So is anyone excited about Roland Garros?

First topic message reminder :

I have to admit to feeling rather ambivalent about RG right now.

The last few weeks have shown us 2 things:

1) Novak is the only player on tour with a chance of beating Rafa over 5 sets on clay.

2) Novak's form is very inconsistent right now and he may end up not even playing Rafa.

Whilst I recognise the brilliance of Rafa's dominance on this surface, my goodness it saps the excitement and anticipation from a Slam!

All the other slams have 3 or 4 likely winners and a number of dark horses.

RG has one strong favourite and one other player who might be able to beat him. That's it.

Zzzzzzzzzzzz.

LuvSports wrote:Soderling on drugs lydian?

I find this Soderling-on-drugs rather interesting (and distasteful)h. No one is looking at the arrival of Norman (a very capable clay courter himself) on the scene as a factor at all. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soderling#2008

Does it require drugs to beat Nadal? If so, why are we not accusing Dodig, Mayer, Melzer, Monfils, Rosol, Kohlschreiber who beat Nadal. Oh wait a minute, it was not on clay.

I also strongly dislike this implication that beating Nadal on clay requires drugs, Federer at Hamburg with a bagel set? Djokovic in 2011 and MC 2013.

Oh wait BMR or CVAC, right?

Del Potro is out now too with a "virus" £5 says it's mono.

Again you are looking into this too much LF.
I was merely asking the question that I thought lydian was alluding to, that is all.

You're not alone in your theory TSJ ....separate Delpo thread already running on this btw if you hadn't spotted it.

lags72 wrote:You're not alone in your theory TSJ ....separate Delpo thread already running on this btw if you hadn't spotted it.

Ah so there is, I didn't see it. Thanks

LF, you say "alluding", I was more asking why Soderling's results suddenly went into orbit. Before he suddenly left the tour at Bastad 2011 he beat Berdych 6-0 6-1 in semis then Ferrer 6-2 6-2 in final on clay. He had beaten another player 6-0 6-1 en-route and infact lost only 13 games all tournament. That's unreal for a guy who never reached a clay final before the French Open 2009, playing since 2003, wouldn't you say?

However, are you also going to say its distasteful when fellow pro Christophe Rochus said this:
"Let’s take Robin Soderling. He won Bastad in 2011, and ever since then, he has not played tennis. Apparently he is really sick when I am certain he was unbeatable back then. We can’t deny how dubious it sounds. He was at the peak of his career, and the day after, he suddenly says he can’t play tennis anymore… I really think it’s unbelievable."

Are you going to say its distasteful when it transpired he was warned for missing a doping test at the very same French Open 2009 where he beat Nadal and got to the final out of nowhere? At the same event where 2 weeks earlier he had been drubbed 6-1 6-0 at faster Rome (Soderling loved fast surfaces) by the guy he hated, Nadal. Apparently he changed hotels during the French championships and the testers couldnt find him. A bit odd?

http://www.worldtennismagazine.com/archives/881
Robin Soderling said that he accidently missed a doping test at the French Open because he switched hotels and forgot to mention it to the anti-doping personnel. “I had said I would stay at the Hilton but changed hotels and forgot to announce it,” Soderling said at this week’s If Stockholm Open. “I realized after a few days but it was too late because the doping inspectors had already searched for me for a test.”

What I find unusual, and will question, is any player who's results suddenly went into orbit mid-career. Its not distasteful, its keeping an open mind.

Ah Lydian,

That is a bit more of a reason to add to your suspicions than initially given, and I can understand that you have such suspicions as a result, or are at least sort of asking the question. The other post looked more like a sly insinuation because the guy had a mid career boost of results.

Now I think that the mental improvments I spoke of would have had some effects on him because whatever about physically, you're learning more about the game with every match you play and how to handle certain in-game situations that present themselves. But dropping off the map in the way he has for as long as he has is something that fans would be curious about, however wholesome or not the reason might be.

And that was an injured Nadal too, you cannot ignore that either, but I take your point with more (but not conclusive!) credibility now.

I must admit, when considering if the notion of the "silent ban" going about last year sounded plausible, Soderling's story was the only thing that made me think there might be possibly be any truth in it. It felt like we were being spun a yarn about the chances of a return at various events. That said, the "official" illness/injury reasons for absence seemed perfectly reasonable to me.

I wondered if any Nadal supporters felt perhaps he had played too much over the European clay season? I was surprised that he played Barcelona, given that he still seems to imply the knee is not perfect - it was reported in the Guardian that he can't practise more than 50 minute per day because of it. And he played the maximum number of matches he could in the tournaments entered.

Perhaps if he has a few tricky matches at RG, it might become a problem.

lydian wrote:LF, you say "alluding", I was more asking why Soderling's results suddenly went into orbit. Before he suddenly left the tour at Bastad 2011 he beat Berdych 6-0 6-1 in semis then Ferrer 6-2 6-2 in final on clay. He had beaten another player 6-0 6-1 en-route and infact lost only 13 games all tournament. That's unreal for a guy who never reached a clay final before the French Open 2009, playing since 2003, wouldn't you say?

You make it sound like a 'meteoric' rise. He also reached 2010 RG final, correct? He won Bastad in 2009, correct? He beat Almagro in 2009. Who was his coach during his years?

From WiKi...

At the 2008 World Team Cup in Düsseldorf on clay, he was undefeated in four singles and four doubles matches. He became only the third player in history of that event to accomplish that feat since John McEnroe in 1984 and Fernando González in 2003. Winning all of his matches there, he led the Swedish team to victory.

After disappointing results in both the Beijing Olympics and the US Open, Söderling decided to break up with his trainer Peter Carlsson. He took on former Swedish world number 2 Magnus Norman as support until he appointed a new trainer.

lydian wrote:However, are you also going to say its distasteful when fellow pro Christophe Rochus said this:
"Let’s take Robin Soderling. He won Bastad in 2011, and ever since then, he has not played tennis. Apparently he is really sick when I am certain he was unbeatable back then. We can’t deny how dubious it sounds. He was at the peak of his career, and the day after, he suddenly says he can’t play tennis anymore… I really think it’s unbelievable."

This is the same Rochus who said...

"There's a lot of cheating. Simply, people don't like to talk about it," Rochus said.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/tennis/christophe-rochus-claims-endemic-doping-in-tennis/story-e6frfgao-1225945952303

Belgian wonders especially on sudden absences of some champions like Nadal or Soderling and implies that they may be serving a suspension for doping

http://www.rue89.com/rue89-sport/2013/01/15/un-tennisman-belge-le-dopage-est-une-realite-pourquoi-ne-pas-le-legaliser

There is a whole forum dedicated to the silent ban school.

lydian wrote:Are you going to say its distasteful when it transpired he was warned for missing a doping test at the very same French Open 2009 where he beat Nadal and got to the final out of nowhere? At the same event where 2 weeks earlier he had been drubbed 6-1 6-0 at faster Rome (Soderling loved fast surfaces) by the guy he hated, Nadal. Apparently he changed hotels during the French championships and the testers couldnt find him. A bit odd?

http://www.worldtennismagazine.com/archives/881
Robin Soderling said that he accidently missed a doping test at the French Open because he switched hotels and forgot to mention it to the anti-doping personnel. “I had said I would stay at the Hilton but changed hotels and forgot to announce it,” Soderling said at this week’s If Stockholm Open. “I realized after a few days but it was too late because the doping inspectors had already searched for me for a test.”

What I find unusual, and will question, is any player who's results suddenly went into orbit mid-career. Its not distasteful, its keeping an open mind.

Yes, I know about this incident. You are drawing a conclusion that a 'missed' test is the same as a player actually doping? Is that fair?

soderling was a player with prodigious power who always underachieved early in his career. He teamed up with Magnus Norman and his results started to improve shortly thereafter. The guy deserves credit for his achievements and sympathy for his career being taken away from him just at his very peak. Unless someone has some evidence, I find it appalling the innuendo that he was doping.

The suggestion seems to be based on the fact he beat Nadal at RG having lost to him a couple of weeks before. I doubt there is a drug that can make a player improve in that timeframe by such a degree. The simple fact is on that day he just played his very best game and Nadal couldn't quite cope. The second reason seems to be that he won a title shortly before he stopped playing. I don't see what that shows. The idea of some kind of silent ban is, to me, inherently unlikely as to appearr absurd.

Soderling to me was a player that improved with a single result. Before the Rafa result he was ranked 20 or 30 as he had been for a few years, and after that result played consistently like a top 5 or top 10 player for a couple of years.

That Rafa win was his first ever victory in the fourth round of a slam! After that in 2009-2011 he got to several QFs at Wimbledon and the US Open to add to his French Open finals.

His masters results also show a very clear improvement after RG 09, with QFs, SFs and a W.

In 2008 Roddick was the highest ranked player he beat. In 2009 he beat Nadal and Djokovic at the world tour finals. In 2010 he beat Federer and Murray. Players he just wasn't getting near before.

I don't know why he made a sudden improvement. It could have been confidence or something.

I am not a believer in the silent ban but I think there are enough red flags with Soderling to raise it as a possibility.

What are the red flags HB?

Total agreement with summerblues - it's a Major, and anything can happen, and often does. Nothing is for sure, even with the top four seeds in this event.

You can bet there will be many, many story lines coming to the fore in the French Open - the draw is exciting for a start - Djoko v Nadal, or Federer v Nadal? Tsonga, Berydch, Ferrer - nevermind the other "flight" of players just under them. Something ALWAYS happens in a Major - might not affect top 4 seeds into the semis BUT it's not just about the semis.

Serena - rocking like last year, won't be a 1st round loss but there'll be plenty of pressure there, so draw will be very interesting there.

Doesn't matter what else, whatever - it's Major time; and right after that....another Major at SW19....very exciting time of the year for tennis!

Born Slippy wrote:What are the red flags HB?

He played a five-setter with Nadal at W. Do you recall Federer v Soderling @Halle 2005? I cannot find a video, but the BBC has this - http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/tennis/4070524.stm

its an interesting thought about Soderling, he did suddenly erupt almost from nowhere. However, talking of players who erupted after a big win look no further than Roger Federer. He went from being called a talented choker ranked 4,5,6 prior to Wimbledon 2003, to then winning the most prestigious tennis tournament there is, dropping just a set and then 4 years later he's won 12 of the next 17 slams!

Murray, hadn't made a slam QF before Wimbledon 08 and even then Gasquet should have put him away that year, he was then absolutely crushed by Nadal, the gap was huge. Within a few months he has won Cincinatti beating Djokovic in the final, makes the final of the US Open beating Nadal in 4 sets who was a class above just a few months earlier at Wimbledon.

Pete Sampras, was being criticised for being number 1 without being a reigning grand slam champion (won the 1990 US Open 3 years earlier). Then from saying he hated grass and admitting he gave up against Edberg in the 1992 US Open final, he wins Wimbledon which was the start of 3 consecutive slams, a complete explosion of form.

My point is, you can suggest Soderling's level changed all of a sudden but for me it just shows how mental this sport is. If being the only guy to ever beat Nadal at Roland Garros doesn't make you feel 10 feet tall, make you feel invincible and play above yourself then I don't know what will.

Born Slippy wrote:Unless someone has some evidence, I find it appalling the innuendo that he was doping

On the contrary, I find it interesting that fellow tennis pros who know alot more than you or I imply he may have been cheating. I can see why they may think so. We don't know what these guys know in the locker rooms, the things they see or hear. I suspect they will know an awful lot more than is let on. Soderling was apparently disliked in the locker room for being aloof and standoffish, he alienated himself from the other players. Maybe innuendo is borne out of dislike, maybe its borne out of knowing things we dont. But I'm not so naive to think this sport we love is completely clean, I'm prepared to suspect anyone and everyone where up shots in results are interesting to say the least. The whole Lance Armstrong incident tells us we cant really trust anyone anymore unfortunately given he said countless times he didn't dope only to admit otherwise under duress.

Players by and large dont suddenly go from being average at best on a surface to great in mid-career. Federer was much younger when his results changed plus he'd beaten Sampras on grass at 19 years old. Given doping testing in tennis is completely woeful it would hardly be a surprise to find out players are doping. But of course we have no evidence when writing on a forum, however we are able to comment on things that stand out without making the actual bold assertion itself. If there are points to the contrary, good then let's have them out, but to avoid discussion in the first place is simply to turn one's head away from the possibility. Soderling may very well be innocent, I hope he is, and the circumstances are just unfortunate in the way they look. However, winning a title for the loss of just 13 games in total on highly physical clay then withdrawing from the next event a fortnight later and never being seen again have understandably led to raised eyebrows from fellow pros, not just forums.

Guys, one thing that we all might be glossing over, is that with the Final appearance of RG, Robin gained 1,200 points and as such, would have been seeded significantly higher than before. This would have provided him with more protection in respect of avoiding the big guns in early rounds and playing guys around him after a couple of matches to get his 'eye' in. In short, his ranking protected him.

We're having a conversation about how a (pre Murray withdrawal) the draw would have looked had Rafa being seeded 5th and how that would have affected one half of the draw etc.

I am open to correction obviously, but when you have around 2,200 points you're almost always in the top 10-12 guys, add guys missing events and there is ever chance that for a solid year Robin was in an excellent position for seedings. He backed it up then, by having a second good season. Is he a dodgy athelete, possibly, but everything is purely cynical and circumstantial. I do not like athletes missing drugs tests though, however easily it could be to slip ones mind after a hotel change.

Chris Rochus' quote above gives no indication that he has any more knowledge than you or I, particularly as you say Soderling was something of a loner. Why would he have the faintest idea what Soderling was doing in training?

If Soderling had lost to Rafa in Rome 09 due to a lack of fitness and had then outlasted him in AParis I might have some sympathy for your theory. However, he didn't. He completely outplayed him in a match that was not overly physical. He then backed up that performance for the next two years. There was no real sign of increased physical conditioning or improved speed etc. He just played better. In no way do I see any obvious evidence or even logical inference that Soderling doped.

I'm not actually saying Soderling doped per se, more that I have sympathy with those who feel something was amiss, e.g. Rochus. Why would Rochus come out with that as a fellow pro? As I say, we cannot assume tennis is 100% clean, maybe guys like Rochus knew more about that than us.

In terms of physicality, people probably don't realise what a physical specimen Soderling was towards the end. I don't have comparative pics from earlier in his career but these later photos show a very impressive physique in terms of muscle and low bodyfat. That's some conditioning to get a physique like that on a guy 6'4 tall. Doesn't mean he doped of course.

BTW, interesting article on silent bans...

http://www.tennisnow.com/News/Featured-News/Doping-Discourse-A-Legal-Silent-Ban.aspx
"Situations like Romboli’s make us wonder about every other lengthy absence from the tour..."

Rochus' main focus in his allegations was Nadal rather than Soderling as I recall. I gave no credence to it when I initially read it - to me he sounded no more credible than someone speculating on the internet. However, his point really was aimed at those out for a few months which he felt was suspicious (Soderling at that point having only been out for a while). Do you have sympathy for his view on Nadal as well?

Well, anyone who thinks Nadal faked his knee injury is seriously deluded.

Yes BS, Rochus view on Nadal was somewhat understandable given the changing status of the injury over the months. That said we know how long-standing the knee injury has been. Like I say, none of these guys are beyond reproach but all we have is conjecture. As you know I'm also cynical about the Djokovic oxygen tents and have even previously discussed the Bemer 3000 machine used by Federer (not that its particularly a PED machine, like PRP its more an accelerant of recovery).

On balance I'm sure the top guys are clean as the potential risk is surely far too great to be exposed and its hard to believe guys at the top for 7-8 guys have been systematically doing this without anyone else knowing or finding out. Lance always denied it from 1999-2006 but we now know others knew all along. I guess if something is/was going on hopefully the truth would out in the end.

CAS wrote:its an interesting thought about Soderling, he did suddenly erupt almost from nowhere. However, talking of players who erupted after a big win look no further than Roger Federer. He went from being called a talented choker ranked 4,5,6 prior to Wimbledon 2003, to then winning the most prestigious tennis tournament there is, dropping just a set and then 4 years later he's won 12 of the next 17 slams!

Murray, hadn't made a slam QF before Wimbledon 08 and even then Gasquet should have put him away that year, he was then absolutely crushed by Nadal, the gap was huge. Within a few months he has won Cincinatti beating Djokovic in the final, makes the final of the US Open beating Nadal in 4 sets who was a class above just a few months earlier at Wimbledon.

Pete Sampras, was being criticised for being number 1 without being a reigning grand slam champion (won the 1990 US Open 3 years earlier). Then from saying he hated grass and admitting he gave up against Edberg in the 1992 US Open final, he wins Wimbledon which was the start of 3 consecutive slams, a complete explosion of form.

My point is, you can suggest Soderling's level changed all of a sudden but for me it just shows how mental this sport is. If being the only guy to ever beat Nadal at Roland Garros doesn't make you feel 10 feet tall, make you feel invincible and play above yourself then I don't know what will.

Great point CAS, not to mention the fact that Federer also came down with mono so there is another parallel. Fed's rise was even more meteoric and he also had mono. Honestly, I don't want to cast aspersions on either player soderling or Federer. As I have said I don't make innuendo about a player until he tests positive for something. The missed test is a little suspicious, but Soderling was always a good player and top 10 level talent, also his style of play with a lot of short points doesn't traditionally fit into someone who needs massive amounts of fitness. I don't lend much credence to the talk of him losing to Nadal double breadsticks on clay and then beating him. Tennis is a feel game and on your best day you look sensational on your worst day you look like garbage. As well Nadal injured himself between those two matches so that played a role as well.

lydian wrote:Yes BS, Rochus view on Nadal was somewhat understandable given the changing status of the injury over the months. That said we know how long-standing the knee injury has been. Like I say, none of these guys are beyond reproach but all we have is conjecture. As you know I'm also cynical about the Djokovic oxygen tents and have even previously discussed the Bemer 3000 machine used by Federer (not that its particularly a PED machine, like PRP its more an accelerant of recovery).

On balance I'm sure the top guys are clean as the potential risk is surely far too great to be exposed and its hard to believe guys at the top for 7-8 guys have been systematically doing this without anyone else knowing or finding out. Lance always denied it from 1999-2006 but we now know others knew all along. I guess if something is/was going on hopefully the truth would out in the end.

This part is key.

All the cyclists knew what Armstrong was doing (most were joining in!). I'd look for sideways comments from other players to tip me off. Stuff like "it's inhuman what he does" or "the turnaround has been incredible", that sort of thing.

I don't think I've ever heard anyone say this about Federer (the only stuff is worship of the talent), nor Nadal.

bogbrush wrote:

lydian wrote:Yes BS, Rochus view on Nadal was somewhat understandable given the changing status of the injury over the months. That said we know how long-standing the knee injury has been. Like I say, none of these guys are beyond reproach but all we have is conjecture. As you know I'm also cynical about the Djokovic oxygen tents and have even previously discussed the Bemer 3000 machine used by Federer (not that its particularly a PED machine, like PRP its more an accelerant of recovery).

On balance I'm sure the top guys are clean as the potential risk is surely far too great to be exposed and its hard to believe guys at the top for 7-8 guys have been systematically doing this without anyone else knowing or finding out. Lance always denied it from 1999-2006 but we now know others knew all along. I guess if something is/was going on hopefully the truth would out in the end.

This part is key.

All the cyclists knew what Armstrong was doing (most were joining in!). I'd look for sideways comments from other players to tip me off. Stuff like "it's inhuman what he does" or "the turnaround has been incredible", that sort of thing.

I don't think I've ever heard anyone say this about Federer (the only stuff is worship of the talent), nor Nadal.

I thought that there were some comments of that sort after the Australian Open 2012 about both competitors.

I agree that there are no firm grounds to 'suspect' or be cynical about the top 4, but equally I think it would be naïve to express 100% confidence in their cleanliness, so I think "on balance" is a fair way to put it. I think that distinctions can be made between them - I'd have most confidence in Federer in terms both of his utterances and his career/fitness trajectory, but I'd still not say 100% in his case. Nadal and his camp have been guilty of some pretty clumsy statements over the years, and Djoko and Murray have produced step-changes in their physicality. It is a fairly bad indictment of the ATP/ITF and their lax testing regime that there is as much room for doubt as there is.

Here's some further information on Soderling. There are also a couple of interesting links in the article too.

where?

Facepalm. I pressed "control + c" instead of "control + v".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/tennis/22598952