Political round up.............

First topic message reminder :

The best thing about our system is that every single person in the country gets an equal vote under equal circumstances. Unless a National ID card scheme is introduced this will just alienate poorer voters. Just another way to rig the system.

Well thank god you’re here to keep me right

I don't side with Duty or SR often, but nothing has been provided to back the claim up other than "yeah, he probably did it because I don't like him".

I probably am letting my own predujices get in the way, but given his character and track record of dishonesty I dont think its an entirely unfair accusation.

Samo wrote:I probably am letting my own predujices get in the way, but given his character and track record of dishonesty I dont think its an entirely unfair accusation.

Not quite how it works, accusations tend to need some actual evidence to back them up.

Thing is with Rees Mogg is that it is hard to imagine him making solid, informed decisions about anything, at least not without the help of his nanny, Ms Klebb.

By-election in Birmingham Erdington tomorrow. It has returned a Labour MP in every election since the war, but the Labour majority was 10% at the last GE, down from 32.5% in 2001. If this by-election had been held last year, Labour may have been fearing a blue turnover. As things currently stand, though, with Labour's narrow national lead in the polls it should be a simple hold and presumably an extension of their majority. Labour are best price 1/33 to win, with some bookmakers even being so tight as to offer 1/100.

How hard the Tory vote gets hit from its 40% share in 2019 will be interesting to see. None of the other parties even retained their deposit in 2019 in this constituency.

The dial hardly moved. Labour up by 5%, Tories down by 4%, all the other parties didn't retain a deposit. TUSC managed 3rd.

Turnout was a dismal 27% in a constituency which has recorded much lower than average turnouts since 2001.

French Presidential election coming up in April. Looks like it'll be Macron v Le Pen part deux, and Le Pen is closing in in the crucial second round polling:

Elabe - Macron's lead down from 22% to 5% in three weeks
Opinionway - Macron's lead down from 18% to 10% in three weeks
Ipsos - Macron's lead down from 20% to 10% in three weeks
Ifop - Macron's lead down from 15% to 7% in three weeks

Macron should still have enough to hold on, but this recent upsurge in Le Pen's momentum will leave him worried.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/29/macron-kickstarts-re-election-campaign-as-le-pen-gains-ground
https://www.france24.com/en/france/20220331-closing-in-on-macron-could-le-pen-s-blandest-campaign-be-her-most-successful-yet

Atlas-politico.

Lepen 50.5% +17
Macron 49.5% -17

That's the first poll to put Le Pen in the lead. Macron is in real crisis because of the French economy and cost-of-living spiralling out of control. A lot of 'left-wing' voters are reluctant to vote for him and may abstain. Le Pen has run a more moderate campaign than previous years, and has been helped by Zemmour who is seen as the extremist at this election.

Macron's average lead is about 5-6%, but there's still 17 days until the crucial second round. Le Pen's come in from about 8/1 to 10/3 in recent weeks.

Ipsos - Macron down from 8% on April 1st to 6% now.
Opinionway - Macron stays at 6%.
IFOP - Macron down from 6% to 4%.
YouGov - Macron down from 8% to 2%.
Odoxa - Macron down from 16% to 10%.
Atlas - Le Pen up by 1%.

Macron best do something, otherwise it'll be Madame President (that isn't Hillary).

First round on Sunday, but it looks a near-formality for Le Pen to join Macron in the second round, she's a steady 5-7% ahead of Melenchon.

In the UK, Sunak's popularity has finally fallen off the cliff, which was inevitable. Should end his leadership prospects. Labour still in a small lead a month out from the local elections.

How are we all voting in the local elections, dear 606v2ers? I've just got Lib/Lab/Con/Grn where I am, in a safe Labour spot, so may as well not bother.

Yougov..

Macron 51
Lepen...49

Standard of living problems make People scapegoat immigrants..

I imagine electric bills and other irritations are hitting households in Francais..

Duty281 wrote:Ipsos - Macron down from 8% on April 1st to 6% now.
Opinionway - Macron stays at 6%.
IFOP - Macron down from 6% to 4%.
YouGov - Macron down from 8% to 2%.
Odoxa - Macron down from 16% to 10%.
Atlas - Le Pen up by 1%.

And Elabe also 51-49 Macron, down from 53-47 earlier in the week,

The collapse in support for Sunak has been bloomin' hilarious to watch. What an absolute tool.

Pr4wn wrote:The collapse in support for Sunak has been bloomin' hilarious to watch. What an absolute tool.

Started off by him demonstrating he doesnt know how to pay for a can of coke. Its been quite incredible. Im seeing less and less support across social media for the Tories (once you filter out the more obvious bots). They’re lucky there isnt a GE anytime soon, Labour really need to capitalise on this and make good grounds in the upcoming locals.

It's all fun and games until a Tory has to act like a normal person

Exit poll

Lepen 24%
Macron 24%
Melenchon 19%

Quite widely conflicting numbers, but it seems that Macron and Le Pen will make round two, as expected.

If it is 28% Macron, 23% Le Pen, as is the one the BBC are reporting, it seems that the polling has got Le Pen's figures right, but Macron slightly light by 1-2%, which may bode well for the incumbent going into the second. The election will likely be decided by Melenchon's 20% and how they break in the second round.

Disaster for the mainstream, though. The Conservative candidate at 5%, the Socialists at 2%, the Greens at 4%.

Close enough to 27.5% Macron and 23.5% Le Pen in the actual first round results. Big surprise was Melenchon reaching 22%, exceeding his polling figures by 4-5%, and being very close to actually knocking Le Pen out (about 500,000 votes away). Melenchon's vote may have been somewhat inflated by voters who wanted Le Pen out in the first round, knowing his was the only candidature that could accomplish that.

The main event is now on. Macron's average lead is still around 5% currently and he's the 1/9 favourite.

Likely an unwelcome by-election, for the Tories, coming up in Wakefield soon. The sitting MP was found guilty yesterday of an appalling crime and subsequently expelled from the Tory party. For now, he's still sitting as an independent, but he will lose his seat if sentenced for a year or more. If that doesn't happen a recall petition will likely end his time as an MP.

The seat in question was won by the Tories by a margin of 47.3%-39.8% in 2019. It is exactly the type of seat Labour should expect to be winning at this stage.

There might be a second by-election the way Crispin Blunt is carrying on.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:There might be a second by-election the way Crispin Blunt is carrying on.

Disgraceful comments. I find it increasingly absurd how most notably politicians are incapable of keeping some opinions to themselves, it's not difficult to avoid posting every little thought on the internet.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:There might be a second by-election the way Crispin Blunt is carrying on.

He has forever entered the lexicon of cockney rhyming slang now. Pretty apt for his character.

Well it appears that the Prime Minister is officially a big f*cking liar.

Ian Craig of Sky News has raised the delicious scenario of Sunak resigning over this, thus heaping even more pressure on Johnson to go. There might not be enough popcorn in the world if that happens.

If Johnson had any integrity at all, or any respect for Parliament, he would resign.
He won't resign.

It's a simple test now of whether Conservative MPs will do the right thing. Odds are that they'll fail that test.

Early indications are that they're going to hide behind the war in Ukraine, the cowards.

If Sunak believes his career in politics is done, and he thinks No. 10 threw him under the bus then he could resign to heap more pressure on Johnson to do the same. “If I’m going down then you’re coming with me.”

However, both are shameless, lying, selfish Kumquat who should have resigned immediately. Johnson will use the Ukraine crisis as an excuse, and hope people will forget by the time that situation is resolved.

I havent lost anyone to Covid and Im more angry at this lot than I’ve ever been, I cant begin to imagine how someone who has lost someone is feeling.

He's an absolute c*nt and the fact he may get away with it shows how low we've sunk as a country. I've no idea how anyone can be proud to be British these days.

It's got to the point where even I agree that the pair should resign but do understand from a party point of view why that hasn't happened. A new leader needs a clean slate and wants to avoid any ripples from partygate, I wouldn't vote for the current iteration of Labour (Cooper or Benn please!!!) but the Lib Dems are becoming a very real possibility.

Still cant believe the shamelessness of the sycophants using the Ukraine conflict (a war that we’re not fighting in incase anyone had forgot) as a reason for keeping him in power. Its abhorent and indefensible.

Might aswell rip up the rulebook, the law doesnt matter anymore.

There are still some people arguing that he didn't break the law, as it was only a fixed penalty notice. I got a FPN for speeding - was I not breaking the law?

Only if you were speeding for more than 10 minutes and took your cake out of the tupperware.

I’d wager these thick c*nts dont even understand what a FPN is.

Share of voters who think Johnson...Should resign: 61%/Will resign: 10%
Share of voters who think Sunak.... Should resign 59%/Will resign 15%

via @SavantaComRes

And Sunak's net favourability with the same polling company falls below Johnson, after dropping an astonishing 26% in a month. Labour's poll lead currently around 4-6%, we'll see how much damage this will do to the Tories polling and local election prospects very soon.

Truss currently the 9/2 favourite to be next party leader, Sunak at 7/1 (but surely a dead duck). Lot of money on Tugendhat and Ben Wallace in recent days.

Duty281 wrote:Lot of money on Tugendhat....

Nah - he's going to Man Utd.

Used to enjoy your jokes, Julius, but the news that you got fined for speeding and still retained your membership of the prestigious 'Morning Tea Society' has rocked me to the very core.

Have to confess I didn't get fined for speeding, although I did have to pay for a speed awareness course. I got my chauffeur to attend, as he should have been driving in the first place.

Indeed he should have been. You should fire that chauffeur and bring in someone who knows what he's doing, like Leopold Lojka.

The whole refugees to Rwanda debacle proves the age old mantra from the utter Kumquat in politics playbook: when in a bit of a pickle (being a law breaker and proven liar AGAIN) go after the ruddy foreigners and trigger the usual camps, get them up in arms and shouting at each other, then sit back and ride out the storm that is you being a lawbreaker and proven liar (again)...

It's all so short-termist, that's the most depressing thing about it. It replaces partygate as the top domestic story, but only very briefly. It's likely not to even go ahead. But it's all about riling up the base. It's just so tedious. I wonder though how damaging partygate has been in terms of trust in him among that base.

I keep thinking of how a 40%-odd vote share translates into an 80-seat majority....

It wasn't the worst election I've seen, for reasons of proportionality. The Tories are a bit over-represented though, with 43.6% of the vote equalling 56% of the MPs. However that is generally the way it goes with winning parties in FPTP elections and isn't quite on the same level of over-representation as Labour under Blair. The party that finishes second tend to have roughly equal proportion of seats to their votes, as is the case here with Labour's 32% of the vote getting 31% of the MPs.

It is, as usual, the third biggest party in terms of votes that gets shafted by FPTP (usually the Lib Dems, once UKIP, once the Alliance) and such is the case here - the Lib Dems got 11.5% of the vote, but not even 2% of MPs.

Nice undercard match in the Commons right now before the main event at half four, Yvette Cooper ripping Patel to pieces over her Rwanda people trafficking deal.

In news that will shock no one, Johnson's tone in the private meeting with Tory MPs was reportedly completely different to his, ahem, contrition in the Commons hours earlier.

Still trying to work out why Boris is personally essential to the conflict in Ukraine

It's laughable, isn't it? The idea that Johnson's successor would have radically different policies, and that Johnson's personally masterminding the UK's strategic response.

GSC wrote:Still trying to work out why Boris is personally essential to the conflict in Ukraine

He isn't but in his mind, this plays to his, erm, strengths. He idolises Churchill who pretty much hated and feared the Russians so Boris, although he would never admit it, probably has a massive hard on for the Ukraine war. This is his Churchill moment.

In his deluded, pathologically lying brain, he probably thinks he can trump all his past misdemeanors if he is the strongman standing up to Russian aggression. He will say and do anything not to miss this moment in history.

Clearly that is rank amateur psychology on my part but I don't reckon I am that far away.

I'd also stake a punt at the parties aren't defensible so pretending he's in any way essential is the only deflection tactic available

Might be positioning Boris as the sacrificial lamb for local elections at this point

A rough week gets rougher for old Alex as the Commons nods through a motion, and he will now be investigated by the Priviledges Committee to determine if he intentionally misled Parliament.

With more fines likely to come, it looks like its time to start looking at odds for the next PM, with a massacre in the local elections looking likely I wouldnt fancy taking the job on just now.

Should be a rough ride for the Tories in the local elections, but I doubt it'll be too concerning. The poll lead that Labour currently enjoy is around the same as in the 2013 local elections. In those local elections, the Tories lost 335 councillors and were still able to win the General Election two years later.

For this lot of local elections most of the seats up for grabs were last contested in 2018, which was a year Labour did well, so Tory losses in 2022 shouldn't be too heavy. If they keep the loss of councillors to around 300, that'll be OK. If it's heavier than that then things do start to be concerning. May's Tories lost 1,330 councillors in the 2019 LEs when she was on her way out, and Major's Tories were regularly suffering huge losses (including over 2,000 in 1995) on his way to the landslide defeat in 1997.

Tory apathy may play a key role. If they stay at home next month, Johnson's losses could be in the high hundreds, perhaps creeping to the 1,000 number, which would be tough to see off. If they remain loyal and turn out to vote, then the blue losses stay in the low hundreds and Johnson can ride it out (at least for now).

And, of course, it'll be crucial to see where the seats are going. If it's Labour hoovering up the map then there's clear appetite for a Labour government, and Labour MPs can go to their kitchen sink and prepare for such government. But if we see the third party making plenty of gains, that does not signal a change of government in the offing. And it is a big set of elections for Starmer's Labour, as they performed dismally last year.