Aviva Premiership 2011/12 - The Final Table

Not that I have been at all bored this evening (absolute shoite on the telly!!!), but if you substitute Leeds Carnegie for Worcester Warriors, and this seasons remaining fixtures go the same way as the games between the teams last season, then the Aviva Premiership table will finish up looking like this .....

..............................W.....Pts
Saracens.................17.....72
Harlequins................14.....66
Leicester Tigers........13.....66
Gloucester...............13.....64
London Irish.............11.....63
Northampton Saints..12......56
Bath Rugby..............10.....50
Exeter Chiefs...........10......49
London Wasps..........10.....49
Sale Sharks..............9......44
Worcester Warriors....4......26
Newcastle Falcons.....4......24

So that would be Saracens vs. Gloucester and Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers in the play off semi finals.

So here are my questions.

1. Can anybody see the table finishing up like this?
2. Would you be happy if your team finished in this position?
3. If this did happen, who do you fancy would win the whole thing?

My answers to those questions are...

1. I'd be suprised. I think Saints are stronger than Gloucester and Irish, and I would have them up in the fourth spot. Other than that the teams are all so close, I wouldn't really be that surprised.

2. As a London Irish supporter, I would actually have mixed emotions of it finished this way. Whilst 5th place, given our financial position and squad limitations would definitely represent an over achievement, the fact that we would have fallen short of the play offs by such a small margin would leave me wondering what might have been (had Hape not given a last minute penalty agaisnt Bath, or had the ball bounced more kindly for Ojo in the last minute at Kingsholm, or had we not just left 5 points out there with the boot in a 4 defeat by Saracens).

Having said that it would Heineken Cup rugby assured next year, and a good learning experience for the youngsters in the squad. Overall, I would be very happy.

3. Would have to be Saracens to retain their crown for me. I couldn't see Gloucester going to Vicarage Road and winning a semi final, and once at Twickenham, I think the Fez Heads would be very tough to beat indeed.

1. Can anybody see the table finishing up like this?

No. Games rarely just flow as previously as you have described. The Tigers will be higher than third and the Saints higher than sixth.

I can now see Quins holding on to top spot (depending I guess on how many players they lose to 6Ns). Certainly them and Sarries look set for home semis as we speak.

After that many teams are in the mix, but I struggle to see Glaws getting so many points to go down.with their current form.

My gut feel says:

Quins v Tigers
Sarries v Saints

And Falcons

Agree with the Tiger, Saints, Quins, Tigers & Sarries although no idea in what order. Being a Saints fan I'm hoping it's not away at Welford Road

Think the Warriors are better than the Falcons this year so can see Newcastle having a 're-building season' 2012/2013.

I can't see Falcons getting anywhere near off bottom this time round sadly. I seem to recall Leeds having a stinking run second half, Worcester just seem a little more battle hardened to let that happen.

Think you could swap Saints into 4th and Irish/Gloucester battling it out for 5th.

Love to see Quins keep this form up mind

Of course I would be very pleased if that was the table at the end. It won't be like that if we don't improve. The two matches vs Quins could prove decisive. The advantage is that most of the toughest away fixtures are out of the way.

Where will the 8 losses for Quins come from? Can't see them losing that many. I can only account for 4 possibly - Saracens twice, Leicester at home, Saints away.

Leicester still have to play Quins,Saracens and Saints away. It wouldn't be out of the question if they lost those 3.

Where do the wins and losses come from?

beshocked, without going through the fixtures again I can't remember where the losses come, but as I said in the OP this would be how the table would finish if this seasons remaining fixtures go the same way as the games between the teams last season.

Off the top of my head it's not 8 defeats for Quins, as they have a couple fo draws in there as well.

Ozzy just pure stats wise I can't see Quins only winning 4 out of 12 matches. In contrast Saracens winning 9 out of 12 is a lot. We are certainly capable of that but it won't be easy.

Also I cannot see Gloucester winning 9 out of 12.

Agreed beshocked.

This is why I now feel Quins will maintain top spot and Sarries come second. Of course it does not really matter whether you are first or second.

After that there is a mass bunfight for the other two spots. I feel that Saints and tigers have enough quality to secure the points needed - but if any team manages to go on a decent winning streak they could secure a playoff spot. No reason why Exeter cannot do what Bristol did a few years ago.

LondonTiger I think that's a fair assessment. I think Saints and Tigers will be in the top 4.

Can't see Gloucester,Bath,London Irish,Exeter or other sides as realistic challengers for the playoff spots unless one builds up a serious win streak.

I don't think any of them will personally.

Saracens don't care about top spot. The focus is a home semi.

Quins and Sarries have healthy buffers.

Personally I would be delighted if we are in the mix for top 4.

I will be happy if we get a top 6 position to be honest as we are in HEC next year then.

But we have got some very hard games coming up and there is a long way to go yet.

I'm dreading the 6N (from a Tiggers perspective) how many players are we going to lose again!?

MT,

Have you not seen the various squads selected by 606ers. Looks like we will only lose Castro and Youngs.

And Flood!

While Quins will lose Gray, Marler, Robson, Wallace, Robshaw, Easter, Guest, Care, Lowe and Brown at least.

Luckily we know nothing.

LondonTiger wrote:MT,

Have you not seen the various squads selected by 606ers. Looks like we will only lose Castro and Youngs.

LT,

I would be happy with that pal!

Although I think England would suffer big time!

mmmmm... club v country... club v country...

Wouldn't Leicester lose Cole,Flood and Croft? Possibly Leicester deities Twelvetrees and Parling too?

Based purely on recent international duties we could lose....

Castro (Italy)
Cole
Flood
Youngs
Croft
Deacon
Parling (OK... a big 'if' on this one as he's not fit and missed most of season but was damn good in his international appearances)
Manu
Waldrum
Murphy (Ireland)

That's 10 of our starting XV gone. Which would be a fecking disastor for us.

At the risk of sounding pedantic, Castro and Cole play the same position so can't both be in the starting line up at the same time, so you only lose 9 starters

I'll also be really disappointed if Waldrom is part of the England set up going forward!

by beshocked on Wed Dec 07, 2011 11:01 am

Wouldn't Leicester lose Cole,Flood and Croft? Possibly Leicester deities Twelvetrees and Parling too?

Not if most of the team selections come true. Apparently Leicester players are not good enough and were onlyselected because of a Leicester bias in the coaching panel.

Personally I believe we will lose Cole, Croft, Youngs, Flood & Manu (and maybe Waldrom) to England so they would be unavailable for:
LV Cup v Quins, 28/1
LV Cup v Falcons 4/2
AP v Chiefs, 11/2
AP v Sarries, 19/2
AP v Falcons, 25/2
AP v Gloucester, 3/3

and perhaps rested for match straight after 6Ns - AP v LI, 25/3


Castro may be available for the Sarries and Gloucester matches.

How could I forget M.Tulagi.

True you could see them all missing.

We have Saints and Leicester at home during the 6 nations period. Admittedly both matches are during weeks off.

LondonTiger I only think Waldrom was picked because of bias. The rest of the Tigers made it on merit though Youngs shouldn't have started the Scottish and French games in the world cup.

England players are not automatically available during weeks off. The EPS agreement gives England first call from 12 days before the start right through.
Of course players who do not play could be released when not needed.

Martin Johnson was hopeless not because he is from Leicester. He was hopeless because he was out of his depth. He was inexperienced and not ready. He wasn't helped by being surrounded by inept coaches. Also having the spectre of Rob Andrew hanging over his head like a bad smell didn't help the situation.

Leicester are a very good side. Of course they deserve a healthy representation in the England squad.

It would actually rather face a full strength Saints and Tigers side.

I think Saints still have their work cut out to make the top 4.

Saracens, Tigers and Quins for me.
The one thing that might save Saints is no other team is putting their hand by showing consistancy - both Glaws and Irish seem flakey.

I agree I can only see Falcons going down.

If Saints manage to avoid the distraction of HC knockout phase, they'll finish higher than 6th, probably in playoffs.
Leicester have a lot of points to make up on Quins and Sarries - third is the best they can do, and I suspect maybe lower.
Glaws have stuttered recently, but good setpieces and a wealth of talent in the backs should keep them up there, but 4th may be too much.
Bath - when are they going to start firing on all cylinders? Somewhere mid-table along with Irish, who seem to be missing the likes of Maps and Sarmitage

Exe in 8th again would be somewhat disappointing not to improve in position, but more points than last season would be satisfactory. HC qualification by winning the Amlin would cushion the blow. I think we'll do well to stay in front of Wasps, though.

Sale and Woos seem too strong not to finish ahead of Falcons.

geoff998rugby wrote:I think Saints still have their work cut out to make the top 4.

Saracens, Tigers and Quins for me.
The one thing that might save Saints is no other team is putting their hand by showing consistancy - both Glaws and Irish seem flakey.

I agree I can only see Falcons going down.

Despite their surprising 1 point win over Gloucester (who are showing some terrible form lately) I still haven't seen anything from Newcastle to suggest things are turning a corner at Kingston Park.


Sorry but it's the Championship for them and a couple of years of "rebuilding"

Metal Tiger wrote:Despite their surprising 1 point win over Gloucester (who are showing some terrible form lately) I still haven't seen anything from Newcastle to suggest things are turning a corner at Kingston Park.


Sorry but it's the Championship for them and a couple of years of "rebuilding"

Hopefully GeordieFalcon will tell me that the funding is all pretty solid. However I have a horrible feeling that Falcons could go the way of Orrell and West Hartlepool.

Wouldn't Newcastle get a £2 million parachute payment?

Question for those in the know: Exe have been angling to purchase Britsol's 'P' shares, but of course they can't agree on a price (which must then be set by the RFU/PRL?). Presumably Bris will try to delay everything until the end of this season's championship with them having a decent chance of promotion back to the premiership. If Newcastle drop down, they wouldn't have to sell their 'P' shares for another year, so presumably that would still leave Exe without? Thanks to anyone that knows the answer

beshocked wrote:Wouldn't Newcastle get a £2 million parachute payment?

You get half the amount. The other half going to the promoted team.

The parachute payment, whilst dwarfing the budgets of other Championship teams, still represents a massive drop from the usual share from PRL. Without a significant income from high gates or a benefactor to buffer the loss, there will be significant redundancies, both oin playing and support staff.

Aslong,
good question, but I wouldn't worry - our good friends down at the Mennaye will make sure Bris don't get the promotion. They may also thwart Newcastle's annual dance with demotion if the S4C plans are deemed not to fulfill the entry criteria.

Or their temp move to Plymouth Argyle doesn't come off?

St James Park would be next on their list after Home Park