PGA Tour: Riviera and Ryder Cup: Notes from the Ballwasher

1).This week sees the third of the three excellent California "Coast" tournaments, in Los Angeles at George Thomas's gem, Riviera. This week also sees the end of a stretch where the six courses used were designed by architects who preferred to enhance what nature had provided, if a hole was hard then perhaps nature made it that way. After this we'll be on to two venues where courses were designed to be hard or penal, or both, redesigned by blokes who felt they could trump (pun unintended of course) nature. I know which I prefer.

2).And I should have noted last week how good Torrey Pines' South Course looked two weeks ago, what Americans might call a broad-shouldered course, demanding but with stunning views and green settings. Only thing they got wrong was the cut of the rough, where lies a foot off the fairway were likely to be more difficult than those ten yards (or, as some found, out 50 yards) wide of the short stuff. Always a gripe, that.
Otherwise, is it blasphemous to suggest that it makes for a better US Open test than Pebble Beach which had to be tricked up in 2010 to keep the scores up?

3).Last week's AT&T National Pro-Am enjoyed spectacular weather and expect more of the same this week in LA.
Brandt Snedeker and Nick Watney are two of the better players to follow on Tour, both had fallen on leaner times than they were used to, and very happy to see them return to contention. Sneds is back to the Top 50 and in all the WGC's and Majors, Watney is still on the outside looking in, hopefully not for much longer.

4).'Course, they'd both like to make Jay Haas's Presidents Cup Team and probably love to play the 2016 Ryder Cup.
The speculation is rife that Davis Love will be announced as the 2016 US Ryder Cup captain next week, at PGA HQ close by PGA National, site of the Honda Classic. Not quite sure why he didn't go into hibernation for a week to escape the media throng. But NO! He opted to take a very late pass into this week's Riviera field and how he gets to say "No Comment" is presumably something he'll be consulting fellow "Task Force" member Tiger Woods on.

5).One thing I don't understand is this:
Following the Miracle (or in their case Misery) at Medinah, the PGA Of America decided enough was enough, dispensed with the order of normal ascent to the Captaincy and chose Tom Watson to bring the Cup back to the "good old US of A".
After Watson's fiasco (who said Captains don't matter?) at Gleneagles, they announced a Task Force and, in their ultimate wisdom apparently chose to go back to Love whose Captaincy was felt to be lacking in the first place.
Any bets on Tom Watson for 2018? I've heard he's already taking French lessons.
Would think some heads are spinning, those of Couples and David Toms especially. (Apparently Azinger said he didn't want it.)

6).Fortunately there's a sense of natural progression in what the United States (or Donald Rumsfeld at least) call "Old Europe", and Welcome! to the hot seat to Darren Clarke. Thomas Bjorn next?

7).The strongest field of the PGA Tour's year so far has assembled at Riviera CC in Pacific Palisades, Los Angeles. Plenty of "International" golfers too, and three with decent track records here are Luke Donald (who needs a good tournament at least as much as Watney and Sneeedeker), Garcia and Schwartzel, but their recent form has been spotty/rusty, and you'd almost think they will be warming up (gaining reps?) for Florida.

8).I'm more interested in Casey, Molinari and Wiesberger; Casey because he needs to show his decision to abandon the E.T. was wise, Franny because his Tour season so far has been so promising and Riviera should suit him, and Bernd as his E.T. form has been so good.
Sadly no Shane Lowry, another who might be suited to Riviera; but Harrington is here as the tragedy of his decline has slumped from comedy to farce. Exhibit A being his play of his 18th hole at Spyglass last Saturday where a par would ensure he played Sunday, a bogey would get him paid, but St.Padraig conjured up a triple. Just the sort of thing to be expected from Greg Owen but not from a Major Champion.

9).Riviera is another horses-for-courses venue. Bubba won handsomely last year from Dustin Johnson, and DJ's form seems to be improving week by week, and Walker usually contends.
This year's Tour winners have been from the top drawer of PGA Tour Golf, Reed, Walker, Haas, Koepka, Day, Snedeker. Will we see another Top Fifty player or is it time for an outsider? Shilling each way fancies include last week's 3rd place finisher Charlie Beljan and his college teammate Spencer Levin, Chappell and Brendan Steele.

10).One final thought about Davis Love, and I'm a DLIII fan.
But: They say in rumoured testimony for Love that he's close to the players, he'll be a players' Captain, etc, etc, blah, blah, blah.
But he'll be 52; he's no longer competitive on the PGA Tour - he certainly won't be playing many weekends, more likely playing Champions Tour, where one trusts that he'll be going to Montgomerie or Sutton for tips and not to Langer.
The players he leant on at Medinah, Woods, Stricker, Furyk, Mickelson, Zach, Dufner, Kuchar, Watson, will all be in their 38th year at least, out of contention or already past it. Not all perhaps, but most.
That leaves Bradley, Dustin, Snedeker and Simpson.
More likely the bulk of his Team will be the newish generation of Young Americans, the Georgia Frat Boys like English and Henley who Love probably knows well from the cozy confines of the Golden Isles, or the free spirits such as Fowler and Spieth, Reed and Koepka.  
Not quite sure the 2014 Task Force has got this quite right. What price a Task Force for October 2016? That's all I'm saying.

PS: Just noticed this garbage about alleged bias towards the European Tour:

https://golfanalytics.wordpress.com/2015/02/18/bias-in-the-official-world-golf-ranking/

I would suggest that the real bias is towards America where 75% of Majors are held, and 75% of WGC's are held. Imagine that if these playing fields were somehow levelled out, that we'd find the owgr's more equitable.

He also uses the "Sagarin" rankings as his benchmark; they are the same Sagarin rankings that currently list, for instance, Steve Stricker 14th, and Paul Casey 36th. Among other eccentricities.

T0ssp0t.

Not sure there are many who would do a better job than DLIII and probably will play as many weekends as DC.

Although surely it was Couples chance..................

John,
Nothing against DL, just against the logic, or lack of it, behind his selection.

There have been suggestions that some Task Force members were anti-Couples, or at least anti his appointment. Sure all will be revealed, or at least rumoured.

kwinigolfer wrote:PS: Just noticed this garbage about alleged bias towards the European Tour:

https://golfanalytics.wordpress.com/2015/02/18/bias-in-the-official-world-golf-ranking/
I would suggest that the real bias is towards America where 75% of Majors are held, and 75% of WGC's are held. Imagine that if these playing fields were somehow levelled out, that we'd find the owgr's more equitable.
He also uses the "Sagarin" rankings as his benchmark; they are the same Sagarin rankings that currently list, for instance, Steve Stricker 14th, and Paul Casey 36th. Among other eccentricities.
T0ssp0t.

Indeed, comparing the OWGR with a "My objective system" and "Sagarin's objective system" without providing sufficient explanation about how 'My system' was conceived let alone give some kind of proof for the statement 'objective' makes the story build on quicksand from the start.

Great thread as always!

One of the best events on tour imo!

Just booked Irish Open tickets, haven't gone to one in ages (life gets in the way lol)...It was the one Lowry won in 09 vs Rock.

The last tournament I was at was the Open in 09 in the first round, I saw Cink strolling down he fairway, little did I know he would go on to win it.

I have discussed the Sagarin formulas before, and they are UNBIASED.  The only problem is the difference between 1st and 2nd place is the same as it is between 51st and 52nd.

In other words, Sagarin is a linear system and does not reward wins.  the OWGR is not linear and the difference between 1st and 2nd is a lot more than 50th and 51st.

Sagarin values consistency while the OWGR values winning.  

The European Tour is much more heavily subsidized than the PGATour.  This weeks tournament in Indian should be valued at OWGR level 14.  Its getting a level 19 instead.  It is one of about 10-12 tournaments that are subsidized.

kwinigolfer wrote:John,
Nothing against DL, just against the logic, or lack of it, behind his selection.

There have been suggestions that some Task Force members were anti-Couples, or at least anti his appointment. Sure all will be revealed, or at least rumoured.

Don't understand why they needed a task force to bring Love back in, unless they also discussed vice captains.
Azinger never really wanted the job IMO. With his ego I think he prefers being the mythical allknowing messiah who has the "secret" - both to winning Ryder Cups and fixing Tiger of course...

With regards to Clarke it was of course a no-brainer. Yet I see it as a major disadvantage that he wasn't VC at Gleneagles. Did Europe stray from its winning formula here?

GPB wrote: 
The European Tour is much more heavily subsidized than the PGATour.  This weeks tournament in Indian should be valued at OWGR level 14.  Its getting a level 19 instead.  It is one of about 10-12 tournaments that are subsidized.

Yeah. In fact I think it's a bit of an embarrassment to the ET to have this event in the schedule. Apart from MAJ (who clearly gets some apperance fee) the field is a farce.

GPB,
I agree about subsidies (and sometimes the web.com among other Tours also appears to benefit), but my point was that holding 75% of the eight biggest tournaments in one country is also a subsidy.

Couldn't care less about Sagarin, just saying using it as a benchmark for this bloke's thesis is ludicrous.

Good stuff Kwini. Near top of my list of US events. Agree totally your comments re course - it looks a cracker, and will persuade me to get through some of the awful coverage. Regrettably I can't do Pebble Beach with the zany eccentric and totally unique Bill Murray et al. Did I mention how funny he is (apparently thinks he is). Increasingly difficult to focus on any of the golf coverage, but hey ho probably says more about me than them!
Bjorn has been back on the players committee but I do wonder if his melt down over Woosie will reduce his options for captaincy? Probably not but its one of those "political" issues in which people can become mired.
Btw met a couple of the English lads who played Aussie Am at Australian - very complementary about it - I missed a good one!

Kwini

I am not sure why you are so dismissive of the idea that the European tour receives some bias in the OWGR?

The Columbia paper linked to in the article just seems to suggest you need to perform better on the pga tour to gain the same number of OWGR points as a european tour player.

I have no idea what the location of the WGC's has to do with the Broadie and Rendleman proposition.

Mac,
I'm not "dismissive of the idea that the E.T. receives some bias in the OWGR"; I'm merely saying that the staging of six out of 8 of the Major events on the calendar are in the US and that is a bias in itself.
I'm not saying either is good or bad, just saying someone coming out with a thesis on it as if he's just split the atom is nonsensical without balancing the work with the impact of other biases.


Hi puligny,
You back, or still in wine country?
Don't you think Bjorn's work with the E.T. will mitigate ill will about something that happened so long ago? (By the by, also felt McGinley was missing a trick by not bringing Thomas Levet along to Gleneagles - one or two of the French will surely have some role en Paris?)

Looking forward to seeing Riviera again - balls in the air @ 6.40 a.m. local.

Kwini, just back. Cold and raining! Hope it won't count against Bjorn, and there now seems less governing body influence, with the group of 5 making the decision, but you never know? Agree re Levet, or Van de Velde, or Ramesy. Maybe they will be with Darren?

Kwini

I am not trying to be difficult but I don't understand what the location of the WGC's and 3 of the majors has to do with the European tour handing out more points than might be fair?

Mac,
I wasn't aware that the European Tour was in the business of "handing out more points than might be fair".
Thought that was entirely under the purview of the owgr people.

I also think you're suggesting that Manchester United wouldn't be at a disadvantage if they played 3/4 of their games 3,000 miles from Manchester, and under criteria largely established there. That would certainly suit many football fans.

p,
You don't want to be here - amazing stat: as at yesterday, our Feb temps have been 14F degrees below normal . . . . . . . that's a lot!

Kwini

I think the point of the article was you have to play better relative to the course difficulty to get a OWGR point on the PGAT compared to the european tour. So still not sure where your home advantage points fits into the debate.

kW, I know I'm moaning about a little discomfort. Wasn't even that hot in Oz for some stretches! Still I've remembered where the jumpers are stored! Scenes your way, and Boston area look very uncomfortable!
One Oz anecdote - went to stay and play at Moonah Links. By reception noticed a plaque from the opening. A friend, golf buddy, and you would have to force the information out of him, but former captain and chairman of the R&A had done the honours! Long time member at my home club, and contrary to R&A stereotypes a really nice chap. Small world!

Mac,
That's not what it says, I don't think they mention the word "course" (not without a prefix anyway which creates an entirely different meaning) in the article, but then you've made a posting career recently of inventing an argument based upon something you admittedly haven't read.

I don't dispute his findings (other than that he uses the Sagarin rankings as a benchmark and that is ridiculous); I just dispute the assertion that there is an anti-PGA Tour bias without noting the pro-PGA Tour bias.


p,
Small world indeed. A guy who lives 100 yards down the road was an E.T. caddie for many years, who knew??!! Anyway, it enables me to get a sanity check on some of the antics on Tour. Interesting that he knew Iain McGregor, who died last year in Madeira - paraphrasing his comment: "There wasn't a likelier hole or a likelier caddie for that to happen." Perfect storm.
Next time send me a pm well before you leave and we'll have another go at The Australian!

Kwini

I read the abstract from the columbia article by Broadie and Rendleman http://www.columbia.edu/~mnb2/broadie/Assets/owgr_20120507_broadie_rendleman.pdf

Which states

" we compare the OWGR system with two unbiased methods for estimating golfer skill and performance. The first is a score-based skill estimation (SBSE) method, which uses scoring data to estimate golfer skill, taking into account the relative difficulty of the course in each tournament round...."

Their conclusion, which may or may not be correct is

"Using data from 2002 to 2010 and comparing the results ranks from the OWGR and score-based methods, we find that PGA Tour golfers are penalized by an average of 26 to 37 OWGR ranking positions compared to non-PGA Tour golfers"

"In all cases, the bias is large and statistically significant"


I am not about to check the whole thing and how it went down in the world of peer review, but I am not going to dismiss it as impossible like you have done.  In any case I dont see how the location of WGC's comes into it.


PS Its good to see your not still bitter about that time I didn't read you bashing of Tigers event.   :whistle:

(and this is sarcasm)

Mac,
My comment was with regard to the article I posted, not the Broadie thesis which is something quite different. But also uses flawed interpretation of "bias".

Kwini

What do you think is flawed about their interpretation of bias? I am interested in this as I have long wondered whether the OWGR system is fair to all the tours involved. I had long thought that the players of the PGAT and European tour were about equal in terms of skill level, but the original set up of the points system weighted the PGAT higher for no reason. And that we now see a historical bias holding back the players of the european tour.

But the columbia article does seem to contrast that view.

Mac,
Two staples in my opinion:
1).ALL subsidies are flawed and if the subsidy for E.T. events is based upon a previous strength of Tour, it should be reduced commensurately - but that applies in my mind to ALL Tours (and the web.com is no exception).

2).All sports favour the home team; even you would acknowledge that.
In addition to homefield advantage, 75% of the WGC's and Majors are staged in one country, two of them, and arguably more, with an inbuilt bias towards the home team in terms of qualification. This creates more opportunities for the home players to earn more owgr points - this guy bellyaches, for instance, that the owgr favours ET golfers in qualifying for Augusta. Maybe so, maybe not, but the tournament winner criteria is not available to them - the E.T. equivalent of Ben Martin (let's call him Paul Casey) will not be eligible.
etc. etc.
I could go on but that is bias. I'm not saying it's wrong, it's widely accepted, but it IS bias.

(A few weeks back, an Aussie tournament had the same "strength of field", according to the owgr site, as the same week's web.commer. The Aussie event (might have been the Vic Open) rewarded its winner with 7 points, the web.commer winner earned 14 pts.)

There are biases everywhere, some comprehensible, others not so much. But to say that there are biases to the European Tour compared to others is neither fair nor balanced commentary.

Nice write up Kwini.

Is the author of the article you linked a gentleman from the Deep South?  Does he write in a strong accent?

jalnichols wrote:
Broadie and Rendleman (2012) went into a lot of detail about the bias inherent in the OWGR. A encourage you to at least peruse that paper.

"A say, a say boy!" - Foghorn J Leghorn, 1972

Don't journalists proof read anymore?

Don't take this whole "home field advantage thing" for face value. Interestingly (to me at least) it does not always work that way. In the years 1980 to 2014 the British Open was won 17 times by Americans and 10 times by Europeans. And, during the same time period, the US Masters was won 18 times by Americans 11 times by Europeans. Point is ... top golfers are pretty comfortable and successful competing just about anywhere.

Bob

Kwini, you are starting to sound like a John Feinstein soundbite.  More Spit than Substance.

You are throwing out things that sounds good in on the surface, but when you go and actually analyzrewhat you said it does not stand up to scrutiny.

WGC's and Majors in the USA?  BFD.  90% of the WGC participants, where US citizens or Int'l players live in the USA, or want to be in the USA.

The Victoria Open SoF is equal to Web event SoF is a Out of context.  The Web-com is full of players who are first year players who have not had a chance to earn ranking points.  The Victoria Open field who have been playing the Aussie tour for the past few months.

I guarantee that many of the Vic Open players wish they were playing the Web-com tour.  I don't think many of the Web-com players wish they were playing the Aussie Tour.

Both tournaments had one player ranked (barely) inside the top 200 and that is all that counts in OWGR SoF calculations.  Its certainly not enough to say SoFs were equal.

Cobblers. You can't base an argument on rewarding players who "have not had a chance to earn ranking points" with potential points. How daft. I'm a Smith Barney man, though not quite as old as John Houseman.


Of considerable substance, and no spit (except from Keegs) is that any threat of morning fog seems to have dissipated at least enough for the Northern Trusties to get their balls in the air.

kwinigolfer wrote:You can't base an argument on rewarding players who "have not had a chance to earn ranking points" with potential points.

More information taken out of context.  I said nothing about "rewarding" players.

I am saying the Web-tour is better than the Aussie Tour.  And historical results prove that.  

I suspect many of those Vic Open players tried and failed at Web-Com q-school this year.  

{researching}

I count three players that played the Vic Open that failed to pass 2nd stage Web-com Q-school.

Nick Cullum - 2nd in Vic Open
Gareth Padderson - T6 in Vic Open
Aaron Townsend - T14 in Vic Open

So three players who could not advance to final stage Web-com Q-school finished in the top 15 at the Vic-Open.

You didn't say "reward" them specifically, you just said the web.com players should play for more points because "they are first year players who have not had a chance to earn ranking points".
All I'm saying is that, sometimes, that results in strength of field being out of whack with points awarded. I don't care, it's just an example of variances. As Bob suggested, all such rankings can't possibly be 100% consistent, of course they can't.
But don't allege bias (and I'm not saying you have, just that this moron has) towards one group without acknowledging that sometimes there's bias towards another group.
Swings and roundabouts, but the US narrative always seems to be the Europeans are favoured and I just don't think that's true.

Wrong, I am saying the Web-com should be playing for more points because it is a better tour.  History has proved that.

The SoF for Web-com is going to be low.  Because the OWGR only counts Top 200 players.  Most (all) of the Top 200 players graduated (and left) the Web tour leaving players ranked from 201-600.

Not many people posting thoughts on DC as ryder cup captain. Apparently MAJ was pretty disheartened at being overlooked and feels his chance has gone.


Kwini
The prevailing thoughts here (the UK) are that the PGAT is favoured when it comes to handing out OWGR points.

Would think MAJ could possibly play in it, whereas Clarke could never. I would see MAJ as a strong candidate for captaincy in 2018. I would think it's probably passed Bjorn by though.

Mac,
DC is a good choice, don't feel as if M-A J has ever positioned himself in the running; unfortunate but some have to miss out. Bjorn in 2018 for me! M-A J has gone the way of Sandy Lyle. The next tricky one for Europe will be fitting Harrington in or giving him a miss. Imagine opinion will be very divided!

!!!! The original precept of my 606 notes was to offer a counter opinion or update of the PGA tour to a European readership! Trying to be a devil's advocate the other way round is a thankless task!!
I'd say the owgr system as it stands is basically very fair. We'd all make changes, but very few that would disrupt the current balance of power.

Don't think Harrington has much hope, there's going to be a plethora of guys coming in after Clarke, Harrington hasn't distinguished himself enough to be in the running in my opinion.

Watney -5, Goose -4, the best of the rest is -2.
Ten players -2 or better.
23 players +2 or better.
Tough crowd.

Showing ET the middle finger and complaining over minimum events is not doing any good for Paddy. Plus he's a goof ball many pros find annoying. I would really be surprised if Paddy ever gets the nod.

Check out Piercys 10th hole on pgatour.com.... Can happen to most of us... In fact it happens to me - always....

Mmmm.
How'd'you make a SIX on a short hole like that? Holed a 7 footer to save double bogey.
Justin Leonard had a 7 on the same hole.

Erratic so far from Casey.
Donald missing greens and missing putts - that boy needs to pull himself together.

Meanwhile, Sagarin's favourite of years gone by, Fatty de Jonge who is normally so consistent, is struggling again. Big time.

Up front, the Red Barrel keeps on rolling out.

Vijay and the Goose making a pitch for Presidents Cup selection?

Seven groups in so far, three 60-something scores, three 80's!

Cejka in with the best round (68) by a European in the "morning wave". Only makes sense - he wasn't even in the field when he turned up at the course this morning.

Not so clever from Bernd and Luke Donald's abysmal form continues.

Harrington pretty snappy early on, straight out of the gate with two birds his first two holes. Keep it up Padraig . . . . . . . . .

kwinigolfer wrote:

Meanwhile, Sagarin's favourite of years gone by, Fatty de Jonge who is normally so consistent, is struggling again. Big time.

How is OWGR's former favorite Luke Donald doing?

See above, 5.15 pm: "Luke Donald's abysmal form continues". Actually, it continued even from there, a steady slide downhill.

Nice comeback for Casey though - he's played well here in the past and surely a course that should suit him?

super_realist wrote:Don't think Harrington has much hope, there's going to be a plethora of guys coming in after Clarke, Harrington hasn't distinguished himself enough to be in the running in my opinion.

As a player? He surely has or do you mean captaincy wise?

http://www.independent.ie/sport/golf/ryder-cup/padraig-harrington-claims-the-inmates-are-running-the-asylum-in-us-ryder-cup-captain-choice-31005034.html

pedro wrote:Showing ET the middle finger and complaining over minimum events is not doing any good for Paddy. Plus he's a goof ball many pros find annoying. I would really be surprised if Paddy ever gets the nod.

Check out Piercys 10th hole on pgatour.com.... Can happen to most of us... In fact it happens to me - always....

A goof ball for having a different opinion on how to do things :o Well I suppose we live in a world where we are suppose to conform, right?

Woods reportedly not playing Honda.
Probably signing up for Puerto Rico then?

Good round from St.Padraig today, can he follow it up?

EDIT: Silly article about US Ryder Cup Captaincy - Azinger is telling everyone he turned it down? But not Padraig apparently.

PS: Doesn't Riviera look fabulous??!!

Looks like a proper golf course. You would not get bored playing that every week!

sirbenson wrote:

super_realist wrote:Don't think Harrington has much hope, there's going to be a plethora of guys coming in after Clarke, Harrington hasn't distinguished himself enough to be in the running in my opinion.

As a player? He surely has or do you mean captaincy wise?

As a Ryder Cup player SirB, He's been pretty ordinary, although if he was American, he'd be one of the best players of the last decade ironically.

When you think the likes of Westwood, Poulter, Garcia, Jiminez etc are likely to be Captains in future years I can't really see Harrington getting a look in.