Andy Murray.. on a path to greatness?

First topic message reminder :

In the last 12 months, Andy Murray has done something most of us would not have thought possible (even us Murray fans).

He has become a multi slam winner with a shinny gold olympics medal too.

Wow

On top of that he has reached every major final in the last 12 months (except the French where he was injured) and moved himself to number 2 in the world

With all the negative comments that follow him around, I really just wanted to give him a shout out to say well done for the last 12(ish) months

3 Slam finals in a row
2 Slam wims
One Olympic Gold
Number 2 in the world

Impressive in anyones book

Now, does this mean he is destined to be a all time great? - not yet imo - but if he can keep going like he is, and gets to 5 or 6 slams, he truly will be one of the greats of tennis (not up there with Nadal or Federer, but still a great)

So well done Andy Murray and I keep my fingers crossed you can keep going

bogbrush wrote:For Gods sake don't use the 2nd class service, it's absurdly slow.

 In the absence of a hat being tipped in respect, I'll have to make do with this emoticon:

Laver fan - I'm the last person that wants to upset anyone or cause wars or make life more difficult for admins or mods.

I was not upset my the previous posts and it was not my intention to upset anyone with mine, and I'm surprised that it did.

However it did, so therefore my apologies to BB.

Danny_1982 wrote:Laver fan - I'm the last person that wants to upset anyone or cause wars or make life more difficult for admins or mods.

Don't listen to him Laverfan, he's a dangerous maverick.

I've even heard him brazenly admit to supporting Villa.

HM Murdoch wrote:

Danny_1982 wrote:Laver fan - I'm the last person that wants to upset anyone or cause wars or make life more difficult for admins or mods.

Don't listen to him Laverfan, he's a dangerous maverick.

I've even heard him brazenly admit to supporting Villa.

I wish supporting Villa could be associated to danger Murdoch! Danger of death by boredom maybe....

Danny_1982 wrote:Laver fan - I'm the last person that wants to upset anyone or cause wars or make life more difficult for admins or mods.

I was not upset my the previous posts and it was not my intention to upset anyone with mine, and I'm surprised that it did.

However it did, so therefore my apologies to BB.

I am not singling you out, dangerous maverick and Villa supporter or not.

I understand CC's frustration on his favourite player being under the microscope. Hopefully calm, good sense and civility will prevail.

This wonderful sport of ours provides us so many opportunities to enjoy it, which we should avail.

Laver - it is a bit bizarre that Murray seems to be under even more attack than ever, but I personally don't really mind and it doesn't detract from my enjoyment of a couple of weeks ago.  

As for this dangerous maverick tag, I think I need to correct you all before it gets out of hand... I'm not a dangerous maverick, I'm a REALLY dangerous maverick and you'd all better watch out!

Please stop spreading the word that I'm a Villa fan though. I'm a bit ashamed of that.

This is a book that Danny co-wrote.

In blood.

HM Murdoch wrote:This is a book that Danny co-wrote.

In blood.

That's me, in the middle. Don't mess guys, this is the proof that I'm dangerous!

What is 'Aston Villa'?

Danny_1982 wrote:

HM Murdoch wrote:This is a book that Danny co-wrote.

In blood.

That's me, in the middle. Don't mess guys, this is the proof that I'm dangerous!

Right........

Hey friend, I got your post mixed up with someone else's. I loved your post!  

How on earth did bottom licking come into this?

Though I would imagine Andy's bum smiles more than his face!

bradman99.94 wrote:What is 'Aston Villa'?

A method of depressing people in the Midlands.

bogbrush wrote:

Danny_1982 wrote:

HM Murdoch wrote:This is a book that Danny co-wrote.

In blood.

That's me, in the middle. Don't mess guys, this is the proof that I'm dangerous!

Right........

Hey friend, I got your post mixed up with someone else's. I loved your post!  

legendkillarV2 wrote:How on earth did bottom licking come into this?

Though I would imagine Andy's bum smiles more than his face!

Not bottom, backside.

When Craig mentioned the Royal Mail issuing a Murray stamp I innocently observed the opportunity it presented for some to lick his backside.

HM Murdoch wrote:

bradman99.94 wrote:What is 'Aston Villa'?

A method of depressing people in the Midlands.

I've read yours and BB's posts while in a meeting. People probably wondering
A- why I'm smiling
B- why I'm messing with my phone!

But they'd better not say anything, or they'll stir the anger.... 

bogbrush wrote:

Riskysports wrote:

bogbrush wrote:Gives people a chance to lick his backside literally.  

Some people WILL like that.

But will the stamps work in England? Or will they make your letter go to anywhere but England  

They get there, it'll just take a very long time, result in numerous misdeliveries and stress you out.

For Gods sake don't use the 2nd class service, it's absurdly slow.

I just had to say    for both comments BB - you light up this forum  

For those sensitive souls that think enjoying a bit of quick repartee is at the expense of Murray, let this TMF fan direct you to: (google) pseudo fed blog - you may enjoy the post Olympic blog.  Never say I don't share

As for the in teasing - well it was very funny and seized the feed beautifully  

@Danny... have you considered a film career. Djimon Hounsou or Don Cheadle or To Sir, With Love Sidney P, or Star Trek T'uvok, or maybe the voice of Simba's Father (James Earl Jones).

Aston Villa is where Martin lives...

Why, thanks you tp, you ain't so bad yourself!

I tries me bestest.

laverfan wrote:@Danny... have you considered a film career.

No... Not since my B in GCSE drama, which was a lifetime ago...

dummy_half wrote:

Danny_1982 wrote:

Riskysports wrote:I think the whole debate on WTF and O is done and really moves away from the orginal point of my article :-)

Back on topic, the next 2-3 years will obviously define Murray's standing in the game overall. Right now he's as good as anyone (or close to at least) but will need a few more slams at least if he wants to be talked about as one of the greats.

Is it possible for him to win 4-6 slams over the next 3 years? Difficult but possible. Over the last 12 months he's won 2 so if he keeps that form up he'll do alright.

If I had to guess on his final count right now I'd go for 4, maybe 5. That's because you have to assume that at the age of 29 he probably won't be quite as good an athlete, same as Novak. Question is will there be any good enough players coming through to expose that slight dip?

I suspect the younger players like Tomic, Dimitrov, JJ and the like may have a similar evolution to Murray, and come into potential slam winning peak in their mid 20's.

This is the interesting question - my suspicion is that these guys are not as good and not as driven as Murray (+ Djoko and Rafa). Looking at career progression, Andy and Djoko were top 10 while still teenagers and winning MS events at 20, reaching their first slam finals at 21 and 20 respsctively. OK, it took another few years for Andy to make the final step up to GS champion, but he was getting results consistent with being absolutely world class 6 or 7 years ago (only Nadal had a better record against Federer at and near his peak). I just don't see this group of 22-24 year old players (other than del Potro) as being of that pedigree. It's not just that these guys aren't regularly challenging Murray and  Djoko, but that they aren't even getting many wins against the lower half of the top 10, which is dominated by players between about 26 and 30*.

Of course they may be some real talent in the 17 and 18 year olds coming through, which could develop rapidly into threats to the top players in 2 or 3 years time if they follow the same developement route as Djoko and Andy.

* I accept that playing style and conditions has had some influence as well in making the game harder for really young players to break through, but it hasn't changed all that much since 2006-7 when Andy and Djoko surged up the rankings. I still think an outstanding 21 year old would emerge from the field to challenge the elite, but just that there hasn't been one since Del Potro.

Hyeon Chung, Gianluigi Quinzi (both boys finalists SW19) Jan-Lennard Struff, Denis Kudla, just some of the under 20's that could make a breakthrough if they manage to leap the hurdle into the top 20 in 2/3 yrs time. Some of the boys coming through are impressionable enough to see what Andy has managed to do with hard work and a stubborn will to get better. Jerzy Janowicz an obvious talent if he can curb his volatility.
We have some young hopefuls ourselves, Liam Broady is in transition right now, but he has potential in my eyes to make it big time, and of course Kyle Edmund who seems promising (managed to take eight games in his Jerky match).
But apart from the Pole, there aren't many that have the maturity to challenge Murray for the next 4 yrs at least.

Good posts dummy and Jubba.

Thing is, when Andy Novak and Rafa reach 29-30... If the younger guys i mentioned aren't winning slams, who will be? It's only 3-4 years away. I see 2 possibilities. Either still Novak Andy and Rafa, or the ones I mentioned earlier.

There may be some good kids in the juniors, but to progress from that to a slam winner in 3 years is tough. Just look at how many players under 20 that are in the top 100 now. I believe the number is zero!

Yes that could be because the generation coming through isnt great, but just as likely that the game is so athletic nowadays that you aren't physically strong enough to challenge for a slam until you get to 24-25.

I'd love Murray to still be winning slams at 30+ but I'd worry about the state of the next generation of tennis players if that were the case. Unless of course he's really lucky in terms of his genetics and doesn't physically deteriorate that much.

Danny

Even looking at relatively recent history, it only took Djokovic and Del Potro about 3 years from leaving the juniors to being slam winners, and Andy was a slam finalist and MS1000 event winner within a similar time scale. Obvioulsy, Rafa was something of a freak in being so physically developed at 17/18, and it took Roger a little longer to reach the top of the game but it was obvious from him beating Sampras while still a teenager that he was going to be a top class player.

I honestlly don't think the game has become that much more physically demanding over the last 5 or 6 years that a super talented 20 year old would fail to reach the top 20 or so - as I said earlier, it isn't that the (relatively) yougnsters are only failing to beat the super fit top 4, but are also not getting results against much of the top 10 where the key is to cope with the power rather than the stamina and consistency.

All the 22-24 year olds who we've looked to make a breakthrough have some ability but have flaws in their game - Dimitrov has all the shots but needs to improve his fitness adn movement, Tomic needs a brain transplant, JJ needs a returning game and Nishikori needs to grow 15cm and gain 10 kg.

I think what is likely to happen in 3 or 4 years is a bit like what happened between Sampras's domination and Federer's - there will be a spell where slams are quite open and we'll see a mix of winners including whichever of the aging top 4 can stay healthy plus Del Potro on the occasions his body holds together and a few one-off winners in the (currently) younger players, until someone emerges as the next dominant player. I suspect this next Great is not yet a familiar name on the ATP circuit.

I think there was a bunch of players below Fed that became so mentally affected by his dominations, that they were never truly believed and that made it easier for Novak and Juan to get their surprise wins

Significantly, they didn't go on to dominate

My point is, that I think with the Top 4 around plus the consistency of the likes of Berdych currently, I'd expect someone to be winning slams 5 years after their juniors, i.e. 22/23

And actually the physicality thing is significant - often teenagers bodies are still developing into their late teens, it will then surely take another two or three years until they learn what their true strengths are.

Yes, this has always been the same, but the difference is that players in their mid-20's can now improve, due to the improved knowledge of biomechanics, rather than decline

All this means that the next new slam winner will be from the current 'new' batch of players (Dimi, etc)

In terms of how long it takes players to grow from quality juniors to quality seniors, it's interesting to look at junior slam winners.

Tomic and Dimi are two players that have some raw ability but everyone agrees still need to improve (physically, technically or tactically) in a number of areas. Those two were junior slam winners in 2008 & 2009. Four and five years ago.

It's taken them four years to progress from quality juniors to in and around the top 30. Now of course that might be the ceiling of their abilities, or it might take better junior players a shorter amount of time to come through.... But it does also indicate that the gap between being a good junior and good senior is tougher to bridge, and takes longer to achieve.

All this means is that Murray can dominate grass for the next 4 or 5 years if JJ can't understand that hitting the ball hardest and looking like a murderer does not win matches at the top.

Murray may well have a fantastic run on the USO as well if Djokovic can not get back to his confident self. Nadal is lurking but until we see him perform in the HC season, the jury is out, and of course Federer is trying hard to get some fitness and confidence too in the run up to the (pointless and run of the mill) 2016 games.

I have seen on a rather scrappy map that the Tennis Centre in Rio has clay practice courts, and since I can't find any reference to what the surface is there, the presumption of clay seems correct. Its ain't going to anything else is it really ?

So how well can Federer do there I wonder ? Murray will have a torrid time if his back plays up like it did this year on the red stuff and Djokovic is no fan of the brick dust either.

It may be Del Boys year for Gold as Nadal may have retired by then, hopefully not though.