RWC 15 - Pool B - South Africa, Scotland, Samoa, Japan, USA

First topic message reminder :

    
The pool with all the Ss - well three of them.

Teams:

South Africa (3) [13/2]
Scotland (10) [250/1]
Samoa (12) [500/1]
Japan (13) [2500/1]
USA (15) [5000/1]

Fixtures:

19 Sep South Africa v Japan
20 Sep Samoa v USA
23 Sep Scotland v Japan
26 Sep South Africa v Samoa
27 Sep Scotland v USA
3 Oct Samoa v Japan
3 Oct South Africa v Scotland
7 Oct South Africa v USA
10 Oct Samoa v Scotland
11 Oct USA v Japan


South Africa have to back up 4 days between their last last two matches against Scotland and USA but you have to back the two-time winners to manage the games and performances to take out the pool.   It's the match seven days before their Scottish encounter that might take its heaviest toll going up against Samoa gunning for second spot from this pool.  

All eyes will be on the match between Scotland and Samoa in the final round on 10 Oct which will likely decide who emerges from this group behind South Africa.   Should be a raw encounter.

What price the Japanese causing an upset to any of these three?  Possibly their second match against Scotland in their first run-out, or Samoa caught cold in trying to rest players in between their matches against SA and Scotland?

Is there an upset in this pool?  And who will be upset?

It feels a bit strange having people from another nation trying to big up your own team for you, but having witnessed many, many, many pathetic 6N campaigns from Scotland - as well as a poor showing at the last world cup - you can hopefully understand why I'm being cautious about expecting too much.

The bottom line is that we have the best XV and best squad we've had for a number of years, but until we actually start producing good performances consistently and winning I'll remain pessimistic!

RDW after you mentioned that Romania game, I had a wee check to see what side we put. Dearie me, I mean we won by 10pts in the end, but it's no wonder we struggled:

15 Chris Paterson
14 Max Evans
13 Joe Ansbro
12 Sean Lamont
11 Simon Danielli
10 Ruaridh Jackson
9 Mike Blair
8 Richie Vernon
7 John Barclay
6 Kelly Brown
5 Alastair Kellock (c)
4 Richie Gray
3 Geoff Cross
2 Ross Ford
1 Allan Jacobsen

Replacements:
HK 16 Scott Lawson
PR 17 Alasdair Dickinson
LK 18 Nathan Hines
FL 19 Ross Rennie
SH 20 Chris Cusiter
FH 21 Dan Parks
FB 22 Rory Lamont

RDW_Scotland wrote:I would agree with that.

The problem is that we've only just established our First XV, and are still vulnerable if we mix it up - we will be playing combinations that have rarely played together.  As a nation too we've never been great at putting 'smaller' nations away - especially at world cups.

It is 4 years ago today since we played Romania in New Zealand and struggled badly - Timehop tells me that I was up at 2:30am watching the game and posted a lot of expletives on Facebook saying how crap Scotland were. You know Raudridh Jackson was playing bad when I said that he needs to be taken off pronto and replaced by Dan Parks!

I'm probably being overly negative - and if we're aiming to get to the quarters we shouldn't be overly worrying about our two easier games - but I can see these first two games being real dogfights and not easy run ins at all.

Yeah but that was our own doing, not how well Romania played. Against the smaller teams, we tend to start slow and get spooked when the smaller teams make a few breaks or score a try. We then rush things causing all manner of mistakes.

The message from Cotter against Japan and USA should be simple:

Absolutely feicing smash them from the 1st minute and get them thinking that ok....perhaps we haven't got a chance in hell after all. 2-3 early tries in the first 25-30 minutes and it's game over.

Ferocious intensity from the first kick. Nothing less will do.

EWT Spoons wrote:RDW after you mentioned that Romania game, I had a wee check to see what side we put.  Dearie me, I mean we won by 10pts in the end, but it's no wonder we struggled:

15 Chris Paterson
14 Max Evans
13 Joe Ansbro
12 Sean Lamont
11 Simon Danielli
10 Ruaridh Jackson  
9 Mike Blair  
8 Richie Vernon
7 John Barclay  
6 Kelly Brown
5 Alastair Kellock (c)
4 Richie Gray  
3 Geoff Cross
2 Ross Ford  
1 Allan Jacobsen

Replacements:
HK 16 Scott Lawson  
PR 17 Alasdair Dickinson  
LK 18 Nathan Hines  
FL 19 Ross Rennie  
SH 20 Chris Cusiter  
FH 21 Dan Parks  
FB 22 Rory Lamont

That was pretty much our first XV though, a team that we were confident would make the quarter finals, and would certainly put Romania away easily!

Let's try to put this in context. Samoa have beaten us once in 9 attempts.

The last 4 meetings between Scotland and Samoan are well worth revisiting.

23 June 2012
Apia Park, Apia
16 – 17 to Scotland

Harley scored an injury time try and Laidlaw's conversion in the last seconds won the game.

Scotland team that day:
Scotland: Hogg, Lamont, Ansbro, Scott, Visser, Laidlaw, Cusiter, Grant, Ford, Murray, Kellock, Gray, Strokosch, Rennie, Vernon.
Replacements: Evans for Ansbro (54), Blair for Cusiter (43), Lawson for Ford (59), Ryder for Kellock (69). Not Used: Cross, Harley, Weir.

27 November 2010
Pittodire, Aberdeen
19 – 16 to Scotland

Ruaridh Jackson kicked a 78th minute penalty to win it. One try apiece.

Scotland team that day:
Scotland: H Southwell; N Walker, J Ansbro, G Morrison, S Lamont; D Parks, R Lawson (capt); A Jacobsen, R Ford, E Murray, N Hines, R Gray, K Brown, R Vernon, J Barclay.
Replacements: D Hall, M Low, J Hamilton, R Rennie, M Blair, R Jackson, M Evans.

20 November 2005
Murrayfield, Edinburgh
18 – 11 to Scotland

A Marcus Di Rollo try (five words you never, ever see in that order) in the 74th minute was enough to win it.

Scotland team that day:
Scotland: Paterson; R Lamont, Di Rollo, Henderson, S Lamont; Parks, Cusiter; Jacobsen, Lawson, Smith; Hamilton, Murray; White, Taylor, Hogg.
Replacements: Southwell for R. Lamont (47), Godman for Parks (60), Blair for Cusiter (60), Hall for Lawson (64), Kerr for Smith (47), Kellock for Hamilton (40), Brown for White (70).

The most recent result is the one that everyone will focus on:

Samoa 27-17 Scotland
8 June 2013
Mr Price Kings Park, Durban

Just comparing the teams who played at that last match:

Samoa : Sooialo, Leiua, Williams, Leota, Tuilagi, T. Pisi, Sua, Mulipola, Avei, C. Johnston, F. Paulo, Leo, Treviranus, Lam, T. Tuifua.
Replacements: Leiataua, Taulafo, J. Johnston, Lemalu, Poluleuligaga, Vaaulu, Mapusua, Faosiliva.

Scotland: Tonks, Lamont, Dunbar, Scott, Visser, Heathcote, Laidlaw, Dickinson, MacArthur, Murray, Gilchrist, Kellock, Strokosch, Brown, Beattie.
Replacements: Lawrie, Low, Cross, Hamilton, Wilson, Pyrgos, Horne, Taylor.

*****

So what can we conclude?
- The game is likely to be very, very tight.
- Scotland have a stronger team than that which played in 2013 - compare Hogg to Tonks, Seymour to Lamont, Russell to Heathcote, Ford to MacArthur, Nel to Murray (whose powers were on the wane even then), J Gray to Kellock, Strauss to Beattie.
- We must, of course, respect them but we should not fear Samoa - we have matched their physicality before.
- The number of bombed tries and points left out on the field in 2013 was the reason that we lost - not through any superlative skills from the opposition.

RDW_Scotland wrote:

EWT Spoons wrote:RDW after you mentioned that Romania game, I had a wee check to see what side we put.  Dearie me, I mean we won by 10pts in the end, but it's no wonder we struggled:

15 Chris Paterson
14 Max Evans
13 Joe Ansbro
12 Sean Lamont
11 Simon Danielli
10 Ruaridh Jackson  
9 Mike Blair  
8 Richie Vernon
7 John Barclay  
6 Kelly Brown
5 Alastair Kellock (c)
4 Richie Gray  
3 Geoff Cross
2 Ross Ford  
1 Allan Jacobsen

Replacements:
HK 16 Scott Lawson  
PR 17 Alasdair Dickinson  
LK 18 Nathan Hines  
FL 19 Ross Rennie  
SH 20 Chris Cusiter  
FH 21 Dan Parks  
FB 22 Rory Lamont

That was pretty much our first XV though, a team that we were confident would make the quarter finals, and would certainly put Romania away easily!

It was, but to be fair, if that team played against our current 2nd string, i'd be pretty confident the current 2nd string players would get a result. Maybe it's unfounded confidence, but I just think we have better players than we had then (sadly a number of it left at home)

My friend Caz the quiet Bok has posted on FB his ticket for the quarter final with the comment, "Boks v England/Aus/Wales.

I shall be praying every night for a Scotland v Fiji match that day.

Actually the fixtures could work out in our favour as long as Samoa don't do a Hadden and concede the Boks game. The Bok have an easy start against the sons of Nippon (who then play us four days after they have faced the Boks) and then a bruisingly physical match against Samoa. I think Samoa will go for it big time, as the hip young people say, because they probably feel they have a point to prove. As in beating a country who wont allow them into the Rugby Championship but would rather pull in Pumas from half way around the world. Samoa also know they can field their B side against Japan and give their A team a week off before playing Scotland in what should be the decider for runner up in the group.

So, do the Boks play their best XV against Japan and then Samoa? If they do then they will be hitting their stride by the Scotland game, but they could also be missing a few due to injury. A weakened team against Japan could leave them short of match practice for Samoa. And a narrow defeat, or unconvincing victory would put them under all kinds of pressure before they face Scotland.

I think the Bok will play their strongest side for both games; beat Japan convincingly and then beat Samoa in the last quarter. I would expect an element of resting /rotating squad members (ooh er) for the Scotland game safe in the knowledge that their next match is the Eagles and either Scotland or Samoa will lose their final match. On this Newtonian logic do I base my belief that Scotland can win  against the Bok and I'm not wasting my precious bawbees going all the way to Noocassel.

George Carlin wrote:Let's try to put this in context. Samoa have beaten us once in 9 attempts.

The last 4 meetings between Scotland and Samoan are well worth revisiting.

23 June 2012
Apia Park, Apia
16 – 17 to Scotland

Harley scored an injury time try and Laidlaw's conversion in the last seconds won the game.

Scotland team that day:
Scotland: Hogg, Lamont, Ansbro, Scott, Visser, Laidlaw, Cusiter, Grant, Ford, Murray, Kellock, Gray, Strokosch, Rennie, Vernon.
Replacements: Evans for Ansbro (54), Blair for Cusiter (43), Lawson for Ford (59), Ryder for Kellock (69). Not Used: Cross, Harley, Weir.

27 November 2010
Pittodire, Aberdeen
19 – 16 to Scotland

Ruaridh Jackson kicked a 78th minute penalty to win it. One try apiece.

Scotland team that day:
Scotland: H Southwell; N Walker, J Ansbro, G Morrison, S Lamont; D Parks, R Lawson (capt); A Jacobsen, R Ford, E Murray, N Hines, R Gray, K Brown, R Vernon, J Barclay.
Replacements: D Hall, M Low, J Hamilton, R Rennie, M Blair, R Jackson, M Evans.

20 November 2005
Murrayfield, Edinburgh
18 – 11 to Scotland

A Marcus Di Rollo try (five words you never, ever see in that order) in the 74th minute was enough to win it.

Scotland team that day:
Scotland: Paterson; R Lamont, Di Rollo, Henderson, S Lamont; Parks, Cusiter; Jacobsen, Lawson, Smith; Hamilton, Murray; White, Taylor, Hogg.
Replacements: Southwell for R. Lamont (47), Godman for Parks (60), Blair for Cusiter (60), Hall for Lawson (64), Kerr for Smith (47), Kellock for Hamilton (40), Brown for White (70).

The most recent result is the one that everyone will focus on:

Samoa 27-17 Scotland
8 June 2013
Mr Price Kings Park, Durban

Just comparing the teams who played at that last match:

Samoa : Sooialo, Leiua, Williams, Leota, Tuilagi, T. Pisi, Sua, Mulipola, Avei, C. Johnston, F. Paulo, Leo, Treviranus, Lam, T. Tuifua.
Replacements: Leiataua, Taulafo, J. Johnston, Lemalu, Poluleuligaga, Vaaulu, Mapusua, Faosiliva.

Scotland: Tonks, Lamont, Dunbar, Scott, Visser, Heathcote, Laidlaw, Dickinson, MacArthur, Murray, Gilchrist, Kellock, Strokosch, Brown, Beattie.
Replacements: Lawrie, Low, Cross, Hamilton, Wilson, Pyrgos, Horne, Taylor.

*****

So what can we conclude?
- The game is likely to be very, very tight.
- Scotland have a stronger team than that which played in 2013 - compare Hogg to Tonks, Seymour to Lamont, Russell to Heathcote, Ford to MacArthur, Nel to Murray (whose powers were on the wane even then), J Gray to Kellock, Strauss to Beattie.
- We must, of course, respect them but we should not fear Samoa - we have matched their physicality before.
- The number of bombed tries and points left out on the field in 2013 was the reason that we lost - not through any superlative skills from the opposition.

This is an excellent post, with facts and stuff, and I completely agree with the conclusion. Forget about IRB rankings and all that guff. We are the better side on paper and have overcome Samoan physicality in the past, and should do so again. Our starting pack is very powerful with our smallest player being John Hardie. He doesn't strike me as a player who will be concerned about Samoan physicality. Worth also noting that refs are now all over shoulder charges and no arms tackles. I'm not besmirching Samoan rugby by saying this, but some of their traditional tackling styles (Brian Lima knows what I'm talking about) will simply result in three points against and potentially a yellow card.

As long as we don't do something silly like pick Lamont just because he's big, we'll be fine.

funnyExiledScot wrote:
As long as we don't do something silly like pick Lamont just because he's big, we'll be fine.

No, we'll pick Schlong because he's better than McMisser, Hogg is injured, Maitland is at full back, Seymour has done his back in scoring his fourth try against the Boks and Richie V is on the other wing.

Samoa in world cups are another level up from annual NH tours, they get many of their players they don't normally get for winter tours. The match in SA was different, they actually had a lot of players available as it was end of season NH and mid-season break SH. Scotland too put out the best available side bar Gray, Maitland & Hogg, it was stark... Scotland will have to be at their best to win. Things look promising but they have to go ahead early.. they're not a side who can come back from behind, mentally they're not a strong team... 15 years of defeat after defeat does that to you.

They also have more time together than their usual barbarians type 1 week before preparation time.

It will be tight, very tight.

jimbopip wrote:

funnyExiledScot wrote:
As long as we don't do something silly like pick Lamont just because he's big, we'll be fine.

No, we'll pick Schlong because he's better than McMisser, Hogg is injured, Maitland is at full back, Seymour has done his back in scoring his fourth try against the Boks and Richie V is on the other wing.

Hogg will be fit by Samoa.

No disrespect to Samoa, but I think Scotland will win. Samoa cough up penalties a lot for simple things like going offside, being overly enthusiastic at the rucks etc. Laidlaw is a bright captain and he'll make the most of this. Scotland are much more street smart. If Scotland defend well, attack well, they will win, simple as that. Play like they did at times in the 6N then yes, Samoa might beat Scotland due total incompetence of Scotland being able to do the simple things correctly.

Samoa recent results have been 6 point win over Wasps, a loss and a draw to Fiji, win by 1 point to Canada, win by 5 points to USA, lose by 9 points to an NZ B team (who would have beaten Scotland too I imagine).

my only concern is Scotland lose their composure under pressure, but I think the current side don't really do that so much anymore. Also the weather might be really awful on game day, it will be Newcastle in late September after all.
I am expecting Scotland to be a bit like Wales were last World Cup, new faces making a big impact.

The composure point is the key here. It's basically a knock-out game and the risk is that we tense up and revert back to a narrow style of play in the believe that it's less of a risk, rather than trusting our new attacking game plan. Who can forget that awful QF against Argentina where the players froze on the pitch, and only started playing once the game was lost.

Hopefully having the likes of Russell and Hogg in the back line will mitigate that, as both have confidence and belief in spades.

Right then gentlemen.

Not to pi$$ on awayandbileyerheid's chips but we have three spare tickets for Scotland v Japan.

They will cost no more than £45 which could drop to £40 each if all three tickets are sold.

You do not have to join our group but are more than welcome if you enjoy copious amounts of alcohol, singing and persistent jolly japes.

You know you want to....

Tattie Scones RRN wrote:Right then gentlemen.

Not to pi$$ on awayandbileyerheid's chips but we have three spare tickets for Scotland v Japan.

They will cost no more than £45 which could drop to £40 each if all three tickets are sold.

You do not have to join our group but are more than welcome if you enjoy copious amounts of alcohol, singing and persistent jolly japes.

You know you want to....

Dammit - a bit more notice and I would have shotgunned that straight away!

2 weeks not enough RDW?

Not when your holiday year expires the end of September and you don't have enough left.

Unless I do it as a day trip!

That's the spirit!

Unless you have a migraine coming.......

I think Scotland will beat Samoa and qualify.

I'm not convinced by this South Africa team and I wouldn't be surprised if one of the above gives them a significant scare.

Japan and USA unlikely to make a huge impact, but they could surprise Samoa if Samoa are focusing on the bigger games.

Samoa won't get close to SA. They can deal with big beasts running down their channel any day. Scotland too I feel although I think they can give them a game.. the question is, will they give them one?

The one thing that can upsurp SA is getting the upper hand in the front five and playing a high intensity wide game, make them run.

Agreed, whilst I do think SA are the most vulnerable of the Big Three, I don't see Samoa or Scotland beating them. A scare perhaps, maybe even a half time lead, but the relentless physicality of the Boks plus the experience and cold headed pragmatism within their ranks will see them through the group unscathed.

Whether the Boks will progress past the Runner-Up of Pool A is a different question. I think that's going to be England at Twickenham which may well end the Bok campaign.

I think Australia may beat SA in a QF... but not England.

England to win need to have the wind in their sails and facing the boks means losing a game to AUS or Wales. The boks haven't lost a game in 9 years vs. England and never have looked losing regardless of close games.

Had England had Hartley & Tuilagi... I could see it, but not if they aren't on a serious roll. On losing at twickenham in the pool I think the twickenham factor will become a negative one rather than the 16th man.

Tattie Scones RRN wrote:Right then gentlemen.

Not to pi$$ on awayandbileyerheid's chips but we have three spare tickets for Scotland v Japan.

They will cost no more than £45 which could drop to £40 each if all three tickets are sold.

You do not have to join our group but are more than welcome if you enjoy copious amounts of alcohol, singing and persistent jolly japes.

You know you want to....

I'm flying from heathrow EDIT TO JAPAN the next day... is this a good idea?

Tattie Scones RRN wrote:Right then gentlemen.

Not to pi$$ on awayandbileyerheid's chips but we have three spare tickets for Scotland v Japan.

They will cost no more than £45 which could drop to £40 each if all three tickets are sold.

You do not have to join our group but are more than welcome if you enjoy copious amounts of alcohol, singing and persistent jolly japes.

You know you want to....

I could do it as a day trip. Let me ponder....

George Carlin wrote:So what can we conclude?
- The game is likely to be very, very tight.
- Scotland have a stronger team than that which played in 2013 - compare Hogg to Tonks, Seymour to Lamont, Russell to Heathcote, Ford to MacArthur, Nel to Murray (whose powers were on the wane even then), J Gray to Kellock, Strauss to Beattie.
- We must, of course, respect them but we should not fear Samoa - we have matched their physicality before.
- The number of bombed tries and points left out on the field in 2013 was the reason that we lost - not through any superlative skills from the opposition.

Yes, I agree with all of this and believe Scotland start as favourites. But equally Samoa are looking at those most recent results and thinking 'absolutely no reason we can't take this', especially with the emotion of the World Cup, and the unusually large amount of time they get in camp together, which always seems to bring out the best in the teams who are hovering around this level like Samoa.

I must say, it is the game I am most eagerly anticipating that doesn't involve Ireland.

On any known form the easiet group of all.Boks will win without breaking sweat just
milk penalties for Steyn and lambie to kick.
Will be better than the RC? couldn't be worse 3 losses 2 at home that farce is over
they wanted quotas they got quotas.Meyer says well look at the results then picks
the hidden in camps for RWC surprise ,surprise.
Matfield best line out Jumper in living memory?not even close, best lineout organizer
try Tom Donnelly.Average Jumperpeerless organizer 2010 any one.
Wonder how todays jumpers would get on when lifting was illegal [and policed]
even tho Boks were master of it even then.
For the record better than Matfield in my opinion,Johan Claasen,Frik Du Preez,Gordon Brown,
John Eales,Tiny White,Nev MacEwan,Alan Stewart,Stan Meads,Andy Haden,Peter Whiting,
and before Achilles injury Ali Williams.

emack2 wrote:On any known form the easiet group of all.Boks will win without breaking sweat just
milk penalties for Steyn and lambie to kick.
Will be better than the RC? couldn't be worse 3 losses 2 at home that farce is over
they wanted quotas they got quotas.Meyer says well look at the results then picks
the hidden in camps for RWC surprise ,surprise.
Matfield best line out Jumper in living memory?not even close, best lineout organizer
try Tom Donnelly.Average Jumperpeerless organizer 2010 any one.
Wonder how todays jumpers would get on when lifting was illegal [and policed]
even tho Boks were master of it even then.
For the record better than Matfield in my opinion,Johan Claasen,Frik Du Preez,Gordon Brown,
John Eales,Tiny White,Nev MacEwan,Alan Stewart,Stan Meads,Andy Haden,Peter Whiting,
and before Achilles injury Ali Williams.

Alan, maybe it is time you reassess your opinion about the Springboks, they haven't just kicked penalties for quite some time, they have scored more than 100 tries under Meyer in his first three years, second only to New Zealand.

The injuries are ligitimate, you don't fake neck operations.

I am not a fan of Victor Matfield, but none of those names you list are going to be around this world cup, and whether you carry bias towards amateur players or not, Matfield has been the best line out operator in the last 15 years, comparing players from different eras under different laws is a waste of time.

You can only be measured against your opponents during the time you played.

Just learning this little number:


Wow. Once the room stops spinning, I'll be freaking fine.

Biltong everyone is entitled to his opinion,RWCs are not won by spinning the ball
especially in NH conditions .Matfield HAS not been the best consistenly for 15 years
at times Anton Boric,ChrisJack,AliWilliams.and Sam Whitelock have been as good or better.
He is certainly a great lock no dispute,Lineout is combination of thrower,lifter,catcher
PRACTICE.
As to injuries SORRY in RWC year AGAIN I`m to cynical to accept that all credibility
lost for me post 2007.
The RWC will turn on Refs decisions and Penalty/Drop goals as always except versus
minnows don`t expect it this year.RWC number 3 for Boks I reckon.

alive555 wrote:George Carlin asked me what I did

I'm interested in what he does ?

Uae is famous for attracting losers ! Let's see the name of that company and we can compare directly.  

Pretty much whatever I wish.

alive555 wrote:George Carlin asked me what I did

I'm interested in what he does ?

Uae is famous for attracting losers ! Let's see the name of that company and we can compare directly.  

Go Compare

IanBru wrote:Just learning this little number:


Wow. Once the room stops spinning, I'll be freaking fine.

See why can't we have a national anthem this upbeat?? I think half the problem of our players psychee is that you can only grumble 'Flower of Scotland', even if you belt it out you sound like the last patron in a pub of rotten memories.

I don't know if the Boks performance in the RC is too much to go by. The matches against NZ and AUS were very tight, and had the rub of the green gone our way (or had the tryline been a millimtre wider or narrower) we would have won both - I'm not complaining here, I'm just saying that in terms of quality, in those matches, the Boks were on a par with AUS and NZ. The loss to ARG was an aberration.

The real question is: how much has all the quota nonsense unsettled the Boks?

I think the Boks are going to be very strong and will win the group with relative ease - I think they will beat Australa or Wales in the QF, but don't think they would get past England at Twickenham. It would be close though and with a bit of luck they could feasibly win that too.

As has been said - the RC performance doesn't mean they are suddenly a bad team.

RDW_Scotland wrote:I think the Boks are going to be very strong and will win the group with relative ease - I think they will beat Australa or Wales in the QF, but don't think they would get past England at Twickenham.  It would be close though and with a bit of luck they could feasibly win that too.

As has been said - the RC performance doesn't mean they are suddenly a bad team.

Come now, let's continue to underplay the Boks, it has been working so far.

England don't have it within them to come from behind to beat the boks. They would have to be frontrunners but with their pack problems and no guy able to smash the door down bar Burgess (who won't play) I don't see it happening.

fa0019 wrote:England don't have it within them to come from behind to beat the boks. They would have to be frontrunners but with their pack problems and no guy able to smash the door down bar Burgess (who won't play) I don't see it happening.

I don't actually think England's "pack problems" will materialise. Whilst their pack isn't the biggest, what they do have is a very hard working and technically proficient group of forwards, driven hard by Ben Youngs and with Ford pulling the strings. In Joseph, May and Watson they also have pretty impressive strike power out wide, with Barritt a very underrated 12. The England pack doesn't contain any monsters bar Vunipola/Morgan, but in terms of collective workrate you'll struggle to get a more hard working/mobile collective than Cole, Youngs, Marler, Launchbury, Lawes, Wood and Robshaw, with Vunipola/Morgan at 8. They'll be difficult to break down, and SA will need to show a bit more inspiration than we've seen in recent times. I don't think power will be enough.

I think the best two sides in the world are New Zealand and Australia, which is why I think Australia will edge England to take that Group, but there's just something a bit disjointed about the Boks at the moment. You guys have some awesome individuals (any pack featuring Du Plessis, Etzebeth and Vermeulen is going to be dangerous), but it just doesn't seem to fit together with any sort of cohesion. That said, it's not a problem that ever seems to affect France come the World Cup, and you certainly have the talent to go all the way. But just looking at recent performances over the last 6 months, my money (not a lot of it admittedly) would be on England to scape past you in the QF.

England will suffer vs. SA mainly because the of the Lineout. Matfield will target Youngs and he will know it... not the sort of hooker who throws great under pressure either.

Have a bad lineout and your entire game goes bust. Victor won't offer anything else but when you disrupt an already shaky lineout, you're worth a place on the team.

You can have all the workrate in the world but if you'e being beaten at the breakdown and ruck areas you'll struggle and for every Lawes, Robshaw & Vunipola, the boks have Bismarck, Schalk Burger & Vermeulen (you can't get better dog than those three).
Burger is old yes but he's been on great form all season, back to his best and I fancy him to again get bok of the year award.

Hmmm, I'm genuinely neutral on the outcome of a England vs Boks QF and I'm just not convinced you'll "out dog" England around the park as you've suggested.

I do think you're right on the lineout, although I don't think it'll be the landslide victory you're hoping for. England are well aware of their shortcomings and will be working tirelessly to fix them.

If we play the Boks the thought of Matfield up against Tom Youngs throwing is terrifying

The knock out matches are one off matches, odds mean nothing, we can theorise all we want, any trsts in a knockout can bring a win or loss for any team

Matfield is good enough now that he doesn't need tune up games. De Villiers does but they have to be severely restricted as he is liable to fall apart at a minutes notice.

Du Preez... who knows, nobody knows not even Meyer. Same with Alberts, is he fit, is he match fit? Lets hope he isn't carrying too many extra kgs as he's already on the cusp.

SA vs AUS will be worrisome. They have the game to get into the boks heads. They are calm, excellent at retaining possession, wear teams down and then spin it off to their 3/4s after 15 phases.

Pocock & Hooper too will be an absolute handful. With Skelton I can't see the boks putting AUS on too much of a backfoot but a lack of a genuine quality kicker evens things out a little.

I'd seriously think about Steyn on the bench mind. Why else will he be part of the squad?

fa0019 wrote:Matfield is good enough now that he doesn't need tune up games. De Villiers does but they have to be severely restricted as he is liable to fall apart at a minutes notice.

Du Preez... who knows, nobody knows not even Meyer. Same with Alberts, is he fit, is he match fit? Lets hope he isn't carrying too many extra kgs as he's already on the cusp.

SA vs AUS will be worrisome. They have the game to get into the boks heads. They are calm, excellent at retaining possession, wear teams down and then spin it off to their 3/4s after 15 phases.

Pocock & Hooper too will be an absolute handful. With Skelton I can't see the boks putting AUS on too much of a backfoot but a lack of a genuine quality kicker evens things out a little.

I'd seriously think about Steyn on the bench mind. Why else will he be part of the squad?

FA, first pont of note, the boks have been put under the kosh fitness wise, some tweets reported how much weight the players have last 5, 8 kg's

So I expect the Boks to be much fitter than we are used too.

At the breakdown we have Louw, Bismarck and Duane, not even Pocock and Hooper worries me.

Will Skelton is a heavy lump, unfit and can't dominate for longer than 20 minutes at a time, he is a liability in thr line out and it is only in the close combat zone and scrums where he adds anything to thr Aussie pack, he won't be a starter and we will see him used in the last quarter.

We know what the Boks are capble of when they keep ball in hand, in every match since 2012 when the Boks switched it on they handled OZ defence with ease.

The only criteria is they must play 80 minutes.

In fact I will mske a bold statement.

If the Boks turn it on, they will beat any team, the question is has Meyer learnt his lessons and will the Boks play 80 minutes.

I actually rate Skelton very highly. Yes he looks a bit of a lump but no one pushes back a scrum with him in it and his lifting in the lineout is ridiculous.

His ball handling in midfield is also very impressive, better than most 12s.

The only problem about fitness is that 6 of 8 in the pack are over 30. Duane is 29, Eben is 23. Regardless of fitness, that is worrying. They can't play for 80 mins... not against a pack 4-5 years younger on average.

Lood, Malherbe, Nyakane, Pieter Steph, Kolisi are all you g and capable,

That is why my suggestion was you keep the old guys on the bench, much easier for them to play 20 minutes of intense rugby in the last quarter

That would be suicide though BB.

You can't throw in loads of youngsters into side, they would get hammered because those guys you list... do any of them have more than 10 caps?

Maybe

(vs Aus)

Mtawarira, Bissie, Malherbe, Etzebeth, De Jager, Burger, Louw, Vermeulen

bench - Victor, Willem/Kolisi, Nyakane, Brits, Jannie

(vs Eng)

Mtawarira, Bissie, Malherbe, Etzebeth, Victor, Burger, Louw, Vermeulen

bench - Lood, Willem, Nyakane, Brits, Jannie

No tighthead will turn Frans in any potential QF so his workrate elsewhere can help the team a little. Victor has to start vs. England, has to. It would be like throwing away your ace. Flirt with the idea of bringing on Kolisi vs. Aus over Alberts but vs. England go to Alberts as they won't be competitive as AUS on the floor.

Fa, go to my thread if Meyer were smart.

There is my team

Age is just a number these days...

England in 2007 had 8 players over the age of 30 but in truth, whilst they came close, SA always looked good for the win. This bok side will have 9 players over the age of 30.

The game is a little tougher though 8 years on. More physical, more combative in the ruck. I can't see the team getting beyond the SF because of that.