Political round up.............

First topic message reminder :

Soft thread split, hard thread split, no-deal thread split. Who gives a sh!t as long as we get a thread split by the 15:35 deadline.

The real problem for me was the way the original question is open to misinterpretation.

Leave or Remain was insufficient. as it was too simple for a very complicated issue. If you were to poll everybody who voted Leave would they all say they voted to Leave on a No Deal - I greatly doubt it. That being said those that voted Leave and craved a No Deal I'd bet a great deal on it being below the 50% mark of the total votes. That being said No Deal should be off the table.

There is another way to settle this mess and that is a clarifying referendum. The options being No Deal or May's Deal or Remain. All parties should respect it as everyone has a chance of getting what they want. It stops the posturing and bickering which is getting us nowhere and it is a way to ending the empasse as if No Deal wins out then Remainers cannot then claim it is not what the majority want.

I do not buy into this talk that another referendum is undemocratic given that the original referendum was not crystal clear that Leave meant No Deal.

Not sure how the Govt of unity will work....If say Beckett gets the PM job she will have to appoint ministers...

I imagine Corbyn will insist on jobs for his SC and the Tories and Lib Dems will insist on jobs....

Not sure how they agree on who does what and the division of Labour.

I'm not sure how much it would matter if they stick to what they said.

New PM is in, goes to Brussells, agrees an extension, they call an election for early November. Parliament would then pretty much need to be shut down straight away.

Cabinet ministers being put in place would just be going through the motions really.

New PM would need at least a few months...

Need all the main offices of State covering...Johnson's Govt would be dissolved..

Someone has to be in charge of these portfolios..If the Lib Dems don't want Corbyn most likely they would veto McDonnell as well...

Be a headache.....

I genuinely don't understand why the new PM would need a few months?

They are only forming it to ensure an extension for Brexit and to call a GE, so in my simple brain, that is weeks at most.

In my head, if the government lost a VONC today, the timing could be as quickly as:

1 Oct - lost VONC
15 Oct - deadline for government to get enough support or opposition form unity government
17 Oct-18 Oct - new PM travels to Brussels and the EU agree to extension at EU Council
21 Oct - motion and vote for snap GE
22 Oct - Parliament dissolved
28 Nov - General Election

There won't be a VONC till Johnson comes back from the EU with another deal....

Never murder a Man who is committing suicide..

There will be a VONC but there won't be a GE in December..

Anything can happen if the weather is crap and icy everywhere etc.

Why I think a National Unity Govt should it happen lasts a couple of months..

I can see a GNU agreeing to hold a referendum. But then they'll argue about the wording for months.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:There won't be a VONC till Johnson comes back from the EU with another deal....

Never murder a Man who is committing suicide..

There will be a VONC but there won't be a GE in December..

Anything can happen if the weather is crap and icy everywhere etc.

Why I think a National Unity Govt should it happen lasts a couple of months..

If he comes back with a deal or an extension, then we won't need a VONC.

Unless BoJo backtracks on his own calls for an election, which would be further suicide.

His deal will be rejected......Then there will be a VONC..

I see the Home Secretary gave a speech about clamping down on antisocial behaviour while the Chairman of the 1922 committee was being arrested for brawling...

He has been found guilty of having a glass jaw.

Rory Stewart standing down at the next election and leaving the Conservatives

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49931937

Another one of the sensible Tories that centrists would consider voting for has been forced to leave by the morons

You have to wonder if this exodus (forced or otherwise) of moderate Tory MPs will be matched by an abandonment of the party by moderate Tory voters.

@BamBam: Exactly. Whilst I think Stewart was a bit over-hyped in media during Tory leadership campaign for talking a bit of sense and looking reasonable, this is part of a trend where many capable Tory MPs who could appeal to broader electorate have left/been forced out of the party - Hammond, Clarke, Rudd, Gauke, Woolaston, Greening.

Whilst I acknowledge that most of the above have voted for disability cuts, bedroom tax, NHS privatisation and other pretty regressive right-wing measures, nevertheless these MPs have provided some form of counter-balance to the likes of Priti Patel and Dominic Raab on the other wing of the party. It does look to me that the Tory party is going through a rapid transformation into a scary Brexit Party/Republican Tea Party hard-right party.

I thought the agenda of Cameron's coalition government was v right-wing but May and Johnson governments appear to have shifted further rightwards, and without the moderating voices of Stewart & co, this is likely to become more pronounced. Mainstream media portray Corbyn as the dangerous one, yet its the agenda of Johnson & his pals that poses the biggest danger to the country.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:You have to wonder if this exodus (forced or otherwise) of moderate Tory MPs will be matched by an abandonment of the party by moderate Tory voters.

Have to ask why so many moderate Tories find it so easy to just join the Lib Dems...

What do the Lib Dems stand for ???...

Worrying for some more 'moderate' Lib Dems I imagine..

Completely agree, the Tories are moving even further right, and Labour look to be hard left. There's a gaping chasm for someone in the centre, for people like me who feel no affiliation to either of the big parties at the moment.

I would describe myself as economically conservative, but socially liberal - I can't see a party to vote for that doesn't compromise one of those views.

Sounds like Stewart might be standing as an independent candidate for Mayor of London though, think he could do pretty well in the election

Centrism never changes anything....It papers over the cracks...

If Blair is a Centrist.....Illegal wars...PFI...Cutting Ted tape in the City...Cutting workers rights...90 day detention...

You can keep it...

Labour has gone too far left but this Country and the US needs change..

Centrism isn't the answer.

Centrist Lib Dem to moderate the hard left weirdos in Labour could be quite useful for the country.

Afro wrote:In my head, if the government lost a VONC today, the timing could be as quickly as:

1 Oct - lost VONC
15 Oct - deadline for government to get enough support or opposition form unity government
17 Oct-18 Oct - new PM travels to Brussels and the EU agree to extension at EU Council
21 Oct - motion and vote for snap GE
22 Oct - Parliament dissolved
28 Nov - General Election

I'm afraid Swinson is worried three weeks of Corbyn as PM will lead to a poll boost for LABOUR...and Corbyn won't let anyone else do it and rightly so..

18 Mps shouldn't have the power to get what they want..

Silly game playing..

It really isn't Lib Dem votes that are stopping Corbyn getting in. He's short by more than their votes.

Puts him over 300....He will have a bigger mandate than Johnson plus the DUP at 299.....

Let us leave it I'm not sure I can have a conversation with a guy who disregards People who want more Equality and Social justice as weirdos..

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Centrism never changes anything....It papers over the cracks...

If Blair is a Centrist.....Illegal wars...PFI...Cutting Ted tape in the City...Cutting workers rights...90 day detention...

You can keep it...

Labour has gone too far left but this Country and the US needs change..

Centrism isn't the answer.

You are falling into the trap which really has completely engulfed the Labour party. That is that you want to impose change without thinking about what the bulk of people actually want. 'because it is what is good for them'.

One of my biggest complaints about Chairman Corbyn is that he seems to have such an idealised picture of 'the working man' which has no basis on reality. The leadership then seems to act on this model without reference to the actual 'workers'. More than that they seem to spend an inordinate amount of time on stifling expression of 'the working man' if it does not fit their narrative.

The majority of people in the UK hang around the center. Taking an extreme position and then getting angry with those people for not following you is not a good look. Blair won 3 elections on the trot because he appealed to the center ground. He was then able to get a mandate to make things happen, and there was a lot of good as well as the bad. The fact is he was in power and able to affect things, but with that come difficult decisions. In hindsight we can see or decide those decisions were wrong, but difficult decisions are part and parcel of being in power. Corbyn has never been in power. He has been talked of as being on the right side of history, but we'll never know, because generally that particular definition of 'being on the right side' meant being on the losing side of an argument.

Patronising supposition....

I'm not falling into any trap.....

14m in Poverty...

Record Evictions...

700 dead Homeless People this year alone..

Workers rights destroyed..

Schools and the NHS on their backside..

Tory lite isn't going to help change that.

I'm not a Corbyn fan... But Centrism isn't going to provide the change the UK needs....Like Biden won't..

Sure Yvette Cooper is more electable but I don't want papering around the cracks..

I would argue that the majority of those who have left the party recently are the economic right wing of the party whilst the cabinet is now full of the economic left of the party (still fairly right wing). This is confused somewhat by the differing stances on Brexit where the roles are reversed.

Kenneth Clarke for instance was a key part in Thatchers cabinet for quite a well it has to be remembered, he's about as Tory as it gets as are Hammond, Rudd and Greening. Rory Stewart was the most left wing MP in the party it has to be said and would have made a fine party leader at some stage, alas that is not to be.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Puts him over 300....He will have a bigger mandate than Johnson plus the DUP at 299.....

Let us leave it I'm not sure I can have a conversation with a guy who disregards People who want more Equality and Social justice as weirdos.

Yeah, that's the part of them that I find weird I would consider myself really rather left wing, but there are factions of the Labour party that I have huge problems with. That you can be blind to that because of some headline ideas is an issue for you to deal with, rather than lecture me on ideas you have made up that I have

All of the above from Trussman does need changing, but we need to get away from the Tories for that to happen. I doubt Johnson wants to get away from the EU conventions on worker rights etc to make them any better for example

The problem Corbyn or anyone else with that philosophy is going to have is the age old one - no one wants to be personally financially worse off as a result of a government's fiscal policy, and won't vote for something that is doing that.

I still don't see enough policy that is going to target the tax avoidance in big business that will raise far more than targeting those on above £80k salary.

Country needs change

Can't force change without being in power

Can't get in power without support from enough people

Polls are starting to put Labour behind Lib Dems, because Labour are less and less attractive to the voters they need. In response all Labour seems to do is drone on about 'yellow tories' and engage in a high risk game of 'blame everyone else for no deal Brexit' while not doing anything themselves.

You suppose I'm a Corbyn fan...I'm not..

Don't see aspiration as a bad thing...Don't want to see middle class families hurt by Tax rises..BUT

I recognise I am luckier than most and think People working their bollox off in Factories and Hospitals.. Or making bad decisions and ending up on the Street deserve better.

It's Priorities..

I don't think Centrism will help them enough...

People are more than welcome to disagree and do...Especially in my own family..

The electoral system means Corbyn or Boris.

I'd rather have Corbyn..

No hard feelings if others want to vote for someone else.

My issues with Corbyn (and some others in there, as well as Momentum) were close to being enough to stop me showing any support, especially as I think they've been an awful opposition against a mess of a party, which worries me. The position on Brexit since the referendum was announced and still is what kills it.

But, I will likely vote for whatever is best to block the Tories. I would prefer an idealistic coalition of pretty much everyone not right wing, but god knows if it could work.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

The electoral system means Corbyn or Boris.

.

If you want change, then you shouldn't accept that this is the case. One vote won't change it, but a wave of support can, (as proven in France) and people shouldn't be afraid of taking a lead.

Vote for the party that best represents what you believe in. It might result in a hung parliament, but at least it stops the big two parties taking you for granted

Dolphin Ziggler wrote:My issues with Corbyn (and some others in there, as well as Momentum) were close to being enough to stop me showing any support, especially as I think they've been an awful opposition against a mess of a party, which worries me. The position on Brexit since the referendum was announced and still is what kills it.

But, I will likely vote for whatever is best to block the Tories. I would prefer an idealistic coalition of pretty much everyone not right wing, but god knows if it could work.

You need balance across the political spectrum which neither major party is giving us any more, the closest we've have since the 60's was Blair and he's tainted by Iraq so anyone similar gets tarred with the same brush. Something similar to Butskilism of the 50's would be ideal at this point in time but alas no one of their ilk around any more.

Good old fashioned Roosevelt economics...

Working class people spend.....Rich People save......

Invest in infrastructure....Create jobs.....Fair pay.....People spend their money in shops and other outlets......Shops and businesses grow....Creates more jobs......More People paying Tax into the kitty...

Great President was FDR......"Cutting in hard times doesn't work".....

All the great Presidents were Democrats.......LBJ.....Cleveland.....Wilson....Truman...

Panelbase..

Con 33
Lab  30
Lib   17

Yougov

Con 33
Lab 22
Lib 20

Conservatives seem to be in the 30-35 ballpark with all the pollsters..

Labour anything between 22-30....

Looking at a 7/8 point lead...Which probably gives Claudius a small majority.

But it is very volatile.

Extinction Rebellion protests have been banned in London.

Isnt this an infringment of civil rights?

Sir Lindsay Hoyle elected as the new speaker of the house

Luke wrote:Sir Lindsay Hoyle elected as the new speaker of the house

Perfect! An English speaker back in the chair.
They can now save some money by sacking the official translator.

SecretFly wrote:

Luke wrote:Sir Lindsay Hoyle elected as the new speaker of the house

Perfect!  An English speaker back in the chair.  
They can now save some money by sacking the official translator.

Luke wrote:Sir Lindsay Hoyle elected as the new speaker of the house

Thank the Lord it wasn't Harriet Harman.

navyblueshorts wrote:

SecretFly wrote:

Luke wrote:Sir Lindsay Hoyle elected as the new speaker of the house

Perfect!  An English speaker back in the chair.  
They can now save some money by sacking the official translator.

You're much too smart for Tumbleweed.

Duty281 wrote:

Luke wrote:Sir Lindsay Hoyle elected as the new speaker of the house

Thank the Lord it wasn't Harriet Harman.

Amen.

Been a great 24 hours for the Tories then....

"Single Mums bring up ignorant...abusive kids"...Boris Johnson..

Likes his stereotypes this piece of spoonfed filth..

Black people...Asians...Struggling ladies who have been dumped by their partners....All minority groups get it because they are no match for the 'Master race"

The Man is pure unadultered filth.....No surprise my Father in law is voting for him..

Scottish Independence voting intention:

No: 56% (+5) Yes: 44% (-5) via @YouGov

Come on, Craig, sort it out.

Duty281 wrote:Scottish Independence voting intention:

No: 56% (+5) Yes: 44% (-5) via @YouGov

Come on, Craig, sort it out.

Depends on how you want to paint it. If you want to go solely on YouGov polls done with a unionist bias as this one I believe was done in conjunction with The Times then it is a 1% increase for independence on the previous YouGov poll at the end of August and beginning of September. For that one independence support stood at 43%. YouGov polls before that stood at 44%, 41%, 41% and 37% five of their polls ago.

Duty281 wrote:Scottish Independence voting intention:

No: 56% (+5) Yes: 44% (-5) via @YouGov

Come on, Craig, sort it out.

I am on it:-

https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/1039926/exclusive-courier-poll-showing-rise-in-support-for-independence-gives-election-day-boost-to-snp/

hung parliament is my prediction with the tories 2-5 seats short

'The government is to add a new clause to the Brexit bill to rule out any extension to the transition period beyond the end of next year.

'The post-Brexit transition period - due to conclude in December 2020 - can currently be extended by mutual agreement for up to two years.

'But an amended Withdrawal Agreement Bill the Commons is set to vote on this week would rule out any extension.'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50818134

Well they've got the numbers now, let them do it. No more blaming a 'remainer parliament'. This is all on them.

Is there anything stopping Johnson from passing another extension amendment when he inevitably fails to get a FTA agreed by December 2020?

Probably not.

We may have reached a point in history where no one cares if you go back on your word.

Long Bailey now the favourite to be labour leader, with Rayner apparently running for deputy.

So there goes the idea that labour learned anything from last week.