will know more after their opener but they are capable of winning a Slam. Another Spoon is highly unlikely with italy playing in paris.

Scotland: Will battle for the Spoon with italy but should target 2 wins as a measure of progress. Anyone will do but after England play France in Paris they head to Edinburghfo r the Calcutta Cup, win that and a good showing is possible.

Italy: As above must target 2 wins. They are home to Scotland so will feel they have advantage in the battle for that all important fixture. Some new blood coming through and always have potential to shock.

Scratch,

Travelling to Twickenham is never easy as our record still shows there.

As far as Scotland's concerned we have a strong pack that can match any other in the 6N, especially in the back row and second row and I'd say that if we can get our first choice backline out we'll compete however the chances of that occurring are slim.

I've just had a look at the record books and I've noticed France tend to do well the year after a Lions tour. I'm backing France.

123456789 wrote:As far as Scotland's concerned we have a strong pack that can match any other in the 6N, especially in the back row and second row and I'd say that if we can get our first choice backline out we'll compete however the chances of that occurring are slim.

What would you say your 1st choice backline is?

France has made zero progress since the Laporte years. That's a lot of years during which all other major nations have become better (maybe bar Ireland who also stagnated a bit). Since Laporte obsession about defense and forward play, we became castrated of whatever creativity we once had. Let's face it, the few good performances came from grit and guts display. Our attacks are based on two passes and our backs cannot adapt, show little structure and dont find themselves in the right tempo. Our forwards are technically challenged when it comes to make more than one offload. If power rugby is good enough at club level it aint so at test level. The problem is more deep than just the top14 and its foreign legion. The root lies in the academies and the poor training of young players. That hasnt changed for too many years now and something has to be done.
France will look good at the next WC as they will have spent a few month together and might make the semifinals but that wont erase the miserable displays we got in the last couple of years.

Looking at championships following Lions tours, in the professional era:

1998 France
2002 France
2006 France
2010 France

Seems pretty conclusive to me.

Wi11 wrote:Looking at championships following Lions tours, in the professional era:

1998 France
2002 France
2006 France
2010 France

Seems pretty conclusive to me.

One big difference, they spooned last year and seem to still be in the same mess they were in with lievremont.

I think Wales and England will lead the table again, though not sure in which order. A resurgent Ireland will finish third after they've had time to settle with Schmidt.

Scratch wrote:

Wi11 wrote:Looking at championships following Lions tours, in the professional era:

1998 France
2002 France
2006 France
2010 France

Seems pretty conclusive to me.

One big difference, they spooned last year and seem to still be in the same mess they were in with lievremont.

Yep. I wanna see France in the bottom three again so this superstition can finally be laid to rest.

Yes have to agree re Scotland - no change - were crap, still crap.

It is always impossible to predict the 6Ns these days.

France were awful last year, they have had a slightly better autumn - but, they haven't solved the route of the problem, their club game. I don't think France will be able to go from wooden spoon to champions. They will lose their first game against England then hit a downward spiral, can't see them beating Wales and they will have to tough it out with Ireland in the last game.
THIRD

Ireland were excellent against the ABs. However, they have been putting on 1 to 2 big performances each year for the last 4 - and there has been no development or consistency. They have a nice start to the tournament, but I think injuries will take their toll on their old guard - and the next generation isn't up to scratch
FOURTH

Scotland will put up a strong performance or two at home, but there chances of winning in Dublin and Cardiff are pretty poor - and overcoming England or France at Murrayfield will be a big task - they might pull one out of the bag, but they are not even dark horses this year.
FIFTH

Italy have had a disastrous autumn, there best players are a year older and there pro12 players haven't quite bedded in. If the autumn is anything to go by, they won win a game
SIXTH


England vs Wales is going to be THE match for me. The next time both teams meet at Twickernam, it will be the world cup group stages - don't think either team won't be aware of that. Wales will want to retain their NH dominance and repeat their showing of last year before the WC. England will want revenge, and their pack won't roll over this time. The backs could be key, if Wales have a fit backline while England still toil on without Tuilagi and with Ashton and Tomkins, Wales will be able to bully the English backs. If Wales take a few injuries, I think England will power on to victory.




Big Games

England vs France
First game for both teams. England win and France will feel the chance of winning the tournament is slim. If England lose then it will be a shock to their hope of recovering from last year and the trip to Murrayfield starts to look daunting

Ireland vs Wales
3 epic games in their last 3. Wales convincing winners in the World cup, followed by a nervy close win in Dublin - then they fell apart in Cardiff and had a huge fightback in the second half. Wales have had very mixed success against Ireland in recent years, and I can see this being the nail bitter game it was 2 years ago. Wales will want revenge.


England vs Ireland
Ireland really get up for games at Twickernam, and I see no reason not to this year. England's first home game and they will be desperate for a good performance before facing Wales next up.

Wi11 wrote:Looking at championships following Lions tours, in the professional era:

1998 France
2002 France
2006 France
2010 France

Seems pretty conclusive to me.

I truly don't want to go on with this as I didn't even bring the subject up - but that logic above compels me to.  

If you select the numbers that fit the argument you wish to make then yes, it appears conclusive.  But history doesn't work that way.  History also takes place in the years you don't choose to note down...but I will:

2000 - 2nd
2003 - 3rd
2004 - 1st
2005 - 2nd
2007 - 1st
2008 - 3rd
2009 - 3rd
2011 - 2nd

That's two 1st places, three 2nd places, three 3rd places outside the framework of the hypothesis.  They have most championship wins, share most game wins with England and they have most points.  Nobody claimed that they should be invincible but they are certainly not a dud side waiting for the Lions tours before they pounce on better sides.  They've performed comfortably enough outside the limited reference points the Lions myth uses, and the total 6N record confirms this.  
Indeed the six wins since '98 - two from four taking place in non post-Lions tours years -  added to their overall record in the competition, wouldn't impress statisticians to tie the Lions tours down as having a major statistical contribution to merit mention.  But let the myth continue by all means - I love stories.

Fly you didn't include last year…...if they have been so consistently good which i accept, and then dissolved to come 6th for the first time ever, suggesting they will return to greatness based on their record is somewhat risky

England should get the GS this time around (been saying that for a while though!). The only stumbling block for them in recent years has been Wales - England are steadily improving year-on-year though, and have the potentially crucial home advantage.

Scratch wrote:Fly you didn't include last year…...if they have been so consistently good which i accept, and then dissolved to come 6th for the first time ever, suggesting they will return to greatness based on their record is somewhat risky

What's the point in including last year? ..it doesn't add to either the argument for the Lions myth or against it. It's an anomaly............. my very point about them in the first place, that they're not going to be habitual woodenspooners anytime soon and people expecting to meet them as woodenspoon opposition will get burned.