Gallagher Premiership - End of Season run-in (Play-Offs)

My current predicted finishing positions:

Exeter 89
Saracens 81
Gloucester 64
Quins 59
=============
Sale 55
Saints 50
-----------------------
Bristol 50
Leicester 50
Bath 49
Wasps 47
Newcastle 41
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Worcester 37

It should be noted that a quirk in the fixtures means some sides, like Leicester, have 4 home fixtures while others , like Bath, have just 2. With Bath facing Bristol at Twickenham they have just one league fixture left at the Rec.

Leicester Tigers (Northampton Saints, Welford Road, Friday 7.45pm)

15 Jordan Olowofela
14 Sam Aspland-Robinson
13 Manu Tuilagi
12 Kyle Eastmond
11 Jonny May
10 George Ford
9 Sam Harrison
1 Ellis Genge
2 Tom Youngs (c)
3 Dan Cole
4 Will Spencer
5 Graham Kitchener
6 Mike Williams
7 Brendon O’Connor
8 Guy Thompson

Replacements
16 Jake Kerr
17 Facundo Gigena
18 Joe Heyes
19 Harry Wells
20 Mike Fitzgerald
21 Ben White
22 Matt Toomua
23 Gareth Owen


Holmes and Youngs injured. Presume that Worth is also out and Evans overlooked having confirmed he's leaving with two opensides options in the starting 15.

Saints will be targeting that back three with some kicks over the top. Not a lot of experience there and not much kicking expertise.

Director of rugby Chris Boyd has made eight changes to his Northampton Saints side ahead of the East Midlands derby on Friday evening against Leicester Tigers.
Wales’ Grand Slam winner Dan Biggar makes his return to the No.10 jersey for the visit to Welford Road (kick-off 7.45pm, live on BT Sport), with Club top-scorer Cobus Reinach also recalled as Saints try to avenge October’s Gallagher Premiership defeat at Twickenham.

It’s a short turnaround for the men in Black, Green and Gold after lifting the Premiership Rugby Cup on Sunday afternoon, but after claiming their first piece of major silverware in five years Saints will be confident of notching up a second win on Tigers soil in as many seasons.

No.8 Teimana Harrison will lead out Northampton in Leicester, with Jamie Gibson and Heinrich Brüssow coming into the back row either side of the skipper.

Alex Moon and Api Ratuniyarawa continue in the engine room after impressing against Saracens last time out, but loosehead Francois Van Wyk and hooker James Fish are selected in the front row alongside Paul Hill.

There are four more changes to the back-line with Biggar and Reinach returning to the half-back berths for the first time since mid-February.

Rory Hutchinson is selected outside Piers Francis in the midfield with Luther Burrell ruled out through concussion, and in the back three Ahsee Tuala switches to fullback to make room for the fleet-footed Tom Collins – with Taqele Naiyaravoro continuing on the other wing.

Meanwhile Boyd has opted for a mixture of youth and experience amongst the replacements; the likes of Alex Mitchell, Andrew Kellaway and George Furbank will be hoping to make an impact off the bench, while Alex Waller and Tom Wood bring the benefit of 33 East Midlands derby appearances between them.

LEICESTER TIGERS vs NORTHAMPTON SAINTS
Gallagher Premiership Rugby, Round 17
Friday 22 March, 2019
Welford Road
Kick-off: 7.45pm

15 Ahsee Tuala
14 Tom Collins
13 Rory Hutchinson
12 Piers Francis
11 Taqele Naiyaravoro
10 Dan Biggar
9 Cobus Reinach

1 Francois Van Wyk
2 James Fish
3 Paul Hill
4 Alex Moon
5 Api Ratuniyarawa
6 Jamie Gibson
7 Heinrich Brüssow
8 Teimana Harrison (c)

Replacements:
16 Reece Marshall
17 Alex Waller
18 Ben Franks
19 James Craig
20 Tom Wood
21 Alex Mitchell
22 Andrew Kellaway
23 George Furbank

Not available for selection:
Andy Symons (knee), Harry Mallinder (knee), Mikey Haywood (knee), Dylan Hartley (knee), Ehren Painter (calf), Courtney Lawes (calf), Paddy Ryan (knee), James Haskell (toe), Fraser Dingwall (ankle), Luther Burrell (concussion) and David Ribbans (ankle).

Nice looking Saints backrow.

Good to see pretty much all the England boys back in the Tigers squad, though hoping they're all fit and ready and not in need of a break!

Well, we have a weekend off after this game.

Tigers 15 all EQ. Should fancy their chances at the set piece as well.

LondonTiger wrote:My current predicted finishing positions:

Exeter 89
Saracens 81
Gloucester 64
Quins 59
=============
Sale 55
Saints 50
-----------------------
Bristol 50
Leicester 50
Bath 49
Wasps 47
Newcastle 41
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Worcester 37

OOOOhhhhhhhh that's a big statement LT!!!

A big challenge for Olowofela against Biggar's high ball game. I'm yet to be convinced that Olowofela is a fullback but I rate him really highly as a young player.

Tigers front row should be able to get a key advantage.

It should be a fascinating game given how tight the table is.

king_carlos wrote:A big challenge for Olowofela against Biggar's high ball game. I'm yet to be convinced that Olowofela is a fullback but I rate him really highly as a young player.

Tigers front row should be able to get a key advantage.

It should be a fascinating game given how tight the table is.

Owolofela looks good under the high ball when he can attack it as it comes down. Ford has picked him out with a couple crossfield kicks this season where Owolofela has gone up and won the ball against the defender. Biggar's shorter more contestable kicks might suit him as he can run in and claim the space. We'll need to stop Biggar chasing his own kicks though because he's excellent at regathering them.

The breakdown and the battle round the fringes will be key to this one. It's where Tigers have been weakest and where Saints will need to be on their game to get that creative but not particularly powerful backline space to work.

Bristol Bears team to face Worcester Warriors at Ashton Gate on Saturday, March 23rd (3pm KO):

15. Luke Daniels; 14. Luke Morahan, 13. Piers O’Conor, 12. Siale Piutau (co-capt), 11. Tom Pincus; 10. Callum Sheedy, 9. Harry Randall; 1. Jake Woolmore, 2. Harry Thacker, 3. Lewis Thiede, 4. Ed Holmes, 5. Chris Vui, 6. Steve Luatua, 7. Jake Heenan, 8. Jordan Crane (co-capt).

Replacements: 16. Sam Parry, 17. Yann Thomas, 18. John Afoa, 19. Joe Batley, 20. Dan Thomas, 21. Andy Uren, 22. Ian Madigan, 23. Mat Protheroe.

Unavailable: Will Capon (shoulder), Shaun Malton (groin), Joe Latta (eye), Sam Jeffries (back), Joe Joyce (ankle), John Hawkins (elbow), James Dun (knee), Will Hurrell (shoulder), Ryan Edwards (shoulder), Alapati Leiua (suspension), Charles Piutau (calf).

Warriors
15 Chris Pennell
14 Bryce Heem
13 Ben Te’o
12 Ryan Mills (C)
11 Josh Adams
10 Jono Lance
9 Francois Hougaard
1 Callum Black
2 Niall Annett
3 Nick Schonert
4 Anton Brelser
5 Michael Fatialofa
6 Ted Hill
7 Sam Lewis
8 Marco Mama

Replacements
16 Joe Taufete’e
17 Ethan Waller
18 Gareth Milasinovich
19 Pierce Philips
20 Carl Kirwan
21 Michael Heaney
22 Duncan Weir
23 Will Butler

LondonTiger wrote:Not available for selection:
Andy Symons (knee), Harry Mallinder (knee), Mikey Haywood (knee), Dylan Hartley (knee), Ehren Painter (calf), Courtney Lawes (calf), Paddy Ryan (knee), James Haskell (toe), Fraser Dingwall (ankle), Luther Burrell (concussion) and David Ribbans (ankle).

That is the two first and second choice hookers, two first choice locks and probably one first choice centre and prop, quite an injury list

Newcastle Falcons team to face Sale Sharks (Saturday, 5.30pm, St James’ Park)

15 Simon Hammersley
14 Vereniki Goneva
13 Chris Harris
12 Josh Matavesi
11 Sinoti Sinoti
10 Toby Flood
9 Sonatane Takulua

1 Sam Lockwood
2 George McGuigan
3 Logovi'i Mulipola
4 Calum Green
5 Andrew Davidson
6 Mark Wilson (captain)
7 John Hardie
8 Nemani Nagusa
Replacements

16 Kyle Cooper
17 Adam Brocklebank
18 David Wilson
19 Evan Olmstead
20 Gary Graham
21 Sam Stuart
22 Brett Connon
23 Johnny Williams

Sale team

15.Luke James;
14.Denny Solomona,
13.James O’Connor,
12.Rohan Janse van Rensburg,
11.Byron McGuigan;
10.Sam James,
9.Faf de Klerk;

1.Ross Harrison,
2.Rob Webber,
3.WillGriff John,
4.Josh Beaumont,
5.James Phillips,
6.Tom Curry,
7.Ben Curry,
8.Jono Ross (capt.).

Replacements 16.Curtis Langdon,17.Tom Bristow, 18.Joe Jones, 19.Bryn Evans, 20.Cameron Neild, 21.Gus Warr, 22.Cameron Redpath, 23.Arron Reed

Falcons starting to look close to full strength.

Interesting back row from Sale, will surely target the breakdown. Wonder how much of that has been forced by injury as Neild, who I think is a hooker now, is covering from the bench.

The back row battle could be a beast. Two quality ones.

Sale look very strong.

Im very disappointed to see Kibirige not even in the 23...let alone starting. I genuinely hope hes not involved in this big occasion due to injury rather than Goneva and Sinoti simply being preferred.....as Zac has been on fire and deserves to be starting.

I agree GF should be a great battle that. what's happening with Kibirige? I know he had those initial off field problems when he first came through the u20s but I was expecting.him to be flying by now. Is it an attitude thing holding him back or just the old guard preferred?

Kibirige has looked really good while the older wingers were out. Just a gut feeling, with no evidence to back it up, but over the years I reckon that Deano has reverted to tried and tested when crunch games come along.

Yeah I think that's it in a nutshell LT

But he's played very well recently and he deserves to be in that starting side. Little things like that which just puzzle you about Dean.

I hope his decision is the right one of course.

You don't win anything with kids eh.

Quite.

The second most baffling thing after just how awful a season Tigers have had ( yeah yeah only 5 points behind 5th place ...) is Newcastle being the prime candidate for relegation.

It really is incredibly competitive this year though between all but the top 2. Cant think of any other season where at this point the bottom placed club has enough points to theoretically still finish above the third placed one.

The relegation battle and HC spots look like they will go down to the last games of the season, and theres still a chance even Tigers could make the playoffs even despite a bit of a gap between 4th 5th. The title race looks like being deiced on finals day between the two outstanding teams, but every game still carries meaning.

Ive felt a bit flat abut the Jeff the last couple of years but compared to the structure Prohowevermanyitisthisweek has this has been far better, and the run in should be full of drama. The top two may have been predictable, but elsewhere theres a lot of surprises including the extent of Tigers and Wasps struggles.

Gooseberry
The biggest issue has been injuries...we don't have a huge quality squad and we have simply been plagued by injuries and also drastic loss of form of many of players like Chris Harris and Gary Graham etc.

it makes a statement that we suddenly get some players back and match fit, and a few find form and all of a sudden we're playing better and winning some games.

Harris has just blasted in to life the last few games...and looks rejuvanted like the player from years ago.

Horrific decision by Barnes not to award a knock on I mean that was textbook.

Saints are waiting for the Tigers defence to bite in and then picking them off. Really nice try.

Needless penalty and yellow card by Mike Williams. Physically a great rugby player but unfortunately has a brain the size of a peanut.

Been all Tigers with Saints looking dangerous on the break. Reinach has been fantastic so far.

Lazy defence round the fringes. Saints slide through the gap and the support attack flood through.

Lack of accuracy is once again killing Tigers at key moments.

I'd get Toomua on at halftime. He was in poor form prior to injury but at 17 points down Tigers need to roll the dice on his experience and class coming good.

Hutchinson is a hell of a talent and he's cutting Tigers apart.

I can’t believe what a good job Boyd has done. Every player is looking for space and to offload, so hard to defend.

And yes Hutchinson is having an incredible season. What a half he’s had, and that’s s just becoming his level. He always picks a great line, and what a step.

king_carlos wrote:Lack off accuracy is once again killing Tigers at key moments.

I'd get Toomua on at halftime. He was in poor form prior to injury but at 17 points down Tigers need to roll the dice on his experience and class coming good.

Hutchinson is a hell of a talent and he's cutting Tigers apart.

Hutchinson has been outstanding. With him and Dingwall Saints have a centre combination for the next decade.

Tigers do need to change it up at half time. Get Wells on for Kitch and anybody for the idiot Williams. Toomua for Eastmond. Our defensive organisation is awful and you can't blame the coaches, they aren't telling the players to be lazy and not fill gaps and miss tackles.

Can we replace Barnes at half time? Missed the world's most obvious knock on and then bottles a yellow card for cynically killing the ball 5m from the line. He's certainly didn't bottle the Williams yellow card in the same way and they were both worthy of a card.

Makes a change for the Tigers fans to be moaning about Barnes in this fixture!

Scottrf wrote:Makes a change for the Tigers fans to be moaning about Barnes in this fixture!

I'm struggling to decide which is worse. His bizarre officiating or our leadership we're a rudderless mess.

So unnecessary to give that penalty away by Genge. He practically belly flopped onto the tackled player.

king_carlos wrote:So unnecessary to give that penalty away by Genge. He practically belly flopped onto the tackled player.

Bettered by Kitch's get up and run straight into their 9 as he tries to get back onside. Completely moronic. Thankfully we're offloading him and Williams in the summer.

How is that penalty a yellow card and Van Wyks in first half not? The main difference should have been that all of Saints players were off their feet and no ruck had been formed so Cole should have been allowed to contest.

Get Kitchener off now. Just a liability.

Tigers just failing to listen to the ref now.

Saints have turned territory into points whereas Tigers have just thrown field position away.

Can the TMO not check either the tackle off the ball on a support player or Biggar being potentially offside for the intercept.

Austin's commentary very telling. No support and no work rate in attack.

Saints have turned their season about with the new coach.

Reinack has to be in for player of the season as well?

yappysnap wrote:Saints have turned their season about with the new coach.

Reinack has to be in for player of the season as well?

Took a while to get his message across but they are building towards something now. Discipline is a bit ropey but the intensity in defence is there, I'm sure he'll look to fine tune that in the summer. Attacking game plan is coming together nicely and with the game management if Reinach and Biggar they have the ability to play in the right areas.

George Ford brings out the dance moves.

I've been impressed by Olowofela and Aspland-Robinson in patches.

The dismal forward display has put them under pressure but for young players they've coped well with the onslaught of wide play by Saints.

We've looked miles better since White came on. He's pushed the tempo and all of a sudden we look like we can string some phases together and go somewhere.

Owolofela has looked solid at 15. SAR looks a little raw, has been caught a couple of times in defence stepping in when he should have held his position.

Nice to see White getting the ear of Barnes. On a day when he's been all over the place we've done nothing to get him onside.

Shambolic. We're in the relegation battle after that.

Saints blew it in the second half. Should have got the full 5.

Yeah great first half but a point blown in the second.

If Falcons and Worcester win tomorrow then the bottom 4 are all in a huge scrap.

Tigers need a DOR coming in who's actually given control of the squad.

Need to bring a DOR in which can take those forwards by the scruff of the neck. They look rudderless. Not sure Blake is doing enough to warrant an extension beyond the end of the season as defence coach.

The forwards are as much down to recruitment as anything I think.

I want to rate Brendan O'Connor very highly because he's good going forward but at times his breakdown work looks like he's unaware of law changes. It's so frustrating.

Getting the defence and lineout right are top of the list. Offer Shaun Edwards top £££ for the DOR job and look to someone like Parling or POC to coach the forwards.

Is everyone still a Murphy apologist and happy to blame everything on Connor and a few players?

Or are we now ready to accept that giving him the full time job off the back of tigers worst run in the professional era was at best hasty regardless of his background with the club.

A DOR is a must, and there has to be a big turnover of players. More than anything though their needs to be a shift in attitude leadership and morale, individually the team is better than the rubbish it's produced most games this season. Things aren't getting better, and Murphy has to carry some heat for that.