2016 Prediction Game

Hello,

I will try to run a relatively low-maintenance prediction game.  Will start with the AO, and if it works, may continue with other slams and maybe some other tournaments also.  I am a little tired of always seeing the same names in prediction games, so I am trying to set this one up so that it gives more room to the second tier players.

Here goes:

I list 16 pairs of players.  The goal is to pick, from each pair, the player who will advance deeper into the tournament.  If you get it wrong, you will get no points.  If you get it right, you will get one point for every extra round your pick makes.  So, for example, if you pick Tsonga from the Tsonga-Berdych pairing, and if Tsonga advances to Rd4, while Berdych loses in Rd1, you will get 3 points.  No points are awarded to anyone for the pairings where both players progress equally far.  Whoever gets the highest point total wins the game.

Additional Rules:
1.  If two posters score the same number of points, ties are broken by looking at highest scores from individual pairings.  E.g. if poster A gets 8 points as 3+2+1+1+1+0s, and poster B gest 8 points as 3+1+1+1+1+1+0s, then poster A wins on account of his/her second best pick giving him/her 2 points.

2.  Deadline for submission of picks is 11am Melbourne time on Monday (which I believe is midnight in the UK).  Late submissions are accepted or rejected at the sole and arbitrary discretion of the game organizer.

Please join in - the more the merrier - and good luck!

Here are the pairs:

1. Tsonga - Berdych
2. Anderson - Cilic
3. Seppi - Bellucci
4. Dimitrov - Paire
5. Tomic - Isner
6. Rosol - Vesely
7. Robredo - Granollers
8. Nadal - Wawrinka
9. Chung - A Zverev
10. Simon - Goffin
11. Nishikori - Raonic
12. Kyrgios - Thiem
13. Coric - Kudla
14. Fognini - Monfils
15. Chardy - F. Lopez
16. Sock - Garcia-Lopez

My picks:

1. Tsonga
2. Anderson
3. Seppi
4. Paire
5. Tomic
6. Vesely
7. Granollers
8. Wawrinka
9. A Zverev
10. Simon
11. Raonic
12. Kyrgios
13. Coric
14. Monfils
15. F. Lopez
16. Sock

1. Tsonga
2. Cilic
3. Seppi
4. Dimitrov
5. Tomic
6. Vesely
7. Robredo
8. Nadal
9. A Zverev
10. Goffin
11. Raonic
12. Kyrgios
13. Coric
14. Monfils
15. F Lopez
16. GGL

Tsonga
Anderson
Seppi
Paire
Tomic
Vesely
Robredo
Nadal
Zverev
Goffin
Raonic
Kyrgios
Coric
Monfils
Chardy
Sock

1. Berdych
2. Anderson
3. Seppi
4. Dimitrov
5. Isner
6. Vesely
7. Robredo
8. Wawrinka
9. Chung
10. Goffin
11. Nishikori
12. Thiem
13. Coric
14. Fognini
15. Lopez
16. Sock

1. Berdych
2. Anderson
3. Seppi
4. Paire
5. Isner
6. Rosol
7. Robredo
8. Nadal
9. Chung
10. Simon
11. Nishikori
12. Thiem
13. Coric
14. Fognini
15. Chardy
16. Sock

1. Tsonga
2. Cilic
3. Seppi
4. Paire
5. Tomic
6. Rosol
7. Robredo
8. Wawrinka
9. A Zverev
10. Goffin
11. Nishikori
12. Kyrgios
13. Kudla
14. Monfils
15. F. Lopez
16. Garcia-Lopez

90 minutes to go - anyone else to join in the game?

Interesting idea and good challenge! Thanks, summerblues.

1. Berdych
2. Anderson
3. Bellucci
4. Paire
5. Isner
6. Rosol
7. Robredo
8. Nadal
9. A Zverev
10. Goffin
11. Nishikori
12. Kyrgios
13. Coric
14. Fognini
15. F. Lopez
16. Garcia-Lopez

Dimitrov pickers off to a good start, with Paire out.

With Vesely gone, I'm suddenly a big supporter of whoever Rosol is playing in R1!

Vesely, Pair, Coric all gone; ouch.  Pair is most worrisome, as Dimitrov is capable of going on a run and winning a number of matches.  Hopefully Fed is in good form to stop that.

I watched a bit of Coric.  I am not at all sold on him.  I have really only saw him properly at the USO against Rafa where I thought he was quite disappointing, and he did not look any better yesterday.  Very lightweight; has difficulty hitting through the court with authority.

I think currently its:

Dimitrov +1
Cilic +1
Rosol +1
Kudla +1
Wawrinka +1
Monfils +1

The real danger one is obviously Wawrinka. The three who have picked him are probably on for at least +5.

Yes, Wawrinka could be big.  Nadal going out in Rd1 was quite unexpected.

This is the standings I get after Rd 1 (if you see any bad totals, please let me know):

1. It Must Be Love: 5
2. Born Slippy: 3
3. summerblues: 2
3. legendkillarV2: 2
5. Guest82: 1
5. Mad for Chelsea: 1
5. YvonneT: 1

After Rd2, IMBL is running away with it, followed by Born Slippy, and then everyone else bunched up far behind:

1. It Must Be Love: 12pts
2. Born Slippy: 9pts
3. summerblues: 6pts
3. legendkillarV2: 6pts
5. YvonneT: 4pts
6. Guest82: 3pts
6. Mad for Chelsea: 3pts

well at least Guest is here to keep me company

Rosol beating Wawrinka would suit me very nicely though

MfC, sorry to disappoint, but after Rd3 Guest is no longer keeping you company:

1. It Must Be Love: 14pts
2. Born Slippy: 10pts
3. summerblues: 8pts
4. legendkillarV2: 7pts
5. Guest82: 4pts
6. YvonneT: 4pts
7. Mad for Chelsea: 3pts

oh noes!

Grr, basically IMBL's mindset of never picking Nadal to win anything is costing me this!

LOL, I was thinking the same earlier today. But, in the end, it does not matter how he gets there as long as he gets there.

After Rd 4. Not much is changing anymore.

1. It Must Be Love: 15pts
2. Born Slippy: 11pts
3. summerblues: 9pts
4. legendkillarV2: 8pts
5. Guest82: 5pts
6. YvonneT: 5pts
7. Mad for Chelsea: 4pts

Very nice setup, SB. Will join this in the next slam, if you choose to run it.

laverfan wrote:Very nice setup, SB. Will join this in the next slam, if you choose to run it.

Thank you. I might. One downside is that while it is relatively easy to maintain for me, it takes some initial effort from the participants who may need to go through the drawsheet and see where the players are sitting and who their potential opponents are.

I was trying to set it up that so that it forces us to think of the lower ranked guys that we normally do not focus on nearly as much.

IMBL is the winner.  Congrats IMBL!  No real changes in the final rankings:

1. It Must Be Love: 15pts
2. Born Slippy: 12pts
3. summerblues: 10pts
4. legendkillarV2: 8pts
5. Guest82: 6pts
6. YvonneT: 5pts
7. Mad for Chelsea: 4pts

Thank you bery much for sure, congrats to Born Slippy and his team for a fantastic 2 weeks and best of luck for the rest of the season. Remember you are a fantastic champion and I'm sure you will have chances to win again in future.
Is important victory for me, I workéd bery hard during the off-season practicing predictions and am going to keep practicing to improve and hopefully build on this result. Also thank you to Kia, is great car for sure.

that advert, is it supposed to be ironic or what, I mean it's pretty over the top it doesn't quite work for me

Thanks for the game, SB. It was certainly low maintenance from a player perspective, but the flip side to that is that there's no recovery once you've made a bad decision up front. Having picked Nadal, and not picked Monfils, I was doomed from round 1. Not sure if there is an easy way to add some middle weekend variation.

Yes, I'm guessing Stan and Monf accounted for 8 or so points, which is a huge chunk in this format?

Maybe a second round of picks at R4 stage could work?

Concept is good though!

YT, BS, thanks. If I do another game for RG, I will try to make some adjustments like you suggest.

I will definitely not go to daily predictions though - I would never have time for that, nor am I sure a lot of posters would diligently participate either.