Who will make the AP Play-Offs and Top 6?

First topic message reminder :

4 rounds to go and play-off places definitely up for grabs. Top 3 look as if they should make it, with Saints and Glaws still in the fight. Cannot exclude Wasps but it will be tough for them. Bath and Exeter still hopeful of making HEC but narrow losses this weekend have not helped.


3 rounds left and starting to take shape. Whilst not quite mathematically through, with a 13pt lead over 5th and 11pts over 3rd - Sarries will have a home semi. Tigers big win over Saints and Quins loss to Gloucester make the Leicester boys odds on favourites to join them. Quins v Saints on the last weekend could still be a hugely important game.

Just two rounds to go and really the play-off spots are all but settled. Sarries and Tigers will in all probability be hosting Quins and Saints, with just who travels where to be decided. Gloucester can still make it, but their form is poor, they have two tricky matches remaining and the two sides above them have reasonably straightforward matches in round 21. Glaws should be back in the HEC as the teams below them have their own tricky run-in.

Exeter have sneaked into 6th spot and will hope that victory over Wasps next week would be enough to stay there - certainly you can't see Bath beating both Leicester and Sarries!!


Current Table after round 20:
Sarries 72pts
Tigers 68pts
Quins 60pts
Saints 59pts
--------------------
Glaws 54pts
Exeter 50pts
===============
Bath 48pts
Wasps 47pts



Remaining fixtures:

Sarries: Gloucester (A), Bath (H)
Tigers: Bath (A), London Irish (H),
Quins: Worcester (A), Northampton (H)
Saints: Sale (H), Harlequins (A)
Glaws: Saracens (H), Exeter (A)
Exeter: Wasps (A), Gloucester (H)

Bath: Leicester (H), Saracens (A)
Wasps: Exeter (H), Sale (A)

Jimpy wrote:

LondonTiger wrote:

Jimpy wrote:Another poor game for Ashton v Quins , and yet another yellow card for foul play. He's trying too hard and must calm down.

I can see Glaws pinching a win V Quins on Friday. I think Tigers will draw with Saints at The Gardens.

While I do not think it was malicious, I did feel the tackle was bad enough that Ashton should have been sent off rather than just yellow. (I am biaised though as a stiff arm tackle like that fractured 3 vertebrae in my neck)


I am hopeful that we can extend the winning streak over Saints to 6 matches.

I'm not sure how you can say you didn't think it was malicious but that he should have seen red? It was a swinging arm from where I was sitting, he was lucky not to be sent off.

Red.

Yappysnap I agree with that.

LondonTiger yes hindsight is a wonderful thing.

In regards to the Ashton incident - it was certainly a sin bin but it is debatable whether it should have been a red. In the match itself it had relatively little effect.

It was reckless and potentially dangerous but I have seen harsher incidents than that.

Also Quins were fortunate not to be punished for a few high tackles themselves, notably the one that injured Strettle.

Ashton could get banned for a number of weeks but seeing that some players have had no bans when they should have he might be treated leniently too.

beshocked wrote:Yappysnap I agree with that.

LondonTiger yes hindsight is a wonderful thing.

In regards to the Ashton incident - it was certainly a sin bin but it is debatable whether it should have been a red. In the match itself it had relatively little effect.

It was reckless and potentially dangerous but I have seen harsher incidents than that.

Also Quins were fortunate not to be punished for a few high tackles themselves, notably the one that injured Strettle.
Ashton could get banned for a number of weeks but seeing that some players have had no bans when they should have he might be treated leniently too.

Was Strettle taken high? I don't think so, in fact, he went to ground and it was very difficult to see how the injury - which appeared to be to his leg - had occured.

Jimpy wrote:
I'm not sure how you can say you didn't think it was malicious but that he should have seen red? It was a swinging arm from where I was sitting, he was lucky not to be sent off.

I do not believe he intened to connect with the man's head with a stiff arm - therefore not malicious.
However he did - therefore Red card.

Jimpy wrote:

beshocked wrote:Yappysnap I agree with that.

LondonTiger yes hindsight is a wonderful thing.

In regards to the Ashton incident - it was certainly a sin bin but it is debatable whether it should have been a red. In the match itself it had relatively little effect.

It was reckless and potentially dangerous but I have seen harsher incidents than that.

Also Quins were fortunate not to be punished for a few high tackles themselves, notably the one that injured Strettle.
Ashton could get banned for a number of weeks but seeing that some players have had no bans when they should have he might be treated leniently too.

Was Strettle taken high? I don't think so, in fact, he went to ground and it was very difficult to see how the injury - which appeared to be to his leg - had occured.

Of course you wouldn't agree with me. When do you ever agree with me? I'll have to see if I can find the incident. I am sure there was a high tackle on him.

LondonTiger wrote:

Jimpy wrote:
I'm not sure how you can say you didn't think it was malicious but that he should have seen red? It was a swinging arm from where I was sitting, he was lucky not to be sent off.

I do not believe he intened to connect with the man's head with a stiff arm - therefore not malicious.
However he did - therefore Red card.

All you want is the ban. Let's be honest.

Monye, I think, put in a very reckless tackle, for which the ref played advantage and Sarries went on to score the try. For me at the very least the ref should have gone back and talked to Monye. Yellow card was probably merited.

Strettle was caught borderline high earlier, but I did not feel there was any issue with the tackle when he got injured. Just a case of his studs catching in the surface.

beshocked wrote:

Jimpy wrote:

beshocked wrote:Yappysnap I agree with that.

LondonTiger yes hindsight is a wonderful thing.

In regards to the Ashton incident - it was certainly a sin bin but it is debatable whether it should have been a red. In the match itself it had relatively little effect.

It was reckless and potentially dangerous but I have seen harsher incidents than that.

Also Quins were fortunate not to be punished for a few high tackles themselves, notably the one that injured Strettle.
Ashton could get banned for a number of weeks but seeing that some players have had no bans when they should have he might be treated leniently too.

Was Strettle taken high? I don't think so, in fact, he went to ground and it was very difficult to see how the injury - which appeared to be to his leg - had occured.

Of course you wouldn't agree with me. When do you ever agree with me? I'll have to see if I can find the incident. I am sure there was a high tackle on him.

I generally don't agree with you when you're just plain wrong - or I think you're just plain wrong. Why should that be a problem? I know you claim to be right all the time, but sometimes, you aint.

Londontiger agreed. The ref didn't card Quins - I presume it was because Saracens scored a try.

As I say perhaps I will need to look at the tackle on Strettle again but I did at the time think it was high.

It's a problem Jimpy because you have nothing constructive to say. Just criticisms all the time. The only thing in the Sarries-Quins game you home in on is Ashton's reckless "tackle".

No comment about the game itself.

beshocked wrote:

LondonTiger wrote:

Jimpy wrote:
I'm not sure how you can say you didn't think it was malicious but that he should have seen red? It was a swinging arm from where I was sitting, he was lucky not to be sent off.

I do not believe he intened to connect with the man's head with a stiff arm - therefore not malicious.
However he did - therefore Red card.

All you want is the ban. Let's be honest.

Why would I want that?

Because you believe I am anti-Sarries - well Sarries would be a stronger team right now without him.

I feel it was a bad challenge, though not malicious, and I have had my neck broken by such a challenge.

I will stop now as frankly your accusation has made me too angry to be rational.

beshocked wrote:Londontiger agreed. The ref didn't card Quins - I presume it was because Saracens scored a try.

As I say perhaps I will need to look at the tackle on Strettle again but I did at the time think it was high.
It's a problem Jimpy because you have nothing constructive to say. Just criticisms all the time. The only thing in the Sarries-Quins game you home in on is Ashton's reckless "tackle".

No comment about the game itself.

It may have been, but it was indeed borderline and it certainly didn't injure him as you suggested.

LondonTiger wrote:

beshocked wrote:

LondonTiger wrote:

Jimpy wrote:
I'm not sure how you can say you didn't think it was malicious but that he should have seen red? It was a swinging arm from where I was sitting, he was lucky not to be sent off.

I do not believe he intened to connect with the man's head with a stiff arm - therefore not malicious.
However he did - therefore Red card.

All you want is the ban. Let's be honest.

Why would I want that?

Because you believe I am anti-Sarries - well Sarries would be a stronger team right now without him.

I feel it was a bad challenge, though not malicious, and I have had my neck broken by such a challenge.

I will stop now as frankly your accusation has made me too angry to be rational.

He thinks everybody is anti-Sarries and that there's some kind of conspiracy theory afoot. Its borderline paranoia.

I agree Ashton's swinging arm was probably not malicious. But it was hard and it was high and it put his man down. I think it had to be red.

LondonTiger you do want him to get banned though. Is that not correct?

If he gets banned he gets banned. As you say Saracens probably won't miss him but I do feel that Ashton can't do anything right in some peoples' eyes.

It was reckless and stupid but I don't want his confidence to go even further down.

His tackling technique is poor.

Far too much focus on this incident.

doctor_grey wrote:I agree Ashton's swinging arm was probably not malicious. But it was hard and it was high and it put his man down. I think it had to be red.

And there was me thinking it was just myself who wasn't commenting on the game itself. How very dare you....

Ok at 27:30 on the full replay http://www.premiershiprugby.tv/

you can see incident with Strettle. Care does indeed catch him high, round the back of the head. Should have been a penalty. The injury is to his left knee caused by his studs catching in the surface. He did play on though, not being replaced till the sdtart of the second half.

Jimpy you are anti Sarries. LondonTiger is a lot more reasonable than yourself. He actually talks about rugby. A lot more balanced.

doctor grey at the time it didn't matter if he gave a yellow or red because of the time left on the clock - 8 minutes. The only reason why it matters to you guys is the desire for a ban. It did not affect the match whether Ashton was shown a yellow or red. It was not a match turning moment.

beshocked wrote:LondonTiger you do want him to get banned though. Is that not correct?

If he gets banned he gets banned. As you say Saracens probably won't miss him but I do feel that Ashton can't do anything right in some peoples' eyes.

It was reckless and stupid but I don't want his confidence to go even further down.

His tackling technique is poor.

Far too much focus on this incident.

So it was reckless and stupid, but he shouldn't get banned as it may affect his confidence?

In all seriousness, had that been Chris Hala'ufia making that tackle, most people, yourself included would be calling for a red card and a ban. Can't be one rule for one and one for another. (nothwithstanding that once found guilty of the offence big Chris's ban would be longer due to previous!)

beshocked wrote:LondonTiger you do want him to get banned though. Is that not correct?

If he gets banned he gets banned. As you say Saracens probably won't miss him but I do feel that Ashton can't do anything right in some peoples' eyes.

It was reckless and stupid but I don't want his confidence to go even further down.
His tackling technique is poor.

Far too much focus on this incident.

Wrapping the poor dear in cotton wool simply to try and preserve his fragile state of mind should not even come into it. I'm sure the RFU wont be so sentimental should it be decided further action is required.

It was a good game, although Quins were poor and seemed to get worse as the game went on. Saracens are looking like they're the team to beat this year, what is it, 5 points clear now?

beshocked wrote:Jimpy you are anti Sarries. LondonTiger is a lot more reasonable than yourself. He actually talks about rugby. A lot more balanced.

doctor grey at the time it didn't matter if he gave a yellow or red because of the time left on the clock - 8 minutes. The only reason why it matters to you guys is the desire for a ban. It did not affect the match whether Ashton was shown a yellow or red. It was not a match turning moment.

Like and you are?

LondonTiger wrote:Ok at 27:30 on the full replay http://www.premiershiprugby.tv/

you can see incident with Strettle. Care does indeed catch him high, round the back of the head. Should have been a penalty. The injury is to his left knee caused by his studs catching in the surface. He did play on though, not being replaced till the sdtart of the second half.

Fine I concede that Strettle did not injured because of the tackle but there was a high tackle on him.

As you believe it was a red card offence for Ashton what ban would you suggest? How long?

beshocked wrote:Jimpy you are anti Sarries. LondonTiger is a lot more reasonable than yourself. He actually talks about rugby. A lot more balanced.

doctor grey at the time it didn't matter if he gave a yellow or red because of the time left on the clock - 8 minutes. The only reason why it matters to you guys is the desire for a ban. It did not affect the match whether Ashton was shown a yellow or red. It was not a match turning moment.

So what you are saying is that if you commit a red card offence in the final 10 minutes of the game it's right to only give a yellow card as it does not have a material affect on the match. I shall remind you of this when someone spear tackles one of te Saracens players into the Aliianz Arena pitch with 3 minutes to play on the clock.

beshocked wrote:LondonTiger you do want him to get banned though. Is that not correct?

I do not care if he is banned or not. As I believe that there was no intent I would be happy for it to be one of those cases where a red card is deemed enough and just sits on the record.

What I want is for players to know that if they aim up at the collar bone, then should they get it wrong they will have to pay the consequences. My problem is with the tackle, not the man or the team. There were 3 significant high tackles -

Care on Strettle - High, swinging soft arm from a wrong footed player that catches back of head. Should have been a penalty, and maybe more - not sure.
Monye - should have been yellow, a soft swinging arm from a wrong footed player. should have been yellow as it catches him full on.
Ashton - worse of the lot for me as it is a stiff swinnging arm that is driven into the head from face on. Mitigation is that the player is ducking slightly but as I said for me a red card.

Perhaps i am over harsh on this.

Jimpy yes I admit I am a bit biased. Yes it's 5 points but can't take anything for granted. Leicester can still easily top the table for example.

Ozzy3123 I am saying I don't want him to be banned. Why would I desire a player from my team to be banned? If he does get banned I will of course understand why but it's not something I will be particularly wanting.

In regards to Halauifa he has been a bit unlucky, particularly the incident vs London Welsh.

In some cases it is one rule for one and one for another.

beshocked wrote:doctor grey at the time it didn't matter if he gave a yellow or red because of the time left on the clock - 8 minutes. The only reason why it matters to you guys is the desire for a ban. It did not affect the match whether Ashton was shown a yellow or red. It was not a match turning moment.

Actually, I didn't see it until this morning. I don't care about a ban or not. Certainly with only 8 minutes to go, it had not impact on the score.

Ozzy3213 wrote:

beshocked wrote:Jimpy you are anti Sarries. LondonTiger is a lot more reasonable than yourself. He actually talks about rugby. A lot more balanced.

doctor grey at the time it didn't matter if he gave a yellow or red because of the time left on the clock - 8 minutes. The only reason why it matters to you guys is the desire for a ban. It did not affect the match whether Ashton was shown a yellow or red. It was not a match turning moment.

So what you are saying is that if you commit a red card offence in the final 10 minutes of the game it's right to only give a yellow card as it does not have a material affect on the match. I shall remind you of this when someone spear tackles one of te Saracens players into the Aliianz Arena pitch with 3 minutes to play on the clock.

In the final 10 minutes of a game a yellow or red card still has the same effect - the player will still be off the pitch. The only difference it makes is it's more likely to go to the citing commissioner. In any case it would probably go there anyway.

Do you think that if a Saracens player gets spear tackled it would go to the citing commissioner?

If this incident of Ashton's happened earlier of course it would be a completely different matter - a red card vs sin bin could have made a huge difference.

doctor_grey wrote:

beshocked wrote:doctor grey at the time it didn't matter if he gave a yellow or red because of the time left on the clock - 8 minutes. The only reason why it matters to you guys is the desire for a ban. It did not affect the match whether Ashton was shown a yellow or red. It was not a match turning moment.

Actually, I didn't see it until this morning. I don't care about a ban or not. Certainly with only 8 minutes to go, it had not impact on the score.

That's my point. It had no impact on the score. If you think it is a red card incident then Ashton is likely to get a ban. How long should it be in your opinion?

beshocked wrote:That's my point. It had no impact on the score. If you think it is a red card incident then Ashton is likely to get a ban. How long should it be in your opinion?

My reply from earlier:

I do not care if he is banned or not. As I believe that there was no intent I would be happy for it to be one of those cases where a red card is deemed enough and just sits on the record.

What I want is for players to know that if they aim up at the collar bone, then should they get it wrong they will have to pay the consequences. My problem is with the tackle, not the man or the team.

Fair enough LondonTiger.

How do you think you'll do vs Saints?

Since we lost to them Round 1 2010/11 we have the wool over them with 5 wins in a row.

As a team they have certain strengths - but we should be able to counter those strengths. My only worry is that we have been extremely profligate this season, wasting so many chances it beggars belief.

But we should be able to turn them over.

I hope not. But I don't think we match up to Tigers very well.

OP updated with tonights win for Glaws.

Saints could go second if they win tomorrow, while a tigers win sees them open up a little gap over Quins and makes the fight for 3rd/4th very interesting.

OP updated.

Sarries and Tigers look like they will be hosting the semi-finals. Quins, Saints and Glaws fighting for the chance to join them in the semis.

Bath, Wasps and Exeter fighting it out for the last guaranteed HEC spot.

LondonTiger wrote:OP updated.

Sarries and Tigers look like they will be hosting the semi-finals. Quins, Saints and Glaws fighting for the chance to join them in the semis.

Bath, Wasps and Exeter fighting it out for the last guaranteed HEC spot.

Wot no pessimism?

Saving that for the HEC.

Last season it was only when I let the optimism back in (that sunny day in May at Twickenham) that we faltered.

OP updated to reflect round 20.

Question now is really who will make the final HEC spots. Gloucester need one win to guarantee HEC rugby next season, though two losses may not be disastrous as Bath have to beat Tigers and Saints to have any chance of overtaking them.
Victory for Exeter at Adams Park could well be enough to give the Devon boys a second HEC season. Defeat would leave an intriguing set of matches in round 22.


Still a lot to play for.

I'd much rather go to WR than Allianz Park

Glaws are lucky that Bath and Wasps have some tricky last few fixtures, seeing as once again we've timed our stupendous dip in form quite impeccably.

I think the top 6 will remain as it is now, Bath or Wasps could get lucky if Sarries win the HC.

EnglishReign wrote:Glaws are lucky that Bath and Wasps have some tricky last few fixtures, seeing as once again we've timed our stupendous dip in form quite impeccably.

I think the top 6 will remain as it is now, Bath or Wasps could get lucky if Sarries win the HC.

I certainly wouldn't say Gloucester's last 2 games are that straightforward - Sarries at home and Exeter away.

Wasps do have the easier fixtures I think - Exeter at home and Sale away.

Bath of course have the toughest - Leicester at home, Sarries away.

beshocked wrote:

EnglishReign wrote:Glaws are lucky that Bath and Wasps have some tricky last few fixtures, seeing as once again we've timed our stupendous dip in form quite impeccably.

I think the top 6 will remain as it is now, Bath or Wasps could get lucky if Sarries win the HC.

I certainly wouldn't say Gloucester's last 2 games are that straightforward - Sarries at home and Exeter away.

Wasps do have the easier fixtures I think - Exeter at home and Sale away.

Bath of course have the toughest - Leicester at home, Sarries away.

We have it tough as well, but I think we have enough points to remain in the top 6.

Also, Sarries are now guaranteed a home semi and have a big European match the week following the Glaws game...so hopefully you put out a 2nd string side as a win for us will secure top 6!

EnglishReign wrote:

beshocked wrote:

EnglishReign wrote:Glaws are lucky that Bath and Wasps have some tricky last few fixtures, seeing as once again we've timed our stupendous dip in form quite impeccably.

I think the top 6 will remain as it is now, Bath or Wasps could get lucky if Sarries win the HC.

I certainly wouldn't say Gloucester's last 2 games are that straightforward - Sarries at home and Exeter away.

Wasps do have the easier fixtures I think - Exeter at home and Sale away.

Bath of course have the toughest - Leicester at home, Sarries away.

We have it tough as well, but I think we have enough points to remain in the top 6.

Also, Sarries are now guaranteed a home semi and have a big European match the week following the Glaws game...so hopefully you put out a 2nd string side as a win for us will secure top 6!

so we may scrape a losing bonus point at best then!

We were truly awful on Friday and we will have to see a mercurial turn around in form if we are to get anything out of the game. I think we're going to limp over the line into 6th courtesy of Wasps' and Bath's tough run in.

HongKongCherry wrote:

EnglishReign wrote:

beshocked wrote:

EnglishReign wrote:Glaws are lucky that Bath and Wasps have some tricky last few fixtures, seeing as once again we've timed our stupendous dip in form quite impeccably.

I think the top 6 will remain as it is now, Bath or Wasps could get lucky if Sarries win the HC.

I certainly wouldn't say Gloucester's last 2 games are that straightforward - Sarries at home and Exeter away.

Wasps do have the easier fixtures I think - Exeter at home and Sale away.

Bath of course have the toughest - Leicester at home, Sarries away.

We have it tough as well, but I think we have enough points to remain in the top 6.

Also, Sarries are now guaranteed a home semi and have a big European match the week following the Glaws game...so hopefully you put out a 2nd string side as a win for us will secure top 6!

so we may scrape a losing bonus point at best then!

We were truly awful on Friday and we will have to see a mercurial turn around in form if we are to get anything out of the game. I think we're going to limp over the line into 6th courtesy of Wasps' and Bath's tough run in.

Well our form dropped dramatically from beating Quins to getting destroyed by Sale, so Lord knows what will happen on Saturday.

You seem to raise your game for the Saracens match up. Something I think you will do again. As a Sarries fan I am certainly not complacent.

Gloucester is never an easy opponent for us. I think some players will be rested but I don't think you'll see a dramatically weakened side from Saracens.

Some sort of momentum is needed before the game vs Toulon.

beshocked wrote:You seem to raise your game for the Saracens match up. Something I think you will do again. As a Sarries fan I am certainly not complacent.

Gloucester is never an easy opponent for us. I think some players will be rested but I don't think you'll see a dramatically weakened side from Saracens.

Some sort of momentum is needed before the game vs Toulon.

On present form you'll get that momentum from us! We may raise our game, but its a long way to raise from no better than a pub side