Can Wales beat South Africa?

Can Wales beat South Africa in their first game at the world cup?

Wales have come close on many occasions since their only victory over them in 1999. It seems to be a psychological blip even worse than the one that prevented Wales from beating England for all those years.

South Africas results haven't been the best of late & only managed to beat a 2nd string NZ side yesterday.

I think Wales can do it, but it will require a lot of things to go right for them. If the Welsh lineout is anything like it was against England or Argentina then we have no hope. Why they don't just throw it to the first man to secure possession is beyond me? The front 5 will need to be extremely aggressive & we will need at least SOME level of creativity between the centres. We can be confident in our back row. I think we should keep faith in Faletau he is the man in possession of the 8 shirt & he is full of enthusiasm and likes to go forward. Full back is going to be an extremely difficult decision as we will need someone who can cope with the boot of Francois Steyn. I would probably go with Preistland at 15 as he seems the most composed at the moment.

Even though I think that Hook should start at 10, we have serious problems in the centres. Defensively we are good, but there doesn't seem to be enough intelligence or spark between Davies & Roberts at the moment (Although Davies's inside pass to North yesterday was sublime). You would want someone like Hook or Henson at 12 & now we don't even have Henson. I think Roberts is more effective at 13 so I would want to see this midfield...

IF HOOK STARTS AT 10

10. HOOK
12. DAVIES
13. ROBERTS

IF JONES STARTS AT 10

10. JONES
12. HOOK
13. ROBERTS

I definitely want to see North brought in as much as possible, running angles or acting as another outside centre. He is a big weapon.

Sorry but no. Throw that game and target the others.

South Africa are on a completely different level to Wales.

South Africa are beatable and we should have beaten them on the last two occasions the sides played each other,
Yes of course it's going to be a tough game and we will need to play at our best but thinking that South Africa are on a different level is stretching it a bit.

They're beatable, but not by Wales I'm afraid. "should have beaten them" is my point exactly. Even against weak bok line ups with nothing much to play for, they did enough to turn over Wales at home.

Sorry, but it's time for reality. Wales won't be even close to good enough to trouble SA.

I sill believe South Africa are beatable and the Welsh players will know this.
But the reality is we can debate this till the cows come home but we will have to wait until the 11/09/2011 to find out the outcome.

After watching the boks game last night, Yes we can beat them. They are at the moment the most vulnerable of teh southern nations. Thats a sad indictment of PDV because SA should be capable of winning the World Cup. However they look short of confidence, some players looked off the pace and whist it was a good win, they should have spanked that NZ side yesterday.

The Bok scrum is not as powerful as it was four years ago but Wales lineout is a real issue because teams know they can kick long and put pressure on our defensive throw. SA will steal some of our lineout ball. so to win we have to keep the ball in play, move their big pack around, not kick for touch and make sure the chase is spot on.

Defences win world cups, Australia in 99 England in 03 and SA in 07 all had the best defences in the tournament and this year is going to be no different.

Why should SA have spanked NZ yesterday? The NZ side yesterday would put Wales on their bums. SA are just to powerful and experienced for Wales. Sorry, but it's just a fact.

Aquestioin for boks supporters I guess, Is the SA camp a happy place, it just doesnt seem so to me?

Grey honestly that NZ side were sent over like lambs to he slaughter with a large number of squad players. SA had pretty close to their best team out.

Even so the Boks were toothless in attack. They won that game because of outstanding defence and because NZ without Carter and McCaw are not the same team. had tehy played the Blacks best team then I think it would have been a horrible day at the office for the boks.

05/06/2010 14:30 Wales 31 - 34 South Africa Millennium Stadium
13/11/2010 14:30 Wales 25 - 29 South Africa Millennium Stadium

Last two encounters have been close and there is no reason the next one should not be either.
Once more I shall say that South Africa are there for the taking but we will have to play better than we have done recently.
The South Africans wont underestimate Wales they know they will have a game on their hands.
I seem to remember on the old 606 said some posters said that South Africa would thrash Scotland just goes to show how wrong some people can be.

TheGreyGhost wrote:They're beatable, but not by Wales I'm afraid. "should have beaten them" is my point exactly. Even against weak bok line ups with nothing much to play for, they did enough to turn over Wales at home.

Sorry, but it's time for reality. Wales won't be even close to good enough to trouble SA.

So what do you think the margin will be in favour of the Boks if Wales are not "even close to good enough to trouble SA?"

Must be a fairly hefty one.

Is it any wonder Wales gets the reputation as "village idiots of world rugby".

We always hear this same talk teams are "there for the taking" if only wales can "play better than ever before". Then the game rolls around and Wales are crushed.

Sorry, but the question is, can Wales win? the answer is NO.

Outside of Cardiff I can't see Wales beating them so even though the WC game is on a 'neutral' ground I think SA by around 10-15.

First things first, great article Krusty, when you take your time and think about the points your trying to make, you can put a great topic together

I agree with pretty much all your points as well. Faletau's work rate is amazing, he tackles and makes the hard yards, he lost a couple of balls in the Cardiff / England game but he is still very young and learning, in my mind he's our best bet at Number 8. Faletau, Lydiate and Warburton form a brilliant back row, very mobile, they tackle like beasts there isn't a better young back row in the world at the moment.

You make a good point about Hook also, he has done really well at outside half, but Jonathan Davies isn't playing too well and perhaps Hook might be better used at center. What I will say is when Wales do play pacific Islands teams and especially Fiji they have tended to target Hook as a defensive weakness and Seru Rabeni and Seremaia Bai smashed through him on far too many occasions in the 2007 World Cup. In 2010 is was Hook again who missed Center Albert Vulivuli to power through and score their second try.

Preistland has been fantastic and got the line moving in his games against England, so maybe he does deserve a run there, but Hook in the center might be too much of a risk, brute force, control and defense might be better this time.

Cymroglan wrote:05/06/2010 14:30 Wales 31 - 34 South Africa Millennium Stadium
13/11/2010 14:30 Wales 25 - 29 South Africa Millennium Stadium

Last two encounters have been close and there is no reason the next one should not be either.
Once more I shall say that South Africa are there for the taking but we will have to play better than we have done recently.
The South Africans wont underestimate Wales they know they will have a game on their hands.
I seem to remember on the old 606 said some posters said that South Africa would thrash Scotland just goes to show how wrong some people can be.

How did Wales get on against SA the last twice they played in SA ? Didn't they get comfortably beaten ?

I think the Boks are going to be much harder to beat in the next couple of months than they have been for the last couple of years. Anything is possible, but Wales will be up against it.

i believe the last time wales played SA in SA it was 2008 and there were pretty big margins in defeat,

i think we will run them close but as with all southern hemisphere nations they will have that extra gear for moments in games to get points on the board whereas we will miss chances to score, saying that ive voted for SA by 10-15

nottins wrote:

Cymroglan wrote:05/06/2010 14:30 Wales 31 - 34 South Africa Millennium Stadium
13/11/2010 14:30 Wales 25 - 29 South Africa Millennium Stadium

Last two encounters have been close and there is no reason the next one should not be either.
Once more I shall say that South Africa are there for the taking but we will have to play better than we have done recently.
The South Africans wont underestimate Wales they know they will have a game on their hands.
I seem to remember on the old 606 said some posters said that South Africa would thrash Scotland just goes to show how wrong some people can be.

How did Wales get on against SA the last twice they played in SA ? Didn't they get comfortably beaten ?

The key words were the last two encounters that both sides met it's seems a bit pointless going back as far as 2008

Cymroglan wrote:The key words were the last two encounters that both sides met it's seems a bit pointless going back as far as 2008

Well the June game didn't really count as South Africa game northern Hemisphere based players a chance didn't they, it was very much a second string and they still blew Wales away.

Cymroglan wrote:

The key words were the last two encounters that both sides met it's seems a bit pointless going back as far as 2008

They still lost the last two encounters though.

TheGreyGhost wrote:Is it any wonder Wales gets the reputation as "village idiots of world rugby".

We always hear this same talk teams are "there for the taking" if only wales can "play better than ever before". Then the game rolls around and Wales are crushed.

Sorry, but the question is, can Wales win? the answer is NO.

We've established you don't think so. You also state that Wales are not even close enough to do so. So one could infer from that assertion that you believe that SA will win quite easily by some margin. True?

I realy cannot see Wales beating South Africa to be honest.

Wales will have to have an almost flawless game regards to the Line out, Scrum, I realy cannot see Wales winning that game.

nottins wrote:

Cymroglan wrote:

The key words were the last two encounters that both sides met it's seems a bit pointless going back as far as 2008

They still lost the last two encounters though.

Yes of course and everybody knows that did anybody say that Wales had won ? I was just letting GG know that South Africa are not that far ahead of Wales judging by the recent encounters. But what is your point

Wales should be pretty confident of beating SA. The Boks have showed nothing but yesterday's ability to kick goals.

It will be close but Wales are the favourites in this group on current form.

SA are very likely on current form to not even qualify from pool d. Their coaches are not retrospective enough to isolate their troubles and turn negatives into positives.

Yesterday they may have beaten a weak ABs side but this is a very tough group and I think there are four very evenly matched sides all with a good chance of qualifying.

maesteg is that a wum?

It is possible ANY team can beat another at some point,it would certainly be great for Wales.
There second win ever versus SA in a RWC,if I were you I`d worry more about Fiji,and Samoa.

GavinDragon wrote:maesteg is that a wum?

No I've been watching a lot of south Africa's recent games and that is my opinion.

fair enough, i dont share your optimism mind! the games you will have been watching are against opponents of much better quality who play the game at a much higher tempo and with greater physicality,

South Africa are a shadow of four years ago. It's easy to diminish Wales, but I'll be disappointed to lose. Wales have the fire power in the front five to put the Bocks on the back foot (as long as Adam starts). The Bocks have injury concerns themselves. Juan Smith is going to be a massive loss for them.

GavinDragon wrote:fair enough, i dont share your optimism mind! the games you will have been watching are against opponents of much better quality who play the game at a much higher tempo and with greater physicality,

Understandably taking that into account, but I definitely fancy our chances. I think the win over the ABs will actually cover up some of the ingredients that SA need to take in to account.

SA did dominate the breakdown but against an ineffective kiwi trio. Against a more well rounded unit that can defend and turn over ball they may have issues.

Then again in many ways SA looked similar to their old selves and that is hugely worrying when your team is in their pool. But they did have a degree of impotency, similar to Englands current form, that is something Wales can take advantage of.

Let's start with the current situation in the springbok camp and then work our way from there.

Yesterday South Africa played a B team All Black side with over 300 caps in the forward pack. There backline had 126 caps between them. In total this run on team had 474 caps between them. Looking at that it is one hell of a B team.

South Africa may not look like scoring tries at the moment, but to the uninformed that may be so, last weekend against australia we fluffed three tries, one where Beast didn't offload, one where Jaque Fourie knocked the ball on in the goal area, and another knock on in the first half by if I remember correctly JP Petersen.

Yesterday the Boks were on attack inside the All Blacks half a number of times, had 5 or more phases 7 times, but their error rate was high.

To beleive they can't score tries against the likes of Wales is simply just foolish.

Let's get to the subject of it being useless to go back to 2008 when Wales visited SA for the last time, I have heard the same argument from ireland, the past don't matter. Well if you don't come to SA, then how can we use any stats for coming here. So our only reference point is the last time you visited our shores.

Let us then go to the two last matches used in this thread as examples.

On the 5th of June 2010, Wales wanted to squeeze in test a week after the super 14 final, SA sent a B team to Wales, 11 of the run on team wasn't first choice, Wales squandered a 16-3 lead to lose the match.

In November last year, we sent an almost A team with 4 non first choice players, and once again Wales squandered a 14 - 3 lead.

Both these matches were at home.

so the best Wales could do against our B team was lose by a few points.

NZ beats our B team by 33 points, Austrlia beats our B team by 19 points.

See where I am going with this?

Just to make matters more interesting, in the past 8 tests we played against NZ, we won 4 and they won 4, can anyone else say that?

So without sounding arrogant or too confident, compare our standard to yours.

that's not arrogant that's just stating facts

Can Wales beat SA?
Yes of course

Will they beat SA?
Probably not, unless we have a stormer, a bit of luck and they play poorly

IronMike wrote:Can Wales beat SA?
Yes of course

Will they beat SA?
Probably not, unless we have a stormer, a bit of luck and they play poorly

I concur, Sir.

As stated previously, yes Wales can beat SA if they play well and SA poorly and the planets are aligned but, in all likelihood, they will have their hands full even with a poorly coached, rusty bok ensemble. In the pressure cooker environment of the RWC under the rugby world's gaze I can't see it happening.

Of course Wales "can" beat the Springboks. Whether we "will" is a different story altogether, as the last few games between the sides have underlined. I will go as far as to say the last two were there for the taking but we bottled up.

It is not, as GG claims, a case of any result being written in stone beforehand. In fact, the SA game is the most important game of the group, not the Fiji or Samoa fixtures. I'm glad we have the Boks first up, it's a case of the hardest being put out of the way early. We should put everything into that, throw the kitchen sink if necessary, for if we pull it off we can continue with the knowledge safely in our hearts that we can beat anyone.

Yep. Except you can't...and won't. Wales won't beat SA first up. so you'll go on with the knowledge safely in your hearts that if you don't beat Fiji and Samoa you'll go out at the pool stage again.

TheGreyGhost wrote:Yep. Except you can't

As I said, wrong.

TheGreyGhost wrote:...and won't

Remains to be seen

I do not share GG's negativity.I would not be surprised at any result to be honest,Win,Lose or Draw.GG appears very dismissive of Wales.We shall see.I hope PdV also takes us lightly!

biltongbek wrote:Let's start with the current situation in the springbok camp and then work our way from there.

Yesterday South Africa played a B team All Black side with over 300 caps in the forward pack. There backline had 126 caps between them. In total this run on team had 474 caps between them. Looking at that it is one hell of a B team.

South Africa may not look like scoring tries at the moment, but to the uninformed that may be so, last weekend against australia we fluffed three tries, one where Beast didn't offload, one where Jaque Fourie knocked the ball on in the goal area, and another knock on in the first half by if I remember correctly JP Petersen.

Yesterday the Boks were on attack inside the All Blacks half a number of times, had 5 or more phases 7 times, but their error rate was high.

To beleive they can't score tries against the likes of Wales is simply just foolish.

Let's get to the subject of it being useless to go back to 2008 when Wales visited SA for the last time, I have heard the same argument from ireland, the past don't matter. Well if you don't come to SA, then how can we use any stats for coming here. So our only reference point is the last time you visited our shores.

Let us then go to the two last matches used in this thread as examples.

On the 5th of June 2010, Wales wanted to squeeze in test a week after the super 14 final, SA sent a B team to Wales, 11 of the run on team wasn't first choice, Wales squandered a 16-3 lead to lose the match.

In November last year, we sent an almost A team with 4 non first choice players, and once again Wales squandered a 14 - 3 lead.

Both these matches were at home.

so the best Wales could do against our B team was lose by a few points.

NZ beats our B team by 33 points, Austrlia beats our B team by 19 points.

See where I am going with this?

Just to make matters more interesting, in the past 8 tests we played against NZ, we won 4 and they won 4, can anyone else say that?

So without sounding arrogant or too confident, compare our standard to yours.

Like wise Wales are not the team SA played last year and to think they are is naive.

maestegmafia wrote:

biltongbek wrote:Let's start with the current situation in the springbok camp and then work our way from there.

Yesterday South Africa played a B team All Black side with over 300 caps in the forward pack. There backline had 126 caps between them. In total this run on team had 474 caps between them. Looking at that it is one hell of a B team.

South Africa may not look like scoring tries at the moment, but to the uninformed that may be so, last weekend against australia we fluffed three tries, one where Beast didn't offload, one where Jaque Fourie knocked the ball on in the goal area, and another knock on in the first half by if I remember correctly JP Petersen.

Yesterday the Boks were on attack inside the All Blacks half a number of times, had 5 or more phases 7 times, but their error rate was high.

To beleive they can't score tries against the likes of Wales is simply just foolish.

Let's get to the subject of it being useless to go back to 2008 when Wales visited SA for the last time, I have heard the same argument from ireland, the past don't matter. Well if you don't come to SA, then how can we use any stats for coming here. So our only reference point is the last time you visited our shores.

Let us then go to the two last matches used in this thread as examples.

On the 5th of June 2010, Wales wanted to squeeze in test a week after the super 14 final, SA sent a B team to Wales, 11 of the run on team wasn't first choice, Wales squandered a 16-3 lead to lose the match.

In November last year, we sent an almost A team with 4 non first choice players, and once again Wales squandered a 14 - 3 lead.

Both these matches were at home.

so the best Wales could do against our B team was lose by a few points.

NZ beats our B team by 33 points, Austrlia beats our B team by 19 points.

See where I am going with this?

Just to make matters more interesting, in the past 8 tests we played against NZ, we won 4 and they won 4, can anyone else say that?

So without sounding arrogant or too confident, compare our standard to yours.

Like wise Wales are not the team SA played last year and to think they are is naive.

This thread as far as i can remember were about South Africa not being the team they were 4 years ago. It was about our performances against Wales and how Wales should have won games. I merely illustrated the difference between Wales' perfomances against our B team and NZ and Australia.

Further I compared the "standard" of where we are in relation to the all Blacks and the fact that over the past 2 years we have a fifty percent win ratio.

If that doesn't prove to you we are better than Wales, then I would suspect nothing will.

Just as a beside, I did agree with another poster that Wales could beat us, never said they can't.

TheGreyGhost wrote:Is it any wonder Wales gets the reputation as "village idiots of world rugby".

We always hear this same talk teams are "there for the taking" if only wales can "play better than ever before". Then the game rolls around and Wales are crushed.

Sorry, but the question is, can Wales win? the answer is NO.

the answer is yes, village idiots? what are you on about seriously. Wales can beat S.A who havent been performing well whereas wales have won last two matches with respectable margins and are high on confidence there is certainly no reason why wales cant beat them espicially when you see how clinical wales have been receantly and how strong their scrum and defence are. only worry is the lineout but i seriously think wales can win- just ebcause S.A are one of the revered SH teams doesnt mean wales suddenly pull up and go nooooo wales cant beat a sh team because that is a load of rubbish.

actually GG is it the fact that S.A beat NZ means that wales cant beat S.A?

Wales will look to emulate the Lions series, be aggressive, assertive and get into their face. Roberts, Phillips, Shane Williams have beaten better Springbok sides than this.

LondonWelsh99 wrote:Wales will look to emulate the Lions series, be aggressive, assertive and get into their face. Roberts, Phillips, Shane Williams have beaten better Springbok sides than this.

Now that i find a little hilarious.

The Lions in 2009 beat a very poor springbok team in the last test.

Wales beat us in 1999. were any of them around in 1999?

Are there any other matches you could refer me to?

Good point but considering that match was in Johannesburg at the end of a pretty tough three match series, this match simply won't be as intense.

LondonWelsh99 wrote:Good point but considering that match was in Johannesburg at the end of a pretty tough three match series, this match simply won't be as intense.

I am confused, you first imply that Phillips, Roberts and Williams have beaten better Springbok sides than this.

By implication you refer to more than once.

you also imply a better Springbok team.

The side the Lions beat was a much poorer team. we played without 6 of our first choice players and John Smit played at tight head.

Now you say the RWC match won't be as intense, when you said "Wales will look to emulate the Lions series, be aggressive, assertive and get into their face", which in my opinion implies that high intensity will be required. On top of that a RWC opener, which by all accounts could decide the group winner?

You are contradicting yourself, Sir.

[quote="biltongbek"
Now that i find a little hilarious.

The Lions in 2009 beat a very poor springbok team in the last test.
[/quote]
i thought that test series was absolutely brilliant, and hats off to S.A for winning it. its abit unfair for you to dismiss that lions team, im still shaking my head how we lost that 2nd test.
Anyway i think if we still had Henson then this game would be very winnable, our backline with him at 12 has a lovely balance to it. but i think with JD2 and JR our attack is the springbok defence wet dream, big boys crashing up the middle. and if we play hook in centre then they gonna crash over him. obv they have all the possession so maybe a couple of counters and George and Shane are away and its Eden park here we come for semis

biltongbek wrote:

maestegmafia wrote:

biltongbek wrote:Let's start with the current situation in the springbok camp and then work our way from there.

Yesterday South Africa played a B team All Black side with over 300 caps in the forward pack. There backline had 126 caps between them. In total this run on team had 474 caps between them. Looking at that it is one hell of a B team.

South Africa may not look like scoring tries at the moment, but to the uninformed that may be so, last weekend against australia we fluffed three tries, one where Beast didn't offload, one where Jaque Fourie knocked the ball on in the goal area, and another knock on in the first half by if I remember correctly JP Petersen.

Yesterday the Boks were on attack inside the All Blacks half a number of times, had 5 or more phases 7 times, but their error rate was high.

To beleive they can't score tries against the likes of Wales is simply just foolish.

Let's get to the subject of it being useless to go back to 2008 when Wales visited SA for the last time, I have heard the same argument from ireland, the past don't matter. Well if you don't come to SA, then how can we use any stats for coming here. So our only reference point is the last time you visited our shores.

Let us then go to the two last matches used in this thread as examples.

On the 5th of June 2010, Wales wanted to squeeze in test a week after the super 14 final, SA sent a B team to Wales, 11 of the run on team wasn't first choice, Wales squandered a 16-3 lead to lose the match.

In November last year, we sent an almost A team with 4 non first choice players, and once again Wales squandered a 14 - 3 lead.

Both these matches were at home.

so the best Wales could do against our B team was lose by a few points.

NZ beats our B team by 33 points, Austrlia beats our B team by 19 points.

See where I am going with this?

Just to make matters more interesting, in the past 8 tests we played against NZ, we won 4 and they won 4, can anyone else say that?

So without sounding arrogant or too confident, compare our standard to yours.

Like wise Wales are not the team SA played last year and to think they are is naive.

This thread as far as i can remember were about South Africa not being the team they were 4 years ago. It was about our performances against Wales and how Wales should have won games. I merely illustrated the difference between Wales' perfomances against our B team and NZ and Australia.

Further I compared the "standard" of where we are in relation to the all Blacks and the fact that over the past 2 years we have a fifty percent win ratio.

If that doesn't prove to you we are better than Wales, then I would suspect nothing will.

Just as a beside, I did agree with another poster that Wales could beat us, never said they can't.

krusty wrote:Can Wales beat South Africa in their first game at the world cup?

Biltong,

You have elaborated, and I've read your facts and stats.

Is South Africa a better team than Wales? Historically undoubtably.

On current form watching both Wales and SAs recent performances SA do not look the better team.

on current form SA have been playing the top two teams in the world and wales have played the 4-5th best

kind of an uneven comparison

kingjohn7 wrote:[quote="biltongbek"
Now that i find a little hilarious.

The Lions in 2009 beat a very poor springbok team in the last test.

i thought that test series was absolutely brilliant, and hats off to S.A for winning it. its abit unfair for you to dismiss that lions team, im still shaking my head how we lost that 2nd test.
Anyway i think if we still had Henson then this game would be very winnable, our backline with him at 12 has a lovely balance to it. but i think with JD2 and JR our attack is the springbok defence wet dream, big boys crashing up the middle. and if we play hook in centre then they gonna crash over him. obv they have all the possession so maybe a couple of counters and George and Shane are away and its Eden park here we come for semis [/quote]

Now could you please explain how i dismissed the Lions?

I used that match because Welshjohn was telling me about the Springbok team then being a better one than the current team.