HEC - A Rough Form Guide

On Friday the HEC finally starts. For a little while we can actually concentrate on how teams from the different leagues face up to each other. When the pools were announced there were several perceived pools of death etc - so I thought i would take a look how each group's teams have performed so far this season. All I will do is on a group by group basis compare ther combined league positions and league points garnered:

Pool 1
Edinburgh - 9th with 12pts
Munster - 5th with 14pts
Racing Metro - 7th with 19pts
Saracens 4th with 20pts

Group Total - 25 places and 65pts


Pool 2
Benetton Treviso - 8th with 13pts
Leicester - 3rd with 20pts
Ospreys - 6th with 14pts
Toulouse - 2nd with 28pts

Group total - 19 places and 75pts


Pool 3
Biarritz - 8th with 19pts
Connacht - 10th with 10pts
Harlequins - 2nd with 20pts
Zebre - 12th with 1pt (1 less match than other Rabo)

Group total 32 places and 50pts


Pool 4
Castres - 6th with 20pts
Glasgow - 3rd with 18pts
Northampton - 1st with 22pts
Ulster - 1st with 21pts (1 less match than other Rabo)

Group Total 11 places and 81pts


Pool 5
Clermont - 3rd with 28pts
Exeter - 6th with 16pts
Leinster - 4th with 17pts
Scarlets - 2nd with 20pts

Group total 15 places and 81pts


Pool 6
Cardiff - 7th with 14pts
Montpelier - 4th with 23pts
Sale - 12th with 1pt
Toulon - 1st with 32pts

Group Total 24 places with 70pts




Pool 4 stands out for me as the Pool with best form so far this season, closely followed by Pool 5. On recent form Pool 3 looks the weakest. Of course it all means nought come the weekend.

Ulster vs Northampton double header is going to be epic, #1 in the Rabo and Jeff respectively and two of the biggest packs in Europe, cant wait.

I fear for Tigers we really don't have a lot of form and have two tough games minus some key players through injury. The only positive is that we have managed to rotate some players round so that all of the 23 will have had game time and should be ready. The loss of Salvi, Murphy and the none return of Louis Deacon are all major blows ahead of two big games.

I thought our group looked a bit easier to get out of than last season but when you put it like that!

Pool 3 will provide one of the two runners-up qualifiers, so realistically, if your team is in any of the other 5 Pools, your team will need to win it to be sure of qualifying.

I'm backing Ulster this term.

SUFTUM!

If Harlequins can't make it into the top seeds for a home quarter with a potential gift of 20 points against Zebre and Connacht, it's gonna take more than a restructured H Cup to help English clubs along. Conor O'Shea must be rubbing his hands in glee at their draw.

Whoever gets out of Pool 5 will likely be in the away side of the draw.

With Ospreys kinda getting a return to form, themselves and Toulouse to duke it out for the top spot?

And the two French clubs to fight for Pool 6? Sale are looking like easy prey and can they really be focused on H Cup when they're grounded at the bottom of the AP?

formerly known as Sam wrote:I fear for Tigers we really don't have a lot of form and have two tough games minus some key players through injury. The only positive is that we have managed to rotate some players round so that all of the 23 will have had game time and should be ready. The loss of Salvi, Murphy and the none return of Louis Deacon are all major blows ahead of two big games.

I don't fear for Tigers these days, it's not like they're contenders anymore, is it? Surely the emphasis is still on trying to regain the Premiership?

Pool 4 the form pool, however still confident Ulster will top it, games against Saints are going to be belters. looking forward to them most.

After q-final loss, 2 years ago Ulster will be keen to show how much we've moved up since then. However I think each team will win their home game.

I was thinking about pool 2 the other day and over the period of last couple of years it has the Best team in England, best team in France, best team in Wales and best team in Italy.

It really is a best of the best group.

good thread LT.
I might the only to think that here but believe Scarlets has a good chance to be one of the happy few teams to ever win in Clermont. Clermont current standings is in fact misleading : they scrapped a few wins against lesser teams without never convincing , are shaky and error prone in defense. Scarlets need to watch a video of the ASM-stade français game to find ideas (stade français nearly won this one and god knows they are not known for they away form). players like north and some fluid backplay should cause more than problems. they are there for the taking.

Ulster v Toulon final. You heard it here first

SUFTUM.

Whocares,

It is always great to see your perspective on the French Clubs. Montpelier seem to have been the surprise package so far in the T14 - will this form continue and will they take Europe seriously?

Wow of scarlets could beat asm that would be superb. It would make things a hell of a lot easier for Leinster. As I see that group now, its between Leinster and ASM, with a losing bonus points most likely to separate the two. I just can't see Llanelli being up to the task of this group and Exeter will put up fight but can't really see them troubling the two big teams.

But then again this is the Heineken cup and anything can happen.

Montpelier has been consistently in the top 6 for 2 years now. they have a good squad but not enough to seriously compete in the HC. they rely on someone like Hape to score tries... that said with a good record against Toulon a a not so tough pool, they could target a QF spot this year. last year they were the only team to prevent a Leinster win.

Form guide I am very pleased with Pool 1.

I am feeling confident of beating Edinburgh at Murrayfield. Saracens have been playing away all season. We definitely have not seen the best from them either.If they can actually finish off try scoring opportunities they'll pummel someone.

I would like 22 points minimum from our pool please, Quins

Leinster have conceded 20 tries in 6 games. More than Zebre. We have loads of injuries. I'm starting to think we'll struggle to get out of the group.

Feckless Rogue wrote:Leinster have conceded 20 tries in 6 games. More than Zebre. We have loads of injuries. I'm starting to think we'll struggle to get out of the group.

While most of the culprits are not in the HC squad, I am still not feeling confident.

Serious amount of injuries. Thought Exeter at home would be a 5 pointer, but we could lose it the way things are going.

Hope for some good news after lunch on the squad. Rumblings are that we could have Leo C, Bod, Isa, Conway and even Darce, Boss and Rob Kearney.

That would only leave the back row as a major problem.

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:

Feckless Rogue wrote:Leinster have conceded 20 tries in 6 games. More than Zebre. We have loads of injuries. I'm starting to think we'll struggle to get out of the group.

While most of the culprits are not in the HC squad, I am still not feeling confident.

Serious amount of injuries. Thought Exeter at home would be a 5 pointer, but we could lose it the way things are going.

Hope for some good news after lunch on the squad. Rumblings are that we could have Leo C, Bod, Isa, Conway and even Darce, Boss and Rob Kearney.

That would only leave the back row as a major problem.

If we can get get out of these two weeks, with all the injuries we have, and take two wins with us we will be laughing!!

Pretty pleased with Quins pool, just have to start well this week and beat Biarritz. After that don't slip up against Connacht. And get plenty of tbp's along the way.

Hoog wrote:

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:

Feckless Rogue wrote:Leinster have conceded 20 tries in 6 games. More than Zebre. We have loads of injuries. I'm starting to think we'll struggle to get out of the group.

While most of the culprits are not in the HC squad, I am still not feeling confident.

Serious amount of injuries. Thought Exeter at home would be a 5 pointer, but we could lose it the way things are going.

Hope for some good news after lunch on the squad. Rumblings are that we could have Leo C, Bod, Isa, Conway and even Darce, Boss and Rob Kearney.

That would only leave the back row as a major problem.

If we can get get out of these two weeks, with all the injuries we have, and take two wins with us we will be laughing!!

Which we are you referring to Hughie?

The HEC is always a spectacle and great fun to dust off the international rivalries!

From an English perspective, I'd offer the following thoughts:

Pool 1
Sarries are tediously effective; they may not score tries but also concede very few. Their players are better individuals than the performances would suggest (think Ospreys of old) but they'll either continue to deliver stodgy ground-out wins, or really rip someone apart. A class team should be able to beat them, of course, but games aren't won on paper...

Pool 2
As a Tigers fan, I'm nervous as hell. We're not playing particularly well and although we've had our injury problems, so's everyone else. I always thought this would be a year where we pushed on, but it's not seeming likely at this early stage of the season. We should do BT home and away (but maybe only 9 points not 10), but the quite realistic lack of LBPs against ST and Os may mean we don't make it.

Pool 3
On paper, this should be a relative walk for Quins, but surprises are what the HEC is made of. Biarritz have failed to deliver over the last few seasons, but are still a decent group of individuals. Quins have had a real wake up call in the AP, so should be switched on, although Evans does seem to be pretty crucial to their success. Still would expect Quins to top the group.

Pool 4
A belter of a group with Tampon playing pretty well (10 aside) and Ulster also seeming to continue in a rich vein of form. Very hard to call and Glasgow and Castres won't be walk-overs either, especially at home. Ouch!

Pool 5
Exeter seem to be struggling with consistency, but have the ability to deliver some really strong performances when it clicks, based on a very solid forward pack and a pretty accurate Mieres. Rarely deliver very poor performances, so could well collect LBPs and put them into contention. I'd be surprised if they got through though, given the overall quality of their group.

Pool 6
With such issues in the AP, Sale will almost certainly be resting as many key players as possible, lest their battle to stay in the top flight be damaged by injuries etc. On form likely to be the whipping boys of the group

Do Leinster have a serious and exceptional injury problem in absolute or relative terms?

greytiger wrote:Do Leinster have a serious and exceptional injury problem in absolute or relative terms?

That’s a very odd question, but I know what you mean. It’s in absolute terms, going into the game against Munster we had 14 injuries many to first team players (Fitzgerald, Cullen, Healy, Darcy, Kearney, O’Brien etc.) and during the game we had to take off the following players due to injury – O’Driscoll, McLaughlin, Nacewa and Conway.

Now the update on the latest batch of injuries are that some of them are almost certain to be back and we’ll have to wait for further tests on the rest but this is a perfect storm of injuries at the moment.

Early prediction for quarter finals:

I would go for

1.Quins
2.Toulon
3.Toulouse
4.Ulster
5.Saracens
6.Clermont
7.Biarritz
8.Leinster

Toughest to call IMO are Munster vs Saracens,Ulster vs Saints.

Biarritz and Quins are virtually qualified already.

It's pretty clear best runners up will come from Pool 3 but which other pool I wonder.

Don't the HC winners often come from the toughest pools though?

If that's the case it's probably going to be one of Toulouse,Leinster or Clermont which isn't a bad bet.

I don't fear for Tigers these days, it's not like they're contenders anymore, is it? Surely the emphasis is still on trying to regain the Premiership?

That's not a very Tigers style view. We need to make a mark this season in order to boost our seeding for future seasons and the brand needs reinforcing. If we had a proper 7 fit I'd say we could beat anyone on our day. Cockers could do with accumulating silverware as well.

PJHolybloke wrote:

formerly known as Sam wrote:I fear for Tigers we really don't have a lot of form and have two tough games minus some key players through injury. The only positive is that we have managed to rotate some players round so that all of the 23 will have had game time and should be ready. The loss of Salvi, Murphy and the none return of Louis Deacon are all major blows ahead of two big games.

I don't fear for Tigers these days, it's not like they're contenders anymore, is it? Surely the emphasis is still on trying to regain the Premiership?

it's not a given that you have to win the Aviva in order to be able to win the HC.

Just bet £2k at 25/1 on ulster to win the heineken cup. Crazy odds. Cant wait for my £50k!

nathan wrote:

PJHolybloke wrote:

formerly known as Sam wrote:I fear for Tigers we really don't have a lot of form and have two tough games minus some key players through injury. The only positive is that we have managed to rotate some players round so that all of the 23 will have had game time and should be ready. The loss of Salvi, Murphy and the none return of Louis Deacon are all major blows ahead of two big games.

I don't fear for Tigers these days, it's not like they're contenders anymore, is it? Surely the emphasis is still on trying to regain the Premiership?

it's not a given that you have to win the Aviva in order to be able to win the HC.

The point I was trying to get across is that Tigers, pretty much like all the other AP teams (apart from maybe Sarries with their ability to choke the life out of a game), have little to no chance of winning both the AP and the HC, given that the chances of winning the AP are far higher for Tigers, I would have thought the emphasis for them would lie there.

Better the AP than another year with an empty trophy cabinet, as a Bath fan something I know only too well.

4 major trophies (5 if you count amlin) and 38 teams. that is a lot of trophyless teams each season.

For Tigers fan you can at least be consoled that fans haven't said that your best chance of silverware is the LV Cup just yet.

Aren't you the defending LV cup champions? That's pretty impressive.

To be fair to PJholybloke he's right. Leicester have lost a bit of their fear factor. WR is no longer the fortress it was. Leicester are still a very good side of course but there's not the thought that you'll lose before a ball is kicked like before.

Munster are the same. A former European giant. Still dangerous of course but Thomond Park is no longer as imposing as it used to be. They showed a glimmer last season of their former glory by topping their pool but losing to Ulster at home was a not impressive showing.

It wouldn't be that surprising if both bow out in the pool stages. Something that would have been unheard of not too long ago. On the other hand both have the potential to go far.

Scrumdown wrote:Just bet £2k at 25/1 on ulster to win the heineken cup. Crazy odds. Cant wait for my £50k!

Genius!

To be fair those are pretty good odds. I might make a £5 punt on that.

Isn't the final in Ireland?

Yup at the Aviva...god damn it why didn't I buy tickets when I had the chance

formerly known as Sam wrote:

I don't fear for Tigers these days, it's not like they're contenders anymore, is it? Surely the emphasis is still on trying to regain the Premiership?

That's not a very Tigers style view. We need to make a mark this season in order to boost our seeding for future seasons and the brand needs reinforcing. If we had a proper 7 fit I'd say we could beat anyone on our day. Cockers could do with accumulating silverware as well.

I think Tigers could end up in the Amlin and as Cardiff and Bz have shown its a good way to raise points for the Rankings. You almost get as much as you do if you get to the final of the HC.

Would also give you european silverware.

beshocked wrote:Early prediction for quarter finals:

I would go for

1.Quins
2.Toulon
3.Toulouse
4.Ulster
5.Saracens
6.Clermont
7.Biarritz
8.Leinster

Toughest to call IMO are Munster vs Saracens,Ulster vs Saints.

Biarritz and Quins are virtually qualified already.

It's pretty clear best runners up will come from Pool 3 but which other pool I wonder.

Do you think that a best runner up will come from Pool 5 then Beshocked?

I'd imagine from such a tough group you'd only get 1 qualifier (ie either Leinster or Clermont), unless you envisage both getting bonus point wins over Exter/Scarlets home AND away. I think this COULD be a year where Leinster fail to qualify from the group!!! considering their injuries, having Clermont in their group, Scarlets having run them close a few times and being improved this year meaning they have a good chance of beating Leinster at PyS and could deny Leinster a WBP in Ireland - the same COULD happen in Exeter, or at least should deny WBPs to the top 2 teams.

I think the 2 qualifiers could come from Pool 6, seemingly the weaker pool, and Pool 3 (though teams will find it very tough against Connacht).

My expected qualifiers are
Munster
Saints/Ulster (think Saints but v close)
Toulose
Clermont
Biarritz
Quins
Toulon
Montpellier

Love the HC cant wait till the weekend, although I'll be in ireland and can never find anywhere that shows the games..

My 2 pence worth:

Pool1
despite a good campaign last time out i cant see edinburgh keeping pace in this group. sarries or munster for me although if sarries cannot score tries they wont win the pool. Munster

Pool2
probably the toughest to call, treviso are no mugs and all the others will be strong at home and any could qualify. ospreys have started slowly and you cant do that on the HC, tigers dont look to have their normal edge, im going with pedigree on this one. toulouse

pool3
i agree with beshocked 1 of the runners up will come from this group, with both zebre and connacht in this group more bonus points shouls be available, this is the reason the HC format needs looking at. Quins and Biaritz

pool4
both ulster and the saints have had a great start to the season but glasgow and castre will make it difficult for 2 teams to get out of this group. I fancy ulster and saints could get the 2nd runners up spot but i worry about there lack of top class no. 10. ulster

pool5
baptism of fire for exeter, tough group. but again i feel exeter may have enough about them especially at sandy park to make it only 1 tem trough from this group. leinster

pool6
along with pool3 this is probably the weakest pool. obviously fancy toulon to top it but if the others can string together some results they may well find themselves in a quarter final. toulon

Saints, blues or monpellier for the 2nd runners up spot.

I think people will be very (painfully) surprised if they just expect bonus points out of Connacht - especially away.

All the best teams win the Amlin...

Any one think Toulon may be in with a shout this season? They've potentially got a very easy group if you look at the opposition packs that they'll be facing. They could get enough points to book a home semi and their grounds pretty intimidating.

Add to that they easily have two whole teams of quality players, and the big names seem to really be clicking in to gear.

I guess it depends on the old cliches of will they take it seriously etc

toulon
quins
munster
ulster
toulouse
leinster
biaritz
?

Smirnoffpriest wrote:I think people will be very (painfully) surprised if they just expect bonus points out of Connacht - especially away.

i understand your point and they may go on to prove me wrong but having connacht as a 3rd seed in the pool doesnt seem right to me, the top 2 seeds in that pool have a better chance of both going through than the other pools.

Maybe - but that still doesn't mean that any team will get a WBP against them

Smirnoffpriest you are right the best runner up might well not come from pool 5. It's really tough to call that other spot. I just have a feeling Clermont and Leinster will get through because they've been the teams to beat in Europe.

To put into pool into perspective. These are the 3rd and 4th seeds.

Pool 1 has Saracens and Racing Metro

Pool 2 has Ospreys and Treviso

Pool 3 has Connacht and Zebre

Pool 4 has Glasgow and Castres

Pool 5 has Scarlets and Exeter

Pool 6 has Sale and Montpellier

Pool 3 clearly has the easiest. Probably Pool 1 has the toughest.

Shocked - yeah pool 3 is the easiest however if it were Connacht and Montpellier in pool 3, and Sale and Zebre in pool 6, then maybe pool 6 would be easiest. I think having one of the lesser 3rd seeds and the worse 4th seed does give that pool an easier look. Also pool 3 is interesting as Quins lost to Connacht in the HEC, and I believe Biaritz lost to Aironi (now Zebre) before too.

Also I really do think that anyone who take Treviso or Connacht lightly will be shown up, especially in Italy/Galway, there will be no easy 4 try demolisions there.

I agree scarletspiderman. Sale is on form the weakest 3rd seed and Zebre is quite clearly the weakest side in the HC.

I think of potential upsets the most likely is Biarritz losing to Connacht away. Other than that I can't see any personally. Zebre have unfortunately been whipping boys.

I genuinely think Treviso will trip someone up. They've already beaten the O's this season, drew with them in the HC last season. They are the most likely target but the others should be troubled too.

If we lose to Connacht again I think I may genuinely cry

Beshocked - I agree combined with Zebre then Pool 3 is weaker than the rest - but that doesn't mean Connacht won't cause lots of problems for teams. Zebre will obviously struggle as it's their 1st season.

Smirnoffpriest I said I think Connacht will give Biarritz problems and could actually get the win at home.

Expect Quins to do the double over Connacht as they have in the Amlin.

I can't see anyone beating Biarritz in Biarritz or anyone beating Quins at the Stoop.

My prediction is probably this

Quins 5 wins 3 try bonus points and 1 losing bonus points - 24
Biarritz 4 wins 3 try bonus points and 2 losing bonus points -21
Connacht 3 wins 2 try bonus points and 1 losing bonus point - 16
Zebre -0 wins, 0 bonus points - 0