Spring 2018 claycourt season

First topic message reminder :

There's always something reassuring about the arrival of the claycourt season - means (for those of us in northern hemisphere) longer days and warmer weather on the way and we can start to predict what sort of crazy new records Nadal will get this year whilst looking for any chinks in his armour and speculating on which players can challenge him on the surface.

Well, before the claycourt season proper started, Nadal laid down an impressive marker by beating Zverev comfortably in the Spain vs Germany Davis Cup tie on home soil. Meanwhile, Kyle Edmund, who had a pretty forgettable Indian Wells and Miami, is looking good so far on the clay in Marrakesh, where he is seeded no. 2. Norrie looked good on the clay earlier this year in Davis Cup, so will be interesting if he can show some further form on the surface.

I will be watching Thiem with interest when he returns as he is arguably one of the few potential challengers to Nadal on clay. Other than Thiem, Nadal and Zverev I am struggling to see who else will be going far in the claycourt masters and Roland Garros this year - maybe Coric? From what I've seen of the Croat he looks to have a good game for clay although I don't know what his results have been on the surface so far. Djokovic still looks in trouble, I fear Wawrinka is on his way out shortly and neither Federer nor Murray will be around in the claycourt season.

Zverev seems to be growing in stature.  He takes the second set off Nadal 6-1. Strange goings on in Rome? Nadal wins first set 6-1 then Zverev wins the second set 6-1.

Zverev broke Nadal in the first game of the first set but then lost the set 6-1.  In the second set he broke Nadal twice.  In the third set he breaks Nadal to lead 1-0.

Zverev's resurgence is being aided by the heavy cloud cover and steady drizzle that came about after the first set

Rain interrupts play:
Nadal - Zverev: 6-1 1-6 1-3 Nadal on serve 15:0

Nathaniel Jacobs wrote:Zverev's resurgence is being aided by the heavy cloud cover and steady drizzle that came about after the first set

I seem to recall Djokovic looked like he was going to beat Nadal perhaps in the RG final when it started drizzling and the ball became like a bullet. Then I think they called time, came back later when it was dry and sunny and Nadal stonked Djokovic.

No name Bertie wrote:

Nathaniel Jacobs wrote:Zverev's resurgence is being aided by the heavy cloud cover and steady drizzle that came about after the first set

I seem to recall Djokovic looked like he was going to beat Nadal perhaps in the RG final when it started drizzling and the ball became like a bullet.  Then I think they called time, came back later when it was dry and sunny and Nadal stonked Djokovic.

2012 IIRC, Djokovic was two sets down and then won 8 straight games in the rain

Rafael Nadal wins in the Eternal City for the first time in 5 years another incredible trophy in his cabinet. 8 times the king in Rome and regains the world number one position. Pretty decent is this boy Nadal...

Almost perfect clay season so far for Rafa, the QF defeat at Madrid making sure he kept up with the match practice but didn't over exert, and then winning the other tournaments.

Separate thread for RG or keep the same one?

Rafa vs the field - who would be favourite?

Henman Bill wrote:Separate thread for RG or keep the same one?

Rafa vs the field - who would be favourite?

Unless someone creates a separate thread - I am happy with this running thread.  And maybe in future there should be running threads for the 2018 Grass Court Season and the 2018 Hard Court Season.  We have to cut our coats according to our cloth - or at least that's what some say.

Good to see, from a GB viewpoint, Heather Watson finally winning a match - a three-set victory over Bondarenko today following a final-set tiebreak. I think that's her first win for some time.
I see Raonic has had to pull out of RG where Edmund, now 17th ranked, should now avoid the top players for at least three rounds.

Bookies odds from odds checker (reduced % slightly to account for profit margin)

Rafa 60%
Zverev 10%
Thiem 8%
Djokovic 7%
Others 15%

From the others, Del Potro and Stan have capability but haven't been watching their form and fitness in the clay season.

Henman Bill wrote:Bookies odds from odds checker (reduced % slightly to account for profit margin)

Rafa 60%
Zverev 10%
Thiem 8%
Djokovic 7%
Others 15%

From the others, Del Potro and Stan have capability but haven't been watching their form and fitness in the clay season.

SFP's odds:

Rafa 100%
Others 0%.

Short of Rafa having a serious injury, does anyone REALLY believe that anyone can beat him over five sets at the RG this year?

BBC reporting that Serena Williams will not be seeded at RG. This is a particularly boneheaded decision. She could now meet the top seed (Halep) in the opening round.

sirfredperry wrote:BBC reporting that Serena Williams will not be seeded at RG. This is a particularly boneheaded decision. She could now meet the top seed (Halep) in the opening round.

Is it a decision? It might not be anything they had control over, under the rules. They are following the rankings. I think that all GS's have the option of applying a mathematical formula to account for surface-based results (I could be wrong, but it's what Wimby do, but the others choose not to). Perhaps even applying the formula would not have pushed Serena into the top 32, so they just left it as is.

Interestingly the BBC todays states re: Serena (and returning mums in general)
"Any WTA rule change would not come into force before 2019, but the one tournament that can exercise its own discretion is Wimbledon.
When the seeding committee meets on 26 June, it will be able to diverge from the WTA rankings if the committee is of the opinion that a "change is necessary to produce a balanced draw"."

This implies a) Wimbledon does not have to use a mathematical formula - at least for the WTA side and b) The French Open has to stick to the seeding.

However, it's not entirely clear (or necessarily accurate).

I read an article at the  beginning of the which said more or less the same.

However on the ATP side were Murray to be fit enough to play at Wimbledon he could not be given a seeding as the rules will not allow it. Top 32 ranked entrants will all be seeded. Although not necessarily in that order if the mathematical formula is used. I think that is quite fair.

Calder106 wrote:I read an article at the  beginning of the which said more or less the same.

However on the ATP side were Murray to be fit enough to play at Wimbledon he could not be given a seeding as the rules will not allow it. Top 32 ranked entrants will all be seeded. Although not necessarily in that order if the mathematical formula is used.  I think that is quite fair.

First things first. Andy, should he return and hopefully he will, will not be a contender for a fair few months should he come through the comeback phase untroubled by the hip. First he has to prove his hip has healed and not troubling him. Second he'll need to shake off a lot of rust. Third he'll need to get match fit and hopefully he can do all of these whilst winning a few matches and build confidence. After that it may be time for him to get back into contention for winning small and then the bigger titles. A long, winding road no doubt with plenty of inclines lie ahead.

Calder106 wrote:I read an article at the  beginning of the which said more or less the same.

However on the ATP side were Murray to be fit enough to play at Wimbledon he could not be given a seeding as the rules will not allow it. Top 32 ranked entrants will all be seeded. Although not necessarily in that order if the mathematical formula is used.  I think that is quite fair.

Thanks, that makes sense. It does appear as though the rules are different for the mens and womens seedings at Wimby.