How can Wales beat Australia next week?

by welliamwibb Sun 10 Jun 2012, 11:18 am

First topic message reminder :

It is obvious what happened yesterday.

Wales massively underestimated Australia and didn't expect them to play as intelligently, pacey and intensely as they did. I don't think Wales would have been complacent, but due to Oz injuries I don't think Wales expected them to play as well as they normally do.

Wales made so many mistakes due to the sheer speed and intensity of the Os assault and phase play. I've never seen the ball recycled so quickly. Genia was passing it back out almost as soon as the ruck was created. That is what Wales are not doing and need to replicated. I was mortified to see Phillips slow once again and watch a try scoring opportunity goto waste in the first half due to not being quick enough or paying attention to the ball in the ruck.

Instead of grabbing the game by the scruff. Wales were always waiting to see how Oz would play and what they would do first. How many times did we see them simply track Genia to see if he made a pass before thinking about tackling him. Just get stuck in and tackle him whatever happens. Welsh players should be confident in the abilities of the players outside them to make the tackle if they commit to tackling Genia and co and he offloads. It is far worse to not commit the tackle and then he does a sidestep or gains another 10/20 yards.

Not enough pressure was but on Berrick Barnes and too often the outside backs had an easy platform. Tackling overall was really poor compared to the Six Nations. Genia skinned too many players and I've said time and time again that James Hook cannot tackle well when he players anywhere other than 10. The last try was a textbook move and nobody even tried to tackle him. It was worse than South Africa's winning try in the World Cup.

We must not kick possession away unless the ball lands in their 22 or we get a lineout. Australia are so good at counter attacking it is pointless giving away possession. They can't score without the ball and we should be confident enough in our forwards that we can keep possession and not give away the ball or a penalty. Rustyness was an overall factor in the performance and I don't think there should have been a BaaBaa's fixture and the whole squad should have been Oz together for 10-14 days before the first test.

Look at replays again I think I was too harsh on Priestland. That pass from Warburton was ridiculous. Wales panicked too much yesterday. There was no need to panic and throw a feeble pass, just like JD2's run at 78 minutes where he fluffed it up due to panicking. Starting Hook at 10 is not a good idea. Priestland just needs to calm down and think about what he's doing more. Cut out the poor tackles and kick more intelligently.

Losing George North could have cost Wales the match he is so strong and a massive attacking threat. If he is fit next week then we must get the ball to him and Cuthbert as much as possible.

Genia and Barnes need to be target by Phillips and Warburton. The forwards need to be FAR more aggressive. Everyone goes on about the pack as being Australia's weak point, but their counter rucking was insane. We need
to get our forwards in a nasty frame of mind and really fight back next week.

Just read that Faletau is out. Blessing in disguise maybe after yesterdays performance?

TEAM FOR NEXT WEEK:

1. Jenkins
2. Owens
3. Jones

4. AWJ
5. Evans

6. Lydiate
7. Warburton
8. Jones

9. Phillips
10. Priestland

11. North

12. Beck
13. Davies

14. Cuthbert
15. Halfpenny

16. Paul James
17. Matthew Rees
18. Bradley Davies
19. Justin Tipuric
20. Rhys Webb
21. James Hook
22. Scott Williams / Harry Robinson

by gowales Sun 10 Jun 2012, 4:04 pm

That's how i approach things biltongbek.

by Cymroglan Sun 10 Jun 2012, 4:05 pm

Permian88
Excellent post

by Permian88 Sun 10 Jun 2012, 4:09 pm

Cheers Red and Cymroglan, I think wales need to adopt a tighter game in the first 40:

1) Commit numbers to slow oz ball down and win our own.
2) Scrummage and Maul and give priestland and phillips the structure to make good contestable or territorial kicks.
3) We need not kick if we keep hold of the ball, tight pick and go's with numbers and it must be organised.

Too much poor ball control at rucks and kicks this weekend.

by TJ1 Sun 10 Jun 2012, 4:24 pm

gowales wrote:
You can't win by smashing in to the opposition or just defending the whole game.

Scotland did Whistle

How can Wales beat Australia next week?

They need to boss the breakdown - again see what Scotland did. You need to disrupt and steal their ball and get in the faces of their half backs - thats why Scotland won - they nullified Aus attacking game

by gowales Sun 10 Jun 2012, 4:29 pm

Plus the weather was bloody miserable. I highly doubt Scotland would have a chance against the Aussies in decent conditions.

And what Aus attacking game? In that weather all that was gonna happen was kick, kick and kick.

by **Biltong** Sun 10 Jun 2012, 4:45 pm

Yes, I also beleive bad weather influences a running game negatively.

In my view mud/rain fests are won by forwards and that is what Scotland did very well.

by Ospreydragon Sun 10 Jun 2012, 4:48 pm

"Wales massively underestimated Australia " -- They did not prepare properly, nor did they select the right team/squad. Who is responsible for that -- Howley or Gatland?

-- they were unprepared at the breakdown and were way off the pace of the game for most of the first half

-- re: pace of game, that must partly have been down to selection -- so many players who had not played for a while -- such as our captain, JD, SW, Charteris, BD. Other players chosen who are not in form -- such as Priestland (who was v poor) and Faletau, who was inconspicuous. I supose BD and Charteris had to be played becuase IE and AWJ were not available, but they could have considered RJ in the second row.

-- Beck should have started at 12
-- Biggar should have been on the tour and arguably started ahead of Priestland on form -- RP has been poor since and during the 6N
-- Byrne should have toured and at least been benched.
-- Arguably, Tipuric should have started (on form) and a temporary captain assigned (Warburton benched).

International rugby is about winning, not being overly loyal to players who have not played or are clearly not in form.

by **George Carlin** Sun 10 Jun 2012, 4:49 pm

Permian88 wrote:Hi All, new to the board.

Wales have clearly missed the direction and tactical awareness of Gatland this weekend. Also, a number of these players were clearly undercooked, lacking the game sharpness needed to play at the top of the game.

Sam Warburton has been out for 11 weeks and looked slow to the breakdown and lacking the strength we have seen he has. This game will stand him in good stead for next week and I expect to see a dramatic increase in performance from him.

Toby Faletau, now ruled out of the tour, also looked jaded and was ineffectual for large parts of the game. Ryan Jones has been in imperious form is now a certain starter which will help our go forward and the slowing down of Oz ball.

Charteris is now certain not to start the game on Saturday and I would say we would not miss his contribution in the lineout. Bradley davies carried well at times but he looked tired after 35 minutes.

Alyn Wyn and Ian Evans must start saturday. They both possess huge dynamism around the field and Evans is a great lineout operator. They both contest the breakdown fiercely, more so than both Charteris and Davies and will help at the fringes of the ruck to contain Genia. They add pace to the forwards.

Rees will start, owens was not at his best and struggled with the physicality. A power start needed by wales.

Priestland may start and it is largely dependent on Hooks performance in the first 40 against the Brumbies whether he will or not.

The Game Plan:

Wales must start fast on the weekend, we were all aware of there lack of dynamism around the field and they were caught cold in the first 40.

Stop Genia: Easier said than done I admit. How? Contest the breakdown fiercely with numbers. Wales were guilty of standing on ceremony both on their own ball and australias on saturday.

Wales must commit numbers to win the ball, its all very well having players stood out wanting to go wide but if you lose the ball, well...how can you?

Wales stood and expected the referee to control the breakdown for them. If he isn't the players need to fly in and adapt to the referees interpretations quicker. They must also commit numbers on Australian ball to disrupt the speed. This just wasnt the case on saturday. Players stood off and didn't number up properly, especially on the short side.

Genia is the best halfback in the world. Yes. If Wales can slow the ball down they must defend narrower to begin with. There were large holes between defenders (see 2nd half try by genia). That means defending from out to in. Forwards and backs must identify where the threats are and must be reponsible for man to man marking via positions when possible. Backs on backs, forwards on forwards.

Numerous times Genia spotted props defending areas too large where he could exploit them with his space. By defending narrower you reduce his threat. Wales should concede tries out wide not through the middle if anywhere at all. Phillips must take ownership over genia and literally man mark him.

If Genia does crab, Wales Cannot stand off him. The closest player must take him out quickly, if it is ever so slightly late, so be it. It will slow him down on getting to the next break down.

Kicking: High contestable kicks/long kicks. The kicking was aimless and poor, an overall improvement needed.
Composure: Wales must control the ball at rucks and go through multiple phases. Secure the ball.
Maul: Wales must maul a lot in the first 40, try to tie the forwards in and wear them down.

The Team:

1) Jenkins 2) Rees 3) Jones 4) Wyn Jones 5) Ian Evans 6) Lydiate 7) Warburton 8) R Jones

9) Phillips 10) Priestland 11) North 12) Williams (Becks defence is subject) 13) JD 14) Cuthbert 15) Halfpenny

16) Owens 17) James 18) B Davies 19) Tupuric 20) Williams 21) Hook 22) Beck

Apologies for the NOVEL!!!!

Permian - welcome, but it's quite clear from the content of your post that you don't properly understand the purpose of these threads.

Never, ever descend into magnanimousness, insight, intelligent analysis or tactical conjecture of the kind that you have foolishly chosen here.

We are looking for unsubstantiated hyperbole, bombastic WUMMing and cycloptic one-upmanship.

Don't worry, you'll soon pick it up.

by gowales Sun 10 Jun 2012, 4:51 pm

Ospreydragon wrote:"Wales massively underestimated Australia " -- They did not prepare properly, nor did they select the right team/squad. Who is responsible for that -- Howley or Gatland?

-- they were unprepared at the breakdown and were way off the pace of the game for most of the first half

-- re: pace of game, that must partly have been down to selection -- so many players who had not played for a while -- such as our captain, JD, SW, Charteris, BD. Other players chosen who are not in form -- such as Priestland (who was v poor) and Faletau, who was inconspicuous. I supose BD and Charteris had to be played becuase IE and AWJ were not available, but they could have considered RJ in the second row.

-- Beck should have started at 12
-- Biggar should have been on the tour and arguably started ahead of Priestland on form -- RP has been poor since and during the 6N
-- Byrne should have toured and at least been benched.
-- Arguably, Tipuric should have started (on form) and a temporary captain assigned (Warburton benched).

International rugby is about winning, not being overly loyal to players who have not played or are clearly not in form.

Got to agree with that and i'd add AWJ should have played screw his bloody sister's wedding, Ian Evans i can understand since it was his and he arranged it when he was injured.

...But most people aren't going to agree with me on that so i'll say that Ryan J should have started, our scrum isn't de-powered that much and he would have been very useful agains the Aussies from the start.

by **Biltong** Sun 10 Jun 2012, 4:54 pm

George Carlin wrote:
Permian88 wrote:Hi All, new to the board.

Wales have clearly missed the direction and tactical awareness of Gatland this weekend. Also, a number of these players were clearly undercooked, lacking the game sharpness needed to play at the top of the game.

Sam Warburton has been out for 11 weeks and looked slow to the breakdown and lacking the strength we have seen he has. This game will stand him in good stead for next week and I expect to see a dramatic increase in performance from him.

Toby Faletau, now ruled out of the tour, also looked jaded and was ineffectual for large parts of the game. Ryan Jones has been in imperious form is now a certain starter which will help our go forward and the slowing down of Oz ball.

Charteris is now certain not to start the game on Saturday and I would say we would not miss his contribution in the lineout. Bradley davies carried well at times but he looked tired after 35 minutes.

Alyn Wyn and Ian Evans must start saturday. They both possess huge dynamism around the field and Evans is a great lineout operator. They both contest the breakdown fiercely, more so than both Charteris and Davies and will help at the fringes of the ruck to contain Genia. They add pace to the forwards.

Rees will start, owens was not at his best and struggled with the physicality. A power start needed by wales.

Priestland may start and it is largely dependent on Hooks performance in the first 40 against the Brumbies whether he will or not.

The Game Plan:

Wales must start fast on the weekend, we were all aware of there lack of dynamism around the field and they were caught cold in the first 40.

Stop Genia: Easier said than done I admit. How? Contest the breakdown fiercely with numbers. Wales were guilty of standing on ceremony both on their own ball and australias on saturday.

Wales must commit numbers to win the ball, its all very well having players stood out wanting to go wide but if you lose the ball, well...how can you?

Wales stood and expected the referee to control the breakdown for them. If he isn't the players need to fly in and adapt to the referees interpretations quicker. They must also commit numbers on Australian ball to disrupt the speed. This just wasnt the case on saturday. Players stood off and didn't number up properly, especially on the short side.

Genia is the best halfback in the world. Yes. If Wales can slow the ball down they must defend narrower to begin with. There were large holes between defenders (see 2nd half try by genia). That means defending from out to in. Forwards and backs must identify where the threats are and must be reponsible for man to man marking via positions when possible. Backs on backs, forwards on forwards.

Numerous times Genia spotted props defending areas too large where he could exploit them with his space. By defending narrower you reduce his threat. Wales should concede tries out wide not through the middle if anywhere at all. Phillips must take ownership over genia and literally man mark him.

If Genia does crab, Wales Cannot stand off him. The closest player must take him out quickly, if it is ever so slightly late, so be it. It will slow him down on getting to the next break down.

Kicking: High contestable kicks/long kicks. The kicking was aimless and poor, an overall improvement needed.
Composure: Wales must control the ball at rucks and go through multiple phases. Secure the ball.
Maul: Wales must maul a lot in the first 40, try to tie the forwards in and wear them down.

The Team:

1) Jenkins 2) Rees 3) Jones 4) Wyn Jones 5) Ian Evans 6) Lydiate 7) Warburton 8) R Jones

9) Phillips 10) Priestland 11) North 12) Williams (Becks defence is subject) 13) JD 14) Cuthbert 15) Halfpenny

16) Owens 17) James 18) B Davies 19) Tupuric 20) Williams 21) Hook 22) Beck

Apologies for the NOVEL!!!!
Permian - welcome, but it's quite clear from the content of your post that you don't properly understand the purpose of these threads.

Never, ever descend into magnanimousness, insight, intelligent analysis or tactical conjecture of the kind that you have foolishly chosen here.

We are looking for unsubstantiated hyperbole, bombastic WUMMing and cycloptic one-upmanship.

Don't worry, you'll soon pick it up.

How can Wales beat Australia next week? - Page 2 Smiley-laughing021

George, let us not lead the innocent astray!

by **George Carlin** Sun 10 Jun 2012, 5:09 pm

I'm not sure if this helps or hinders the discussion but speaking briefly about why Scotland managed to sneak home against the Wallabies and Wales didn't, amongst other things the following defensive statistics (courtesy of ESPN Scrum.com) are worth a look:

Wales (tackes made/tackles missed)

Warbuton 14/0
Lydiate 14/1
Jenkins 11/3
Charteris 9/1
Priestland 9/0

(no other Welsh player made more than 5 tackles in the whole game)

Scotland (tackles made/ tackles missed)

Rennie 22/0
Strokosch 17/0
Gray 17/0
Murray 14/0
Ford 13/0
Kellock 13/0
Grant 12/0
Laidlaw 6/0
De Luca 6/0

(other Scots players made 5 tackles or less)

I bring this up only because I am fearful that Welsh fans are overstating the impact that the weather had on the match and perhaps understating the extent to which you can nullify the Australian squad.

You can do it. You just have to put your bodies on the line and stop them.

Scotland's win wasn't lucky. It just showed how much they didn't want to lose.

by **Biltong** Sun 10 Jun 2012, 5:14 pm

George you need to see those stats in context though.

Against Scotland , OZ had nearly 70% possession aand against Wales only 47%

rucks vs Scotland 120
rucks vs wales 80

by Cymroglan Sun 10 Jun 2012, 5:15 pm

It's easier to tackle in weather that makes passing the ball very difficult.
The weather had a huge impact on the Scotland match

by **George Carlin** Sun 10 Jun 2012, 5:17 pm

Biltong, I understand that but doesn't that make it worse for Wales?

If the other side have fewer opportunities to score, shouldn't there be, on average, fewer points against you? I may just be getting old and daft, of course. I think what I'm saying is that Scotland shut down a higher percentage of opposition attacks actually made.

by Guest Sun 10 Jun 2012, 5:17 pm

Don't let anyone suggest it was purely down to the weather, the Scots still had to do what they had to do to win, and that is all that counts.

I just wish you wouldn't wind them up by beating them just before they face us! Smile

by **Biltong** Sun 10 Jun 2012, 5:21 pm

Yes attack wise perhaps, they should have done more with the ball, but it shows they did control most of the possession and you also need to remember in the scotland Game OZ rarely went wide, in the match vs wales they went wide, but that is due to the rained game being more difficult for handling.

by Guest Sun 10 Jun 2012, 5:23 pm

The stats themselves could also suggest that Aus played better against Wales than against Scotland?

Stats don't tell the whole story is what I'm getting at!

by **Biltong** Sun 10 Jun 2012, 5:28 pm

Absolutely red dragon. Lets take nothng away from scotland's win, but it was two different teams, in two different sets of circumstances.

by **George Carlin** Sun 10 Jun 2012, 5:43 pm

Oh, I completely agree with you both - far too many variables to let us compare apples with apples. However, this brings me to my final rambly point which is to say that by the same token, it is worth nothing to suggest with confidence (as some on other threads seem to have done) that Scotland would definitely have lost on a sunny day in Brisbane and Wales would definitely have won on a rainy shoot-out in Newcastle.

That said, the weather probably did prevent Nick De Luca from getting yellow carded. Again. picard

by Guest Sun 10 Jun 2012, 5:54 pm

one thing I definitely know is that there is no definite in supposition! cider

by **Biltong** Sun 10 Jun 2012, 6:00 pm

rugby is similar to playing the lottery, you are chasing a variable, how do you outguess a variable?

Well you don't, you prepare your team to the best of their ability and hope they adapt when necessary.

by wales606 Sun 10 Jun 2012, 6:00 pm

Permian88 wrote:Cheers Red and Cymroglan, I think wales need to adopt a tighter game in the first 40:

1) Commit numbers to slow oz ball down and win our own.
2) Scrummage and Maul and give priestland and phillips the structure to make good contestable or territorial kicks.
3) We need not kick if we keep hold of the ball, tight pick and go's with numbers and it must be organised.

Too much poor ball control at rucks and kicks this weekend.

Not so sure about mauling, the Welsh forwards are sh*te at mauling.

But hopefully McBride will sort out the early engage and we can get some more penalties on our scrum rather than giving the opposition free kicks. picard

Pick and go's will be useful if we can control the ball at the back a lot better.

by wales606 Sun 10 Jun 2012, 6:01 pm

biltongbek wrote:rugby is similar to playing the lottery, you are chasing a variable, how do you outguess a variable?

Well you don't, you prepare your team to the best of their ability and hope they adapt when necessary.

Wait, its that how you win the lottery?!

Run

by **Biltong** Sun 10 Jun 2012, 6:03 pm

yep. you pick your numbers and stick with them, let the variable chase you. thumbsup

by wales606 Sun 10 Jun 2012, 6:14 pm

biltongbek wrote:yep. you pick your numbers and stick with them, let the variable chase you.

Right...so how exactly do I win the lottery? chin

by gowales Sun 10 Jun 2012, 6:16 pm

You cheat the system, that's also how the Allblack's win the majority of their matches.

by **Biltong** Sun 10 Jun 2012, 6:18 pm

Well similarly to the all Blacks (who love to stand in offside blocking positions at the ruck), you just stand and wait. Whistle

by Permian88 Sun 10 Jun 2012, 6:53 pm

George- Message recieved gratefully, will endeavour to wum more often.

Here it goes........

Craig Joubert was awful...thats why Wales lost!

That should do the trick? Very Happy

by **Biltong** Sun 10 Jun 2012, 6:54 pm

Permian88 wrote:George- Message recieved gratefully, will endeavour to wum more often.

Here it goes........

Craig Joubert was awful...thats why Wales lost!

That should do the trick?

Lesson number 2 Permian.

Blaming a referee isn't a wum, it is a ligitimate excuse, but remember you only get one per 4 year cycle. Whistle

by Permian88 Sun 10 Jun 2012, 6:57 pm

606.....

I know we are inherently bad at mauling, but, if this isn't in the game plan for saturday howley, Mc Bryde and co... need shooting! Obviously practice makes perfect so I doubt we will see much of it as they should be concentrating on the breakdown and Genia first!

by Permian88 Sun 10 Jun 2012, 7:03 pm

Bil..... I see, well, regarding the performance of Joubert:

1) Australians constantly offside at the breakdown.
2) OZ Players constantly off their feet at ruck time and no clear release by tackler.
3) Only Wales were asked to roll away after the tackle.
4) OZ players clearing out rucks coming in from the side.
5) Players coming in at the side of mauls.

I have watched the game again and said it at the time, Joubert only refereed one side at the breakdown. Wales. Stephen Jones of the Times today has also highlighted Jouberts performance as having some "Highly contentious decisions".

In other words, he was unfair and inconsistent.

Mark me down for 1 this year! Cheers

by **Biltong** Sun 10 Jun 2012, 7:09 pm

Permian, I remember during the Scotland match in the second part of the first half, Australia were on attack and hed a string of rucks where they went off their feet and "belly flopped" over the ball.

Must be honest I haven't watched the Wales match again.

One thing I can say for Joubert, he is a southern hemisphere referee and often interpretations does go more to the team from the hemishere of the referee.

I honestly don't think it is intentional.

by Permian88 Sun 10 Jun 2012, 7:16 pm

Whether it is intentional cannot be proven...i don't neccessarily believe this to be the case either.

But the evidence remains should the WRU wish to have an official review of his performance.

There are clear instructions given to Wales players at breakdowns. I recall once instance however whereby Joubert gives instructions to Pocock when Wales were attacking deep inside the oz 22.

The Instruction was " LEAVE IT 7" his hands remained, "hands off". As Pocock moved his hand he did so while pushing the ball out of the ruck.

He then regained his feet, Bradley Davies knocks the ball on and pocock regains possession.

Now, thats is a yellow card. He directly interefered with the ball that was quick ball in the red area and caused a loss of control and possession.

That is just one instance.

My worry is we have him for the third test.

by TJ1 Sun 10 Jun 2012, 9:33 pm

Don't blame the ref. Scotland showed you how to win - control the breakdown, deny the half backs space.

Scotland neutralised Pocock, Wales did not.

Scotland stole the ball off them a bunch of times

by slartibartfast Sun 10 Jun 2012, 9:40 pm

TJ wrote:
Scotland stole the ball off them a bunch of times

Wales did that but got penalised - I'll watch the match again if you like and I'll write it down when it happened

by Guest Sun 10 Jun 2012, 10:45 pm

Look, what Scotland did or didn't do, or what Aus did or didn't do, or what the ref did or didn't do, or whether it rained or not, wind gusted or not, has absolutely no bearing on what Wales did or didn't do, Aus did or didn't do, ref did or didn't do, Rain and wind etc in the 2 games... we lost, we were in it for a while despite a poor performance, lets move on, learn from it, improve our performance etc ffs

by blackcanelion Mon 11 Jun 2012, 12:31 am

I just read Bob Dwyers column in Green and Gold. He thinks wales have a real chance next week and I agree with him. His rational is they need to improve in two areas to make a significant difference:
1. Intensity,
2. Accuracy.

Wales blew a few scoring chances that you would normally expect them to get. The second issue is the speed of the game. SA, Ireland and Wales all struggled with the intensity of the game. I'm sure they'll be looking to speed up their own and slow down the opposition ruck ball.

The big question mark is how much they can lift their game. I expect all the SH teams to lift their game significantly this week, just through having some time together.

by emack2 Mon 11 Jun 2012, 2:39 am

Reality time,ALL the Tier One SH sides are as good or better than any NH time most of the time FACT.Australia ALWAYS have a great 9,good back row,and good backs FACT.You first need to tackle Genia as soon as he sniffs the ball,Jimmy Cowan was the most pedestrian 9 in the game.Passing was`nt great which for a 9 isn`t good BUT he was THE best defensive 9 inWorld Rugby.He just shut Genia down most of the time they played each other.THAT is the key don`t just stand watching him SCRAG him.No matter how good a 9 is if he`s on the ground or at the bottom of a Ruck he`s out of the game.To beat Australia you need a good start then keep your foot on there throat the whole 80.Yes most of the time the AllBlacks can match them try for try but ONLY them,The Boks or Ireland strangle them sometimes.THAT is the ONLY way to beat them.

by **Pal Joey** Mon 11 Jun 2012, 3:31 am

Precisely emack. However, Genia is a very slippery customer. Wales gave him far too much room and his innate abilities with the ball in hand made them pay the price. It's a unique skill which most NH/SA folk wouldn't understand and it can't be taught. Just watch kids playing footy here (on the beach, in the backyard or even in a grade match) - the footwork is tried and tested to another level!

George Carlin wrote: ...that Scotland would definitely have lost on a sunny day in Brisbane and Wales would definitely have won on a rainy shoot-out in Newcastle.

Totally agree George.

By the same token - if Wales played the Wallabies today in Sydney... Wales would win. 6" of rain... a miserable quagmire.
We'd get strangled, smothered, lose shape, panic and drop the ball but Wales would have to tackle their hearts out for 82 mins and land their penalty kicks!

Also I reckon the Brumbies would also lose here (today) in these conditions away from their home ground.

However, if it's going to be relatively fine in Canberra (fine day with fog... but no heavy rain is the forecast) then the Brumbies will be no push-over for even a second string Wales outfit.

They'll probably close the roof at Etihad so no advantages there. The win will have done wonders for the Wallabies' confidence but there's still a lot more work ahead. There's a slim chance Beale will be on the bench (pending further tests + judiciary hearing) and Sekope Kepu (strained forearm) will make way for Dan Palmer at tight head. Jake White will also be present at the training sessions to provide more assistance.

I'm hoping the Wallabies can win even better on Saturday but they'll have to up their game more and really take it to Wales, defend like packs of pitbulls, reduce the silly turnovers and no squandering of points there for the taking. steam

by nganboy Mon 11 Jun 2012, 5:08 am

"Wales should concede tries out wide not through the middle if anywhere at all"

"You cheat the system, that's also how the Allblack's win the majority of their matches.."

Attitudes like this are not going to help Wales win.
Concede no tries... worry about what you can control... take responsibility for your own performance.

by **George Carlin** Mon 11 Jun 2012, 6:00 am

Permian88 wrote:George- Message recieved gratefully, will endeavour to wum more often.

Here it goes........

Craig Joubert was awful...thats why Wales lost!

That should do the trick?

by Full Credit Mon 11 Jun 2012, 6:45 am

I don't think it's all doom for Wales. They were outgunned on the weekend but played well in patches. Our record is something like 17 wins from 20 at Suncorp with only the kiwi's ever getting the better of us there so it's obviously a bit of a graveyard for touring sides. Wales will need a lift in intensity and physicality at the breakdown and be a lot more precise with their passing and catching. If they can keep that up for 80 then they'll be a real chance.

Australia will be a different side as well next week after a rest and a few training runs together. The Wallabies lost their way right after Barnes knocked over the field goal and they leaked 16 points in about as many minutes which let Wales right back into it. I'm hoping that was just fatigue and not a repeat of the recent trend whereby we get out to a good lead and then fall asleep assuming the job's done. The fresh legs seemed to help so I'll put it down to a combination of fatigue and good Welsh play (the pop pass to Cuthbert was nicely done). I should be grateful that at least Dingo used the bench this time. Aus won't be happy with the high penalty count and, although I thought Barnes played his best game in a long time, there were still a few kicks that we could have done without.

All things considered I was very relieved to get the win as I (along with pretty much everyone else) thought we were there for the taking with injuries and no preparation but to their credit the boys came out fired up and ready to play. Next week will be a much better gauge of what these teams are capable of. Wales should come out a lot hungrier and physical and the Wallabies will be rested and have a chance to work on some combinations (and Rob Horne can practise passing the ball to someone). The weather will obviously be perfect under the roof so it should be a great contest. Hopefully we can get someone else to do the anthems this time.

by **Biltong** Mon 11 Jun 2012, 7:08 am

I think it will get tougher for Wales now, Deans has another week, he has some feedback from the two games already played, he will be more sure who must play where, and next week will be even tougher for Wales.

by TJ1 Mon 11 Jun 2012, 9:20 am

Red_Dragon_Spirit wrote:Look, what Scotland did or didn't do, or what Aus did or didn't do, or what the ref did or didn't do, or whether it rained or not, wind gusted or not, has absolutely no bearing on what Wales did or didn't do, Aus did or didn't do, ref did or didn't do, Rain and wind etc in the 2 games... we lost, we were in it for a while despite a poor performance, lets move on, learn from it, improve our performance etc ffs

I disagree - they can learn from what Scotland did which was to boss the breakdown and deny the half backs space - thats what Scotland did better and why they won and thats the lesson to learn

by bedfordwelsh Mon 11 Jun 2012, 9:40 am

Our play at the breakdown was very poor and thats where the game was one and lost.

If we can at least compete there next week then we are in with a shot but if its like it was for the first 40 then its 2-nil to Australia

by **Biltong** Mon 11 Jun 2012, 9:42 am

Fast ball.

by Gordy Mon 11 Jun 2012, 10:08 am

One thing - mentality. Wales just dont have it when it comes to the SH sides. Wales need to believe they can win. Not just settle for coming close and a hard luck story which has been the case all too often with them regarding the tri nation sides.

by **George Carlin** Mon 11 Jun 2012, 10:16 am

Gordy - to be fair I don't think that attitude was their problem - they did come back within a point and were always looking to break. It was just poor handling and simple mistakes that undid them.

But they definitely need fast ball and need Philips to realise he is hindering his team by not providing it and by not sticking all over Genia (that is easier said than done, admittedly). Wales thought that they would win the tight five battle and they didn't really. They need to use the ball they get more efficiently and you can bet your backside that's what Gatland will be telling them to do from his Barcalounger right now.

by **Biltong** Mon 11 Jun 2012, 10:18 am

Teams often expect to beat the australian tight five and then don't.

That's the problem with perceptions, you start classing a team's abilities in a certain category and then it comes back to bite you.

by Gordy Mon 11 Jun 2012, 10:27 am

George Carlin wrote:Gordy - to be fair I don't think that attitude was their problem - they did come back within a point and were always looking to break. It was just poor handling and simple mistakes that undid them.

But they definitely need fast ball and need Philips to realise he is hindering his team by not providing it and by not sticking all over Genia (that is easier said than done, admittedly). Wales thought that they would win the tight five battle and they didn't really. They need to use the ball they get more efficiently and you can bet your backside that's what Gatland will be telling them to do from his Barcalounger right now.

It was the same in the world cup though - close but no cigar. Ifs, buts and maybes. This is what happens at the highest levels. Scotland fans would have you believe they would have won the Grand Slam if it wasnt for the odd botched finishing manouver!

Wales need to leave leave the inferiority complex behind when it come to the Tri Nations and believe they can win. They would have no chance against NZ but on paper they should have the quality to manage at least one win on tour against the likes of Australia or South Africa. But they need the belief!

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