Djokovic/Federer v Djokovic/Nadal

It's been about 10 days since the USO final. It's now interesting to see the contract of games and pace between the semi and final once the high emotions of live sport have cooled down.

It's quite amazing to see how much slower and longer are the rallies in the final compared to the semi. In the semi final, shots are more purposeful, pacy and better placed in terms of depth and angles which is essentially why it has shorter rallies than the final. Another striking difference is how they handle the short balls. Quickly rushing to it and dispatching it in the corner. On the other hand in the final players see the short ball as an opportunity to make the opponent run from corner to corner instead of attempting the outright winner, as the benefit of keeping the rallies going may pay up at a later stage. And this is exactly what happened. Had Djokovic had his back problem versus Federer he would have been anhilated convincingly but Nadal did not have the weight of shots to exploit the injury. In fact all the hard work of those first 3 sets long rallies were starting to pay off and an injured Djokovic thrashed a cramping Nadal.


Djoko v Nadal - USO 11 Final
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHLwsybX6eg&feature=related

Federer v Djoko - USO 11 Semi final
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EXNc_iMkSIY

Last yar's final was similar and I remember not being able to watch it because it felt sickeningly brutal. Not my kind of tennis.
I am so glad Nole has beaten Nadal 6 times this year, smart play by Novak, very smart.
As for the Federer Novak match, it was better, but sometimes their tennis is too fast for me, it's out of this world. Remember the first set at this year's AO, that was ridiculous!
Federer Nadal match at WTF last year was really good, just the right pace. I saw it live, so maybe that's why it looked quicker, but Federer was sublime, his bakchand was just blissful, I don't know why he doesn't play like that more often against Nadal. Mind you , he did have only one chance at RG but ran out of gas by beating Nole.

Thanks Tenez. Wish I had been able to watch the matches from start to finsh. I am just an observer, ie not a player of much experience. But I enjoyed bits of final too. I did watch the beginning of the third set and was quite thrilled. My position as a fan is very clear, but must say that both matches were great. As you have analysed the final critically, I am sure great debates will take place.

I managed to dig this out...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/dna/h2g2/A74838919

Nadal didn't have much of a chance in this years US final because his serve was off. He had to fight for every point. Of course the rallys were long because Nadal couldn't get an advantage by serving let alone any easy or free points. I'm still not sure how he won that third set.

This years semi was different to the final but so was this years final compared to last years...

Hi Mano - Yes both matches can be enjoyed in their own way, but one has a much more physical factor to it than the other and likewise one has a much better display of technique and natural skills.

noleisthebest wrote:I managed to dig this out...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/dna/h2g2/A74838919

Yes, same match, just different result...thankfully.

hawkeye wrote:Nadal didn't have much of a chance in this years US final because his serve was off. He had to fight for every point. Of course the rallys were long because Nadal couldn't get an advantage by serving let alone any easy or free points. I'm still not sure how he won that third set.

This years semi was different to the final but so was this years final compared to last years...

Rallies were long because both refuse to give easy points away and prefer to sort it with their lungs. A better serve from Nadal would have come back faster in his feet. What this clips show is that Nadal hasn;t got enough pace on his shots, especially on his BH.

The federer-Djoko match was a better match. Both players going for winners at every opportunity. But it is harder to hit winners on Nadal bedcause he stands further back and is faster than Fed and can get to more balls. Interesting Djokovic was able to show that he could play either way and still win. It was a case of taking what the opponent gives you, fed was hugging the baseline and giving Novak a lot of pace to work with so he went for a lot of winners. Nadal was hitting a heavier ball and standing further back thus Djokovic had to win a battle of attrition.

It is quite astonishing to see the effect of match ups in tennis.

Nadal plays Federer and looks great because the high looper to the BH gets him out of jail and given him time; against Djokovic Federer looks a class act because while Djokovic plays great, there's no single play that neutralises the Swiss, and against Djokovic Nadal looks completely out of his depth.

That last match up is the one of the moment of course, and it feels to me like the matches are getting worse for Nadal as the season progresses. The early IW/Miami ones I thought Djokovic was lucky to stay on court for two sets, then on clay he looked better, at Wimbledon it was one-sided and at the USO I thought it was very easy until his tank ran low in the 3rd.

The match to look forward to today is Federer/Djokovic; it brings the best out of Djokovic because he knows he cannot be negative. I just wish the surfaces/balls were a tad quicker to give Federer a better reward for his risk. Maybe the O2 will be another showcase for this.

It's not that Federer can't cope with Nadal's game. It's just that he cannot keep the level for long enough unlike Djokovic.

An interesting stat is that out of 17 matches Nadal won v Federer, 4 had the first set going for Fed. And in another 4 Fed was a break up in the first set, including 2 with set points (Hamburg 08 and FO11). That's 8 matches where had Federer kept on playing his sharper game over the distance may be leading the H2H 16/9 instead of being down 17/8 .

What is clearly impressive with Djoko today is that he clearly can keep rallying the distance with Nadal. He plays without having the rush to go for winners, unlike Federer, and even better doesn't have to play at as good a level than v Federer. He simply can afford to rally and pick his moments to kill the rally without taking too much risk.

On teh other hand Federer as typically expressed in that FO final first set, tries a drop shot at SP instead of getting the rally going to 1 tire Nadal, and 2 find a better time to pull the trigger.

It completely affects his options. This is exactly why he kept losing to guys like Hewitt...until he became fitter.

bogbrush wrote: it feels to me like the matches are getting worse for Nadal as the season progresses.

Quite so - it shows how mental strength is so tied to what you can do technically. Against Fed Nadal has an answer which he knows will work in time and which he has learned to execute very well - he hardly ever panics against Fed and needs to be blown out of the water by consistent excellence to lose. Fed finds it increasingly difficult to manage that - he a faster surface and a best-of-three match gives him his best chance.

At Wimbledon Nadal admitted that Djoko's wins earlier in the season were beginning to play on his mind - he put in a superb effort at the USO and still could not win. He's still a never-say-die merchant, and he's got every other player on tour more or less where he wants them, but against Djoko nothing seems to work. He's got to find something new or it's going to get worse. Unlike Fed he hasn't yet got the option of the ability to play lights out tennis for bursts.

barrystar wrote:

bogbrush wrote: it feels to me like the matches are getting worse for Nadal as the season progresses.

Quite so - it shows how mental strength is so tied to what you can do technically. Against Fed Nadal has an answer which he knows will work in time and which he has learned to execute very well - he hardly ever panics against Fed and needs to be blown out of the water by consistent excellence to lose. Fed finds it increasingly difficult to manage that - he a faster surface and a best-of-three match gives him his best chance.

At Wimbledon Nadal admitted that Djoko's wins earlier in the season were beginning to play on his mind - he put in a superb effort at the USO and still could not win. He's still a never-say-die merchant, and he's got every other player on tour more or less where he wants them, but against Djoko nothing seems to work. He's got to find something new or it's going to get worse. Unlike Fed he hasn't yet got the option of the ability to play lights out tennis for bursts.

I don't think it's Nadal mentality that's the problem - which at least would be in his hands - but worse for him, it's that Djokovic now knows he completely owns Rafa. I think he's walking on court against him feeling about as endangered as he would against Verdasco.

He knows that a Slam match against Federer is a threat; they've played 4 times in the last 5 Slams and he's lost one and faced match points in another two. It's becoming unthinkable that Nadal will push him that hard in a 5 set match.

"I don't think it's Nadal mentality that's the problem - which at least would be in his hands - but worse for him, it's that Djokovic now knows he completely owns Rafa. I think he's walking on court against him feeling about as endangered as he would against Verdasco."
That was hilarious, still....

I watched the YouTube videos. I agree with you Tenez. The match was Roger's to lose and he did lose it spectacularly I think. Great moments.

I didn't get a chance to watch the USO Final '11 but watching those highlights, it's remarkable how ordinary Nadal looks through much of it. He has absolutely no answers. Even when Nadal had his chances in the 2nd set 3rd game, he didn't take them, I think that's pretty much the moment he lost the match mentally.

Ironically, I now think Rafa's best chance of winning a match against Djokovic is a best of 3, he won't win another grand slam match imo.

I am a big Novak fan, and I think from now on Novak will have the advantage over Nadal in every match. But unlike some people I don't think it is such a certainty that Nadal won't win another 5 setter against Djokovic again. I will say that Novak most likely will have a clear advantage and should win the majority of his matches against Nadal from here on out. But lets not completely count out Nadal. But if he does want to have any chance he will have to improve his serve, because right now it seems that Novak can break him almost at will. This was Novak's problem against Nadal about 12 months ago, he could break Nadal effectively and stood up to him and held his own in the baseline exchanges but Nadal used to abuse his serve. Now the tables have turned Novak's serve is back all the tinkering and problems are over, and it is nadal who can't hold serve.

Socal, I partially agree with you. But I am almost certain that Nadal will turn the tables on Novak, soon. I can't see the rivalry as one sided as Roger & Rafa's one. I also think that Roger is going to be back with some bang. He may not reach many finals, but the total slams over the next year or two are going to be more evenly distributed. Interesting times ahead.

socal1976 wrote:I am a big Novak fan, and I think from now on Novak will have the advantage over Nadal in every match. But unlike some people I don't think it is such a certainty that Nadal won't win another 5 setter against Djokovic again. I will say that Novak most likely will have a clear advantage and should win the majority of his matches against Nadal from here on out. But lets not completely count out Nadal. But if he does want to have any chance he will have to improve his serve, because right now it seems that Novak can break him almost at will. This was Novak's problem against Nadal about 12 months ago, he could break Nadal effectively and stood up to him and held his own in the baseline exchanges but Nadal used to abuse his serve. Now the tables have turned Novak's serve is back all the tinkering and problems are over, and it is nadal who can't hold serve.

I am a Novak fan but also a Rafa fan... Strange maybe but true. Nice to read a comment from a Novak fan that isn't totally dismissive of Rafa. IMO neither player "owns" the other. Just as Novak had problems last year (in particular with his serve) Rafa has had problems this year (with injury and fitness and like you say with his serve). IMO neither players game has changed as much as some appear to believe. There is no Djokovicv2! There doesn't need to be as the Djokovicv1 is pretty good. They have always played each other close and I expect and hope they will continue to do so.

hawkeye wrote:

socal1976 wrote:I am a big Novak fan, and I think from now on Novak will have the advantage over Nadal in every match. But unlike some people I don't think it is such a certainty that Nadal won't win another 5 setter against Djokovic again. I will say that Novak most likely will have a clear advantage and should win the majority of his matches against Nadal from here on out. But lets not completely count out Nadal. But if he does want to have any chance he will have to improve his serve, because right now it seems that Novak can break him almost at will. This was Novak's problem against Nadal about 12 months ago, he could break Nadal effectively and stood up to him and held his own in the baseline exchanges but Nadal used to abuse his serve. Now the tables have turned Novak's serve is back all the tinkering and problems are over, and it is nadal who can't hold serve.

I am a Novak fan but also a Rafa fan... Strange maybe but true. Nice to read a comment from a Novak fan that isn't totally dismissive of Rafa. IMO neither player "owns" the other. Just as Novak had problems last year (in particular with his serve) Rafa has had problems this year (with injury and fitness and like you say with his serve). IMO neither players game has changed as much as some appear to believe. There is no Djokovicv2! There doesn't need to be as the Djokovicv1 is pretty good. They have always played each other close and I expect and hope they will continue to do so.

They have only played each other close before Novak got stronger and fitter. Nole really owns Nadal now.

noleisthebest wrote:

hawkeye wrote:

socal1976 wrote:I am a big Novak fan, and I think from now on Novak will have the advantage over Nadal in every match. But unlike some people I don't think it is such a certainty that Nadal won't win another 5 setter against Djokovic again. I will say that Novak most likely will have a clear advantage and should win the majority of his matches against Nadal from here on out. But lets not completely count out Nadal. But if he does want to have any chance he will have to improve his serve, because right now it seems that Novak can break him almost at will. This was Novak's problem against Nadal about 12 months ago, he could break Nadal effectively and stood up to him and held his own in the baseline exchanges but Nadal used to abuse his serve. Now the tables have turned Novak's serve is back all the tinkering and problems are over, and it is nadal who can't hold serve.

I am a Novak fan but also a Rafa fan... Strange maybe but true. Nice to read a comment from a Novak fan that isn't totally dismissive of Rafa. IMO neither player "owns" the other. Just as Novak had problems last year (in particular with his serve) Rafa has had problems this year (with injury and fitness and like you say with his serve). IMO neither players game has changed as much as some appear to believe. There is no Djokovicv2! There doesn't need to be as the Djokovicv1 is pretty good. They have always played each other close and I expect and hope they will continue to do so.

They have only played each other close before Novak got stronger and fitter. Nole really owns Nadal now.

Its not just about strength and fitness. Nole does not "own" Nadal. However I realise I won't be able to convince you of that so we shall just have to wait and see...

hawkeye wrote:Its not just about strength and fitness. Nole does not "own" Nadal. However I realise I won't be able to convince you of that so we shall just have to wait and see...

I think the one you will really have a hard time to convince is Nadal. He's lost 9 of the last 11 matches and the 2 he won had an exhausted Djoko and one without contact lens.

Hawkeye, currently 6 straight wins is ownership. But it doesn't mean it will always stay that one sided. I think Nadal can get more competitive but don't believe he will ever get back to even or be in control of this rivlary again. Nadal will need a significant improvement of his serve and better tactical mix with a bit more variety and aggressiveness in his shot selection.

Manoj, I disagree, unless Novak has serious injury problems I don't see Nadal "turning the tables" in a strange way even when Novak was losing regularly to Nadal you never felt that Nadal was comfortable against Novak. I always felt that the wins Nadal had late 08, 09 and early 10 against Novak was more because of a slump in Novak's serve and confidence. Even when Novak was losing I felt this rivalry was on his racquet.

As to your points on Federer, I disagree can't see Roger getting more than one more slam and even that seems 50/50. So I don't know if this would qualify as a more even distribution of slams. Maybe if JMDP and Andy can get it together then we could see a more balanced distribution of slams but i can't see Roger consistently winning multiple slams from here. I think he probably will get to 17 but that is about all we could hope for.

Thanks Socal for taking out time to comment. I am not much of a critical student, but a mere passionate fan of the game in general, with my obvious fanboy biases very much in favour of RF. I am sure we will know for sure by year end 2012, what lies in store for Roger's tennis career prospects. If I have to state my own reading of slam possibilities, next year at most two for RN and or Novak, one for Roger and one for an outsider like Andy. One of the top three may go slam less. Your reading-Roger, my belief other way round, that RF shall get one big win. Interesting, hopefully not heart breaking times for me.

Perhaps these two matches serve to illustrate the crossroads that the game of tennis is at at the moment. It's been going down the physical route but as the semi showed perhaps it's not too late to turn back. The worrying thing is though that Djokovic only seems to be beating Nadal by playing like him. Could he have won playing the same way he did in the semis?

socal1976 wrote:Hawkeye, currently 6 straight wins is ownership. But it doesn't mean it will always stay that one sided. I think Nadal can get more competitive but don't believe he will ever get back to even or be in control of this rivlary again. Nadal will need a significant improvement of his serve and better tactical mix with a bit more variety and aggressiveness in his shot selection

I suppose I liken it to Murray beating Djokovic 3 times a row in quick succession (in late 2008 and early 2009). This made many assume that Murray had somehow learnt how to play Djokovic and was the better player. I didn't see it that way and it didn't turn out to be the case. Losing to a player and then having to play them again quite quickly can perhaps mean another loss is more likely. It was unusual to have the same players face each other in 6 almost successive finals. IMO this proved helpful to Djokovic and a big hindrance to Nadal. I havn't seen anything in their games to suggest that the dynamics between the two has changed permanently. Nadal will respond to the challenge. He is too good a player not too.

I do understand that this maybe an argument that I won't be able to win at the moment... But I'm looking forward to seeing if I am correct.

In my tennis withdrawals moments I watched Federer Djokovic match, but not Tenez's choice, i.e. first two sets, but the last56 games, man, that match was sooo sizzling, what a comeback, awesome!
Noe's year is so gd it'll take me the entire off-season to take it all in properly .
To one and only Nole who truly is the best and plays the game like a man

Hawkeye, that is the point in 09 when murray made his surge Novak was having major troubles with his serve. Before that Novak had won the first 4 matches in their rivalry. I really do feel that today's Novak is both a better and fitter athlete and more accomplished ball striker than he was in the past. I agree that Nadal will find away to make the rivalry more competitive. But look at the match Novak and Nadal played on the clay of Madrid in 09. Novak serves a tiny bit better and he wins that match against Rafa. Eventhough he lost he took Rafa places neither man had ever been on clay, maybe with the exception of the Fed/Rafa Rome final. Novak early on his career with his old serve actually played Rafa really well. His serve and fitness weren't there but in the groundstroke rallies and in terms of breaking Rafa even when Novak lost you felt that he more than held his own in these crucial areas of the game.

By the way, I agree Hawkeye that the quick succession of finals 6 of them from spring to the late summer does make the match up appear worse than it is. That is a good point that I concede on.

social. You don't have to convince me how good a player Novak is because I agree he is. That match in Madrid Rafa had no buisines winning. But win it he did. Bit like the 3rd set in this years US final.

Whatever the reasons after the AO Rafa was a shadow of himself for much of 2009. He won on clay maybe helped by reputation as he wasn't playing well. Lost the FO and was shocking at the WTF. Far worse year than this year. His detracters were as usual writing him off.

Rafa and Novak are both quality players but they are human and will have downs as well as ups. I've seen enough to not write either off after a few loses. I can remember Rafa responding to some over the top admiration from some reporter at a press conferance. He said something like "You know I'm never as good as you guys think I am when I'm winning and never as bad as you think when I lose. The truth is somewhere in-between". I agree!

HE, besides the one sided results, don;t you see the technical limitations of Nadal exposed by Djokovic?

This is what we shoudl look at instead of trying to read the stars for future results. It is this technical limitation that was so obvious to me which I was talking about but people were not listening cause Nadal was winning. I knew it was thanks to his superior fitness and now that someone can hold his own physically v Nadal, he is made to look very poor technically for all to see now.

Tenez. In a word no!

IMO both Nadal and Djokovic are technically very good. They can both place the ball anywhere in the court and have no obvious weaknesses. Maybe Djokovic is less good at the net and when he is forced to play up and down the court rather than side to side where he excels. I agree that in their past few matches Djokovic has looked the fitter.

Both players are human and despite being consistant will never be perfect. They will play well and less well and often they will have to play through minor injuries. They are both technically very good but not technically perfect.

I can understand that you may not appreciate Nadals game aesthetically but I struggle to to see a big technical weakness in it.

Hawkeye, agree with you to an extent, winning turns every sinner into a saint, and losing turns every saint into a sinner. Often the margins at the top are thinner than what the scoreline appears. But here is where i differ in opinion with you. Even when Rafa was beating Novak is more because of Novak's service and fitness issues than with Rafa controlling the matchup. Early on in their careers Novak actually was on pretty even footing with Nadal and was much better on hardcourt. But he would lose to Nadal because of a lack of fitness, a terrible sharapova like serving slump, and a lack of poise and maturity. When he went into this serving doldrums in 09 all of a sudden what had been an even matchup with Rafa became terribly one sided.


I think Rafa will find a few wrinkles to throw at Novak to give him more trouble, but I don't believe Rafa can ever get dominance back or even get back to 50/50 because new Novak is a nightmare matchup for him. That being said if Novak suffers serious injuries, burnout, or goes into a nosedive in confidence then we could get back to a situation where Rafa has the upperhand. But a relatively healthy and focused Novak, I think will have the edge over Rafa in this matchup from here on out.

If a new player comes along who has superior fitness to Nadal and can rally with him the same will happen.

Djokovic brings a much more positive game to Federer because he needs to; against Nadal he knows it's just a case of running him down. Nadal knows it too because he panics and his u/e counts soars.

This is how the game is going. It will become incredibly boring and the calls for 3 set matches, earlier tie breaks, no advantage games etc will grow (from the players) because they know they can't handle it long term.

Even Davydenko who is half the size and stamina of Nadal make him look average.

HE, There is no point being technically good if yuo need more time see the ball and apply your power. That's Nadal 's problem. As BB says, he can't attack and keep the UEs down. Simple, basic eye/hand coordination issue! A bit like Roddick v Federer.

They can both place the ball anywhere in the court

If Nadal, can, how come he doesn't place the ball where Djoko isn't? That's what Federer can do but Nadal can't. Poorer technique and poorer eye/hand coordination.

Tenez. Davydenko on his day can make many players look average. Players always look very beatable when they're losing. Nadal is no exception. He is not unbeatable. He does have the highest win loss ratio of all current players though so he is not that easy to beat...

Nadals winners nearly always outnumber his UE so I'm not sure what you mean about him being unable to attack without keeping errors down. There are players that hit a lot more winners than Nadal but inevitably they hit loads more errors. Often more errors than winners. Its more "hit or miss". That has less to do with technique and more to do with style and tactics. IMO Nadal often plays within his comfort zone and plays safe. Its fun watching him get pushed as its only then that he plays more attacking tennis.

Do you think it requires less hand eye coordination to hit top spin than flat. I dont think so. Anyway Nadal is pretty good at hitting the full repertoire of shots. Topspin, slice or flat.

Nadal can place the ball anywhere in the court. In some matches it will be difficult to always place the ball where Djokovic isn't when Djokovic is playing so well that he's everywhere! Not all matches will be the same.

I do agree that Nadal hasn't looked particularly fit lately. Have no reason to believe this loss of fitness will be permanent.

I know I have little chance of changing your opinion about Nadal. Sometimes its fun to have villains as well as heroes...

Hawkeye, spot on, I have seen Nadal crank flat forehands about as hard as anyone on tour JMDP included. And the point that you make in relation to Nadal's winners/errors ration is similar to what I have been saying on the subject. Nadal's style assures that he winners safely, meaning that he is one of the few players in the game who routinely hits more winners than errors, and by a wide margin.

As for Davydenko, he is a very talented and aggressive ball striker when his game is on he can make a lot of players look ordinary. But that is the whole problem with playing that way, that it is a difficult style to replicate over and over again. When Davy is misfiring he looks extremely ordinary.

I also agree that takes a great deal of skill to generate the racquet head speed to hit a 5000 rpm forehand. Others on this site think that it is actually very easy to do it.

Its fun watching him get pushed as its only then that he plays more attacking tennis.

Indeed, if only the imploding 'braveheart' knew when he had to up the ante.