A couple of systems for the Flat

Love it or loathe it but the Flat is well and truly back.I used to yearn for the Flat as it is a much better betting medium than NH but it has little if any of the spectacle.When i followed the Flat and made quite a tidy sum from it i used a few system to try to get an "edge",thought you might like to know,if not then please dont snore too loud.
Racing is full of horses that wont/cant win,i used to only back winners ie horses that have actually managed a victory.
1.Seven to ten furlong hcaps.Races of less than seven can be won at the start and races over more than ten can be won by gallopers who take some pegging back.
2.Horses that strike the front at or around the furlong pole and QUICKEN(this is of paramount importance).Not just stay on or lengthen but show a real change of gear.Pay real attention to horses that do this on a track that doesnt lend itself to that particular run style ie York,Ripon etc
3.Make a note of the conditions,course,trip,jockey,class of race,weight,run style of the race,which weay the wind was blowing...everything.
4.When these conditions repeat or are extremely close to repeating themselves then in you go but only bet if the odds on offer are what you expected or slightly bigger,if the odds arent right you have to walk away,dont back a horse at a silly price because youre scared of missing a winner,i can guarantee you'll miss more losers than winners by walking away from daft prices.
5.If the horse fails to deliver when the conditions are in place then take him off your list until it shows the same sort of form again in the future.
It involves loads of legwork,study and an iron will,particularly where walking away from wrong odds is concerned but if a stupid old duffer like me can make it work then anybody can.

Second system was one that i fell on much by accident than good judgement.I used to trawl the northern tracks 2,3 or 4 times a week whilst following my original system and obviously you watched all the races and having studied the results of certain other events i came up with this one.
1.Fourteen to Sixteen furlong hcaps.
2.When a horse makes all and shows a change of pace anywhere in the race.
3.Write down the conditions as before.
4.When they repeat/come close to repeating then in you go as long as the price is right.
5.Failure to deliver leads to crossing off the list until it shows a return to form.
This system paid dividends at some of the northern tracks that lend themselves to front running types,places like Redcar,Ripon,Thirsk,York and Catterick.
Both systems can be improvised to allow for all quality if races if you so desire,Saturday at Newbury had a casing point in RIMTH,she quickened in tremendous style and although it wasnt a handicap i reckon when those conditions repeat themselves then she will do it again.

Hope my avid viewer finds this of some help,if not then ive just wasted 45 mins of my life

thats a great post racingnut.
particularly interesting about only backing horses that have won before.
that is such an obvious point but I had never considered it before!

I have won a bit in the last week following the ground conditions.
for example on Saturday at Newbury I reckoned that there were only 2 horses that could win the 2.05 race - Verdant and Indian Days as these were the only 2 horses in the race that had won on a good to firm surface.
Naturally I picked Verdant for the tipping contest on here as it was the safest option and then of course Indian Days went and won it. Anyway I backed both and had a good win because Indian Days was a much better price.

I havent got the time to follow all racing that closely but I do make a point of studying the major flat festivals in the summer and record my bets for then. I have made decent profits in the last couple of years - especially at Royal Ascot and Goodwood where I reckon it is easiest to win money

I also found that a staking plan is essential.I used to start every season with a "bank" ie £1000 which i divided up into level stakes,lets say 20 x£50 bets.If i doubled the bank i doubled the stake ie £2000 - 20 x£100 bets and so on ,£4000-20 x£200 bets but if you halved your bank you halved your stake.In my opinion level stake profit is king and you must not double or treble up your stakes cos you are chasing loses,if you have a bad day just forget it and move on,its the long game that counts.Combination bets are for mugs and you CANT back every winner,dont listen to "tips" because you end up feeling that you have to back it just in case and always believe what you see with your own eyes,if you see something diferent to everyone else then you believe in yourself ie if you dont think a horse is as good as everybody else does then you listen to yourself and vice versa.Finally,i got told this by a old timer at Redcar one day,"Bet but only if you have to,if you do then bet like a man but lose like one too".
God i waffle on,sorry kids hope you kept your eyes open

Ok kiddies,i put the system up for handicaps between 7 and 10 furlongs,well there might just be one in the 5.35 at Newcastle tonight,everything is in place except for the handicap mark,he won an almost identical race off 75 last June but tonights hes off 83.Still think that a reproduction of last seasons win will give him a massive claim and if any 10/3 or 7/2 is available then i might be tempted...THE GALLOPING SHOE.

racingnut wrote:Ok kiddies,i put the system up for handicaps between 7 and 10 furlongs,well there might just be one in the 5.35 at Newcastle tonight,everything is in place except for the handicap mark,he won an almost identical race off 75 last June but tonights hes off 83.Still think that a reproduction of last seasons win will give him a massive claim and if any 10/3 or 7/2 is available then i might be tempted...THE GALLOPING SHOE.

Taken off his feet from the get go,looked like he didnt really appreciate the quick ground and most importantly he looked like the handicapper knew all about him.Never nearer third at the line,might be of interest when he gets his mark back down in the 70s.

racingnut wrote:
God i waffle on,sorry kids hope you kept your eyes open

Great thread racingnut........it's not waffle at all.....it's very interesting.

When I beat everyone by a mile in the tipping comp, a couple of weeks ago, it was the first time I'd done so well in any forum comp.

It was flat racing.......I hadn't a clue......so I just picked runners who were blinkered first time and it worked!

So that's my system.....and that's how I picked the 12/1 winner lol

Solerina