Grass court season

Stuttgart kicked off today, bloke by the name of Roger Federer(rocking a new hair do) is playing.

Stan Wawrinka has added Paul Annacone to his coaching group, as he continues to search for improvements on grass. Will his morale be badly affected by the drubbing he received in Paris?

Will Andy Murray defend his Wimbledon championship?

Will the real Djokovic ever return?

Will Nadal do anything on grass?

Will a youngster steal the limelight?

This week Stuttgart and Hertogenbosch.

Next week Queens and Halle.

Eastbourne and Turkey (new tournament) 26th June - July 1st.

Wimbledon is July 3rd-July 16th. That's a week or two later than some years in the past. Play will need to stop for bad light about 5-10 minutes earlier than for past Wimbledons. Not a huge deal.

Stuttgart
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_MercedesCup
Top Seeds: Federer, Dimitrov, Berdych
Tommy Haas has a wilcard and will play Federer if he wins his first match

Hertogenbosch
http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/scores/current/s-hertogenbosch/440/top-seeds
Top Seeds: Cilic, Zverev, Karlovic

Week of June 19th-25th

Queens
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Aegon_Championships
Top Seeds: Murray, Nadal, Stan, Raonic, Cilic, Tsonga, Dimitrov, Berdych
Wildcards for Evans and Edmund

Halle
https://www.gerryweber-open.de/en/tournament/players/singles/
Top Seeds: Federer, Thiem, Nishikori, Zverev, Monfils
Also notable: Gasquet, Kohlschreiber, Tommy Haas.

So it looks like Federer will play 2 events before Wimbledon, Nadal and Murray 1, and Djokovic and Nadal zero - as usual. I do wonder whether that could change this year after this early exit at the French Open as well as reduced matches throughout the clay season vs normal.

Dan Evans injured his calf in a challenger over the weekend. I read on Twitter that he couldn't walk off the court, so I am guessing he is a doubt for Queens and possibly even Wimbledon.

Week of June 25th-July 1st

Eastbourne
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Aegon_International_Eastbourne
Seeds: Djokovic, Monfils, Isner, Johnson, Muller, Querrey, Mischa Zverev, Gasquet.

Antalya, Turkey
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Antalya_Open
Seeds: Thiem, Verdasco, Lorenzi, Khachanov, Troicki, Kilizan, Coric, Basilashvili.

Not sure if it would be wise for Djoko to skip the grass-court season (or should that be seadon - please correct your headline Nathaniel).
   The Serb has few points to defend and we saw with Murray at the French how a couple of wins can galvanise a season.
   I expect Fed to do well at Stuttgart and, I assume, Halle which should put him in a good position for Wimbledon.

Haas interview
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=85AQdcouXdk
1.5 minute

His career is winding down.

He won in the doubles yesterday and is currently playing in the singles against Herbert, and won the first set.

39 year old Tommy Haas wins 7-5 in hte third.

Looking at his record this year (calendar 2017), it's pretty consistent.

He is:

1-8 against top 60 players (including 0-4 against top 30 players)
4-0 against players ranked over 60 (including today's result)
Overall 5-8

He is playing like he ought to be ranked around 60, but his ranking is at 303, as he didn't play last year, so he is relying on wild cards.

So, Federer vs Haas next.

nadal wont enter Queens

no good news for his wimbledon chances

Rafa not playing Queens: He hardly extended himself at RG so he probably fancies a quick holiday. Still think he'll do well at Wimbledon. He's certainly due a decent SW19 year.
   Fed v Haas today should be good.

seeing that he is more in risk in the first week, I think it would have been better for him to play some more on grass prior to that first week in wimbly

and if he wasnt streched to his limits in RG more reason to not make a break

I really fear its worse than a simple chosen vacation

naxroy wrote:seeing that he is more in risk in the first week, I think it would have been better for him to play some more on grass prior to that first week in wimbly

and if he wasnt streched to his limits in RG more reason to not make a break

I really fear its worse than a simple chosen vacation

I think he played a lot during the clay season - won pretty much everything too. Physically and mentally that is quite some effort, even if RG was easier than it could have been.

Might be a smart move to take all the rest he can get too. I'd think he has more chance of winning USO than Wimbledon so may be saving himself for hardcourts is a better move.

Rafa's post 2011grass court form is reminiscent to the pre-2015 clay court form of Murray

Hence, I've know idea, why anyone thinks he will win - unless it's cold but dry for two weeks

His form at RG, particularly the final was absolutely amazing and I have a lot of time for him, but he ain't going to be getting high bouncing slow balls at Wimby and it is those type of balls that enabled the brilliant cross court forehands and backhands he was hitting

Federer lost to Tommy Haas...

Yep, good win for the 39 year old against the youngster.

If Rafa can arrange a few private practice matches against top 30 players on grass that should help compensate for missing Queens, which sounds like a smart decision to me.

Surprised Federer lost. Obviously the lack of match practice was not working in his favour but I thought the match would be close but he'd still have too much. I think that could be the first time Tommy Haas has won two matches in a row this season.

Three time Wimbledon champion Novak Djokovic looking like he's taking a wildcard for Eastbourne

Henman Bill wrote:If Rafa can arrange a few private practice matches against top 30 players on grass that should help compensate for missing Queens, which sounds like a smart decision to me.

Not too sure that Rafa is too confident about the grass court season as he says in this report

https://rafaelnadalfans.com/

Rafa almost always downplays his chances so that doesn't mean a lot.

mmmm not so sure on this occasion

Had a funny feeling when Haas edged out Fed in 3 sets the other day that it was a brief 'moment-in-the-sun' for him ..... impressively rolling back the years to take advantage of a rusty Fed. Stopped in his tracks this afternoon though, with a loss in straights to Mischa Zverev.

As to Rafa's prospects for Wimbledon ..... methinks the signs really are very good.

Top seeds Cilic, Zverev, Karlovic, Muller all get to the semis at Hertogenbosch.

lags72 wrote:Had a funny feeling when Haas edged out Fed in 3 sets the other day that it was a brief 'moment-in-the-sun' for him ..... impressively rolling back the years to take advantage of a rusty Fed. Stopped in his tracks this afternoon though, with a loss in straights to Mischa Zverev.

As to Rafa's prospects for Wimbledon ..... methinks the signs really are very good.

So it seems you have more faith in his knees than he does. so why is he not playing Queens which he loves ?

I obviously don't have a hot line to him H-n ..... but am just thinking he perhaps feels an extended break after the long clay swing, involving many matches (even if many were fairly swift affairs), will see him properly reinvigorated for a serious tilt at Wimbledon.

Stuttgart QF

Lopez bt Berdych
Pouille bt Kohlschreiber
Mischa Zverev bt Haas
Paire bt Janowicz

lags72 wrote:I obviously don't have a hot line to him H-n ..... but am just thinking he perhaps feels an extended break after the long clay swing, involving many matches (even if many were fairly swift affairs), will see him properly reinvigorated for a serious tilt at Wimbledon.

I have to disagree. Rafa will go into Wimbledon (a surface he has struggled on for five years) playing his first grass court match for two years. Hardly, grounds to say he'll have a serious tilt at Wimbledon.

Rafa has that curious Wimbledon record of 5 finals in a row then 4 early round defeats in a row.

Does he take a while to get into grass meaning he usually either loses early while still not adjusted, or gets to the final? Consistent with his record, but maybe I'm just trying to fit a story to the facts after the fact.

Or have his knees just not been the same since 2011? This could be a factor.

lags72 wrote:I obviously don't have a hot line to him H-n ..... but am just thinking he perhaps feels an extended break after the long clay swing, involving many matches (even if many were fairly swift affairs), will see him properly reinvigorated for a serious tilt at Wimbledon.

Then lags you have not read the article I posted he is concerned that whilst he loves to play grass it affects his knees .. why risk it

Quite interesting to compare Rafa's Wimbledon results when he did not play (DNP) at Queens (italics) with the years he did (bold).

The evidence suggests Rafa does better at Wimbledon in the years when he plays Queens. He has never even once skipped Queens and even reached the QF at Wimbledon.

(I believe most of the years he DNP Queens was because he played no grass warm up tournament. If anyone knows of any other grass tournaments he played between FO and Wimbledon other than Queens let me know and I can update.)

2005 Queens DNP Wimbledon R2
2006 Queens QF Wimbledon F
2007 Queens QF Wimbledon F
2008 Queens W Wimbledon W
2009 Queens DNP Wimbledon DNP
2010 Queens QF Wimbledon W
2011 Queens QF Wimbledon F
2012 Queens DNP Wimbledon R2
2013 Queens DNP Wimbledon R1
2014 Queens DNP Wimbledon R4
2015 Queens R1 Wimbledon R2
2016 Queens DNP Wimbledon DNP

I think it's reasonable at the moment to say that Rafa is slightly behind in the favourites list, perhaps 4th or 5th. With a good draw and no-one hitting a hot streak against him, he does have a chance of winning, but you fancy he would also need to avoid the other big 4 finding their mojo.

Rafa played at Halle instead of Queens in 2012 (reached QF, lost to Kohlschreiber, and 2014 lost to Brown in first match). In 2013 he didn't play any warm up event before Wimbledon. In 2015 he played and won at Stuggart(beatingvTroicki) before playing (and lost) in first match at Queens to Diogo.

I don't think it's a matter of him playing at Queens or not, it's a matter of how his knees hold up. He's resting now and then will start practicing on grass next week in Mallorca (at the WTA Mallorca Open venue), unlike in the past where he couldn't practice back home as they didn't have a grass court back then. After that, he may play an exho, at Boodles perhaps; so he's giving himself time to adapt to the grass surface. I think it's a good arrangement this way, than to rush to Queens without proper rest and training, and then lose in R1 or R2.

Well you and I read his FB somewhat differently it seems

Is the grass court game more demanding on the knees? Uneven bounce and low bounce skidding balls? Also a bit of moisture and the surface can become slippery. Also when there is a variable wear on the court - especially around the baseline - you get areas of grass and areas of dirt. Everything points to more use of the knees in body adjustment.

Well precisely and that is what he basically refers to in the article I posted..It is more demanding and in view of the very successful clay court season he has had I'm not sure I blame him for being overly cautious if that's the case.

Rafa mentioned in the said article, that if he's healthy and has the right preparation and feeling healthy during Wimbledon, he will probably have his chances of playing well there. So, the important thing is he is healthy (that includes his knees in good conditions of course). He's cautious not to stress his knees any further after the clay season his has, so I think it's wise if him not to rush to play at Queens, but to let himself rest and then starts training on grass.

With that much I agree.. it would be really unwise  to risk damaging his knees again.. but whatever  he does not seem confident that he will have a repeat performance of his clay successes. It would be sad to see him go out early again at Wimbledon and hardly a confidence boost for him. So it remains to be seen if he feels he is genuinely healthy enough and  what he considers the risk factor to be

Jo Konta could well win Nottingham. She's through to the semis and will meet an unseeded player today. 
   Edgbaston women's tournament, which - shamefully - gave Sharapova a WC, is now not featuring Sharapova nor a host of others, all missing for various reasons.
   Dan Evans and delpo are out of Queen's, with the former in danger of missing Wimbledon.

Later: Konta through to final after straight-sets win. F Lopez makes the Stuttgart final.

Murray will take on Bedene in the first round of Queen's. Tough draw after that, with Andy meeting, possibly, Querrey, J-W T and Cilic.
   Fed's got a kinder draw at Halle and should get some wins after exiting to Haas this week.

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Rafa played at Halle instead of Queens in 2012 (reached QF, lost to Kohlschreiber, and 2014 lost to Brown in first match).  In 2013 he didn't play any warm up event before Wimbledon. In 2015 he played and won at Stuggart(beatingvTroicki) before playing (and lost) in first match at Queens to Diogo.

Thanks blb, so there is a strong correlation between playing Queens and doing well at Wimbledon, but, adding the other tournaments, little correlation between whether he does better having played any warm up tournament. That possibly points to the Queens correlation being coincidental. Unless there is something specific about Queens that helps him prepare better, which is possible, but somewhat fanciful.

Henman Bill wrote:The evidence suggests Rafa does better at Wimbledon in the years when he plays Queens. ...
2005 Queens DNP Wimbledon R2
2006 Queens QF Wimbledon F
2007 Queens QF Wimbledon F
2008 Queens W Wimbledon W
2009 Queens DNP Wimbledon DNP
2010 Queens QF Wimbledon W
2011 Queens QF Wimbledon F
2012 Queens DNP Wimbledon R2
2013 Queens DNP Wimbledon R1
2014 Queens DNP Wimbledon R4
2015 Queens R1 Wimbledon R2
2016 Queens DNP Wimbledon DNP

Correlation doesn't imply causation.  An alternate view is simply that after 2011 the cumulative effect of knee damage and surgery limited his capabilities on grass. In 2005 he was still a callow youth on non-clay surface.  2004: AO through to USO: 3R A A 2R.  2005 AO through to USO: 4R W 2R 3R. This theorem also better explains the 2015 result when he did play at Queens.

I agree that correlation doesn't imply causation (in fact I think this should be taught in schools as it is such a common mistake in life), there could be another reason for the connection such as choosing not to play Queens in years when he was physically not in good condition or already lacking in confidence, in which case both the Queens results/DNPs and the Wimbledon results could be explained by such underlying reasons equally, rather than one causing the other.

Or alternatively it may all be coincidence, as your other theory works equally well.

Tight matches at Stuttgart, any one of the four semi finalists could have won the title. Tight matches with 7-5 7-6 sets and deciding sets.

Lopez beat Mischa Zverev
Pouille beat Benoit Paire

Pouille beat Lopez

Similar story at Hertogenbosch with closely matched semi finalists.

Karlovic bt Cilic
Muller bt Zverev

Muller bt Karlovic 7-6 7-6 - no break points in the match and Muller only lost 7 points on serve in the whole match!

Henman Bill wrote:Similar story at Hertogenbosch with closely matched semi finalists.

Karlovic bt Cilic
Muller bt Zverev

Muller bt Karlovic 7-6 7-6 - no break points in the match and Muller only lost 7 points on serve in the whole match!

Should have been down the bookies for that scoreline

Murray and Federer in action today. Murray has a tough draw at Queen's. Pity from a GB point of view that Edmund went out yesterday.

it will be very interesting to see how Nadal does at Wimbledon this year. He won the French open with such ease and will be so much better rested this time around. Its hard to know why he has struggled so much at Wimbledon since 2012 given how good his record was up until that point.

I have a feeling we will see a better and more confident Nadal this time around (if he can get through the early round unscathed). You would have to think if he could somehow get to round 4 or QF his confidence will rise and he will become a real threat.

For me Federer is the favourite with Murray a close 2nd. Nadal is the only other player I can see threatening. There has been talk of Novak entering Eastbourne but I wonder is he better off sitting Wimbledon out to recharge his batteries. There is no chance he is going to win Wimbledon this year and I reckon he knows that too. I think Federer made the right decision to skip the French and I think Novak might be wise to do likewise at Wimbledon. Pains me to say that as a fan but taking another beating at Wimbledon is not going to do him and his confidence any good

Lovely gesture by Andy Murray. He is to donate his prize money at Queen's to those affected by the Grenfell Tower Disaster.

That is a nice touch by Murray. Hats off to him!

Good one Andy