OWGR Week 48

Final OWGR ratings for this week are:

32 - Australian Open (Aus. Open gets 32 minimum as a flagship event, but would have made the rating on it's own merits)
22 - Alfred Dunhill Championship (2 above Sunshine/Euro minimum)
20 - Casio World Open (4 above Japan Tour minimum).
14 - Indonesia Open (Asian Tour minimum)
6 - Blackberry (LatinoAmerica minimum)

PROJECTIONS:  Here are a few "best case" scenarios for select contenders in various events this week. (Current OWGR rank)

Australian Open
* Adam Scott (2) - Win or lose, remains #2, but with a win would break the 10.0 average point barrier (10.44) and pull to within 1.45 points in the average of #1 (or about 60 undepreciated ranking points)
* Rory McIlroy (6) - Needs approx an 18th place finish to stay ahead of Kuchar for #6. A win is not enough to move up to #5.

Alfred Dunhill
* Charl Schwartzel (21) - Could move as high as #18 with a win
* Soren Hansen (618) - Can move as high as #229 with a win (a win gains entry into the NedBank)
* Ross Fisher (80) - Can move as high as #59 with a win (a win gains entry into the NedBank)
* Richard Finch (441) -  Can move as high as #183 with a win
* Victor Riu (388) -  Can move as high as #172 with a win
* Romain Wattel (213) -  Can move as high as #114 with a win

Casio World Open
* Hideki Matsuyama (25) - Could pass Westwood for #23 with a win
* Koumei Oda (83) - Could move as high as #60 with a win (another win next week get's him right around the #50 benchmark)
* Yuta Ikeda (150) - Could move as high as #103 with a win

Indonesia Open
* Thongchai Jaidee (48) - Could move as high as #43 with a win (just past Streelman who had to WD from Aus Open with the eye issue)
* Thaworn Wiratchant (144) - Could move as high as #114

 robo,
One player who could achieve significant upward mobility is de Jonge, especially as he (and Uihlein) are in the Nedbank field next week, money for nothing, points for free, etc.

A decent finish tomorrow and something competitive in Sun City and de Jonge will start to validate the Sagarin opinion!

I'd say Luiten will make top 50 by new year's eve. I am guessing he is going to need a top 10 at nedbank

kwinigolfer wrote: robo,
One player who could achieve significant upward mobility is de Jonge, especially as he (and Uihlein) are in the Nedbank field next week, money for nothing, points for free, etc.

A decent finish tomorrow and something competitive in Sun City and de Jonge will start to validate the Sagarin opinion!

As we discussed last week... the MONEY deal with the NedBank and the way it could skew the R2D standings is WHACK... when last place is = to about 1/3 of what a guy needs to "make his bones" for next year's card something's crazy...  

But the OWGR points... not so much.  Points go down so fast on the OWGR scale... for instance... Uihlein would probably need around 22 points or a two-way T2 or better at the NedBank to reach top-50....  De Jonge needs about the same points... so Let's say moves up and finishes solo 5th this week, then he would still need roughly a 4th place finish at the NedBank as well.    Those are pretty stout finishes needed for each of them... so nothing "free" OWGR wise about either one of those scenario's methinks...

themightyone wrote:I'd say Luiten will make top 50 by new year's eve. I am guessing he is going to need a top 10 at nedbank

Might not need even need that much... a middle of the pack (14th-16th range) or better finish at the NedBank probably get's Luiten into, and keeps him into the top-50 by year's end...  anything less... and he might get there, but might not be able to hold it through years end.

robo,
True that, but the Top 64 (or 65) still has its rewards - one step at a time.

Wow... what a finish in Australia.  Feel bad for Adam, but way to go Rory... Awesome tournament.  

OWGR top-10 will not change for this week (EDIT: Correction: Jason Day replaces Jason Dufner at #10)...  With his 2nd place Adam Scott pulls to about 1.76 points in the average behind #1 Tiger Woods (about 73 undepreciated points).   Rory gain's ground on #5, but remains at #6.

This is what the top-10 will look like.

1 - (1) - 11.8908 - Tiger Woods
2 - (2) - 10.1303 - Adam Scott
3 - (3) - 8.8521 - Henrik Stenson
4 - (4) - 7.5702 - Phil Mickelson
5 - (5) - 7.5011 - Justin Rose
6 - (6) - 6.8585 - Rory McIlroy
7 - (7) - 6.2686 - Matt Kuchar
8 - (8) - 6.0325 - Steve Stricker
9 - (9) - 5.6282 - Brandt Snedeker
10-(11)- 5.4127 - Jason Day
- - - -
11-(10)- 5.2838 - Jason Dufner

More to come tomorrow morning after the Alfred Dunhill concludes....  Schwartzel has a chance to move up to #17 with a win....  And Matsuyama (2-shots back through 11 holes) could move to #23 with a win.

Great job pube head   back in the winners enclosure, hopefully its the beginning of another hot streak for him.

And King Charl gets one over the line also.
Happy to see Dyson and Fish up there also.
And not so good for Sagarin, with de Jonge floundering.

Sagarin Rankings are much more volatile than OWGR Rankings.

de Jonge has been falling, his Sagarin and OWGR ranking is much closer than it was earlier in the summer.

Surprising to me is that Westwood is has been pretty constant in Sagarin rankings, despite his falling OWGR rank.  Westy is still ranked 13th and I don't think his ranking has changed much all year.

I try to look for disparity in rankings when choosing fantasy players.  It clued me into Chris Kirk for the McGladreys. 

Probably the most surprising player in the Sagarin Ranking is Brendon Todd at #25.  (OWGR rank #187)

Some other unexpected players in the Sagarin Top 50. (Compared to OWGR Ranking)

KJ Choi  #38 (OWGR 126)
Bob Estes #41 (170)
Ben Martin $47 (156)
Matt Jones #48 (102)
John Peterson #50 (150)

Final top-100 OWGR for week 48... (LatinoAmerica event can not affect top-100)

Notes:

AUSTRALIAN OPEN (Australasian/OneAsia)
* Rory McIlroy wins but remains #5
* Adam Scott finishes 2nd  to remain #2 but pulls to within 1.76 points of #1 (abt 73 raw ranking points)
* Jason Day finishes T6 and replaces Jason Dufner at #10
* Matthew Jones moves into top-100 at #91
* Larrazabal and Stallings fall out of top-100

ALFRED DUNHILL (Euro/Sunshine)
* Charl Schwartzel wins Alfred Dunhill to move to #18.
* Brandon Grace moves to #50 displacing Richard Sterne to #51

CASIO WORLD (Japan)
* Hideki Matsuyama wins  to move to #23
* Park Sung-Joon finishes T4 to move into top-100 at #97

INDONESIAN OPEN (Asia)
* Gaganjeet Bhullar wins to move to #157


1 - (1) - 11.8908 - Tiger Woods
2 - (2) - 10.1303 - Adam Scott
3 - (3) - 8.8521 - Henrik Stenson
4 - (4) - 7.5702 - Phil Mickelson
5 - (5) - 7.5011 - Justin Rose
6 - (6) - 6.8585 - Rory McIlroy
7 - (7) - 6.2686 - Matt Kuchar
8 - (8) - 6.0325 - Steve Stricker
9 - (9) - 5.6282 - Brandt Snedeker
10 - (11) - 5.4127 - Jason Day
11 - (10) - 5.2838 - Jason Dufner
12 - (12) - 5.2013 - Graeme McDowell
13 - (13) - 5.1765 - Ian Poulter
14 - (14) - 5.1423 - Dustin Johnson
15 - (15) - 4.9053 - Luke Donald
16 - (16) - 4.8957 - Zach Johnson
17 - (17) - 4.7351 - Jim Furyk
18 - (21) - 4.7318 - Charl Schwartzel
19 - (18) - 4.5989 - Keegan Bradley
20 - (19) - 4.3881 - Sergio Garcia
21 - (20) - 4.3715 - Webb Simpson
22 - (22) - 4.2331 - Jordan Spieth
23 - (25) - 4.1021 - Hideki Matsuyama
24 - (23) - 3.9545 - Lee Westwood
25 - (24) - 3.8012 - Ernie Els
26 - (28) - 3.5040 - Bubba Watson
27 - (26) - 3.5004 - Nick Watney
28 - (27) - 3.4816 - Bill Haas
29 - (30) - 3.3681 - Jamie Donaldson
30 - (29) - 3.3655 - Hunter Mahan
31 - (31) - 3.3346 - Victor Dubuisson
32 - (33) - 3.2331 - Ryan Moore
33 - (32) - 3.2196 - Louis Oosthuizen
34 - (34) - 3.0237 - Thomas Bjorn
35 - (35) - 3.0096 - Graham Delaet
36 - (36) - 2.9833 - Gonzalo Fdez-Castano
37 - (37) - 2.8733 - Francesco Molinari
38 - (38) - 2.8117 - Martin Kaymer
39 - (39) - 2.7853 - Jonas Blixt
40 - (40) - 2.7707 - Billy Horschel
41 - (42) - 2.7680 - Rickie Fowler
42 - (41) - 2.7392 - Matteo Manassero
43 - (43) - 2.7046 - Kevin Streelman
44 - (44) - 2.6764 - David Lynn
45 - (45) - 2.6080 - Jimmy Walker
46 - (46) - 2.5560 - Peter Hanson
47 - (48) - 2.4936 - Thongchai Jaidee
48 - (47) - 2.4634 - Miguel A Jimenez
49 - (50) - 2.4340 - Scott Piercy
50 - (51) - 2.4027 - Branden Grace
- - - -
51 - (49) - 2.3965 - Richard Sterne
52 - (55) - 2.3956 - Joost Luiten
53 - (52) - 2.3950 - Bernd Wiesberger
54 - (54) - 2.3899 - Boo Weekley
55 - (56) - 2.3768 - Harris English
56 - (53) - 2.3708 - Bo Van Pelt
57 - (57) - 2.2625 - Gary Woodland
58 - (58) - 2.2153 - Thorbjorn Olesen
59 - (59) - 2.1721 - Chris Kirk
60 - (60) - 2.1112 - Kiradech Aphibarnrat
61 - (61) - 2.1013 - Angel Cabrera
62 - (65) - 2.0916 - Kim Hyung-sung
63 - (62) - 2.0889 - Stephen Gallacher
64 - (63) - 2.0697 - D.A. Points
65 - (66) - 2.0325 - Brendon de Jonge
66 - (64) - 2.0296 - Nicolas Colsaerts
67 - (67) - 2.0069 - Peter Uihlein
68 - (68) - 1.9629 - Tim Clark
69 - (69) - 1.9580 - Marc Leishman
70 - (70) - 1.9331 - Roberto Castro
71 - (80) - 1.9172 - Ross Fisher
72 - (83) - 1.9010 - Koumei Oda
73 - (74) - 1.8912 - Patrick Reed
74 - (72) - 1.8902 - Chris Wood
75 - (71) - 1.8817 - Michael Thompson
76 - (73) - 1.8752 - Robert Garrigus
77 - (75) - 1.8423 - Shane Lowry
78 - (76) - 1.8362 - Charles Howell-III
79 - (77) - 1.7957 - Luke Guthrie
80 - (78) - 1.7946 - Brett Rumford
81 - (79) - 1.7917 - Chris Stroud
82 - (81) - 1.7502 - Martin Laird
83 - (82) - 1.7422 - Mikko Ilonen
84 - (86) - 1.7376 - Shingo Katayama
85 - (84) - 1.7205 - Marcel Siem
86 - (85) - 1.6951 - Russell Henley
87 - (87) - 1.6820 - Fredrik Jacobson
88 - (88) - 1.6796 - Ryo Ishikawa
89 - (89) - 1.6764 - John Merrick
90 - (90) - 1.6673 - George Coetzee
91 - (102) - 1.6638 - Matthew Jones
92 - (91) - 1.6552 - Carl Pettersson
93 - (92) - 1.6540 - Alexander Noren
94 - (93) - 1.6517 - Brooks Koepka
95 - (96) - 1.6298 - David Howell
96 - (95) - 1.6277 - John Huh
97 - (110) - 1.6259 - Park Sung-Joon
98 - (97) - 1.6204 - Paul Casey
99 - (98) - 1.6134 - Charley Hoffman
100 - (94) - 1.6089 - Paul Lawrie
- - - -
101 - (98) - 1.6058 - Pablo Larrazabal
102 - (100) - 1.5843 - Scott Stallings
103 - (101) - 1.5772 - Marcus Fraser
104 - (103) - 1.5712 - Gregory Bourdy
105 - (104) - 1.5669 - Ken Duke
106 - (106) - 1.5566 - Chesson Hadley
107 - (105) - 1.5534 - Kevin Chappell
108 - (107) - 1.5424 - Liang Wen-chong
109 - (109) - 1.5283 - Kevin Stadler
110 - (108) - 1.5220 - David Toms

Just 0.12 avg pts separating #47 and #56 and only 0.03 points separated #50 and #56.

Someone is going to get barely notched out of a Masters invite.  But it is not going to be Boo Weekley and Harris English who already have that invite secure.  Not sure if any of the other bubble boys got that invite.

Last year Ogilvy was barely outside the top 50.

Every putt counts!

GPB wrote:Just 0.12 avg pts separating #47 and #56 and only 0.03 points separated #50 and #56.

Someone is going to get barely notched out of a Masters invite.  But it is not going to be Boo Weekley and Harris English who already have that invite secure.  Not sure if any of the other bubble boys got that invite.

Last year Ogilvy was barely outside the top 50.

Every putt counts!

Near as I can tell... here's #40-70...  Those in bold are already qualified for the Masters... the *** is if they are playing next week (NedBank, Hong Kong, JT Cup)... or **** if they are playing the next week (Nelson Mandela, Thailand)

40 - (40) - 2.7707 - Billy Horschel (USA)
41 - (42) - 2.7680 - Rickie Fowler (USA) ****Thailand Asian Tour
42 - (41) - 2.7392 - Matteo Manassero (ITA) ***NedBank
43 - (43) - 2.7046 - Kevin Streelman (USA) ***NedBank
44 - (44) - 2.6764 - David Lynn (ENG) ***NedBank
45 - (45) - 2.6080 - Jimmy Walker (USA)
46 - (46) - 2.5560 - Peter Hanson (SWE)
47 - (48) - 2.4936 - Thongchai Jaidee (THA) ***NedBank ****Thailand Asia Tour
48 - (47) - 2.4634 - Miguel A Jimenez (ESP) ***Hong Kong
49 - (50) - 2.4340 - Scott Piercy (USA)
50 - (51) - 2.4027 - Branden Grace (RSA) ***NedBank ****Nelson Mandela
- - - -
51 - (49) - 2.3965 - Richard Sterne (RSA) ***NedBank
52 - (55) - 2.3956 - Joost Luiten (NED) ***NedBank
53 - (52) - 2.3950 - Bernd Wiesberger (AUT) ****Thailand Asian Tour
54 - (54) - 2.3899 - Boo Weekley (USA)
55 - (56) - 2.3768 - Harris English (USA)
56 - (53) - 2.3708 - Bo Van Pelt (USA)
57 - (57) - 2.2625 - Gary Woodland (USA) ***NedBank
58 - (58) - 2.2153 - Thorbjorn Olesen (DEN) ***Hong Kong ****Thailand Asian Tour
59 - (59) - 2.1721 - Chris Kirk (USA)
60 - (60) - 2.1112 - Kiradech Aphibarnrat (THA) ***JT Cup Japan ****Thailand Asian Tour
61 - (61) - 2.1013 - Angel Cabrera (ARG)
62 - (65) - 2.0916 - Kim Hyung-sung (KOR) ***JT Cup Japan
63 - (62) - 2.0889 - Stephen Gallacher (SCO)
64 - (63) - 2.0697 - D.A. Points (USA) ***NedBank ****Thailand Asian Tour
65 - (66) - 2.0325 - Brendon de Jonge (ZIM) ***NedBank
66 - (64) - 2.0296 - Nicolas Colsaerts (BEL)
67 - (67) - 2.0069 - Peter Uihlein (USA) ***NedBank
68 - (68) - 1.9629 - Tim Clark (RSA)
69 - (69) - 1.9580 - Marc Leishman (AUS)
70 - (70) - 1.9331 - Roberto Castro (USA)

Note: The next highest players not listed above who show to be playing next week are  3 Japan Tour players currently rated in the 80's playing in the Japan JT Cup (#82 Koumei Oda, #85 Shingo Katayama and #88 Ryo Ishikawa). But even using a higher than expected field rating of 20... none can crack the top-50 even with a win.  And just guessing... Ryo's passes to the Masters have expired. ALSO #121 Morten Madsen (in the NedBank).  A win for Madsen would put him just outside the top-50... and with higher attrition of others by year's end, it is possible he could sneak into the top-50 (I'll know better on that one after next week should he win).

Also: It appears as though Thailand Golf Championship in two weeks is putting together a crazy good field... at least compared to what we might expect.  Henrik Stenson, Justin Rose, Sergio Garcia, Charl Schwartzel, Bubba Watson, Hunter Mahan, Rickie Fowler, Bernd Weisberger, Thorbjorn Olesen, D.A. Points, Ryo Ishikawa, Thongchai Jaidee, Brooks Koepka and Kiradech Aphibarnrat are all listed as committed.  Just looking at those players alone... and figuring 65 home points... Thailand is worth 38 points as it stands... so might be worth up to 40-42 in the end...

Doesn't look like Piercy has got a snowball's chance of staying in the top 50.  

How is Kim Hyung Sung already qualified for the Masters?

GPB wrote: 
How is Kim Hyung Sung already qualified for the Masters?

Maybe they thought it was Ishikawa....

GPB wrote:Doesn't look like Piercy has got a snowball's chance of staying in the top 50.  

How is Kim Hyung Sung already qualified for the Masters?

Kim Hyung Sung = OOPS... put the bold end tag in the wrong place... fixed.

As for Piercy... yeah hard to like his chances... Not sure why either he or Van Pelt decided not to give it a full go, being as close as they were to securing top-50. At least Piercy played 4 in the fall (but one was a WD) but Van Pelt only two.

Barring a late WD... field strengths for this week are set at 48 for the NedBank and 46 for the World Challenge.  

I haven't heard the status of Streelman's eye situation, but should he not be able to go and be replaced in the NedBank, it wouldn't affect the field strength one way or the other regardless of who would replace him.  (unless Adam Scott suddenly made himself available... which AIN'T happening)

The World Challenge field could handle a WD of most any player except Tiger assuming the replacement is OWGR top-50... it would remain a 46 level.

About 6 points then, in the NWML Challenge, for someone coming 10th and in the bottom half of the field (of which half never won a PGA Tour event in the 2013 season).
Most tournaments, that's called "missed cut".
Not much better for the Nedders but at least the field is bigger.



Glad to see Snedeker's expecting to be good-to-go for the Tournament Of Champions; it'll be interesting to see who turns up at Kapalua - we know the Independent Contractor will be contracting elsewhere. And certain to be no Phil. Wonder about Justin Rose, Scott, McDowell, Stenson etc?

Kwini

Would you afford these events more credibility if the same proportion of the field as in regular PGAT events were awarded OWGR points. ie about top 10 get OWGR points, awarded in the same manner is if it were a full field. So you don't get any more than a complimentary position in a regular event and the rest of the points are just discarded.

Mac,
I don't care what they make in cash dollars, it's just that they're supposed to be playing for a common currency, owgr points, and there's almost no chance of them not profitting from being in a very limited field.

If the norm is a 144-player field and top 70 and ties get rewarded then, and this applies to one or two other (European Tour MatchPlay for one) events also, then no problem with rewarding the top nine at the MWML event, but not thereafter - then they get penalised for playing poorly, which is what happens to Joe Journeyman.

So when it comes to calculating field strength do you think the equation needs a parameter for number of players?

Or are 46 points the same regardless of how many players it took to accumulate them?

I just don't like rewarding players for failure in the same currency as others are expected to be earning by more equitable means.

As cash money is no longer the criteria, golfers are essentially playing for owgr points or, on the PGA Tour at least, FedEx pts.

If you have to reward boondoggles by such means, then reward the winner and runners up, but send the rest of 'em down the road.
Look at these events - if golfers are not in the shake-up they basically don't care, so why reward them as if it's anything but an exhibition, because it's not.

I understand that you think some players who play poorly will get more owgr points than they would have got playing to that level in other events. But the same could be said for someone getting OWGR points further down the field in many other weeks. It is just not such an obvious example.

The question I asked is what you think about small fields generating large OWGR ratings for events? Does it matter how many players it takes to reach 46 points?


If anything does this not highlight how little value lower ranked players are given when calculating field strength.

It really comes down to what the EVR (or whatever it is called) measures. It is possible that it is perfectly fair to award points to the player finishing far down a limited field event.

At the moment field strength is based on one number and says if you win you have beaten a group of players with an accumulative strength of X. This will always be true for the winner but to how far down the field can you ever stretch this idea?

if the world number one, played in a one man field every week. (or played on the europro tour or something like that). how many OWGR points would he generate by winning every week?
in theory could you maintain your number one field by winning exhibitions against duds (as long as they are official events)?

hend0,
That's pretty much what Greg Norman was accused of doing a few decades ago!

kwinigolfer wrote:I just don't like rewarding players for failure in the same currency as others are expected to be earning by more equitable means.

I guess some see the glass half empty while others see it half full.

First... I absolutely agree that the official-ness of the NedBank last place money (about 1/3rd of what a player needs to keep his card for the year) is totally out of whack... but not so much with OWGR points...

While I would opine smaller field events get too many OWGR points (I think the OWGR points should go down in percentage steps for any event below 60 players)... I disagree awarding points through the entire field in these events "reward players for failure".  In fact I believe they do exactly the opposite... they reward players for the accomplishment of being able to qualify in the first place.

Has Simon Dyson's case been heard by the Tour yet?

does anyone have any info on the "previous" that he has?

Pretty sloppy research from Doug Ferguson in his Tuesday article

Doug Ferguson wrote:Joost Luiten better hope his decision to hit one shot at the BMW Masters doesn't keep him out of that other ''Masters.''


This is the last big week of tournaments around the world as players try to finish inside the top 50 to earn an invitation to Augusta National in April. Luiten is at No. 52 going into the Nedbank Challenge, but here's where it gets interesting.

Luiten had a sore shoulder in Shanghai. He had to play two of three ''Final Series'' events on the European Tour to be eligible for the finale in Dubai. So he chose to hit one shot off the first tee at Lake Malaren in the BMW Masters and withdraw. He rested his shoulder for two weeks, played Turkey and then tied for fourth in Dubai.

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/big-week-golf-3-continents-155919563--golf.html

If Luiten had not hit that one TEE shot in the BMW Masters, he would not had been able to play in the DP World Championship in Dubai.  

Luiten finished 4th in that tournament and earned 16.20 ranking points.  He would be about 60th in the OWGR.

Agree GPB,
Had Luiten finished last in Dubai, Doug might have had a point though. But purely speculative and academic article.

With the free owgr points available at the Nedbank, Luiten just needs to finish ahead of Sterne and Grace, or probably just finish around the top 12-15 (of 30), to move into the owgr top 50.

I think DF included a note to the effect that Luiten HAD to take that one shot in China.
A bit ambiguous maybe, but it's definitely in there.

Luke Donald... sheesh. Nice defense of his title in the Dunlop last week... and a good start this week in the NedBank. Wonder what got his game turned around.

Robopz:

I noticed that the Hong Kong Open had a 144 player field and Hong Kong's latitude is further North than Mayakorba.

Turns out I was wrong about the Field Strength for the NedBank... they use SUNSHINE Tour home points instead of Euro Tour... so the NedBank falls to a 46 (from the 48 I had projected (actual is 248+15=263).

The NW Mutual World Challenge doesn't get home points so it is a 46 (279+0=279)

Others are:

18 = Japan Golf Nippon
20 = Hong Kong (Asian/ET)
08 = 108 Visa Open de Argentina (LatinoAmerica)

GPB wrote:Robopz:

I noticed that the Hong Kong Open had a 144 player field and Hong Kong's latitude is further North than Mayakorba.

I've got it at 138 players... half way in between a "fall series" and a full event of 144.

I hope some of the Nedbankers are texting you, robo.

Lots to do by the likes of Grace and Sterne, Luiten and Points etc.
And de Jonge and Uihlein would help themselves with good final rounds also.
Kiradech off the pace in Japan.

robopz wrote:

GPB wrote:Robopz:

I noticed that the Hong Kong Open had a 144 player field and Hong Kong's latitude is further North than Mayakorba.

I've got it at 138 players...  half way in between a "fall series" and a full event of 144.

Early wave had 72 players, I just assumed it was the same in the late wave.