Leinster - v - Ulster in QF????

Just doing my forecasts for final set of games in Heino and if results go way I think they might then we could see Leinster v Ulster in the QF - what a juicy prospect.

I see final pools ending like this

Pool 1 - Saints beat Munster next week with and fear Munster will get no LBP - so Munster win pool with 20pts
Pool 2 - Cardiff & Edinburgh both end up on 21 pts - Cardiff win group because of better head to head with Edinburgh getting one of best runner-up slots
Pool 3 - Leinster finish with 24 or 25 pts and end up as top seed
Pool 4 - Ulster get LBP at Clermont - Clermont win group with 20pts, Ulster get best runner-up slot
Pool 5 - Saracens win at Treviso and win group with 22pts
Pool 6 - Toulouse win group with 22pts, Quins get 20 points but lose out on best runner-up because Ulster and Edinburgh score more tries.

So seedings may go
1 - Leinster
2 - Toulouse
3 - Saracens
4 - Cardiff
5 - Clermont
6 - Munster
7 - Edinburgh
8 - Ulster

and that produces QF - Leinster-Ulster, Toulouse-Edinburgh, Saracens-Munster, Cardiff-Clermont and if that is the case would see 4 home wins

Any thoughts?

I think Quins more than capable of getting a TBP from the Sportsground next week unfortunately so I guess we will just have to go to ASM and win.

Puts Ulster on 24 points, home quarter against ...Munster?

Do rightly!

MrsP wrote:I think Quins more than capable of getting a TBP from the Sportsground next week unfortunately so I guess we will just have to go to ASM and win.

Puts Ulster on 24 points, home quarter against ...Munster?

Do rightly!

Might be tougher than you think to get a tbp there. The Sportsground is probably the coldest windiest rugby pitch in the world (I've been to a few Munster games there....I'm not joking). If its a calm night then its a fair possibility but if the wind gets up there it can be almost impossible to get any momentum going and tries can be very hard to come by.

After our tbp win at Stadium:MK it looks like we'll have Edinbugh at Thomond

Have you been to Ravenhill Red?



And Quins don't like Irish gales.

We were just talking about the time they came to Ravenhill and the wind was so bad we had to evacuate the tempory stand!

We've got a great chance in Montferrand if we believe in ourselves, play our game, work as a team and get a bit of luck

Great performance on Friday. Something to be proud of...but its like someone said on this forum said the before the 1st match....

"To win this group Ulster are probably going to have win away in Leicester or Clermont to top the pool."

Yes, It might have been different if we had prevented the Clermont LBP at Ravenhill AND got one ourselves in Leicester. Then we'd be looking at an LBP in France to seal it.

But the point is that Ulster have it their own hands and with their form, who says a win (or draw) is not possible in France!

Ultimately though, if they don't get at least the LBP, it will be the Amlin challenge, unless one of Lon Irish, Racing, Connacht or even Gloucester do us a favor. As stated, the most likely help will come from the sportsground with Connacht desperate for at least 1 win and knowing they will help Ulster.

Yes, as MrsP wrote, Harlequins could get 5, so again its back to the win required in France...But I think its set up for a Connacht win .
And if that happens, you wouldn't then bet against Ulster winning in France the next day!!! After all....no winning home record ever lasts forever..

MrsP wrote:Have you been to Ravenhill Red?



And Quins don't like Irish gales.

We were just talking about the time they came to Ravenhill and the wind was so bad we had to evacuate the tempory stand!

Lol - I think I remember hearing about that! I was at Ravenhill once about 4-5 years ago. Was a balmy Saturday though but I have heard it can get some pretty hard weather and there is nowhere to hide from it up there. But the Sportsground is far more open and really can like watching a game in the middle of a hurricane. I do think Connacht will put it up to them, I'd like to see them get a little more out of their first HC forray. I also think Quins are looking a little bit jaded. They have had a good run to Xmas but the fixture list was not good to them since then given that they have played all the big AP teams as well as Toulouse in the last 5 weeks.

I would love Connacht even more than I already do if they managed to keep them under 4 tries.

Would love to see Leinster v Ulster in a packed Lansdowne. It would be some atmosphere. Form goes out the window in big regional derbies. In fact the favourites lost, both times Munster and Leinster met in the HEC.

I think Quins will get the TBP and Ulster will be brought down to earth by Clermont. Ulster could do well in the Amlin though.

I think Munster will beat Saints and get a home 1/4.

Just realised.

If brennomac's prediction is correct, could Stringer end up facing Munster?

How weird would that be?

MrsP wrote:Just realised.

If brennomac's prediction is correct, could Stringer end up facing Munster?

How weird would that be?

You could almost script it this will definitely happen And Stringer will probably score the winning try doh

It would be funnier if a Stringer howler handed the game to Munster. Imagine the conspiracy theories.

I think Stringer is back in Munster by the time the QF's go ahead. I believe he is on a 3 month deal which would have him back in Munster by March...then again, I might be wrong.

I don't see why people think Munster will lose to Northampton ... they're the only team in the HEC with a 5 for 0, and winning secures a much tastier prospect of home ties to the final ... that's a lot more to play for. I'm not saying Northampton won't want to beat Munster (who doesn't) , but I don't see past Munster there really.

When two good teams meet, most people tend to presume home advantage will swing it. It normally does. But I wouldn't surprised if Munster won away from home. They've been doing it for years.

I think Leinster will be the only Irish province to win next week sadly.

Would love to see them all win, and 3 home QFs for the boys.

3 Provinces and Toulouse or Sarries in the Semis.

Carlsberg don't do HC Qfs but.......

If the Irish to continue to monopolise and had 3/4 semi finalists and another Irish team went onto win it anyone else feel other unions might be looking to change format of the HEC

This would be a dream QF but unfortunately Ulster are really up against it for a QF spot.

roddersm wrote:This would be a dream QF but unfortunately Ulster are really up against it for a QF spot.

I have to agree. Its going to be very tricky to get anything in Clermont, so we may be looking at help elsewhere to qualify.
That game on friday is about as good as I have ever seen Ulster play.
And if anyone had suggested after that home defeat to Treviso that we would be in this position looking for just an LBP to have a chance of qualifying.. I would have suggested sectioning.

Recently, I've had the feeling that when our boys clicked, someone would be in for a hiding. If they play like that again, I think a win in France is definitely possible. Rattling then in 1st 20 mins will be critical.

When was the last time Ulster got 25 points from a possible 30 and scored 20+ tries in the process?

From what I seen of the Tigers game if Ulster can recreate that sort of game again the I think a LBP is more than possible.

Question is will 20 pts be enough for a runners up spot if thats all they get.

The Blues and Edinburgh are both on 17pts with homes games to come so you have to fancy them to get the home wins which would put them on 21pts at least so thats one runners up slot.

If Clermont win but without a BP and Ulster get a LBP then both will be on 20pts so down to head to head for group winners and ruuner up.

The other match which comes into the equation is the Connacht - Quins game, if Connacht can do Ulster a favour and win then all is ok as they will go through as runner up at worst.

But If Quins win then 3 teams on 20pts, if they win with a BP then they go through as runners up on 21pts (assuming Toulouse beat Gloucester)

Looks pretty wet and windy in Galway this coming Friday.

If nothing else it may well deny Quins a bonus point and that could be crucial.
The Westies may just be desperate to break their HC duck. I honestly believe they will target this match

Poor Connacht...that's a very big ask with the confidence levels they are trying to resurrect at the moment. The HC experience has probably done more harm than good to the side (and I wouldn't often say that). It all came (HC involvement) too close to the forced rebirth imposed by IRFU.

SecretFly wrote:Poor Connacht...that's a very big ask with the confidence levels they are trying to resurrect at the moment. The HC experience has probably done more harm than good to the side (and I wouldn't often say that). It all came (HC involvement) too close to the forced rebirth imposed by IRFU.

Secret,

I have said this a few times with regards to my Region the Dragons. Whilst its great to qualify for the HC I believe our level is the Amlin and likewise Connacht who had good run in it last year or year before.

bedfordwelsh wrote:

SecretFly wrote:Poor Connacht...that's a very big ask with the confidence levels they are trying to resurrect at the moment. The HC experience has probably done more harm than good to the side (and I wouldn't often say that). It all came (HC involvement) too close to the forced rebirth imposed by IRFU.

Secret,

I have said this a few times with regards to my Region the Dragons. Whilst its great to qualify for the HC I believe our level is the Amlin and likewise Connacht who had good run in it last year or year before.

Yeah, probably but it's not as if I'm saying Connacht (or for that matter Dragons!) couldn't rise into natural players in the HC world.

For Connacht I just feel it was absolutely disastrous timing as now most of their better players of a few seasons back are helping out Leinster and Munster keep their leg in both Pro12 and HC. I know it's hard to sustain a 4th competitive Province/Region but a season or two back I don't think the HC experience would have been so traumatic, indeed I think the players they had then would have risen to that challenge and improved through to the Pro12 as a result.

Firstly I have a funny feeling that Connacht could beat Quins, after all the performed damn well at the Stoop. However since that loss they have not done well in HC or Rabo.

So my guess (and i am only running at 70% on sportguru - so will get plenty wrong):

Pool 1 - Saints gain a sliver of revenge on Munster denying them the LBP. Munster win group with 20pts

Pool 2 - Blues and edinburgh both win, bit edinburgh secure a TBP and top group with 22pts.

Pool 3 - Leinster get 5 pts from Montpelier to end on 25pts.

Pool 4 - Clermont to win without TBP, but deny Ulster the LBP. Clermont top group with 20pts (the 12 tries v Aironi sees them seeded ahead of Munster)

Pool 5 - Sarries top pool with 23pts after a TBP win

Pool 6 - Toulouse get a tight win over Glaws and finish on 22pts. qunis get a tight win over Connact to end on 20pts.

1/4 final Draw:

(1) Leinster v (8) Harlequins
(2) Saracens v (7) Cardiff Blues
(3) Toulouse v (6) Munster
(4) Edinburgh v (5) Clermont

Lads,

having spoken to someone who was at the game in Toulouse and travelled with players and fans, it sounds very much like Connacht have really enjoyed the HEC and would very much like to get back there.

I think they gave a very good account of themselves in Toulouse!

Connacht have done themselves and Irish rugby proud in my opinion. If every team played with their enthusiasm and commitment then the rugby world would be a better place !

Pride yes. But you only do what you can anyway, which in their case is fight for your life every time you go onto the field. So yes, pride. But their rhythm has been slaughtered firstly by loosing their players and now by their HC passage. It'll take time for the wounds to repair but Elwood is the kind of guy that will have them emerge like a phoenix again.

bedfordwelsh wrote:From what I seen of the Tigers game if Ulster can recreate that sort of game again the I think a LBP is more than possible.

Question is will 20 pts be enough for a runners up spot if thats all they get.

The Blues and Edinburgh are both on 17pts with homes games to come so you have to fancy them to get the home wins which would put them on 21pts at least so thats one runners up slot.

If Clermont win but without a BP and Ulster get a LBP then both will be on 20pts so down to head to head for group winners and ruuner up.

The other match which comes into the equation is the Connacht - Quins game, if Connacht can do Ulster a favour and win then all is ok as they will go through as runner up at worst.

But If Quins win then 3 teams on 20pts, if they win with a BP then they go through as runners up on 21pts (assuming Toulouse beat Gloucester)

Thanks BfW. First time I have understood this. What happens if 3 teams finish on 20 points is the last piece of the jig saw?

BlueMuff wrote:

bedfordwelsh wrote:From what I seen of the Tigers game if Ulster can recreate that sort of game again the I think a LBP is more than possible.

Question is will 20 pts be enough for a runners up spot if thats all they get.

The Blues and Edinburgh are both on 17pts with homes games to come so you have to fancy them to get the home wins which would put them on 21pts at least so thats one runners up slot.

If Clermont win but without a BP and Ulster get a LBP then both will be on 20pts so down to head to head for group winners and ruuner up.

The other match which comes into the equation is the Connacht - Quins game, if Connacht can do Ulster a favour and win then all is ok as they will go through as runner up at worst.

But If Quins win then 3 teams on 20pts, if they win with a BP then they go through as runners up on 21pts (assuming Toulouse beat Gloucester)

Thanks BfW. First time I have understood this. What happens if 3 teams finish on 20 points is the last piece of the jig saw?

If they are from different pools it goes on number of tries scored.

So If it's Clermont v Cardiff..........

bedfordwelsh wrote:From what I seen of the Tigers game if Ulster can recreate that sort of game again the I think a LBP is more than possible.

Question is will 20 pts be enough for a runners up spot if thats all they get.

The Blues and Edinburgh are both on 17pts with homes games to come so you have to fancy them to get the home wins which would put them on 21pts at least so thats one runners up slot.

If Clermont win but without a BP and Ulster get a LBP then both will be on 20pts so down to head to head for group winners and ruuner up.

The other match which comes into the equation is the Connacht - Quins game, if Connacht can do Ulster a favour and win then all is ok as they will go through as runner up at worst.

But If Quins win then 3 teams on 20pts, if they win with a BP then they go through as runners up on 21pts (assuming Toulouse beat Gloucester)

Trying to work this one out in my head but if Ulster get to within 4 points of Clermont and subsequently lose with LBP, but no TBP for Clermont does this mean that they go through on head to head record or am I just making it up in my head... Consider the previous game was 16-11?

Tries between the team takes precedence over scores between the teams.

This means:

If Ulster lose by 1 to 4 points they must score as many tries as Clermont
If Ulster lose by 5 to 7 points they must score more tries than Clermont
If Ulster lose by more than 8 points they must score 4 tries or more and Clermont must score 3 tries or less

Are you still with me

geoff998rugby wrote:Tries between the team takes precedence over scores between the teams.

This means:

If Ulster lose by 1 to 4 points they must score as many tries as Clermont
If Ulster lose by 5 to 7 points they must score more tries than Clermont
If Ulster lose by more than 8 points they must score 4 tries or more and Clermont must score 3 tries or less

Are you still with me

No....






I get what you mean Geoff... Both teams have scored one try so if Ulster were to score 1 and Clermont 2 but Ulster were within 4 points then Clermont would go through by virtue of having scored more tries in the head to head? God it can be confusing sometimes!

So basically they have to go out and win!

Oh and any news on Cave?

geoff998rugby wrote:Tries between the team takes precedence over scores between the teams.

This means:

If Ulster lose by 1 to 4 points they must score as many tries as Clermont
If Ulster lose by 5 to 7 points they must score more tries than Clermont
If Ulster lose by more than 8 points they must score 4 tries or more and Clermont must score 3 tries or less

Are you still with me

So make the calculations easier. Go and win it.

Exactly secretfly. Just win. Do that and you'll get a home quarter.

LondonTiger wrote:

(1) Leinster v (8) Harlequins
(2) Saracens v (7) Cardiff Blues
(3) Toulouse v (6) Munster
(4) Edinburgh v (5) Clermont

I cannot see a match against Leinster away going well for us . Seem to remember last time that happened we tried to cheat, failed anyway and got disgraced in front of the whole world.

The computations just show that there is still a hell of a lot to play for this weekend

LondonTiger wrote:Firstly I have a funny feeling that Connacht could beat Quins, after all the performed damn well at the Stoop. However since that loss they have not done well in HC or Rabo.

So my guess (and i am only running at 70% on sportguru - so will get plenty wrong):

Pool 1 - Saints gain a sliver of revenge on Munster denying them the LBP. Munster win group with 20pts

Pool 2 - Blues and edinburgh both win, bit edinburgh secure a TBP and top group with 22pts.

Pool 3 - Leinster get 5 pts from Montpelier to end on 25pts.

Pool 4 - Clermont to win without TBP, but deny Ulster the LBP. Clermont top group with 20pts (the 12 tries v Aironi sees them seeded ahead of Munster)

Pool 5 - Sarries top pool with 23pts after a TBP win

Pool 6 - Toulouse get a tight win over Glaws and finish on 22pts. qunis get a tight win over Connact to end on 20pts.

1/4 final Draw:

(1) Leinster v (8) Harlequins
(2) Saracens v (7) Cardiff Blues
(3) Toulouse v (6) Munster
(4) Edinburgh v (5) Clermont

I would definitely take that draw!

Me too - I'd be happy for Edinburgh to have a French team visiting them at Murrayfield. That would certainly maximise what would be slim chances.

Ulster can top the group with a LBP so they have a fair chance of going through. They should go to win though by pressurising the Clermont pack and relying on Ruan to kick the points.

Connacht should want Ulster to qualify for the quarters as it gives them a slightly better chance of getting in the HEC again next year. They've already shown they can compete with the AP teams and it will be very difficult for Quins to get a win never mind a TBP. I wouldn't rule out Glaws chances at home against Toulouse either, as they don't have the air of invincibility they had.

The Blues game against Racing is also interesting as they are expected to win, and that's just the time when they can fluff their lines. Edinburgh too with the winning line in sight and no experience of getting there could make heavy weather of LI.

I'm just going to assume all the other results will go against us (I actually think that is the most likely outcome anyway) and so content myself that we have to go there and win.

If things don't work out then so (Amlin) be it!

But a win is what we must go after.

1) Leinster 25pts
2) Edinburgh 22pts (18+ tries)
3) Toulouse 22 pts (15/16 tries)
4) Sarries 22 pts (13/14 tries)
5) Munster 21 pts
6) Clermont/Ulster 20 pts
7) Blues 21 pts
8) Clermont/Ulster 20 pts (higher try count than quins)

There are quite a few potential bolters though, Connacht, Glaws, Treviso and Munster could all potentially sneak a win/draw and no one is guaranteed a T/L BP so things may well look very different come Sunday evening.

Would love if Clermont and Toulouse met each other and one had to go out.

Feckless Rogue wrote:Would love if Clermont and Toulouse met each other and one had to go out.

Aww that's just put another wonderful thought into my head... If Ulster get top of the group, their most likely opponents if they don't win the group are Toulouse or Sarries at home...

Leinster 24
Munster 24
Saracens 23
Ulster 23
Toulouse 22
Edinburgh 21
Cardiff 21
Quins 20

Blues vs Clermont



Clermont are going to win it this year - you heard it here first.

If Clermont get a home QF and SF they could win, but they've never won in Ireland, they're just not the same team on the road, wouldn't fancy their chances if they've to travel.

Ulster 50 -1 to win the HC.....

If Ulster beat Clermont those odds will plummet like a stone!

Can Clermont get a home quarter Mickado? The max points they can get is 21.


Just want to avoid Leinster. Ideally Clermont too.

I am starting to believe....An English team has always won at Twickenham....

beshocked wrote:Ulster 50 -1 to win the HC.....

If Ulster beat Clermont those odds will plummet like a stone!

Can Clermont get a home quarter Mickado? The max points they can get is 21.


Just want to avoid Leinster. Ideally Clermont too.

I am starting to believe....An English team has always won at Twickenham....

A very brief scan of the pools suggests that they can in theory get a home QF, but they’d need a LOT of results to go their way. Virtually at least one game in each group. So I’d say they’re unlikely to get a home draw. Which is good for the rest of us, but potentially they could draw Cardiff or Edinburgh away, which I’m sure they’d fancy.

although I would like to see Clermont go through, I'd really hate to see another french affair in the QFs. Rather see Clermont playing away in Dublin than in Toulouse for the sake of HC interest.
would both toulouse and clermont win this weekend, there is probably 50% of it happening though (depending of what munster does and potential TBPs elsewhere).