OWGR - Week #13

There was no No. 1 drama this week, but there was plenty of drama around the top 50 cutline instead, as the Masters is approaching now very fast…

Great win for DA Points at the Shell Houston Open, no. 14 win out of 14 events for team USA this year on the PGA Tour. DA is making a comeback to the top 100, climbing all the way to #70 and as far as I’m aware this represents a career best. Fantastic effort by both Stenson and Horschel finishing T2nd. It is Stenson’s best PGA Tour result for longer than I can remember and coming at the perfect time to secure a Masters ticket for him (up to #42), while for Horschel, this is his best result, full stop (moving somewhere around #130 in the rankings). Good results also for Crane, Cauley and Tringale, and equating to an entry or re-entry inside the top 100 for each one of them.

Congratulations (and to some extent commiserations as well) to Marcel Siem for his well-deserved second career win in Morocco. What more can we add at this point, other than that he is climbing up (only) to #51 in the rankings and hopefully he would’ve learned his lesson and will do what’s necessary to stay at least in the top 60 for the forseable future, so that he could at least qualify for the US Open in June… A nice return to some good form and a good result for David Horsey, moving up to somewhere ~#270, while the other runner up and best ranked Finnish player, Mikko Ilonen, will move inside the top 200.

An Aussie win (at least one outside Oz) is a rare thing these days, so double congrats to Scott Hend for winning in Thailand against a pretty strong field and he will climb somewhere inside the top 180 as a result. And in the end Thongchai Jaidee will not accompany his fellow countryman T. Wiratchant to Augusta… And finally, well done to Ho Sung Choi of Korea, for winning the Indonesian PGA, an event once again co-sanctioned by the OneAsia and Japanese Tours. HS Choi will move up somewhere just inside #330s.

Otherwise, talking of Koreans, it’s bye-bye top 100 for KT Kim, which means that now Korea has only two players left inside the top 100, and none inside the top 80! It’s a far cry from what we use to have only about a year ago, when there were 4 of them inside the top 50. Too much Gangnam style and not enough decent golf results coming from there over the past year or so…

The OWGR table after week #13 should look as follows:

1 Tiger Woods
2 Rory McIlroy
3 Justin Rose
4 Luke Donald
5 Brandt Snedeker
6 Louis Oosthuizen
7 Adam Scott
8 Steve Stricker
9 Matt Kuchar
10 Phil Mickelson
----------------------------
11 Keegan Bradley
12 Ian Poulter
13 Lee Westwood
14 Bubba Watson
15 Charl Schwartzel
16 Sergio Garcia
17 Graeme McDowell
18 Jason Dufner
19 Dustin Johnson
20 Webb Simpson
21 Hunter Mahan
22 Peter Hanson
23 Nick Watney
24 Ernie Els
25 Bo Van Pelt
26 Jim Furyk
27 Zach Johnson
28 Gonzalo Fdez-C.
29 Rickie Fowler
30 Bill Haas
31 Martin Kaymer
32 Branden Grace
33 Jamie Donaldson
34 Paul Lawrie
35 Carl Pettersson
36 Francesco Molinari
37 Scott Piercy
38 Robert Garrigus
39 Jason Day
40 Thorbjorn Olesen
41 Nicolas Colsaerts
42 Henrik Stenson
43 George Coetzee
44 Ryan Moore
45 Michael Thompson
46 Matteo Manassero
47 Fredrik Jacobson
48 John Senden
49 Richard Sterne
50 Russell Henley
-----------------------------
51 Marcel Siem
52 Padraig Harrington
53 Hiroyuki Fujita
54 Charles Howell III
55 Geoff Ogilvy
56 Alexander Noren
57 David Lynn
58 Tim Clark
59 Thongchai Jaidee
60 Luke Guthrie
61 Chris Wood
62 Thomas Bjorn
63 Greg Chalmers
64 Marcus Fraser
65 Stephen Gallacher
66 Rafael Cabrerra-Bello
67 Jimmy Walker
68 Anders Hansen
69 Charlie Beljan
70 D.A. Points
71 Jaco Van Zyl
72 Shane Lowry
73 Brendan de Jonge
74 Chris Kirk
75 David Toms
76 Richie Ramsay
77 Bernd Wiesberger
78 Kevin Streelman
79 Scott Jamieson
80 John Merrick
81 Thaworn Wiratchant
82 Miguel A. Jimenez
83 K.J. Choi
84 Darren Fichardt
85 Kiradech Aphibarnrat
86 Bae Sang-Moon
87 Thomas Aiken
88 Mark Wilson
89 Gaganjeet Bhullar
90 Ben Crane
91 Danny Willett
92 Kristoffer Broberg
93 Brendan Jones
94 Kevin Na
95 John Huh
96 Bud Cauley
97 Aaron Baddeley
98 Josh Teater
99 Jonas Blixt
100 Cameron Tringale
-----------------------------
101 Kevin Stadler
102 Kyle Stanley
103 Graham DeLaet
...

pd,
How many of the US media do you think were following your prognostications?
Certainly noy NBC but Doug Fergy, and maybe even pgatour.com, and others seemed to be poaching your insight.

Hope they're as grateful as we are.

Pleased to see Billy Horschel overcome his leaderboard demons - he can be a top player, even if he is a bit of a pr1ck.

DF has been using pd's insight for months, albeit credited - it was thanks to one of his retweets that I found our "OWGR guru" on twitter, and I was only about follower number 20! Just had a scroll through the followers acquired since then, GFC, Lowry, Scott Piercy and the official Sky Sports golf account among them. You're moving in esteemed circles pd, and well deserved too!

T2 only moves Stenson from #53 to #42 in a moderately strong event.

Kaymer is starting to drop fast now

I'd imagine there'll be some no-shows from the original San Antonio line-up - Geoff Ogilvy one of the first following his year of under-performance.

But the owgr rating should certainly be up from last year . . . . . .

Thanks, kwini/Ned.

Indeed, the early count for Valero shows that it'll be way up compared to previous years, cartainly compared to the past 10 years.

- Valero TX @ 44/46 points (up from 24 points last year!)
- Panasonic India @ 14 points

Nothing else to get too excited about this pre-Masters week as the ET have wisely decided that they may as well close their shop until after the Masters...

Tiger will remain safely at #1 going into the Masters even if Rory collects all those 44-46 points in Texas...

I think I now follow you on twitter prince. Nice work.

Got to feel for Marcel Siem after getting so close to qualifying. I am sure the fact he won is more than enough consolation though.

Excellent stuff PD.

Anyone know how many made the Masters as a result of the OWGR Top 50 this time around??

Wish a golfer in the field next week had the ba**s to make a stand about Ishikawa's invite with Siem & others sitting at home.......................................

Also wish a journo had the ba##s to ask Billy Payne the question.............

Stensen, Freddie J, and Sterne all made the Masters field via the top 50 today.

Every points counts. Siem missed out on the Masters by 1.36 points.

Ogilvy missed the top at the end of the year by less than a point.

Cheers GPB

Is there a place up for grabs at the Texas open next week??

The Texas winner will get a spot at Augusta if they're not already qualified John

Ogilvy is out of the Texas Open, but if Siem comes in, as he 'siems' to suggest on his website, then owgr count shouldn't suffer just yet. Pretty sure there may be some other WDs though, I hope Stenson will still play after last week...
robo hopeflly will be able to send some insight on the ins and outs...

Chrs Ned,

Decided to do a bit of work myself and looked up the field. 93 players which might turn into 94.

About 30% of the field are outside the Top 100 in the World.

Some 'fun' stats about the Valero field:

The projected geographical make-up of the TexasOpen field strength (as percentage of the total owgr EVR) looks like this:

- Europe - 53.3%
- USA - 35.9%
- RoW - 10.8%

If we take away all the international players, the field strength will be of just 24 points to the winner...

pd, I guess Rory accounts for the majority of the owgr strength...

Rory accounts for ~1/6 of the total EVR...

Its high time for the Euro's to start taking the lions share of the OWGR points. Case in point:

Through 3 months in 2013, and only counting players currently in the top 50.

Euros have 19 players in the top 50, with a net loss of 201 OWGR pts.
USA has 22 players in the top 50, with a net gain of 286 OWGR pts.
RotW has 9 players in the top 50, with a net gain of 4 OWGR pts.

Rory and Luke contribute all of the net loss of the Euros at 110 and 92 pts. The rest of the Euro players are essentially breakeven.

==========

I have always known that the OWGR is not volatile, but looking at the rankings from the end of the year until today, the rankings are incredibly static.

Top 30 is essentially the same with only Gonzo (33=>28), Fowler (31=>29) and Haas (35=>30) getting into the top 30, replacing Kaymer, Lawrie, and Molinari.

There has only been 5 players move into the top 50 since the beginning of the year. Stenson (42), Thompson (45), Freddie J (46), Sterne (49), Henley (50).

Replacing Fujita (43), Lynn (46), Bjorn (42), Toms (42), Choi (48).

============

The European component will surely change now as The Masters is here and the European season really gets underway - I would think this trend that you illustrate is fairly typical though worse this year due to a relatively poor showing at the MatchPlay.
Makes you think though; and imagine the "Internationals" show similar trends except for Saffers like Sterne, Fchardt and VanZyl.

PD - Siem said in his interview post Sunday win that he had an invitation to Valero, and was going to States Monday, irrespective of any Masters involvement. Agonisingly close to Masters!

Kwini,

I only counted the top 50 players, Fichardt and Van Zyl are nowhere close to the top 50.

Sterne contributes 51 positive points to Int'l side.

The big positives for Euro are Oleson (39 pts), Donaldson (37, and Stenson (33)

=========

Not sure why you think the Masters will treat the Euros better. No Euro winner at Augusta in this century. 8 USA wins and 5 RotW wins since Ollie won in 1999.

Well, Siem has appeared now in the updated Valero field; unfortunately, as I feared, can't find Stenson anymore...

GPB,
No! But they'll get some decent points there and then their season starts to gather pace.

Although we occasionally see some fine finishes (Gonzo for instance) by European-based golfers, they're much more likely to pick up significant points in Europe, just as Americans play better in the US.

DC has vanished from the Texas field as well..

princedracula wrote:DC has vanished from the Texas field as well..

DC really not playing much. Expect something in the high 70's from him Thurs and Fri.

kwinigolfer wrote:GPB,
No! But they'll get some decent points there and then their season starts to gather pace.

Although we occasionally see some fine finishes (Gonzo for instance) by European-based golfers, they're much more likely to pick up significant points in Europe, just as Americans play better in the US.

Aside from the BMW PGA, what are the EuroTour Tourneys that have 'significant' points? Oh yeah, there is that Match Play thing with 24? players,

I thought that on the European tour the period between the masters and US open was normally filled with events of very low value? If anything the Gulf swing is probably one of the periods where there is greater parity in the points on offer between the PGAT & Euro events.

The top 60 will become the focus in the lead up to the US open and those playing on the pga tour will find it easier to pick up the points needed to move into or stay in the top 60.

Just put a quick table together which shows anyone with a euro tour schedule in the period between the masters and US open is going to find it hard to pick up more points than those playing on the PGAT. It is a little rough and does not consider lower/higher quality of fields this season but it would be hard to imagine the gap will be closed significantly.

I have also averaged the volvo match play and madeira open week as they are held at the same time.

Spoiler:

The point I wanted to make is that the American players play considerably more (and almost without exception on their home Tour) in the early part of the year than the Europeans (at least half of their appearances on someone else's home Tour). No doubt in the autumn and December those trends are reversed.

Looking at the top dozen golfers from the U.S. and Europe in the rankings, the Europeans play an average of fewer than six events during this time, most of them in the U.S.. The Americans play 7 times, almost without exception (Dufner and Woods) in the cozy confines of home soil.

No European played more than Westwood's 8, whereas five Americans played 9 or more. Stricker and Poulter played four times, Donald, McIlroy, McDowewll and Lawrie just 5.

From The Masters onwards you'll see the Europeans more often, whether in the States or in Europe. That's all!

Mac - That's an interesting chart ... and also a great insight in that more point could be gained given the less talented fields in so many of those ET events. So, pick your battlefield.

Up until now, it would have been impossible for the Europeans to play on the "cozy confines of home soil" -- which, I suppose, is one reason the top Euro golfers are now moving to these United States.

Sr,
Chicken and egg there. Finchem's handcuffs, Major qualification bias etc.

But the point I was making is that a similar comparison from, say, mid-September thru November would almost certainly show a significant bias towards the European Tour.

Last year, for instance, the winners in Europe from Wk 34 onwards, included:
Wk 34: Paul Lawrie
35: Ramsay
36: Peter Hanson
37: Gonzo
41: Lowry
43: Peter Hanson
44: Poulter
45: Matteo
46: Stenson and Jimenez
47: McIlroy

In addition, Donald and Garcia won in Asia.

By comparison, American winners included:
34: Watney
(35/36 McIlroy)
38: Sneeeeedeker
40: Moore
(41: Blixt)
42: Gainey
43: Watney
(44: Poulter)
45: Beljan


If that is not self-explanatory, I don't rightly know what is.

Top Americans, by and large, don't play in Q4.
Top Europeans play significantly less in Q1.
Twas ever thus.

PD... Not sure where you are on your field for the Valero... but here are the changes since the original field was posted Friday 5PM.

WD's
Darren Clarke - originally a Sponsors Exemption
George Coetzee - originally a Sponsors Exemption
Chris Kirk
Hank Kuehne
Doug LaBelle
Arron Oberholser
Geoff Ogilvy
Henrik Stenson
Scott Verplank
Casey Wittenberg

ADDITIONS to Field

John Peterson - Sponsor Exemption Exempt - QT
Scott McCarron - in for Ogilvy
Joe Durant - in for Wittenberg
Chris DiMarco - in for Kuehne
Nathan Green - in for Oberholser
Lee Janzen - in for Kirk
Arjun Atwal - in for LaBelle
Matt Bettencourt - in for Stenson
Duffy Waldorf - in for Verplank

Marcel Siem - SE in for Clarke
Rich Beem - SE in for Coetzee

Todd Baek - Monday Qualifier
Mathias Gronberg - Monday Qualifier
James Shindler - Monday Qualifier
Zack Fischer - Monday Qualifier


+++++++

The other sponsor exemptions (already listed Friday)...
Cameron Beckman
Jamie Donaldson - Commissioners Foreign Exemption
David Duval
Gonzalo Fdez-Castano - Commissioners Foreign Exemption
Jason Gore
Shane Lowry
Jordan Spieth

Carl Cooper - Section Champion

Kwini, PD, GPB... not sure I'm completely up on your conversation... but consider the following points...

I would agree the differences in events played between Americans and Euro's account for some of the difference in OWGR points earned.

I would also agree that the disparity in event values between the PGAT and the other Tour's events "might" account for even more.

But I think there's something more going on here... I think it's a simple cycle. IMO the European's as a group have enjoyed an "unexpectedly higher than norm" distribution of top players in the OWGR over the last 3 or 4 years. The American's somewhat lower... and the Internationals significantly lower. What I think we're seeing now is a "re-balancing" of those cycles.

Right now... I think the cycle has over corrected with a few more Americans than normal winning early and the top 3 Euro's playing SIGNIFICANTLY below last year's level. Just Rory, Luke and Westy had earned roughly 325 OWGR points at this point last year, but they're at about 70 total this year. The other thing we're seeing is a modest resurgence from the International side.

For this year... I the long term cyclical "correction" will continue... but the temporary "over" correction will moderate.

Bottom line... I believe the Euro's have reached their zenith over the last few years at the top of the rankings and have no place to go except down, significantly. The Internationals will go up... and the American's slightly down. My guess.. if all cycles were "neutral" right now... the top-20 OWGR would be something like 7-8 American's... 6-7 Euro's and 5-6 Internationals... all fairly evenly distributed.

I also think there are some debate points at cross-purposes!!

Anyway, I dug up some stats for my Notes which bear out what I was trying to say.

Cheers, robo. Some serious WDs there, looks like it could well drop into the 42 point bracket now, I'll ckeck again later on...

And I agree with that cycle theory, the only problem that this time may be a bit more serious is how soon the European golf (not the Euro Tour, which is sort of developing a life of its own) will get back on it's feet. The current generation of European golfers is indeed very strong, but if this serious migration of top golfing events out of Europe that has accelerated over the past couple of years will not stop and revert at some point, it's hard to know if the future generations of European golfers will be anything as good and deep as this one... It'll all depend to a large extent on if and how quick/much the European economy will recover in future... It's not yet clear, but assuming that the Asian/RoW golf will continue to grow steadily, that will have to happen to the detriment of others, so a certain proportion of the top 50/100 golfers in the world will be slowly replaced by Asians/RoW. Are those displaced top golfers going to be mainly Europeans, Americans, who knows...?

princedracula wrote:And I agree with that cycle theory, the only problem that this time may be a bit more serious is how soon the European golf (not the Euro Tour, which is sort of developing a life of its own) will get back on it's feet. The current generation of European golfers is indeed very strong, but if this serious migration of top golfing events out of Europe that has accelerated over the past couple of years will not stop and revert at some point, it's hard to know if the future generations of European golfers will be anything as good and deep as this one... It'll all depend to a large extent on if and how quick/much the European economy will recover in future... It's not yet clear, but assuming that the Asian/RoW golf will continue to grow steadily, that will have to happen to the detriment of others, so a certain proportion of the top 50/100 golfers in the world will be slowly replaced by Asians/RoW. Are those displaced top golfers going to be mainly Europeans, Americans, who knows...?

I don't see where the migration of Euro top golfing talent to greener pastures has anything to do with the development of European players, in fact it might HELP instead of HURT. The key is do they have SOMEWHERE to play, and at least up to this point, world economics not withstanding, they do. In fact Euro players have more places to play now than they ever have... There's the PGA Tour, Euro Tour, Web.com and Challenge Tours... SA and Australasia Tours, Asia, OneAsia... And the key is... there's actually enough money on those tours that a good potential talent can survive out there in the "minor leagues" long enough until his talent is ready to move up to a bigger stage. 15 or 20 years ago, that was hardly the case. I personally know of several American's back then who went to play the Asian Tour, but the money on the tour couldn't support them.... they had to rely on sponsorships, and those would dry up quickly if the player didn't rapidly develop. But now... purses are such, they can survive and hang on longer, thus more time to develop. Plus... you still have the American University system willing to recruit and season the best of your amateur talent who want an education as well.

But the bottom line on Euro players... I'll say it again, maybe I wasn't clear. IMO, even with some of the top Euro players down a bit at the start of this year... the current cycle is such that European's are still OVER represented in the highest echelons of professional golf (I'm talking top-50). As of today's rankings, Euro's hold 19 of the top-50 and 21 of the top-52 spots on the OWGR. I can't prove it, but I believe that's likley well higher than "statistically expected" taking into account all factors such as size of the European talent pool, and their access to the game at the top levels. And still having 3 of the top 4 is "very unexpected". The number of Euro's in the top-100 is probably closer to correct at 36... but even that should probably be more like 32-34.

And for "rest of the world golf" (non-American and non-European). I agree it will grow... and I expect top R.O.W. players to replace both Americans and Europeans proportionately. Right now I think the South African's may have figured out how to develop it's limited talent pool better than country on earth on the men's side. Perhaps innitatives like Ernie Els' are the reason. (the Swede's are doing a great job too) The Aussies seem down at the moment, and I don't expect that to continue for long... and who knows just what is going to come out of China, Korea and other Asian countries. I don't expect the kind of flood the LPGA experienced... so maybe it's not a tsunami, but an Asian wave IS coming. And I just can't help but believe that sooner or later... the Japanese golfers are going to figure out how to get their games to better translate to the world stage.

para 1). Completely agree!

para 2). Kinda disagree.

para 3). Completely disagree - these successors to the Singh, Els, Goosen, Choi, even Maruyama generation are not winners. They're not winning enough and most of them don't care - in the United States at any rate. Take Ryo - he can still get into The Masters.

ok, maybe I wasn't very clear there... I was referring to the 'migration' of the top golfing events out of Europe, not of golfers... and that is hard to see how it could help long term...

Robo: You made a lot of great points.

The amazing success of South African golfers is astounding. The Ernie Els Effect is developing a lot successful golfers. But the men only.

There are not any South African women players on the fast track to being World Class.

But, GPB, most American observers regard success as being on the PGA Tour:
When was the last time a SAF golfer won in the U.S.? Two years ago??

(Not sure I know the answer, but can't think of one since Charl's Masters win in 2011.)

Fact is, the only person who's now winning consistently is T.Woods, followed by Rory, then Phil and Dustin but just once a year is enough for them.

Kwini... I think the metric for judging golfers is changing... Yes wins are still the most important thing... but I believe we need to start looking more at quality "world" wins as opposed to just PGA or Euro Tour individually. Also I believe the OWGR is becoming more and more an important metric in judging players playing unequal tours. It's not perfect, but it's not awful either.

But as for the South Africans... it's hard to know exactly where they are regarding the PGAT because many of them have yet to get there, or are so new to the Tour we've yet to see what they can really do. However... 3 major winners in the last 3 years is nothing to sneeze at... as is 6 South Africans in the OWGR top-50 considering it has roughly 1/8th the golf course count of the UK... and 1/50th that of the U.S.

robo,
I did a "letter from DLIII to DLII" a few years ago, discussing the change of "currency" from $$ to owgr pts.

There was the story doing the rounds about that time that Poulter would feed his pda during a round trying to figure out the owgr points to be received depending on his score on any one hole, so infatuated was he with his (perceived) status. Probably apochryphal but it kinda resonates with me when I see so many players rocketing up the rankings, but winless.

Three Majors is great, but what have they done here otherwise? Like so many, they're here for the money and not for grafting out wins.

Sooner or later, and it applies to the Europeans at least as much, the rank and file of the PGA Tour are going to take serious umbrage at the "tourists" (as I used to disparagingly describe European visitors to the multi-national US subsidiary that I worked for here).

Agreed, but South Africans are winning elsewhere including the US Tour.

Right now I think South Africa vs Continent of Europe to win the Masters would be about an Even Bet. The entire continent of Europe.

So was the Maple Syrup season a complete success? Hope so, Dad needs to send me extra this year as I am almost completely out.

Now I am craving a homemade rhubarb pie. No home grown rhubarb here.

But I will take a pass on the fiddleheads. Those things are nasty and Mom would work so hard to pick and prepare them. No amount of vinegar would make them palatable.

kwinigolfer wrote:robo,
(as I used to disparagingly describe European visitors to the multi-national US subsidiary that I worked for here).

Considering that I know what town you live in, I can only think of two multi-national companies in that city (or a neighboring town).

My ex-step brother used to work for one of those companies in and I almost went to work for the other in Vermont.

Three letters or two?

GPB,
This should be a record maple syrup year - make plenty of room for supplies heading south!

Without checking too closely, I'd say last year was the first year for absolutely ages that no South African won in the USA . . . . . .

I'll check (and not include Nick Price):

1990: Frost
1991: Allem
1992: Frost (2)
1993: Frost (2), Allem (2)
1994: Els, Frost
1995: Els
1996: Els
1997: Frost, Els (2)
1998: Els
1999: Els
2000: Els, Sabbatini
2001: Goosen
2002: Els, Goosen
2003: Els (2), Goosen, Sabbatini
2004: Els (2), Goosen (2)
2005: Goosen
2006: Immelman, Sabbatini
2007: Sabbatini
2008: Els, Immelman
2009: Goosen, Sabbatini
2010: Els (2), Clark
2011: Sabbatini, Schwartzel

Probably someone I've missed, but don't think anyone rang the bell last year.

PS: No, not in Vermont (here as in the U.S. but was in Shotrock country, robo country, and California at the time(s)!)

OK I was thinking "I've Been Moved" And Gen. Dynamics. But you probably knew that.

I think they are still pretty big in Burlington.

robo, I see that the 'Inside the Field' page on pgatour.com has resurfaced as you've said a while ago. However, that very useful section that used to be at the bottom of the page with the WD/replacement updates is not there anymore. Not sure what they're intentions are with this, but I hope they'll bring that back in soon, having to go through the whole field all the time to see if someone's name is still there or not is not very practical... In the meantime, I'll rely on your updates here...

Ah, plus there are some confusing signals in there, e.g. KJ is mentioned in the 'Players Winners' category, but then there's no sign of him in the 'International Players' section. I assume he's still in, is he...?

Other than that, as I said yesterday, looks now like it just slipped into the 42 points teritory by a couple of EVR...

K.J is still a go...

Hopefully I won't jinx him... but if he wins in San Antonio, Padraig is guarranteed to move to #34 in the ranks, regardless of the other results...

Final count:

- Valero @ 44 points (once again, just makes it on the number)

Good to see Horschel continuing to do good things for my FT, with a win he could just about squeeze into the top 60, if he's lucky...