Tokyo & Beijing thread - ATP 500 series

[lydian]

Tokyo draw & results: http://www.atpworldtour.com/Share/Event-Draws.aspx?Year=2012&EventId=329&Draw=ms
Andy and Tomas are top seeds.

Beijing draw & results: http://www.atpworldtour.com/Share/Event-Draws.aspx?Year=2012&EventId=747&Draw=ms
Novak and Ferrer are top seeds.

[lydian]

Andy just sneaked the first set vs. Dr Ivo...9-7 in the TB.
Saved set point too.

[CaledonianCraig]

Bound to be a bit of rust after three weeks off and we know what a brute of a serve Karlovic has so this was always going to be pretty tight.

[lydian]

Yep...it's rare Karlo loses any set by more than 6-4 given that thunderous serve, on any surface.

BTW - Laura Robson lost her 2nd round match vs Dominguez Lino 7-5 6-3, both are similar ranking around 60 so it's not a terrible loss. Shame though.

[sirfredperry]

Thought Laura might go far in this tourney but she's having a good run and will get qualifying points for this.
Bit shocked to log on to see Andy playing not Monfils but Karlo. It regularly comes down to tie breaks if you're playing Ivo and you have to win them. That first set TB sounds fairly hairy.

[lags72]

Even though he's now one of the oldest players on tour, Karlo's name on a drawsheet remains a pretty uncomfortable prospect for anyone, top guys included.

Given that he must have expended less energy and covered less mileage than most during his career, there seems no reason (assuming he actually wants to ....) he can't carry on for a good few years yet .....

[sirfredperry]

Pleased to see US Open champion (nice to be able to say it) Andy Murray has beaten giant Ivo 7-6, 6-4. Good win, all considered

[CaledonianCraig]

A solid enough win for Andy Murray. You will hear no excuses from me if Andy doesn't go on to win in Japan. He is top seed, reigning champion and newly-crowned slam winner so really should be expecting to win here especially if he is serious about wanting to mount a challenge to become world No.1 in the future.

[sirfredperry]

CC. Yeah, Andy should do OK and I wonder if this Karlovic match might be his trickiest, especially as he was bound to be a bit rusty.
OK, he didn't face any break points but it must be fairly nerve-racking playing Ivo knowing that you'll have so few chances to break him and you must hold on to your own serve.

[The Special Juan]

Murray's draw isn't the best or worst. Tipsy or Raonic in the later rounds and possibly a Berdy final.

[sirfredperry]

I see Djoko has come through against Berrer, albeit in three sets after dropping the middle set on a TB. Would be surprised if Nole does not win this tourney.

[lydian]

Given Ferrer is the next highest seed and Berdy isnt there, he's an absolute runaway favourite for the title...indeed anything less would be a shock really.

[Deano88]

Ferrer retires during the first set agaisnt Lu

[socal1976]

Well David has played so many matches this year, nice update DEano. It is sad to see him pull out like that. But we see a lot of these fatigue type withdrawals and walk overs this time of the year. Players are hitting the physical wall.

[lydian]

Do we know what the problem with Ferrer was? Its a shame to go all that way...but then he'll want to be ok for the Shanghai Masters.
This surely leaves the door even more wide open for Djokovic to win in Beijing. If he does then YE #1 is all but over.

[Deano88]

cant seem to find the reason for ferrer's withdrawl atm, sure it will appear on the net soon enough!
Figured I spend enough of my time reading this forum recently I may as well sign up!

[socal1976]

Wow Lydian, I am Djoko fan and I don't see it as that clear cut, I give Roger a lot of credit for how good he is indoors and he is capable of defending his great run last year in the indoors, but I do agree Novak is the front runner for certain.

[socal1976]

cant seem to find the reason for ferrer's withdrawl atm, sure it will appear on the net soon enough!
Figured I spend enough of my time reading this forum recently I may as well sign up!

Good on you Deano welcome we are always glad to have new posters!

[lydian]

Nice one deano88, yep welcome aboard - good to have you posting

Hope its not serious for Ferrer...some dont like his style of play, fair enough...I've even called him Ferret myself a few times ...but you cant fault his commitment to squeezung out every last drop of skill he has and professionalism.

Yes but socal...if Djoko wins here he's 1500pts ahead in the race. There is no way Federer is clawing that back...for one thing 2013 isnt well timed as Paris is right before WTF so he wont do Paris as well...thats 1000 pts he'll lose from last year, and not gain this.

[socal1976]

From your lips to gods ears Lydian I hope that what you say is correct. But as you know I haven't been that convinced of Djoko's form this year, so I feel that he is still a bit vulnerable. Especially, if both murray and Fed play well in the indoor season. Lets just say I agree with a lot of what you say but still believe there are more variables that should be taken into consideration.

[time please]

I think Federer is unlikely to really go all out for the year end No 1 because it could well mean that he is completely spent for the beginning of 2013 and that might be why he talked about re-evaluating just what is most important. He is committed to the exhibitions in South America and surely has to pace himself this side of Christmas? Unless, of course, he would like the 6th year ending above all and hang 2013?

I don't know if he is definitely confirmed for Shanghai - reports a week or so ago suggested so, but there are some which suggest that is not so. He must have declared by now, surely?

[time please]

My above makes it look as though I believe the No1 is in Fed's hands - I don't. I think it is Djokovic's for the taking and I'm sure it might well be the consolation he is looking for after the USO loss.

[lydian]

There are variables...and some of those are that Federer could lose early too! Even if Djoko only amasses 500 points between now and end of year after this week...which he would do easily...Federer will have to get 2000 points to equal. Thats going to take some doing...if he got to the final of every event...e.g Shanghai, Basel, Paris and WTF...that would give him about 2000pts...its a tall order to do all that...assuming he enters Paris too! If he doesnt he needs to win at least one of the others and get to the finals...and hope Djoko does poorly too...no way!

[lydian]

I think he is confirmed for Shanghai TP. Yes that interview he gave post DC was a little weird. We all assumed he'd miss Shanghai...maybe he will still do so...he has pulled out late before. Hard to see beyond Djoko getting his 2nd YE #1. But going to be good to see the race to the end this year as you feel they've all got more in the tank than this time last year...Rafa's absence notwithstanding.

[lags72]

Don't think it's much of a race in reality, it's surely Nole's for the taking.

I'd be truly stunned if the age difference doesn't finally begin to tell in this late part of the season ; Federer has played a lot of tennis this year (significantly more than he had at the equivalent stage last year), and he ain't getting any younger .........

[lydian]

Good points lags...for a guy of his tender years he's sure put alot of miles under his belt in 2012. And we heard him sound deflated and tired after the last round of DC...saying he wanted to reassess things, etc. Sounds like its catching up with him...be amazed if he can win another 2 titles before YE.

[socal1976]

I agree with the points above but again Nole dropped a set today to who? I am still not convinced he is playing well enough frankly to be number#1. That is really my big concern not the points break down. If Novak plays reasonably well he should be the year end #1 it is clear he is the front runner. But I just don't think it is a lock that he will play well enough and that fed and murray won't win enough for federer to edge him out. Certainly, if you are placing money Novak is a clear favorite, but I feel there is a lot to be determined and he can't just win the #1 ranking by default he has to play a bit better.

[lydian]

Yes Djoko hasnt played much tennis of late...he'll be fine after a couple of rounds.

[Danny_1982]

I remain pretty convinced Novak will be year end number 1. And whilst Murray's maiden win and Olympic gold and Rogers SW19 win and return to no.1 may be the most box office achievements, I think Novak's consistency will mean he deserves it.

He's lost a lot of bigger matches this year and that will disappoint him, and no doubt he'll be looking at ways to get back on top of those matches in 2013.... But he has been by a mile the most impressive in getting to those semi and final matches. He has by and large destroyed the field below the top guys.

2013 looks so intriguing. Novak will be looking to get 'it' back, Murray looking to maintain 'it', Roger to stun us all by reproducing it and Rafa fighting to find his way back. It's going to be fascinating to see who is most successful.

[User 774433]

cant seem to find the reason for ferrer's withdrawl atm, sure it will appear on the net soon enough!
Figured I spend enough of my time reading this forum recently I may as well sign up!

Indeed Deano, good to have you on here

Who do you support?

[socal1976]

I remain pretty convinced Novak will be year end number 1. And whilst Murray's maiden win and Olympic gold and Rogers SW19 win and return to no.1 may be the most box office achievements, I think Novak's consistency will mean he deserves it.

He's lost a lot of bigger matches this year and that will disappoint him, and no doubt he'll be looking at ways to get back on top of those matches in 2013.... But he has been by a mile the most impressive in getting to those semi and final matches. He has by and large destroyed the field below the top guys.

2013 looks so intriguing. Novak will be looking to get 'it' back, Murray looking to maintain 'it', Roger to stun us all by reproducing it and Rafa fighting to find his way back. It's going to be fascinating to see who is most successful.

Great post Danny, have to agree with everything you say. 2013 in my mind will be the year of murrovician dynasty. But there is no way you can discount the threat posed by Nadal and federer. Plus I feel like Del PO is going to build on his successes so far getting the bronze and now having recovered from his injuries.

[Deano88]

cant seem to find the reason for ferrer's withdrawl atm, sure it will appear on the net soon enough!
Figured I spend enough of my time reading this forum recently I may as well sign up!

Indeed Deano, good to have you on here

Who do you support?

tennis wise definfatly a federer man, Ill admit that im more in the dislike camp murray wise, although I was slightly upset to see him win the US couldnt really argue after how he played all week!

[Mad for Chelsea]

I think it's very poor that Tokyo isn't shown anywhere until the Thursday TBH. This is an ATP 500 event, not a Challenger tour...

Murray with 12 of the first 13 points to lead 3-0 against Lacko. Earlier today, Tipsarevic recovered from losing the first set to knock out Simon, and Monaco cruised past Dimitrov for the loss of only three games. Wawrinka eventually saw off Chardy 6-7 7-6 7-5.

[CaledonianCraig]

Murray currently ripping Lukasz Lacko apart leading 5-0 in the first set.

[Deano88]

In Beijing Melzer beat Dolgopolov and Marius Copil(?) Ill admit I dont know anything about him. One the first set agaisnt Florian Mayer
7 aces and 100% or FSP won!

[CaledonianCraig]

Lacko gets his first game on the board to trail 5-1.

[Deano88]

easy for Murray 6-1 in 25mins

[The Special Juan]

Bit of a mismatch. Stan the Man up next for Murray.

[sirfredperry]

Djoko also through in straight sets but I see from the stats that he did drop a couple of service games.
Wonder if Ferrer has been overdoing it in an effort to get fourth ranking in Rafa's absence. The really big points come at the O2 so he will want to be fit for that.
As for 2013, assuming Rafa is fit it will probably be yet another year when the same four occupy the top four places. What order they're in will be the intriguing bit.

[slashermcguirk]

Pretty routine straight set wins for Murray and Djokovic today. tougher tests to follow but must be in decent form. Cant be easy after a break away from the game.

I think i mentioned before that i was going to O2 this year for first time for world tour finals, very excited about it. Since Nadal is not taking part, am I right in saying Tipsarevic will be there instead unless something strange happens over coming weeks. I would have thought its likely to be in Nadals absence:

Djokovic
Federer
Murray
Ferrer
Berdych
Del Potro
Tsonga
Tipsarevic

Anybody else likely to break in there?

[lydian]

Hopefully not Monaco (nice guy but dont like his game)

[slashermcguirk]

Trying to think in order who I would like to see at O2, probably in this order:

Djokovic, Federer, Del Potro, Tsonga, Murray, Tipsarevic, Berdych, Ferrer

Strangely, I actually quite like Ferrer but not a huge fan of his style of the game, really admire his consistency though and how he really gets the most out of his game. Would be curious to see just how hard Del Potro and Berdych crush the ball.

As for pairings, ideally would like to see Federer vs Djokovic or Djokovic vs Murray but I think Federer vs Del Potro would also be good.

I am not picky though.

[bogbrush]

I remain pretty convinced Novak will be year end number 1. And whilst Murray's maiden win and Olympic gold and Rogers SW19 win and return to no.1 may be the most box office achievements, I think Novak's consistency will mean he deserves it.

He's lost a lot of bigger matches this year and that will disappoint him, and no doubt he'll be looking at ways to get back on top of those matches in 2013.... But he has been by a mile the most impressive in getting to those semi and final matches. He has by and large destroyed the field below the top guys.

2013 looks so intriguing. Novak will be looking to get 'it' back, Murray looking to maintain 'it', Roger to stun us all by reproducing it and Rafa fighting to find his way back. It's going to be fascinating to see who is most successful.

Tellingly, no prospects of anyone else shaking it up.

Again.

[lydian]

Yes its interesting amongst the top 4 and their intra-dynamic, but what about beyond them!

[socal1976]

Yes its interesting amongst the top 4 and their intra-dynamic, but what about beyond them!

There is plenty behind them the growth of these 4 behemoths especially fed and Nadal has sucked much of the glory away from them. I find today's players pretty much ranked within the top 50 to be for the most part of exceptional quality and athleticism. I bet you a pretty penny that Raonic is top 8 next year. And top 5 within 2-3 years.

[lydian]

I personally find alot of the younger players interesting to track and follow...hence my comments on IMBLs youngsters thread. My point is kind of why just focus on the top 4...but I guess thats the nature of many sports...and particularly tennis when the Big4 are dominating everything.
For those that like the game ,uch beyond the top 4 there are threads to follow on that...GB tennis, young players, and current tournaments. Lets keep the discussions flowing...

[Danny_1982]

Yes there's not much threat coming from outside of the top 4, but then has there ever been a world class world number 6 or 7? Apart from when great players are on their way down I doubt it has happened that often.

But essentially BB yes, the intrigue comes from the top 4 and the only really interesting thing is whether DP or Raionic can threaten them.

[lydian]

The rankings are a myopic way of looking at tennis strength in principle.

If we had 4 very different surfaces at slams that specialists needed to win the rankings might have some clay guy who reached RG final down at #15-20. But we dont see that happen now. The uniformity of playing styles means the rankings are a reflection of who is going deep week to week at the moment, we dont see any surprises anymore and this makes the tour a little more predictable.

[socal1976]

Yes there's not much threat coming from outside of the top 4, but then has there ever been a world class world number 6 or 7? Apart from when great players are on their way down I doubt it has happened that often.

But essentially BB yes, the intrigue comes from the top 4 and the only really interesting thing is whether DP or Raionic can threaten them.

Precisely, Danny if you go back and look at players who traditionally are ranked in the 6-10 slots they are not giants. Yes you can cherry pick attractive looking top 10s when a player like Agassi was ranked #8 or Sampras was ranked lower down than his natural ranking. But in general these guys are players that are expected to get to the quarters of slams and give a good showing. In no way in this era where you have as consistent and dominant of top 4 are you going to have sparkling results from these guys, that is why they aren't really consistently in the running at slams. Think about this way in this era we have had unprecedented consistency and focus from the top 4 guys for one of the second tier top ten guys to win a slam in many cases he will have to beat 3/4ths of the big 4 in 3 consecutive five set matches. That just isn't going to happen very often or ever that should not be how you judge the strength of this period.

Like I said the younger guys just need some seasoning and they will make their bones. Raonic i would be surprised if he wasn't top 8 next year, for certain top 10.

[laverfan]

Baggy beats Monaco under the watchful eye of one Mr. Rosewall.

[Sponsored content]