US Open 2018

The draw has been made. Djoko is in Fed's quarter and they could meet in the quarters. Murray has avoided a seed in the first round - he plays Duckworth. Delpo could be his third-round opponent. Cilic v Zverev is a possible quarter final in the bottom half of the draw.
Fed could meet Kyrgios in the third round while Stan the Man faces Dimi in the first round for the second Slam running. Rafa could meet Anderson in the quarters which means someone is going to drop big points as the two were the finalists last year.
The Williams sisters could meet in the third round, with the winner possibly playing Halep after that.
Konta has a tough opener - Garcia of France the number 6 seed. Kyle Edmund, currently losing to Johnson in W-Salem, faces Lorenzi in the first round.

I have been looking at the pre-tournament betting odds.  

Djokovic: favorite
Nadal: second favorite  
Federer: third favorite  
Murray: fourth favorite  
A. Zverev: fifth favorite

Then there is a bit of a gap to the next set of favorites:
Wawrinka; Thiem; Kyrgios; Del Potro; Cilic; Raonic

Then another gap to the next set of favorites.

I wouldn't have Murray as fourth favorite - but then it makes me think the betting odds is not just about "likelihood to win" but about "how much will people bet on the player" and "covering the risk of payout if that player wins".  

So in terms of the betting Murray becomes "fourth favorite" simply because a lot more people are likely to bet on him than any other player outside of the "big three", so the bookies have to lower their odds, to reduce their losses if Murray did win (despite the unlikeliness of the situation).

Similarly I think Wawrinka's chances of winning have been over-estimated (but again it is because more people are likely to bet on him outside of the top five).

I think if Murray can get through a couple of rounds it would be a good tournament, given that he's not played a five-set match since Wimbledon last year.
I think Cilic will go further than Zverev. Ditto Delpo.
The women's is wide open, although Halep is the form player. Don't bet against Serena, though.

Not sure where you've got your odds from NNB - the favourites are quite clearly Novak, Rafa, Fed, Zverev, del Potro, Wawrinka and only then Murray at around 50/1.

FWIW I would have del Potro ahead of Zverev but then I haven't properly looked at how the draw could play out.

No way should Murray be fourth in the betting in his current condition/form/fitness/mental conditioning. As sirfredperry said if Murray can get through to the Third Round that would be a very good effort.

Not looked at the draw yet myself, but Federer won't be too happy to be in same quarter as Djokovic, and Kyrgios is a v dangerous opponent in 3rd round. I will be extremely surprised if Federer reaches the semis with that draw!

Agree with the bookies' order of top 3, but feel they are overstating Zverev and underestimating Cilic (if I were a betting man I'd stick a fiver on him) - the Croat has won the tournament before, reached couple of slam finals in last year and other than that odd loss to Pella at Wimbledon, has generally been consistent. After that, I'd probably put Nishikori slightly ahead of Del Potro, then finally Zverev, who to me still seems to lack that extra gear required to go all the way at a slam. I think Dimitrov will get his revenge over Wawrinka - the Bulgarian has a habit of popping up with a good result when you least expect him to.

In the womens, I'm not convinced that Serena is physically or mentally ready to win a slam right now (Aus Open 2019 a different matter) - I'll go for Stephens or Kerber.

Biggest shock so far in the womens is the loss of Halep in straight sets to Kanepi. The big hitting Estonian is always a tough 1st round opponent and seems to thrive on upsetting the seeded players early on in slams. Not seen the womens draw yet so can't see who benefits from this in Halep's section of draw.

Edmund is now 1 set all against Lorenzi - if Kyle was to lose this match would be a real blow - really needs to pull through this to get back to winning ways. Andy Murray back in action too imminently, against Duckworth - surely we can expect Andy to get through this one? It is a kind 1st round draw - could have been much worse for Andy.

Edmund is drawn against Paolo Lorenzi in the first round.   Lorenzi is 36 so is in the twilight of his career.  He is currently ranked 94, but has been as high as 33 in his career.  In 2017 Lorenzi got to round four of the US Open, where he was beaten by Kevin Anderson in four sets, who reached the final.  In 2016 Lorenzi reached round three of the US Open, where he was beaten by Andy Murray in four sets.  

Paolo Lorenzi can very easily beat Kyle Edmund, and as it stands Lorenzi has just evened up the match Edmund - Lorenzi: 6-4 4-6

This is the first time they have met at ATP level (and probably the first time they have met in a competitive match.

Heather Watson currently trailing 1-6 to Makarova.

Meanwhile, plain sailing for Wawrinka, a set and 4-1 up against Dimitrov. Dimitrov will no doubt be plummeting down the rankings shortly - he's had a terrible year, really failed to build on success of winning the ATP Masters title in London last year.

Both Murray (in 1st set) and Edmund (in crucial 3rd set) are in tight sets with their opponents - now approaching business end of each set. Not watching myself, is anyone following the Amazon Prime coverage? Not sure whether to fork out for this or make do with the customary dodgy streaming websites!

First set tie-breaker for Murray against Duckworth.
Edmund was I think 40-0 up against Lorenzi 5-6 in the third set, and Lorenzi has pulled it around to advantage and set point.

Edmund seems to have blown it in the third set, I think he was 40-love up on serve then lost the next five points to lose the third set 5-7. No I am not watching it - only live tracker scores.

But I am going to have to take a break myself.
https://www.usopen.org/en_US/scores/index.html

Not looking good for Edmund - gone 2 sets to 1 down and seems to be struggling physically. Murray also trailing in 1st set tie-break. Could be a bad day for the Brits (Watson also losing).

Have to give credit to Heather Watson she is really fighting in the second set. She went a break down, but has got the break back, it is back on serve in second set 1-6 4-3. I don't think she is going to win this - but she is fighting hard in the second set. She has already played three matches in qualifying I think, so she might get tired at some point. She seemed to have been caught cold in the first set by Makarova, who I guess started off too strongly for Heather.

Heather now up 5-3 and a break in the second set after trailing 3-1 in the second set.
Yes Murray lost the first set 5-7. I suppose Duckworth must be confident that Murray might not be match fit.

Duckworth takes 1st set against Murray on the tie-break! Still time for Murray to turn this around though you'd think he couldn't come back from 2 sets down given his recent time out from the game.

James Duckworth is 26, has reached a highest ranking of 82, currently ranked 448, the past two years have been plagued with injury - he seems to be back on the mend. I assume he received a wildcard into the qualifiers rather than directly into the main draw.

Heather has just taken the second set 6-3, Makarova lost five games in a row, but the last game she put a lot of effort into it, and threatened to take the break back.

It seems both got into the  main draw through the protected ranking system.

The Herald Sun wrote:The Aussie underdog is continuing his own comeback from no less than five operations in 12 months to repair debilitating foot, shoulder and elbow injuries.

"We both have a bit of an understanding of what it’s like to be out of the game for an extended period and we’re trying to get back and getting used to playing matches day in, day out," Duckworth said.

“It can be a tough road with injuries and when you return. It’s on your mind because you don’t know how your body is going to react.

“There were times I feared I wouldn’t play again.

“I had three surgeries on my foot and that was the biggest thing because I couldn’t run, jump or hop — which makes it tough. ”

But feeling the best he has in two years, Duckworth hopes to go the distance in a bid to wear out the 2012 champion, who will be playing only his eighth match since returning to tennis

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/tennis/aussie-battler-james-duckworth-says-theres-never-been-a-better-chance-to-topple-andy-murray/news-story/a0e94cf1bcce50532e6eb5556e2a5a64

Andy Murray through in four sets. A win is a win and this is jus t another small step in his recovery process and hopefully boost his confidence and belief. Next up is a tough match against Fernando Verdasco.

Apparently he looked fine movement wise, didn't serve very well and doesn't look like he has the power that he used to, but still early days.
Great he got through a 4setter.

2016 champion Stan Wawrinka eased past Grigor Dimitrov in straight sets. Stan finding his mojo again

LuvSports! wrote:Apparently he looked fine movement wise, didn't serve very well and doesn't look like he has the power that he used to, but still early days.
Great he got through a 4setter.

I think loss of muscle tone due to lack of competitive tennis for so long could account for lack of power in shots so hopefully that will return.

Jim Courier (during commentary) made a point about how US TV noticed his change in walking gait during Washington and said it could be him trying to protect his hip. Also he suggested Andy should look to re-invent himself somewhat a la Del Potro.

A decent win for Cameron Norrie beating Jordan Thompson in four sets. A disappointing loss for Kyle Edmund in 4 sets though.

I wouldn't say Kyle Edmund's loss in itself to Lorenzi was disappointing, given Lorenzi's very strong show in this tournament in 2016 (lost to Murray in four sets in R3, Murray reached the QF) and 2017 (lost to Anderson in four sets in R4, Anderson reached the Final). However what was disappointing was that he got his fluid intake / electrolyte balance wrong - because all reports suggests he cramped up in the third set, and went from I think 40-0 on serve at 5-6 to losing the fourth and fifth set 5-7 and 1-6. Because of the cramping he never gave himself a chance, which was fairly evenly contested up to the point of his cramping (hot & humid conditions).

CaledonianCraig wrote:

LuvSports! wrote:Apparently he looked fine movement wise, didn't serve very well and doesn't look like he has the power that he used to, but still early days.
Great he got through a 4setter.

I think loss of muscle tone due to lack of competitive tennis for so long could account for lack of power in shots so hopefully that will return.

Jim Courier (during commentary) made a point about how US TV noticed his change in walking gait during Washington and said it could be him trying to protect his hip. Also he suggested Andy should look to re-invent himself somewhat a la Del Potro.

How so?
I don't think he has a weapon like Delpo has, other than his movement.

Well Kyle lost to a player ranked well below him. We have heard the talk that Kyle is the man to replace Andy well that does not hold up with results like this. He is ranked well inside the top twenty now so when you lose in the First Round against a much lower ranked player it can only be described as disappointing.

Sure his fitness let him down but by the time it did he was already trailing in the match. Hopefully, he can come back stronger for this loss both mentally and physically and end the season on a high.

LuvSports! wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:

LuvSports! wrote:Apparently he looked fine movement wise, didn't serve very well and doesn't look like he has the power that he used to, but still early days.
Great he got through a 4setter.

I think loss of muscle tone due to lack of competitive tennis for so long could account for lack of power in shots so hopefully that will return.

Jim Courier (during commentary) made a point about how US TV noticed his change in walking gait during Washington and said it could be him trying to protect his hip. Also he suggested Andy should look to re-invent himself somewhat a la Del Potro.

How so?
I don't think he has a weapon like Delpo has, other than his movement.

As I recall it Courier felt he should look to be more aggressive and shorten the rallies and lessen the strain on his hip. Get closer to the baseline in rallies and look to get to the net more I think were the points he made. Del Potro's wrist injury, of course, has taken away weapons but he has now adapted to play shots off the backhand with slice whereas he used to hit with power but can no longer do that.

MrInvisible wrote:Both Murray (in 1st set) and Edmund (in crucial 3rd set) are in tight sets with their opponents - now approaching business end of each set.  Not watching myself, is anyone following the Amazon Prime coverage?  Not sure whether to fork out for this or make do with the customary dodgy streaming websites!

Just to say, you can sign up for Amazon Prime free for a month.

CaledonianCraig wrote:Well Kyle lost to a player ranked well below him. We have heard the talk that Kyle is the man to replace Andy well that does not hold up with results like this. He is ranked well inside the top twenty now so when you lose in the First Round against a much lower ranked player it can only be described as disappointing.

Sure his fitness let him down but by the time it did he was already trailing in the match. Hopefully, he can come back stronger for this loss both mentally and physically and end the season on a high.

I think it is clear that on a global level there isn't anyone to "replace" Andy Murray, let alone the top three. If Federer, Nadal and Djokovic represent all time greats of the modern game (with probably Borg and Sampras in the mix) then Murray is not too far behind them and certainly would have won maybe another seven slams at least in their absence. Of course, always having them in front of him caused him to push hard continuously.

With Kyle Edmund, I myself may have exaggerated his potential but it was clear he was the best of the rest for Britain (in terms of men's tennis) with the hope he might challenge for slams once this era (which is in its twilight) of all time greats have passed. At least with his loss to Lorenzi there is a physical reason for it. He was level in the game when the cramp started to kick in (according to reports cramp started to set in in the third set, when Edmund was level).

Luckily, I am an Amazon Prime member so am able to watch the US Open live. It is far from ideal that this is the only live coverage though and is taking live coverage away from the masses. Coverage wise it is of a high enough quality to be fair with same commentators as you would get on Sky and the same pundits.

Frustratingly, I can’t seem to watch “live content” on the app on my TV, so I can only watch Amazon Prime on my iPad, which isn’t ideal. I presume the only way I can watch on my TV is to get a fire stick?

Born Slippy wrote:Frustratingly, I can’t seem to watch “live content” on the app on my TV, so I can only watch Amazon Prime on my iPad, which isn’t ideal. I presume the only way I can watch on my TV is to get a fire stick?

I can't say for sure as I watched it from a hotel room on my mobile where I have the Amazon Prime app installed. I have a roku stick and I can't seem to find the live tennis on the Amazon Prime app there oddly enough. It comes up straight away on my mobile app though.

Cheers Craig. Yeah, I can watch on mobile or iPad but not on tv which is somewhat irritating at home!

Andy Murray is giving nothing away in his postmatch interview - as I suppose he can't, otherwise that would motivate his future opponents.  What he said after the first round match and as reported by the BBC is that he has to mentally prepare himself before the match for what he might feel after the match (I suppose this is some sort of acceptance mentality, a pain - reward calculus):

BBC reporting on Andy Murray wrote:  ... I got through it - that's good news.  And the other positive thing is I felt better than I expected to at the end of the match.

When I'm going into the match I'm trying to prepare myself mentally that I'm not going to feel great physically after the match, or that my hip will feel painful, so I think about how I'm going to handle that.

Hopefully not feeling too bad at the end of the match continues and that my body adapts to the load I'm putting it through.

This is the first time I have played four sets in 14 months, so I just have to wait and see how I pull up.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/45326530

Djokovic struggling in the hot conditions

There have been quite a few retirements. But there have also been quite a few "effective retirements" - players that have cramped up but seen out their matches. One example of an effective retirement was Kyle Edmund, where he cramped up in the third set of his match, and never recovered. Maybe Djokovic will also succumb, but one would think he is and his team are too professional for this to happen? Maybe the shot clock is having an effect - where everyone has to ensure they don't take more than 20 seconds between points.

Johanna Konta is beaten 2-6 2-6 in the first round to sixth seed Garcia.

Konta's record in the slams this year:
AO 2018: 2R
FO 2018: 1R
W 2018: 2R
USO 2018: 1R

She lost in the first round of USO 2017, so won't drop points. Her slam record this year suggests she is a top 100 player (not a top 50 player). She is currently ranked at 46.

Djokovic takes the third set to lead 6-3 3-6 6-4 against Fucsovics. Djokovic was a break down in the third set.

Losing to a quality player like Garcia (6th seed) isn't a disgrace on the face of it but the one-sided scoreline - 6-2 6-2, shows how far Konta has fallen from when she reached semi-finals in couple of slams. Her game is bit one-dimensional - needs to add bit of variety as she looks short of options when her all-out power doesn't work - needs to improve defensive skills.

Kyle Edmund said he wasn't match fit.  He suffered tonsillitis and a viral infection that knocked him sideways.  He recovered but hadn't built up to a match fitness he was comfortable with.  This must have contributed to his succumbing to the heat.  Apparently his cramping was noticeable in the third set, but he had managed to keep the scores level until about 40-0 on his serve and 5-6.  Then he fell off a cliff performance wise.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/45324252

Edmund's will drop 90 points but apparently he has 45 points that can counter that - so he should lose a net 45 points.  Whether 90 or 45 points he is expected to remain in the top 20.

Cameron Norrie has repeated last years performance by getting to the second round.

Murray second on court today with the forecast suggesting 36C in New York. Seems that Murray often seems to get the day matches at the Slams while Rafa and Rog play at night. Be nice to see Andy get thru at least one more round today.
Hardly any surprise results from the Tues play.

Multiple players wilting in the heat.

Flipping heck - Patty Schnyder is still on the tour!

sirfredperry wrote:Murray second on court today with the forecast suggesting 36C in New York. Seems that Murray often seems to get the day matches at the Slams while Rafa and Rog play at night. Be nice to see Andy get thru at least one more round today.
  Hardly any surprise results from the Tues play.

Lowers his chances even further I would think. His fitness looks solid but I can’t imagine he is in shape for a brutal match in the heat. He needs to get off to a flyer, which is plausible as Nando can often be a slow starter, and win in three. I can’t see that happening given that he has been very up and down within matches. Suspect it will be Verdasco in 4.

MrInvisible wrote:Losing to a quality player like Garcia (6th seed) isn't a disgrace on the face of it but the one-sided scoreline - 6-2 6-2, shows how far Konta has fallen from when she reached semi-finals in couple of slams.  Her game is bit one-dimensional - needs to add bit of variety as she looks short of options when her all-out power doesn't work - needs to improve defensive skills.

Yeah, Konta won both matches they played last year and led the h2h overall. Whilst Garcia has improved, the fact it was a total demolition just emphasises how far Konta has fallen. Seems to me that her game is entirely confidence based. If she is on, she’s a top 5 player and can beat anyone with her serve and groundstroke power. However, if she’s out of sorts, she becomes an unforced error machine and is easily beaten by anyone half-decent. Unfortunately, since last summer, we’ve seen the latter version.

I live in hope but Verdasco is a solid enough player playing at a decent level and so would suspect he will win. Andy's best chance will be to win in straight sets. I would hope he plays aggressively and goes for his shots. Main thing is he comes through the match with the hip feeling fine.

Am I right in thinking that Nadal excepted, Murray has a pretty decent record against left-handers? In terms of match-up then, Murray may be adept at dealing with Verdasco's big forehands. That said, Verdasco is still a v tough opponent, and is better defensively (on the backhand side) than you may think.

I think this match may come down to the serving - post comeback I don't see Murray being able to grind out matches against top players when his serve is below say 60% - if Murray can keep up his serve above 60% I think he'll be OK. I do though put this match in the balance at 50:50.

Yeah, he’s 13-1 specifically against Verdasco and the one loss was against peak Nando at Oz 09. However, Murray is obviously nowhere near his usual level and Nando looks in reasonable form. I don’t think a serve percentage over 60% is overly relevant here - Nando isn’t likely to really destroy Andy’s second serve. It’s more a case of whether Andy can maintain a good length on his ground strokes and avoid getting into a match where he is just chasing giant forehands. About 65-35 in Verdasco’s favour I would say.

Stan the Man being made to work hard by Ugo Humbert (no, I haven’t either ....), a 20 year-old qualifier from France playing his very first Slam.

Comedy first set from Andy. His injury absence seems to have made his ability to throw sets away even more pronounced. When he went 4-2 up that should have been set over.