Super XV Week 7 Preview

The 2012 Super XV has now played 6 rounds, and already some trends are evident. Defences have tightened up, with few 4-try bonus points being scored. Matches are proving close, with almost 70% of matches decided by 7 points or less. The injury rate has been horrendous, especially in the backs. The Lions, Reds, Blues, Highlanders and Rebels have all been hard-hit by injuries to key players.

As in 2011 the Australian franchise appears to be the “easiest”. Thus far no Australian team has won outside of Australia in 6 matches, while in 6 home matches against non-Australian sides the score is 3-3. By contrast against foreign opposition the New Zealand franchises have won 5 out of 6 at home, and 4 out of 7 away while the South African franchises have 4 out of 7 at home and 3 out of 6 away.

Here is Pete Cresswell’s take on the Easter matches:

Points Table
Australian Conference

Position	Team	Played	Wins	Losses	Draws	Byes	Points For	Points Against	Points Difference	Bonus Points	Total
1	Brumbies	5	3	2	0	1	124	124	0	2	18
2	Reds	6	3	3	0	0	120	180	-60	1	13
3	Waratahs	6	2	4	0	0	140	143	-3	5	13
4	Western Force	6	2	4	0	0	151	169	-18	4	12
5	Rebels	5	1	4	0	1	93	151	-58	2	10

New Zealand Conference

Position	Team	Played	Wins	Losses	Draws	Byes	Points For	Points Against	Points Difference	Bonus Points	Total
1	Highlanders	6	5	1	0	0	156	122	34	2	22
2	Chiefs	5	4	1	0	1	131	91	40	2	22
3	Crusaders	5	3	2	0	1	113	103	10	2	18
4	Hurricanes	6	3	3	0	0	183	177	6	4	16
5	Blues	5	1	4	0	1	103	124	-21	2	10

South African Conference

Position	Team	Played	Wins	Losses	Draws	Byes	Points For	Points Against	Points Difference	Bonus Points	Total
1	Stormers	5	5	0	0	1	125	91	34	0	24
2	Bulls	5	3	2	0	1	170	89	81	4	20
3	Sharks	6	3	3	0	0	143	135	8	5	17
4	Cheetahs	6	2	4	0	0	168	194	-26	4	12
5	Lions	5	1	4	0	1	107	134	-27	2	10

Matches:
Matches:
Rebels vs Blues
The weekend opens with the battle of the cellar-dwellers. The Blues have had a bye week to lick their wounds and will be looking to try and resurrect a season that should have seen them excelling given their off-season recruitment. The Rebels have a stellar backline when all are fit, but Cipriani, O’Connor, Beale and co simply have not had enough ball to work with.

Piri Weepu is relegated to the bench after starting at first five-eighth last time out for the Blues, with Pat Lam preferring Alby Mathewson and Gareth Anscombe in the halves. Rene Ranger returns from suspension on the wing and Keven Mealamu from injury to bolster the side, while Rudi Wulf and Lachie Munro swap positions at wing/fullback. The long term injury news is bleaker though, with Isaia Toeva opting for season-ending surgery on a hip and Anthony Boric’s neck ruling him out until at least the end of May. The Saili brothers (Peter and Francis) have been stood down for two weeks due to a breach of team protocol in South Africa so flanker Dan Pryor comes onto the bench from the Blues’ Wider Training Group.

For the Rebels former Blues flanker Tom Chamberlain has been ruled out of Thursday’s match with concussion, and he is replaced by English import Michael Lipton who has been out with a back injury. In the backs Danny Cipriani and Laclan Mitchell return to the side from injury, while ex-Auckland Warrior Cooper Vuna misses a return “home” due to suspension. James O’Connor moves out to 12 to accommodate Cipriani.

The Blues’ pack have the class to win this one, despite their woeful run of form. Blues by 12.


Hurricanes vs Sharks
We go from 15th vs 14th to a true mid-table match this week with the 8th placed Hurricanes hosting the 7th placed Sharks on Good Friday in New Plymouth, with the winner having a chance to move into the all-important top 6. The Hurricanes have exceeded expectations so far this season, with Mark Hammett instilling a team ethos after shedding a number of stars from last season. On the other hand the Sharks had recruited well and were expected to give the Stormers and Bulls a real challenge in the South African conference. Good Friday is traditionally a “dry” day in New Zealand (most shops and all pubs are shut, similar to Easter Sunday in the UK) so if the stadium has secured a “special event” liquor license may have the only beer in Taranaki.

Victor Vito is out of the match with a calf strain so Jack Lam returns to the starting lineup with Faifili Levave moving to 8. Jason Eaton earns a start, one of five Taranaki players in the starting fifteen. Tim Bateman starts at 12 after a rest last week.

The Sharks have been forced into two changes to the team who won in Canberra last week. Bismark du Plessis starts on the bench after passing a late fitness test following a quadricep strain in training, with Craig Burden earning his first Sharks start. Louis Ludik starts on the wing in place of Odwa Ndungane who is returning to South Africa due to a groin strain. Last week’s late withdrawal Patrick Lambie is still unavailable, so Frenchman Frederic Michalak retains the 10 jersey.

The bookmakers like the Sharks this week, and so do I. Sharks by 5.


Reds vs Brumbies
The injury-stricken Reds return to Brisbane after their “road trip from hell”, conceding 133 points in 3 matches this week to face a Brumbies side stung by a narrow home loss to the Sharks. This match sees the top two sides in the Australian conference play off.

The Reds have not yet named a side for the match, though it is likely that 4th choice fly-half Dallan Murphy will start again.

The Brumbies have their own injury worries with fly-half Matt Toomua ruled out for the season, meaning that Christian Lealiifano and Pat McCabe move in to play 10 and 12. Nic White starts at half back after scoring late against the Sharks to secure a bonus point. The Brumbies are still lacking “names”, with a large chunk of their squad having moved from Queensland in search of game time.

Home advantage decides this one for me, Red by 6.


Western Force vs Chiefs
The Chiefs stop off in Perth on the way to South Africa to face a Force team buoyed by their win over the defending champions last week. The Chiefs are having their best start to the season in years, sitting comfortably in a playoff spot, but have a tough three weeks of touring ahead.

The Force are yet to name a team for the match. They have signed ex-Brumbies and Waratahs scrum half Josh Holmes from Bourgoin for the rest of the season to replace the injured Justin Turner. Inspirational skipper David Pocock will be the key man for them again.

The Chiefs are almost at full strength as they hit the road. Leila Masaga and Mahroni Schwalger return to the starting fifteen as the Hamilton-based side seeks to extend their four match winning streak. Sonny Bill Williams has been on fire lately and with All Blacks Aaron Cruden and Richard Kahui around him he will take some stopping.

The bookies have the Chiefs as overwhelming favourites to continue the Australian teams’ horror season. Chiefs by 10.


Highlanders vs Stormers
The Stormers head to the deep South this week for a top-of-the-table clash with the Highlanders.

For the Highlanders, half-back Jimmy Cowan is poised to become the second player, and the first Southlander to notch up 100 matches, following Marlborough-born Otago hooker Anton Oliver. Cowan started on the bench last week behind the in-form Aaron Smith however, so he may well be waiting nervously for a call from Jamie Joseph. The Highlanders also signed ex-Highlander and Chief Mike Delaney from Japan for the remainder of the season as cover at first five-eighth with Colin Slade out for the season. The loose forward pairing of James Haskell and Adam Thompson could be crucial.

The Stormers have only made one change to the side that beat the Bulls in Cape Town last week, with tighthead Frans Malherbe starting, swapping places with Brok Harris who moves to the bench. Andries Bekker anchors a strong lineout, so if skipper Jean De Villiers can spark his exciting outside backs this could be a cracking match. The Stormers have a tough tour down under, facing the Crusaders next week before meeting the Reds and Force on their way home. These four games will be crucial to their home semi-final chances.

This is my tip for match of the round, and I’ll back the home team to shade it. Highlanders by 5.


Cheetahs vs Lions
The Cheetahs return home after a successful tour down under to face the injury ravaged Lions. This presents an ideal opportunity for the Pretoria side to pick up their first home win, and extend their competition lead over the Lions. The wooden spoon winner in the South African conference could well lose their competition spot to the Southern Kings next season, so the pressure is on.

The Cheetahs have officially lost inspirational captain Juan Smith for the year, without him getting near the playing field. In the only change to the team which won in Wellington Ashley Johnson earns a start on the flank opposite Heinrich Brussow with Justin Downey dropping to the bench.

By contrast John Mitchell has made 9 changes to his starting fifteen for the weekend. In some good news for the team Elton Jantjes is back from injury at 10, meaning Butch James moves out to 12, and Jaco Taute drops to fullback. Skipper Josh Strauss is back at 8, while 19 year old rookie Paul Willemse becomes the sixth lock to start for the Lions this season. Martin Bezuidenhout gets a start at hooker as John Mitchell tries to find solutions in the line out.

The Lions picked up a narrow win at home in the reverse fixture early in the season, before their injury crisis so my money is on the Cheetahs. Cheetahs by 10.


Bulls vs Crusaders
In one of the competition’s traditional grudge matches Super Rugby’s most successful team travel to Pretoria to face the second-most successful. It also pits 5th (Bulls) versus 6th (Crusaders) on the table. Don’t miss this one folks!

Frans Ludeke has shown faith in the 22 who lost narrowly in Cape Town last weekend, retaining the starting fifteen and bench. Captain Pierre Spies will have his work cut out in a mouth watering clash with Kieran Read, while the halves pairing of Francois Hougaard and Morne Steyn are in form. Regular starting hooker Willie Wepener is expected to be out for at least three weeks due to a virus.

Dan Carter takes up the kicking duties for the Crusaders this weekend after a couple of weeks of being eased back into rugby after his long lay off. Meanwhile back in New Zealand Richie McCaw had the screws removed from his foot this week and could be as little as two weeks away from a return to action. With Carter kicking goals Tom Taylor drops to the bench in a straight swap with Ryan Crotty at 12.

The Bulls are always tough to beat at home, and the Crusaders have now spent two weeks at altitude, will they be fully acclimatised? The bookies are tipping a narrow Bulls win, which my head agrees with even if my heart doesn’t. Bulls by 4.

Bye:
Waratahs

Aussie conference looking by far the weakest.........






















Again..........................

Ozzy3213 wrote:Aussie conference looking by far the weakest.........






















Again..........................

No need to run Pete, they won't catch you

Stormers 39 hurricanes 26
Lions 28 hurricanes 30
Western force 19 hurricanes 46
Brumbies 24 cheetahs 23
highlanders 18 waratahs 17
Bulls 23 blues 29
Chiefs 29 Brumbies 22
Stormers 27 Blues 17
sharks 27 reds 22
Rebels 26 cheetahs 33
waratahs 34 sharks 30
Crusaders 28 cheetahs 21
Brumbies 33 highlanders 26
bulls 61 Reds 8
Highlanders 43 Rebels 12
Hurricanes 38 cheetahs 47
Chiefs 30 waratahs 13
Brumbies 26 Sharks 29
Lions 13 Crusaders 23

These are the matches between different countries' franchises.

Oz teams at home
won 3/6

Oz teams away
won 0/6

NZ teams home
won 5/6

NZ teams away
won 4/7

SA teams at home
won 4/7

SA teams away
won 3/6

Lions and rebels still seem easy meat.

Blues XV http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/super-rugby/6686707/Weepu-benched-as-Lam-looks-to-spark-Blues

(1st match this weekend is Thursday morning UK time )

And the Rebels team for Thrusday
http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/super-rugby/6687285/Chamberlain-out-of-Rebels-clash-with-Blues

Points table
https://i.servimg.com/u/f42/16/62/60/67/pictur10.png

Spoiler:

I'll try and get this one loaded tonight, I'm out for 90 minutes now so please let me know if anything looks wrong.