Simon Reed: "Federer and Kvitova to triumph in Australia"

By Eurosport | Simon Reed – Mon, Jan 9, 2012 15:49 GMT






The Australian Open is always a very difficult Grand Slam to predict, because it is the first of the season and the conditions are fairly unique.
On the men's side, Roger Federer has to be the favourite with Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic close behind; meanwhile, Petra Kvitova can win the women's title with Serena Williams also in contention.
Djokovic will be an unknown quantity this year and it will be very interesting to see if he can match his intensity and focus from last season.
The most important issue is whether the Serb can replicate that form, and I have a hunch that his motivation may not be 100 per cent. I could be proved wrong on that, but I expect some kind of regression.
Before last year, Djokovic was not the best competitor: he would lose matches that he should have won because the top players would have the edge on him. That all changed in 2011.
I suspect that Federer will usurp Djokovic in 2012, and I expect the Swiss to come very close to his dominant best from four or five years ago.
For me, Murray and Djokovic have to be considered joint second favourites behind Federer, with a big question mark over Rafael Nadal.
Murray has shown superb form coming in to the tournament with victory in Brisbane and a new coach in Ivan Lendl in his corner; that has been an undoubted fillip.
There will always be some who say that Nadal has to be a favourite, but he has not looked himself for some time now, and even his success at Roland Garros last season did not see him playing his best tennis.
There are a few other players who are showing very good form: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Juan Martin Del Potro, with Gael Monfils only being let down by his lack of consistency.
I predict that Federer will be triumphant in Melbourne, and even the introduction of Lendl to Murray's camp, is not enough to see him beat the Swiss master.
On the women's side, I cannot see past either Kvitova or Serena for success.
The Australian media will be hyping up Samantha Stosur's prospects, but I think Francesca Schiavone's assessment that the US Open champion is struggling to cope with the pressure is pretty accurate.
Stosur is a very fine player, and I was extremely impressed with her victory at Flushing Meadows; but I cannot see her progressing past the semi-finals with the extreme pressure on her shoulders.
If she doesn't get past the quarter finals it will be regarded as a great public letdown, and you have to feel for her in the circumstances.
I hear that Serena is training like a beast at the moment, so reports of her still struggling with injury should be given very short shrift. The American is looking very good, and will be extremely dangerous.
While Serena can never be ruled out, I make Kvitova the favourite because of her incredible strength and power around the court.
The Czech showed supreme ability to win the WTA Championships to end last season, and it was the guile and intelligence she demonstrated which most impressed me.
When Kvitova won Wimbledon it was mostly down to brute strength and her enormous firepower, but she has since shown that she can mix up her game to good effect.
Kim Clijsters is an unknown quantity because of her latest injuries, and the Belgian has to be an outsider for the tournament given her spate of problems.
There is no doubt in my mind that Clijsters — as the defending champion — would be firmly in contention had it not been for her bad luck, but she really would be a long shot.
The Australian Open is my favourite event to attend and to work at given the conditions and open access to the players, and I'm very much looking forward to bringing the event to Eurosport again.

Some still read Reed?

Was it him who burried Federer carrier in 2009?

Everyone likes to crystal ball gaze including the pundits. Even Borg does it...

The guy's a bloody idiot. After the US Open he wrote an article saying Djokovic was definitely the greatest player of all time and that he would win atleast 15 slams in the next few years. http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/blogs/simon-reed/djokovic-greatest-player-ve-ever-seen-6938.html

He's an absolute plonker. Don't get me wrong Fed could win the AO but it doesn't change the fact Reed is clueless.

As I always say whenever Mr Reed is brought up...I much preferred his brother. There was a guy that when he opened his mouth people listened. Amazing how 2 brothers can have such a difference in gravitas and charisma.

"The Curse of Reedie" - Well that counts Roger out!

But Simon is right!!!...oh wait

"Djokovic is an unknown quantity this year..."

I stopped reading after this ridiculous line..

What a fool!

So the reigning world number 1 (by a country mile) and the holder of three of the four slams is now an unknown quantity?

Someone finish him off pleeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaase.

Is he S_A by any chance?



emancipator - intergalactic tennis historian and world's foremost expert on trees, leaves, grass and paper.

Methinks Reed may been a bit (or more than a bit) inebriated when he penned this latest piece.

Is this the key to get noticed? Right an awful piece that borders on being completely delusional but provokes just enough of a debate???
oy veyyy

If he thinks the great Fed will thrash Djoko this year, then Fed will take 3 slams easy, only get to thrash a jaded Nadal and pick up a 4th, ransack the medals at the Olympics and he can retire on a Golden Slam year.

Simples.

Reed, you numpty.

(god, I hope he's wrong)

Have to say, I've often defended the much criticised Reed. However, how anyone can make Fed the favourite over Noel when he has a suspect back is beyond me

What gets me is that there is no logic to his decision. It's as though he watched the O2 - forgot that the three main rivals were, in order, carrying an injury, carrying an injury and out of form and out with an injury

And the only way that Fed will match his form of, say 2005 (a few years back) is if someone can clone that model, 'Alien Resurrection' style!!

For me Nole and Murray will have to be pretty ordinary for the eventual winner not to be one of them. If anyone thinks this is a bit rum, given Murray's final record - well he and Nole were the best hard court players last year when on form

However, given the closeness of the three and the fact that Fed has almost given himself an excuse - you never know

LuvSports! wrote:Is this the key to get noticed? Right an awful piece that borders on being completely delusional but provokes just enough of a debate???
oy veyyy

Take it you weren't a fan of v1?

He tends to go by the form book. I can't see the harm in that. He could possibly word it better. Have to see the extent of Nadal and Federer's niggles. Djokovic will start strong favourite. Depending on how he plays I can't see anyone changing their minds on him.

Yep. Whoever beats Nole has a great chance of winning (assuming no opening rounds shocks!!)