Carruthers - Gold Cup

Not sure if anyone fancies a longshot but Carruthers is currently sitting at 66/1 with William Hill.

After his stunning win in the King George VI he's been due a performance, and with an each way bet you can get 16/1 for a place. Worth a couple of quid of anyone's cash!

Any ew value in this years Gold Cup has long gone.The make up of the field has been cast since virtually the start of the season,Long Run,Kauto and before he retired,Denman,were always going to be the first three in the betting,in a perverse sort of way there was probably better value to be had when all three big guns were fit and firing because the layers had the front three in the betting as the the first three home,they would gladly have offered you working mens prices on anything else.With Denmans retirement and Kautos mishap its just given the layers excuses to artificially shorten horses,to take away their place liabilities in effect.Last years affair was as strong a race as weve seen for a while with three real contenders,this years is less so,barring mishaps there really is only one winner(Long Run),Kauto for all hs superb form this season just hasnt looked like a horse that will relish 3m2,twice up the Hill.He was stopping at Haydock in the Betfair and he was paddling through quicksand in the last 100 yds in the King George,the Gold Cup will not be playing to his strengths this year but the layers can put up almost any price about him because they know that people will back him regardless,he is the one in the betting who really does represent no value whatsoever.Outside of the front two we find a real batch of contenders who are very closely matched,i call them the 160 brigade,they are all around the 160 rated mark,in fact if you take Long Run and Kauto away you would have a cracking contest but any value in these has been squeezed.Are the likes of Synchronized,Midnight Chase,Burton Port et al really single figure contenders for chasings Blue Riband?No of course they arent but layers want to take out their place losses.If you fancied any of these then you should have struck your wagers many moons ago.Hindsight is a wonderful thing,the 20s offered on Midnight Chase immediately after his Argento win was the last value bet in this race,he finished fifth last year(beaten 17l),with no Denman around and doubts about Kauto then a reproduction of that effort might get him placed.I cant see anything outside of the handful ive mentioned getting in the same parish,i'm strong on Long Run,i would lay Kauto for ever and a day and if pushed id back Midnight Chase place only.

Cant see Carruthers placing and his price reflects that. Think the Hennessy was his day in the sun and cant see him reproducing that.

Agree with Racingnut about Long Run and Kauto. Cant see anyone stopping Long Run barring a mishap which is more than possible. I just never feel fully comfortable when I've money on him. Been arguing with a mate (one whos very knowledgeable about racing) for weeks that Kauto has no chance. I just dont see how he wins. Gonna back Weird Al ew. Has decent course form looked good in The Charlie Hall and goes well fresh.

Winning the Charlie Hall in recent years is something of a poisoned chalice and whilst the form in itself isnt too bad the proximity of Chicago Grey to the front two probably tells you all that you need to know.It smacked more of a good National trial to me rather than a Gold Cup pointer but you are entitled to your opinion.i think that if he is actually ridden to get placed rather than putting it up to the big two then he isnt without a squeak.