Next player to win their 1st slam

So, after Thiem finally broke through to win US Open, who do people think will be the next player to win their 1st slam? Got a feeling this poll may not last quite as long as the previous one, but who knows!

MrI - I've gone for Tsitsipas. Yes, this wait for a new Slam champ may not be as long as the previous one.

But I still think this topic could be up and running for a while. Thiem, to me, seemed the likeliest to break thru and has now done so.

He could now add to his GS new York triumph, but I also think that
Rafa and Djoko will continue to chalk up Slam titles. Normally I would add Federer to the list but we don't know how he's going to play in the new year after being out for so long. He's also going to be 40 in 2021.

Having reached the final of Wimbledon Berrettini is now the obvious other candidate to be added to this list. If we look at the last 4 slams, the runners up have been:
Zverev (US Open)
Medvedev (Aus Open)
Tsitsipas (Roland Garros)
Berrettini (Wimbledon)

So it stands to reason one of these 4 is the most likely to break through and win their first slam. I voted for Tsitsipas on this, but with the 2 hardcourt slams coming up next in sequence, Medvedev probably has the best chance coming up, as out of the 4 he is arguably the best on the hard courts.

MrInvisible wrote:So, after Thiem finally broke through to win US Open...

With Federer & Nadal absent & Djokovic defaulting in fourth round, it was not the sort of break-through envisaged.  It was just the best of the rest at that time.

Mr. I... you have two Canadians in that list - AA and Shapo.

Temperamentally, Medvedev is strongest of the four, IMO, but Clay and Grass are not his forte. Thiem would have been my choice, but injuries and not keeping it together for a full season seem to be his Achilles' heel.

I can't see Berrettini reaching another GS final, not with such a poor BH and poor returns.

I see that back in October I opted for Tsitsi. Well, he did reach the French final and went two sets up, so he has been close.

Zverev will have to improve his serving - he was dreadful in that respect in his Wimbledon defeat - before he has a chance.

I'm not sure about Medvedev. He's reached two GS finals and did fantastically in the first. But I don't think he has any more of a chance than the other maiden-slam chasers.

As for the Canadians, Shapovalov has the talent but still, to me, plays like a kid who wants to show off his shots rather than grind out a win.

F AA looks to have a good all-round game and has a chance.

laverfan wrote:Mr. I... you have two Canadians in that list - AA and Shapo.

Temperamentally, Medvedev is strongest of the four, IMO, but Clay and Grass are not his forte. Thiem would have been my choice, but injuries and not keeping it together for a full season seem to be his Achilles' heel.

Thiem has won a slam - although the US was fairly forgettable last year.

I think I’ll go for Shapovalov. He has more of an X factor about him that the other options and he looked so close to putting it all together in the SF at Wimbledon. He will hopefully have learnt from that and won’t make the same mistakes next time.

Born Slippy wrote:

laverfan wrote:Mr. I... you have two Canadians in that list - AA and Shapo.

Temperamentally, Medvedev is strongest of the four, IMO, but Clay and Grass are not his forte. Thiem would have been my choice, but injuries and not keeping it together for a full season seem to be his Achilles' heel.

Thiem has won a slam - although the US was fairly forgettable last year.

As you said, it was indeed forgettable (and forgotten).

And the answer is.....Medvedev. I suppose it had to be him after I'd kinda written his chances off.

Reckon we could start this all over again and if we did the favourites for their first slam would have to be Zverev and bog-break Tsitsipas.

Is there anyone else? F AA is moving in the right direction and it will be interesting to see how well Alcaraz does.

If Murray, Stan the Man, Rafa and Thiem can get themselves fit enough to play in Melbourne, the men's draw might actually include a reasonable collection of Slam winners.

At the moment, even a first round match in the women's can feature two GS champions.

Have to reckon that if we ran this competition again, Zverev would be on most people's lists.

Next up I guess would have to be Tsitsipas whose extravagant bog breaks last summer have at last prompted the ATP to limit toilet time.

Outside these two, who next? Is it too early to talk about Sinner or Alcaraz? May be, but they will surely be serious contenders ere long.

sirfredperry wrote:Have to reckon that if we ran this competition again, Zverev would be on most people's lists.

Next up I guess would have to be Tsitsipas whose extravagant bog breaks last summer have at last prompted the ATP to limit toilet time.

Outside these two, who next? Is it too early to talk about Sinner or Alcaraz? May be, but they will surely be serious contenders ere long.

Couldn't remember whether I, or anyone else, had mentioned Alcaraz in this topic. I see from the above that I did talk about the Spaniard, and Sinner, at the end of last year.

Doubt whether Alcaraz himself, or the guys including A. Murray who predicted he'd eventually reach the top, thought he'd get to number one, or win a Slam, so soon.

The amazing stat is that he actually had almost 18 months in hand (around Feb 2024) to be the youngest numero uno. Lleyton Hewitt was 20yrs 9months when he reached the top, so Alcaraz, at 19yrs 4months, has really smashed the record.

There were several factors that went into Alcaraz becoming the youngest numero uno, and some records are less significant in assessing someones importance when it comes to the history of a sport than others. Marcelo Ríos reached the number one ranking as well. However, Alcaraz has generated a lot of excitement with his appearance and seems to be an exceptional player that could become a dominant force in tennis in the post top four (three) era.

I see no-one did choose Alcaraz in this (no-one picked 'other' and he wasn't on my list). Just goes to show how quick and impressive his rise to the top has been. I had a feeling back in the Spring he would have a chance at this year's US Open, though felt the first slam was more realistically going to come next year. Glad to have been proven wrong! Next year I'm going to be really intrigued to see how Alcaraz does at Wimbledon - he has the potential to dominate there too, given his comfort at the net, including serve and volley

I'm starting to get doubts about Tsitsipas - he seems to have stagnated over the last year or so - think he's struggling mentally a bit and would benefit from a new coach. Zverev I felt sorry for on the injury - really felt he was on verge of making his breakthrough. However he is pretty consistent at all 4 slams (unlike Tsitsipas) so you feel he will get more chances.

I would say that a fit Zverev would be the guy next likely to win their first Slam.

Would Sinner come into the mix do you think? If Tiafoe shows the same form he displayed in New York he, too, might come into the reckoning.

This thread is now more than three years old and I've revived it as we now have another first-time Slam winner in Sinner.

Medvedev was identified three years ago as a possible GS champ and that was a good call.

It was generally thought on the thread that Alcaraz's time would come later than it actually did (at Wimbledon 2023). Instead there was more talk of Tsitsipas being the most likely guy to win his first Slam.

Sinner was mentioned but few would have predicted he would make such a sudden, successful surge in the last few months.

So who next? A fit-again Zverev, possibly. Rune, maybe. It could be that with all the top four having a GS title under their belts we might have to wait a while for another first-Slam winner.

I'm not so sure - with Nadal not fully fit and obviously closing on the end of his career, and Djokovic coming off a disappointing AO (by the standards of someone who simply never loses there), there's the possibility of another winner at RG. Of the younger members of the top 4, Alcaraz is probably the best clay courter, although all three are better hard court players. Rublev / Zverev appear to me to be guys who are good enough to challenge for Slams but maybe not consistent enough to win them (at least with any regularity) - could be an opportunity for Rune or Tsitsipas to nick a title?

sirfredperry wrote:This thread is now more than three years old and I've revived it as we now have another first-time Slam winner in Sinner.

Medvedev was identified three years ago as a possible GS champ and that was a good call.

It was generally thought on the thread that Alcaraz's time would come later than it actually did (at Wimbledon 2023). Instead there was more talk of Tsitsipas being the most likely guy to win his first Slam.

Sinner was mentioned but few would have predicted he would make such a sudden, successful surge in the last few months.

So who next? A fit-again Zverev, possibly. Rune, maybe. It could be that with all the top four having a GS title under their belts we might have to wait a while for another first-Slam winner.

Alcaraz was the US open in 2022, Wimbledon was his second slam.

SR - Yeah, I got that wrong, didn't I. Stupid mistake to make. Who do you think will be the next new GS winner?

By the end of 2022 Jannik Sinner (aged 21) had reached the QF of all four slams.  That was a strong indicator that he was the real deal and would eventually go on to win slams and maybe multiple slams.  As yet I don't see that among other young players yet to win a grand slam.   However I have to give a shout to Ben Shelton who seems to have the mindset and the weapons to win a slam in maybe the next two years or so.  Rune, Ruud, Hurkurz also seem like possible future slam winners.  

I am waiting for Zverev to win his first slam - and I believe it is only a matter of time.  It was a pity he got injured in 2022 - when I thought he was getting the better of Rafael Nadal in the 2022 semi-final, after defeating Alcaraz in the quarter-final - which has delayed him getting that first slam. Ps: I should add that Zverev seems to have had some personal issues - at least the media have gone after him to some degree regarding alleged treatment with a girlfriend / former girlfriend or something.

sirfredperry wrote:SR - Yeah, I got that wrong, didn't I. Stupid mistake to make. Who do you think will be the next new GS winner?

With Nadal on his way out and Djokovic starting to show some signs of age I think i'd be backing Ruud to win the French within a couple of years. There's not a huge amount of emerging talent out there so the mid 20's guys might actually start winning.

Rune or Fritz

I think what's interesting with the players who have broken through to win a slam. they have a good if not spectacular backhand. There are lots of very good players but most have good serve/ forehand but the best players expose players with weakness on backhand side.

Tsitsipas, Fritz and Berritini just to name some players are very good but players go after the backhand and break it down. You look at the few guys to break through and win a slam in recent years like Sinner, Alcaraz and Medvedev, they can rally all day long if needed but don't throw in 40 unforced errors or very rarely do so you really have to be really solid to beat them.

For this reason I am surprised Zverev has not won a slam yet as he has an excellent backhand, I think he has challenges mentally though. Then there are other players like Rublev who have no plan B if ball bashing doesn't work. I think Rune has the game and shots but he is petulant and I would say a nitemare to work with! No surprise he is giving raducanu a run for her money on coach changes.

I am going for Zverev to be next to win a slam if he can finally overcome mental demons